| Is Darnell Nurse Good or Bad at Hockey? [message #717292] |
Mon, 30 July 2018 10:23  |
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 Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff
3 Cups
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Hello Friends and fellow Masochists!
We've been discussing what the Nurse contract should be over the past month or so, and I'm thinking, we should also discuss whether or not Nurse is good at hockey.
My bar for being good at hockey for Nurse is as follows: Being an average 4th d-man in the league.
This consists of the following characteristics:
1. Be in the top 115 among defenders in Corsi in at least one of the past two years.
2. Have positive WoWys with more than half the players he's on the ice with.
3. Be top 115 among defenders in points in at least one of the past two years.
4. Have good stats, while also having difficult zone starts.
Any other measures we should include?
2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!
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overdue
Messages: 885
Registered: October 2014
No Cups
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He's still a work in progress as far as I'm concerned and is young enough to still be on the upswing in his develoment. I wouldn't put too much stock in his failures in the stats department just yet. Last year was a bad year for the whole team defensively / offensively/ goaltending wise/ and every other way. The oilers would be fools to think otherwise and should keep bringing him along because when he gets there his value will be unquestioned. That's my take anyway. Am guessing that his agent is making his signing difficult. Defense men usually take longer in their development and that's ok.
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nullterm
Messages: 5815
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC
5 Cups
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He’s still raw, and mistakes by a young dman are magnified by the position given they carry alot of responsibility. And dmen typically take a longer time to mature given the weight of the position given they have to learn sink or swim against the best players.
My feeling is that Nurse will be at worst a second pair guy, but I suspect he’ll be a top pairing guy. He has all the physical tools you can dream for, he just needs time to develop the mental maturity and experience of what the smart play is.
Illegitimi non carborundum.
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Adam
Messages: 17997
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| overdue wrote on Mon, 30 July 2018 10:56 |
He's still a work in progress as far as I'm concerned and is young enough to still be on the upswing in his develoment. I wouldn't put too much stock in his failures in the stats department just yet. Last year was a bad year for the whole team defensively / offensively/ goaltending wise/ and every other way. The oilers would be fools to think otherwise and should keep bringing him along because when he gets there his value will be unquestioned. That's my take anyway. Am guessing that his agent is making his signing difficult. Defense men usually take longer in their development and that's ok.
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I am not at all bothered by an agent trying to get the best deal for his client. That's his job. It's the job of the Oilers management to convince Nurse and his representative that less money is fair or that he should take less money to help them be successful - although they have made it very hard to convince anyone of this, since they have had a habit of over-paying. It makes it hard to be the guy to sacrifice for the team when one guy you're going to be playing ahead of on the left side is making $4MM per year for the next three years with a no-move clause.
I don't believe that Nurse is ever going to demonstrate "Norris Trophy potential", but that doesn't mean he isn't a useful player. He's young, he's improving, he's played on almost only bad teams so far, which makes him harder to judge on advanced stats unless you're looking at it on a relative basis. Shots for and against are team-stats, because you can only impact so much when you're on the ice. There's a certain amount of plays that happen with no relation to your play.
I think Nurse has great skating ability, but his passing needs improvement and his shot is not very good. His choice on shots is also poor - shooting often from long-range with no traffic in front, but some of that I believe is on coaching, which seemed to want the d-men to waste those shots last year on some wing-and-a-prayer hope that they'd eventually get a small percentage to go it. He's strong, he's got a bit of a mean streak, and he's improving at his positional play and hockey smarts.
I think he's a top 4 on half the teams in the league right now, and that almost every GM would count on him to become a top-4 guy eventually at minimum.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett
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NetBOG
Messages: 4452
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown
4 Cups
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I'm not sure why we are even discussing this.
He was 2nd on the team in TOI/60
He was 1st on the team in SH TOI/60
He was almost last in PP TOI/60
He was 35th in the league in ES scoring by defencemen
He was 2nd on the team at +15
He had a massive jump in productivity last year. He's still only 23, he's got at least 2 more years before he begins to hit his peak. He seems to have the defensive part of the game figured out, but is still working on offence. That being said, he was much better last year.
I think it hurts him to be behind Klefbom and Sekera who are both left-handed. It hurts his chances to be on the PP, and can create an awkward situation where he ends up on the 3rd pairing sometimes.
If he gets the 6-8 year, $5 million per year contract, I think thats fair.
[Updated on: Mon, 30 July 2018 22:30]
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Gator21
Messages: 712
Registered: February 2016
Location: Kelowna, BC
No Cups
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Hmmmm....well he plays in the National Hockey League so my vote would be good 
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Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff
3 Cups
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So did Steve McIntyre.
2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!
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Kr55
Messages: 21869
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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Saw this on twtiter. A comparison of Oilers D using some proprietary stats (zone entries, exists, defense of entries being the ones a typical fan can't readily get their hands on).
Keep in mind, these are percentiles for the player in each category, so being high for something like allowing entries is actually good, means you allowed less than most guys. Data is not accounting for competition and teammate quality just to note.
God...Russell. Bad by almost every measure. Horrible at preventing zone entries with possession. Of course we all know that, guy just backs up and looks for a chance to block a shot.
And Nurse looking pretty good in terms of getting things going offensively. Average in terms of defending.
Poor Sek didn't have the legs to do anything on the offensive side of the red line. Should see an improvement from him next year.
[Updated on: Wed, 01 August 2018 12:44]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
"In Brad we trust"
- All Oilers fans, Present Day
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ziltoid
Messages: 425
Registered: January 2011
No Cups
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| Kr55 wrote on Wed, 01 August 2018 12:38 |
Saw this on twtiter. A comparison of Oilers D using some proprietary stats (zone entries, exists, defense of entries being the ones a typical fan can't readily get their hands on).
Keep in mind, these are percentiles for the player in each category, so being high for something like allowing entries is actually good, means you allowed less than most guys. Data is not accounting for competition and teammate quality just to note.
God...Russell. Bad by almost every measure. Horrible at preventing zone entries with possession. Of course we all know that, guy just backs up and looks for a chance to block a shot.
And Nurse looking pretty good in terms of getting things going offensively. Average in terms of defending.
Poor Sek didn't have the legs to do anything on the offensive side of the red line. Should see an improvement from him next year.
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| Quote: |
God...Russell. Bad by almost every measure. Horrible at preventing zone entries with possession. Of course we all know that, guy just backs up and looks for a chance to block a shot.
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Three more years! Three more years!
I'd love to see a league-wide comparison before I pass judgement (I am guessing these numbers are Oilers specific), but I'm liking those numbers from Nurse.
Nurse - Larsson
Klef - Benning
Sekera - Russell
Is how I'd come out on opening night barring a trade/signing/injury. Nurse and Benning are playing up from where they should be (2LD and 3RD), and that third pairing in a giant money pit that has the potential to be set ablaze of Sekera doesn't bounce back. But it is certainly not the worse d-corp we have iced in recent years.
Overall, I'm hesitant to move Nurse and would want until the deadline to gather more data points. Suspect Klefbom is the vulnerable one in the group (maybe Benning too, but he is a PC hire, so there's that bias), though I suspect moving him would result in another PC special at 50 cents on the dollar (Klefbom for a 3RW, Sekera would slide up, Russel to the left side, and Bear/Bouchard taking the 3RD spot).
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Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff
3 Cups
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Agree on waiting for league wide.
Nice chart all the same.
It does point out that the Oilers would be worse off with Nurse, which is scary.
Klef is better than I thought according to these metrics.
2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!
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Kr55
Messages: 21869
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| Magnum wrote on Thu, 02 August 2018 08:20 |
Agree on waiting for league wide.
Nice chart all the same.
It does point out that the Oilers would be worse off with Nurse, which is scary.
Klef is better than I thought according to these metrics.
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Found the tool these were made from, public for all with all the players (D and forwards) for the last 2 seasons.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/christopher.turtoro#!/viz home/2-yearA3ZPlayerComps/ComparisonDashboard
Check out McDavid.
[Updated on: Thu, 02 August 2018 08:24]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
"In Brad we trust"
- All Oilers fans, Present Day
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Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff
3 Cups
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Thanks, now my work productivity just went the way of the Oilers success.
Wow, he even owns Ovie and Crosby.
[Updated on: Thu, 02 August 2018 08:26]
2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!
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