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Oilers » Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)

Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79) [message #820672 is a reply to message #820665 ]	Thu, 06 April 2023 10:00

RDOilerfan
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Registered: January 2016

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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 06 April 2023 08:08

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 April 2023 13:13

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 05 April 2023 12:56

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 05 April 2023 11:50

I have heard it mentioned when it comes to Nurse's contract and I agree with it. The Oilers rightly or wrongly kicked his contract down the road and bridged him twice. His last one was 2 yrs at 5.6 mill. He grossly outperformed his contracts each year. I find it funny that prior to signing his 5.6 yr deal, there was a rumor he was looking for around 7 on a max term people which many fans lost their absolute minds over. That would have been a fantastic contract. But instead the Oilers kicked the contract down the road once again and normally when you do that, it bites you in the ass because all the money you didn't give him before by bridging him, most of it generally gets paid back. I haven't bothered to look but I can't think of too many times where the team bridged a really good player multiple times and then once it came time to go long term, the money on the long term was team friendly.

I think it was a perfect storm for Nurse and I have heard this mentioned by some media. When Holland took over the team, he thought he had 3 out of 4 of his long term, top 4 dmen in place. Nurse, Klef, Larsson. Klef was signed up until this year on a cheap deal. Nurse was going to come. Larsson was signed. So get 1 more dmen which is doable and you are set as you cruise into McD and Leon's best years. What happens:
Klef gets hurt and is done from hockey forever at 26. He hasn't played a game since the 19-20 season. So you lose a very good, top 4 dmen signed for cheap going into his prime years at 26 just like than.

Larsson's who already lost one of his best friends from the team with Klef being gone, has his dad come over to visit, dies of a sudden massive heart attack in Edmonton. He finished his deal, was going to resign but then decides not to resign because he and his family, especially his mother find it too painful of a memory to be in Edmonton. So boom, you lose 2 top 4 dmem just like that.

Nurses is finally out of bridge options. You deferred money to him twice. There is a massive, short term spike in the Dmen market. He had a great year in the weird bubble hockey year where he was able to rack up points against a bad Ottawa team and a few others. You literally have no leverage now since you just lost 2 top 4 dmen and you can't lose a 3rd. So he gets paid. I would put money down if Klef was still here, Larsson would probably still be here and Nurse's contract would be a lot less because they wouldn't have been as desperate to keep him.

Can't change the past but its nice to see Nurse doing so well and the team poised to go on a big run I hope.

It is definitely interesting that we bridged Nurse 2 times. I feel like this org has been in love with him from day 1, and there was never even a hint of the idea we would move him. He has been tight with McDrai this entire time and has been a core leader, but we kept bridging him.

Actually, half of that is not at all a mystery, we mismanaged our cap so badly that we had no choice but to bridge him the 2nd time. We paid for that dearly, and even helped Chicago destroy the D market right before we finally worked on Nurse's deal. I really hope we've learned. I think Bouch is the next test of this. He doesn't have the org wide love that Nurse had from the start, but I think Bouch is going to get very very expensive in 2-3 years if we bridge him.

I will be very interested to see what Bouchard would want. I view him as a Dman who's great at puck moving, can produce offence but defensively I believe will be average at best. So what is that worth on a long term deal? Could I see him scoring 60 pts next year with him being on the Oilers PP. I see him as a better Barrie. So what is that worth?

I don't care what some peoples manipulated numbers say about him defensively. I watch the games. I see the mistakes, I see him getting out battled in the corners, I see the soft plays along the walls, I see him pull up and he let's the guy win a puck race so he doesn't have to get contact, I see the lack of awareness on what I deem as dman basics like head checking, tying up guys, lifting sticks. Then we see how much his game takes off when he is with a vet dman who knows how to defend and is on the ice with him telling him what to do every single shift. If he was so good defensively, the change in his game just because he has a different partner wouldn't be so severe. Then I look at the numbers and I recognize this stat isn't perfect but:
Nurse+ 21 a guy that plays virtually exclusively against other teams best players
Ceci+ 8, as rough of a season as he's had, he' still +8 playing against every teams best.
Ekholm +18
Kulak + 14
Deharnais +14
Bouchard 0

Something wrong with that if he's even decent defensively when everyone else is WAY about zero and you aren't.

So what do you pay an offensive dman who needs a really good partner to prop him up in order for him to from the offensive blueline back, be passable defensively. I think on a 2-3 yr deal, what Dobson got so 4 mill per is fair. On a 5-6 yr deal I think 6.5 is fair.

I was hoping for something around 6M long term as well.

And just some context for Bouch's season. He had a bad start for sure. His lack of McDavid time, having a partner struggling as bad or worse and just being the lucky guy on the ice when goalies were letting in pretty much every good chance (especially Campbell as we recall), did tank his +/-. I'm actually surprised he managed to get back to even. He seemed to be getting a minus a night, in many cases his crime was just sharing the ice with a goalie that can't make a save.

His 2023 has been good though, even before Ekholm. The entire team started to play better of course, for whatever reason, maybe seeing they were out of the playoffs and suddenly the group decided to try some stuff that worked for them last year. Bouch just had a much bigger +/- hole to dig out of than most others.

Here is our D 5v5 2023 though:

Best xGF on the team in the new year. He makes mistakes for sure, but he's making good plays all night long in his end and the neutral zone with the puck. I've personally been surprised at his creativity making plays in the last couple months. It's stuff that I guess not everyone appreciates, especially people that are looking for 1 mistake to rant about, but he's making plays all night that not many D on our team can do. IMO we need to lock this guy up. Once he gets really comfortable on the PP, especially on our PP where the goals are constantly flowing, he could be a 9m+ guy as UFA, especially if the cap starts moving up again.

I guess maybe we see the game differently. I appreciate that his advanced stats look good but where I differ is your comment about being a person looking for 1 mistake to rant about.

When the Oilers are playing a team like the Kings and it's a 1-0 or 2-1 game either late in the regular season or what looks like a possible first round match up. While I absolutely love his outlet passing and offensive instincts and think they are very valuable. When he forgets to shoulder check to pick up the open man that's standing in the slot or he decides to take an ill advised, low percentage pinch that causes a breakaway or 2 on 1 or he is in a foot race for a loose puck but pulls up right before the corner to avoid contact to let the other guy get the puck and those things result in a goal. That 1 mistake that I am ranting about, are kind of big freaking deals in tight games in the playoffs and at least for me, kind of negate the really nice outlet pass he did a shift or 2 before.

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Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: OilFans on Wed, 05 April 2023 02:00
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: tardigrade81 on Wed, 05 April 2023 09:18
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 05 April 2023 09:37
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Adam on Wed, 05 April 2023 09:40
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: NZ Oiler Fan on Wed, 05 April 2023 10:02
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: clutchlikeeberle on Wed, 05 April 2023 10:55
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 05 April 2023 11:02
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Kr55 on Wed, 05 April 2023 11:15
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 05 April 2023 11:33
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 05 April 2023 11:50
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Kr55 on Wed, 05 April 2023 12:56
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 05 April 2023 13:11
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 05 April 2023 13:13
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Kr55 on Thu, 06 April 2023 08:08
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Adam on Thu, 06 April 2023 09:18
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 06 April 2023 10:00
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Kr55 on Thu, 06 April 2023 10:35
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 06 April 2023 11:23
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Kr55 on Thu, 06 April 2023 12:04
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Adam on Thu, 06 April 2023 12:50
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: inverno76 on Wed, 05 April 2023 19:42
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 05 April 2023 21:05
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: tardigrade81 on Thu, 06 April 2023 08:43
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: tardigrade81 on Thu, 06 April 2023 08:43
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 05 April 2023 11:53
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Skookum Jim on Wed, 05 April 2023 18:25
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: tardigrade81 on Wed, 05 April 2023 18:32
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Rocksteady on Thu, 06 April 2023 11:27
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 06 April 2023 11:28
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: MJ on Thu, 06 April 2023 17:24
Re: Pregame: Edmonton @ Anaheim (Game #79)	By: tardigrade81 on Fri, 07 April 2023 11:23

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