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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823896 is a reply to message #823891 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 13:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26


Great. So how you all fitting that in for 8.5 mill or less? That's Drai's salary.
Leon's last 5 yrs.
82 GP - 50 - 105
71 GP (covid shut down but won the MVP and scoring title) 43 -110. Over 82, that's a 50-127 pace.
56 GP (covid yr) 31-84 - 45 123 pace
80 GP - 55-110
80 GP - 52 - 128

So if you average it out, over 82 games, he averages 50 goals, 119 pts.

A center to replace part of Drai. You can't replace what he does scoring completely. You are going for a cup so you want a very GOOD second line center so I think expecting 2/3 of his production for a second line center is reasonable. So in the 33 goal, 80 pt range. Schiefele does those numbers and is a good center and only makes 6. Horvat just resigned put up 38-70 and signed for 8.5. So take the middle 7.25 mill, round it off to 7 to replace a good chunk of Leon in a good second line center.

Ceci makes 3.25 mill. I agree, I think they need to upgrade him. He's a top 4 guy on a good deal but he's a #4 in my opinion. I think they need to find a better defender than Ceci for Nurse. I don't think they need a guy that produces a ton of points to play with Nurse. I think a guy like Oleksiak or Larsson are good examples of top 4, very good defending dmen who don't score a ton. Oleksiak makes 4.6, Larsson 4. Take the middle. 4.3 for Ceci's replacement. I don't see how you are getting an upgrade on Ceci for less.

So 7 for the center, 4.3 for the dman in your trade. So 11.3 so far.

First contract player - I assume for Leon you aren't taking some low end guy but a teams high end first contract guy. Round numbers, 900k.

12.2 mill for the center, dman and the first contract player.

Bunting type of player that is an arb guy. If you want an arb guy, I assume he was on ELC;s making squat, had a good year now wants a big raise. So maybe 1.5 mill to be low end? That's twice league min.

So now we are up to 13.7 and I would say that's being conservative to get all these good players on all these not overpriced deals. So Leon is gone and his 8.5 mill. Ceci I assume is gone. You have his replacement already so maybe you dump him for picks. So you are up to 11.75. Now you have to clear off another 2 mill min of contract to make your trade work.

So who else goes?

Nurse, Nuge, Yammo, Ceci, Foegele, Campbell. A lot of options and a lot of ways to get better and cheaper. Selling high and moving on early are among the best. But don't worry about that, you're missing the forest for the trees.

The Oilers, should they trade Draisaitl, do not need to replace his offense. Honestly, they'd be better of if Draisaitl and McDavid didn't replace their own offense. The Oilers don't need to lead the league in GF by 20 while being middle in the pack in GA. If you look at the teams that scored 3.5 goals / game at were +30 or better on differential I think you'll see something of a sweat spot. Remember, they've shown they cannot rely on their scoring or their power play in the playoffs. Once the Oilers decide what they want to be they can figure out who gets them there.

Thinking about it, I think the best path forward is keeping the core for two years and figuring out how to make them score 40 fewer goals.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824058 is a reply to message #823896 ]
Wed, 31 May 2023 12:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
tardigrade81 is currently offline tardigrade81
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Is hockey back?

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #824059 is a reply to message #824058 ]
Wed, 31 May 2023 12:56 Go to previous message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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tardigrade81 wrote on Wed, 31 May 2023 12:06

Is hockey back?

It never ends. I actually wished the NHL season finished a little earlier so I could passively pay more attention to the Centennial, Allan, and Memorial Cup. I also wish Brooks and Spruce didn't wholly own and operate the AJHL, but that's a different problem.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823873 is a reply to message #823864 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.


The logic is pretty easy:

- the goaltending wasn't good enough.
- Jack Campbell probably can't be moved, but may be good enough to play a backup role still.
- If you're not playing Campbell, then either A) you have to park him in the minors with big cap consequences, B) buy him out, also with major cap consequences, or C) trade a bunch of assets with him in order to get someone else to take the contract - which would likely be massive ask given how much time he has left on his deal.
- Skinner will have significant value coming off a rookie season where he is now the odds-on favourite to win the Calder Trophy. Not only could we trade him, but we could probably get a relatively high price for him. We should know the goalie the well as possible and that should give us a better sense than most whether his problems in the post-season are easily curable.

We've seen before that some goalies that look like world-beaters early get figured out by the league's shooters. I don't feel like Skinner is a slam dunk hall of famer so if we can get someone who has a little more consistent pedigree, then I would absolutely consider it.

I feel that our goaltending was a big part of our failures this year - we likely win the Western Conference in the regular season, and don't go out with a whimper in the post-season if we had more consistency. Given that, status quo seems a dangerous thing to just accept.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823877 is a reply to message #823873 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.


The logic is pretty easy:

- the goaltending wasn't good enough.
- Jack Campbell probably can't be moved, but may be good enough to play a backup role still.
- If you're not playing Campbell, then either A) you have to park him in the minors with big cap consequences, B) buy him out, also with major cap consequences, or C) trade a bunch of assets with him in order to get someone else to take the contract - which would likely be massive ask given how much time he has left on his deal.
- Skinner will have significant value coming off a rookie season where he is now the odds-on favourite to win the Calder Trophy. Not only could we trade him, but we could probably get a relatively high price for him. We should know the goalie the well as possible and that should give us a better sense than most whether his problems in the post-season are easily curable.

We've seen before that some goalies that look like world-beaters early get figured out by the league's shooters. I don't feel like Skinner is a slam dunk hall of famer so if we can get someone who has a little more consistent pedigree, then I would absolutely consider it.

I feel that our goaltending was a big part of our failures this year - we likely win the Western Conference in the regular season, and don't go out with a whimper in the post-season if we had more consistency. Given that, status quo seems a dangerous thing to just accept.

I agree that Skinner wasn't good in the playoffs. In my opinion, I think part of it was he played too much. He played 12 games in a row. He's never done that before. I keep hearing goalie guys saying they think teams need to stop deciding on 1 guy in the playoffs when they don't do it in the regular season. The league is going towards a tandem. So if during the year you are used to only getting 2-3 starts in a row max, expecting a goalie to go 12 in a row isn't realistic. Secondly, he is a rookie. The playoffs are another animal. It can be a tall ask for a rookie position player in the playoffs, asking a rookie goalie is a lot. I expect him to use the fact he wasn't that good as fuel and he will be better.

That being said, if there is a better goalie out there that is cheaper than Skinner, then sure trade him. I am not a goalie expert. The position seems to be the hardest one to judge. Who say goalie BOB going off after 4 pretty mediocre to bad years? But it's happening right now. So if you have a list of better goalies that make less than Skinner, list away please.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823890 is a reply to message #823877 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05


I agree that Skinner wasn't good in the playoffs. In my opinion, I think part of it was he played too much. He played 12 games in a row. He's never done that before. I keep hearing goalie guys saying they think teams need to stop deciding on 1 guy in the playoffs when they don't do it in the regular season. The league is going towards a tandem. So if during the year you are used to only getting 2-3 starts in a row max, expecting a goalie to go 12 in a row isn't realistic. Secondly, he is a rookie. The playoffs are another animal. It can be a tall ask for a rookie position player in the playoffs, asking a rookie goalie is a lot. I expect him to use the fact he wasn't that good as fuel and he will be better.

That being said, if there is a better goalie out there that is cheaper than Skinner, then sure trade him. I am not a goalie expert. The position seems to be the hardest one to judge. Who say goalie BOB going off after 4 pretty mediocre to bad years? But it's happening right now. So if you have a list of better goalies that make less than Skinner, list away please.


Well, I was firmly of the opinion we should play the two guys almost 50/50 down the stretch ( http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=msg&th=48675&pr evloaded=1&rid=1325&SQ=07472d6bd827134772988c3e77962 3fe&start=30. It definitely COULD be part of the problem. Ideally, the Oilers would have the most insight on that, and understand what went wrong - was it mental and physical fatigue? Is that an issue to be managed or that CAN be managed in the future? Is there something that Vegas (and to an extent Los Angeles) figured out about Skinner's play that could be improved upon easily?

Skookum's idea of an all-encompassing pursuit of excellence in operations would include things like this. Sadly, I don't think exists in the firm, and I suspect we're at a complete loss as to what happened. I think kr55 is likely correct as well, and our scouting of goaltending is suspect at best. We don't even know who the good ones to pursue are.

Are their good options available? Certainly. As pointed out, Adin Hill was #4 or 5 on the depth chart in Vegas. Filip Gustavsson probably got some votes for the Vezina - he was dealt last year for Cam Talbot straight up. Georgiev was traded for two thirds and a fifth last summer. Francouz was a cheap trade pick-up a couple years ago. Freddie Andersen was a low-attention free agent signing. Korpisalo played decent for the Kings in the playoffs against us.

There's a lot of options every year (plus, you know, some teams actually adequately fill the pipeline with real goalie prospects too). And so if you have a portion of your scouting resources dedicated to looking at goalies at both the amateur and pro level, then maybe you aren't left feeling at the end of each year that goalies are voodoo and you just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823894 is a reply to message #823890 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 12:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05


I agree that Skinner wasn't good in the playoffs. In my opinion, I think part of it was he played too much. He played 12 games in a row. He's never done that before. I keep hearing goalie guys saying they think teams need to stop deciding on 1 guy in the playoffs when they don't do it in the regular season. The league is going towards a tandem. So if during the year you are used to only getting 2-3 starts in a row max, expecting a goalie to go 12 in a row isn't realistic. Secondly, he is a rookie. The playoffs are another animal. It can be a tall ask for a rookie position player in the playoffs, asking a rookie goalie is a lot. I expect him to use the fact he wasn't that good as fuel and he will be better.

That being said, if there is a better goalie out there that is cheaper than Skinner, then sure trade him. I am not a goalie expert. The position seems to be the hardest one to judge. Who say goalie BOB going off after 4 pretty mediocre to bad years? But it's happening right now. So if you have a list of better goalies that make less than Skinner, list away please.


Well, I was firmly of the opinion we should play the two guys almost 50/50 down the stretch ( http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=msg&th=48675&pr evloaded=1&rid=1325&SQ=07472d6bd827134772988c3e77962 3fe&start=30. It definitely COULD be part of the problem. Ideally, the Oilers would have the most insight on that, and understand what went wrong - was it mental and physical fatigue? Is that an issue to be managed or that CAN be managed in the future? Is there something that Vegas (and to an extent Los Angeles) figured out about Skinner's play that could be improved upon easily?

Skookum's idea of an all-encompassing pursuit of excellence in operations would include things like this. Sadly, I don't think exists in the firm, and I suspect we're at a complete loss as to what happened. I think kr55 is likely correct as well, and our scouting of goaltending is suspect at best. We don't even know who the good ones to pursue are.

Are their good options available? Certainly. As pointed out, Adin Hill was #4 or 5 on the depth chart in Vegas. Filip Gustavsson probably got some votes for the Vezina - he was dealt last year for Cam Talbot straight up. Georgiev was traded for two thirds and a fifth last summer. Francouz was a cheap trade pick-up a couple years ago. Freddie Andersen was a low-attention free agent signing. Korpisalo played decent for the Kings in the playoffs against us.

There's a lot of options every year (plus, you know, some teams actually adequately fill the pipeline with real goalie prospects too). And so if you have a portion of your scouting resources dedicated to looking at goalies at both the amateur and pro level, then maybe you aren't left feeling at the end of each year that goalies are voodoo and you just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

So you know for certain that all the guys you listed are all going to be better than Skinner next year and for years to come and they will come in cheaper than Skinner? Because it makes zero sense to trade Skinner if they are going to give you less goaltending for more money.

I know we basically don't agree on anything but I assume at least we can agree if you are trading Skinner you are bringing in a guy who is consistently better than him and doesn't grossly cost you more.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823897 is a reply to message #823894 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 15:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:38

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05


I agree that Skinner wasn't good in the playoffs. In my opinion, I think part of it was he played too much. He played 12 games in a row. He's never done that before. I keep hearing goalie guys saying they think teams need to stop deciding on 1 guy in the playoffs when they don't do it in the regular season. The league is going towards a tandem. So if during the year you are used to only getting 2-3 starts in a row max, expecting a goalie to go 12 in a row isn't realistic. Secondly, he is a rookie. The playoffs are another animal. It can be a tall ask for a rookie position player in the playoffs, asking a rookie goalie is a lot. I expect him to use the fact he wasn't that good as fuel and he will be better.

That being said, if there is a better goalie out there that is cheaper than Skinner, then sure trade him. I am not a goalie expert. The position seems to be the hardest one to judge. Who say goalie BOB going off after 4 pretty mediocre to bad years? But it's happening right now. So if you have a list of better goalies that make less than Skinner, list away please.


Well, I was firmly of the opinion we should play the two guys almost 50/50 down the stretch ( http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=msg&th=48675&pr evloaded=1&rid=1325&SQ=07472d6bd827134772988c3e77962 3fe&start=30. It definitely COULD be part of the problem. Ideally, the Oilers would have the most insight on that, and understand what went wrong - was it mental and physical fatigue? Is that an issue to be managed or that CAN be managed in the future? Is there something that Vegas (and to an extent Los Angeles) figured out about Skinner's play that could be improved upon easily?

Skookum's idea of an all-encompassing pursuit of excellence in operations would include things like this. Sadly, I don't think exists in the firm, and I suspect we're at a complete loss as to what happened. I think kr55 is likely correct as well, and our scouting of goaltending is suspect at best. We don't even know who the good ones to pursue are.

Are their good options available? Certainly. As pointed out, Adin Hill was #4 or 5 on the depth chart in Vegas. Filip Gustavsson probably got some votes for the Vezina - he was dealt last year for Cam Talbot straight up. Georgiev was traded for two thirds and a fifth last summer. Francouz was a cheap trade pick-up a couple years ago. Freddie Andersen was a low-attention free agent signing. Korpisalo played decent for the Kings in the playoffs against us.

There's a lot of options every year (plus, you know, some teams actually adequately fill the pipeline with real goalie prospects too). And so if you have a portion of your scouting resources dedicated to looking at goalies at both the amateur and pro level, then maybe you aren't left feeling at the end of each year that goalies are voodoo and you just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

So you know for certain that all the guys you listed are all going to be better than Skinner next year and for years to come and they will come in cheaper than Skinner? Because it makes zero sense to trade Skinner if they are going to give you less goaltending for more money.

I know we basically don't agree on anything but I assume at least we can agree if you are trading Skinner you are bringing in a guy who is consistently better than him and doesn't grossly cost you more.


If it were me running the team, I would want to have staff dedicated to figuring out what goalies could give me the most consistent results. Everyone is going to have a bad game now and then, but I'd be very concerned about a month-long meltdown from my supposed goalie of the future. With goalies, their stats aren't easily separated from their team's numbers so I think you need a scouting department that looks beyond the superficial numbers. You'll want to understand - are someone's numbers under-valued due to playing behind a bad team and facing too many high quality chances? Is someone's numbers boosted because they play on a good team that suppresses second and third chances? For that matter, is it Skinner to blame for the playoffs? Or did subtle changes from opposition exploit weaknesses in the system which they exploited to great effect? I think there was some of that for sure, although I felt that Skinner was clearly not good enough either. I suppose at least he didn't let in any shots from the far zone.

The goalies I mentioned in the previous post are all probably not available now, having already landed on their teams. They're just an example to show that the thought that goalies are hard to find and expensive to acquire is not always so. There's lots out there and teams have limited spots, so you just need to figure out who's under-valued for what they
can bring. We have to find the next guy - and that takes a little more work. The fact is, if we have two back-up goalies, we probably can't win a Cup with that. Are you willing to risk the last for sure year of McDavid & Draisaitl on "Skinner probably gets better" or "Campbell can't be worse, right?"

I wouldn't - and if I can get an all-star (a real all-star, not one elected by the fans), then I don't care if he's more expensive. I can cut other places to make it work.

In other controversial moves, I might look at selling high on Evander Kane too. I think he's a poor passer, lacks discipline at key moments, and can be pretty ambivalent in his own zone, and I think he has done a good job keeping his nose clean while building a bit of a reputation as a pugnacious top-line guy. If someone was willing to offer me something decent, I'd definitely be open to it. I caveat that by saying we need a top-six winger already, so trading him makes that need up to two - but maybe if the price was right I'd deal him in a second while his value is likely near its peak.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823901 is a reply to message #823897 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 19:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 15:36

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:38

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05


I agree that Skinner wasn't good in the playoffs. In my opinion, I think part of it was he played too much. He played 12 games in a row. He's never done that before. I keep hearing goalie guys saying they think teams need to stop deciding on 1 guy in the playoffs when they don't do it in the regular season. The league is going towards a tandem. So if during the year you are used to only getting 2-3 starts in a row max, expecting a goalie to go 12 in a row isn't realistic. Secondly, he is a rookie. The playoffs are another animal. It can be a tall ask for a rookie position player in the playoffs, asking a rookie goalie is a lot. I expect him to use the fact he wasn't that good as fuel and he will be better.

That being said, if there is a better goalie out there that is cheaper than Skinner, then sure trade him. I am not a goalie expert. The position seems to be the hardest one to judge. Who say goalie BOB going off after 4 pretty mediocre to bad years? But it's happening right now. So if you have a list of better goalies that make less than Skinner, list away please.


Well, I was firmly of the opinion we should play the two guys almost 50/50 down the stretch ( http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=msg&th=48675&pr evloaded=1&rid=1325&SQ=07472d6bd827134772988c3e77962 3fe&start=30. It definitely COULD be part of the problem. Ideally, the Oilers would have the most insight on that, and understand what went wrong - was it mental and physical fatigue? Is that an issue to be managed or that CAN be managed in the future? Is there something that Vegas (and to an extent Los Angeles) figured out about Skinner's play that could be improved upon easily?

Skookum's idea of an all-encompassing pursuit of excellence in operations would include things like this. Sadly, I don't think exists in the firm, and I suspect we're at a complete loss as to what happened. I think kr55 is likely correct as well, and our scouting of goaltending is suspect at best. We don't even know who the good ones to pursue are.

Are their good options available? Certainly. As pointed out, Adin Hill was #4 or 5 on the depth chart in Vegas. Filip Gustavsson probably got some votes for the Vezina - he was dealt last year for Cam Talbot straight up. Georgiev was traded for two thirds and a fifth last summer. Francouz was a cheap trade pick-up a couple years ago. Freddie Andersen was a low-attention free agent signing. Korpisalo played decent for the Kings in the playoffs against us.

There's a lot of options every year (plus, you know, some teams actually adequately fill the pipeline with real goalie prospects too). And so if you have a portion of your scouting resources dedicated to looking at goalies at both the amateur and pro level, then maybe you aren't left feeling at the end of each year that goalies are voodoo and you just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

So you know for certain that all the guys you listed are all going to be better than Skinner next year and for years to come and they will come in cheaper than Skinner? Because it makes zero sense to trade Skinner if they are going to give you less goaltending for more money.

I know we basically don't agree on anything but I assume at least we can agree if you are trading Skinner you are bringing in a guy who is consistently better than him and doesn't grossly cost you more.


If it were me running the team, I would want to have staff dedicated to figuring out what goalies could give me the most consistent results. Everyone is going to have a bad game now and then, but I'd be very concerned about a month-long meltdown from my supposed goalie of the future. With goalies, their stats aren't easily separated from their team's numbers so I think you need a scouting department that looks beyond the superficial numbers. You'll want to understand - are someone's numbers under-valued due to playing behind a bad team and facing too many high quality chances? Is someone's numbers boosted because they play on a good team that suppresses second and third chances? For that matter, is it Skinner to blame for the playoffs? Or did subtle changes from opposition exploit weaknesses in the system which they exploited to great effect? I think there was some of that for sure, although I felt that Skinner was clearly not good enough either. I suppose at least he didn't let in any shots from the far zone.

The goalies I mentioned in the previous post are all probably not available now, having already landed on their teams. They're just an example to show that the thought that goalies are hard to find and expensive to acquire is not always so. There's lots out there and teams have limited spots, so you just need to figure out who's under-valued for what they
can bring. We have to find the next guy - and that takes a little more work. The fact is, if we have two back-up goalies, we probably can't win a Cup with that. Are you willing to risk the last for sure year of McDavid & Draisaitl on "Skinner probably gets better" or "Campbell can't be worse, right?"

I wouldn't - and if I can get an all-star (a real all-star, not one elected by the fans), then I don't care if he's more expensive. I can cut other places to make it work.

In other controversial moves, I might look at selling high on Evander Kane too. I think he's a poor passer, lacks discipline at key moments, and can be pretty ambivalent in his own zone, and I think he has done a good job keeping his nose clean while building a bit of a reputation as a pugnacious top-line guy. If someone was willing to offer me something decent, I'd definitely be open to it. I caveat that by saying we need a top-six winger already, so trading him makes that need up to two - but maybe if the price was right I'd deal him in a second while his value is likely near its peak.




I can get behind moving Kane. I love what he brings to the team, but he wasn’t the best passer with two healthy wrists. His passing is no longer just subpar. It’s play killing bad.


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823869 is a reply to message #823860 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 10:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
smyth260 is currently offline smyth260
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I also wouldn't trade Draisaitl, unless it's for an elite D-man of same age or younger coming our way. Don't think NYR is trading Adam Fox anytime soon.

I wouldn't trade Draisaitl on his last year either, even if he didn't want to extend

The Oilers should take their two shots at the cup with his 2 years left. If they can't win with Connor and Leon, it won't get easier with Connor and some Alex Tuch package for Leon. Take your best run at it for the 2 years you have.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823871 is a reply to message #823869 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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smyth260 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:06

I also wouldn't trade Draisaitl, unless it's for an elite D-man of same age or younger coming our way. Don't think NYR is trading Adam Fox anytime soon.

I wouldn't trade Draisaitl on his last year either, even if he didn't want to extend

The Oilers should take their two shots at the cup with his 2 years left. If they can't win with Connor and Leon, it won't get easier with Connor and some Alex Tuch package for Leon. Take your best run at it for the 2 years you have.

Leon is a top 10, realistically top 5 player in the world. So if you could get a young, top 10 dman in the conversation for norris every year Dman, then yes, you could look at a Leon trade. So I am talking. Fox, Makar, McAvoy, Heiskanen, Dahlin. Dmen who are already very, very good and who are 26 and under. Those few would be able the only ones I would consider as equal value back.

When I said in another comment you lose a Leon trade every time, I never considered a team would trade you one of the ones I listed above because it would be really stupid on their part.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823886 is a reply to message #823871 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jay is currently offline Jay
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32

smyth260 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:06

I also wouldn't trade Draisaitl, unless it's for an elite D-man of same age or younger coming our way. Don't think NYR is trading Adam Fox anytime soon.

I wouldn't trade Draisaitl on his last year either, even if he didn't want to extend

The Oilers should take their two shots at the cup with his 2 years left. If they can't win with Connor and Leon, it won't get easier with Connor and some Alex Tuch package for Leon. Take your best run at it for the 2 years you have.

Leon is a top 10, realistically top 5 player in the world. So if you could get a young, top 10 dman in the conversation for norris every year Dman, then yes, you could look at a Leon trade. So I am talking. Fox, Makar, McAvoy, Heiskanen, Dahlin. Dmen who are already very, very good and who are 26 and under. Those few would be able the only ones I would consider as equal value back.

When I said in another comment you lose a Leon trade every time, I never considered a team would trade you one of the ones I listed above because it would be really stupid on their part.

No you had it right originally. You aren't winning a trade involving 29. Neverminded that you are also signing up for losing 97 the next year.

I have no problem with the idea of exploring all options and selling when value is high, so the Oilers can explore the idea. Leave the phone on sure - but then focus on things that actually matter because there is no realistic trade involving Draisaitl leaving that improves the team. If you can get prime Chris Pronger signed for the next 5 years then sure but none of the players mentioned here are that.

2022 Makar looked good - but here's a hot take - He's peaked.

McAvoy? Fox?? That would be stupid alright. Not on their part though.

Moving Skinner should absolutely be explored. I wouldn't move him just for the sake of it but if there's a team that really values him and is willing to give real assets back I would jump at it.

"Initiative comes to thems that wait"

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823887 is a reply to message #823886 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Jay wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:42

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32

smyth260 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:06

I also wouldn't trade Draisaitl, unless it's for an elite D-man of same age or younger coming our way. Don't think NYR is trading Adam Fox anytime soon.

I wouldn't trade Draisaitl on his last year either, even if he didn't want to extend

The Oilers should take their two shots at the cup with his 2 years left. If they can't win with Connor and Leon, it won't get easier with Connor and some Alex Tuch package for Leon. Take your best run at it for the 2 years you have.

Leon is a top 10, realistically top 5 player in the world. So if you could get a young, top 10 dman in the conversation for norris every year Dman, then yes, you could look at a Leon trade. So I am talking. Fox, Makar, McAvoy, Heiskanen, Dahlin. Dmen who are already very, very good and who are 26 and under. Those few would be able the only ones I would consider as equal value back.

When I said in another comment you lose a Leon trade every time, I never considered a team would trade you one of the ones I listed above because it would be really stupid on their part.

No you had it right originally. You aren't winning a trade involving 29. Neverminded that you are also signing up for losing 97 the next year.

I have no problem with the idea of exploring all options and selling when value is high, so the Oilers can explore the idea. Leave the phone on sure - but then focus on things that actually matter because there is no realistic trade involving Draisaitl leaving that improves the team. If you can get prime Chris Pronger signed for the next 5 years then sure but none of the players mentioned here are that.

2022 Makar looked good - but here's a hot take - He's peaked.

McAvoy? Fox?? That would be stupid alright. Not on their part though.

Moving Skinner should absolutely be explored. I wouldn't move him just for the sake of it but if there's a team that really values him and is willing to give real assets back I would jump at it.

I would agree. I think if you trade Leon, you increase your chances of losing McD significantly.

When their contracts are up, I think both McD and Leon can easily get the absolute max cap hit the CBA allows and they probably earn it. But I believe if McD and Leon want to win cups, taking the max cap hits from the Oilers or whoever for their next deals will make that extremely hard for whatever team have them. So if they want to win, they need to take less. Are they both going to starve to death taking 100 mill a piece on their next deals? Of course not. They are already set for life, adding more only continues that plus they both are heavily endorsed and will be for long after their careers. Look at Gretzky. He's still doing commercials in his 60's. So money wise, they will do just fine if they take a few mill less in NHL salary wise.

Call me dreaming but I think McD and Leon will take a little less on their next deals to play together. I could totally see a Kane and Toews thing happening. If Leon is traded, I think McD is either gone or he will max out with the Oilers because he will see it as I am not winning a cup so might as well cash in on dollars and money.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823889 is a reply to message #823887 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?

[Updated on: Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823892 is a reply to message #823889 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18

Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?

Good point. If he won't resign, then walks after his contract, getting nothing for him would suck.

I don't honestly believe you make your team closer to the cup by trading him this year. I don't think you get any closer to the cup if you trade him after next season and of course you are worse off if he leaves.

I am bias because I am a fan of his but I don't see a scenario where you are better off as a team by trading way probable hall of famers when they are in their primes.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823893 is a reply to message #823889 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18

Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?


This is the sad reality. I'm fine with the idea that you can't get enough value in a trade for Draisaitl to make it worth while this summer. That said, exploring some discussions probably makes sense because enxt summer it's suddenly all real. If he's not signing a contract extension, then there's a Sophie's Choice decision to be made...trade him, knowing that you're probably going to struggle not to lose the deal, or keep him and pray that we win the Cup that year before he hits UFA status. If we go in to the season two years from now with Leon in the fold, then you can't really trade him mid-year without possibly ripping the heart out of the team just before McDavid's own renewal decision. The only way I think we get an extension and avoid this issue is if the Oilers play in the Finals next year. Anything less than that and I think there's an excellent chance he looks to play out his deal, or at best, offers a one-year deal to mirror McDavid's horizon.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823898 is a reply to message #823893 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 16:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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If I am the Oilers I am looking at the following:

- Do everything you can to trade Yamo. He's a bottom 6 forward who I think his size is a problem. He doesn't have elite skill so he has to get into the corners and close to the net so he gets bounces around and hurt. He doesn't have a very good shot and while not slow, he's not a burner. You don't need to pay 3.1 mill to have a 3rd line winger score you 12-13 goals, 30 pts and be on the PK. That should cost you 1.5 mill.

- I would look at trading Foegele. He had 13 goals, 28 pts plus a strong playoff even though the pucks didn't go in. I like him more than Yamo because he has more speed, better size and forechecks better in my opinion. But again, I think you can find a player for less than that.

I'd be selling the Hawks HARD on those 2. They have Bedard coming and I don't even think they have enough NHLers in their system to ice a team.

- Make a call on Broberg which impacts Kulak. I think Broberg will be a good dman, I am just not sure his development lines up with where the Oilers are at right now. I think he is 2 yrs away from being a good dman. But if the organization believes he's ready, then he has to have a full time spot and that spot is taken up by Kulak. I like Kulak a lot, I especially like playoff Kulak. If Broberg is full time, I don't think you have have a 2.75 mill 7th dman sitting in the press box.

- Find a way to upgrade Ceci. I think Nurse will excel more if he has a more predictable, defensive partner. Ceci is way too up and down defensively. Nurse has more than enough offense especially considering he gets very little PP time. He needs a partner he knows is sound defensively. When Nurse just worries about his game, he's a very good dman. When he thinks he has to cover for his partner, he falls apart.

- DO not back the brinks truck up to McLeod. I like McLeod, he has all the tools to be a very good 3rd line center but he's not there yet. I think a 3rd line center has to be above 50% on draws. 3rd line centers will get lots of dzone starts. Faceoff wins means you get the puck out. 3rd line centers will be on the PK. A faceoff win means 20 seconds gone on the PP. 3rd line centers should score every 5-6 games. 3rd line centers should forecheck well and finish checks.
McLeod is less than 50% on faceoffs.
He doesn't forecheck well or finish checks. He turns away from checks so dmen don't worry about him.
He goes extremely long stretches without goals. HE scored 7 of his 11 goals in a 12 game stretch and started the season with 3 in 6 games. So in 18 games, he had 10 of his 11. The rest of the season he had 1. He had a 20 game stretch where he had zero goals. He his only other goal was 1 in 12 games and he finished the last 4 regular season games and 12 playoff games, so 16 straight games with zero goals. Your 3rd line center can not have multiple 10+ game stretches without a single goal.

Those would be my main moves.

I would stick with the goalies. I think Skinner will improve. He's improved every single year he has been a pro. I think part of his issue was he was gassed. I said it before. Good goaltending is not easy. A lot of teams in the NHL have big time question marks. I think it would be crazy to walk away from a 24 yr old goalie you have developed who already gives you good back up goaltending and who is signed for a somewhat reasonable number. I think Campbell is poised for a bounce back. His career numbers say he is a lot better than what he showed and at times he showed he can be very good. I like the fact he appears to really, really care and that in my opinion makes for a guy who will be extremely motivated this offseason to make whatever changes is needed. After signing the big deal for the new teams, often times that first year can be rough. I think he will have something to prove next season. I would have it as a pretty even split and at 7.6 mill for your tandem, that isn't expensive.

[Updated on: Tue, 23 May 2023 16:06]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823902 is a reply to message #823893 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 19:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76 is currently offline inverno76
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Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18

Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?


This is the sad reality. I'm fine with the idea that you can't get enough value in a trade for Draisaitl to make it worth while this summer. That said, exploring some discussions probably makes sense because enxt summer it's suddenly all real. If he's not signing a contract extension, then there's a Sophie's Choice decision to be made...trade him, knowing that you're probably going to struggle not to lose the deal, or keep him and pray that we win the Cup that year before he hits UFA status. If we go in to the season two years from now with Leon in the fold, then you can't really trade him mid-year without possibly ripping the heart out of the team just before McDavid's own renewal decision. The only way I think we get an extension and avoid this issue is if the Oilers play in the Finals next year. Anything less than that and I think there's an excellent chance he looks to play out his deal, or at best, offers a one-year deal to mirror McDavid's horizon.


The danger of even shopping 97 or 29 around is it’s going to be leaked. It’s not just the Oilers who have loose lips, but guys like Seravelli and Friedman hear everything. Once the word gets out the walls start to crumble. Fans go nuts. Media Center every article around it and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You only shop one or both of them if you’ve decided to move on. Their names are too big and the rumours will fly and poison the waters even further.

Goalies are voodoo. Elite centres are difficult to find, and the difference between a Cup and a first round exit is almost as much about luck than it is building a 2023 Bruins regular season team.

The bed has been made. The mattress is firm. Sheets are tucked in. Pillows are fluffed, and you’re not buying a new bed anytime soon. You’re just changing the throw pillows looking for the right look.


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823905 is a reply to message #823902 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
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inverno76 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:53

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18

Don't forget, Leon also has a 10 team list for who he'd be willing to go to. So... even if someone offered you a ship filled with gold, it'd still have to be a destination he agreed to.

That being said, If he refused (making it 100% clear he's not sticking around) to sign an extension, I think you have to trade him. Even with only one year remaining, we'd be paid a king's ransom. You can't let him walk away. Imagine how much better off NYI would be if they had moved Tavares for extra pieces. Maybe they'd have Nylander or Reilly. How much better off would they be?


This is the sad reality. I'm fine with the idea that you can't get enough value in a trade for Draisaitl to make it worth while this summer. That said, exploring some discussions probably makes sense because enxt summer it's suddenly all real. If he's not signing a contract extension, then there's a Sophie's Choice decision to be made...trade him, knowing that you're probably going to struggle not to lose the deal, or keep him and pray that we win the Cup that year before he hits UFA status. If we go in to the season two years from now with Leon in the fold, then you can't really trade him mid-year without possibly ripping the heart out of the team just before McDavid's own renewal decision. The only way I think we get an extension and avoid this issue is if the Oilers play in the Finals next year. Anything less than that and I think there's an excellent chance he looks to play out his deal, or at best, offers a one-year deal to mirror McDavid's horizon.


The danger of even shopping 97 or 29 around is it’s going to be leaked. It’s not just the Oilers who have loose lips, but guys like Seravelli and Friedman hear everything. Once the word gets out the walls start to crumble. Fans go nuts. Media Center every article around it and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You only shop one or both of them if you’ve decided to move on. Their names are too big and the rumours will fly and poison the waters even further.

Goalies are voodoo. Elite centres are difficult to find, and the difference between a Cup and a first round exit is almost as much about luck than it is building a 2023 Bruins regular season team.

The bed has been made. The mattress is firm. Sheets are tucked in. Pillows are fluffed, and you’re not buying a new bed anytime soon. You’re just changing the throw pillows looking for the right look.



Two things:

First, if I'm talking Draisaitl, I'm not sending emails. I'm having one-on-one conversations with rival GMs. And if anything comes out, I'm telling people that you get asked about virtually everyone on the team at various points, but you have no intention to trade him. If pressed, I might add that everyone is available at a price, but that for a player like Draisaitl, that price would be very, very high.

Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I mean, you can still always screw it up, if for example your GM calls out your goalie by name in an off-season presser and suggests he is probably not the right solution and then leaks intentionally all the goalies that they almost trade for that summer - ignoring that your goalie was in the top half of starters that year and your team was a lottery-slot organization - but I mean, what's the chance of us doing that again?

By the way, for Skinner, same deal. If I shop him, I'm being very quiet about it, restricting the access within our team to need-to-know only and threatening leakers with dismissal and possible legal action (assuming that most have signed NDAs at some point). And I'm making clear to my rival GM that if it gets out and ends up on 32 Thoughts, I'm going out of my way to burn their organization too, even if it means spreading completely false news to Friedman. We're so used to these things all being public because the Oilers have been the leakiest ship in the NHL for two decades, but it doesn't have to be that way, and it really shouldn't be.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823906 is a reply to message #823905 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823909 is a reply to message #823906 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.


What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.


Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)


I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 10:08]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823912 is a reply to message #823909 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 10:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.


What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.


Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)


I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

I buy into the whole "goalie is voodoo". I just looked at the list of goalies on Capfriendly and I have a hard time picking out 10 goalies who I would without a doubt be confident they will be good most games. Everyone has been talking about how great Oettinger is. He has had a pretty lousy playoff. So who knows.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823913 is a reply to message #823912 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 10:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:16

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.


What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.


Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)


I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

I buy into the whole "goalie is voodoo". I just looked at the list of goalies on Capfriendly and I have a hard time picking out 10 goalies who I would without a doubt be confident they will be good most games. Everyone has been talking about how great Oettinger is. He has had a pretty lousy playoff. So who knows.


Maybe better to say playoff goaltending is voodoo. If you gathered all stats across playoffs you probably find some guys that have been consistently better than others, but for 4-7 game series, basically anything can happen. So many goalies in this league are capable of a 1-8 week hot run, probably 5 times the amount capable of a good regular season with 50+ games. Even Kosko had a crazy hot month or so, and we gave him 4.5Mx3 for it! If you sense you have that, think hard about trying to run with it, especially if the guy you thought was your starter is is playing like zero confidence junk.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 10:22]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823916 is a reply to message #823909 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 10:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.


What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.


Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)


I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

Over the course of the season goaltending reveals itself for sure, but I think over a playoff run it does too. Usually. I just don't think rolling the dice and hoping for luck or Jack Campbell to magically turn it around at max pressure is the best route to success. In hindsight Campbell should have been started in game 6, but that's only because the Oilers lost. I still would have to be convinced that he could handle a start (and we'll never know).

Here's a fun one: would you start Oettinger in Dallas tomorrow or whoever the backup is?

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823917 is a reply to message #823916 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 10:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:25

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.


What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.


Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)


I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

Over the course of the season goaltending reveals itself for sure, but I think over a playoff run it does too. Usually. I just don't think rolling the dice and hoping for luck or Jack Campbell to magically turn it around at max pressure is the best route to success. In hindsight Campbell should have been started in game 6, but that's only because the Oilers lost. I still would have to be convinced that he could handle a start (and we'll never know).

Here's a fun one: would you start Oettinger in Dallas tomorrow or whoever the backup is?


Wedgewood was complete poo for them in the times Oettinger was pulled, so don't think there would be a point with the series basically over. They don't have a better option. Try again next year, hope Oettinger keeps improving, find a better backup for next year.

I'd have started Campbell way before that game 6. Skinner's confidence was looking shaky back in the LA series. Think, at the latest, after his 2nd pull in the Vegas series and I think the 3rd time Campbell looked solid replacing Woodcroft should have taken the hint.

Not that uncommon to change courses with goalies when one guy is struggling bad. We got burned by a team that had their playoffs on the path to an early exit and decided to take a big gamble on changing goalies back in 2006 :( That goalie never again came close to playing like he did that year just to screw us over.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 10:37]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823920 is a reply to message #823917 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 10:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:34



Wedgewood was complete poo for them in the times Oettinger was pulled, so don't think there would be a point with the series basically over. They don't have a better option. Try again next year, hope Oettinger keeps improving, find a better backup for next year.

I'd have started Campbell way before that game 6. Skinner's confidence was looking shaky back in the LA series. Think, at the latest, after his 2nd pull in the Vegas series and I think the 3rd time Campbell looked solid replacing Woodcroft should have taken the hint.

Not that uncommon to change courses with goalies when one guy is struggling bad. We got burned by a team that had their playoffs on the path to an early exit and decided to take a big gamble on changing goalies back in 2006 :( That goalie never again came close to playing like he did that year just to screw us over.

I agree with all of this. Especially 2006 (and Binnington in 2019, poor Bruins).

The funny thing is Skinner and the Oilers played well in games 2 and 4 again VGK. It made everyone want to believe. So it made sense to keep going with him for game 5 then game 6 was the elimination game. Fricken roller coaster man. But you are right, at some point the coach has to decide to get off the coaster or it's his risk in falling off completely.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823923 is a reply to message #823920 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 11:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:44

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:34



Wedgewood was complete poo for them in the times Oettinger was pulled, so don't think there would be a point with the series basically over. They don't have a better option. Try again next year, hope Oettinger keeps improving, find a better backup for next year.

I'd have started Campbell way before that game 6. Skinner's confidence was looking shaky back in the LA series. Think, at the latest, after his 2nd pull in the Vegas series and I think the 3rd time Campbell looked solid replacing Woodcroft should have taken the hint.

Not that uncommon to change courses with goalies when one guy is struggling bad. We got burned by a team that had their playoffs on the path to an early exit and decided to take a big gamble on changing goalies back in 2006 :( That goalie never again came close to playing like he did that year just to screw us over.

I agree with all of this. Especially 2006 (and Binnington in 2019, poor Bruins).

The funny thing is Skinner and the Oilers played well in games 2 and 4 again VGK. It made everyone want to believe. So it made sense to keep going with him for game 5 then game 6 was the elimination game. Fricken roller coaster man. But you are right, at some point the coach has to decide to get off the coaster or it's his risk in falling off completely.


Matt Murray was crazy too. And to gamble on Murray required pushing aside their last cup winning goalie, but it worked, twice. And Murray is just all over the place and a disaster most of the time outside of those 2 runs. The 2nd one, I think after 2 losses to Ottawa in the conf finals, similar spot as us after game 3. Then the Pens gave Fleury the boot and Murray got to run it to the cup.


I'll just say, it's all annoying this year. The league being garbage with officiating and that Pietro/Nurse 1 for 1 crap, saw another obvious high stick ignored in the Canes/Florida series in a key moment. Conf finals on the way to double sweeps with stupid goaltending shows. Maybe some of all the ridiculousness is supposed to be what makes hockey unique and unpredictable and interesting (I don't think the league doing a crap job falls under that still). Still seems crappy though. What an opportunity this team had and shot themselves in the foot many many different ways. And who knows when the chance comes again. A full season of healthy McDrai, with them both completely on point scoring can never be taken for granted and who knows if it happens again.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 11:14]

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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823925 is a reply to message #823916 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 11:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:25

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17


Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.


What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.


Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)


I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

Over the course of the season goaltending reveals itself for sure, but I think over a playoff run it does too. Usually. I just don't think rolling the dice and hoping for luck or Jack Campbell to magically turn it around at max pressure is the best route to success. In hindsight Campbell should have been started in game 6, but that's only because the Oilers lost. I still would have to be convinced that he could handle a start (and we'll never know).

Here's a fun one: would you start Oettinger in Dallas tomorrow or whoever the backup is?

So based on your theory that goaltending reveals itself in the regular season but also in the playoffs, how would you explain what has happened to some of the goalies this year?

Ullmark - Most likely the run away Vezina winner. 1.89 GA, .938%. Playoffs, 3.33 and .896 in 6 games. I heard maybe he was slightly hurt but who knows how bad. But regardless, that's a massive difference. So what is he moving forward? Vezina goalie like we saw this past season, a bad goalie like we saw in the playoffs or probably in the middle.

Oettinger - Everyone says he's awesome. He will probably be in the Vezina voting. 2.37 GA, .919% in the regular season. Playoffs, 3.02, .895% So what is he?

Vasilevskiy - I think he is he best goalie in the league. 2.65 GA, .915 in the season. 3.56 GA and .875 in the playoffs in 6 games. So is he washed up?

Hill - In 101 career NHL games, it looks like he's put up decent stats as a back up. These playoffs, 8 games, 1.96 GA, .940%. Should teams be backing the brinks truck up for him as he's the next big thing in goaltending and will be the vezina guy?

My point is, while I don't think any team should be going into the playoffs praying for luck, I do think there is an element of unknown/ for lack of a better term luck when it comes to goaltending. Anyone see goalie Bob doing what he is doing right now? His coach didn't even think so as he wasn't the starter in series 1. But he's playing lights out. Hill is absolutely on fire right now. Do I think he will be the vezina winner next season? Hell no.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823926 is a reply to message #823925 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 11:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:26


So based on your theory that goaltending reveals itself in the regular season but also in the playoffs, how would you explain what has happened to some of the goalies this year?

Ullmark - Most likely the run away Vezina winner. 1.89 GA, .938%. Playoffs, 3.33 and .896 in 6 games. I heard maybe he was slightly hurt but who knows how bad. But regardless, that's a massive difference. So what is he moving forward? Vezina goalie like we saw this past season, a bad goalie like we saw in the playoffs or probably in the middle.

Oettinger - Everyone says he's awesome. He will probably be in the Vezina voting. 2.37 GA, .919% in the regular season. Playoffs, 3.02, .895% So what is he?

Vasilevskiy - I think he is he best goalie in the league. 2.65 GA, .915 in the season. 3.56 GA and .875 in the playoffs in 6 games. So is he washed up?

Hill - In 101 career NHL games, it looks like he's put up decent stats as a back up. These playoffs, 8 games, 1.96 GA, .940%. Should teams be backing the brinks truck up for him as he's the next big thing in goaltending and will be the vezina guy?

My point is, while I don't think any team should be going into the playoffs praying for luck, I do think there is an element of unknown/ for lack of a better term luck when it comes to goaltending. Anyone see goalie Bob doing what he is doing right now? His coach didn't even think so as he wasn't the starter in series 1. But he's playing lights out. Hill is absolutely on fire right now. Do I think he will be the vezina winner next season? Hell no.

Of course there are unknowns. It's why your (paraphrased) statement in the other thread "do you know for sure that anyone will be better than Skinner" is ridiculous. That's a known unknown.

How do I explain it? Playoff hockey is really difficult, a series is a small sample, outside influences (sickness, Ukrainian hookers, sore backs) can have an oversized impact, streaks are real, guys and teams get tired. And sometimes crap just happens. How do you control for DoPS or the '06 Torres hit against SJ?

The question isn't why did X happen. It's would you rather go into the playoffs with Vasilevsky or Skinner or Hill? Would you rather have the Oilers defense or the Stars? There is a lot of room for random chance in the playoffs (I absolutely loathe the word luck). That's true. You can't control a lot of things in a hockey game or series. But you can control the inputs and give yourself the best possible circumstance to win. Keep in mind you can do that and still lose. Despite the result, I'd still rather be the Avs not the Kraken.

When I look at the Oilers and their defense, goaltending, reliance on the PP, management, and organization... I'd rather be Vegas. Yes, the Oilers could have won and they might win next year. I think the Knights have given themselves a better chance to win.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 11:49]

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823927 is a reply to message #823926 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:47

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:26


So based on your theory that goaltending reveals itself in the regular season but also in the playoffs, how would you explain what has happened to some of the goalies this year?

Ullmark - Most likely the run away Vezina winner. 1.89 GA, .938%. Playoffs, 3.33 and .896 in 6 games. I heard maybe he was slightly hurt but who knows how bad. But regardless, that's a massive difference. So what is he moving forward? Vezina goalie like we saw this past season, a bad goalie like we saw in the playoffs or probably in the middle.

Oettinger - Everyone says he's awesome. He will probably be in the Vezina voting. 2.37 GA, .919% in the regular season. Playoffs, 3.02, .895% So what is he?

Vasilevskiy - I think he is he best goalie in the league. 2.65 GA, .915 in the season. 3.56 GA and .875 in the playoffs in 6 games. So is he washed up?

Hill - In 101 career NHL games, it looks like he's put up decent stats as a back up. These playoffs, 8 games, 1.96 GA, .940%. Should teams be backing the brinks truck up for him as he's the next big thing in goaltending and will be the vezina guy?

My point is, while I don't think any team should be going into the playoffs praying for luck, I do think there is an element of unknown/ for lack of a better term luck when it comes to goaltending. Anyone see goalie Bob doing what he is doing right now? His coach didn't even think so as he wasn't the starter in series 1. But he's playing lights out. Hill is absolutely on fire right now. Do I think he will be the vezina winner next season? Hell no.

Of course there are unknowns. It's why your (paraphrased) statement in the other thread "do you know for sure that anyone will be better than Skinner" is ridiculous. That's a known unknown.

How do I explain it? Playoff hockey is really difficult, a series is a small sample, outside influences (sickness, Ukrainian hookers, sore backs) can have an oversized impact, streaks are real, guys and teams get tired. And sometimes crap just happens. How do you control for DoPS or the '06 Torres hit against SJ?

The question isn't why did X happen. It's would you rather go into the playoffs with Vasilevsky or Skinner or Hill? Would you rather have the Oilers defense or the Stars? There is a lot of room for random chance in the playoffs (I absolutely loathe the word luck). That's true. You can't control a lot of things in a hockey game or series. But you can control the inputs and give yourself the best possible circumstance to win. Keep in mind you can do that and still lose. Despite the result, I'd still rather be the Avs not the Kraken.

When I look at the Oilers and their defense, goaltending, reliance on the PP, management, and organization... I'd rather be Vegas. Yes, the Oilers could have won and they might win next year. I think the Knights have given themselves a better chance to win.

We will disagree. I would gladly take the Oilers roster over the Knights because the Knights are a much older team both at forward and on defense. So in my opinion the likelihood they will repeat their season due to age is less than the Oilers.

I can't find it now because Capfriendly and PuckPedia have shifted their sites to the 2023 season but I believe the Knights has a cap hit of over 96 mill, the Oilers around 90. That takes into account injuries I believe but an extra 6 mill in player is a lot. That's an advantage.

The Knights got the advantage in their first round opponent. I had the Jets beating the Knights all day. They had the better goalie on paper and I thought the Jets had a good team because on paper they do. But there is some serious locker room problems on that team and the Jets laid down and died. So the Knights got a cake walk, the Oilers got a war with the Kings. That took a toll as the Oilers came out more banged up than the KNights did.

The Knights got lucky with Brossoit pulling his groin or whatever happened. Brossoit was going to give the Knights adequate goaltending, due to injury, they have to play Hill and he's been spectacular.

So lots of things went right for Vegas to be where they are.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823928 is a reply to message #823927 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42


We will disagree. I would gladly take the Oilers roster over the Knights because the Knights are a much older team both at forward and on defense. So in my opinion the likelihood they will repeat their season due to age is less than the Oilers.

I can't find it now because Capfriendly and PuckPedia have shifted their sites to the 2023 season but I believe the Knights has a cap hit of over 96 mill, the Oilers around 90. That takes into account injuries I believe but an extra 6 mill in player is a lot. That's an advantage.

The Knights got the advantage in their first round opponent. I had the Jets beating the Knights all day. They had the better goalie on paper and I thought the Jets had a good team because on paper they do. But there is some serious locker room problems on that team and the Jets laid down and died. So the Knights got a cake walk, the Oilers got a war with the Kings. That took a toll as the Oilers came out more banged up than the KNights did.

The Knights got lucky with Brossoit pulling his groin or whatever happened. Brossoit was going to give the Knights adequate goaltending, due to injury, they have to play Hill and he's been spectacular.

So lots of things went right for Vegas to be where they are.

A lot of what you say went right for Vegas is the result of good management and of being a good hockey team. The Knights didn't 'get' a better first round opponent, they earned it. Their management made better use of the rules than the Oilers. They have goaltending depth and the defense to make their tenders better.

The Knights have been to the conference finals 4 time in their 6 years with likely 2 trips to the finals. Aside from McDavid and pure homerism I don't see a strong argument in favor of the Oilers.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823929 is a reply to message #823928 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 13:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42


We will disagree. I would gladly take the Oilers roster over the Knights because the Knights are a much older team both at forward and on defense. So in my opinion the likelihood they will repeat their season due to age is less than the Oilers.

I can't find it now because Capfriendly and PuckPedia have shifted their sites to the 2023 season but I believe the Knights has a cap hit of over 96 mill, the Oilers around 90. That takes into account injuries I believe but an extra 6 mill in player is a lot. That's an advantage.

The Knights got the advantage in their first round opponent. I had the Jets beating the Knights all day. They had the better goalie on paper and I thought the Jets had a good team because on paper they do. But there is some serious locker room problems on that team and the Jets laid down and died. So the Knights got a cake walk, the Oilers got a war with the Kings. That took a toll as the Oilers came out more banged up than the KNights did.

The Knights got lucky with Brossoit pulling his groin or whatever happened. Brossoit was going to give the Knights adequate goaltending, due to injury, they have to play Hill and he's been spectacular.

So lots of things went right for Vegas to be where they are.

A lot of what you say went right for Vegas is the result of good management and of being a good hockey team. The Knights didn't 'get' a better first round opponent, they earned it. Their management made better use of the rules than the Oilers. They have goaltending depth and the defense to make their tenders better.

The Knights have been to the conference finals 4 time in their 6 years with likely 2 trips to the finals. Aside from McDavid and pure homerism I don't see a strong argument in favor of the Oilers.

So if your take is that it's all great management, how do you explain the Panthers then? The Panthers made it in the playoffs because the Pens crapped the bed and lost to the Hawks in one of their final games. Pens win, Panthers don't make it. But Pens lost a game they should have won, now the Panthers are probably going to be in the cup final. So that was management by the Panthers that things bounced their way?

Do I think the Knights are a good team, Yes so that is a credit to their coach and manager. Is it a good management decision to have all those goalies? Sure. But would they have played Hill if Brossoit hadn't got hurt? Probably not as Brossoit was made the starter and as we have all seen, coaches tend to stick with their "starter" no matter what in the playoffs. But maybe they would have. There is no way to know so if you don't want to say that is a break that Brossoit got hurt, that's fine. I don't fully buy that it's all great management with what has happened with the Knights. If McD doesn't get kneed by Doughty, is he ever so slightly better against the knights, probably. Is that Vegas great management? No. I think good management plays a part but so does luck and so does things just going right for a team at the right time because things are so close in the NHL. A team gets the right opponent at the right time. Key guys do or don't get hurt. Goalies get hot at the right time. Depth forwards get hot at the right time. You get the right ref call at the right time. All things that happen that great management can't control but impact a series good or bad. The Bruins and their manager set records for wins and points and lost in the first round. So their GM who's up for an award and will probably win it, he's a bad manager in your eyes?

We will go round and round on this if I keep going so I will let it go. You have your opinion and I have mine and it's not going to change. Like I said, a manager can build a dominate team, like the Bruins this year, and stuff just happens and they lose and there is not a thing the GM could do differently to stop it. How about this. In a year from now, if the Knights fall short like I expect, I assume you will gladly come on here and tell me the the same management you are praising today, that management is terrible. Don't worry, I will remind you if you forget.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823931 is a reply to message #823929 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 14:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 13:50

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42


We will disagree. I would gladly take the Oilers roster over the Knights because the Knights are a much older team both at forward and on defense. So in my opinion the likelihood they will repeat their season due to age is less than the Oilers.

I can't find it now because Capfriendly and PuckPedia have shifted their sites to the 2023 season but I believe the Knights has a cap hit of over 96 mill, the Oilers around 90. That takes into account injuries I believe but an extra 6 mill in player is a lot. That's an advantage.

The Knights got the advantage in their first round opponent. I had the Jets beating the Knights all day. They had the better goalie on paper and I thought the Jets had a good team because on paper they do. But there is some serious locker room problems on that team and the Jets laid down and died. So the Knights got a cake walk, the Oilers got a war with the Kings. That took a toll as the Oilers came out more banged up than the KNights did.

The Knights got lucky with Brossoit pulling his groin or whatever happened. Brossoit was going to give the Knights adequate goaltending, due to injury, they have to play Hill and he's been spectacular.

So lots of things went right for Vegas to be where they are.

A lot of what you say went right for Vegas is the result of good management and of being a good hockey team. The Knights didn't 'get' a better first round opponent, they earned it. Their management made better use of the rules than the Oilers. They have goaltending depth and the defense to make their tenders better.

The Knights have been to the conference finals 4 time in their 6 years with likely 2 trips to the finals. Aside from McDavid and pure homerism I don't see a strong argument in favor of the Oilers.

So if your take is that it's all great management, how do you explain the Panthers then? The Panthers made it in the playoffs because the Pens crapped the bed and lost to the Hawks in one of their final games. Pens win, Panthers don't make it. But Pens lost a game they should have won, now the Panthers are probably going to be in the cup final. So that was management by the Panthers that things bounced their way?

Do I think the Knights are a good team, Yes so that is a credit to their coach and manager. Is it a good management decision to have all those goalies? Sure. But would they have played Hill if Brossoit hadn't got hurt? Probably not as Brossoit was made the starter and as we have all seen, coaches tend to stick with their "starter" no matter what in the playoffs. But maybe they would have. There is no way to know so if you don't want to say that is a break that Brossoit got hurt, that's fine. I don't fully buy that it's all great management with what has happened with the Knights. If McD doesn't get kneed by Doughty, is he ever so slightly better against the knights, probably. Is that Vegas great management? No. I think good management plays a part but so does luck and so does things just going right for a team at the right time because things are so close in the NHL. A team gets the right opponent at the right time. Key guys do or don't get hurt. Goalies get hot at the right time. Depth forwards get hot at the right time. You get the right ref call at the right time. All things that happen that great management can't control but impact a series good or bad. The Bruins and their manager set records for wins and points and lost in the first round. So their GM who's up for an award and will probably win it, he's a bad manager in your eyes?

We will go round and round on this if I keep going so I will let it go. You have your opinion and I have mine and it's not going to change. Like I said, a manager can build a dominate team, like the Bruins this year, and stuff just happens and they lose and there is not a thing the GM could do differently to stop it. How about this. In a year from now, if the Knights fall short like I expect, I assume you will gladly come on here and tell me the the same management you are praising today, that management is terrible. Don't worry, I will remind you if you forget.

Go right ahead. I have absolutely no skin in the Knights management game. I simply see a better run organization that should be emulated right now. If the Knights have a bad year on and off the ice, so be it. As it stands right now, I don't think the Oilers are in the same league as Knights management and it shows.

As for the Panthers, they saw they had a team that wasn't going to win and they made some hard decisions. Imagine moving on from Huberdeau. It paid off for them down the stretch and in the playoffs so far. Had the Pens beat the Hawks I would have said what I always say "control your business so you don't get stuck hoping for someone else to do it for you". But they got lucky and made the best of it because they have a good hockey team. I also think they've been playing really good hockey since the new year, but no one really noticed because it's Florida.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823933 is a reply to message #823931 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 15:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 14:55


Go right ahead. I have absolutely no skin in the Knights management game. I simply see a better run organization that should be emulated right now. If the Knights have a bad year on and off the ice, so be it. As it stands right now, I don't think the Oilers are in the same league as Knights management and it shows.

As for the Panthers, they saw they had a team that wasn't going to win and they made some hard decisions. Imagine moving on from Huberdeau. It paid off for them down the stretch and in the playoffs so far. Had the Pens beat the Hawks I would have said what I always say "control your business so you don't get stuck hoping for someone else to do it for you". But they got lucky and made the best of it because they have a good hockey team. I also think they've been playing really good hockey since the new year, but no one really noticed because it's Florida.


Yeah - and you look at Florida and that's a team that won the President's Trophy a year ago, so they may have just scraped in this year, but it wasn't like there wasn't any indications they're a decent team. This isn't a cinderella team on the level of the 1991 North Stars here.

They definitely had some adjustment issues, and frankly, their goaltending sucked all year until the playoffs. They were 5th in the league in goals for, and 12th worst in goals against. Their best goalie by the numbers was Lyon, who was in the minors to start the season and who lasted all of three playoff starts before ceding the net back to Bobrovsky.

The story of their year is all about netminding - when they get it, they're a good team. Most likely a Stanley Cup finalist.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823934 is a reply to message #823933 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 15:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:17



The story of their year is all about netminding - when they get it, they're a good team. Most likely a Stanley Cup finalist.

As much as I hate to say it, Tkachuk is a really good playoffs player. He may have figured out how to say engaged without 'crossing the line'. That should scare everyone in the league. Thank goodness he's out of the Oilers division. He might end up with a Conn Smythe in a couple weeks which makes me feel gross on the inside.

Eichel might win it if Vegas comes through.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823932 is a reply to message #823928 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 15:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42


We will disagree. I would gladly take the Oilers roster over the Knights because the Knights are a much older team both at forward and on defense. So in my opinion the likelihood they will repeat their season due to age is less than the Oilers.

I can't find it now because Capfriendly and PuckPedia have shifted their sites to the 2023 season but I believe the Knights has a cap hit of over 96 mill, the Oilers around 90. That takes into account injuries I believe but an extra 6 mill in player is a lot. That's an advantage.

The Knights got the advantage in their first round opponent. I had the Jets beating the Knights all day. They had the better goalie on paper and I thought the Jets had a good team because on paper they do. But there is some serious locker room problems on that team and the Jets laid down and died. So the Knights got a cake walk, the Oilers got a war with the Kings. That took a toll as the Oilers came out more banged up than the KNights did.

The Knights got lucky with Brossoit pulling his groin or whatever happened. Brossoit was going to give the Knights adequate goaltending, due to injury, they have to play Hill and he's been spectacular.

So lots of things went right for Vegas to be where they are.

A lot of what you say went right for Vegas is the result of good management and of being a good hockey team. The Knights didn't 'get' a better first round opponent, they earned it. Their management made better use of the rules than the Oilers. They have goaltending depth and the defense to make their tenders better.

The Knights have been to the conference finals 4 time in their 6 years with likely 2 trips to the finals. Aside from McDavid and pure homerism I don't see a strong argument in favor of the Oilers.


Case in point regarding management - the Oilers could have sat Kane, Yamamoto or both and gone and used their money to get additional players for the playoff run. That $6MM difference in payroll? That's it right there.

The Knights took a risk that they wouldn't win home ice advantage by holding Stone out for longer than he probably needed, and it allowed them to add Barbashev, Blueger and Quick at the deadline. That's not insignificant. Well, Quick is, but that's it. They didn't have to give up anything to get those players too.

Compare that to Edmonton where it cost us Barrie and Puljujarvi in order to get Ekholm and Bjugstad. Bjugstad didn't add an awful lot, Ekholm was great, but imagining also adding another $6MM player or two more $3MM players? Could have addressed both defence and top six holes in the roster.

I know some would like to ignore it, but it comes back again and again to the fact our biggest hole is in management. I have to think that a management team like Vegas, if they had McDavid and Draisaitl for the last 8 years, they'd have won more than four playoff rounds. I mean, hell, they've won a lot more in less time without those gifts. If I'm McDavid and Draisaitl, that's why I guestion whether this is where I want to sign my next contract. The legacy looks a lot worse if they never win a Cup, and if I was them, I'd be losing confidence fast.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823938 is a reply to message #823932 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42


We will disagree. I would gladly take the Oilers roster over the Knights because the Knights are a much older team both at forward and on defense. So in my opinion the likelihood they will repeat their season due to age is less than the Oilers.

I can't find it now because Capfriendly and PuckPedia have shifted their sites to the 2023 season but I believe the Knights has a cap hit of over 96 mill, the Oilers around 90. That takes into account injuries I believe but an extra 6 mill in player is a lot. That's an advantage.

The Knights got the advantage in their first round opponent. I had the Jets beating the Knights all day. They had the better goalie on paper and I thought the Jets had a good team because on paper they do. But there is some serious locker room problems on that team and the Jets laid down and died. So the Knights got a cake walk, the Oilers got a war with the Kings. That took a toll as the Oilers came out more banged up than the KNights did.

The Knights got lucky with Brossoit pulling his groin or whatever happened. Brossoit was going to give the Knights adequate goaltending, due to injury, they have to play Hill and he's been spectacular.

So lots of things went right for Vegas to be where they are.

A lot of what you say went right for Vegas is the result of good management and of being a good hockey team. The Knights didn't 'get' a better first round opponent, they earned it. Their management made better use of the rules than the Oilers. They have goaltending depth and the defense to make their tenders better.

The Knights have been to the conference finals 4 time in their 6 years with likely 2 trips to the finals. Aside from McDavid and pure homerism I don't see a strong argument in favor of the Oilers.


Case in point regarding management - the Oilers could have sat Kane, Yamamoto or both and gone and used their money to get additional players for the playoff run. That $6MM difference in payroll? That's it right there.

The Knights took a risk that they wouldn't win home ice advantage by holding Stone out for longer than he probably needed, and it allowed them to add Barbashev, Blueger and Quick at the deadline. That's not insignificant. Well, Quick is, but that's it. They didn't have to give up anything to get those players too.

Compare that to Edmonton where it cost us Barrie and Puljujarvi in order to get Ekholm and Bjugstad. Bjugstad didn't add an awful lot, Ekholm was great, but imagining also adding another $6MM player or two more $3MM players? Could have addressed both defence and top six holes in the roster.

I know some would like to ignore it, but it comes back again and again to the fact our biggest hole is in management. I have to think that a management team like Vegas, if they had McDavid and Draisaitl for the last 8 years, they'd have won more than four playoff rounds. I mean, hell, they've won a lot more in less time without those gifts. If I'm McDavid and Draisaitl, that's why I guestion whether this is where I want to sign my next contract. The legacy looks a lot worse if they never win a Cup, and if I was them, I'd be losing confidence fast.

Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823939 is a reply to message #823938 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823941 is a reply to message #823939 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.


100%.

It's not like this is the first time something like this has happened and no one has ever thought of this before. We're talking about a loophole that's been used repeatedly since the Blackhawks did it in 2014-15 by sitting out Patrick Kane for the last 21 games of the regular season. They used his money to trade for Kimmo Timmonen, Antoine Vermette and Andrew Desjardins. Oh, and the won the Cup that year.

Holland has acted disdainful about people using these methods to stretch their cap room (even though we were in LTIR much of the year ourselves). He's never yet tried to use a third party to off-load some cap hit. He's instead talked about how we don't have cap space as a constant excuse as to why he can't do more. I mean, who can forget a couple years ago when he suggested that he couldn't spend more because what if Slater Koekkoek was healthy and able to rejoin the team? Koekkoek did of course play in the last game of the season, so it was pretty fortunate that we didn't re-spend his money that Spring!

Spoiler - if Holland is still the GM, we aren't going to do anything creative next year either.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823945 is a reply to message #823941 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 16:19 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
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Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.


100%.

It's not like this is the first time something like this has happened and no one has ever thought of this before. We're talking about a loophole that's been used repeatedly since the Blackhawks did it in 2014-15 by sitting out Patrick Kane for the last 21 games of the regular season. They used his money to trade for Kimmo Timmonen, Antoine Vermette and Andrew Desjardins. Oh, and the won the Cup that year.

Holland has acted disdainful about people using these methods to stretch their cap room (even though we were in LTIR much of the year ourselves). He's never yet tried to use a third party to off-load some cap hit. He's instead talked about how we don't have cap space as a constant excuse as to why he can't do more. I mean, who can forget a couple years ago when he suggested that he couldn't spend more because what if Slater Koekkoek was healthy and able to rejoin the team? Koekkoek did of course play in the last game of the season, so it was pretty fortunate that we didn't re-spend his money that Spring!

Spoiler - if Holland is still the GM, we aren't going to do anything creative next year either.

There it is! Another Oilers management sucks comment from Adam. I am stunned it took this long.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823946 is a reply to message #823945 ]
Wed, 24 May 2023 16:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:19

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44


Very true. The Oilers had the opportunity to cheat and they didn't do it. I can't argue with that. In hindsight, they should have cheated, got the cap space and loaded up even more. I hope if the opportunity arises next season, they will do it. I am being 100% serious. If the league is going to allow this joke of a system to keep going, the Oilers need to play the system just like the Knights.

This is a learning opportunity. What Vegas (and Edmonton) did is well within the rules. We can either see excellence where it exists and learn from it or complain about the unfairness of life while remaining stagnant. Us fans or Oilers management not liking the rules does not make other teams following them cheating.


100%.

It's not like this is the first time something like this has happened and no one has ever thought of this before. We're talking about a loophole that's been used repeatedly since the Blackhawks did it in 2014-15 by sitting out Patrick Kane for the last 21 games of the regular season. They used his money to trade for Kimmo Timmonen, Antoine Vermette and Andrew Desjardins. Oh, and the won the Cup that year.

Holland has acted disdainful about people using these methods to stretch their cap room (even though we were in LTIR much of the year ourselves). He's never yet tried to use a third party to off-load some cap hit. He's instead talked about how we don't have cap space as a constant excuse as to why he can't do more. I mean, who can forget a couple years ago when he suggested that he couldn't spend more because what if Slater Koekkoek was healthy and able to rejoin the team? Koekkoek did of course play in the last game of the season, so it was pretty fortunate that we didn't re-spend his money that Spring!

Spoiler - if Holland is still the GM, we aren't going to do anything creative next year either.

There it is! Another Oilers management sucks comment from Adam. I am stunned it took this long.

Oilers management does suck. You and I have been talking about it all day. Frankly I think half the reason Oilers fans suck now, and we sound an awful lot like peak the peak Dys now, is because we listen to Oilers management still.

Edit to add: way back when, before my times here, Oilfans call the Canucks the Dynasties (Dys) because their fans were obnoxious, arrogant, and entitled despite Canucks have very little success.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 16:35]

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