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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817605 is a reply to message #817603 ]
Sun, 05 February 2023 23:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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NetBOG wrote on Sun, 05 February 2023 19:20

Isles sign Bo Horvat for 8x$8.5 million.

I just don't understand. The guy has been a 60 pt (being generous) player in his career up to this contract year. Why would you pay a prospect and a 1st rounder for the privilege to overpay him by $2.5 million per year for 8 years? Is there something about this guy I don't get? He's basically Nuge.


I think its Islanders in desperation for offense.. + Lou realizing his clock is ticking..

Horvat also has a NMC for first half o deal.. 16 team no trade after.. he's an Islander now.

[Updated on: Sun, 05 February 2023 23:04]


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P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817607 is a reply to message #817605 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 08:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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8.5 mill for 8 years for a guy who's career high to date is 61 pts. OK then. I know this season he will have career high in goals and points, surprise surprise his UFA season. Funny how massive career years seem to happen pretty regularly for players going into UFA but it's highly unlikely he will match them given his career numbers. He's a good player but probably 2 mill overpaid next season.


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817608 is a reply to message #817607 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 09:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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He's scored 30 twice now and 20 and few times. He's a legit NHL scorer at this point. The question is if he's a playmaker too. Pretty big gamble and I wouldn't make it, but big Lou is a cup winning GM so what do I know?


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817609 is a reply to message #817608 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 09:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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He's a good player, I just wouldn't pay him 8.5 mill. Nuge is a good player as well, is Horvat 3.4 mill better? I don't think so.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817610 is a reply to message #817608 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 09:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 09:14

He's scored 30 twice now and 20 and few times. He's a legit NHL scorer at this point. The question is if he's a playmaker too. Pretty big gamble and I wouldn't make it, but big Lou is a cup winning GM so what do I know?


In the end, what I think I'd be concerned about if I was an Islanders fan is that Lamoriello is now 80 years old. He's going to be less concerned now than he might have been once about the tail end of long deals because his time for one last championship draws short.

Horvat is a good player who's going to contribute positively. He's probably not going to be able to maintain his torrid pace, because he is shooting at WAAAAY above his career shooting percentage. It's going to revert back to the norm at some point. He'll still be a good player, but he'll now be an overpaid one.

I don't quite understand the decision by Lamoriello to call the signing "too much for too long" though. Why crap on your own signing? The player could certainly feel cause to be offended by that and no one had a gun to your head Lou...you could have decided not to make that offer.

Ah well. Even with him perpetually grouchy and not nearly as effective now as he once was, he's still a damn sight better than our senior citizen general manager.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817611 is a reply to message #817610 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 09:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Does Lou fancy himself as a comedian that likes to make fun of himself or did he have a senior moment, black out while he was doing the Horvat deal then come too and realize what he did was a mistake? I thought what he said was funny as hell. "it's too long and too much money" but for him to say it considering he would have approved the contract makes no sense.

So they now have Horvat who is shooting the lights out this season but when you look at his career is probably going to revert back to what he's been over his career, a guy who scores +/- by a few 30 goals but ends up with in the 60's in points.

Then they have Barzal kicking in next year at 9.15 mill who again if you look at his career, he probably hovers are round low 20's in goals and flirts with 70 pts. Maybe because he's youngish, he can improve on those totals but he has a ways to go to be worth over 9 mill.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817612 is a reply to message #817610 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 10:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
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Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 09:49


Ah well. Even with him perpetually grouchy and not nearly as effective now as he once was, he's still a damn sight better than our senior citizen general manager.


The one that signed Hyman and Nuge to spectacular deals? Lou hasn't been effective in 20 years.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817614 is a reply to message #817612 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 10:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:02

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 09:49


Ah well. Even with him perpetually grouchy and not nearly as effective now as he once was, he's still a damn sight better than our senior citizen general manager.


The one that signed Hyman and Nuge to spectacular deals? Lou hasn't been effective in 20 years.


Lou went to the conference finals twice with the Islanders and even won some games there.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817619 is a reply to message #817612 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 11:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:02

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 09:49


Ah well. Even with him perpetually grouchy and not nearly as effective now as he once was, he's still a damn sight better than our senior citizen general manager.


The one that signed Hyman and Nuge to spectacular deals? Lou hasn't been effective in 20 years.



Are they spectacular deals? Or do those two players play a ton with the best two scorers in the NHL, especially on the powerplay? Nugent-Hopkins has 32 of his 60 points on the man advantage. Hyman is at 19 of his 60. They've both played almost the whole season with either McDavid or Draisaitl as their linemates.

I mean, they still need to put up the points, so definitely, I think we can applaud them, but let's temper it a little bit. Would they be providing the same value on those contracts if they were playing somewhere else? Or even if they were given their own line at even strength?

As for Lamoriello, he's got a lot out of a team that doesn't have a ton of star power. In the McDavid era, the Islanders have made the playoffs more and won more playoff series, despite the Oilers having the best player in the game and another who's arguably top five. The Islanders have done it all with relatively little star power - which hurts even for player acquisition, because without McDavid, does Nuge sign back here on a relatively team friendly deal? Does Hyman choose Edmonton?

I think it's clear that Lamoriello's peak is not his time with the Islanders, but I think it's a tough argument to make that Holland has in any way out-performed him. Certainly I think if you put the two side by side on trades or signings in the last couple years, Lamoriello comes out ahead. Also - there is exactly zero chance that Lamoriello lets the league @#%$ his team over completely on the James Neal/Milan Lucic extra draft pick or the disappearing Duncan Keith cap space. If it happened, he certainly wouldn't have let it go without making a single comment to the media.

[Updated on: Mon, 06 February 2023 16:53]


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817613 is a reply to message #817607 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 10:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 08:31

8.5 mill for 8 years for a guy who's career high to date is 61 pts. OK then. I know this season he will have career high in goals and points, surprise surprise his UFA season. Funny how massive career years seem to happen pretty regularly for players going into UFA but it's highly unlikely he will match them given his career numbers. He's a good player but probably 2 mill overpaid next season.


I actually doubt that you'd find much correlation were you to chart player performance versus contract year. Some players have good years, some have bad years. I don't think that most players are able to just turn it on and off when they wish. If they did have that ability, I suspect Horvat would have had more high scoring seasons.

The thesis is basically that players are driven by greed, and that seeing a payday on the horizon, they bear down that extra amount and that drives their offensive output. It's a flawed premise in so many ways:
- First, their performance in other years also is likely to impact their salary, so they'd do best if they were consistently producing over all the years, rather than just having one spike year ahead of a contract negotiation.
- Secondly, your ability to perform as a hockey player isn't entirely individual - you still need to get ice time from coaches and you need your teammates to help you perform.
- Thirdly, does greed generally work that at a year before a potential reward (which will be substantial if you maintain current level or have a better year) that you're going to work an abnormal amount harder? I don't think that lines up well at all.
- Finally, it doesn't really chart to performance. Here's a look at Horvat's career:
2014-15 - 0.37 ppg as a rookie
2015-16 - 0.49 ppg
2016-17 - 0.64 ppg as a RFA-to-be
2017-18 - 0.69 ppg would have been better to score at this rate a year earlier!
2018-19 - 0.74 ppg 2nd year of a six-year deal? What's he doing improving so far ahead of his next contract?
2019-20 - 0.77 ppg more growth? Shouldn't he be coasting now?
2020-21 - 0.70 ppg finally the inherent laziness kicks in in year 4 of 6. No greed to motivate him this year, I suppose.
2021-22 - 0.74 ppg
2022-23 - 1.10 ppg - greed engaged, making him suddenly shoot at 22% efficiency as opposed to his career average of 14%...





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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817615 is a reply to message #817613 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.

[Updated on: Mon, 06 February 2023 10:54]


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817620 is a reply to message #817615 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 11:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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I'm not saying that there aren't guys that don't put in a bit extra in their contract year in order to get paid. I wonder if it's less about those guys working harder and maybe also just making different/better decisions almost subconsciously, like eating better or not going out 3 nights a week because they are thinking about their impending contract negotiations.

Regardless, according to CapFriendly there are currently 86 UFA-to-be's currently making more than $2,000,000, so safe to assume that they are pretty established NHLers at this point. I think just by random chance, you would have more than a couple of those guys have career years in this year.

Interestingly, and I don't know if there's been anyone has looked at professional athletes specifically and maybe they're wired differently, but the research shows that cash incentives (especially large cash incentives) are actually detrimental to performance overall as they tend to distract us from the performance (ie. we start thinking about the money instead of what we need to do to perform better). Daniel Pink wrote a really good book on this topic called 'Drive', if anyone is interested.

Anyways, would be cool to see someone take a look at contract year performance and control for things like line-mates, deployment, etc and see how it shows up.



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19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817622 is a reply to message #817615 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817623 is a reply to message #817622 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 14:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
benv  is currently offline benv
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Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.



A lot of phenomenon like these can be debunked with further analysis. I remember reading (at least a decade ago) an article debunking the "sophmore slump"--the thinking that a player's second season will often be worse than their first. Over the course of a player's career they will inevitably have good and bad seasons. So when a rookie has a really great season the media will start paying attention and then criticize them when the sophmore season isn't as good. But this is very often just a random element when a player has one of their best seasons as their rookie season--without anything else to go by, we assume it's the norm for them, but it was just a highlight. It's just that we only pay attention to those with dynamite rookie campaigns. There's really nothing to it at all.

As for the "contract year bump" theory, I would think it would be easy enough to take all players and look at their contract year performance compared to other years and see if there's actually a statistically significant difference. I would guess it's probably not much. If you think that an average contract is about 5 years, there's a 20% chance a player has their best season during a contract year--for every Bo Horvat there's a Patrick Hornqvist.

A fun exercise I've tried is next time your chatting with co-workers drop the statistic that "40% of sick days are taken on either Monday or Friday". I've always got the same reaction: "I'm not surprised, people are faking sniffles to get a long weekend", until you point that 40% is what it should be if it was evenly distributed.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817624 is a reply to message #817622 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 14:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.

I am not here to get into a debate with you. I have learned my lesson and have come to the conclusion debating with you is completely pointless. You are the type of person when you have an opinion, it takes an act of god to get you to consider other things. If you decide the sky is green, the sky is green until you tell us otherwise.

I have not completed an in depth study looking at every free agent contact for the last 3 decades comparing their yearly production before and after they sign their first free agent contact. All I have is what I have observed and what I have observed is every single year there are players that go into their first UFA window and every single year there ends up being a bunch of players who have massive career years. Do all of them players going into their first UFA window have career years? No but a bunch of them will.

I have seen time and time again career bottom 6 guys who normally score 10 goals a year, all of a sudden flirt with 20 for 1 season, then sink back down to their normal 10 the very next year and years after. I have seen very good players all of a sudden score at a way higher clip than they have ever done before and then go back to their normal levels right after a contract. I don't know why it happens. I don't know if its just pure luck. But it happens fairly often or at least enough that when a player does it, it's not a surprise.

Horvat has 31 goals, 54 pts in 49 games. That's a 52 goal, 90 pt pace. Last year he was on pace to have his best year. 31 goals, 52 pts in 70 games. That's a 36 goal, 61 pt pace. That would be a career high in goals, tied for career high in pts. But still WAY off this years pace. Do I think next season or any year after, Horvat will be on a 50 goal, 90 pt pace? Maybe he could do it but I don't think he will do it. Would it shock me if next year he scored over 30 goals, 60 pts? No because that's what he's normally scored except this season. Why won't he produce this seasons numbers again? I have no clue but I doubt he will.

Kadri is another case. Last season he had 28 goals, 87 pts in 71 games. So a 32 goal, 100 pt season. His best ever season before that was 32 goals, 61 pts in 82 games. So on the money for goals, not even close in points. He was going into his UFA season last year. THis season. 19 goals, 38 pts in 50 games. That's a 31 goal, 62 pt pace in 82. So right on the money for his previous career best before last year and right in the range of most other seasons. But pretty far off from the 100 pt pace he was on last year. Previous seasons with the Avs, he didn't get close to those totals. What's the reasons for last year? I don't know. Avs were a good team last year but they were a good team before that and so were the Leafs. Is Calgary as good as the Avs were last year? No but is Kadri playing with good players on the Flames? Yes. Is the players Kadri is playing with and the team 40 pts personally worse than the Avs for Kadri? I have a hard time believing they are but maybe. I don't have the answer for you.

But will there be more players like Horvat shooting the lights out this year as they head to UFA? Yes there will be. Will there be next year and the year after that and so on? Yes there will be. Do I think their upcoming contract will have an impact on their season? I think so. Can I prove that they try harder in their UFA year or take more chances or whatever? No I can't but I think they do.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817626 is a reply to message #817624 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 15:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Babaganoosh2.0  is currently offline Babaganoosh2.0
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 14:23

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.

I am not here to get into a debate with you. I have learned my lesson and have come to the conclusion debating with you is completely pointless. You are the type of person when you have an opinion, it takes an act of god to get you to consider other things. If you decide the sky is green, the sky is green until you tell us otherwise.


Haha your living rent free in there Adam. Not going to debate you then goes on long winded spiel anyways. First of all your not going change minds. So don't try. Give your opinion but don't expect someone to agree with you. Some will. Some won't. Being a cry baby about isn't a good look pal. I don't think Adam and I agreed about much ever in the 15 odd years I've been on this site.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817628 is a reply to message #817626 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 15:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Babaganoosh2.0 wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 14:23

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.

I am not here to get into a debate with you. I have learned my lesson and have come to the conclusion debating with you is completely pointless. You are the type of person when you have an opinion, it takes an act of god to get you to consider other things. If you decide the sky is green, the sky is green until you tell us otherwise.


Haha your living rent free in there Adam. Not going to debate you then goes on long winded spiel anyways. First of all your not going change minds. So don't try. Give your opinion but don't expect someone to agree with you. Some will. Some won't. Being a cry baby about isn't a good look pal. I don't think Adam and I agreed about much ever in the 15 odd years I've been on this site.

Thanks for the name calling. Have a great day.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817635 is a reply to message #817628 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 19:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Babaganoosh2.0  is currently offline Babaganoosh2.0
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:47

Babaganoosh2.0 wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 14:23

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.

I am not here to get into a debate with you. I have learned my lesson and have come to the conclusion debating with you is completely pointless. You are the type of person when you have an opinion, it takes an act of god to get you to consider other things. If you decide the sky is green, the sky is green until you tell us otherwise.


Haha your living rent free in there Adam. Not going to debate you then goes on long winded spiel anyways. First of all your not going change minds. So don't try. Give your opinion but don't expect someone to agree with you. Some will. Some won't. Being a cry baby about isn't a good look pal. I don't think Adam and I agreed about much ever in the 15 odd years I've been on this site.

Thanks for the name calling. Have a great day.


Dude it's cringe worthy. Must be the 20th time you have got all whiney because someone won't agree with you. Just offering some advice.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817629 is a reply to message #817624 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 15:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 14:23

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 13:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 10:35

All I will say is every year there seems to be a bunch of guys, forward and Dmen, going into their UFA year where they just explode offensively. They put up goals and points at a level they have never done before and never do after. Bottom 6 guys do it, top 6 guys do it, dmen do. Happens every year where you will see lots of guys who have been with a team for awhile, they score at a pretty consistent rate year after year, then going into UFA, they blows the doors off their career average. Get paid for it, then revert back to their normal numbers. There is always exceptions to that every year but more times than not, you see players have that 1 great year that just so happens to be around UFA time. They can resign with their team and not reproduce those numbers again.

Even the numbers you show support that. For 5 yrs, he was around the .70 pts per game. Maybe a few ticks higher or lower but at a pretty consistent level playing on the same team with similar players and lots of times same coach. Then this year he goes up to 1.1 right at UFA time. Would it shock me if next season he goes back to be around the .7-.75 range and stays in that range going forward? Nope. Does this happen to every player? No. Does it happen frequently every year, yes it does.


He didn't spike around his first contract and the biggest difference this year is his shooting percentage. Do you think that greed or laziness is likely to impact shooting percentage?

If you look at a large number of players, you can find many in the group who have their best season in their contract year and many who do not. In other sports this hypothesis has been tested many times and there's no correlation. Sometimes you just have a good season at the right time.

In baseball there HAS been a correlation found to the first year of a new deal...but that's not really the same phenomenon, and I expect that some of that is because of the change of scenery as much as anything since many of the players who get the new deal will be on a different team.

I am not here to get into a debate with you. I have learned my lesson and have come to the conclusion debating with you is completely pointless. You are the type of person when you have an opinion, it takes an act of god to get you to consider other things. If you decide the sky is green, the sky is green until you tell us otherwise.

I have not completed an in depth study looking at every free agent contact for the last 3 decades comparing their yearly production before and after they sign their first free agent contact. All I have is what I have observed and what I have observed is every single year there are players that go into their first UFA window and every single year there ends up being a bunch of players who have massive career years. Do all of them players going into their first UFA window have career years? No but a bunch of them will.

I have seen time and time again career bottom 6 guys who normally score 10 goals a year, all of a sudden flirt with 20 for 1 season, then sink back down to their normal 10 the very next year and years after. I have seen very good players all of a sudden score at a way higher clip than they have ever done before and then go back to their normal levels right after a contract. I don't know why it happens. I don't know if its just pure luck. But it happens fairly often or at least enough that when a player does it, it's not a surprise.

Horvat has 31 goals, 54 pts in 49 games. That's a 52 goal, 90 pt pace. Last year he was on pace to have his best year. 31 goals, 52 pts in 70 games. That's a 36 goal, 61 pt pace. That would be a career high in goals, tied for career high in pts. But still WAY off this years pace. Do I think next season or any year after, Horvat will be on a 50 goal, 90 pt pace? Maybe he could do it but I don't think he will do it. Would it shock me if next year he scored over 30 goals, 60 pts? No because that's what he's normally scored except this season. Why won't he produce this seasons numbers again? I have no clue but I doubt he will.

Kadri is another case. Last season he had 28 goals, 87 pts in 71 games. So a 32 goal, 100 pt season. His best ever season before that was 32 goals, 61 pts in 82 games. So on the money for goals, not even close in points. He was going into his UFA season last year. THis season. 19 goals, 38 pts in 50 games. That's a 31 goal, 62 pt pace in 82. So right on the money for his previous career best before last year and right in the range of most other seasons. But pretty far off from the 100 pt pace he was on last year. Previous seasons with the Avs, he didn't get close to those totals. What's the reasons for last year? I don't know. Avs were a good team last year but they were a good team before that and so were the Leafs. Is Calgary as good as the Avs were last year? No but is Kadri playing with good players on the Flames? Yes. Is the players Kadri is playing with and the team 40 pts personally worse than the Avs for Kadri? I have a hard time believing they are but maybe. I don't have the answer for you.

But will there be more players like Horvat shooting the lights out this year as they head to UFA? Yes there will be. Will there be next year and the year after that and so on? Yes there will be. Do I think their upcoming contract will have an impact on their season? I think so. Can I prove that they try harder in their UFA year or take more chances or whatever? No I can't but I think they do.


I, for one, always appreciate debating with you.

As pointed out by benv, this is confirmation bias at work. You believe it might be true - you've heard it said before, and so you look for cases (as above) where the fact pattern seems to bear out. If you want an extra one, Evander Kane was considered a real problem case for the San Jose Sharks, where he was on a long-term deal. He got his deal scrapped and came to the Oilers with a one-year deal and played quite well to get a new deal. Of course, that's cherry-picking high profile cases.

It's worth saying, this is showing extremely low opinion of hockey players. You're assuming the natural state of these high-performing athletes is laziness, and that it's only the incentive of greed that motivates them to do better. It's a super-weird connection, because there isn't any direct reward - they need to perform well over a significant amount of time and then they still need to wait for the reward and even then, if there's other factors like being considered an imperfect player (Tyson Barrie) or playing too much with a superstar (Patrick Maroon) you might not get that reward you turned up your effort level to achieve.

If you were going to do this as a survey, you would need to look at long-term deals (3 or more years), since for a lot of players they're never really going to fall in to anything but first or last year of their deals. If a borderline player is always on a one-year deal, then there's not really anything to compare against.

You'd also need to plot against age, because that development curve is going to play a role too. Young players will tend to get better for their first handful of years, and older players will start to diminish.

But like with the studies on baseball, I expect we'd see the same thing. Players aren't driven much by greed. Some of them have great seasons before their contracts are up, and some (Jesse Puljujarvi or Patrick Kane for instance) have dreadful years. Many of them probably just have seasons pretty similar to what they had the year before, so really, it's just chance.

Here's the list of free agent forwards from this year if anyone wants to take on this meaty challenge:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2024/caphit/a ll/forwards?stats-season=2023

Doing a single year's analysis is probably flawed of course - you probably should actually have a multi-year look, but I mean, any look is better than the simply trotting out that cliche of "well, of course he's scoring because it's a contract year."



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817630 is a reply to message #817629 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 15:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Just eyeballing the top ten off this list, you can immediately see why the case doesn't hold up.

Kane - worst season ever
Toews - worse than Kane
Tarasenko - injuries, middling performance
O'Reilly - disastrously bad season complete with injuries
van Riemsdyk - injured, middling performance
Pacioretty - awful season of injuries
Pastrnak - on fire, possibly his best season
DeBrincat - decent year, better than all but Pastrnak and Larkin in the top ten, still well off his best seasons
Monahan - okay when healthy, but lots of injury time
Larkin - on pace for his best season ever.

So out of these ten, there are two having their best years. Everyone else must just not be as greedy!



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817631 is a reply to message #817630 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 16:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:59

Just eyeballing the top ten off this list, you can immediately see why the case doesn't hold up.

Kane - worst season ever
Toews - worse than Kane
Tarasenko - injuries, middling performance
O'Reilly - disastrously bad season complete with injuries
van Riemsdyk - injured, middling performance
Pacioretty - awful season of injuries
Pastrnak - on fire, possibly his best season
DeBrincat - decent year, better than all but Pastrnak and Larkin in the top ten, still well off his best seasons
Monahan - okay when healthy, but lots of injury time
Larkin - on pace for his best season ever.

So out of these ten, there are two having their best years. Everyone else must just not be as greedy!


How many of the guys you listed are actually going into their first ever chance at UFA and who aren't broken down due to injuries?

Kane, Toews, van Riemsdyk, Pacioretty aren't. They are all 33+. They are all on going into their 4th contract or more. Kane and Toews I think were one of if not the highest paid players when their contracts kicked in in 2015.

O'Rielly is going to turn 32 tomorrow and is going to be on his 5th contract where is salary has gone up every year.

Tarasenko will be 32 next season and missed what, almost 2 full seasons due to a bad shoulder? Technically yes, this is his first chance at UFA at 31 because it took him a couple of years after draft to come over from Russia, had his 3 yr ELC, then signed signed for 8 yrs.

Monahan is 28 and this is his first chance at UFA but how many years was he severely hurt in Calgary? Like over half with hip issues and he's on LTIR again with the Habs.

Debrincat, you are correct, this is his first crack, he's healthy and not lighting it up. So there is 1.

Pastrnak and Larkin are having great season heading into UFA.

So of your list of 10, there is 1 guy that is healthy and not having a great. 2 guys having great years. 5 guys are well into their 30's and on they 4th or more contract. Then 2 guys who have spent the better part of 2 + years severely injured, one of whom is hurt again.

To be honest, I don't have the time or the patience to go through years and years of contracts and compare their seasons. So if someone what's to go ahead, that would be awesome. But like I said, while not every guy falls into this, I would like to know which players who are going into their FIRST TIME being able to be a UFA and who haven't spent massive amounts of time being injured, had amazing seasons in the season heading into UFA. I bet it's not a small number.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817632 is a reply to message #817631 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 16:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 16:33

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:59

Just eyeballing the top ten off this list, you can immediately see why the case doesn't hold up.

Kane - worst season ever
Toews - worse than Kane
Tarasenko - injuries, middling performance
O'Reilly - disastrously bad season complete with injuries
van Riemsdyk - injured, middling performance
Pacioretty - awful season of injuries
Pastrnak - on fire, possibly his best season
DeBrincat - decent year, better than all but Pastrnak and Larkin in the top ten, still well off his best seasons
Monahan - okay when healthy, but lots of injury time
Larkin - on pace for his best season ever.

So out of these ten, there are two having their best years. Everyone else must just not be as greedy!


How many of the guys you listed are actually going into their first ever chance at UFA and who aren't broken down due to injuries?

Kane, Toews, van Riemsdyk, Pacioretty aren't. They are all 33+. They are all on going into their 4th contract or more. Kane and Toews I think were one of if not the highest paid players when their contracts kicked in in 2015.

O'Rielly is going to turn 32 tomorrow and is going to be on his 5th contract where is salary has gone up every year.

Tarasenko will be 32 next season and missed what, almost 2 full seasons due to a bad shoulder? Technically yes, this is his first chance at UFA at 31 because it took him a couple of years after draft to come over from Russia, had his 3 yr ELC, then signed signed for 8 yrs.

Monahan is 28 and this is his first chance at UFA but how many years was he severely hurt in Calgary? Like over half with hip issues and he's on LTIR again with the Habs.

Debrincat, you are correct, this is his first crack, he's healthy and not lighting it up. So there is 1.

Pastrnak and Larkin are having great season heading into UFA.

So of your list of 10, there is 1 guy that is healthy and not having a great. 2 guys having great years. 5 guys are well into their 30's and on they 4th or more contract. Then 2 guys who have spent the better part of 2 + years severely injured, one of whom is hurt again.

To be honest, I don't have the time or the patience to go through years and years of contracts and compare their seasons. So if someone what's to go ahead, that would be awesome. But like I said, while not every guy falls into this, I would like to know which players who are going into their FIRST TIME being able to be a UFA and who haven't spent massive amounts of time being injured, had amazing seasons in the season heading into UFA. I bet it's not a small number.



So greed is selective to only the first UFA window? Doesn't count for RFAs or for guys who've had a shot at UFA once before? That's certainly odd - you'd think if greed was this great motivator it would drive their performance any time they had a chance to make more money...

And wouldn't that impact injuries too? I mean, if they're all focused on that dollar on the next year's contract, shouldn't they be fighting through these injuries a little more?

The premise is just so flimsy, and the evidence is sparse. You just want to cherry-pick out results and then fall back on the excuse that it's too hard to actually do the work to know, but you just assume that these guys are suddenly that much better than their peers all because of impending free agency.

If you're positing that players have their best seasons between the ages of 25-27, well, that might have some validity, but I think that's more about career development arc than greed.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817633 is a reply to message #817632 ]
Mon, 06 February 2023 17:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 16:45

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 16:33

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:59

Just eyeballing the top ten off this list, you can immediately see why the case doesn't hold up.

Kane - worst season ever
Toews - worse than Kane
Tarasenko - injuries, middling performance
O'Reilly - disastrously bad season complete with injuries
van Riemsdyk - injured, middling performance
Pacioretty - awful season of injuries
Pastrnak - on fire, possibly his best season
DeBrincat - decent year, better than all but Pastrnak and Larkin in the top ten, still well off his best seasons
Monahan - okay when healthy, but lots of injury time
Larkin - on pace for his best season ever.

So out of these ten, there are two having their best years. Everyone else must just not be as greedy!


How many of the guys you listed are actually going into their first ever chance at UFA and who aren't broken down due to injuries?

Kane, Toews, van Riemsdyk, Pacioretty aren't. They are all 33+. They are all on going into their 4th contract or more. Kane and Toews I think were one of if not the highest paid players when their contracts kicked in in 2015.

O'Rielly is going to turn 32 tomorrow and is going to be on his 5th contract where is salary has gone up every year.

Tarasenko will be 32 next season and missed what, almost 2 full seasons due to a bad shoulder? Technically yes, this is his first chance at UFA at 31 because it took him a couple of years after draft to come over from Russia, had his 3 yr ELC, then signed signed for 8 yrs.

Monahan is 28 and this is his first chance at UFA but how many years was he severely hurt in Calgary? Like over half with hip issues and he's on LTIR again with the Habs.

Debrincat, you are correct, this is his first crack, he's healthy and not lighting it up. So there is 1.

Pastrnak and Larkin are having great season heading into UFA.

So of your list of 10, there is 1 guy that is healthy and not having a great. 2 guys having great years. 5 guys are well into their 30's and on they 4th or more contract. Then 2 guys who have spent the better part of 2 + years severely injured, one of whom is hurt again.

To be honest, I don't have the time or the patience to go through years and years of contracts and compare their seasons. So if someone what's to go ahead, that would be awesome. But like I said, while not every guy falls into this, I would like to know which players who are going into their FIRST TIME being able to be a UFA and who haven't spent massive amounts of time being injured, had amazing seasons in the season heading into UFA. I bet it's not a small number.



So greed is selective to only the first UFA window? Doesn't count for RFAs or for guys who've had a shot at UFA once before? That's certainly odd - you'd think if greed was this great motivator it would drive their performance any time they had a chance to make more money...

And wouldn't that impact injuries too? I mean, if they're all focused on that dollar on the next year's contract, shouldn't they be fighting through these injuries a little more?

The premise is just so flimsy, and the evidence is sparse. You just want to cherry-pick out results and then fall back on the excuse that it's too hard to actually do the work to know, but you just assume that these guys are suddenly that much better than their peers all because of impending free agency.

If you're positing that players have their best seasons between the ages of 25-27, well, that might have some validity, but I think that's more about career development arc than greed.


I don't think there is any way that players that have a shot at a big UFA payday aren't trying extra hard that last year. More commitment in the off-season before. Wife picking up more slack because there are many millions on the table and a once in a lifetime shot that will affect the next 3+ generations of their family. Lots of factors at pay, and at the heart just more human behavior, there is no way you ignore the opportunity that has been presented. How could you forgive yourself for not doing your absolute best to set your family up for life using a once in a lifetime opportunity? Maybe it doesn't work out, maybe you end up in a dark place if things aren't going your way, but they definitely go into those years knowing exactly what is at stake, especially if they play on a crap team with no chance of playoffs. That big payday is pretty much all you have to motivate you aside from just basic competition and supporting your team.

Trying to combine those situations for players with all the noise of middling players, players that really do depend on luck to ever look good for extended periods, etc... for sure you're gonna have a hard time finding perfect stats that reveal that totally expected human behavior.

Personality plays a huge part too. Some guys are ultra-competative and will give their all no matter what, so the extra contract motivation is like trying to add an extra 1% to an already 100% effort. Some guys like Johnny though that had plans before the season starts to try to GTFO out of Calgary and cash out East, you see it play out exactly how you'd expect :) Kassian was also a master of the extra effort for us just for the payday. How we gave him 4 years mid-season to just watch him vanish the rest of the year and for the next 3, ridiculous.

If this is about Horvat though, I think he's the kind of guy that will keep bringing it. Lou loves players like him, not at all surprised he went after him and extended him for this contract. Horvat has been working his tail off to beat expectations since he was drafted with the kinds of Jr. stats that a guy projects to be a 2nd/3rd liner with. Canucks were mocked pretty hard for that pick, especially by analytics ppl.

[Updated on: Mon, 06 February 2023 18:02]


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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817656 is a reply to message #817633 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 11:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 17:50


I don't think there is any way that players that have a shot at a big UFA payday aren't trying extra hard that last year. More commitment in the off-season before. Wife picking up more slack because there are many millions on the table and a once in a lifetime shot that will affect the next 3+ generations of their family. Lots of factors at pay, and at the heart just more human behavior, there is no way you ignore the opportunity that has been presented. How could you forgive yourself for not doing your absolute best to set your family up for life using a once in a lifetime opportunity? Maybe it doesn't work out, maybe you end up in a dark place if things aren't going your way, but they definitely go into those years knowing exactly what is at stake, especially if they play on a crap team with no chance of playoffs. That big payday is pretty much all you have to motivate you aside from just basic competition and supporting your team.

Trying to combine those situations for players with all the noise of middling players, players that really do depend on luck to ever look good for extended periods, etc... for sure you're gonna have a hard time finding perfect stats that reveal that totally expected human behavior.

Personality plays a huge part too. Some guys are ultra-competative and will give their all no matter what, so the extra contract motivation is like trying to add an extra 1% to an already 100% effort. Some guys like Johnny though that had plans before the season starts to try to GTFO out of Calgary and cash out East, you see it play out exactly how you'd expect :) Kassian was also a master of the extra effort for us just for the payday. How we gave him 4 years mid-season to just watch him vanish the rest of the year and for the next 3, ridiculous.

If this is about Horvat though, I think he's the kind of guy that will keep bringing it. Lou loves players like him, not at all surprised he went after him and extended him for this contract. Horvat has been working his tail off to beat expectations since he was drafted with the kinds of Jr. stats that a guy projects to be a 2nd/3rd liner with. Canucks were mocked pretty hard for that pick, especially by analytics ppl.


As much as I was never a big fan of Kassian, even for him, I'll give him a pass on this. I just don't think he was ever good enough to be able to turn it on at will.

He played a lot of time up the lineup with McDavid ahead of his contract extension here, and I think it's safe to say it impacted his numbers. I also don't think he was lazy when he wasn't producing. I think he isn't a great hockey player, and so just has flashes, and when challenged, I think he tends to think that means he needs to do something that shows up on highlights rather than re-commit to playing a better, smarter game so he'd usually just go get in a fight, which he'd often lose and sometimes get hurt doing, which moved things in the wrong way. I think Khaira often made the same mistakes.

To be fair to them, I think for Tippett and McLellan when challenging players to make a bigger impact, they usually did mean land bigger hits or fight someone, even though those things aren't usually impactful. I'm getting off-topic though.

I think Kassian's response to getting challenged publicly puts the lie to the idea that he's just much better in a contract year. He can't be consistently better for 2 weeks when called out by his coach, but he'll just go score way more goals because it's a contract year? I think you're giving him waaaay too much credit. We'll find out next year though...assuming he doesn't get bought out of that. He's been dreadful this season - 1 assist in 34 games while going -12 for Arizona. We may have won that trade even having to give away all those draft picks...



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817682 is a reply to message #817656 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 16:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 11:36

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 17:50


I don't think there is any way that players that have a shot at a big UFA payday aren't trying extra hard that last year. More commitment in the off-season before. Wife picking up more slack because there are many millions on the table and a once in a lifetime shot that will affect the next 3+ generations of their family. Lots of factors at pay, and at the heart just more human behavior, there is no way you ignore the opportunity that has been presented. How could you forgive yourself for not doing your absolute best to set your family up for life using a once in a lifetime opportunity? Maybe it doesn't work out, maybe you end up in a dark place if things aren't going your way, but they definitely go into those years knowing exactly what is at stake, especially if they play on a crap team with no chance of playoffs. That big payday is pretty much all you have to motivate you aside from just basic competition and supporting your team.

Trying to combine those situations for players with all the noise of middling players, players that really do depend on luck to ever look good for extended periods, etc... for sure you're gonna have a hard time finding perfect stats that reveal that totally expected human behavior.

Personality plays a huge part too. Some guys are ultra-competative and will give their all no matter what, so the extra contract motivation is like trying to add an extra 1% to an already 100% effort. Some guys like Johnny though that had plans before the season starts to try to GTFO out of Calgary and cash out East, you see it play out exactly how you'd expect :) Kassian was also a master of the extra effort for us just for the payday. How we gave him 4 years mid-season to just watch him vanish the rest of the year and for the next 3, ridiculous.

If this is about Horvat though, I think he's the kind of guy that will keep bringing it. Lou loves players like him, not at all surprised he went after him and extended him for this contract. Horvat has been working his tail off to beat expectations since he was drafted with the kinds of Jr. stats that a guy projects to be a 2nd/3rd liner with. Canucks were mocked pretty hard for that pick, especially by analytics ppl.


As much as I was never a big fan of Kassian, even for him, I'll give him a pass on this. I just don't think he was ever good enough to be able to turn it on at will.

He played a lot of time up the lineup with McDavid ahead of his contract extension here, and I think it's safe to say it impacted his numbers. I also don't think he was lazy when he wasn't producing. I think he isn't a great hockey player, and so just has flashes, and when challenged, I think he tends to think that means he needs to do something that shows up on highlights rather than re-commit to playing a better, smarter game so he'd usually just go get in a fight, which he'd often lose and sometimes get hurt doing, which moved things in the wrong way. I think Khaira often made the same mistakes.

To be fair to them, I think for Tippett and McLellan when challenging players to make a bigger impact, they usually did mean land bigger hits or fight someone, even though those things aren't usually impactful. I'm getting off-topic though.

I think Kassian's response to getting challenged publicly puts the lie to the idea that he's just much better in a contract year. He can't be consistently better for 2 weeks when called out by his coach, but he'll just go score way more goals because it's a contract year? I think you're giving him waaaay too much credit. We'll find out next year though...assuming he doesn't get bought out of that. He's been dreadful this season - 1 assist in 34 games while going -12 for Arizona. We may have won that trade even having to give away all those draft picks...


I think Kassian is just broken now. That was his retirement cash in with Holland. Definitely would agree luck plays a huge part. Almost no NHL player just gets to do whatever they want out on the ice. So many things have to go right for you, even if you're McDavid. You can try to work your butt off in the summer in preparation. If you have a reputation of your effort being up and down, if you aren't doing all you can to fix that in a big contract year, then you're doing your family a real disservice.

For Kassian specifically, I still think all that craziness he chased around Tkachuk was perfectly timed along with his agent trying to get an extension with Holland. That likely did start with his good fortunes of getting some top line time and really cashing in on that opportunity. Then full psycho mode on Tkachuk to give the org and all the fans boners, beautiful payday right after. Then, meh rest of the season and beyond.

Just along this line of thinking. One other entertaining thing we did see as Oilers fans. Remember all the young boys with their performance bonuses? :) The stanley cup level celebration when they all managed to help their boy (who just completely stopped playing any defense and basically played forward for the last 2 months of the season) Jultz get his 2M bonus. Good times :)

I just mainly question the idea that players are somehow above wanting more money and bettering their families future. For sure things don't always go perfect, but the idea that they don't try to do the best they possibly can when there is a very clear immediate reward that could come for them financially, I don't think that is the case for all players. Some for sure just love the game, but loads of these guys are also there in big part for the money, like the little pink that just cashed in with his guaranteed PP time with the Canucks.

[Updated on: Tue, 07 February 2023 16:25]


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817684 is a reply to message #817682 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 16:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 16:17


I think Kassian is just broken now. That was his retirement cash in with Holland. Definitely would agree luck plays a huge part. Almost no NHL player just gets to do whatever they want out on the ice. So many things have to go right for you, even if you're McDavid. You can try to work your butt off in the summer in preparation. If you have a reputation of your effort being up and down, if you aren't doing all you can to fix that in a big contract year, then you're doing your family a real disservice.

For Kassian specifically, I still think all that craziness he chased around Tkachuk was perfectly timed along with his agent trying to get an extension with Holland. That likely did start with his good fortunes of getting some top line time and really cashing in on that opportunity. Then full psycho mode on Tkachuk to give the org and all the fans boners, beautiful payday right after. Then, meh rest of the season and beyond.

Just along this line of thinking. One other entertaining thing we did see as Oilers fans. Remember all the young boys with their performance bonuses? :) The stanley cup level celebration when they all managed to help their boy (who just completely stopped playing any defense and basically played forward for the last 2 months of the season) Jultz get his 2M bonus. Good times :)

I just mainly question the idea that players are somehow above wanting more money and bettering their families future. For sure things don't always go perfect, but the idea that they don't try to do the best they possibly can when there is a very clear immediate reward that could come for them financially, I don't think that is the case for all players. Some for sure just love the game, but loads of these guys are also there in big part for the money, like the little pink that just cashed in with his guaranteed PP time with the Canucks.


I think there's a difference though from knowing you're one goal away from a bonus and working all season hoping that you score more than usual so that you can maybe get a better contract the following summer. I will say that if you get a bonus at 20 goals and you're sitting on 18 late in the year, that probably does impact your shooting bias. But that's an easy causal relationship. Score two more goals, get $500K. It's a different beast altogether from impending free agency.

Tkachuk thing definitely helped him timing-wise, but Tkachuk also acted like a total clown around that, and had popped him in the head previously, so there was just going to be something no matter what. It just lined up well, and our GM goes entirely on ancient instinct rather than any kind of deeper dive so all he really knew was that that was kind of a fun incident and Lowe had told him that Kassian was amazing in the 2017 playoffs (even though any look at the stats show that he played a minor role at best).




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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817692 is a reply to message #817684 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 17:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 16:53

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 16:17


I think Kassian is just broken now. That was his retirement cash in with Holland. Definitely would agree luck plays a huge part. Almost no NHL player just gets to do whatever they want out on the ice. So many things have to go right for you, even if you're McDavid. You can try to work your butt off in the summer in preparation. If you have a reputation of your effort being up and down, if you aren't doing all you can to fix that in a big contract year, then you're doing your family a real disservice.

For Kassian specifically, I still think all that craziness he chased around Tkachuk was perfectly timed along with his agent trying to get an extension with Holland. That likely did start with his good fortunes of getting some top line time and really cashing in on that opportunity. Then full psycho mode on Tkachuk to give the org and all the fans boners, beautiful payday right after. Then, meh rest of the season and beyond.

Just along this line of thinking. One other entertaining thing we did see as Oilers fans. Remember all the young boys with their performance bonuses? :) The stanley cup level celebration when they all managed to help their boy (who just completely stopped playing any defense and basically played forward for the last 2 months of the season) Jultz get his 2M bonus. Good times :)

I just mainly question the idea that players are somehow above wanting more money and bettering their families future. For sure things don't always go perfect, but the idea that they don't try to do the best they possibly can when there is a very clear immediate reward that could come for them financially, I don't think that is the case for all players. Some for sure just love the game, but loads of these guys are also there in big part for the money, like the little pink that just cashed in with his guaranteed PP time with the Canucks.


I think there's a difference though from knowing you're one goal away from a bonus and working all season hoping that you score more than usual so that you can maybe get a better contract the following summer. I will say that if you get a bonus at 20 goals and you're sitting on 18 late in the year, that probably does impact your shooting bias. But that's an easy causal relationship. Score two more goals, get $500K. It's a different beast altogether from impending free agency.

Tkachuk thing definitely helped him timing-wise, but Tkachuk also acted like a total clown around that, and had popped him in the head previously, so there was just going to be something no matter what. It just lined up well, and our GM goes entirely on ancient instinct rather than any kind of deeper dive so all he really knew was that that was kind of a fun incident and Lowe had told him that Kassian was amazing in the 2017 playoffs (even though any look at the stats show that he played a minor role at best).




You don't think these guys are capable of thinking in terms of a season? Like, a guy knowing that if he manages to pull of a huge season it could mean 10M+ extra? I think Jultz was thinking about those bonuses much more than a few games too. He signed here because we promised the PP time, and he was looking for points only for large chunks of those ELC years. And for sure, Kassian was a beast in those 2017 playoffs, right before his 3 year deal. he also somehow managed to impress enough to get Sedin line time in 2014 to salvage a crap start to his career to get a decent 2 year deal with the Canucks.

I'd be interested to see how goalies do after a huge payday. That is a position where if you are taking your eye off the ball at all and feeling comfy in any way that you will really suffer. Skaters have a lot more leeway to have crappy periods or play and try to work their way back into it.

In the end though McDavid may be the only guy in the NHL that can come close to controlling his outcomes. It's very entertaining to watch him just destroy any narrative that he can't score like a madman if he wants to after everyone fawning over Matthews last year. For most everyone else, all you can do is try your best and hope stuff works out. So many factors can mess you up, team sucks, linemates suck, coach sucks, injuries, bad luck, etc... I don't think players all defy human nature though. All players are not giving 100% every single year. And all players are not above trying harder for a bigger payday or to try to be able to better pick their spot for their career and family as a UFA. Effort level goes up and down for loads of reasons, and there is no way that more money doesn't play a factor for lots of guys.

[Updated on: Tue, 07 February 2023 17:49]


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- MacT, 2015

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817695 is a reply to message #817692 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 17:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 17:41

Adam wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 16:53

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 16:17


I think Kassian is just broken now. That was his retirement cash in with Holland. Definitely would agree luck plays a huge part. Almost no NHL player just gets to do whatever they want out on the ice. So many things have to go right for you, even if you're McDavid. You can try to work your butt off in the summer in preparation. If you have a reputation of your effort being up and down, if you aren't doing all you can to fix that in a big contract year, then you're doing your family a real disservice.

For Kassian specifically, I still think all that craziness he chased around Tkachuk was perfectly timed along with his agent trying to get an extension with Holland. That likely did start with his good fortunes of getting some top line time and really cashing in on that opportunity. Then full psycho mode on Tkachuk to give the org and all the fans boners, beautiful payday right after. Then, meh rest of the season and beyond.

Just along this line of thinking. One other entertaining thing we did see as Oilers fans. Remember all the young boys with their performance bonuses? :) The stanley cup level celebration when they all managed to help their boy (who just completely stopped playing any defense and basically played forward for the last 2 months of the season) Jultz get his 2M bonus. Good times :)

I just mainly question the idea that players are somehow above wanting more money and bettering their families future. For sure things don't always go perfect, but the idea that they don't try to do the best they possibly can when there is a very clear immediate reward that could come for them financially, I don't think that is the case for all players. Some for sure just love the game, but loads of these guys are also there in big part for the money, like the little pink that just cashed in with his guaranteed PP time with the Canucks.


I think there's a difference though from knowing you're one goal away from a bonus and working all season hoping that you score more than usual so that you can maybe get a better contract the following summer. I will say that if you get a bonus at 20 goals and you're sitting on 18 late in the year, that probably does impact your shooting bias. But that's an easy causal relationship. Score two more goals, get $500K. It's a different beast altogether from impending free agency.

Tkachuk thing definitely helped him timing-wise, but Tkachuk also acted like a total clown around that, and had popped him in the head previously, so there was just going to be something no matter what. It just lined up well, and our GM goes entirely on ancient instinct rather than any kind of deeper dive so all he really knew was that that was kind of a fun incident and Lowe had told him that Kassian was amazing in the 2017 playoffs (even though any look at the stats show that he played a minor role at best).




You don't think these guys are capable of thinking in terms of a season? Like, a guy knowing that if he manages to pull of a huge season it could mean 10M+ extra? I think Jultz was thinking about those bonuses much more than a few games too. He signed here because we promised the PP time, and he was looking for points only for large chunks of those ELC years. And for sure, Kassian was a beast in those 2017 playoffs, right before his 3 year deal. he also somehow managed to impress enough to get Sedin line time in 2014 to salvage a crap start to his career to get a decent 2 year deal with the Canucks.

I'd be interested to see how goalies do after a huge payday. That is a position where if you are taking your eye off the ball at all and feeling comfy in any way that you will really suffer. Skaters have a lot more leeway to have crappy periods or play and try to work their way back into it.

In the end though McDavid may be the only guy in the NHL that can come close to controlling his outcomes. It's very entertaining to watch him just destroy any narrative that he can't score like a madman if he wants to after everyone fawning over Matthews last year. For most everyone else, all you can do is try your best and hope stuff works out. So many factors can mess you up, team sucks, linemates suck, coach sucks, injuries, bad luck, etc... I don't think players all defy human nature though. All players are not giving 100% every single year. And all players are not above trying harder for a bigger payday or to try to be able to better pick their spot for their career and family as a UFA. Effort level goes up and down for loads of reasons, and there is no way that more money doesn't play a factor for lots of guys.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817683 is a reply to message #817632 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 16:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 16:45

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 16:33

Adam wrote on Mon, 06 February 2023 15:59

Just eyeballing the top ten off this list, you can immediately see why the case doesn't hold up.

Kane - worst season ever
Toews - worse than Kane
Tarasenko - injuries, middling performance
O'Reilly - disastrously bad season complete with injuries
van Riemsdyk - injured, middling performance
Pacioretty - awful season of injuries
Pastrnak - on fire, possibly his best season
DeBrincat - decent year, better than all but Pastrnak and Larkin in the top ten, still well off his best seasons
Monahan - okay when healthy, but lots of injury time
Larkin - on pace for his best season ever.

So out of these ten, there are two having their best years. Everyone else must just not be as greedy!


How many of the guys you listed are actually going into their first ever chance at UFA and who aren't broken down due to injuries?

Kane, Toews, van Riemsdyk, Pacioretty aren't. They are all 33+. They are all on going into their 4th contract or more. Kane and Toews I think were one of if not the highest paid players when their contracts kicked in in 2015.

O'Rielly is going to turn 32 tomorrow and is going to be on his 5th contract where is salary has gone up every year.

Tarasenko will be 32 next season and missed what, almost 2 full seasons due to a bad shoulder? Technically yes, this is his first chance at UFA at 31 because it took him a couple of years after draft to come over from Russia, had his 3 yr ELC, then signed signed for 8 yrs.

Monahan is 28 and this is his first chance at UFA but how many years was he severely hurt in Calgary? Like over half with hip issues and he's on LTIR again with the Habs.

Debrincat, you are correct, this is his first crack, he's healthy and not lighting it up. So there is 1.

Pastrnak and Larkin are having great season heading into UFA.

So of your list of 10, there is 1 guy that is healthy and not having a great. 2 guys having great years. 5 guys are well into their 30's and on they 4th or more contract. Then 2 guys who have spent the better part of 2 + years severely injured, one of whom is hurt again.

To be honest, I don't have the time or the patience to go through years and years of contracts and compare their seasons. So if someone what's to go ahead, that would be awesome. But like I said, while not every guy falls into this, I would like to know which players who are going into their FIRST TIME being able to be a UFA and who haven't spent massive amounts of time being injured, had amazing seasons in the season heading into UFA. I bet it's not a small number.



So greed is selective to only the first UFA window? Doesn't count for RFAs or for guys who've had a shot at UFA once before? That's certainly odd - you'd think if greed was this great motivator it would drive their performance any time they had a chance to make more money...

And wouldn't that impact injuries too? I mean, if they're all focused on that dollar on the next year's contract, shouldn't they be fighting through these injuries a little more?

The premise is just so flimsy, and the evidence is sparse. You just want to cherry-pick out results and then fall back on the excuse that it's too hard to actually do the work to know, but you just assume that these guys are suddenly that much better than their peers all because of impending free agency.

If you're positing that players have their best seasons between the ages of 25-27, well, that might have some validity, but I think that's more about career development arc than greed.

I don't buy the idea that greed doesn't impact some of these guys more than you think it does. I think it does impact how some of these guys play. I am not saying that once they get their fat contract, they just quit trying but I do think they might not play it a touch safer once they are secure. Another indication to me that greed impacts these guys more than you think. Horvat signing. He hadn't even played a single game for the Isles. Probably been there a day or 2. Who knows if his wife has even come with him yet. But he commits to 8 yrs. WHY? Because I bet his agent told him this is as much as he can get to take it. What if he hates his teammates or the coach? He probably talked to Lou for a couple of hours, what if he hates the guy once he actually has to deal with him. Maybe the City sucks to live their. Maybe his wife hates it. The Islanders are not a young improving team, they are an old team trying to tread water. They could easily be worse next year. But he signed without knowing ANY of that. He took the money and ran. That's greed right there. So I think it impacts more than people think it does including their play.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817685 is a reply to message #817683 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 17:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 16:34


I don't buy the idea that greed doesn't impact some of these guys more than you think it does. I think it does impact how some of these guys play. I am not saying that once they get their fat contract, they just quit trying but I do think they might not play it a touch safer once they are secure. Another indication to me that greed impacts these guys more than you think. Horvat signing. He hadn't even played a single game for the Isles. Probably been there a day or 2. Who knows if his wife has even come with him yet. But he commits to 8 yrs. WHY? Because I bet his agent told him this is as much as he can get to take it. What if he hates his teammates or the coach? He probably talked to Lou for a couple of hours, what if he hates the guy once he actually has to deal with him. Maybe the City sucks to live their. Maybe his wife hates it. The Islanders are not a young improving team, they are an old team trying to tread water. They could easily be worse next year. But he signed without knowing ANY of that. He took the money and ran. That's greed right there. So I think it impacts more than people think it does including their play.


I think this is more related to risk aversion than greed. Horvat has played his whole career in one place and just got moved. He's faced with a possibility of another move in six months time. He's also offered a really substantial amount of money now that he can agree to and settle in, or he can roll the dice that he continues his hot shooting rate, that he gets the same kind of ice time and opportunities in New York that he had in Vancouver, and that his performance doesn't flag, or he doesn't have a poor playoff round. If any of those things happen, his stock could plummet and he could get far less.

This isn't greed, it's the bird in hand. He's passing up potentially more in free agency, but really, his position in Long Island is the same as it would be literally anywhere else he could go (since Vancouver isn't going to be an option). Lock it in, and just don't worry about it again. I don't think that's greed at all.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817639 is a reply to message #817631 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 08:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
AndersonRules  is currently offline AndersonRules
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So this was a very interesting conversation with competing hypotheses. Made me curious enough to do a dive into some of the research numbers. Given RD’s comments about age, I thought I would take the list of the top 50 forward free agents, regardless of RFA versus UFA status. And then I would look at their production this year compared to their career history. I am considering only free agents who are still in their 20s, to weed out those like Kane and Lucic who are at the end of their careers.

I will NOT note when players have unsustainable, shooting percentages, or have played very few games due to injury, because both of those conditions seem to me to be outside of the control of the player, such that the greed or motivation factor does not really play into it. Since Horvat has already signed his new contract, he is not on the list. But of course his shooting percentage is unsustainably high, which does call into question the sustainability of his production.

I would provide more information for each player, but I am typing with only my left hand as I recover from shoulder surgery, so this is painfully slow to begin with.

1. Pastrnak - arguably a career year this year. His best year previously was the pandemic year, when he had 95 points in 70 games. He is almost certain to exceed that this year. But it is worth noting that he has been a consistent point per game player over his entire career. This year may be his best year, but not by a huge margin. Also, he went straight from his entry level deal to a six year $40 million contract, so it’s not like he’s suffering for money to begin with. CAREER YEAR

2. DeBrincat - in the final year of a three-year $6 million contract, he is having the second worst year of his career. Ironically, his previous worst year was his last contract year in the pandemic season. So if Horvat is the poster boy for RD’s hypothesis, DeBrincat is the poster boy for Adam's thesis. POOR YEAR

3. Monahan - in the final year of his grossly overpaid seven year $6 million contract, Monahan continues to suck. His second and third years in the league were consistent, leading to the excessive contract. He sustained that production for the first three years of his new deal, but has dropped off precipitously in the last four years. His actual production this year is not terrible, but it’s not at his entry level deal level either. POOR YEAR

4. Larkin - oh this is the last year of a five-year $30 million contract, and Larkin is producing fairly well. However, his two best years were the first year and the fourth year of the current contract. This year his production is solid, and I would not call it a down year for him, but it is definitely not a career year either. HIS PRODUCTION SEEMS IN LINE WITH HIS CAREER AVERAGES. SOLID YEAR

5. Timo Meier - Meier almost fits the narrative of career year in contract year. His breakout season was the final year of his entry-level deal, which earned him his current four year $6 million contract. However, his actual best season was last year, where he was right at a point per game over the course of the season. This year, he is not far off of that mark, on a team which is probably slightly worse than last year’s. You can say, however that this year is a standard year on his production. It is almost step for step in line with how he did last year. SOLID YEAR

6. DuBois - here is a unique case, in that he has had three contracts over his six years in the league, including the current one year $6 million contract. Given RDs thesis, you would’ve expected him to have an excellent year last year, but he did not. It was solid, but not exceptional. This year, he seems to have found another level and is finally producing at a points per game. I think it is fair to call this year a career year for him. But again, it is worth noting that he has had two short contracts already in his career. CAREER YEAR

7. Drouin - in the final year of a six year $33 million contract, he continues to struggle and not produce. This year is even worse than the other five years of his contract, as he has fallen below a half point per game in production. So this is indeed a career for Drouin, but in a bad way. POOR YEAR

That wraps up the first seven of 22 free agent forwards under the age of 30. Statistically, the average current contract length for these seven top forwards was four years. On average, then, you should expect roughly 1/4 of them to have career years this year, and 1/4 of them to have the worst year of their career this year. That is roughly what we see in the results. DuBois and Pastrnak are having career years, while three of them, Drouin, Monahan, and Debrincat, are having, perhaps the worst year of their career.

If time and energy permit, I will return and look at the other 15 later today. I hope this data provides some food for further thoughts and conversation.

[Updated on: Tue, 07 February 2023 08:28]


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817645 is a reply to message #817639 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 10:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Like I said, there is always exceptions of players not having career years when they go into their UFA time. But it sure seems like when a player has a career year provided he's healthy and his whole situation doesn't get turned upside down, it a lot of times seems to happen right around new contract time.

Could be a complete coincidence, maybe it's just pure luck. It doesn't happen to every single player but in my opinion it occurs enough for me to think there is something to it.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817650 is a reply to message #817645 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 10:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 13:01

Could be a complete coincidence, maybe it's just pure luck. It doesn't happen to every single player but in my opinion it occurs enough for me to think there is something to it.


Feels to me like it does happen a lot, but after reading some of this stuff, now I'm wondering if we don't just think that because anytime it does happen (career year in a contract year) it's pointed out and talked about ad nauseum compared to those instances where the player is on par or below career averages going into UFA. confused2



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817661 is a reply to message #817650 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 12:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Mike wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 10:56

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 13:01

Could be a complete coincidence, maybe it's just pure luck. It doesn't happen to every single player but in my opinion it occurs enough for me to think there is something to it.


Feels to me like it does happen a lot, but after reading some of this stuff, now I'm wondering if we don't just think that because anytime it does happen (career year in a contract year) it's pointed out and talked about ad nauseum compared to those instances where the player is on par or below career averages going into UFA. confused2

It could be something that I perceive as happening and maybe it isn't. But when I see a player like Horvat who's a good player and puts up pretty consistent numbers, then one season has this massive year, it doesn't surprise me he was due to sign his UFA contact. Then I see him get that big number with that season influencing it because I have a hard time believing that if he was on pace to put up similar numbers to previous years which is 30 goals, 65 ish pts, he would be getting 8.5 mill.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817687 is a reply to message #817661 ]
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AndersonRules  is currently offline AndersonRules
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How do you account for the ridiculous shooting percentage this year? Is that his motivation and/or greed? Or luck? Would his scoring rates be close to his career average if his SH% was as well?


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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817693 is a reply to message #817687 ]
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PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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AndersonRules wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 18:26

How do you account for the ridiculous shooting percentage this year? Is that his motivation and/or greed? Or luck? Would his scoring rates be close to his career average if his SH% was as well?


I think this is clear, irrefutable proof that greedy increases accuracy. I heard someone say it on the radio once and have no data to back it up but I am sure it is true.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817694 is a reply to message #817687 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 17:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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AndersonRules wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 17:26

How do you account for the ridiculous shooting percentage this year? Is that his motivation and/or greed? Or luck? Would his scoring rates be close to his career average if his SH% was as well?

If anyone could figure out what causes variances in shooting percentages we'd probably be able to control them. I'm of the opinion things will either regress or Horvat is worth his new contract.

Pretty cool gamble, maybe Lou has figured it out.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817697 is a reply to message #817694 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 17:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 17:50

AndersonRules wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 17:26

How do you account for the ridiculous shooting percentage this year? Is that his motivation and/or greed? Or luck? Would his scoring rates be close to his career average if his SH% was as well?

If anyone could figure out what causes variances in shooting percentages we'd probably be able to control them. I'm of the opinion things will either regress or Horvat is worth his new contract.

Pretty cool gamble, maybe Lou has figured it out.


Did Horvat get paid like a 50 goal scorer? I think he got what you'd expect a 30 goal all situation C to get. Especially one that is a strong leader and dependable player.

Honestly don't mind that deal if he's getting 30 goals, 60+ points a year grinding everything out for the Isles. That's probably exactly what Lou has in mind.



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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817700 is a reply to message #817697 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 18:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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I mean if he scores 30 and gets close to a point per game that's not bad for a the Islanders at 8 million. It still implies Lou thinks Horvats has figured out and can stay at this level. If he goes back to 25 goals and 55 points, well, Lou is old.


Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817710 is a reply to message #817700 ]
Tue, 07 February 2023 19:49 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 07 February 2023 18:18

I mean if he scores 30 and gets close to a point per game that's not bad for a the Islanders at 8 million. It still implies Lou thinks Horvats has figured out and can stay at this level. If he goes back to 25 goals and 55 points, well, Lou is old.


He gets to be an Islander now at least. The only measure is winning. Everyone can happily be under ppg as long as the wins are coming :) That year they went to the conf finals they had 1 player over a 53 point pace. That was Barzal with a 67 point pace season.



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
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 Re: 2022-23 Regular Season OOT Thread [message #817738 is a reply to message #817710 ]
Wed, 08 February 2023 09:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NZ Oiler Fan  is currently offline NZ Oiler Fan
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Speaking of player performance vs contract, I wonder how Flames fans are feeling about their $7m/yr "defensive specialist" who's a team worst -10 and their $10.5m "offensive specialist" who is rocking a 0.68 pts/gm pace.

Meanwhile Tkachuk (barf) has 71 pts in 50 and Gaudreau is near a point per game pace on a craptacular Columbus team.

Oh well, it's not like they have them for another 7/8 years respectively lmao



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