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 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823773]
Fri, 19 May 2023 10:57 Go to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 7741
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Alright, I think it's time to discuss the broader issues with the Oilers now that we've had time to digest the season coming to an end.

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 09:52

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 00:32

Adam wrote on Thu, 18 May 2023 22:20

Rutuu wrote on Thu, 18 May 2023 17:12


Next year and the one after is our window. We need need a tender, and a top pairing and we need to mortgage 1st's, 2nd's, prospects and use LTIR and the cap rules to pay other teams to eat money to do it.




I disagree. Next year is our window. If we don't make the Finals at worst, I think Draisaitl doesn't sign an extension and it's the beginning of the end. If the Oilers hold him, then we face losing him for nothing as a UFA. If we trade him, we can't hope to get fair value. If he leaves? Then McDavid is done here too.

So pray for the win next year, because if it doesn't the next Dark Age is upon us.

I consider trading Drai this summer.

I don’t think the team, as it’s presently constructed, can win the cup. The mix of personalities, skill set, contracts, offense, and defense just isn’t right. I’m not saying I trust Holland, Holland, or Staios to make a Draisaitl trade because I don’t. I just don’t think there’s a path to glory with this team, as it’s presently constructed, next year. Swapping out Yamo or Ceci simply doesn’t move the needle enough. They’d still be exactly who they are. This is where I’d be #bold. That’s not pot stirring. The team simply isn’t a real contender.



Took me most of the week to get to reading stuff about that last game, but this trading Draisaitl stuff is over the top. You always consider alternative avenues, but what leads anyone to believe that the end of times is coming?

I am not buying it. I am disappointed in our end result. This team had a clear path to the Cup, but we tripped over our own feet. This team is a juggernaut with some glaring holes, but addressable holes. Bookmark this post. We are not losing 97 or 29 anytime soon, and we have a 6-8 year run of being considered a Cup contender.

I am a ray of effin' sunshine, and everyone needs to bask in my UV.


I don't think the end is coming. Even poorly managed the Oilers can exist as a fringe contender for the foreseeable future, which for me is only 2 or 3 years, and maybe even cash one in with some luck. Who knows. But I disagree that this team is juggernaut, the glaring holes are addressable, and that they're 2ish (4ish?) years into a decade long run of being coin flips away from the cup.

I think they were fortunate to come back from 3-2 against the Kings last year and wildly lucky not to be down 3-1 this year. They were easily handled by the Avs last year and shoved aside by a Knights team that capitalized on those glaring Oilers weaknesses and mitigated the Oilers strengths when they had to. I know it was a close series but the Knights were able to impose their will on the Oilers. The Flames series was... well that was just a masterpiece of offensive hockey creating a total collapse. The whole series should be immortalized in a tapestry and hung in town square. Before that we saw the juggernaut offense get completely goalied by the waning Jets and whatever that Chicago series was. If that is the path to future greatness... I have some concerns about the construction of this hill. I accept that this perspective of history is highly biased by my own perceptions and beliefs. Anyone is free to disagree with parts of this (not the Calgary part) and would come to different conclusions when projecting future outcomes.

So why do I consider trading Drai? I don't see the Oilers as being structured for success because the dynamism of McDavid and Draisaitl inherently lead to a top heavy approach better suited for gaudy regular season numbers rather than winning tight and frustrating playoff hockey. For the last 4 season I've watched the Oilers be unable to do the one thing they need to do to win: outscore problems. For me this becomes a management problem. If an organization can not achieve it's goals management has to decide to change the goals or change the inputs. Since no one will be happy with the President's Cup being THE goal (which I think is achievable) I think it's time to consider changing the inputs.

Keep in mind this is all very different than saying we should trade Drai.

Now, I don't think the Oilers have the management talent to successfully trade Drai nor do I think they have the stones to do it. I also agree that Draisaitl is also on a value contract right now, but that could be seen as making an early trade even more useful. As a fan, I do not want this management team trading Draisaitl. As a guy that loved being creative with case studies in business school... I see an opportunity.

To go back to rutuu and Adam's discussion of Cup windows. IF I believe the Oilers we real and true cup contenders I'd take a run at two cups and risk losing him for nothing to free agency. But if they're not real and true cup contenders right now, good management will acknowledge it and a hard decision will have to be made. This is why I think, under present circumstance, the cup window is either exactly two years OR it doesn't exist.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823782 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Similar to what I said to Adam. What is the point of your discussion if before anyone gives their opinion, you already have it set in your mind that the Oilers management is bad at their job and as you put it "don't think the Oilers management have the talent..". So anything someone will suggest, its most likely going to turn into a rant about why it won't happen because Oilers management is bad at their job.


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823785 is a reply to message #823782 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33

Similar to what I said to Adam. What is the point of your discussion if before anyone gives their opinion, you already have it set in your mind that the Oilers management is bad at their job and as you put it "don't think the Oilers management have the talent..". So anything someone will suggest, its most likely going to turn into a rant about why it won't happen because Oilers management is bad at their job.

What's the point? I like to talk about hockey.



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823789 is a reply to message #823785 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 13:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33

Similar to what I said to Adam. What is the point of your discussion if before anyone gives their opinion, you already have it set in your mind that the Oilers management is bad at their job and as you put it "don't think the Oilers management have the talent..". So anything someone will suggest, its most likely going to turn into a rant about why it won't happen because Oilers management is bad at their job.

What's the point? I like to talk about hockey.

Just my opinion but I find that hard to believe. In my opinion when a person starts things off letting everyone know they think the management is terrible, I have a hard time believing the discussion will be anything about what could be done to improve the team. I am sure people will mention something but it will mostly be sidetracked with another recap of why Oilers management sucks and here's a list of all the miss deeds from years past that we have all discussed 100's of times before.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823791 is a reply to message #823789 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 13:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:26

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33

Similar to what I said to Adam. What is the point of your discussion if before anyone gives their opinion, you already have it set in your mind that the Oilers management is bad at their job and as you put it "don't think the Oilers management have the talent..". So anything someone will suggest, its most likely going to turn into a rant about why it won't happen because Oilers management is bad at their job.

What's the point? I like to talk about hockey.

Just my opinion but I find that hard to believe. In my opinion when a person starts things off letting everyone know they think the management is terrible, I have a hard time believing the discussion will be anything about what could be done to improve the team. I am sure people will mention something but it will mostly be sidetracked with another recap of why Oilers management sucks and here's a list of all the miss deeds from years past that we have all discussed 100's of times before.

Then don't respond. The rest of us will carry on our merry way. If you'd like to contribute, I'm always happy to read what you have to write for us, but you're going to have to accept some people disagreeing with you. Maybe even things that are fundament hockey beliefs for you.




Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823794 is a reply to message #823791 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 14:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:36

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:26

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33

Similar to what I said to Adam. What is the point of your discussion if before anyone gives their opinion, you already have it set in your mind that the Oilers management is bad at their job and as you put it "don't think the Oilers management have the talent..". So anything someone will suggest, its most likely going to turn into a rant about why it won't happen because Oilers management is bad at their job.

What's the point? I like to talk about hockey.

Just my opinion but I find that hard to believe. In my opinion when a person starts things off letting everyone know they think the management is terrible, I have a hard time believing the discussion will be anything about what could be done to improve the team. I am sure people will mention something but it will mostly be sidetracked with another recap of why Oilers management sucks and here's a list of all the miss deeds from years past that we have all discussed 100's of times before.

Then don't respond. The rest of us will carry on our merry way. If you'd like to contribute, I'm always happy to read what you have to write for us, but you're going to have to accept some people disagreeing with you. Maybe even things that are fundament hockey beliefs for you.



I got no issue with someone disagreeing with me. I am not so arrogant like some that think it's my way or nothing. I'm just looking to have a discussion and throw hockey related stuff around and have it not end up with the same ending "good idea but it won't happen because the Oilers management is stupid and here is a list of past deeds on why they are stupid." Many of which the people involved don't even work for the team anymore but it doesn't matter, they happened so that means it will happen again.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823838 is a reply to message #823794 ]
Sun, 21 May 2023 13:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24  is currently offline K.McC#24
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 14:02

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:36

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:26

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33

Similar to what I said to Adam. What is the point of your discussion if before anyone gives their opinion, you already have it set in your mind that the Oilers management is bad at their job and as you put it "don't think the Oilers management have the talent..". So anything someone will suggest, its most likely going to turn into a rant about why it won't happen because Oilers management is bad at their job.

What's the point? I like to talk about hockey.

Just my opinion but I find that hard to believe. In my opinion when a person starts things off letting everyone know they think the management is terrible, I have a hard time believing the discussion will be anything about what could be done to improve the team. I am sure people will mention something but it will mostly be sidetracked with another recap of why Oilers management sucks and here's a list of all the miss deeds from years past that we have all discussed 100's of times before.

Then don't respond. The rest of us will carry on our merry way. If you'd like to contribute, I'm always happy to read what you have to write for us, but you're going to have to accept some people disagreeing with you. Maybe even things that are fundament hockey beliefs for you.



I got no issue with someone disagreeing with me. I am not so arrogant like some that think it's my way or nothing. I'm just looking to have a discussion and throw hockey related stuff around and have it not end up with the same ending "good idea but it won't happen because the Oilers management is stupid and here is a list of past deeds on why they are stupid." Many of which the people involved don't even work for the team anymore but it doesn't matter, they happened so that means it will happen again.

I was interested to hear what your solution was, in another thread, for your contention that RNH was the primary reason the Oilers lost to Vegas. Crickets.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823783 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 12:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ragnarok73  is currently offline Ragnarok73
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2 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 10:57

Alright, I think it's time to discuss the broader issues with the Oilers now that we've had time to digest the season coming to an end.

inverno76 wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 09:52

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 00:32

Adam wrote on Thu, 18 May 2023 22:20

Rutuu wrote on Thu, 18 May 2023 17:12


Next year and the one after is our window. We need need a tender, and a top pairing and we need to mortgage 1st's, 2nd's, prospects and use LTIR and the cap rules to pay other teams to eat money to do it.




I disagree. Next year is our window. If we don't make the Finals at worst, I think Draisaitl doesn't sign an extension and it's the beginning of the end. If the Oilers hold him, then we face losing him for nothing as a UFA. If we trade him, we can't hope to get fair value. If he leaves? Then McDavid is done here too.

So pray for the win next year, because if it doesn't the next Dark Age is upon us.

I consider trading Drai this summer.

I don’t think the team, as it’s presently constructed, can win the cup. The mix of personalities, skill set, contracts, offense, and defense just isn’t right. I’m not saying I trust Holland, Holland, or Staios to make a Draisaitl trade because I don’t. I just don’t think there’s a path to glory with this team, as it’s presently constructed, next year. Swapping out Yamo or Ceci simply doesn’t move the needle enough. They’d still be exactly who they are. This is where I’d be #bold. That’s not pot stirring. The team simply isn’t a real contender.



Took me most of the week to get to reading stuff about that last game, but this trading Draisaitl stuff is over the top. You always consider alternative avenues, but what leads anyone to believe that the end of times is coming?

I am not buying it. I am disappointed in our end result. This team had a clear path to the Cup, but we tripped over our own feet. This team is a juggernaut with some glaring holes, but addressable holes. Bookmark this post. We are not losing 97 or 29 anytime soon, and we have a 6-8 year run of being considered a Cup contender.

I am a ray of effin' sunshine, and everyone needs to bask in my UV.


I don't think the end is coming. Even poorly managed the Oilers can exist as a fringe contender for the foreseeable future, which for me is only 2 or 3 years, and maybe even cash one in with some luck. Who knows. But I disagree that this team is juggernaut, the glaring holes are addressable, and that they're 2ish (4ish?) years into a decade long run of being coin flips away from the cup.

I think they were fortunate to come back from 3-2 against the Kings last year and wildly lucky not to be down 3-1 this year. They were easily handled by the Avs last year and shoved aside by a Knights team that capitalized on those glaring Oilers weaknesses and mitigated the Oilers strengths when they had to. I know it was a close series but the Knights were able to impose their will on the Oilers. The Flames series was... well that was just a masterpiece of offensive hockey creating a total collapse. The whole series should be immortalized in a tapestry and hung in town square. Before that we saw the juggernaut offense get completely goalied by the waning Jets and whatever that Chicago series was. If that is the path to future greatness... I have some concerns about the construction of this hill. I accept that this perspective of history is highly biased by my own perceptions and beliefs. Anyone is free to disagree with parts of this (not the Calgary part) and would come to different conclusions when projecting future outcomes.

So why do I consider trading Drai? I don't see the Oilers as being structured for success because the dynamism of McDavid and Draisaitl inherently lead to a top heavy approach better suited for gaudy regular season numbers rather than winning tight and frustrating playoff hockey. For the last 4 season I've watched the Oilers be unable to do the one thing they need to do to win: outscore problems. For me this becomes a management problem. If an organization can not achieve it's goals management has to decide to change the goals or change the inputs. Since no one will be happy with the President's Cup being THE goal (which I think is achievable) I think it's time to consider changing the inputs.

Keep in mind this is all very different than saying we should trade Drai.

Now, I don't think the Oilers have the management talent to successfully trade Drai nor do I think they have the stones to do it. I also agree that Draisaitl is also on a value contract right now, but that could be seen as making an early trade even more useful. As a fan, I do not want this management team trading Draisaitl. As a guy that loved being creative with case studies in business school... I see an opportunity.

To go back to rutuu and Adam's discussion of Cup windows. IF I believe the Oilers we real and true cup contenders I'd take a run at two cups and risk losing him for nothing to free agency. But if they're not real and true cup contenders right now, good management will acknowledge it and a hard decision will have to be made. This is why I think, under present circumstance, the cup window is either exactly two years OR it doesn't exist.

I don't think the Oil are that far off being able to seriously make a run at the Cup. In fact, they were about 2 solid D-men short of that goal this year. Holland was able to pick up Ekholm, so there is some reason to believe that he could make similar moves to further shore up the Oilers' blueline group. As I said before, they don't need a Norris-candidate defenceman, just solid guys who don't make major mistakes in their own end of the ice. If Holland can somehow get his hands on one (maybe Karlsson), that would be a bonus, but it wouldn't be an absolute necessity.



"There's no greater springboard to development than failure." - Craig MacTavish, April 13/15.

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"Sabres think the suck is their ally? They merely adopted the suck. The Oilers were born in it...molded by it."

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823788 is a reply to message #823783 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 13:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:52


I don't think the Oil are that far off being able to seriously make a run at the Cup. In fact, they were about 2 solid D-men short of that goal this year. Holland was able to pick up Ekholm, so there is some reason to believe that he could make similar moves to further shore up the Oilers' blueline group. As I said before, they don't need a Norris-candidate defenceman, just solid guys who don't make major mistakes in their own end of the ice. If Holland can somehow get his hands on one (maybe Karlsson), that would be a bonus, but it wouldn't be an absolute necessity.


I entirely agree. They're not that far off. The fact is they were final 4 last year and final 8 this year. Those are objectively good results. But we've watched the Oilers spin their wheels with the same problems for the entire McDavid era. Offense disappears when the tough season starts, depth isn't deep enough, defense is porous like Oscar's pant after flying through a hail storm, and goaltending remains a question.

But something is off. The defense as it is (Nurse, Ekholm, Ceci, Kulak, offensive specialist, random 6th guy) should be a good enough NHL defense. By time and time again, we've seen whatever is put out there isn't good enough.



Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823811 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 15:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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4 Cups

Goaltending

Not sure what Oil have for goalie development/coaching other than D. Schwartz.. but I'd have an entire department for it.. goalie evaluation, development, scouting, I'd have that crew going to other leagues just evaluating goalies.

Evaluation would include state of the art 3D biomechanical, real time physical analytics, not merely statistical "analytics".
Analyze the top goalies in other organizations to see what they do, and how they do it, determine and if it can be applied to your own players style.. these parameters can also be used to evaluate future draft picks or trades.

And it would be good to have more than one perspective coaching/evaluating goalies, I'd have more than one coach.

Hockey Ops doesn't have a salary cap, I'd use it.

[Updated on: Fri, 19 May 2023 16:56]


McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823814 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Fri, 19 May 2023 16:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Oops - you rightly moved this to a post-mortem thread and I just kept responding over there.

My bad! All my points still stand. I think we have a chance so I don't want to trade Draisaitl yet.

I think our management sucks, and that there's a mountain of evidence for that, so I don't trust them with a quick re-tooling around a Draisaitl trade.

And I think anyone who doesn't understand that management is a huge part of the problem here, likely the biggest problem, has their head firmly in the sand.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/l1J9znYNISr0aEmze/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47ca5sichr5ihjl0wqhm20ytf9orjgmpypoxf3tgud&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823824 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Sat, 20 May 2023 01:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Skating Analytics/Development Group

In the same vain as Goaltending, I'd also add a group to analyze and evaluate individual skater technique and efficiency/proficiency. Employ advanced hi-tech skating analytical methods, model the player's stride, identify mechanical inefficiencies in skater technique, determine the cause(s) and what the player can do to rectify it. The solutions could be both improved technique and increased strength. This analysis would apply to draft picks as well as current roster players.

From what I understand, all the Oilers have now is D. Pelletier doing skating drills with players.
There is a lot of room to advance this, as a comparison try to imagine the high level of analytics and evaluation used by NCAA football teams with their players, never mind NFL. Oilers could start by checking to see what analytical methods/equipment some of these programs use, and apply it to skating.. maybe even hire them to help create something.. people in their kinesiology departments are likely involved at some level.. both sports likely have some transferable similarities, could be a good head start for an Oiler program, rather than trying to start from scratch.

Again, there is no salary cap on hockey operations, IMH Oilers should maximize its potential benefits.

I've thought about this before.. I remember the one summer Ethan Bear came back and his skating (speed/agility) had improved remarkably, he said he had spent the summer working with D. Pelletier, I wondered then why every Oiler prospect isn't required to do this, it sounded like Bear had to seek out the additional training on his own.. the other case was when Leon came back after a summer of training and his skating speed had improved considerably.. the focused training obviously works, it proves a drafted player's skating is not destined to stay at draft level, it would be great if every players skating abilities were able to be maximized.

This idea was refreshed again this playoffs when I heard an announcer saying during a game that one of the teams had a full time skating development group, and it was responsible for one of the players improving his speed (forget who).. So someone has already thought of it.. Oil need to get ahead of the curve.

IMO a skating development group would pay immense dividends, especially for young prospects. A lot of franchise capital is spent on draft picks, some have the skill and desire, they just need to be a couple of rungs higher in speed and agility.
The cost of the program would be paid back many times if you can manage to get a lower draft pick develop into an NHL level player .. if a pick has high level skill but average speed (lower ranked pick), and you have a skating development system that gets results, you can help maintain a steady supply of young NHL talent coming up on lower ELC's and help manage the cap.

I think the key is to get the players when they are still young and are still able to modify and improve skating mechanics.. gets harder to change as the player gets older when technique becomes burned into the nervous system.

.. just a couple thoughts.


I envision something similar to this.. :)

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSOhVfutcSOZ0SO2Ou6BpWeKWcl8zM5o7K7-CYtbeLGTdXjRhDXITL9K_-OI9IqqmGE0Jg&usqp=CAU

[Updated on: Sat, 20 May 2023 02:06]


McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823825 is a reply to message #823824 ]
Sat, 20 May 2023 13:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
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No Cups

Trade Drai? No *

* Unless in his extension year he isn’t willing to resign then yes you trade

* Unless you get the equivalent of a Lindros trade that stacks the team overnight, but not even sure if possible in cap era.



Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823840 is a reply to message #823825 ]
Sun, 21 May 2023 16:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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nullterm wrote on Sat, 20 May 2023 13:28

Trade Drai? No *

* Unless in his extension year he isn’t willing to resign then yes you trade

My whole motivation for considering a trade is to avoid this scenario. The worst case, imo, is the Oilers being forced (or thinking they're forced) into a time bound trade of a major asset. It has got panicked decision making written all over it. I'd rather they take two full shots at the cup with Draisaitl than make a trade out of fear next summer.

Quote:


* Unless you get the equivalent of a Lindros trade that stacks the team overnight, but not even sure if possible in cap era.

I didn't think this was possible either until I saw the ridiculous trade for the corpse of Russell Wilson.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823836 is a reply to message #823824 ]
Sun, 21 May 2023 11:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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6 Cups

100%.

I remember when Mark Cuban took over the Mavs he wanted to know what amenities the good clubs had for their players and how much it would cost to get Dallas to that level. Just getting things like nicer chairs in the dressing room and PlayStations on the plane ended up costing ~200k and made the franchise feel less cheap (this is from memory, details are fuzzy).

In the current year there’s no reason why the Oilers shouldn’t be sending out nutritionists, skills and condition advisors, and sports therapists out to their players. Hire cooks to feed them (and inspect their pantries). Hire a concierge in kelowna and Muskoka to book ice, tee times, and make sure their phone bills are paid. Just make it easy for the payers to stay out of trouble and in preparation for October.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823850 is a reply to message #823836 ]
Sun, 21 May 2023 21:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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4 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Sun, 21 May 2023 10:10

100%.

I remember when Mark Cuban took over the Mavs he wanted to know what amenities the good clubs had for their players and how much it would cost to get Dallas to that level. Just getting things like nicer chairs in the dressing room and PlayStations on the plane ended up costing ~200k and made the franchise feel less cheap (this is from memory, details are fuzzy).

In the current year there’s no reason why the Oilers shouldn’t be sending out nutritionists, skills and condition advisors, and sports therapists out to their players. Hire cooks to feed them (and inspect their pantries). Hire a concierge in kelowna and Muskoka to book ice, tee times, and make sure their phone bills are paid. Just make it easy for the payers to stay out of trouble and in preparation for October.


From what I've read it seems that the Oilers have a lot of nutrition education and consultation covered, What I was thinking was specifically from a mechanics (analytics, evaluation) point of view. There is no reason I player's skating and agility shouldn't be able to improve. Some of it could be by more strength (Crosby does 500# squats for example), but most of it would be via improved stride mechanics.

Pittsburgh actually has a Department of Sports Science and Development (so I'm on the right track), the Director of that department trains McKinnon, Crosby, and Marchand in teh offseason, and has been training McKinnon before juniors. Here's an interesting article.. its McKinnon focused, but you can glean from it that the concept of the analytics of skating mechanics is valuable, and effective.
Article Link: https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nathan-mackinnon-colorad o-avalanche-profile/

Here's some excerpts..

Quote:

.. It’s spotless, though it’s now seeing its first off-season of sweat. And it’s outfitted with state-of-the-art equipment, built to specs detailed by the guest MacKinnon has just buzzed in: Andy O’Brien, trainer to NHL stars.

A native of Charlottetown, P.E.I., O’Brien serves as the director of sport science and performance for the Penguins during the regular season and spends his summers working with clients who rank in the NHL’s elite, including MacKinnon and his next-door neighbour on Grand Lake, Sidney Crosby. O’Brien makes regular trips out east in the off-season and MacKinnon has made trips west to work out at O’Brien’s gym in Etobicoke. When they can’t schedule face-to-face time, MacKinnon works out on his own from programs written by O’Brien. He also works with Alex Pianosi, O’Brien’s long-time business partner. Plus, MacKinnon can always get in a skate, some track work and a hill run with his neighbour.

“Mike Sullivan told me after we played against the Avs that Nathan was the best player we faced all season.”
O’Brien is in MacKinnon’s ear as they get work through a warmup and some stretching, but it’s not what you might expect. This isn’t the dynamic of a drill sergeant to a recruit. This isn’t the scene at the NHL combine, where you have staff shouting in the ear of a prospect trying to push through pain on a stationary bike. No, it’s a discussion of restaurants in town, plans for the rest of the summer, changes in downtown Halifax — strictly water-cooler stuff. Only occasionally does something drop that reminds you this isn’t the Y or a Goodlife.

“I was talking to Sid the other day,” O’Brien says. “I said, ‘Look at the three guys from here that I work with’ — y’know, you, Sid and Marshy…” The latter being Brad Marchand, of the Boston Bruins. “…you’re all animals in the gym.”

Yeah, all animals and all All-Stars.


This is where he talks about how important it is for a young player to improve skating technique FIRST before Strength.. as he says.. you can always build strength later, but your ability to improve technique diminishes quickly as the player gets older (which supports my previous hypothesis)..

Quote:

.. Yet another parallel to Crosby: In the summer after his first year at Shattuck, MacKinnon started working with O’Brien. He’d had a small taste of life under the trainer back when he was peewee-aged. “I did one workout with him, mostly lunges and that sort of thing. Andy asked what I did for workouts and my dad told him I used to run telephone poles on the way home from school with my backpack on. That was my sprint work. That was all I did.”

Though he never came off as even a bit full of himself, MacKinnon was pretty puffed up when he first went to O’Brien that summer. “I had this video of me at Shattuck and thought Andy would watch me skate and be impressed,” he says. “When I was 14 or 15, I thought I was a sick skater. Andy looked and said, ‘Look how bent over you are when you’re skating.’ Mechanically I had a lot to work on. I got humbled quick.”

The regimen that followed was not what the teenager expected. O’Brien reprised the role of Mr. Miyagi in The Karate Kid, you know, the learning-to-walk-before-you-run proposition. That’s exactly what he had MacKinnon do: walk. All summer long. For hours. On a treadmill. Yeah, he had skipped too far ahead when he was running from telephone pole to telephone pole.

It was as boring as it sounds, but a little more intense than you might imagine. It wasn’t a stroll, but rather a steep incline. “We focused on flexing his ankle and positive shin angle,” O’Brien says. “My experience is that it’s hard to train technique later. If you’re three, four, five years in, it’s hard to retrain and correct technique. You can wait for the power. Other than Sid, Nate was the only teenager I worked with where I had the benefit of taking that approach and being able to be patient with the process. If you’re in the NHL, you don’t have the luxury of time.”

“I was so raw that’s really where we had to start, the basics,” MacKinnon says. “I tried to understand what it was that we were trying to do but at a certain level it came down to trust and I just had to trust Andy.”

MacKinnon stuck with the summer sessions — not surprising, given that he was committed enough to go to Shattuck for two years. And not surprising, given O’Brien’s track record, which is basically a drop-out rate of zero. “It takes a certain type of person to sign on,” O’Brien says. “Any of my clients have to be self-motivated. They come to me looking for a way to get better. Looking for any way, whatever it’s going to take.” Effectively, they need a bit of Crosby about them.

FUNDAMENTALIST
The first time they worked together, O'Brien had MacKinnon relearn how to walk. “I was so raw that’s really where we had to start, the basics,” MacKinnon says.
O’Brien says that MacKinnon didn’t put on muscle like Crosby had and that continues to this day — I was a little skeptical when I first heard that. I saw Crosby for the first time back in August ’03, when he was the same age MacKinnon was at the Mooseheads’ camp. MacKinnon looked much more filled-out, but put it down to either the limitations of the eye test or a trick of memory, or both.

MacKinnon’s first game with the Mooseheads was an exhibition against Cape Breton at the Halifax Forum. From his first shift, he had the opposing defencemen struggling to get their legs under them; they couldn’t even begin to deal with his speed. On that shift, he set up Martin Frk for a goal and though he was limited to that assist on the score sheet, he was clearly the most impressive prospect on the ice. MacKinnon, though, was hardly impressed with himself. Today, he admits that he had doubts about making the jump from Shattuck the Q. “I [wondered] what was I getting myself into,” he says. “I didn’t think it would be easy and it wasn’t. Everyone was much bigger and stronger. Everyone was trying to get as big as possible, on the bench [press], whatever. I was 15. I spent the summer walking on a treadmill. I didn’t lift a weight all summer. I’m gonna get f—in’ crushed.”


That's what the Oilers require, a top end, hi-tech, leading edge, Department of Sports Science.. they can have sub-departments.. (by order of importance) Skating Technique and Performance, Goaltending Performance (with a spiritual component to channel the flow of Goalie Voo-Doo!).. Shot Mechanics.. Strength and Conditioning.. and Nutrition and Diet.

As an example of how high a level of skating technique and analysis can take, here is a study for speed skating stride analysis, the same could be done for hockey.. except it'd be more complex, you'd also have to include other parameters such as agility and edge work into the analysis.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002192901 7304608
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0021929017304608-gr1.jpg
https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0021929017304608-gr2.jpg

[Updated on: Sun, 21 May 2023 21:48]


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Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823842 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Sun, 21 May 2023 17:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76  is currently offline inverno76
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2 Cups

Like Pittsburgh was for years with Crosby and Malkin, the window stays open as long as 97 and 29 are here. Sure we don’t have Fluery and Letang, but we saw the Pens win a Cup with suspect D and a hot goalie.

That’s the Oilers right now, except the goalie. I still believe in Skinner, but that’s the only thing I believe is holding us back. We are good enough to beat any team, on any given night with average goaltending. We didn’t get it this spring. So disappointing.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823848 is a reply to message #823842 ]
Sun, 21 May 2023 21:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Sun, 21 May 2023 17:11

Like Pittsburgh was for years with Crosby and Malkin, the window stays open as long as 97 and 29 are here. Sure we don’t have Fluery and Letang, but we saw the Pens win a Cup with suspect D and a hot goalie.

That’s the Oilers right now, except the goalie. I still believe in Skinner, but that’s the only thing I believe is holding us back. We are good enough to beat any team, on any given night with average goaltending. We didn’t get it this spring. So disappointing.


But Pittsburgh had won a Cup, plus been to another Finals before Crosby & Malkin were at risk of facing UFA. They both extended a year before they first had the opportunity to go UFA. Crosby chose a route similar to Matthews, where in his second deal he didn't give many UFA years, and then signed long-term the year before he first could be a UFA. He doesn't face it again until 2025. Malkin has never done a very long-term deal and is actually on his fourth contract. He signed a year early the first time around and even was briefly available as a UFA last year.

The biggest difference is the team around them in those early years was so consistently better. Malkin had never missed the playoffs before this year, and Crosby was a rookie the last time they missed. They lost out early more times than they'd be happy with, and both faced some adversity (lots of injury issues for both) but even when they missed large stretches, the team was still good enough to make the post-season and compete.

I'm not sure it's the same with the Oilers. They haven't been good enough to compete, and have had to have super-human performances by 97 and 29 in order to advance in the playoffs the last couple of years. The management hasn't had a real legit goalie behind them since 2017. I agree - as long as those players are here the window is open and I wish that management had come to that conclusion 3-4 years earlier. We have an awful lot riding on whether we go deep in the post-season next year.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823853 is a reply to message #823848 ]
Mon, 22 May 2023 16:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rowan Oil Fielding  is currently offline Rowan Oil Fielding
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No Cups

I would love it if Patrick Kane came to Edmonton! He still has some juice left and him paired with McDavid can help The Oilers over their playoff hump.
https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-2023-free-agent-targets- patrick-kane/



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823860 is a reply to message #823773 ]
Mon, 22 May 2023 22:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

I can't get on board with a Drai trade. I'm still thinking ride or die with McDrai (and Nurse, because bros and all that).

This summer I'd be 100% fixated on the goaltending situation. There was talk about us finally getting rid of our goalie coach that survived 4 GM's and 6 HC's that saw almost every goalie under him have a slow regression. What's the holdup? This team should be completely obsessed about getting goaltending fixed next year. We should be committing with the max possible funding and support to helping Skinner and Campbell having life altering summers if we're sticking with them both. We let a total crap show almost destroy our regular season, then we let it help destroy our playoffs too. Woodcroft needs to watch some playoffs and see how goalies that are trash for long periods can being miracle makers. The hockey gods were slapping him with hints all playoffs and he wouldn't give a change a try. Lots and lots of lessons and work to be done for our goaltending situation.

#2 to me is getting an ideal partner for Nurse. Codi Ceci trying to be a crappy version of Nurse, chasing guys all over the zone and just forgetting to ever come back isn't gonna cut it. He had a core injury, but he looked more like he had a brain injury. I don't think I'd risk him another season. Had a bad feeling about that pair all year and boy did it screw us bad. Ceci is the far weaker contributor and the guy you can actually dump to try to fix it. Do it.

Hyman and Kane are probably key to us having a 2 line attack. Both were injured. I think you need an upgrade on Yams if you want to have some more certainty that we don't end up a 1 line team again when it matters most. Not much money to do it, this is where you would love to have a solid analytics team, able to find someone capable of driving some possession at a good price. Just not feeling too hopeful about Yams ever getting his confidence back before he took a load of beatings and concussions.

We probably rushed Kane back. Man it would have been nice to have a little balls in our management group to just sit Kane out until the playoffs and pick up another winger or top 4 D with his cap hit. I guess this isn't something you fix, having management with some outside the box thinking, but next year if the chance to pull a Vegas/Tampa/whoever else that does it comes up, do it, we need all the help we can get and this is a make or break year with Drai.

Hope Woody also reflects on how stubborn he was with his wingers in the playoffs. We had some guys rolling in the bottom 6 with almost every winger in the top 6 completely useless. He never moved someone up or tried anything. What he finally tried for a 2 line attack in our elimination game was a complete disaster with Nuge-Drai-Yams, and who here couldn't have foreseen that? Stubbornness on goaltending too may have had him dodging some good luck he could have got. Woody has some old stubborn fart coaching mentality in there. Hope he able to evolve.


In the end, NHL level goaltending, and a key D pair not being 2 guys constantly wandering out of position. I think we make it to the 3rd round, even with just a 1 line team. Maybe I'm not accounting for some stupid that we saw. This team had just ridiculous runs of having no discipline. I couldn't tell you how to fix that. Is it a leadership issue? Is it just player IQ? Coaches not able to hammer home a strong message about discipline and babying players too much? Tough one. But, still think we had the horses to keep going if we didn't have total disasters by the goaltending and basically any time Ceci was on the ice.

[Updated on: Mon, 22 May 2023 22:19]


"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823862 is a reply to message #823860 ]
Mon, 22 May 2023 23:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Location: Edmonton, AB

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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 22 May 2023 22:11

I can't get on board with a Drai trade. I'm still thinking ride or die with McDrai (and Nurse, because bros and all that).

This summer I'd be 100% fixated on the goaltending situation. There was talk about us finally getting rid of our goalie coach that survived 4 GM's and 6 HC's that saw almost every goalie under him have a slow regression. What's the holdup? This team should be completely obsessed about getting goaltending fixed next year. We should be committing with the max possible funding and support to helping Skinner and Campbell having life altering summers if we're sticking with them both. We let a total crap show almost destroy our regular season, then we let it help destroy our playoffs too. Woodcroft needs to watch some playoffs and see how goalies that are trash for long periods can being miracle makers. The hockey gods were slapping him with hints all playoffs and he wouldn't give a change a try. Lots and lots of lessons and work to be done for our goaltending situation.

#2 to me is getting an ideal partner for Nurse. Codi Ceci trying to be a crappy version of Nurse, chasing guys all over the zone and just forgetting to ever come back isn't gonna cut it. He had a core injury, but he looked more like he had a brain injury. I don't think I'd risk him another season. Had a bad feeling about that pair all year and boy did it screw us bad. Ceci is the far weaker contributor and the guy you can actually dump to try to fix it. Do it.

Hyman and Kane are probably key to us having a 2 line attack. Both were injured. I think you need an upgrade on Yams if you want to have some more certainty that we don't end up a 1 line team again when it matters most. Not much money to do it, this is where you would love to have a solid analytics team, able to find someone capable of driving some possession at a good price. Just not feeling too hopeful about Yams ever getting his confidence back before he took a load of beatings and concussions.

We probably rushed Kane back. Man it would have been nice to have a little balls in our management group to just sit Kane out until the playoffs and pick up another winger or top 4 D with his cap hit. I guess this isn't something you fix, having management with some outside the box thinking, but next year if the chance to pull a Vegas/Tampa/whoever else that does it comes up, do it, we need all the help we can get and this is a make or break year with Drai.

Hope Woody also reflects on how stubborn he was with his wingers in the playoffs. We had some guys rolling in the bottom 6 with almost every winger in the top 6 completely useless. He never moved someone up or tried anything. What he finally tried for a 2 line attack in our elimination game was a complete disaster with Nuge-Drai-Yams, and who here couldn't have foreseen that? Stubbornness on goaltending too may have had him dodging some good luck he could have got. Woody has some old stubborn fart coaching mentality in there. Hope he able to evolve.


In the end, NHL level goaltending, and a key D pair not being 2 guys constantly wandering out of position. I think we make it to the 3rd round, even with just a 1 line team. Maybe I'm not accounting for some stupid that we saw. This team had just ridiculous runs of having no discipline. I couldn't tell you how to fix that. Is it a leadership issue? Is it just player IQ? Coaches not able to hammer home a strong message about discipline and babying players too much? Tough one. But, still think we had the horses to keep going if we didn't have total disasters by the goaltending and basically any time Ceci was on the ice.


Even if you thought we NEEDED Kane down the stretch, Yamamoto had that ugly collision a week or so ahead of the trade deadline and had to sit out a couple. We could have re-purposed his salary too.

If you were looking for the bold move this summer, you trade Stuart Skinner, fresh off his Calder win. Yes, his playoffs were ugly and that hurts his value a little, but people will still buy that there's something there due to his regular season and the trophy will help a lot with that.

I think there's reason to be concerned about Skinner but he still has trade value, which means you could potentially flush him and get back a bonafide starter (potentially in a separate deal). I look at a few other goalies who started hot. Here's the list of goalies who won the Calder since the Oilers entered the league:

- Andrew Raycroft - won the Calder, got traded for Tuuka Rask who was world's better. Boston knew the guy they had, and they had clearly better goalie scouting than Toronto. The trade was one-for-one and the Bruins won it hands down. Raycroft would only play one more season as a starter.
- Jim "The Net Detective" Carey - Nominated for Calder, won the Vezina in his sophomore season. Traded in a package that got the Capitals Adam Oates, Rich Tocchet and Billy Ranford. He'd even been seriously fading in that third season and the Bruins still gambled that he was one of the best up-and-coming goalies. He wasn't. After the season he was dealt, he only had 14 more NHL games left and meanwhile the Caps had an all-star forward and two solid veterans.
- Steve Mason is more of a cautionary tale. He didn't get traded early. Won the Calder and then slowly saw his numbers dwindle until he was backing up Bobrovsky in Columbus. He was traded for table scraps (Michael Leightion and a 3rd round pick) and while he managed a couple decent seasons in Philly, he was never the world beater his early promise showed.

If you can convince someone that he's for real and he's worth paying a significant price for this summer, I'd make that move in a heartbeat and then backfill with someone who can carry the mail.

I'd love to trade away Campbell instead, but that contract is a nightmare right now. I think he's unmovable without a Kassian-type sweetener package. Just hope he can play 30-35 games in a back-up role for the remainder of his deal (or until it's palatable to park him on some cap floor team in 2-3 years).





"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823863 is a reply to message #823862 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 06:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
Messages: 1373
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 02:40

I'd love to trade away Campbell instead, but that contract is a nightmare right now. I think he's unmovable without a Kassian-type sweetener package. Just hope he can play 30-35 games in a back-up role for the remainder of his deal (or until it's palatable to park him on some cap floor team in 2-3 years).


Campbell as part of an Erik Karlsson deal? icon_biggrin

One big shift I see with goalies is that the role of "backup" seems to be more important than it ever has been. Especially in these playoffs. Of the final 4 teams, only the Stars' Oettinger has started all of his team's games. The Leafs, Bruins, Devils, Devils all had more than one starter as well.

Of the 16 teams, only the Oilers, Stars, Avs, Kings, and Kraken had only 1 starter the duration of the playoffs.

I could be wrong, but it feels like teams have realized that goaltending can be voodoo and are more willing to sit their "starter". Unless you are blessed by bonafide studs like Price or Vasilevsky, a goaltending by committee approach could help to insulate against a guy going into a funk and maybe allowing someone to catch lightning in a bottle for a couple of months.

[Updated on: Tue, 23 May 2023 06:44]


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823864 is a reply to message #823863 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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3 Cups

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823867 is a reply to message #823864 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 09:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.


I wish I could trust this org to make a well educated call on goaltending. We don't even seem willing to mix things up in the coaching department after over a decade of seeing goalies have their games decay once they are on the NHL roster. We seemed to make a bad misread of Campbell last summer. We can't even tell which goalie is rolling or had zero confidence.

I'd be cool trading Skinner at a high IF I had any faith this org could identify a low cost replacement. I don't know what magic Vegas is pulling to have Adin Hill as their 3rd goalie that can come in and outplay everyone, but ... I want that lol.

Skinner still had potential I think. Some big improvements needed in his game. I think the talking heads were right that teams realized how little he uses his stick, so they started feeling like they could hold onto pucks and make moves easily in close on him (one D pair in particular constantly abandoning the area around our net obviously helped with this too). His confidence clearly needs some hardening and how his 2nd/3rd efforts on saves vanishes when he's not feeling it. Lateral movement was an issue too. Not a goalie expert, but if you think that stuff is hard to just all fix in the short term, maybe you do need to sell high on him. Clearly there are lots of goalies capable of stellar play out there to be had. Some teams seem to keep on finding them for cheap. Can we though? Not hopeful.



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- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823872 is a reply to message #823867 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:48

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.


I wish I could trust this org to make a well educated call on goaltending. We don't even seem willing to mix things up in the coaching department after over a decade of seeing goalies have their games decay once they are on the NHL roster. We seemed to make a bad misread of Campbell last summer. We can't even tell which goalie is rolling or had zero confidence.

I'd be cool trading Skinner at a high IF I had any faith this org could identify a low cost replacement. I don't know what magic Vegas is pulling to have Adin Hill as their 3rd goalie that can come in and outplay everyone, but ... I want that lol.

Skinner still had potential I think. Some big improvements needed in his game. I think the talking heads were right that teams realized how little he uses his stick, so they started feeling like they could hold onto pucks and make moves easily in close on him (one D pair in particular constantly abandoning the area around our net obviously helped with this too). His confidence clearly needs some hardening and how his 2nd/3rd efforts on saves vanishes when he's not feeling it. Lateral movement was an issue too. Not a goalie expert, but if you think that stuff is hard to just all fix in the short term, maybe you do need to sell high on him. Clearly there are lots of goalies capable of stellar play out there to be had. Some teams seem to keep on finding them for cheap. Can we though? Not hopeful.

The problem is, who are you getting that is better than Skinner, that you know is better and is cheaper? That's the problem.

My argument against the trade is any trade has to be a win for the Oilers based on where they are. To win a trade for the Oilers, they have to be getting back a play right now at a high level player that is productive right now and will be for multiple years and who's cheaper cap wise for what is going out. So any trade for Skinner won't involve a better goalie back unless that goalie costs way more money or you are getting a futeres goalie who is less proven than Skinner. So if you trade him for whatever package, you have to find a replacement even if that's just a back up and I don't think you can replace Skinners ability as a back up at the price point in the UFA market.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823875 is a reply to message #823872 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:48

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.


I wish I could trust this org to make a well educated call on goaltending. We don't even seem willing to mix things up in the coaching department after over a decade of seeing goalies have their games decay once they are on the NHL roster. We seemed to make a bad misread of Campbell last summer. We can't even tell which goalie is rolling or had zero confidence.

I'd be cool trading Skinner at a high IF I had any faith this org could identify a low cost replacement. I don't know what magic Vegas is pulling to have Adin Hill as their 3rd goalie that can come in and outplay everyone, but ... I want that lol.

Skinner still had potential I think. Some big improvements needed in his game. I think the talking heads were right that teams realized how little he uses his stick, so they started feeling like they could hold onto pucks and make moves easily in close on him (one D pair in particular constantly abandoning the area around our net obviously helped with this too). His confidence clearly needs some hardening and how his 2nd/3rd efforts on saves vanishes when he's not feeling it. Lateral movement was an issue too. Not a goalie expert, but if you think that stuff is hard to just all fix in the short term, maybe you do need to sell high on him. Clearly there are lots of goalies capable of stellar play out there to be had. Some teams seem to keep on finding them for cheap. Can we though? Not hopeful.

The problem is, who are you getting that is better than Skinner, that you know is better and is cheaper? That's the problem.

My argument against the trade is any trade has to be a win for the Oilers based on where they are. To win a trade for the Oilers, they have to be getting back a play right now at a high level player that is productive right now and will be for multiple years and who's cheaper cap wise for what is going out. So any trade for Skinner won't involve a better goalie back unless that goalie costs way more money or you are getting a futeres goalie who is less proven than Skinner. So if you trade him for whatever package, you have to find a replacement even if that's just a back up and I don't think you can replace Skinners ability as a back up at the price point in the UFA market.


For sure that is the problem, finding quality goalies. There are teams that seem to do it well, we just got goalied by a team that everyone thought would collapse this season without a legit starter. Their 3rd string guy ends up stonewalling us and vastly outplaying our "starter".

We are most definitely not one of teams able to find good goalies, and I don't see signs this org is improving or even trying to improve in that area. A revamp of our goalie coaching side would be a nice sign, but maybe that's not even happening, Dustin Schwartz 4LIFE.

Being consistently bad at evaluating/improving at a position that in many years is one of the top reasons teams go on long playoff runs is something that needs to be fixed though. Just playing with a time bomb if we can't do it. Especially if the coach can't even tell that the guy he's fixated on starting has zero confidence.


Just to summarize, I think many teams could replace Skinner in a pretty passable way, for cheap. It's very bad that we all think the Oilers don't have that capability and that the org doesn't seem to be moving towards being the kind of team that could.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823880 is a reply to message #823875 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:01

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:48

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.


I wish I could trust this org to make a well educated call on goaltending. We don't even seem willing to mix things up in the coaching department after over a decade of seeing goalies have their games decay once they are on the NHL roster. We seemed to make a bad misread of Campbell last summer. We can't even tell which goalie is rolling or had zero confidence.

I'd be cool trading Skinner at a high IF I had any faith this org could identify a low cost replacement. I don't know what magic Vegas is pulling to have Adin Hill as their 3rd goalie that can come in and outplay everyone, but ... I want that lol.

Skinner still had potential I think. Some big improvements needed in his game. I think the talking heads were right that teams realized how little he uses his stick, so they started feeling like they could hold onto pucks and make moves easily in close on him (one D pair in particular constantly abandoning the area around our net obviously helped with this too). His confidence clearly needs some hardening and how his 2nd/3rd efforts on saves vanishes when he's not feeling it. Lateral movement was an issue too. Not a goalie expert, but if you think that stuff is hard to just all fix in the short term, maybe you do need to sell high on him. Clearly there are lots of goalies capable of stellar play out there to be had. Some teams seem to keep on finding them for cheap. Can we though? Not hopeful.

The problem is, who are you getting that is better than Skinner, that you know is better and is cheaper? That's the problem.

My argument against the trade is any trade has to be a win for the Oilers based on where they are. To win a trade for the Oilers, they have to be getting back a play right now at a high level player that is productive right now and will be for multiple years and who's cheaper cap wise for what is going out. So any trade for Skinner won't involve a better goalie back unless that goalie costs way more money or you are getting a futeres goalie who is less proven than Skinner. So if you trade him for whatever package, you have to find a replacement even if that's just a back up and I don't think you can replace Skinners ability as a back up at the price point in the UFA market.


For sure that is the problem, finding quality goalies. There are teams that seem to do it well, we just got goalied by a team that everyone thought would collapse this season without a legit starter. Their 3rd string guy ends up stonewalling us and vastly outplaying our "starter".

We are most definitely not one of teams able to find good goalies, and I don't see signs this org is improving or even trying to improve in that area. A revamp of our goalie coaching side would be a nice sign, but maybe that's not even happening, Dustin Schwartz 4LIFE.

Being consistently bad at evaluating/improving at a position that in many years is one of the top reasons teams go on long playoff runs is something that needs to be fixed though. Just playing with a time bomb if we can't do it. Especially if the coach can't even tell that the guy he's fixated on starting has zero confidence.


Just to summarize, I think many teams could replace Skinner in a pretty passable way, for cheap. It's very bad that we all think the Oilers don't have that capability.

I hate to bring this (and every) conversation back around to bad management. But this is a problem caused by bad management. Signing Campbell to 5x5 was an asinine bet to make. His entire career he's struggled with workload, consistency, and mental fortitude. It should come as no surprise he was inconsistent this year when handed a bunch of money and told to earn it every night. Then Skinner, who had a grand total of 14 appearances, is locked in and completes the tandem before he can actually be tested.

Now the Oilers are stuck, once again, hoping everything just magically works out. I don't think the Oilers will consider trading Skinner because they're scared, lack vision, and because it'll look bad to send a guy away before a contract extension fires up.

[Updated on: Tue, 23 May 2023 11:22]


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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823876 is a reply to message #823872 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32


When I said in another comment you lose a Leon trade every time, I never considered a team would trade you one of the ones I listed above because it would be really stupid on their part.


RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39


The problem is, who are you getting that is better than Skinner, that you know is better and is cheaper? That's the problem.

My argument against the trade is any trade has to be a win for the Oilers based on where they are. To win a trade for the Oilers, they have to be getting back a play right now at a high level player that is productive right now and will be for multiple years and who's cheaper cap wise for what is going out. So any trade for Skinner won't involve a better goalie back unless that goalie costs way more money or you are getting a futeres goalie who is less proven than Skinner. So if you trade him for whatever package, you have to find a replacement even if that's just a back up and I don't think you can replace Skinners ability as a back up at the price point in the UFA market.


See, you're thinking too much like Ken Holland here. You don't see the exact route ahead of you, so you paralyze yourself and don't consider anything.

You don't know what you can get unless you are having the conversations and open to the various possibilities.

It's possible, having had the discussions and examining the possibility of a Skinner deal that you can't find a better solution and you need to go in to next year again with a Soup & Stew combo.

I'm not too concerned with whether a better goalie is cheaper that Skinner, only whether he's better. The fact is, "if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs", then we have two back-up goalies and no starting netminders.

And as you say, there's a market for Stuart Skinner - many teams could use that player. Having actual trade value is a better time to trade someone than the normal Oilers model of selling when the player is valueless.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823899 is a reply to message #823876 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 19:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32


When I said in another comment you lose a Leon trade every time, I never considered a team would trade you one of the ones I listed above because it would be really stupid on their part.


RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39


The problem is, who are you getting that is better than Skinner, that you know is better and is cheaper? That's the problem.

My argument against the trade is any trade has to be a win for the Oilers based on where they are. To win a trade for the Oilers, they have to be getting back a play right now at a high level player that is productive right now and will be for multiple years and who's cheaper cap wise for what is going out. So any trade for Skinner won't involve a better goalie back unless that goalie costs way more money or you are getting a futeres goalie who is less proven than Skinner. So if you trade him for whatever package, you have to find a replacement even if that's just a back up and I don't think you can replace Skinners ability as a back up at the price point in the UFA market.


See, you're thinking too much like Ken Holland here. You don't see the exact route ahead of you, so you paralyze yourself and don't consider anything.

You don't know what you can get unless you are having the conversations and open to the various possibilities.

It's possible, having had the discussions and examining the possibility of a Skinner deal that you can't find a better solution and you need to go in to next year again with a Soup & Stew combo.

I'm not too concerned with whether a better goalie is cheaper that Skinner, only whether he's better. The fact is, "if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs", then we have two back-up goalies and no starting netminders.

And as you say, there's a market for Stuart Skinner - many teams could use that player. Having actual trade value is a better time to trade someone than the normal Oilers model of selling when the player is valueless.


Trades Peter with trade value is much less risky when you have depth in that area. I think it’s be a horrible gamble and I don’t know a goalie who could be had tgat would provide a better option.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823868 is a reply to message #823864 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 09:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.

No RDO, neither of those ideas are crazy. Crazy is deciding with absolute certainty that the Oilers, who have simply not been good enough for the last 4 playoffs, should be sent back on the ice in 5 months with nothing more than a vague hope that we'll get a different result. Now is the time to at least think about crazy alternatives. At some point it may be decided that staying the course is the prudent decision, but for now we should be looking at all options and idea for improvement. What if a better team could be created by selling off a player at a premium right now? What's the problem in a mental exercise trying to figure out player value?





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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823870 is a reply to message #823868 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35

I thought I'd seen max crazy when a Leon trade was floated out there but then the crazy gets doubled down with trading Skinner.

Even if he isn't able to be your starter, he's already shown he can be an extremely good back up. Gone are the days where you have 1 guy playing 65+ games and all your need your back up to do is play the odd back to back and start maybe once every 2 weeks. In today's NHL you need your back up to be able to play 30-35 games. If the expectation is your starter wins 2/3 of his 50 starts, then to have a chance to be a good team, your back up needs to win at least 1/2 of his starts. So you need a legit GOOD goalie as your back up. At 2.6 mill, if Skinner is your back up, that's not a bad contract.

No RDO, neither of those ideas are crazy. Crazy is deciding with absolute certainty that the Oilers, who have simply not been good enough for the last 4 playoffs, should be sent back on the ice in 5 months with nothing more than a vague hope that we'll get a different result. Now is the time to at least think about crazy alternatives. At some point it may be decided that staying the course is the prudent decision, but for now we should be looking at all options and idea for improvement. What if a better team could be created by selling off a player at a premium right now? What's the problem in a mental exercise trying to figure out player value?




Like I said before. You lose a Leon traded 100 times out of 100 in my opinion.

The point of a trade is to improve the team. Leon is a 50+ goal, 115+ pt, every year big, strong, good skating center that skates well, wins draws, kills penalties, elite PP player, drives a line and elevates his team mates. That's not a bias opinion by me, that's what he does and has the stats to back it up. He's beloved by his team, works his ass off in the offseason. He plays hurt, he shows up in the playoffs. He does all of this for 8.5 mill which is probably 4 mill under what he should make. AND he's in his prime years. So what he did this year and the previous ones are totals he will put up for many years to come. To replace not only his goals and points, his ability as a center, his ability on the special teams, you need 2 guys minimum. You aren't getting 2 guys who can maybe produce what Leon does AND do all the other things for 8.5 mill. You aren't and in all likelihood, you don't get the same quality of play.

No team that is looking to bring in Leon to put them over the top, is going to give you a bunch of right now real good roster players because it will dilute their team. If they did, all they did was bring in Leon to go play on a worse team than before the trade. So you MIGHT get 1 decent roster player, then a bunch of picks and prospects with the hope that the prospect might be good in a couple of years to make the trade "a win". But when you are in a cup win mode, dumping players for futures is stupid. If you trade him to a bad team, you are getting a bad teams crap back or again a bunch of picks and prospects hoping that in a few years, those work out. Either way, if the goal is to win the cup in the next 2 seasons, you lose a Leon trade every single time. For a site and people that continuously bring up bad trades where the Oilers lost, I am baffled how people in here would float out a trade that in all likelihood they lose badly.

When it comes to Skinner. They have a homegrown, loves the market, under contract for 3 seasons goalie who just played 50 games for you and played at an above average level. So even if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs. Good goaltending is a struggle for most NHL teams and you have a guy who can give you good goaltending at minimum as a back up signed for an affordable deal. So again, you lose this trade in all likelihood very badly because goalies don't have the same value as position players in trades generally AND then you have to go find a guy to replace him which in a league that lacks good goalies, is hard to do.

If you want to make a change to the core to shake it up with a player coming off a HIGH season. Trade Nuge. Sure his playoffs wasn't the greatest but he had 11 pts in 12 games, so on paper, it doesn't look that bad. He can play center or wing. He can play all your special teams and do a good job, PP especially. Good skater, good guy, never complains. Just scored 37 goals, 104 pts (totals he won't ever come close too again probably but don't tell anyone that). He's got a longer term deal but at 5.125 mill for a legit top 6 forward capable of scoring 25-30, 60+ pts. It's a bargain deal. Would it be a loss to the team? Yes but when you have McD and Leon, if you take out this one off season, you can replace what Nuge normally scores fairly easily. You can find a 25 goal scorer for what Nuge makes or less when you have one of the Oilers 2 centers feeding him pucks. You can give Nuge's PK time to someone else and not have it fall off. Not that the Oilers PK is that great.

So if you want to shock the team to it's core, that would be a bold trade where you don't automatically lose it. You can win a Nuge trade.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823874 is a reply to message #823870 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23


Like I said before. You lose a Leon traded 100 times out of 100 in my opinion.

The point of a trade is to improve the team. Leon is a 50+ goal, 115+ pt, every year big, strong, good skating center that skates well, wins draws, kills penalties, elite PP player, drives a line and elevates his team mates. That's not a bias opinion by me, that's what he does and has the stats to back it up. He's beloved by his team, works his ass off in the offseason. He plays hurt, he shows up in the playoffs. He does all of this for 8.5 mill which is probably 4 mill under what he should make. AND he's in his prime years. So what he did this year and the previous ones are totals he will put up for many years to come. To replace not only his goals and points, his ability as a center, his ability on the special teams, you need 2 guys minimum. You aren't getting 2 guys who can maybe produce what Leon does AND do all the other things for 8.5 mill. You aren't and in all likelihood, you don't get the same quality of play.

No team that is looking to bring in Leon to put them over the top, is going to give you a bunch of right now real good roster players because it will dilute their team. If they did, all they did was bring in Leon to go play on a worse team than before the trade. So you MIGHT get 1 decent roster player, then a bunch of picks and prospects with the hope that the prospect might be good in a couple of years to make the trade "a win". But when you are in a cup win mode, dumping players for futures is stupid. If you trade him to a bad team, you are getting a bad teams crap back or again a bunch of picks and prospects hoping that in a few years, those work out. Either way, if the goal is to win the cup in the next 2 seasons, you lose a Leon trade every single time. For a site and people that continuously bring up bad trades where the Oilers lost, I am baffled how people in here would float out a trade that in all likelihood they lose badly.

When it comes to Skinner. They have a homegrown, loves the market, under contract for 3 seasons goalie who just played 50 games for you and played at an above average level. So even if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs. Good goaltending is a struggle for most NHL teams and you have a guy who can give you good goaltending at minimum as a back up signed for an affordable deal. So again, you lose this trade in all likelihood very badly because goalies don't have the same value as position players in trades generally AND then you have to go find a guy to replace him which in a league that lacks good goalies, is hard to do.

If you want to make a change to the core to shake it up with a player coming off a HIGH season. Trade Nuge. Sure his playoffs wasn't the greatest but he had 11 pts in 12 games, so on paper, it doesn't look that bad. He can play center or wing. He can play all your special teams and do a good job, PP especially. Good skater, good guy, never complains. Just scored 37 goals, 104 pts (totals he won't ever come close too again probably but don't tell anyone that). He's got a longer term deal but at 5.125 mill for a legit top 6 forward capable of scoring 25-30, 60+ pts. It's a bargain deal. Would it be a loss to the team? Yes but when you have McD and Leon, if you take out this one off season, you can replace what Nuge normally scores fairly easily. You can find a 25 goal scorer for what Nuge makes or less when you have one of the Oilers 2 centers feeding him pucks. You can give Nuge's PK time to someone else and not have it fall off. Not that the Oilers PK is that great.

So if you want to shock the team to it's core, that would be a bold trade where you don't automatically lose it. You can win a Nuge trade.

You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade. It's about questioning whether or not the Oilers can win the Cup with McDavid and Draisaitl. BUT even if it was about shaking up the core and winning a trade now is the time to ask the question simply because of the time left on his contract. Frankly, it needs to be asked.

Now if you think, upon due consideration, that the Oilers have a reasonable shot at winning the cup in the next two years I absolutely accept that a Draisaitl trade is a no go. Smyth260 said he'd risk losing Drai for nothing for a chance to win the cup before 2025. I think that's a prudent course of action... if you think they can win the cup. Hell, if you've accepted playoff mediocrity because you pragmatically think this is the best we'll get to watch I'll even grudgingly accept that (although I'd disagree).



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823878 is a reply to message #823874 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55


You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade.


FWIW, any team that makes a trade simply to "shake up the core" is clearly run by idiots. Trades need a real purpose, and if you're willing to lose a deal to worry your players about the impermanence of their positions??? Well, that's a ridiculous premise and you deserve to continue losing hockey games.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823881 is a reply to message #823878 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:06

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55


You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade.


FWIW, any team that makes a trade simply to "shake up the core" is clearly run by idiots. Trades need a real purpose, and if you're willing to lose a deal to worry your players about the impermanence of their positions??? Well, that's a ridiculous premise and you deserve to continue losing hockey games.

I agree. I made my comment to try and figure out why on earth someone would think trading a top 5 player in the NHL is a good idea.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823882 is a reply to message #823881 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:21

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:06

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55


You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade.


FWIW, any team that makes a trade simply to "shake up the core" is clearly run by idiots. Trades need a real purpose, and if you're willing to lose a deal to worry your players about the impermanence of their positions??? Well, that's a ridiculous premise and you deserve to continue losing hockey games.

I agree. I made my comment to try and figure out why on earth someone would think trading a top 5 player in the NHL is a good idea.

Because you don't think you can win in the next two years with the team as its presently constructed and want to figure out how to win with the top 1 best player in the world. Honestly, it's a pretty simple concept.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823885 is a reply to message #823882 ]
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:23

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:21

Adam wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:06

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55


You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade.


FWIW, any team that makes a trade simply to "shake up the core" is clearly run by idiots. Trades need a real purpose, and if you're willing to lose a deal to worry your players about the impermanence of their positions??? Well, that's a ridiculous premise and you deserve to continue losing hockey games.

I agree. I made my comment to try and figure out why on earth someone would think trading a top 5 player in the NHL is a good idea.

Because you don't think you can win in the next two years with the team as its presently constructed and want to figure out how to win with the top 1 best player in the world. Honestly, it's a pretty simple concept.

I understand your concept completely and I think it's utterly wrong. If you are a fan of the team and actually want them to win, you don't endorse trading away a probably future hall of fame player in the middle of his prime years.

But your point as sparked a debate so maybe that was your point.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823879 is a reply to message #823874 ]
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23


Like I said before. You lose a Leon traded 100 times out of 100 in my opinion.

The point of a trade is to improve the team. Leon is a 50+ goal, 115+ pt, every year big, strong, good skating center that skates well, wins draws, kills penalties, elite PP player, drives a line and elevates his team mates. That's not a bias opinion by me, that's what he does and has the stats to back it up. He's beloved by his team, works his ass off in the offseason. He plays hurt, he shows up in the playoffs. He does all of this for 8.5 mill which is probably 4 mill under what he should make. AND he's in his prime years. So what he did this year and the previous ones are totals he will put up for many years to come. To replace not only his goals and points, his ability as a center, his ability on the special teams, you need 2 guys minimum. You aren't getting 2 guys who can maybe produce what Leon does AND do all the other things for 8.5 mill. You aren't and in all likelihood, you don't get the same quality of play.

No team that is looking to bring in Leon to put them over the top, is going to give you a bunch of right now real good roster players because it will dilute their team. If they did, all they did was bring in Leon to go play on a worse team than before the trade. So you MIGHT get 1 decent roster player, then a bunch of picks and prospects with the hope that the prospect might be good in a couple of years to make the trade "a win". But when you are in a cup win mode, dumping players for futures is stupid. If you trade him to a bad team, you are getting a bad teams crap back or again a bunch of picks and prospects hoping that in a few years, those work out. Either way, if the goal is to win the cup in the next 2 seasons, you lose a Leon trade every single time. For a site and people that continuously bring up bad trades where the Oilers lost, I am baffled how people in here would float out a trade that in all likelihood they lose badly.

When it comes to Skinner. They have a homegrown, loves the market, under contract for 3 seasons goalie who just played 50 games for you and played at an above average level. So even if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs. Good goaltending is a struggle for most NHL teams and you have a guy who can give you good goaltending at minimum as a back up signed for an affordable deal. So again, you lose this trade in all likelihood very badly because goalies don't have the same value as position players in trades generally AND then you have to go find a guy to replace him which in a league that lacks good goalies, is hard to do.

If you want to make a change to the core to shake it up with a player coming off a HIGH season. Trade Nuge. Sure his playoffs wasn't the greatest but he had 11 pts in 12 games, so on paper, it doesn't look that bad. He can play center or wing. He can play all your special teams and do a good job, PP especially. Good skater, good guy, never complains. Just scored 37 goals, 104 pts (totals he won't ever come close too again probably but don't tell anyone that). He's got a longer term deal but at 5.125 mill for a legit top 6 forward capable of scoring 25-30, 60+ pts. It's a bargain deal. Would it be a loss to the team? Yes but when you have McD and Leon, if you take out this one off season, you can replace what Nuge normally scores fairly easily. You can find a 25 goal scorer for what Nuge makes or less when you have one of the Oilers 2 centers feeding him pucks. You can give Nuge's PK time to someone else and not have it fall off. Not that the Oilers PK is that great.

So if you want to shock the team to it's core, that would be a bold trade where you don't automatically lose it. You can win a Nuge trade.

You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade. It's about questioning whether or not the Oilers can win the Cup with McDavid and Draisaitl. BUT even if it was about shaking up the core and winning a trade now is the time to ask the question simply because of the time left on his contract. Frankly, it needs to be asked.

Now if you think, upon due consideration, that the Oilers have a reasonable shot at winning the cup in the next two years I absolutely accept that a Draisaitl trade is a no go. Smyth260 said he'd risk losing Drai for nothing for a chance to win the cup before 2025. I think that's a prudent course of action... if you think they can win the cup. Hell, if you've accepted playoff mediocrity because you pragmatically think this is the best we'll get to watch I'll even grudgingly accept that (although I'd disagree).

I will humor you.

So you feel the Oilers don't have a shot to win the cup with McD and Leon. So what's a trade of Leon that you think improves them?



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823884 is a reply to message #823879 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 11:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23


Like I said before. You lose a Leon traded 100 times out of 100 in my opinion.

The point of a trade is to improve the team. Leon is a 50+ goal, 115+ pt, every year big, strong, good skating center that skates well, wins draws, kills penalties, elite PP player, drives a line and elevates his team mates. That's not a bias opinion by me, that's what he does and has the stats to back it up. He's beloved by his team, works his ass off in the offseason. He plays hurt, he shows up in the playoffs. He does all of this for 8.5 mill which is probably 4 mill under what he should make. AND he's in his prime years. So what he did this year and the previous ones are totals he will put up for many years to come. To replace not only his goals and points, his ability as a center, his ability on the special teams, you need 2 guys minimum. You aren't getting 2 guys who can maybe produce what Leon does AND do all the other things for 8.5 mill. You aren't and in all likelihood, you don't get the same quality of play.

No team that is looking to bring in Leon to put them over the top, is going to give you a bunch of right now real good roster players because it will dilute their team. If they did, all they did was bring in Leon to go play on a worse team than before the trade. So you MIGHT get 1 decent roster player, then a bunch of picks and prospects with the hope that the prospect might be good in a couple of years to make the trade "a win". But when you are in a cup win mode, dumping players for futures is stupid. If you trade him to a bad team, you are getting a bad teams crap back or again a bunch of picks and prospects hoping that in a few years, those work out. Either way, if the goal is to win the cup in the next 2 seasons, you lose a Leon trade every single time. For a site and people that continuously bring up bad trades where the Oilers lost, I am baffled how people in here would float out a trade that in all likelihood they lose badly.

When it comes to Skinner. They have a homegrown, loves the market, under contract for 3 seasons goalie who just played 50 games for you and played at an above average level. So even if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs. Good goaltending is a struggle for most NHL teams and you have a guy who can give you good goaltending at minimum as a back up signed for an affordable deal. So again, you lose this trade in all likelihood very badly because goalies don't have the same value as position players in trades generally AND then you have to go find a guy to replace him which in a league that lacks good goalies, is hard to do.

If you want to make a change to the core to shake it up with a player coming off a HIGH season. Trade Nuge. Sure his playoffs wasn't the greatest but he had 11 pts in 12 games, so on paper, it doesn't look that bad. He can play center or wing. He can play all your special teams and do a good job, PP especially. Good skater, good guy, never complains. Just scored 37 goals, 104 pts (totals he won't ever come close too again probably but don't tell anyone that). He's got a longer term deal but at 5.125 mill for a legit top 6 forward capable of scoring 25-30, 60+ pts. It's a bargain deal. Would it be a loss to the team? Yes but when you have McD and Leon, if you take out this one off season, you can replace what Nuge normally scores fairly easily. You can find a 25 goal scorer for what Nuge makes or less when you have one of the Oilers 2 centers feeding him pucks. You can give Nuge's PK time to someone else and not have it fall off. Not that the Oilers PK is that great.

So if you want to shock the team to it's core, that would be a bold trade where you don't automatically lose it. You can win a Nuge trade.

You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade. It's about questioning whether or not the Oilers can win the Cup with McDavid and Draisaitl. BUT even if it was about shaking up the core and winning a trade now is the time to ask the question simply because of the time left on his contract. Frankly, it needs to be asked.

Now if you think, upon due consideration, that the Oilers have a reasonable shot at winning the cup in the next two years I absolutely accept that a Draisaitl trade is a no go. Smyth260 said he'd risk losing Drai for nothing for a chance to win the cup before 2025. I think that's a prudent course of action... if you think they can win the cup. Hell, if you've accepted playoff mediocrity because you pragmatically think this is the best we'll get to watch I'll even grudgingly accept that (although I'd disagree).

I will humor you.

So you feel the Oilers don't have a shot to win the cup with McD and Leon. So what's a trade of Leon that you think improves them?

No, I don't. I think recent history lends credence to this viewpoint and creates a stronger argument that they aren't properly assembled to win in the playoffs.

What's a trade? I'd start with looking for 5 assets. A center to replace part of Draisaitl, a defenseman to improve Ceci, a first contract / arb ineligible NHL player like Bunting two years ago, and a couple of prospects or picks to use at the deadline. Now, I don't know that a trade like that exists, but I'd certainly try to find out if it does.

Keep in mind I would never just trade any player especially Draisaitl (especially next summer). But I certainly would establish what my expected trade value would be and see how close or how much more I can get.



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823891 is a reply to message #823884 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23


Like I said before. You lose a Leon traded 100 times out of 100 in my opinion.

The point of a trade is to improve the team. Leon is a 50+ goal, 115+ pt, every year big, strong, good skating center that skates well, wins draws, kills penalties, elite PP player, drives a line and elevates his team mates. That's not a bias opinion by me, that's what he does and has the stats to back it up. He's beloved by his team, works his ass off in the offseason. He plays hurt, he shows up in the playoffs. He does all of this for 8.5 mill which is probably 4 mill under what he should make. AND he's in his prime years. So what he did this year and the previous ones are totals he will put up for many years to come. To replace not only his goals and points, his ability as a center, his ability on the special teams, you need 2 guys minimum. You aren't getting 2 guys who can maybe produce what Leon does AND do all the other things for 8.5 mill. You aren't and in all likelihood, you don't get the same quality of play.

No team that is looking to bring in Leon to put them over the top, is going to give you a bunch of right now real good roster players because it will dilute their team. If they did, all they did was bring in Leon to go play on a worse team than before the trade. So you MIGHT get 1 decent roster player, then a bunch of picks and prospects with the hope that the prospect might be good in a couple of years to make the trade "a win". But when you are in a cup win mode, dumping players for futures is stupid. If you trade him to a bad team, you are getting a bad teams crap back or again a bunch of picks and prospects hoping that in a few years, those work out. Either way, if the goal is to win the cup in the next 2 seasons, you lose a Leon trade every single time. For a site and people that continuously bring up bad trades where the Oilers lost, I am baffled how people in here would float out a trade that in all likelihood they lose badly.

When it comes to Skinner. They have a homegrown, loves the market, under contract for 3 seasons goalie who just played 50 games for you and played at an above average level. So even if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs. Good goaltending is a struggle for most NHL teams and you have a guy who can give you good goaltending at minimum as a back up signed for an affordable deal. So again, you lose this trade in all likelihood very badly because goalies don't have the same value as position players in trades generally AND then you have to go find a guy to replace him which in a league that lacks good goalies, is hard to do.

If you want to make a change to the core to shake it up with a player coming off a HIGH season. Trade Nuge. Sure his playoffs wasn't the greatest but he had 11 pts in 12 games, so on paper, it doesn't look that bad. He can play center or wing. He can play all your special teams and do a good job, PP especially. Good skater, good guy, never complains. Just scored 37 goals, 104 pts (totals he won't ever come close too again probably but don't tell anyone that). He's got a longer term deal but at 5.125 mill for a legit top 6 forward capable of scoring 25-30, 60+ pts. It's a bargain deal. Would it be a loss to the team? Yes but when you have McD and Leon, if you take out this one off season, you can replace what Nuge normally scores fairly easily. You can find a 25 goal scorer for what Nuge makes or less when you have one of the Oilers 2 centers feeding him pucks. You can give Nuge's PK time to someone else and not have it fall off. Not that the Oilers PK is that great.

So if you want to shock the team to it's core, that would be a bold trade where you don't automatically lose it. You can win a Nuge trade.

You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade. It's about questioning whether or not the Oilers can win the Cup with McDavid and Draisaitl. BUT even if it was about shaking up the core and winning a trade now is the time to ask the question simply because of the time left on his contract. Frankly, it needs to be asked.

Now if you think, upon due consideration, that the Oilers have a reasonable shot at winning the cup in the next two years I absolutely accept that a Draisaitl trade is a no go. Smyth260 said he'd risk losing Drai for nothing for a chance to win the cup before 2025. I think that's a prudent course of action... if you think they can win the cup. Hell, if you've accepted playoff mediocrity because you pragmatically think this is the best we'll get to watch I'll even grudgingly accept that (although I'd disagree).

I will humor you.

So you feel the Oilers don't have a shot to win the cup with McD and Leon. So what's a trade of Leon that you think improves them?

No, I don't. I think recent history lends credence to this viewpoint and creates a stronger argument that they aren't properly assembled to win in the playoffs.

What's a trade? I'd start with looking for 5 assets. A center to replace part of Draisaitl, a defenseman to improve Ceci, a first contract / arb ineligible NHL player like Bunting two years ago, and a couple of prospects or picks to use at the deadline. Now, I don't know that a trade like that exists, but I'd certainly try to find out if it does.

Keep in mind I would never just trade any player especially Draisaitl (especially next summer). But I certainly would establish what my expected trade value would be and see how close or how much more I can get.


Great. So how you all fitting that in for 8.5 mill or less? That's Drai's salary.
Leon's last 5 yrs.
82 GP - 50 - 105
71 GP (covid shut down but won the MVP and scoring title) 43 -110. Over 82, that's a 50-127 pace.
56 GP (covid yr) 31-84 - 45 123 pace
80 GP - 55-110
80 GP - 52 - 128

So if you average it out, over 82 games, he averages 50 goals, 119 pts.

A center to replace part of Drai. You can't replace what he does scoring completely. You are going for a cup so you want a very GOOD second line center so I think expecting 2/3 of his production for a second line center is reasonable. So in the 33 goal, 80 pt range. Schiefele does those numbers and is a good center and only makes 6. Horvat just resigned put up 38-70 and signed for 8.5. So take the middle 7.25 mill, round it off to 7 to replace a good chunk of Leon in a good second line center.

Ceci makes 3.25 mill. I agree, I think they need to upgrade him. He's a top 4 guy on a good deal but he's a #4 in my opinion. I think they need to find a better defender than Ceci for Nurse. I don't think they need a guy that produces a ton of points to play with Nurse. I think a guy like Oleksiak or Larsson are good examples of top 4, very good defending dmen who don't score a ton. Oleksiak makes 4.6, Larsson 4. Take the middle. 4.3 for Ceci's replacement. I don't see how you are getting an upgrade on Ceci for less.

So 7 for the center, 4.3 for the dman in your trade. So 11.3 so far.

First contract player - I assume for Leon you aren't taking some low end guy but a teams high end first contract guy. Round numbers, 900k.

12.2 mill for the center, dman and the first contract player.

Bunting type of player that is an arb guy. If you want an arb guy, I assume he was on ELC;s making squat, had a good year now wants a big raise. So maybe 1.5 mill to be low end? That's twice league min.

So now we are up to 13.7 and I would say that's being conservative to get all these good players on all these not overpriced deals. So Leon is gone and his 8.5 mill. Ceci I assume is gone. You have his replacement already so maybe you dump him for picks. So you are up to 11.75. Now you have to clear off another 2 mill min of contract to make your trade work.

So who else goes?



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 Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823896 is a reply to message #823891 ]
Tue, 23 May 2023 13:17 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26


Great. So how you all fitting that in for 8.5 mill or less? That's Drai's salary.
Leon's last 5 yrs.
82 GP - 50 - 105
71 GP (covid shut down but won the MVP and scoring title) 43 -110. Over 82, that's a 50-127 pace.
56 GP (covid yr) 31-84 - 45 123 pace
80 GP - 55-110
80 GP - 52 - 128

So if you average it out, over 82 games, he averages 50 goals, 119 pts.

A center to replace part of Drai. You can't replace what he does scoring completely. You are going for a cup so you want a very GOOD second line center so I think expecting 2/3 of his production for a second line center is reasonable. So in the 33 goal, 80 pt range. Schiefele does those numbers and is a good center and only makes 6. Horvat just resigned put up 38-70 and signed for 8.5. So take the middle 7.25 mill, round it off to 7 to replace a good chunk of Leon in a good second line center.

Ceci makes 3.25 mill. I agree, I think they need to upgrade him. He's a top 4 guy on a good deal but he's a #4 in my opinion. I think they need to find a better defender than Ceci for Nurse. I don't think they need a guy that produces a ton of points to play with Nurse. I think a guy like Oleksiak or Larsson are good examples of top 4, very good defending dmen who don't score a ton. Oleksiak makes 4.6, Larsson 4. Take the middle. 4.3 for Ceci's replacement. I don't see how you are getting an upgrade on Ceci for less.

So 7 for the center, 4.3 for the dman in your trade. So 11.3 so far.

First contract player - I assume for Leon you aren't taking some low end guy but a teams high end first contract guy. Round numbers, 900k.

12.2 mill for the center, dman and the first contract player.

Bunting type of player that is an arb guy. If you want an arb guy, I assume he was on ELC;s making squat, had a good year now wants a big raise. So maybe 1.5 mill to be low end? That's twice league min.

So now we are up to 13.7 and I would say that's being conservative to get all these good players on all these not overpriced deals. So Leon is gone and his 8.5 mill. Ceci I assume is gone. You have his replacement already so maybe you dump him for picks. So you are up to 11.75. Now you have to clear off another 2 mill min of contract to make your trade work.

So who else goes?

Nurse, Nuge, Yammo, Ceci, Foegele, Campbell. A lot of options and a lot of ways to get better and cheaper. Selling high and moving on early are among the best. But don't worry about that, you're missing the forest for the trees.

The Oilers, should they trade Draisaitl, do not need to replace his offense. Honestly, they'd be better of if Draisaitl and McDavid didn't replace their own offense. The Oilers don't need to lead the league in GF by 20 while being middle in the pack in GA. If you look at the teams that scored 3.5 goals / game at were +30 or better on differential I think you'll see something of a sweat spot. Remember, they've shown they cannot rely on their scoring or their power play in the playoffs. Once the Oilers decide what they want to be they can figure out who gets them there.

Thinking about it, I think the best path forward is keeping the core for two years and figuring out how to make them score 40 fewer goals.



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