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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #694987 is a reply to message #694959 ]
Thu, 25 May 2017 09:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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OilPeg wrote on Wed, 24 May 2017 10:09

benv wrote on Tue, 23 May 2017 16:11


I agree that will be their protected list, but I'm not sure about losing someone they don't care about. The main exposed players will be:

Goal: Brossoit
Defence: Fayne, Reinhart
Forward: Pouliot, Pakarinen, Khaira

I think the Knights will probably take Reinhart, although it's hard to know, since it not just the best player available. They also have to take a quota of goalies, defence, and forwards in their 29 selections, so it will depend somewhat on what other teams have available. I could also see the Oilers offering a draft pick sweetner to take Fayne, or a higher pick to take Pouliot.

Anyway, I don't really want to lose Reinhart, Brossoit, or Khaira, but I can live with it.

Will anyone else be sorry to see anyone on that list leave?


It's not that I don't care about Reinhart, I just care less about losing him than I would losing Letestu, which is weird actually, I just really like Letestu I guess.

For the record, I think Vegas takes Pouliot from the Oilers without even having to offer any incentive. He's the best of the bunch and there will be a ton of better defenseman than Reinhart available on other teams. Pouliot had a bad year for sure, but he's a better player than what he showed, I think we can agree on that. Vegas needs to take players that will at least fill a competitive roster and Pouliot definitely helps them do that.

Some defenseman that will likely be available to compare against Reinhart:

ANA - Manson (or Vatanen if they end up going 7-3)
BOS - C Miller, K Miller, McQuaid (at least two of these three)
CHI - Van Riemsdyk, Pokka
CLB - J Johnson
DAL - Johns
DET - Ericsson
FLA - Demers, Petrovic, Pysyk (at least two of these three)
LA - McNabb, Forbort
MIN - Scandella, Dumba, Brodin (at least two of these three)
MTL - Emelin, Davidson, Benn, Nesterov
NSH - Ekholm (only if they deem him expendable over Wilson, Jarnkrok, & Smith) but they'd likely make a trade first.
NJ - Lovejoy
NYI - Hickey, Pulock
NYR - Klein, Holden
OTT- Methot (or Phaneuf if he waives)
PIT - Pouliot, Cole
SJ - Martin, Dillon (one of these two)
STL - Gunnarson, Bortuzzo
TB - Garrison, Coburn
TOR - Marchenko, Marincin, Carrick (two of these three)
VAN - Sbisa
WSH - Orpik, Schmidt, Orlov (two of these three)

I'd bet you could find at least 9 defenseman (or 12) that you'd think are better than Reinhart. ALSO, important to remember that Reinhart will need waivers next year so if he doesn't make the team, we could claim him back. I believe that would be allowed because he's not being traded back, we'd be taking him back.

I think Vegas is going to load up on Dmen with the intention of trading a couple to get help up front. I just don't see how there will be many top 6 forwards made available. If there happens to be a legit top 6 guy made available, I believe it's because he's a problem player. As an example Evander Kane. He had some problems in Buffalo, some got dropped. He had a good year and is a real good player. But if you are Vegas and you know he has had trouble with the law, party related, getting involved in incidents with girls, some of which involved police. Whether it was 100% true or not. DO you want to bring a player like him to party/girl central in the US? I wouldn't.

I mentioned it earlier. If I am Vegas and I could get a decent right shot dman. I would call up the Oilers. I would trade Eberle most definitely for several guys on that list and maybe even Nuge.

I think it is doubtful Vegas takes Pouliot without a sweetner, I would love it if they did. I do however see Pouliot as a useful guy. I think he will bounce back with a better year and get into the 12 + goal, 30+ pt range while being a good PK guy, provided he's on a 3rd line. For a team like Vegas, if he got second line time, some PP time like he did with the Oilers his first 2 seasons, he could easily surpass that. If he does, then his 4 mill looks just fine. When he's producing like a 4th liner, his 4 mill is bad.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #694992 is a reply to message #694987 ]
Thu, 25 May 2017 10:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilPeg  is currently offline OilPeg
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:27


I think Vegas is going to load up on Dmen with the intention of trading a couple to get help up front. I just don't see how there will be many top 6 forwards made available. If there happens to be a legit top 6 guy made available, I believe it's because he's a problem player. As an example Evander Kane. He had some problems in Buffalo, some got dropped. He had a good year and is a real good player. But if you are Vegas and you know he has had trouble with the law, party related, getting involved in incidents with girls, some of which involved police. Whether it was 100% true or not. DO you want to bring a player like him to party/girl central in the US? I wouldn't.

I mentioned it earlier. If I am Vegas and I could get a decent right shot dman. I would call up the Oilers. I would trade Eberle most definitely for several guys on that list and maybe even Nuge.

I think it is doubtful Vegas takes Pouliot without a sweetner, I would love it if they did. I do however see Pouliot as a useful guy. I think he will bounce back with a better year and get into the 12 + goal, 30+ pt range while being a good PK guy, provided he's on a 3rd line. For a team like Vegas, if he got second line time, some PP time like he did with the Oilers his first 2 seasons, he could easily surpass that. If he does, then his 4 mill looks just fine. When he's producing like a 4th liner, his 4 mill is bad.


I think there will be a few top-six forwards available, but you're right not many. Here's a list of guys that are mostly middle-six.

ANA - Silfverberg (or maybe Rakell, either one)
BOS - Beleskey
BUF - Moulson (potentially Kane, but I don't think they'd let him go for free, despite his issues)
CHI - Kruger
COL - Soderberg
CLB - Josh Anderson (potential is there to be great)
DAL - Nichushkin (same as Anderson, but KHL factor)
EDM - Pouliot
LA - Brown (might even expose Gaborik, but unlikely)
MIN - Zucker (or Niederreiter)
MTL - Plekanec
NSH - Craig Smith, Colin Wilson
NJ - Cammalleri (or Zajac)
NYI - Kulemin (could be Strome, Nelson, Bailey if they go 4-4)
NYR - Grabner (maybe even Nash)
OTT - Bobby Ryan (I could see them exposing him at his salary)
PHA - Read
STL - Yakupov (like Anderson and Nichushkin, there's still potential...maybe)
WSH - Eller
WPG - Lowry

You could build a decent top-six out of this, but you're right about loading up on D to enhance this group. There's also the UFA market, where they might attract some talent. They already signed that Russian guy who's supposed to be a top-six player.



Skookum Jim wrote on Sat, 02 June 2012 00:29

But he (Belanger)'s as soft as room temp. margarine.

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 18:49

Turris in the BOA will be like an ice cube in the Sahara.

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #694995 is a reply to message #694992 ]
Thu, 25 May 2017 11:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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OilPeg wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:27


I think Vegas is going to load up on Dmen with the intention of trading a couple to get help up front. I just don't see how there will be many top 6 forwards made available. If there happens to be a legit top 6 guy made available, I believe it's because he's a problem player. As an example Evander Kane. He had some problems in Buffalo, some got dropped. He had a good year and is a real good player. But if you are Vegas and you know he has had trouble with the law, party related, getting involved in incidents with girls, some of which involved police. Whether it was 100% true or not. DO you want to bring a player like him to party/girl central in the US? I wouldn't.

I mentioned it earlier. If I am Vegas and I could get a decent right shot dman. I would call up the Oilers. I would trade Eberle most definitely for several guys on that list and maybe even Nuge.

I think it is doubtful Vegas takes Pouliot without a sweetner, I would love it if they did. I do however see Pouliot as a useful guy. I think he will bounce back with a better year and get into the 12 + goal, 30+ pt range while being a good PK guy, provided he's on a 3rd line. For a team like Vegas, if he got second line time, some PP time like he did with the Oilers his first 2 seasons, he could easily surpass that. If he does, then his 4 mill looks just fine. When he's producing like a 4th liner, his 4 mill is bad.


I think there will be a few top-six forwards available, but you're right not many. Here's a list of guys that are mostly middle-six.

ANA - Silfverberg (or maybe Rakell, either one)
BOS - Beleskey
BUF - Moulson (potentially Kane, but I don't think they'd let him go for free, despite his issues)
CHI - Kruger
COL - Soderberg
CLB - Josh Anderson (potential is there to be great)
DAL - Nichushkin (same as Anderson, but KHL factor)
EDM - Pouliot
LA - Brown (might even expose Gaborik, but unlikely)
MIN - Zucker (or Niederreiter)
MTL - Plekanec
NSH - Craig Smith, Colin Wilson
NJ - Cammalleri (or Zajac)
NYI - Kulemin (could be Strome, Nelson, Bailey if they go 4-4)
NYR - Grabner (maybe even Nash)
OTT - Bobby Ryan (I could see them exposing him at his salary)
PHA - Read
STL - Yakupov (like Anderson and Nichushkin, there's still potential...maybe)
WSH - Eller
WPG - Lowry

You could build a decent top-six out of this, but you're right about loading up on D to enhance this group. There's also the UFA market, where they might attract some talent. They already signed that Russian guy who's supposed to be a top-six player.

The thing about the guys you listed though, a lot of them have bad contracts for lots of money and long term. Beleskey, Brown, Gaborik, Ryan, Moulson all make big money, have lots of term. VEgas will be willing to take maybe one or 2 longer term deals but not many. So other than Silverberg and maybe Zucker, there isn't a lot of proven top 6 guys.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #694997 is a reply to message #694995 ]
Thu, 25 May 2017 11:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilPeg  is currently offline OilPeg
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 12:02

OilPeg wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:27


I think Vegas is going to load up on Dmen with the intention of trading a couple to get help up front. I just don't see how there will be many top 6 forwards made available. If there happens to be a legit top 6 guy made available, I believe it's because he's a problem player. As an example Evander Kane. He had some problems in Buffalo, some got dropped. He had a good year and is a real good player. But if you are Vegas and you know he has had trouble with the law, party related, getting involved in incidents with girls, some of which involved police. Whether it was 100% true or not. DO you want to bring a player like him to party/girl central in the US? I wouldn't.

I mentioned it earlier. If I am Vegas and I could get a decent right shot dman. I would call up the Oilers. I would trade Eberle most definitely for several guys on that list and maybe even Nuge.

I think it is doubtful Vegas takes Pouliot without a sweetner, I would love it if they did. I do however see Pouliot as a useful guy. I think he will bounce back with a better year and get into the 12 + goal, 30+ pt range while being a good PK guy, provided he's on a 3rd line. For a team like Vegas, if he got second line time, some PP time like he did with the Oilers his first 2 seasons, he could easily surpass that. If he does, then his 4 mill looks just fine. When he's producing like a 4th liner, his 4 mill is bad.


I think there will be a few top-six forwards available, but you're right not many. Here's a list of guys that are mostly middle-six.

ANA - Silfverberg (or maybe Rakell, either one)
BOS - Beleskey
BUF - Moulson (potentially Kane, but I don't think they'd let him go for free, despite his issues)
CHI - Kruger
COL - Soderberg
CLB - Josh Anderson (potential is there to be great)
DAL - Nichushkin (same as Anderson, but KHL factor)
EDM - Pouliot
LA - Brown (might even expose Gaborik, but unlikely)
MIN - Zucker (or Niederreiter)
MTL - Plekanec
NSH - Craig Smith, Colin Wilson
NJ - Cammalleri (or Zajac)
NYI - Kulemin (could be Strome, Nelson, Bailey if they go 4-4)
NYR - Grabner (maybe even Nash)
OTT - Bobby Ryan (I could see them exposing him at his salary)
PHA - Read
STL - Yakupov (like Anderson and Nichushkin, there's still potential...maybe)
WSH - Eller
WPG - Lowry

You could build a decent top-six out of this, but you're right about loading up on D to enhance this group. There's also the UFA market, where they might attract some talent. They already signed that Russian guy who's supposed to be a top-six player.

The thing about the guys you listed though, a lot of them have bad contracts for lots of money and long term. Beleskey, Brown, Gaborik, Ryan, Moulson all make big money, have lots of term. VEgas will be willing to take maybe one or 2 longer term deals but not many. So other than Silverberg and maybe Zucker, there isn't a lot of proven top 6 guys.


Of course. I'm not saying take all of them, but if you take them strategically, you can fill a top-nine with three 2nd lines. It's not the recipe for a cup, but it's a decent recipe for survival.

Silfverberg-Smith-Zucker
Ryan-Eller-Pouliot
Read-Lowry-Kulemin
Not taking into account the Russian that will surely slot in here.

Not horrible. Got to remember though, you're taking some of these guys in place of a good defenseman. Silfverberg over Manson, Zucker over Scandella (or Dumba or Brodin), Ryan over Methot (or Phaneuf if he waives), Smith over Ekholm (although Ekholm will never be exposed). To figure this out properly, you really need to run a few different lineups based on the either/or picks to see which is the strongest.



Skookum Jim wrote on Sat, 02 June 2012 00:29

But he (Belanger)'s as soft as room temp. margarine.

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 18:49

Turris in the BOA will be like an ice cube in the Sahara.

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695000 is a reply to message #694997 ]
Thu, 25 May 2017 12:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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OilPeg wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 11:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 12:02

OilPeg wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 25 May 2017 10:27


I think Vegas is going to load up on Dmen with the intention of trading a couple to get help up front. I just don't see how there will be many top 6 forwards made available. If there happens to be a legit top 6 guy made available, I believe it's because he's a problem player. As an example Evander Kane. He had some problems in Buffalo, some got dropped. He had a good year and is a real good player. But if you are Vegas and you know he has had trouble with the law, party related, getting involved in incidents with girls, some of which involved police. Whether it was 100% true or not. DO you want to bring a player like him to party/girl central in the US? I wouldn't.

I mentioned it earlier. If I am Vegas and I could get a decent right shot dman. I would call up the Oilers. I would trade Eberle most definitely for several guys on that list and maybe even Nuge.

I think it is doubtful Vegas takes Pouliot without a sweetner, I would love it if they did. I do however see Pouliot as a useful guy. I think he will bounce back with a better year and get into the 12 + goal, 30+ pt range while being a good PK guy, provided he's on a 3rd line. For a team like Vegas, if he got second line time, some PP time like he did with the Oilers his first 2 seasons, he could easily surpass that. If he does, then his 4 mill looks just fine. When he's producing like a 4th liner, his 4 mill is bad.


I think there will be a few top-six forwards available, but you're right not many. Here's a list of guys that are mostly middle-six.

ANA - Silfverberg (or maybe Rakell, either one)
BOS - Beleskey
BUF - Moulson (potentially Kane, but I don't think they'd let him go for free, despite his issues)
CHI - Kruger
COL - Soderberg
CLB - Josh Anderson (potential is there to be great)
DAL - Nichushkin (same as Anderson, but KHL factor)
EDM - Pouliot
LA - Brown (might even expose Gaborik, but unlikely)
MIN - Zucker (or Niederreiter)
MTL - Plekanec
NSH - Craig Smith, Colin Wilson
NJ - Cammalleri (or Zajac)
NYI - Kulemin (could be Strome, Nelson, Bailey if they go 4-4)
NYR - Grabner (maybe even Nash)
OTT - Bobby Ryan (I could see them exposing him at his salary)
PHA - Read
STL - Yakupov (like Anderson and Nichushkin, there's still potential...maybe)
WSH - Eller
WPG - Lowry

You could build a decent top-six out of this, but you're right about loading up on D to enhance this group. There's also the UFA market, where they might attract some talent. They already signed that Russian guy who's supposed to be a top-six player.

The thing about the guys you listed though, a lot of them have bad contracts for lots of money and long term. Beleskey, Brown, Gaborik, Ryan, Moulson all make big money, have lots of term. VEgas will be willing to take maybe one or 2 longer term deals but not many. So other than Silverberg and maybe Zucker, there isn't a lot of proven top 6 guys.


Of course. I'm not saying take all of them, but if you take them strategically, you can fill a top-nine with three 2nd lines. It's not the recipe for a cup, but it's a decent recipe for survival.

Silfverberg-Smith-Zucker
Ryan-Eller-Pouliot
Read-Lowry-Kulemin
Not taking into account the Russian that will surely slot in here.

Not horrible. Got to remember though, you're taking some of these guys in place of a good defenseman. Silfverberg over Manson, Zucker over Scandella (or Dumba or Brodin), Ryan over Methot (or Phaneuf if he waives), Smith over Ekholm (although Ekholm will never be exposed). To figure this out properly, you really need to run a few different lineups based on the either/or picks to see which is the strongest.

I could see Nashvile protecting 4 dmen. They have decent forwards but after Forsber, Johansen, Neal and Arvidsson, they all are interchangeable to me. But their top 4 dmen have carried them to the finals. Subban, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis. Plus all of them except Subban are signed for cheap.

I think Vegas will shy away from too many guys that have long, big money contracts. They can say all they want about being competitive right away, they know that they are likely 2-3 years min of being remotely decent. So I doubt they take any guy that has a deal any longer than 2 years. Plus I see them wanting guys that are 30 and under.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #694950 is a reply to message #694926 ]
Wed, 24 May 2017 00:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
haggis  is currently offline haggis
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Wouldn't you expect some cheap upgrades as teams attempt to get something of value for a players that they suspect would otherwise lose in the expansion draft?


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695083 is a reply to message #694950 ]
Tue, 30 May 2017 11:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jakey  is currently offline Jakey
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I believe Carolina is a great trading partner for us this summer. Below is a trade proposal with them. Then what trade we could make with Vegas to offload some salary & what our Expansion protection list would look like if this played out. A massive trade for sure, with needs filled on both sides.

To Carolina - Nuge, Eberle, 3rd (via Stl) & 3rd (2018) rd picks (salary cap hit is $12 million)
To Oilers - J. Faulk, E. Lindholm & a 2nd (via NYR) (salary cap hit is $7.533 million)

Carolina gets 2 top 6 forwards, Nuge gives them 3 legit centers & Eberle is an upgrade over Lindholm as they Canes have Aho that has surpassed Lindholm on the depth chart.

Oilers get the top 4 RH Dmen they very much need, some needed cap room for future contracts of McDavid/Drai, plus a 2nd rd pick they can use to determine who Vegas picks in the expansion draft. Lindholm slots in one of the top 6 RW spots left vacant from Ebs moving out.

We trade that 2nd rd pick to Vegas Along with eating $1 million in salary for the next 2 years for them to take Pouliot in the expansion.

We protect using a 4/4/1 - Drai, Lucic, Lindholm & Maroon up front, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson & Faulk on the back end with Talbot in net.

It is definately a doozy of a proposal. The X factors are.... what do the Canes think of Eberle & would they believe he is an upgrade on Lindholm? Do they believe Nuge can deliver more when given more minutes of offensive opportunity? The Canes would have 2 excellent shutdown centers & still have a great young D behind them.

Well let me hear it folks, I have my earplugs in lol.




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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695084 is a reply to message #695083 ]
Tue, 30 May 2017 11:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Jakey wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:23

I believe Carolina is a great trading partner for us this summer. Below is a trade proposal with them. Then what trade we could make with Vegas to offload some salary & what our Expansion protection list would look like if this played out. A massive trade for sure, with needs filled on both sides.

To Carolina - Nuge, Eberle, 3rd (via Stl) & 3rd (2018) rd picks (salary cap hit is $12 million)
To Oilers - J. Faulk, E. Lindholm & a 2nd (via NYR) (salary cap hit is $7.533 million)

Carolina gets 2 top 6 forwards, Nuge gives them 3 legit centers & Eberle is an upgrade over Lindholm as they Canes have Aho that has surpassed Lindholm on the depth chart.

Oilers get the top 4 RH Dmen they very much need, some needed cap room for future contracts of McDavid/Drai, plus a 2nd rd pick they can use to determine who Vegas picks in the expansion draft. Lindholm slots in one of the top 6 RW spots left vacant from Ebs moving out.

We trade that 2nd rd pick to Vegas Along with eating $1 million in salary for the next 2 years for them to take Pouliot in the expansion.

We protect using a 4/4/1 - Drai, Lucic, Lindholm & Maroon up front, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson & Faulk on the back end with Talbot in net.

It is definately a doozy of a proposal. The X factors are.... what do the Canes think of Eberle & would they believe he is an upgrade on Lindholm? Do they believe Nuge can deliver more when given more minutes of offensive opportunity? The Canes would have 2 excellent shutdown centers & still have a great young D behind them.

Well let me hear it folks, I have my earplugs in lol.



I find your trade interesting but I think Carolina is giving up too much. Nuge on his own doesn't get you Faulk. Maybe Nuge and a 3rd is enough for Faulk as the Canes are deep on young dmen but weak on good, top 6 forwards. I think Nuge in the smaller, speedier east might do better than the bigger, heavier West. I am not sure Eberle and a 3rd for Lindholm is enough. I say that because Lonholm is a right shot center that won almost 56% of faceoffs. Exactly what the Oilers need actually. So it might taken a prospect as well.

But you haven't accounted for the cap space that Edmonton is getting which is worth something to teams, especially to a team that is a lower revenue generating team like the Canes. So I don't think Carolina would give up the 2nd at all. So it might take another prospect to make up for the cap space because almost 5 mill in cap space is HUGE.

[Updated on: Tue, 30 May 2017 12:33]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695088 is a reply to message #695084 ]
Wed, 31 May 2017 08:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jakey  is currently offline Jakey
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:48

Jakey wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:23

I believe Carolina is a great trading partner for us this summer. Below is a trade proposal with them. Then what trade we could make with Vegas to offload some salary & what our Expansion protection list would look like if this played out. A massive trade for sure, with needs filled on both sides.

To Carolina - Nuge, Eberle, 3rd (via Stl) & 3rd (2018) rd picks (salary cap hit is $12 million)
To Oilers - J. Faulk, E. Lindholm & a 2nd (via NYR) (salary cap hit is $7.533 million)

Carolina gets 2 top 6 forwards, Nuge gives them 3 legit centers & Eberle is an upgrade over Lindholm as they Canes have Aho that has surpassed Lindholm on the depth chart.

Oilers get the top 4 RH Dmen they very much need, some needed cap room for future contracts of McDavid/Drai, plus a 2nd rd pick they can use to determine who Vegas picks in the expansion draft. Lindholm slots in one of the top 6 RW spots left vacant from Ebs moving out.

We trade that 2nd rd pick to Vegas Along with eating $1 million in salary for the next 2 years for them to take Pouliot in the expansion.

We protect using a 4/4/1 - Drai, Lucic, Lindholm & Maroon up front, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson & Faulk on the back end with Talbot in net.

It is definately a doozy of a proposal. The X factors are.... what do the Canes think of Eberle & would they believe he is an upgrade on Lindholm? Do they believe Nuge can deliver more when given more minutes of offensive opportunity? The Canes would have 2 excellent shutdown centers & still have a great young D behind them.

Well let me hear it folks, I have my earplugs in lol.



I find your trade interesting but I think Carolina is giving up too much. Nuge on his own doesn't get you Faulk. Maybe Nuge and a 3rd is enough for Faulk as the Canes are deep on young dmen but weak on good, top 6 forwards. I think Nuge in the smaller, speedier east might do better than the bigger, heavier West. I am not sure Eberle and a 3rd for Lindholm is enough. I say that because Lonholm is a right shot center that won almost 56% of faceoffs. Exactly what the Oilers need actually. So it might taken a prospect as well.

But you haven't accounted for the cap space that Edmonton is getting which is worth something to teams, especially to a team that is a lower revenue generating team like the Canes. So I don't think Carolina would give up the 2nd at all. So it might take another prospect to make up for the cap space because almost 5 mill in cap space is HUGE.


The cap space is one of the aspects of a potential trading of either Nuge or Ebs that is needed & one of the main reasons we need to trade one of them at minimum in the next 15 months. That is why Carolina is so attractive as a trade partner because they can take on some big money this summer. The Canes may need a bit more for some kind of trade like this to happen. It all depends on what they think Nuge's production would be and if Eberle can get back to 60-65 point production. If they need more I would be willing to add in a any prospect not named Bear or C. Jones.

Either way extremely unlikely this type of big trade happens. The Canes do represent an opportunity to get the #4 RH Dman that the Oilers need and They in return can get a top 6 forward they need from us. There is a deal in there IMO.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695089 is a reply to message #695084 ]
Wed, 31 May 2017 09:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:48

Jakey wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:23

I believe Carolina is a great trading partner for us this summer. Below is a trade proposal with them. Then what trade we could make with Vegas to offload some salary & what our Expansion protection list would look like if this played out. A massive trade for sure, with needs filled on both sides.

To Carolina - Nuge, Eberle, 3rd (via Stl) & 3rd (2018) rd picks (salary cap hit is $12 million)
To Oilers - J. Faulk, E. Lindholm & a 2nd (via NYR) (salary cap hit is $7.533 million)

Carolina gets 2 top 6 forwards, Nuge gives them 3 legit centers & Eberle is an upgrade over Lindholm as they Canes have Aho that has surpassed Lindholm on the depth chart.

Oilers get the top 4 RH Dmen they very much need, some needed cap room for future contracts of McDavid/Drai, plus a 2nd rd pick they can use to determine who Vegas picks in the expansion draft. Lindholm slots in one of the top 6 RW spots left vacant from Ebs moving out.

We trade that 2nd rd pick to Vegas Along with eating $1 million in salary for the next 2 years for them to take Pouliot in the expansion.

We protect using a 4/4/1 - Drai, Lucic, Lindholm & Maroon up front, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson & Faulk on the back end with Talbot in net.

It is definately a doozy of a proposal. The X factors are.... what do the Canes think of Eberle & would they believe he is an upgrade on Lindholm? Do they believe Nuge can deliver more when given more minutes of offensive opportunity? The Canes would have 2 excellent shutdown centers & still have a great young D behind them.

Well let me hear it folks, I have my earplugs in lol.



I find your trade interesting but I think Carolina is giving up too much. Nuge on his own doesn't get you Faulk. Maybe Nuge and a 3rd is enough for Faulk as the Canes are deep on young dmen but weak on good, top 6 forwards. I think Nuge in the smaller, speedier east might do better than the bigger, heavier West. I am not sure Eberle and a 3rd for Lindholm is enough. I say that because Lonholm is a right shot center that won almost 56% of faceoffs. Exactly what the Oilers need actually. So it might taken a prospect as well.

But you haven't accounted for the cap space that Edmonton is getting which is worth something to teams, especially to a team that is a lower revenue generating team like the Canes. So I don't think Carolina would give up the 2nd at all. So it might take another prospect to make up for the cap space because almost 5 mill in cap space is HUGE.


You're forgetting something important. The Hurricanes hired an old player with little to no management experience to be their GM. At some point, he's going to make a stupid move, because he doesn't know better. If I'm in Chiarelli's shoes, I'm targeting guys like Francis and Sakic and helping them on to their next big blunder. Lowball, lowball, lowball...eventually they'll do something stupid "to make room for the young guys" or something of that ilk.

The best part for Chiarelli? He's got a couple of great stand-ins if he wants to practice convincing former player GMs to do bad deals. Pull Lowe and MacTavish in to the office, pitch out ridiculous proposals to them until you find one that they would agree to, and then pick up the phone.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695091 is a reply to message #695089 ]
Wed, 31 May 2017 10:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 09:25

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:48

Jakey wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 11:23

I believe Carolina is a great trading partner for us this summer. Below is a trade proposal with them. Then what trade we could make with Vegas to offload some salary & what our Expansion protection list would look like if this played out. A massive trade for sure, with needs filled on both sides.

To Carolina - Nuge, Eberle, 3rd (via Stl) & 3rd (2018) rd picks (salary cap hit is $12 million)
To Oilers - J. Faulk, E. Lindholm & a 2nd (via NYR) (salary cap hit is $7.533 million)

Carolina gets 2 top 6 forwards, Nuge gives them 3 legit centers & Eberle is an upgrade over Lindholm as they Canes have Aho that has surpassed Lindholm on the depth chart.

Oilers get the top 4 RH Dmen they very much need, some needed cap room for future contracts of McDavid/Drai, plus a 2nd rd pick they can use to determine who Vegas picks in the expansion draft. Lindholm slots in one of the top 6 RW spots left vacant from Ebs moving out.

We trade that 2nd rd pick to Vegas Along with eating $1 million in salary for the next 2 years for them to take Pouliot in the expansion.

We protect using a 4/4/1 - Drai, Lucic, Lindholm & Maroon up front, Sekera, Klefbom, Larsson & Faulk on the back end with Talbot in net.

It is definately a doozy of a proposal. The X factors are.... what do the Canes think of Eberle & would they believe he is an upgrade on Lindholm? Do they believe Nuge can deliver more when given more minutes of offensive opportunity? The Canes would have 2 excellent shutdown centers & still have a great young D behind them.

Well let me hear it folks, I have my earplugs in lol.



I find your trade interesting but I think Carolina is giving up too much. Nuge on his own doesn't get you Faulk. Maybe Nuge and a 3rd is enough for Faulk as the Canes are deep on young dmen but weak on good, top 6 forwards. I think Nuge in the smaller, speedier east might do better than the bigger, heavier West. I am not sure Eberle and a 3rd for Lindholm is enough. I say that because Lonholm is a right shot center that won almost 56% of faceoffs. Exactly what the Oilers need actually. So it might taken a prospect as well.

But you haven't accounted for the cap space that Edmonton is getting which is worth something to teams, especially to a team that is a lower revenue generating team like the Canes. So I don't think Carolina would give up the 2nd at all. So it might take another prospect to make up for the cap space because almost 5 mill in cap space is HUGE.


You're forgetting something important. The Hurricanes hired an old player with little to no management experience to be their GM. At some point, he's going to make a stupid move, because he doesn't know better. If I'm in Chiarelli's shoes, I'm targeting guys like Francis and Sakic and helping them on to their next big blunder. Lowball, lowball, lowball...eventually they'll do something stupid "to make room for the young guys" or something of that ilk.

The best part for Chiarelli? He's got a couple of great stand-ins if he wants to practice convincing former player GMs to do bad deals. Pull Lowe and MacTavish in to the office, pitch out ridiculous proposals to them until you find one that they would agree to, and then pick up the phone.


You will get no argument from me. I am a firm believer that this offseason will be busier than most because of expansion so Chia needs to be aggressive. I know he down played being active but I call BS on that. He seems to be going out of his way to pump the tires of Nuge and especially Eberle. He just did an interview with Lebrun. I know Lebrun asked him about Eberle so I expect him to answer it. But Chia usually doesn't go into a ton of detail or go out of his way to really upsell how "important" a player like Eberle is to the team yet he's doing that. It's smart to do it to salvage the asset.

So if there is a trade to be had, I hope he does it. I think the Canes are a prime target. They need forwards, have TONS of defense. For whatever reason Faulk's name keeps coming up. He's a young, cheap, right shot, goal scoring dman. If you can get him and it costs you Nuge and something, ALL day long. Can you imagine the Oilers have 3 out of their top 4 being 25 yr old dmen all making under 5 mill for the next 3 or 4 seasons.

I also think that Chia needs to take advantage that he has 1 super elite, probably best player in the league center and then another elite center on his team. When you have centers that good, you don't need to have high priced wingers and complimentary players around them because they will elevate others. Like Crosby and Malkin do. So you can afford to bring in guys who are cheaper and maybe on paper are slightly not as skilled as say an Eberle but when you play them with McDavid or Dria will be just as productive.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695092 is a reply to message #695091 ]
Wed, 31 May 2017 16:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 09:09


You will get no argument from me. I am a firm believer that this offseason will be busier than most because of expansion so Chia needs to be aggressive. I know he down played being active but I call BS on that. He seems to be going out of his way to pump the tires of Nuge and especially Eberle. He just did an interview with Lebrun. I know Lebrun asked him about Eberle so I expect him to answer it. But Chia usually doesn't go into a ton of detail or go out of his way to really upsell how "important" a player like Eberle is to the team yet he's doing that. It's smart to do it to salvage the asset.

So if there is a trade to be had, I hope he does it. I think the Canes are a prime target. They need forwards, have TONS of defense. For whatever reason Faulk's name keeps coming up. He's a young, cheap, right shot, goal scoring dman. If you can get him and it costs you Nuge and something, ALL day long. Can you imagine the Oilers have 3 out of their top 4 being 25 yr old dmen all making under 5 mill for the next 3 or 4 seasons.

I also think that Chia needs to take advantage that he has 1 super elite, probably best player in the league center and then another elite center on his team. When you have centers that good, you don't need to have high priced wingers and complimentary players around them because they will elevate others. Like Crosby and Malkin do. So you can afford to bring in guys who are cheaper and maybe on paper are slightly not as skilled as say an Eberle but when you play them with McDavid or Dria will be just as productive.


I just hope that if that is the route the Oilers take, they have a plan for filling any holes they create immediately. I like Faulk a lot and a deal centering around RNH has the potential to be good for both teams. If the plan is to trade away 1 or 2 guys out of your top 6, there are zero proven internal solutions available, so Chia needs to be proactive in filling those spots.

I'm not sure you can rely on Lindholm to replace Eberle's offence if he plays on the right side (he scored 11 goals in each of the past 2 seasons, playing with pretty decent linemates). And if you're planning on playing him as your 3rd line centre, then expect his production to drop significantly. His 3 most common forward line-mates at 5x5 last year were: Staal, Aho and Skinner.

I'm not someone that thinks the Oilers window starts closing after McDavid's ELC expires, but it's a pretty significant advantage and it only lasts for one more year.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695094 is a reply to message #695092 ]
Wed, 31 May 2017 21:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 16:49

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 09:09


You will get no argument from me. I am a firm believer that this offseason will be busier than most because of expansion so Chia needs to be aggressive. I know he down played being active but I call BS on that. He seems to be going out of his way to pump the tires of Nuge and especially Eberle. He just did an interview with Lebrun. I know Lebrun asked him about Eberle so I expect him to answer it. But Chia usually doesn't go into a ton of detail or go out of his way to really upsell how "important" a player like Eberle is to the team yet he's doing that. It's smart to do it to salvage the asset.

So if there is a trade to be had, I hope he does it. I think the Canes are a prime target. They need forwards, have TONS of defense. For whatever reason Faulk's name keeps coming up. He's a young, cheap, right shot, goal scoring dman. If you can get him and it costs you Nuge and something, ALL day long. Can you imagine the Oilers have 3 out of their top 4 being 25 yr old dmen all making under 5 mill for the next 3 or 4 seasons.

I also think that Chia needs to take advantage that he has 1 super elite, probably best player in the league center and then another elite center on his team. When you have centers that good, you don't need to have high priced wingers and complimentary players around them because they will elevate others. Like Crosby and Malkin do. So you can afford to bring in guys who are cheaper and maybe on paper are slightly not as skilled as say an Eberle but when you play them with McDavid or Dria will be just as productive.


I just hope that if that is the route the Oilers take, they have a plan for filling any holes they create immediately. I like Faulk a lot and a deal centering around RNH has the potential to be good for both teams. If the plan is to trade away 1 or 2 guys out of your top 6, there are zero proven internal solutions available, so Chia needs to be proactive in filling those spots.

I'm not sure you can rely on Lindholm to replace Eberle's offence if he plays on the right side (he scored 11 goals in each of the past 2 seasons, playing with pretty decent linemates). And if you're planning on playing him as your 3rd line centre, then expect his production to drop significantly. His 3 most common forward line-mates at 5x5 last year were: Staal, Aho and Skinner.

I'm not someone that thinks the Oilers window starts closing after McDavid's ELC expires, but it's a pretty significant advantage and it only lasts for one more year.


It's a big problem for the Oilers. The fact is, we don't have guys waiting in the wings to replace someone like Eberle right now.

Connor Sheary had a couple AHL seasons before he joined the Penguins, and in that league he posted 27-54-81 in 88 games. The Penguins ignored the fact that he's only 5'9 and he proved he was a star player at the AHL level before he graduated to the NHL.

Jake Guentzel played 44 AHL games before getting called up halfway through this year - in those games he scored 23-25-48. Again, the Pens weren't scared off by size - Guentzel is only 5'11 and 180 lbs. Both were college players who signed with the Penguins when 21 or 22.

The Oilers have exactly one winger prospect with any real chance at an NHL job on a top two line. Their highest scoring AHL winger this year was a defenceman that they moved up because they didn't have room for him to play on the back end.

We didn't draft any right wingers last year. The two left wingers don't look like they'll be ready soon - Benson had another injury-filled campaign, and McPhee scored 10 points in 39 games in his first season with Boston College. The year before, we drafted no wingers. The year before that, we had two - one of whom (Coughlin) we've traded away, the other (Tyler Vesel) is posting decent college numbers after his third year with University of Nebraska/Omaha.

Signing a Spencer Foo - 6'0 right-shooting right winger with decent numbers would be a good next step, but it's far from a certainty.

The Blackhawks and Penguins are able to keep cheap players cycling through because they're good at acquiring good young players who they can plug & play. The Oilers have been horrible at that for years, in part because of an obsession with size. It's not a coincidence that the Blackhawks are the team that took Alex DeBrincat. They just draft and sign good players. It's a winning formula. The Oilers are not there yet, so until they start doing better on that front, we can't be quick to flush performing NHLers like Eberle, thinking that guys like Pitlick and Slepyshev can fill the void (in case you're wondering, they can't.)



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695097 is a reply to message #695094 ]
Thu, 01 June 2017 09:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 21:04

Goose wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 16:49

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 31 May 2017 09:09


You will get no argument from me. I am a firm believer that this offseason will be busier than most because of expansion so Chia needs to be aggressive. I know he down played being active but I call BS on that. He seems to be going out of his way to pump the tires of Nuge and especially Eberle. He just did an interview with Lebrun. I know Lebrun asked him about Eberle so I expect him to answer it. But Chia usually doesn't go into a ton of detail or go out of his way to really upsell how "important" a player like Eberle is to the team yet he's doing that. It's smart to do it to salvage the asset.

So if there is a trade to be had, I hope he does it. I think the Canes are a prime target. They need forwards, have TONS of defense. For whatever reason Faulk's name keeps coming up. He's a young, cheap, right shot, goal scoring dman. If you can get him and it costs you Nuge and something, ALL day long. Can you imagine the Oilers have 3 out of their top 4 being 25 yr old dmen all making under 5 mill for the next 3 or 4 seasons.

I also think that Chia needs to take advantage that he has 1 super elite, probably best player in the league center and then another elite center on his team. When you have centers that good, you don't need to have high priced wingers and complimentary players around them because they will elevate others. Like Crosby and Malkin do. So you can afford to bring in guys who are cheaper and maybe on paper are slightly not as skilled as say an Eberle but when you play them with McDavid or Dria will be just as productive.


I just hope that if that is the route the Oilers take, they have a plan for filling any holes they create immediately. I like Faulk a lot and a deal centering around RNH has the potential to be good for both teams. If the plan is to trade away 1 or 2 guys out of your top 6, there are zero proven internal solutions available, so Chia needs to be proactive in filling those spots.

I'm not sure you can rely on Lindholm to replace Eberle's offence if he plays on the right side (he scored 11 goals in each of the past 2 seasons, playing with pretty decent linemates). And if you're planning on playing him as your 3rd line centre, then expect his production to drop significantly. His 3 most common forward line-mates at 5x5 last year were: Staal, Aho and Skinner.

I'm not someone that thinks the Oilers window starts closing after McDavid's ELC expires, but it's a pretty significant advantage and it only lasts for one more year.


It's a big problem for the Oilers. The fact is, we don't have guys waiting in the wings to replace someone like Eberle right now.

Connor Sheary had a couple AHL seasons before he joined the Penguins, and in that league he posted 27-54-81 in 88 games. The Penguins ignored the fact that he's only 5'9 and he proved he was a star player at the AHL level before he graduated to the NHL.

Jake Guentzel played 44 AHL games before getting called up halfway through this year - in those games he scored 23-25-48. Again, the Pens weren't scared off by size - Guentzel is only 5'11 and 180 lbs. Both were college players who signed with the Penguins when 21 or 22.

The Oilers have exactly one winger prospect with any real chance at an NHL job on a top two line. Their highest scoring AHL winger this year was a defenceman that they moved up because they didn't have room for him to play on the back end.

We didn't draft any right wingers last year. The two left wingers don't look like they'll be ready soon - Benson had another injury-filled campaign, and McPhee scored 10 points in 39 games in his first season with Boston College. The year before, we drafted no wingers. The year before that, we had two - one of whom (Coughlin) we've traded away, the other (Tyler Vesel) is posting decent college numbers after his third year with University of Nebraska/Omaha.

Signing a Spencer Foo - 6'0 right-shooting right winger with decent numbers would be a good next step, but it's far from a certainty.

The Blackhawks and Penguins are able to keep cheap players cycling through because they're good at acquiring good young players who they can plug & play. The Oilers have been horrible at that for years, in part because of an obsession with size. It's not a coincidence that the Blackhawks are the team that took Alex DeBrincat. They just draft and sign good players. It's a winning formula. The Oilers are not there yet, so until they start doing better on that front, we can't be quick to flush performing NHLers like Eberle, thinking that guys like Pitlick and Slepyshev can fill the void (in case you're wondering, they can't.)


The way I look at it when it comes to replacing Eberle's offense and I am sure some people will disagree with me is the Oilers need to replace what he scored this past season. Eberle scored 20 goals. Now the argument I hear from people against trading Eberle is he had a down year, only scored 20 goals, he should be scoring 25+ based on the numbers. I am not going to dispute those numbers because they are right, based on his average, Eberle should score 25 goals. But there is no guarantee he will. As easy as it is to say he could rebound and score 25, he could just as easily score 20 or maybe slightly less. No one knows.

So in my opinion and I would hope a team would go into this with a similar mindset of setting realistic goals for players rather than expecting them to shoot the lights out. You go in expecting vet players to produce similar numbers to last season in most cases. As an example.
Lucic score 23-50. When you look at his numbers, that's right in the range of where he usually is. He's a 20-25 goal guy, hovers around 50-55 pts. How he got them doesn't really matter, he scored at a typical rate for his career. So it's reasonable to assume he will score similar numbers because he didn't have a super inflated number.
McDavid will score close to 100 pts, maybe slightly more. Plus since he is so young, he's only going to get better.
Leon can score 70+ given how good he is and he's so young and improving.
Nuge: You'd like to see more offense out of Nuge but he scored 18-43. So you have to think he can at least duplicate that because it's not exactly lighting it up for a player of his caliber.
Maroon scored 27. Not sure he can duplicate but if he keeps playing with McDavid and I don't see why he wouldn't, you have to think he will be over 20 again.
Klefbom: Had 12 goals. Didn't start on the #1 PP at the start, went into that. Unless the Oilers get a really good, right shot PP guy, he will be on the #1 unit. He's young, only going to get better and has a bomb. I don't think him putting up 12 goals again is a stretch unless his role dramatically changes.
Kassian had 7 goals. What did he have 3 or 4 at least called back on borderline BS calls. The way he played down the stretch and in the playoffs, he will for sure duplicate that and there is a good chance he scores more because what are the chances he gets 3 or 4 called back again.
Caggulia played 60 games, came off an injury. He had 7 goals. He came on late in the year and had a decent playoff. Pretty good chance he improves on 7 goals.
Slep: Only played 41 games. Had 4 goals. He seemed to cement himself in the line up given how many games he played in the playoffs. I have to think if he is in the line up more regular, he improves on 4 goals.
Nurse 5 goals in 44 games. Missed a ton of time being injured. I though once he got up to speed, he at times was a force, had a pretty decent playoff for the most part. Could he improve on 5 goals, probably.
Benning played 62 games, had 3 goals. They sheltered him at time being his first year. With Sekera out, they need a replacement of Sekera's 8 goals. Good chance Benning seems an increased role, might get second unit PP time which we saw a bit late.

So I think there is goals there to be had by guys internally, especially the young guys just in more experience, getting more time, etc. So I don't buy into the argument you need to find a 25-30 goal man to replace Eberle. You just need a player capable of replacing the 20 Eberle scored. Anything after that is gravy.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695098 is a reply to message #695097 ]
Thu, 01 June 2017 12:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 01 June 2017 08:06


So in my opinion and I would hope a team would go into this with a similar mindset of setting realistic goals for players rather than expecting them to shoot the lights out. You go in expecting vet players to produce similar numbers to last season in most cases. As an example.
Lucic score 23-50. When you look at his numbers, that's right in the range of where he usually is. He's a 20-25 goal guy, hovers around 50-55 pts. How he got them doesn't really matter, he scored at a typical rate for his career. So it's reasonable to assume he will score similar numbers because he didn't have a super inflated number.
McDavid will score close to 100 pts, maybe slightly more. Plus since he is so young, he's only going to get better.
Leon can score 70+ given how good he is and he's so young and improving.
Nuge: You'd like to see more offense out of Nuge but he scored 18-43. So you have to think he can at least duplicate that because it's not exactly lighting it up for a player of his caliber.
Maroon scored 27. Not sure he can duplicate but if he keeps playing with McDavid and I don't see why he wouldn't, you have to think he will be over 20 again.
Klefbom: Had 12 goals. Didn't start on the #1 PP at the start, went into that. Unless the Oilers get a really good, right shot PP guy, he will be on the #1 unit. He's young, only going to get better and has a bomb. I don't think him putting up 12 goals again is a stretch unless his role dramatically changes.
Kassian had 7 goals. What did he have 3 or 4 at least called back on borderline BS calls. The way he played down the stretch and in the playoffs, he will for sure duplicate that and there is a good chance he scores more because what are the chances he gets 3 or 4 called back again.
Caggulia played 60 games, came off an injury. He had 7 goals. He came on late in the year and had a decent playoff. Pretty good chance he improves on 7 goals.
Slep: Only played 41 games. Had 4 goals. He seemed to cement himself in the line up given how many games he played in the playoffs. I have to think if he is in the line up more regular, he improves on 4 goals.
Nurse 5 goals in 44 games. Missed a ton of time being injured. I though once he got up to speed, he at times was a force, had a pretty decent playoff for the most part. Could he improve on 5 goals, probably.
Benning played 62 games, had 3 goals. They sheltered him at time being his first year. With Sekera out, they need a replacement of Sekera's 8 goals. Good chance Benning seems an increased role, might get second unit PP time which we saw a bit late.

So I think there is goals there to be had by guys internally, especially the young guys just in more experience, getting more time, etc. So I don't buy into the argument you need to find a 25-30 goal man to replace Eberle. You just need a player capable of replacing the 20 Eberle scored. Anything after that is gravy.



Well sure, if everyone just gets better and scores more goals than they did last year, than the need to replace Eberle's goals is less of an imperative. But to me it's not even just about replacing any points that Eberle may have scored. In the last year of McDavid's ELC, the Oilers should be looking to maximizing their roster. Anything else is a mistake imo. If you just look at it as, "I think if we put Caggiula in Eberle's spot we think he might be able to come close to or match Eberle's 20 goals from last year", then I think that's the wrong approach. If they want to trade Eberle, that's fine, although I think getting a good return is probably a long shot at this point and I'm prepared to be disappointed if that happens. But they had better have more of a plan than, "the young guys will hopefully pick up the slack".

Not to mention, if you do it that way, you're one McDavid/Draisaitl injury away from disaster. A guy like Eberle has shown he can score 20-25 goals not playing with McDavid. Caggiula, Slepyshev, Pitlick, Puljujarvi don't have 25 goals combined in their careers.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695131 is a reply to message #695098 ]
Fri, 02 June 2017 11:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Thu, 01 June 2017 12:27

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 01 June 2017 08:06


So in my opinion and I would hope a team would go into this with a similar mindset of setting realistic goals for players rather than expecting them to shoot the lights out. You go in expecting vet players to produce similar numbers to last season in most cases. As an example.
Lucic score 23-50. When you look at his numbers, that's right in the range of where he usually is. He's a 20-25 goal guy, hovers around 50-55 pts. How he got them doesn't really matter, he scored at a typical rate for his career. So it's reasonable to assume he will score similar numbers because he didn't have a super inflated number.
McDavid will score close to 100 pts, maybe slightly more. Plus since he is so young, he's only going to get better.
Leon can score 70+ given how good he is and he's so young and improving.
Nuge: You'd like to see more offense out of Nuge but he scored 18-43. So you have to think he can at least duplicate that because it's not exactly lighting it up for a player of his caliber.
Maroon scored 27. Not sure he can duplicate but if he keeps playing with McDavid and I don't see why he wouldn't, you have to think he will be over 20 again.
Klefbom: Had 12 goals. Didn't start on the #1 PP at the start, went into that. Unless the Oilers get a really good, right shot PP guy, he will be on the #1 unit. He's young, only going to get better and has a bomb. I don't think him putting up 12 goals again is a stretch unless his role dramatically changes.
Kassian had 7 goals. What did he have 3 or 4 at least called back on borderline BS calls. The way he played down the stretch and in the playoffs, he will for sure duplicate that and there is a good chance he scores more because what are the chances he gets 3 or 4 called back again.
Caggulia played 60 games, came off an injury. He had 7 goals. He came on late in the year and had a decent playoff. Pretty good chance he improves on 7 goals.
Slep: Only played 41 games. Had 4 goals. He seemed to cement himself in the line up given how many games he played in the playoffs. I have to think if he is in the line up more regular, he improves on 4 goals.
Nurse 5 goals in 44 games. Missed a ton of time being injured. I though once he got up to speed, he at times was a force, had a pretty decent playoff for the most part. Could he improve on 5 goals, probably.
Benning played 62 games, had 3 goals. They sheltered him at time being his first year. With Sekera out, they need a replacement of Sekera's 8 goals. Good chance Benning seems an increased role, might get second unit PP time which we saw a bit late.

So I think there is goals there to be had by guys internally, especially the young guys just in more experience, getting more time, etc. So I don't buy into the argument you need to find a 25-30 goal man to replace Eberle. You just need a player capable of replacing the 20 Eberle scored. Anything after that is gravy.



Well sure, if everyone just gets better and scores more goals than they did last year, than the need to replace Eberle's goals is less of an imperative. But to me it's not even just about replacing any points that Eberle may have scored. In the last year of McDavid's ELC, the Oilers should be looking to maximizing their roster. Anything else is a mistake imo. If you just look at it as, "I think if we put Caggiula in Eberle's spot we think he might be able to come close to or match Eberle's 20 goals from last year", then I think that's the wrong approach. If they want to trade Eberle, that's fine, although I think getting a good return is probably a long shot at this point and I'm prepared to be disappointed if that happens. But they had better have more of a plan than, "the young guys will hopefully pick up the slack".

Not to mention, if you do it that way, you're one McDavid/Draisaitl injury away from disaster. A guy like Eberle has shown he can score 20-25 goals not playing with McDavid. Caggiula, Slepyshev, Pitlick, Puljujarvi don't have 25 goals combined in their careers.


Successful teams build down the middle and on defense. So if you want to bring in another center, hell yeah I agree. Preferably a right shot. In my opinion, the Oilers loaded up on wingers and paid up to keep Eberle because they were once weak down the middle so they needed high end wingers in the hopes they could offset weak centers.

Plus in my opinion, holding on to Eberle does nothing to improve his value even if he has a more normal year. I say that because with Vegas coming in, it's a special year. You have a team starting from scratch that you can move salary too plus teams will be scrambling to make trades. So the time to move a 6 mill player and get decent return is this offseason. Next offseason, the dust will have settled, teams will be back to the normal not being able to afford to make many trades. Plus the Oilers will be in a situation where they need to move salary with McDavid's contract coming on. So I see the value of Eberle dropping because the Oilers are forced to move salary and having to sell him off for whatever they can get for cap relief.

I believe Vegas is going to load up on defense with the intention of trading dmen to other teams for forward help. I think the Oilers will be able to turn an Eberle into a decent #4 dman. Next offseason, I don't see that happening.

[Updated on: Fri, 02 June 2017 12:01]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695137 is a reply to message #695131 ]
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 11:56


Successful teams build down the middle and on defense. So if you want to bring in another center, hell yeah I agree. Preferably a right shot. In my opinion, the Oilers loaded up on wingers and paid up to keep Eberle because they were once weak down the middle so they needed high end wingers in the hopes they could offset weak centers.

Plus in my opinion, holding on to Eberle does nothing to improve his value even if he has a more normal year. I say that because with Vegas coming in, it's a special year. You have a team starting from scratch that you can move salary too plus teams will be scrambling to make trades. So the time to move a 6 mill player and get decent return is this offseason. Next offseason, the dust will have settled, teams will be back to the normal not being able to afford to make many trades. Plus the Oilers will be in a situation where they need to move salary with McDavid's contract coming on. So I see the value of Eberle dropping because the Oilers are forced to move salary and having to sell him off for whatever they can get for cap relief.

I believe Vegas is going to load up on defense with the intention of trading dmen to other teams for forward help. I think the Oilers will be able to turn an Eberle into a decent #4 dman. Next offseason, I don't see that happening.



"Successful teams build down the middle and on defence" is one of those idiotic cliches that sportscasters toss about. Teams are built around having good players, so just planning to have good centers and thinking you can plug and play plugs in to the winger spots is foolhardy.

Remember when all the Oilers could talk about was how they needed a one-shot scoring winger? Teams covet what they don't have. Fans take for granted what they do have.

There's always landing spots for good players. This summer or next, there's a team willing to pick up Eberle. He's not going to be at his highest value coming off his lowest point total of his career and a playoffs where he failed to score in 13 games.

The cap has increased. The Oilers aren't forced to make a move. If there's a great one out there, then you make it, but the team doesn't have to move Eberle, and they'll need scoring wingers still next year. I know you've suggested the Oilers can replace his offence through "scoring by committee" but when was the last time the Oilers have been successful relying on anything "by committee"?



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695140 is a reply to message #695131 ]
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 10:56


Plus in my opinion, holding on to Eberle does nothing to improve his value even if he has a more normal year. I say that because with Vegas coming in, it's a special year. You have a team starting from scratch that you can move salary too plus teams will be scrambling to make trades. So the time to move a 6 mill player and get decent return is this offseason. Next offseason, the dust will have settled, teams will be back to the normal not being able to afford to make many trades. Plus the Oilers will be in a situation where they need to move salary with McDavid's contract coming on. So I see the value of Eberle dropping because the Oilers are forced to move salary and having to sell him off for whatever they can get for cap relief.

I believe Vegas is going to load up on defense with the intention of trading dmen to other teams for forward help. I think the Oilers will be able to turn an Eberle into a decent #4 dman. Next offseason, I don't see that happening.



Serious question for you: is there an Eberle deal out there that you wouldn't be in favour of? For example, if they traded him straight up for Troy Brouwer, would be happy with that deal?



Oilers Goal Differential
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18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695145 is a reply to message #695140 ]
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Goose wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 13:59

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 10:56


Plus in my opinion, holding on to Eberle does nothing to improve his value even if he has a more normal year. I say that because with Vegas coming in, it's a special year. You have a team starting from scratch that you can move salary too plus teams will be scrambling to make trades. So the time to move a 6 mill player and get decent return is this offseason. Next offseason, the dust will have settled, teams will be back to the normal not being able to afford to make many trades. Plus the Oilers will be in a situation where they need to move salary with McDavid's contract coming on. So I see the value of Eberle dropping because the Oilers are forced to move salary and having to sell him off for whatever they can get for cap relief.

I believe Vegas is going to load up on defense with the intention of trading dmen to other teams for forward help. I think the Oilers will be able to turn an Eberle into a decent #4 dman. Next offseason, I don't see that happening.



Serious question for you: is there an Eberle deal out there that you wouldn't be in favour of? For example, if they traded him straight up for Troy Brouwer, would be happy with that deal?


Any deal involving an older player than Eberle I would not be in favour of. Brouwer is already 31, soon to be 32, Eberle just turned 27. Brouwer isn't a good skater either. One of the knocks on Eberle is his skating.

For any trade involving Eberle. I would either like to see the Oilers get a right shot dman. Like I have said many times. I think Vegas will have lots of good dmen to choose from but scoring forwards will be hard to come by. I think they will be weak especially at center and especially offensive centers. So as I described earlier, if you are weak at center, a team can compensate by having super talented wingers. So I could see Vegas loading up on dmen, then flipping a few for forward help. Most teams are tight against the cap. So to make a trade involving a 6 mill player is difficult. If you are the Oilers, you don't want to trade out 6 mill Eberle only to bring back the same dollars or have to retain salary just to make the numbers work. What's the point then. But the Wild as an example are going to lose a good dman so are the Pathers. The Wild might lose a Dumba, the Panthers might lose a Pysk or a Petrovic. All right shots, all young improving dmen, all move the puck well. Some have more offense than others. Could the Oilers trade Eberle for any of them from those teams? Probably not. Especially not the Wild who have some key guys to sign and I can't see them wanting to bring on a 6 mill player. But maybe Vegas would trade a Dumba if they took him for an Eberle. Dumba is a soon to be 23 yr old, big hitting, bomb for a shot, emerging dman who had 11 goals, 34 pts on a very good Wild team averaging over 20 mins a night. Sounds like the right shot, PP, playing #4 dman the Oilers could use. I'd trade Eberle for him any day.

https://oilersnation.com/2017/05/31/wwydw-hypothetical-jorda n-eberle-trade-scenarios/

J. Willis wrote an interesting article the other day about 3 potential trades. The guy that got my attention is Bjustad. He's a 24 yr old, soon to be 25 yr old, 6'6, 215lbs right shot center. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/nick-bjugstad
According to his bio, has good hockey sense, good offensive instincts, shots a lot, has physical edge to his game. I think his skating is OK. McLellan likes having guys that can flip flop from center to wing. He had a brutal year this past 54 game, 7 goals, 14 pts. previous year he was 67 - 15-34, 72-24-43, 76-16-38. He's only got 280 NHL games of experience so give his age and experience, he has room to grow. The Panthers were a mess this past year and could use some scoring. He makes 4.1 mill. Could he be a fit on McDavid's wing especially given he is right handed and a likes to shoot? McDavid seemed to have great chemistry with Leon who's a better offensive player than Bjugstad but is a center. He's got a 24 goal season under his belt not long ago. Letestu a 4th line center light it up on the PP because he was a right shot, why couldn't Bjustad? Being that he is a center, if like you said an injury happens, you have some center depth where you aren't asking a Letestu to go from the 4th line to the 3nd or 3rd. You'd be asking a center who's been a 2nd//3rd line center before to do it. When you go to the playoffs and you go up against the Ducks and their big 2. Maybe you switch it up and have McDavid, then the twin towers of Leon and Bjustad at center and flip Nuge to the wing. I believe part of the problem the Oilers had with the Ducks is Nuge physically couldn't handle Getzlaf or Kesler.

So in summary, those are the types of deals I would be looking for that might be available this offseason with the expansion team there and teams by all accounts looking to be busy in what is probably a one off offseason. We have all complained for years that the Oilers are always trading from a position of weakness. Eberle had a downish year but he is poised to have a bounce back. I believe teams will see that and his value won't take as big of a hit as some think. Plus the Oilers don't have to trade anyone for cap reasons this year. So they don't have to take whatever they can get. Where as next season, they will be up against it and it will be a sell off for whatever bit part they can get. The last thing I want is like the Hawks had to where in order to get rid of Bickel, they had to throw in a Teorvinen just to get the Canes to take Bickel's contract.

[Updated on: Fri, 02 June 2017 15:23]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695148 is a reply to message #695145 ]
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So you'd trade Eberle who's full season low is 51 points straight up for Bjugstad who's best season saw him pick up 43 points?


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695157 is a reply to message #695148 ]
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Adam wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 15:22

So you'd trade Eberle who's full season low is 51 points straight up for Bjugstad who's best season saw him pick up 43 points?


Would I do that trade? I'd consider it. Why? I do that trade because in a cap world you need guys that are value contracts and bring more than one thing to your team. In a cap world every dollar counts. Eberle makes 6 mill, Bjustad makes 4.1. That's 1.9 mill. That could pay for 2/3 of a teams entire 4th line. That could be the difference between getting a good top 4 dman vs forcing an OK #5-6 to play way above his head.

At 6 mill, 20 goals and 51 pts, playing just over 16 mins a night on the second unit PP and not killing penalties isn't good value. It's even worse when the player is small, not a great skater, not physical, has consistency issues, at times has effort issues and at best is barely passable defensively on a lot of nights. Given he doesn't do anything else for your team on the defensive side, PK side, doesn't bring size, or skating and assuming his role isn't going to change, I don't see him as good value even if he had 25 goals next year. If they do nothing to the roster, not a chance he starts on the first unit PP given how good Letesu was. You have to think that JP will at some point be given the chance to come on to the second unit PP. I don't think it happens right away but given he was drafted by the current regime, he's bigger, faster has a better shot, it's going to be sooner rather than later. The logical spot when it happens is Eberle's shooters spot. So what happens to Eberle's production then?

Maybe you differ from me but I am a person that thinks in most cases, centers are worth more than wingers. Right now Bjustad is a 24 yr old NHL 2nd/3rd line, right handed center who can play on your PP and kill penalties while being big, strong, physical and likes to shoot. The Oiles have 1 right handed center. They could use another one. They so badly needed a right handed shooter on their #1 PP because Eberle, a supposed goal scorer couldn't figure out that all you had to do was stand off to the side and shoot the damn puck as soon as you got a pass from McDavid. So they had to dress their 4th line center in his spot.

The coach likes the versatility of having lots of centers in his lines, so do I. Eberle is a winger, Bjugstad is a center. I like the idea of having more centers in your lines in case an injury happens. Bjugstad is already a decent top 9 center, so if an injury happened and you have to take him off the wing and play him at center, it doesn't hurt you as much as bumping up an AHLer to play in the NHL so Letestu can slide up. Eberle is a winger. So if you lose a center, he doesn't help you. So I see the potential for a Bjugstad to be able to do more things for the Oilers than Eberle. I see that he can score some goals and given he is young and the Oilers have way better offensive players on their team, there is the potential he could match Eberle's 25+ goals. You put him on the wing with a Leon or McDavid, sorry but those 2 are WAY better centers than Barkov and Trochek and he can save them almost 2 mill in salary which is huge.

What it comes down to for me is the Oilers should be building a team that can win games, not a skills competition. For years, they tried to win the skills competition way, it didn't work.

[Updated on: Fri, 02 June 2017 16:11]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695158 is a reply to message #695157 ]
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 15:59

Adam wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 15:22

So you'd trade Eberle who's full season low is 51 points straight up for Bjugstad who's best season saw him pick up 43 points?


Would I do that trade? I'd consider it. Why? I do that trade because in a cap world you need guys that are value contracts and bring more than one thing to your team. In a cap world every dollar counts. Eberle makes 6 mill, Bjustad makes 4.1. That's 1.9 mill. That could pay for 2/3 of a teams entire 4th line. That could be the difference between getting a good top 4 dman vs forcing an OK #5-6 to play way above his head.

At 6 mill, 20 goals and 51 pts, playing just over 16 mins a night on the second unit PP and not killing penalties isn't good value. It's even worse when the player is small, not a great skater, not physical, has consistency issues, at times has effort issues and at best is barely passable defensively on a lot of nights.

Do you feel that 20 goals and 51 pts is worth 6 mill? I don't.

Everyone thinks that Eberle will have a better year. Where is the proof that its a lock? People can list off low shooting percentage and spout off his previous years, etc. How do we know that Eberle isn't settling into a 20 goal 51 pt guy from here on? Other than what you think will happen, where's the the proof it's a lock? Yakupov was scouted and said to be a lock to be a goal scoring, top 6, probably #1 line right winger but almost every scout. He might not be even in the league next year. Nothing is a lock.

Maybe you differ from me but I am a person that thinks in most cases, centers are worth more than wingers. Right now Bjustad is a 24 yr old NHL 2nd/3rd line, right handed center who can play on your PP and kill penalties while being big, strong, physical and likes to shoot.l The Oiles have 1 right handed center. They could use another one. They so badly needed a right handed shooter on their #1 PP because Eberle, a supposed goal scorer couldn't figure out that all you had to do was stand off to the side and shoot the damn puck as soon as you got a pass from McDavid. So they had to dress their 4th line center in his spot.

The coach likes the versatility of having lots of centers in his lines, so do I. Eberle is a winger, Bjugstad is a center. I like the idea of having more centers in your lines in case an injury happens. Bjugstad is already a decent top 9 center, so if an injury happened and you have to take him off the wing and play him at center, it doesn't hurt you as much as bumping up an AHLer to play in the NHL so Letestu can slide up. Eberle is a winger. So if you lose a center, he doesn't help you. So I see the potential for a Bjugstad to be able to do more things for the Oilers than Eberle. I see that he can score some goals and given he is young and the Oilers have way better offensive players on their team, there is the potential he could match Eberle's 25+ goals. You put him on the wing with a Leon or McDavid, sorry but those 2 are WAY better centers than Barkov and Trochek and he can save them almost 2 mill in salary which is huge.


Seriously, this argument is flawed.

You're saying "what if Eberle doesn't bounce back and has 50-point seasons from now on? But Bjugstad scored just FOURTEEN POINTS LAST YEAR! For $4.1MM! In case you're wondering about the math on that, let me help you: Eberle $117,647.06 per point. Bjugstad was at $292,857.14 per point.


What if Bjugstad's 7-7-14 season is his new norm? Wait you say! He was hurt, he didn't play all season. Well, what if that injury impacts him in the future? And even if you prorate his season, you're looking at a 22-23 point season still...that's less than half of Eberle's worst season, and also more expensive per point ($266,666.67/point).

Are those two fourth liners you're signing going to pick up the extra 30 points to even up this trade?



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695085 is a reply to message #674325 ]
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One thing that I was reminded about today listening to Lowetide's show is that Vegas will have a window between June 18 and 21 to sign any unprotected pending free-agents (UFA's and RFA's).

Maybe best case scenario for the Oilers is if Vegas signs Russel in that period, and then the Oilers don't have to worry about anyone else on their list at that point. Kassian would be another potential target for LV if the Oilers don't protect him.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695086 is a reply to message #695085 ]
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I always listen to what Stauffer says as he is basically the radio mouth piece of the Oilers. So far while he has said numerous times the Oilers would like to sign Russell, I have heard him say that he believes the Russell camp is looking for a contract in the 4 x 4 range. Then the follows it up as saying he doesn't see the Oilers going for a contract for that money or term.

It doesn't mean he is exactly right but I have to think that he's probably close based on what he's been told. I think the Oilers would sign Russell to a 2 yr, 3-3.5 mill all day long. After that, I am not so sure. Russell has said he wants to stay, but they all say that. I think there is a team out there that would give Russell more term and money than the Oilers. So we shall see.

I am of the opinion that Russell is a decent NHL dman best suited as a 4-5 dman. For a little guy, he's tough, skates well, is a heart and soul guy. I assume he would he a good guy in the room. So a useful player. But I wouldn't sign him for longer than 2 years and no more than high 3's.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695087 is a reply to message #695085 ]
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Goose wrote on Tue, 30 May 2017 12:54

One thing that I was reminded about today listening to Lowetide's show is that Vegas will have a window between June 18 and 21 to sign any unprotected pending free-agents (UFA's and RFA's).

Maybe best case scenario for the Oilers is if Vegas signs Russel in that period, and then the Oilers don't have to worry about anyone else on their list at that point. Kassian would be another potential target for LV if the Oilers don't protect him.


From @Capfriendly. A timeline of all the important stuff in the NHL up to July 1st

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBGNHjjU0AAMqjR.jpg:large



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695159 is a reply to message #695087 ]
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Dreger said Chi has offers on the table for Eberle but nothing that Chia will accept yet. Dreger said. It sounds like Eberler will definitely get traded. Take it for what its worth. You can see them talk about Eberle at about 1:30 of the insider trading video.

http://www.tsn.ca/video

[Updated on: Fri, 02 June 2017 16:44]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695160 is a reply to message #695159 ]
Fri, 02 June 2017 16:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 02 June 2017 16:30

Dreger said Chi has offers on the table for Eberle but nothing that Chia will accept yet. Dreger said. It sounds like Eberler will definitely get traded. Take it for what its worth. You can see them talk about Eberle at about 1:30 of the insider trading video.

http://www.tsn.ca/video


Chicago? ha. OK, that would give Chia a 95% chance of looking really bad.

First that Chicago, a team fighting with the cap every year is willing to take on Eberle's salary. Next, that we likely get peanuts for him. Third, Chicago is probably the best case for him to have a great rebound season. Quenneville knows how to coach offense and how to take full advantage of offensive talent.


edit: Scratch that, just watched the vid. I thought "Chi" mean Chicago, you just meant Chiarelli.

[Updated on: Fri, 02 June 2017 17:14]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695217 is a reply to message #695160 ]
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https://oilersnation.com/2017/06/06/what-will-the-vegas-gold en-knights-do-at-the-expansion-draft/comment-page-1/#comment -1002930

Gregor put up an article about the expansion draft. As much as I wish it wasn't true, I agree with his opinion that Vegas won't take Pouliot without some incentive. What I don't know if I agree with is the paragraph where he says due to the organizational depth, he doesn't think the Oilers could afford to offer up a draft pick sweetener.

The Oilers this year a have first, 2 3rds, a 4th, 2 5ths and a 6th. Unless they get a 1st somewhere else, no way I give up their 1st to take Pouliot. But what if it cost a 3rd? The odds of a 3rd rounder making it aren't that good. If they actually make the NHL, we are talking what, 5+ years from now? If the Oilers are heading into being a contender, I have to think that getting rid of 4 mill for the next 2 years off the cap is worth a hell of a lot more than a 3rd rounder that either never makes the NHL or is maybe 5 or 6 years away. Khairia is a 2012 3rd round pick. He's going into year 5 with the team and is on the cusp of maybe cracking the line up in a bottom 6 role. He's still not a lock yet going into year 5 with the organization.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695242 is a reply to message #695217 ]
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I know this may sound like a stupid question, but I was thinking about it the other day. What is to say that you cannot make a D man a Forward for the upcoming expansion. For instance, how would they determine a guy like Joey Laleggia, or a Byfuglien? Some of these guys on the back end who play up front as well.

Just was wondering, and I'm thinking it's determined on how you're listed within the NHL database, but then again they have some forwards like OV playing RW and LW (as per the Hall All Star snub a few years back).



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695250 is a reply to message #695242 ]
Wed, 07 June 2017 14:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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mazankowski wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 13:16

I know this may sound like a stupid question, but I was thinking about it the other day. What is to say that you cannot make a D man a Forward for the upcoming expansion. For instance, how would they determine a guy like Joey Laleggia, or a Byfuglien? Some of these guys on the back end who play up front as well.

Just was wondering, and I'm thinking it's determined on how you're listed within the NHL database, but then again they have some forwards like OV playing RW and LW (as per the Hall All Star snub a few years back).


You would need a really strong argument to protect a defenceman as a forward. If he hasn't played a significant number of games at that position last year, I don't think you'd pull the wool over anyone's eyes that way.

I think LaLeggia would be the only player where it would even be an argument for the Oilers, but we're not wasting a protected spot on him, even as a forward, so it's not really an option for the Oilers.

I don't even think the Jets or Sharks could do it with Byfuglien and Burns, because neither played any significant time as a forward this past year.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695253 is a reply to message #695250 ]
Wed, 07 June 2017 14:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 13:06


I don't even think the Jets or Sharks could do it with Byfuglien and Burns, because neither played any significant time as a forward this past year.


Ya that would be a hard sell. Now if Lamariello came out tomorrow and said that they were protecting Morgan Reilly as their 7th forward, then I could definitely see that getting approved by the NHL.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695260 is a reply to message #695250 ]
Wed, 07 June 2017 15:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 14:06

mazankowski wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 13:16

I know this may sound like a stupid question, but I was thinking about it the other day. What is to say that you cannot make a D man a Forward for the upcoming expansion. For instance, how would they determine a guy like Joey Laleggia, or a Byfuglien? Some of these guys on the back end who play up front as well.

Just was wondering, and I'm thinking it's determined on how you're listed within the NHL database, but then again they have some forwards like OV playing RW and LW (as per the Hall All Star snub a few years back).


You would need a really strong argument to protect a defenceman as a forward. If he hasn't played a significant number of games at that position last year, I don't think you'd pull the wool over anyone's eyes that way.

I think LaLeggia would be the only player where it would even be an argument for the Oilers, but we're not wasting a protected spot on him, even as a forward, so it's not really an option for the Oilers.

I don't even think the Jets or Sharks could do it with Byfuglien and Burns, because neither played any significant time as a forward this past year.


I assume it would be a lot like the NFL when a player gets the franchise tag (given the value of that tag is based on the top paid players at the tagged players position).
In that case it usually goes to both the player and team submitting why they have a case. Given sports today it is very easy to see where a player lines up on the field/ice.

Every guy that is worth protecting would have enough video evidence to very quickly identify what position they are.

In fact, I would bet teams have been given a list of players and how they qualify for any part of the protection requirements/limitations already so if they had any disputes they would have been raised in advance



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695331 is a reply to message #695260 ]
Fri, 09 June 2017 05:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mazankowski  is currently offline mazankowski
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PlusOne wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 14:13

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 14:06

mazankowski wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 13:16

I know this may sound like a stupid question, but I was thinking about it the other day. What is to say that you cannot make a D man a Forward for the upcoming expansion. For instance, how would they determine a guy like Joey Laleggia, or a Byfuglien? Some of these guys on the back end who play up front as well.

Just was wondering, and I'm thinking it's determined on how you're listed within the NHL database, but then again they have some forwards like OV playing RW and LW (as per the Hall All Star snub a few years back).


You would need a really strong argument to protect a defenceman as a forward. If he hasn't played a significant number of games at that position last year, I don't think you'd pull the wool over anyone's eyes that way.

I think LaLeggia would be the only player where it would even be an argument for the Oilers, but we're not wasting a protected spot on him, even as a forward, so it's not really an option for the Oilers.

I don't even think the Jets or Sharks could do it with Byfuglien and Burns, because neither played any significant time as a forward this past year.


I assume it would be a lot like the NFL when a player gets the franchise tag (given the value of that tag is based on the top paid players at the tagged players position).
In that case it usually goes to both the player and team submitting why they have a case. Given sports today it is very easy to see where a player lines up on the field/ice.

Every guy that is worth protecting would have enough video evidence to very quickly identify what position they are.

In fact, I would bet teams have been given a list of players and how they qualify for any part of the protection requirements/limitations already so if they had any disputes they would have been raised in advance



Thanks guys; yeah I totally understand the optics of it, and it would be a hard sell, but was wondering, what the rule is on it. PlusOne you're probably right, the NHL likely sent out a list for every teams 50 man roster which indicated who was a forward, who was a d-man, who was a goaltender and who was eligible for the expansion draft.. At that point, if an argument were to be made behind closed doors, then it could occur.

But just found it funny that if that was a loophole and say a team like Edmonton decided to try and do it, perhaps there would be other teams who are going to lose a great guy on the backend, jump on that train.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695265 is a reply to message #674325 ]
Wed, 07 June 2017 15:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Pierre LeBrun‏ @PierreVLeBrun
Oilers and agent for a pending UFA d-man Kris Russell briefly spoke yesterday to get ball rolling...


Hmmm...how far is that ball gonna be rolling before the expansion draft?



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695273 is a reply to message #695265 ]
Wed, 07 June 2017 16:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 15:56

Pierre LeBrun‏ @PierreVLeBrun
Oilers and agent for a pending UFA d-man Kris Russell briefly spoke yesterday to get ball rolling...


Hmmm...how far is that ball gonna be rolling before the expansion draft?


It wouldn't shock me if they came up with a contract, slapped it in a drawer then 1 min into free agency it gets submitted if he is indeed signed. I wouldn't be upset if they signed Russell to a 2 yr contract that started with a 3. I wouldn't go too much higher or longer than that.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695299 is a reply to message #695273 ]
Thu, 08 June 2017 10:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilPeg  is currently offline OilPeg
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 17:30

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 15:56

Pierre LeBrun‏ @PierreVLeBrun
Oilers and agent for a pending UFA d-man Kris Russell briefly spoke yesterday to get ball rolling...


Hmmm...how far is that ball gonna be rolling before the expansion draft?


It wouldn't shock me if they came up with a contract, slapped it in a drawer then 1 min into free agency it gets submitted if he is indeed signed. I wouldn't be upset if they signed Russell to a 2 yr contract that started with a 3. I wouldn't go too much higher or longer than that.


They don't have to even wait until free agency, they can sign the deal as soon as the expansion draft freeze is lifted. It would be extremely foolish to sign the contract before the expansion draft though.



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695341 is a reply to message #695299 ]
Fri, 09 June 2017 11:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Hibernia  is currently offline Hibernia
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OilPeg wrote on Thu, 08 June 2017 13:41

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 17:30

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2017 15:56

Pierre LeBrun‏ @PierreVLeBrun
Oilers and agent for a pending UFA d-man Kris Russell briefly spoke yesterday to get ball rolling...


Hmmm...how far is that ball gonna be rolling before the expansion draft?


It wouldn't shock me if they came up with a contract, slapped it in a drawer then 1 min into free agency it gets submitted if he is indeed signed. I wouldn't be upset if they signed Russell to a 2 yr contract that started with a 3. I wouldn't go too much higher or longer than that.


They don't have to even wait until free agency, they can sign the deal as soon as the expansion draft freeze is lifted. It would be extremely foolish to sign the contract before the expansion draft though.


Yup. I doubt you see any "impact" UFAs signed before the expansion draft unless the team wants to protect them.

I also don't think you'll see many trades happening that don't involve the Knights. Why? Well, most of the rumours out there that seem to have any legs to them are about d-men. It seems that certain teams want to deal from their blueline rather than lose the player to the draft. However, this doesn't really make sense on it's own. 1) The team is still going to lose a player. 2) The other team that acquires that blueliner either needs to have a really bad blueline already, in order to stick with the 7-3-1 protection system or they're going to have to switch to a 4-4-1 system and risk losing one of three forwards they could protect. And since most teams will want to protect more than 4 forwards, I don't see them giving up much value to get that fourth forward. (Now, all of this goes out the window, if it's a pure hockey deal where high-end talent is dealt.)

If anything, I see Vegas using some of their extra picks on extra blueliners with the intention of dealing those for future assets. (Prospect who can immediately play on farm and a pick.)



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695359 is a reply to message #674325 ]
Sat, 10 June 2017 22:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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I ran the mock expansion draft on CapFriendly tonight (https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft). It's going to be ugly for the Knights.

I had the site auto-protect based on most popular picks, then manipulated it for a couple of quirks (ie. changed away from Shane Doan, despite UFA status, protected by Arizona). I tended to pick young rather than old, and tried not to get too many that were UFA next year (I finished with 5 of 30 in that situation). Interestingly, the required cap hit was easily reached, without taking on any awful contracts like Dustin Brown. It was actually harder to reach the required number under contract for next year. I ended up with 10 RFAs - just meeting the requirement that 20 have to have at least one year left.

I ended up using all my extra picks on defencemen, so finished with 13, or which about 10 are legitimate NHLers. Unfortunately A) almost everyone shoots left, and my top 4 looked like Jonas Brodin/Jack Johnson/Calvin De Haan/Josh Manson. There's trade bait amongst the rest, but it's no one special, unless you're putting Nick Holden or Martin Marincin in your top four. It's almost certain they'll make trades giving some of these guys away for picks or prospects, but there is no one they'd likely have on the block there that I'd give up Eberle or a first round pick for. I definitely wouldn't bother signing Gryba though...we should be able to get someone better back relatively cheap if we need them.

It's interesting because there's some teams like Anaheim who have several really good players that are being left open, but they can only lose one, while teams like Calgary, Arizona, Toronto, and Carolina have ridiculously few players of any use that they're at risk of losing. I had Bouma, Jooris, Marincin and Dahlbeck as my picks from each of those teams.

Forwards look pretty bleak too...unless some of my riskier picks (Yakupov, Nichushkin) pay off. There's not a lot left over when many teams can protect their top 7 forwards and then the young players are exempt too.

The only position that looks good is in goal. I picked up Luongo (although if Reimer was available instead, I'd have picked him too), Matt Murray and Malcolm Subban. I passed up Halak to take De Haan out of NYI due to age and contract status, and because I just didn't need another starting goalie (and with the drama last year in Long Island, Halak isn't likely to get a big price in a trade).

In case you're wondering, I did take Reinhart from the Oilers. I'd love to see them take Fayne or Pouliot and solve us a headache, but I think it'll take a decent draft pick to convince them to do that.

I mostly did this to see if they would have enough defencemen that they could afford to trade someone who could step in to the #3 or #4 spot for the Oilers and play on our powerplay. The answer? A resounding no. Nick Holden is the only defenceman I picked who topped 30 points last year, and Manson (who I really like but who I doubt they'd be excited to move) is just about the only right shot of the whole bunch.

The good news? Vegas should really be guaranteed win night next year, unless their goalie steals them the game...

[Updated on: Sat, 10 June 2017 22:35]


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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695364 is a reply to message #674325 ]
Sun, 11 June 2017 14:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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So I took the time and tried to run a full mock draft last night.

Some observations:

Carolina - they can only protect one of Cam Ward and Scott Darling. After trading for and signing Darling, you would think he's the guy they want moving forward. Ward has a M-NTC, but I think it is only NMC that force protection. Given that there is nothing of value the Hurricanes have, I expect one of those two - likely Ward - to end up in Vegas.

Pittsburgh - it'll be Murray or Fleury, unless a trade is done prior to the draft. In either case, you are taking whomever is available, but my guess is the Pens will look at Fleury's M-NTC, and work with a team on it to get a deal done quickly after the Cup Finals. At that point, Vegas is likely taking Brian Dumoulin, which is a much lesser asset to lose.

Anaheim - they would love get rid of Bieksa's contract, but I don't see that happening. If they don't, they'll still likely protect four defensemen (unless they move Vatanen). If their rosters sits as is, they'll likely expose Silfverberg and Manson... and if I'm Vegas, I can't pass on Silfverberg. The only way for Anaheim to protect Silfverberg is to move either Bieksa or Vatanen. I don't see a scenerio where Josh Manson gets protected, but he may not be claimed if Silfverberg is available.

Florida - they might be the most interesting team to watch at expansion. They can only protect one of Demers, Petrovic, and Pysyk; they can also only protect one of Reimer and Luongo. My guess is they protect Reimer and hope that the age of Luongo and the appeal of a defenseman scares off Vegas from claiming Luongo. If that happens, no-brainer for me: Vegas claims one of the defenseman. But if Florida protect Luongo, do you claim Reimer instead of Petrovic or Pysyk? Exposing Reimer may let them keep all three defensemen, despite not being able to protect two of them.

There are going to be some awful selections from a few teams, including Arizona, Philadelphia, Montreal, and Toronto.

___________

My guess it the following teams protect four defensemen:

Anaheim (Fowler, Bieksa, Lindholm, Vatanen)... likely lose Jakob Silfverberg Josh Manson.

Nashville (Subban, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm)... likely lose Colin Wilson or Craig Smith.

Arizona (Ekman-Larsson, Goligoski, Murphy, Schenn)... likely lose, I don't know, Louis Domingue?

Los Angeles (Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin, Forbort)... likely lose Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, or Jordan Nolan. If they're lucky they lose Dustin Brown or Marian Gaborik.

San Jose (Burns, Vlasic, Braun, Martin)... likely lose Brenden Dillon, Joel Ward, Chris Tierney, Janik Hansen, or Melker Karlsson.

Winnipeg (Byfuglien, Enstrom, Myers, Trouba)... likely lose Adam Lowry.

______________

And finally, I think we will see some okay-ish players on bad contracts dangled out there to see if Vegas will claim them and provide cap relief. Some names that wouldn't surprise me to see exposed:

- Matt Beleskey (BOS)
- Tyler Ennis (BUF)
- Troy Brouwer (CAL)
- Marcus Kruger (CHI)
- Carl Soderberg (COL)
- Justin Abdelkeder (DET)
- Darren Helm (DET)
- Jimmy Howard (DET)
- Benoit Pouliot (EDM)
- Dustin Brown (LA)
- Marian Gaborik (LA)
- Tomas Plekanec (MON)
- Craig Smith (NSH)
- Colin Wilson (NSH)
- Nikolai Kulemin (NYI)
- Jaroslav Halak (NYI)
- Clarke MacArthur (OTT)
- Marc Methot (OTT)
- Andrew MacDonald (PHI)
- Carl Hagelin (PIT)
- Joel Ward (SJ)
- Jori Lehtera (STL)
- Lars Eller (WSH)


Interesting trade targets for the Oilers:

NYI - Travis Hamonic
FLA - Alex Petrovic
OTT - Marc Methot
MIN - Jason Zucker
ANH - Jacob Silfverberg



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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695365 is a reply to message #695364 ]
Sun, 11 June 2017 14:46 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Speaking of the Ducks and Bieska. I saw from Friedman's 30 thoughts that Monday is the last day teams can ask players to waive their NMC for the expansion draft.

How do you even start that awkward conversation with a player? :) Asking them to allow themselves to be exposed for the good of the team, risking that they'll have to move on to Vegas. I really hope Bieksa doesn't give in, if the Ducks even have the sack to try to get him to waive. Friedman also comments on the Sens possibly asking Phaneuf, and the Panthers asking Yandle to waive.



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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Expansion Draft :: Guesses [message #695366 is a reply to message #674325 ]
Sun, 11 June 2017 15:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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For anyone interested, my mock draft:

ANH - Jacob Silfverberg
ARI - Louis Domingue
BOS - Riley Nash
BUF - Josh Gorges
CAL - Curtis Lazar
CAR - Cam Ward
CHI - Marcus Kruger
COL - Nikita Zadorov
CLB - David Savard
DAL - Valeri Nichushkin
DET - Jimmy Howard
EDM - Benoit Pouliot
FLA - Alex Petrovic
LA - Trevor Lewis
MIN - Jason Zucker
MON - Brandon Davidson
NSH - Colin Wilson
NJ - Jon Merrill
NYI - Thomas Hickey
NYR - Michael Grabner
OTT - Zack Smith
PHI - Nick Cousins
PIT - Brian Dumoulin
SJ - Chris Tierney
STL - Magnus Paajarvi
TB - Vladislav Namestnikov
TOR - Brendan Leipsic
VAN - Luca Sbisa
WAS - Nate Schmidt
WPG - Adam Lowry


Zucker (47) / Wilson (35) / Silfverberg (49)
Namestnikov (28) / Smith (32) / Grabner (40)
Pouliot (14) / Lowry (29) / Paajarvi (13)
Tierney (23) / Lewis (24) / Nash (17)
Leipsic (3)


Gorges (6) / Savard (23)
Hickey (20) / Petrovic (14)
Schmidt (17) / Dumoulin (15)
Zadorov (10) / Sbisa (13)

Howard (.927)
Ward (.905)
Domingue (.908)

Other (AHL?):
MON - Brandon Davidson (3)
NJ - Jon Merrill (6)
PHI - Nick Cousins (16)
CAL - Curtis Lazar (4)

Not great at all, although there are a few decent pieces to start with.



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