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 Re: Review: Edmonton @ St. Louis (Game #37) [message #749912 is a reply to message #749911 ]
Thu, 19 December 2019 12:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:15

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:00

Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 11:27

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 10:50

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 10:49


Tavares is a great example of what happens with a superstar player on a backwards franchise once free agency comes. ;)


And the Islanders are a great example of a team that kept thinking 1 more player would solve all their problems that exist all over their lineup instead of actually trying to build something.


I think Tavares is a better example of the dangers of doing nothing. What big trades did they make there? The Smyth deal pre-dated Tavares.

Tavares made the playoffs only three times in nine years with the Islanders. Here were their in-season deals in those years:

2012-13: Acquired Tim Thomas for conditional 2nd round pick at trade deadline
2014-15: Acquired Leddy & Boychuck on Oct 4th for 4 nothing prospects & three picks that turned in to nothing. Acquired Michal Neuvirth for Chad Johnson & pick at deadline. Acquired Tyler Kennedy for 3rd round pick. Some other minor league moves.
2015-16: Traded Beck for Cliche at the deadling. Also picked up Shane Prince for a pick.

http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_team/New_Y ork_Islanders/1

In a couple other years, they picked up players like Andy MacDonald at the deadline, but they weren't overly active mid-season for Tavares' whole career. The only year that they did not have a 1st round pick in Tavares' entire time with the team was 2017 - just before his final season there and that was given up to the Golden Knights so they could pick who went in the expansion draft.

If anything, I think looking at the trade record of the Islanders suggests they didn't do enough to make sure that they had a consistently good team around Tavares - and as a result he felt like his first decade in the NHL was pretty much wasted.

It would be even worse to have McDavid and Draisaitl and not make the playoffs more consistently than that, but the Oilers make anything (bad) possible.



Why exclude 13/14? That was their big Vanek splash. ANd Vanek almost gave them PPG for 50 games. They still sucked though. That's a pretty good comparable to getting Hall right now IMO.

14/15 they tried to go balls out too, failed. Finally Snow decided to focus on drafting and building a little, and Lou gets to enjoy the rewards :) And JT bailed with bad timing, hehe. Although, the heart of their rebuild was taking advantage of Chia, so I guess it's not actually that impressive.


Vanek was good with the Islanders - probably full value on the trade. Hard to suggest that had anything to do with them missing the playoffs. They did give up a 1st rounder, but it was 21st overall and only ever became Colin White.

There is some similarities there, because they also had terrible goaltending that year. Best netminder was .905. Turns out that goalies are important. Injuries played a role too. Tavares missed a quarter of the season. Visnovsky missed almost 60 games.

The trades in 2014-15 are all good for their team too - whether they had success in the playoffs of not, they got two defencemen who've been really good for the Islanders for a lot of years for a whole lot of nothing. There's nothing there that suggests any of those trades were a mistake that's cost the team...if anything, they weren't bold enough when they had chances - well, that and they failed to realize they needed a good goalie. Ironic, since they had a bad goalie as their GM!

So is it safe for me to assume that in your eyes, the Oilers needed to get Hall at all cost and there is no other player worth getting?

[Updated on: Thu, 19 December 2019 12:26]


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 Re: Review: Edmonton @ St. Louis (Game #37) [message #749914 is a reply to message #749912 ]
Thu, 19 December 2019 12:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:21


So is it safe for me to assume that in your eyes, they Oilers needed to get Hall at all cost and there is no other player worth getting?


Hall is gone. That ship has sailed.

I don't think there's anyone else available who could make as much impact on our season, and I fear that Holland is going to react - but late - and we spend almost as much getting Pageau (who's bound to disappoint based on the fact he's playing way above his norm this season) as we would have had to give up to get Hall.

I would not have targeted Hall "at all cost", because there were a lot of pieces that I wouldn't give up. This year's first round pick I would have been willing to sacrifice, as well as any number of B- and C-Level prospects. I'd have even been fine with the conditional pick that the Coyotes gave up.

I see the next few years as being of paramount importance - this is the PRIME of Connor McDavid's career, and our best shot at winning Stanley Cups, so anyone who's not likely to play a major role in the next few seasons for the Edmonton Oilers should be at least available in a trade. For this year's first rounder - if we make the playoffs, that's a late teens pick at highest. That pick is likely to turn in to a depth player only, and even then not for 3-5 years. Yes - there's cases where late teens picks turn out to be superstars (like Matthew Barzal!) but we're playing the odds here and we have to focus on giving us the best chance to win soon.

Now that Hall's gone, there's very little in the UFA-to-be bucket that I'd give that pick up for, and I think it's unlikely that another player with enough impact to trade it for becomes available. I don't think Pageau moves the needle much, so I'm sure not giving up a first rounder for him.

If I'm Holland though - I am looking for help soon - not at the deadline. If I'm going to make a play for Pageau, I'm convincing Ottawa that it's in both our interests to make a deal earlier - it'll help them sink their season and get a better pick and it'll help us improve our roster faster - oh, and we need them to keep salary and take back Manning too - he'll also help them lose.

I'm also targeting a goalie ASAP. Mike Smith, I'm sending to the AHL if there's even a slight opening to upgrade at backup (especially for someone cheap).



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 Re: Review: Edmonton @ St. Louis (Game #37) [message #749916 is a reply to message #749914 ]
Thu, 19 December 2019 12:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:21


So is it safe for me to assume that in your eyes, they Oilers needed to get Hall at all cost and there is no other player worth getting?


Hall is gone. That ship has sailed.

I don't think there's anyone else available who could make as much impact on our season, and I fear that Holland is going to react - but late - and we spend almost as much getting Pageau (who's bound to disappoint based on the fact he's playing way above his norm this season) as we would have had to give up to get Hall.

I would not have targeted Hall "at all cost", because there were a lot of pieces that I wouldn't give up. This year's first round pick I would have been willing to sacrifice, as well as any number of B- and C-Level prospects. I'd have even been fine with the conditional pick that the Coyotes gave up.

I see the next few years as being of paramount importance - this is the PRIME of Connor McDavid's career, and our best shot at winning Stanley Cups, so anyone who's not likely to play a major role in the next few seasons for the Edmonton Oilers should be at least available in a trade. For this year's first rounder - if we make the playoffs, that's a late teens pick at highest. That pick is likely to turn in to a depth player only, and even then not for 3-5 years. Yes - there's cases where late teens picks turn out to be superstars (like Matthew Barzal!) but we're playing the odds here and we have to focus on giving us the best chance to win soon.

Now that Hall's gone, there's very little in the UFA-to-be bucket that I'd give that pick up for, and I think it's unlikely that another player with enough impact to trade it for becomes available. I don't think Pageau moves the needle much, so I'm sure not giving up a first rounder for him.

If I'm Holland though - I am looking for help soon - not at the deadline. If I'm going to make a play for Pageau, I'm convincing Ottawa that it's in both our interests to make a deal earlier - it'll help them sink their season and get a better pick and it'll help us improve our roster faster - oh, and we need them to keep salary and take back Manning too - he'll also help them lose.

I'm also targeting a goalie ASAP. Mike Smith, I'm sending to the AHL if there's even a slight opening to upgrade at backup (especially for someone cheap).

Would you give up a first or some other package to say get an Athanasiou? Having a down year on a really bad team. Scored 30 last, year, the previous 2 seasons was a 20 goal guy. Only 25, entering his prime years. Skates like the wind. He's an RFA, not a UFA like Hall. So you'd have his rights no matter what. He'd immediately be a top 6 player and you could probably resign him for at minimum HALF of what Hall could get on the open market.

Would he be as potentially impactful as Hall? Probably not but he'd be an upgrade on a lot of wingers they have now and I would be a lot more comfortable signing a 25 yr old than a 29 yr old with a massive injury history.



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 Re: Review: Edmonton @ St. Louis (Game #37) [message #749917 is a reply to message #749916 ]
Thu, 19 December 2019 12:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:37

Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:21


So is it safe for me to assume that in your eyes, they Oilers needed to get Hall at all cost and there is no other player worth getting?


Hall is gone. That ship has sailed.

I don't think there's anyone else available who could make as much impact on our season, and I fear that Holland is going to react - but late - and we spend almost as much getting Pageau (who's bound to disappoint based on the fact he's playing way above his norm this season) as we would have had to give up to get Hall.

I would not have targeted Hall "at all cost", because there were a lot of pieces that I wouldn't give up. This year's first round pick I would have been willing to sacrifice, as well as any number of B- and C-Level prospects. I'd have even been fine with the conditional pick that the Coyotes gave up.

I see the next few years as being of paramount importance - this is the PRIME of Connor McDavid's career, and our best shot at winning Stanley Cups, so anyone who's not likely to play a major role in the next few seasons for the Edmonton Oilers should be at least available in a trade. For this year's first rounder - if we make the playoffs, that's a late teens pick at highest. That pick is likely to turn in to a depth player only, and even then not for 3-5 years. Yes - there's cases where late teens picks turn out to be superstars (like Matthew Barzal!) but we're playing the odds here and we have to focus on giving us the best chance to win soon.

Now that Hall's gone, there's very little in the UFA-to-be bucket that I'd give that pick up for, and I think it's unlikely that another player with enough impact to trade it for becomes available. I don't think Pageau moves the needle much, so I'm sure not giving up a first rounder for him.

If I'm Holland though - I am looking for help soon - not at the deadline. If I'm going to make a play for Pageau, I'm convincing Ottawa that it's in both our interests to make a deal earlier - it'll help them sink their season and get a better pick and it'll help us improve our roster faster - oh, and we need them to keep salary and take back Manning too - he'll also help them lose.

I'm also targeting a goalie ASAP. Mike Smith, I'm sending to the AHL if there's even a slight opening to upgrade at backup (especially for someone cheap).

Would you give up a first or some other package to say get an Athanasiou? Having a down year on a really bad team. Scored 30 last, year, the previous 2 seasons was a 20 goal guy. Only 25, entering his prime years. Skates like the wind. He's an RFA, not a UFA like Hall. So you'd have his rights no matter what. He'd immediately be a top 6 player and you could probably resign him for at minimum HALF of what Hall could get on the open market.

Would he be as potentially impactful as Hall? Probably not but he'd be an upgrade on a lot of wingers they have now and I would be a lot more comfortable signing a 25 yr old than a 29 yr old with a massive injury history.



Not a first. His career high is 54 points, but he's like Ryan Strome - one great year surrounded by 30ish point seasons every other season? That's most likely a 30 point player.

He's an upgrade on our depth, so yes - I'd take him on the team. But no chance would I spend a first on him. I wouldn't give up nearly as much for him, even as an RFA-to-be, as I would have for Hall.

2nd rounder and a prospect, plus something to even out salaries. That's about it.



"This team needs an enema!"
#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan #FireBobbyNicks and...SIGH...#FireTheGretzkys

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 Re: Review: Edmonton @ St. Louis (Game #37) [message #749920 is a reply to message #749917 ]
Thu, 19 December 2019 13:10 Go to previous message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:53

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:37

Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:21


So is it safe for me to assume that in your eyes, they Oilers needed to get Hall at all cost and there is no other player worth getting?


Hall is gone. That ship has sailed.

I don't think there's anyone else available who could make as much impact on our season, and I fear that Holland is going to react - but late - and we spend almost as much getting Pageau (who's bound to disappoint based on the fact he's playing way above his norm this season) as we would have had to give up to get Hall.

I would not have targeted Hall "at all cost", because there were a lot of pieces that I wouldn't give up. This year's first round pick I would have been willing to sacrifice, as well as any number of B- and C-Level prospects. I'd have even been fine with the conditional pick that the Coyotes gave up.

I see the next few years as being of paramount importance - this is the PRIME of Connor McDavid's career, and our best shot at winning Stanley Cups, so anyone who's not likely to play a major role in the next few seasons for the Edmonton Oilers should be at least available in a trade. For this year's first rounder - if we make the playoffs, that's a late teens pick at highest. That pick is likely to turn in to a depth player only, and even then not for 3-5 years. Yes - there's cases where late teens picks turn out to be superstars (like Matthew Barzal!) but we're playing the odds here and we have to focus on giving us the best chance to win soon.

Now that Hall's gone, there's very little in the UFA-to-be bucket that I'd give that pick up for, and I think it's unlikely that another player with enough impact to trade it for becomes available. I don't think Pageau moves the needle much, so I'm sure not giving up a first rounder for him.

If I'm Holland though - I am looking for help soon - not at the deadline. If I'm going to make a play for Pageau, I'm convincing Ottawa that it's in both our interests to make a deal earlier - it'll help them sink their season and get a better pick and it'll help us improve our roster faster - oh, and we need them to keep salary and take back Manning too - he'll also help them lose.

I'm also targeting a goalie ASAP. Mike Smith, I'm sending to the AHL if there's even a slight opening to upgrade at backup (especially for someone cheap).

Would you give up a first or some other package to say get an Athanasiou? Having a down year on a really bad team. Scored 30 last, year, the previous 2 seasons was a 20 goal guy. Only 25, entering his prime years. Skates like the wind. He's an RFA, not a UFA like Hall. So you'd have his rights no matter what. He'd immediately be a top 6 player and you could probably resign him for at minimum HALF of what Hall could get on the open market.

Would he be as potentially impactful as Hall? Probably not but he'd be an upgrade on a lot of wingers they have now and I would be a lot more comfortable signing a 25 yr old than a 29 yr old with a massive injury history.



Not a first. His career high is 54 points, but he's like Ryan Strome - one great year surrounded by 30ish point seasons every other season? That's most likely a 30 point player.

He's an upgrade on our depth, so yes - I'd take him on the team. But no chance would I spend a first on him. I wouldn't give up nearly as much for him, even as an RFA-to-be, as I would have for Hall.

2nd rounder and a prospect, plus something to even out salaries. That's about it.

I don't disagree. A first would be a lot to give up. I would love to give up JP and something else to get him. I want the team to get better. I recognize the need to improve while Connor has not even moved into his prime yet. I just don't see how it's smart to be trading off a first to get a player like a Hall who in all likelihood will go as a free agent. The trade will no doubt help Arizona make the playoffs but I don't see them beating the Avs or even St. Louis. Their centers are weak compared to those teams. I think they paid a heavy price all to get Hall so they can maybe win a round.

I would much rather the Oilers use assets to build up the team, hopefully make the playoffs. Then in the offseason if you can make it work, go get Hall if you think he is the icing on the cake. I don't think the Oilers team right now even if they had Hall is deep enough to win.



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 Re: Review: Edmonton @ St. Louis (Game #37) [message #749913 is a reply to message #749911 ]
Thu, 19 December 2019 12:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:15

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 12:00

Adam wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 11:27

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 10:50

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 19 December 2019 10:49


Tavares is a great example of what happens with a superstar player on a backwards franchise once free agency comes. ;)


And the Islanders are a great example of a team that kept thinking 1 more player would solve all their problems that exist all over their lineup instead of actually trying to build something.


I think Tavares is a better example of the dangers of doing nothing. What big trades did they make there? The Smyth deal pre-dated Tavares.

Tavares made the playoffs only three times in nine years with the Islanders. Here were their in-season deals in those years:

2012-13: Acquired Tim Thomas for conditional 2nd round pick at trade deadline
2014-15: Acquired Leddy & Boychuck on Oct 4th for 4 nothing prospects & three picks that turned in to nothing. Acquired Michal Neuvirth for Chad Johnson & pick at deadline. Acquired Tyler Kennedy for 3rd round pick. Some other minor league moves.
2015-16: Traded Beck for Cliche at the deadling. Also picked up Shane Prince for a pick.

http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_team/New_Y ork_Islanders/1

In a couple other years, they picked up players like Andy MacDonald at the deadline, but they weren't overly active mid-season for Tavares' whole career. The only year that they did not have a 1st round pick in Tavares' entire time with the team was 2017 - just before his final season there and that was given up to the Golden Knights so they could pick who went in the expansion draft.

If anything, I think looking at the trade record of the Islanders suggests they didn't do enough to make sure that they had a consistently good team around Tavares - and as a result he felt like his first decade in the NHL was pretty much wasted.

It would be even worse to have McDavid and Draisaitl and not make the playoffs more consistently than that, but the Oilers make anything (bad) possible.



Why exclude 13/14? That was their big Vanek splash. ANd Vanek almost gave them PPG for 50 games. They still sucked though. That's a pretty good comparable to getting Hall right now IMO.

14/15 they tried to go balls out too, failed. Finally Snow decided to focus on drafting and building a little, and Lou gets to enjoy the rewards :) And JT bailed with bad timing, hehe. Although, the heart of their rebuild was taking advantage of Chia, so I guess it's not actually that impressive.


Vanek was good with the Islanders - probably full value on the trade. Hard to suggest that had anything to do with them missing the playoffs. They did give up a 1st rounder, but it was 21st overall and only ever became Colin White.

There is some similarities there, because they also had terrible goaltending that year. Best netminder was .905. Turns out that goalies are important. Injuries played a role too. Tavares missed a quarter of the season. Visnovsky missed almost 60 games.

The trades in 2014-15 are all good for their team too - whether they had success in the playoffs of not, they got two defencemen who've been really good for the Islanders for a lot of years for a whole lot of nothing. There's nothing there that suggests any of those trades were a mistake that's cost the team...if anything, they weren't bold enough when they had chances - well, that and they failed to realize they needed a good goalie. Ironic, since they had a bad goalie as their GM!


And now they are actually a good team after years of trying to piece stuff together to be a barely playoff team with guys on the end of their usefulness and guys that need to be overpaid, and this year 7 of their top 8 point getters are their own draft picks.

I can appreciate boldness. But in the end, most good teams are created with good drafting. Maybe the odd trade here and there with good timing, or you fluke out and get a UFA that doesn't just totally fall off the map. BUt, almost always a contender is full of home grown good players. We have to do that one of these days, and then maybe it's time to add a Kessel or a Hall in a big trade. Hall isn't gonna make our bottom 2 lines of useless become useful. They already play the easiest possible minutes against the worst possible players with completely fresh legs every night, and they get pumped almost every game. Hall won't fix our goaltending. Hall won't fix our lack of offense on the back end. And good luck fixing those things this deadline if you've already tied up your 1st round picks for 2020 and 2021 with conditions to get Hall not to mention zero cap space. And your 2nd and 3rd in 2021 I guess would be tied up in the Hall trade, and our 3rd this year is tied up with the Lucic trade, so you basically have your 2020 2nd, and 2022 picks and the prospects left to somehow fix everything else with the team while clearing cap space.

I'm still game for trying to get Hall this summer though, just to note :) Just hate the idea of giving up loads of assets for him for this season. The assets we would give up now, could be used to clean a lot of this lineup up to actually make room to add Hall and still be able to have useful players. Sorry to be a quitter on the 19/20 season. I just don't see it, I don't see Hall moving the needle that much for this group. And I suppose before going for him this summer, I would also need to see Hall get back to his old 5v5 ways, rather than the guy that depends on the PP to score that he's been lately.

[Updated on: Thu, 19 December 2019 13:06]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
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