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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818912 is a reply to message #818831 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 10:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
Messages: 724
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

You know what, if I'm Phoenix, I don't think I trade Chych at all. yeah he wanted a trade, but staying put is nothing new. He requested it 2 years ago initially.
If the offer wasn't right this time, they should have kept him to the end of the season and tried again.
Their initial ask was bonkers high, pushed buyers away, then sold for a terrible return. There was a middle ground... Seriously, I'd be a GM for HALF what some of those morons get paid!



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818914 is a reply to message #818912 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3823
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818915 is a reply to message #818914 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 11:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7698
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.

I don't think it's floor circumvention. There's a difference between IR and LTIR for a reason and it's up to the team to decide how to use their injured reserve. It doesn't help the capped teams all that much and no one cares about Arizona.

The people who should be upset are in the NHLPA offices. If Arizona is using LTIR players to hit the cap floor it means actual players are getting less money overall.



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818916 is a reply to message #818915 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 11:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3823
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.

I don't think it's floor circumvention. There's a difference between IR and LTIR for a reason and it's up to the team to decide how to use their injured reserve. It doesn't help the capped teams all that much and no one cares about Arizona.

The people who should be upset are in the NHLPA offices. If Arizona is using LTIR players to hit the cap floor it means actual players are getting less money overall.

They are adding players to their roster who physically can't play anymore to make the CBA required floor. How do you think that isn't floor circumvention? I assume when they negotiated the CBA, the intent of the floor was the minimum required to play active players.

I'm not angry the Yotes is doing it, it's in the rules. I am angry at the league for talking out of 2 sides of their mouths when it comes to cap circumvention. They worry about teams doing things to get better, thus improving the product on the ice for the fans and views but don't care that a team is doing it the other way to get worse thus reducing the product. Next season when the Yotes are at the floor thanks to 16 mill paid to injured guys, they are icing an even more inferior product than other teams. That isn't right.

[Updated on: Thu, 02 March 2023 11:14]


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818917 is a reply to message #818916 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 11:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7698
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:08

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.

I don't think it's floor circumvention. There's a difference between IR and LTIR for a reason and it's up to the team to decide how to use their injured reserve. It doesn't help the capped teams all that much and no one cares about Arizona.

The people who should be upset are in the NHLPA offices. If Arizona is using LTIR players to hit the cap floor it means actual players are getting less money overall.

They are adding players to their roster who physically can't play anymore to make the CBA required floor. How do you think that isn't floor circumvention? I assume when they negotiated the CBA, the intent of the floor was the minimum required to play active players.

You should be very careful reading intent when you look at a collective agreement. Especially a horrifically written one like the NHL CBA. Circumvention is a full article in the CBA. It doesn't talk about IR or LTIR. They're simple tools for the club to use as they see fit which would be covered under the very important, but very short, management rights article. For the uninitiated in union contracts, management rights include the right to manage poorly.

Honestly, I'm not even sure I can stand behind my statement that I'd be annoyed the Coyotes aren't paying their actual players more. Increasing salaries by the 14 million Arizona has on the IR would probably cause an escrow increase. I'd probably just be happy some fringe players are getting NHL cheques and move on with my life.



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818918 is a reply to message #818917 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 11:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3823
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:22

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:08

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.

I don't think it's floor circumvention. There's a difference between IR and LTIR for a reason and it's up to the team to decide how to use their injured reserve. It doesn't help the capped teams all that much and no one cares about Arizona.

The people who should be upset are in the NHLPA offices. If Arizona is using LTIR players to hit the cap floor it means actual players are getting less money overall.

They are adding players to their roster who physically can't play anymore to make the CBA required floor. How do you think that isn't floor circumvention? I assume when they negotiated the CBA, the intent of the floor was the minimum required to play active players.

You should be very careful reading intent when you look at a collective agreement. Especially a horrifically written one like the NHL CBA. Circumvention is a full article in the CBA. It doesn't talk about IR or LTIR. They're simple tools for the club to use as they see fit which would be covered under the very important, but very short, management rights article. For the uninitiated in union contracts, management rights include the right to manage poorly.

Honestly, I'm not even sure I can stand behind my statement that I'd be annoyed the Coyotes aren't paying their actual players more. Increasing salaries by the 14 million Arizona has on the IR would probably cause an escrow increase. I'd probably just be happy some fringe players are getting NHL cheques and move on with my life.

I saw this on twitter.
Yotes have 67.2m cap hit now. 57.6% of that is allocated to basically retirements (guy who aren't retired yet but will never play again), cap retention from trades and contract dumps.

There is something wrong with that. I doubt that is how the league or PA saw that going.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818921 is a reply to message #818918 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 11:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7698
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:30

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:22

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:08

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 11:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.

I don't think it's floor circumvention. There's a difference between IR and LTIR for a reason and it's up to the team to decide how to use their injured reserve. It doesn't help the capped teams all that much and no one cares about Arizona.

The people who should be upset are in the NHLPA offices. If Arizona is using LTIR players to hit the cap floor it means actual players are getting less money overall.

They are adding players to their roster who physically can't play anymore to make the CBA required floor. How do you think that isn't floor circumvention? I assume when they negotiated the CBA, the intent of the floor was the minimum required to play active players.

You should be very careful reading intent when you look at a collective agreement. Especially a horrifically written one like the NHL CBA. Circumvention is a full article in the CBA. It doesn't talk about IR or LTIR. They're simple tools for the club to use as they see fit which would be covered under the very important, but very short, management rights article. For the uninitiated in union contracts, management rights include the right to manage poorly.

Honestly, I'm not even sure I can stand behind my statement that I'd be annoyed the Coyotes aren't paying their actual players more. Increasing salaries by the 14 million Arizona has on the IR would probably cause an escrow increase. I'd probably just be happy some fringe players are getting NHL cheques and move on with my life.

I saw this on twitter.
Yotes have 67.2m cap hit now. 57.6% of that is allocated to basically retirements (guy who aren't retired yet but will never play again), cap retention from trades and contract dumps.

There is something wrong with that. I doubt that is how the league or PA saw that going.

I don't think anyone should be surprised the Coyotes are being used as a bad contract dumping ground. Maybe they didn't see it going to this extreme, but that's very different than declaring it morally or contractually wrong.

I wouldn't bet on this even being brought up at the next negotiation. No one is harmed and there are benefits. I really think this is a case of people not understanding how collective agreements (or really any employment contract) work.



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818955 is a reply to message #818914 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 16:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
Messages: 10052
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 02 March 2023 10:46

Yotes just traded for Vorachek from Columbus. Apparently he is done for his career as reported by a Columbus reporter. So now the Yotes will have enough cap space to meet the floor this year and next year if they want to trade off higher priced core pieces. They can keep iguys like Weber and his 7.8 and Vorachek and his 8.25 just on IR next year, have insurance pay their salaries and that sounds for 16 mill of cap space taken up to meet the floor.

This is just so wrong. That is clear cap circumvention in the opposite way.


Epic work by the Yotes. Voracek and Patty Kane added to the Coyotes legends list.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818913 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 10:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Bruins re-sign Pastrnak to 8 year/$90M extension ($11.25M/year).

Got to think that is now the floor for any Draisaitl extension.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/bruins-sign-david-pastr nak-to-eight-year-90m-extension/



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818922 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 12:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Boston just pulled a Tampa, put T.Hall on LTIR ($6M).. then picked up Tyler Bertuzzi at 50% retained ($2.375M)

No chance NHL Corp. would ever look sideways at Bruins for cap circumvention.. Jacobs runs it.

.. Maybe Oilers follow suit.. just put Yamo on LTIR until the playoffs and use the $3M on a rental

[Updated on: Thu, 02 March 2023 12:24]


McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818926 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 13:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Boston just signed Pasternak for $11.25M x 8 .. he'll be 34 at the end of it

Should be some interesting UFA signings this summer.. maybe the top players suck all the cap space out of the league and the non-franchise players are left with the left overs.. could be some bargains at the end of summer.



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818928 is a reply to message #818926 ]
Thu, 02 March 2023 13:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
Messages: 936
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC

No Cups

With Boston powering up (as if they needed to) I hope the east is a highly entertaining bloodbath. I can’t imagine the Leafs we saw last night being up for what’s ahead of them.

[Updated on: Fri, 03 March 2023 00:51]


Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818988 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Fri, 03 March 2023 11:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilfan94  is currently offline oilfan94
Messages: 354
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

No Cups

Penguins trade Brock McGinn (a 4th liner with 10+ goals two years in a row and 4 times in his career) along with a 3rd rounder. Makes it look like we got him for a steal a couple years ago only giving up a 4th.


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818998 is a reply to message #818988 ]
Fri, 03 March 2023 16:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6933
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

oilfan94 wrote on Fri, 03 March 2023 11:33

Penguins trade Brock McGinn (a 4th liner with 10+ goals two years in a row and 4 times in his career) along with a 3rd rounder. Makes it look like we got him for a steal a couple years ago only giving up a 4th.


I'd suggest that the reason for the add'l cost is that the Penguins wanted them to take on Brock McGinn...



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818992 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Fri, 03 March 2023 12:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
kungpaobenji27  is currently offline kungpaobenji27
Messages: 308
Registered: August 2003
Location: Irving, Texas

No Cups

-Ducks gave Klingberg a one year contract for the sole purpose of trading him at the deadline for futures....
-They sit the guy last few games for the sole purpose of liquidating him.....
-We're 1 minute away from the deadline..and he's still in Anaheim as Im typing this....
-Hoping Holland can get him for cheap....



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818993 is a reply to message #818992 ]
Fri, 03 March 2023 13:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilfan94  is currently offline oilfan94
Messages: 354
Registered: June 2006
Location: USA

No Cups

kungpaobenji27 wrote on Fri, 03 March 2023 14:59

-Ducks gave Klingberg a one year contract for the sole purpose of trading him at the deadline for futures....
-They sit the guy last few games for the sole purpose of liquidating him.....
-We're 1 minute away from the deadline..and he's still in Anaheim as Im typing this....
-Hoping Holland can get him for cheap....


Nope, Minnesota got him.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #818997 is a reply to message #818993 ]
Fri, 03 March 2023 15:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3823
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

According to Capfriendly, the Yotes roster as it sits today just counting players that are actually able to play is worth just under 40.2 mill. So 20 mill UNDER the cap floor. They have 28.1 on IR and just over 4 mill in retention.

What an embarrassment.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819163 is a reply to message #818997 ]
Mon, 06 March 2023 12:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
Messages: 724
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

I hope they get Bedard!


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819200 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 02:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
Messages: 2918
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

2 Cups

Not helping that Vegas, Seattle, and LA just won't lose.


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819205 is a reply to message #819200 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 09:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
kungpaobenji27  is currently offline kungpaobenji27
Messages: 308
Registered: August 2003
Location: Irving, Texas

No Cups

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 03:33

Not helping that Vegas, Seattle, and LA just won't lose.


Calgary isn't quite dead yet either pulling off a miracle win in Dallas last night....



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819206 is a reply to message #819205 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 09:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7698
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

kungpaobenji27 wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:33

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 03:33

Not helping that Vegas, Seattle, and LA just won't lose.


Calgary isn't quite dead yet either pulling off a miracle win in Dallas last night....

They're basically dead. 5 back, look like garbage, ugly uniforms, and have played 3 more games than Colorado is a bad formula. They do have a game left against Winnipeg so maybe but I wouldn't be putting money on it unless I got good odds.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819207 is a reply to message #819206 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 10:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
benv  is currently offline benv
Messages: 559
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:43

kungpaobenji27 wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:33

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 03:33

Not helping that Vegas, Seattle, and LA just won't lose.


Calgary isn't quite dead yet either pulling off a miracle win in Dallas last night....

They're basically dead. 5 back, look like garbage, ugly uniforms, and have played 3 more games than Colorado is a bad formula. They do have a game left against Winnipeg so maybe but I wouldn't be putting money on it unless I got good odds.


Surprisingly MoneyPuck has Calgary at 41.3% to make the playoffs, which seems awfully high to me, especially considering the eight teams currently in playoff positions are all at over 80% to make it. I also don't understand how Nashville, with the same amount of points as Calgary and 3 games in hand has comparatively only an 18.1% chance to make it. Nashville's number seems about right, and I think Calgary's should be sub 10%.

Someone must have pumped up Calgary's winning chances in their simulation algorithm.

Oh, and in case your curious the Oilers are at 96.2% to make it:

https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm


Interestingly it also has the Oilers with the 2nd best cup winning chance at 13.5%--behind just Carolina (17.8%) and ahead of Boston (9.1%)!

[Updated on: Tue, 07 March 2023 10:11]


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819208 is a reply to message #819207 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 11:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3823
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Is the person that operates moneypuck a Canes fan? They have them as the highest to make the second round, 3rd round, finals and win the cup. I wouldn't pick them at all.


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819209 is a reply to message #819207 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 12:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7698
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

benv wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 10:07

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:43

kungpaobenji27 wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:33

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 03:33

Not helping that Vegas, Seattle, and LA just won't lose.


Calgary isn't quite dead yet either pulling off a miracle win in Dallas last night....

They're basically dead. 5 back, look like garbage, ugly uniforms, and have played 3 more games than Colorado is a bad formula. They do have a game left against Winnipeg so maybe but I wouldn't be putting money on it unless I got good odds.


Surprisingly MoneyPuck has Calgary at 41.3% to make the playoffs, which seems awfully high to me, especially considering the eight teams currently in playoff positions are all at over 80% to make it. I also don't understand how Nashville, with the same amount of points as Calgary and 3 games in hand has comparatively only an 18.1% chance to make it. Nashville's number seems about right, and I think Calgary's should be sub 10%.

Someone must have pumped up Calgary's winning chances in their simulation algorithm.

Oh, and in case your curious the Oilers are at 96.2% to make it:

https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm


Interestingly it also has the Oilers with the 2nd best cup winning chance at 13.5%--behind just Carolina (17.8%) and ahead of Boston (9.1%)!

Calgary has a butter soft Pacific heavy schedule, which is probably why the Oilers are getting too good of odds to win it all. It's easier to win a cup if it's easier to get out of the division. Same for Carolina. The metro seems a lot easier of a road than the Atlantic.

Of Calgary's 18 remain games they have:
3 against Anaheim
1 against Arizona
2 against San Jose
2 against Vancouver
1 against Chicago
1 against Ottawa
1 against Nashville in the last week of the season.

Quick math says that's 7/18 against playoff teams:
2 LA
2 VGK
1 Dal
1 Win
1 Min

and I think LA, Minny, and Winny aren't very good.




Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819210 is a reply to message #819209 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 12:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7698
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Funny thing I saw on Moneypuck. In their default ranking (goals saved above expected) they have Stuart Skinner as the number 47 goalie, Jack Campbell as number 93 of 95 ahead of only Elvis and Spencer Martin, and Matt Berlin at 59.


Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819213 is a reply to message #819209 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 13:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
benv  is currently offline benv
Messages: 559
Registered: May 2006
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 12:08

benv wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 10:07

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:43

kungpaobenji27 wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 09:33

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 03:33

Not helping that Vegas, Seattle, and LA just won't lose.


Calgary isn't quite dead yet either pulling off a miracle win in Dallas last night....

They're basically dead. 5 back, look like garbage, ugly uniforms, and have played 3 more games than Colorado is a bad formula. They do have a game left against Winnipeg so maybe but I wouldn't be putting money on it unless I got good odds.


Surprisingly MoneyPuck has Calgary at 41.3% to make the playoffs, which seems awfully high to me, especially considering the eight teams currently in playoff positions are all at over 80% to make it. I also don't understand how Nashville, with the same amount of points as Calgary and 3 games in hand has comparatively only an 18.1% chance to make it. Nashville's number seems about right, and I think Calgary's should be sub 10%.

Someone must have pumped up Calgary's winning chances in their simulation algorithm.

Oh, and in case your curious the Oilers are at 96.2% to make it:

https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm


Interestingly it also has the Oilers with the 2nd best cup winning chance at 13.5%--behind just Carolina (17.8%) and ahead of Boston (9.1%)!

Calgary has a butter soft Pacific heavy schedule, which is probably why the Oilers are getting too good of odds to win it all. It's easier to win a cup if it's easier to get out of the division. Same for Carolina. The metro seems a lot easier of a road than the Atlantic.

Of Calgary's 18 remain games they have:
3 against Anaheim
1 against Arizona
2 against San Jose
2 against Vancouver
1 against Chicago
1 against Ottawa
1 against Nashville in the last week of the season.

Quick math says that's 7/18 against playoff teams:
2 LA
2 VGK
1 Dal
1 Win
1 Min

and I think LA, Minny, and Winny aren't very good.




It has to be more than just Calgary's soft schedule. Despite being a longshot to make the playoffs, they have them at 5% to win the cup which is higher than all teams ahead of them in the Pacific except Edmonton (Vegas 2.4%, Seattle 4.6%, LA 3.3%). Obviously the site seems to think Calgary is really good, and their low point total is due to bad luck.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819214 is a reply to message #819213 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 14:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Pages like this are why I have a hard time at times buying into any advanced stats because there seems to be no set way to come up with stats so they are bias to the guy doing them.

The Flames are 5 pts out of the last Wild Card behind the Avs with the Avs having 3 games in hand. How can this spreadsheet say the Flames have a higher % chance to win the the Cup over the Avs, over twice as good odds, when the Flames aren't even in the playoffs and the Avs are twice as likely to make the playoffs?

I sure there are all kinds of supposed factors depending on what division, etc but it doesn't make any sense but as a sane person, today a team out of the playoffs should not have a better chance as teams in the playoffs to win the cup.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819215 is a reply to message #819213 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 14:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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benv wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 13:53



It has to be more than just Calgary's soft schedule. Despite being a longshot to make the playoffs, they have them at 5% to win the cup which is higher than all teams ahead of them in the Pacific except Edmonton (Vegas 2.4%, Seattle 4.6%, LA 3.3%). Obviously the site seems to think Calgary is really good, and their low point total is due to bad luck.


You are correct. MP has Calgary as their #5 team in the power ranking (Oilers are #2). The categories that go into the power ranking are fed into the game prediction model which are used to create playoff odds. Interesting stuff.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819648 is a reply to message #819215 ]
Fri, 17 March 2023 10:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
benv  is currently offline benv
Messages: 559
Registered: May 2006
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 14:06

benv wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 13:53



It has to be more than just Calgary's soft schedule. Despite being a longshot to make the playoffs, they have them at 5% to win the cup which is higher than all teams ahead of them in the Pacific except Edmonton (Vegas 2.4%, Seattle 4.6%, LA 3.3%). Obviously the site seems to think Calgary is really good, and their low point total is due to bad luck.


You are correct. MP has Calgary as their #5 team in the power ranking (Oilers are #2). The categories that go into the power ranking are fed into the game prediction model which are used to create playoff odds. Interesting stuff.


I was curious to see if recent losses to Anaheim and Arizona has lowered Calgary's rankings in the eyes of MoneyPuck:

Nope; they've actually moved up. MoneyPuck now considers them the 2nd best team in the league behind only Carolina (Oilers down to 5th).

I don't have time to go into the weeds in their analytics but they obviously love whatever the Flames are doing on the ice, but just aren't getting results with.

https://www.moneypuck.com/power.htm



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819649 is a reply to message #819648 ]
Fri, 17 March 2023 11:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
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Maybe the love what the Flames are doing off the ice?


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819650 is a reply to message #819648 ]
Fri, 17 March 2023 12:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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benv wrote on Fri, 17 March 2023 10:24

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 14:06

benv wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 13:53



It has to be more than just Calgary's soft schedule. Despite being a longshot to make the playoffs, they have them at 5% to win the cup which is higher than all teams ahead of them in the Pacific except Edmonton (Vegas 2.4%, Seattle 4.6%, LA 3.3%). Obviously the site seems to think Calgary is really good, and their low point total is due to bad luck.


You are correct. MP has Calgary as their #5 team in the power ranking (Oilers are #2). The categories that go into the power ranking are fed into the game prediction model which are used to create playoff odds. Interesting stuff.


I was curious to see if recent losses to Anaheim and Arizona has lowered Calgary's rankings in the eyes of MoneyPuck:

Nope; they've actually moved up. MoneyPuck now considers them the 2nd best team in the league behind only Carolina (Oilers down to 5th).

I don't have time to go into the weeds in their analytics but they obviously love whatever the Flames are doing on the ice, but just aren't getting results with.

https://www.moneypuck.com/power.htm



That's super-bizarre. They're almost a shoo-in to miss the playoffs now. It's more likely they finish 10th than 8th. It feels like there has to be an input error there or something. Or is Sutter trying to game analytics like Eakins did?

Do the guys that run this respond on twitter?



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819651 is a reply to message #819648 ]
Fri, 17 March 2023 12:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Red Rage  is currently offline Red Rage
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LOL @ Moneypuck.

They also have Vegas, the Avalanche and the Rangers at 16, 17 and 19 respectively. icon_rolleyes



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819655 is a reply to message #819651 ]
Fri, 17 March 2023 12:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6933
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Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

ere's their playoff odds:

https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Trying to make sense of this. Current picture is:

WC1 Seattle 83 pts (14 GR)
WC2 Winnipeg 79 pts (13 GR)
SOL1 Calgary 76 pts (13 GR)
SOL2 Nashville 75 pts (16 GR)

Moneypuck's playoff odds are:

Seattle - 94.7%
Winnipeg - 57.6%
Calgary - 39.5%
Nashville - 16.0%

I can't figure how Nashville could have less than half the chances at one point back with three games in hand.

Nashville has a huge number of Eastern games left (SIX!), and some tough teams to play, so maybe that's part of it. Virtually every game is against a team in the playoffs other than one against the Blues, and another against the Sabres. They do have two against Winnipeg and one against the Flames, so that would help them if they could win that. They lost their gimme game last night against Chicago too.

Flames have seven games against lame duck teams (Sharks x2, Ducks x2, Blackhawks, Canucks x2) plus the one against Nashville and another against Winnipeg, so I suppose they do have a pretty easy route comparatively.

Jets get Blues, Coyotes, Ducks, Sharks x2, Red Wings plus two against Preds and one against Flames. To me, that's almost as easy a route as the Flames and they already have the advantage of 3 more points. It'll surprise me if they aren't the one in the dance.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819220 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 20:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
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Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

OOTSB looking pretty bleak.. only one good result
Florida beat Vegas 2-1..
Flames beat Minni 1-0 (in a shoot out!) what a boring game it musta been.
Avs pummeling SJ 6-0



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819222 is a reply to message #819220 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 21:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NZ Oiler Fan is currently online NZ Oiler Fan
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Registered: October 2006
Location: Kensington, PEI

1 Cup

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 23:59

OOTSB looking pretty bleak.. only one good result
Florida beat Vegas 2-1..
Flames beat Minni 1-0 (in a shoot out!) what a boring game it musta been.
Avs pummeling SJ 6-0



I'm perfectly happy if COL keeps winning because screw Calgary. Nice to see Vegas FINALLY take a L



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819223 is a reply to message #819220 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 21:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6933
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6 Cups

Blue Jackets got up to a 4-0 lead in the first 22 minutes tonight and then lost to the Penguins 5-4 in OT. That’s a bad team there.


"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819224 is a reply to message #819220 ]
Tue, 07 March 2023 22:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
Messages: 10052
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6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 20:59

OOTSB looking pretty bleak.. only one good result
Florida beat Vegas 2-1..
Flames beat Minni 1-0 (in a shoot out!) what a boring game it musta been.
Avs pummeling SJ 6-0


Sharks put their tank pants on tonight. GM sneak some booze into the Gatorade?



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819228 is a reply to message #819224 ]
Wed, 08 March 2023 14:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
Messages: 4054
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Location: Burnaby, BC

4 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 21:38

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 07 March 2023 20:59

OOTSB looking pretty bleak.. only one good result
Florida beat Vegas 2-1..
Flames beat Minni 1-0 (in a shoot out!) what a boring game it musta been.
Avs pummeling SJ 6-0


Sharks put their tank pants on tonight. GM sneak some booze into the Gatorade?


Probably just put out a bowl of pre-game gummies..



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819229 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Wed, 08 March 2023 15:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
Messages: 2918
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2 Cups

Shout out to Tony D'Angelo for spearing Cory Perry in the sack. Somebody should have done it 15 years ago.


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819236 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Thu, 09 March 2023 08:37 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
kungpaobenji27  is currently offline kungpaobenji27
Messages: 308
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Location: Irving, Texas

No Cups

And just like that, Flames are 4 pts behind Jets for the last playoff spot....

Makes me wonder if Winnipeg will blow it up this offseason....



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #819327 is a reply to message #812389 ]
Thu, 09 March 2023 21:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
Messages: 10052
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Thanks for nothing Tampa, Colorado, and probably Ottawa too. Sigh...


"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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