OilFans.com :: Fan Forum: Oilers => Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)

Guest

This day on May 26
None

Happy Birthday To: Oilcrazy99, Crazy Oiler with nice moves, Oiler_fan11, jordy

OILERS INFO OILFANS
Sunday, May 26, 2024 4:06 AM MT

F.A.Q.

Members

Home

Oilers » Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)

Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18) [message #722309 is a reply to message #722308 ]	Thu, 15 November 2018 10:49

Adam
Messages: 6933
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 15 November 2018 08:55

Well since you are all knowing and the expert in here. What's your explanation as to Talbot's play? Talbot came here in the 2015 draft. At the time Schwartz was the goalie coach.

2015- First year as the starter. Brand new coach, goalie coach, system and defense so maybe you can excuse some adjustment time. The defense isn't that good. He struggles for the first 2 months. Is flat out not that good. Losses his job to Nilsson who is nothing more than a back up. Nilsson is brand new to the Oilers as well he does well but Talbot struggles. Talbot does something, I don't know what. He turns it around and plays well. Earns starters job and a new contract.

2016 - Same head coach, same system, same goalie coach, mostly the same defense. Defense is marginally better. Talbot was fantastic. Played 73 games, was 4th in line for the vesina, should have been in line for it. I am not 100% but I think he set a record for games played and wins for an Oilers goalie in a season. He was excellent from game 1. No issues with bad goals or letting first shot in.

2017 - Same head coach, same system, same goalie coach, mostly the same defense. Defense is without Sekera so it might not be quite as good but at the same time, other young dmen have more experience. Talbot was lousy in the preseason, awesome in game 1, was lousy from game 2 on. Was below .900 for almost the entire season, went on a hot streak towards the end of the year to get him above .900. He gave up a ton of bad goals, I think he set a record for giving up goals on the first shot. He sucked last year. The whole team had a bit of an off year but Talbot probably had one of the worst of the bunch. You can't win without goaltending. They let him play because they didn't have a back up. Was the defense not good enough? Yes. Was the system not good enough, most likely. But coaching and system has nothing to do with the amount of garbage goals he let in. Coaching and system has nothing to do with how poorly he handled rebounds. Coaching and system has nothing to do with setting a record for letting in first shots. Lots of those first shot goals weren't that great. Make a bloody save. So since you are all knowing Adam, what happened?

2018 - Same head coach, tweaked system, same goalie coach, mostly the same defense. The defense as a whole has been better. Contract year, so usually you see an up tick. Talbot himself in interviews said he was lousy and would be better. Apparently he trained harder and did extra work in the offseason. Came into this year. He was OK, not great in the preseason. They rode Talbot because they had no confidence in Koskinen. He was OK, not great, had a few stinker games in there. Finally put Koskinen, he's outstanding. Play Talbot, he's mediocre. Play Koskinen at home, he stood on his head. Talbot still mediocre in the next games he's in. Let's in bad goals and some first shots. Overall, Koskinen has been really good, Talbot hasn't been good. When you are below .900, you haven't been good. Each goalie plays for the same coaches, same system, same defense, same goalie coach. So since you are all knowing Adam, what has happened? Why the drastic difference in play? You can't blame the coaches or defense because they are the same. The same guys that do stupid things and give aways that cause great chances play in front of Koskinen. They give up the same bloody chances.

When it comes to the media, could they be just seeing Koskinen putting in the work and miss Talbot? I guess so. These guys basically tell us when any Oilers player wipes their nose so I have a hard time believing they would miss Talbot and extra practice. But it's possible. Do I think they would not be reporting Talbot putting in extra work? I do not think so. I read what all these guys write about Talbot on the papers and on all the fan sites. Talbot is their boy. They spend a ton of times propping up Talbot. I listen to the radio shows and these guys fall all over themselves trying to protect Talbot, trying to prop him up and tell us how the coaches need to be careful of Talbots feelings. I read and listened to how every media tore Koskinen apart. The signing was brutal (i agreed it was too much money at the time), they tore him apart about his preseason the camp, how unreliable he was, etc, etc. He was crap to them. So I have a hard time believing given the Talbot love in Edmonton that if Talbot was working his ass off that guys like Rishaugh, Nielson, Staffer, etc wouldn't be making sure that every singe one of us knew just how hard he was working. So something is up.

- He can't be tired because the Oilers schedule hasn't been that busy, we aren't even 20 games in, he's got lots of days off thanks to the schedule and Koskinen has started 5 out of 18 games. If you do that math and if they kept up that amount, Koskinen would start 23 games. That means Talbot is under 60 games. So perfect.

- You can't blame the coaches. Same guys, same system, same goalie coach.

- You can't blame the players. The same guys have been here pretty much all season except maybe rotating 1 player.

So if it isn't a case of Koskinen just being the hungrier guy, what is it? Having a save percentage of 23 pts less than the other guy is a hell of a lot. Having more than half a goal more a game is a hell of a lot.

There's a lot to unpack here:

1) Save percentage in a small sample size is significantly skewed by one or two good or bad performances. Small subsets aren't accurate way of measuring, because in any given game, an all-star goalie could have a stinker of a night, or could be faced with multiple high danger chances and the numbers could be terrible.

2) Who a goalie plays is important to a goalie's save percentage.

3) How the team plays is important to a goalie's save percentage.

4) How "hungry" a guy is rarely makes a difference in whether you stop a puck or not. Dubnyk didn't decide in 2013-14 that he didn't care as much about stopping pucks, and he wasn't likely significantly more hungry the year before or the year after. Talbot didn't come in to camp this year feeling like he didn't care, and two years ago it's unlikely he had a much different mindset.

I am going to ignore most of that historical stuff, because A) I don't think it's very relevant, and B) I only have so much time to dedicate to the response.

Let's look closer at the performance of the two guys:

Koskinen's played in 5 starts and one relief appearance. Two of those starts are against teams already well back of the playoffs. One more was against a wild card team. He's had two starts against really good teams - one of which he won, and the other where he got lit up. Against the worst teams, he has a shutout, and a .885 sv percentage win. Against Nashville, he won, despite a .889 save percentage. He had .857 against Tampa in his big loss, and he had a .931 in the win against Montreal. He was .923 against Colorado in relief, but he came in with Colorado already with a significant lead.

Most games, you can expect .900 is about the difference point between winning and losing. If both teams have ~30 shots, and the score is a pretty normal 3-2 or 4-3 game, then the goalie under .900 is losing and the one above is winning. That's simple way of looking at it, but it works for our purposes here. If you look at it that way, the Oilers have twice won games for Koskinen where he's under .900. They don't outscore in those games and we are looking at a 2-3 backup and no one is clamouring to give him the starting job.

Talbot's started 13 games, getting pulled once. He's played all contending teams other than Chicago and Florida (one W, one L). He's 5-8 in those games. In his losses, he's three times been over .900. In his wins, he's 4 times over .900 and one under.

I don't think the two goalies are as far apart as some feel here. Talbot's looked pretty solid in several games, including a 3-0 loss to the Predators, and he's had a handful of shaky starts. I do think the Oilers on the whole are giving up too many high quality chances, so I do feel that they're system play and team play are contributors here.

I think the top pairing defence has played better than they did last year, but everyone else is playing below par. Nurse is near team-worst in +/-. Russell's had his significant struggles. Benning's struggled. The sixth defenceman has basically been a different guy every night.

I know it's fashionable to blame the goalie, and everyone always loves the underdog back-up story, but the Oilers have used Koskinen against lesser opponents and he hasn't outperformed...you're looking at a guy who had a sub-.900 save percentage against the Detroit Red Wings...and Talbot, while he's struggled, isn't doing it because he's just not working hard enough.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Report message to a moderator

Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: OilFans on Tue, 13 November 2018 21:30
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: K.McC#24 on Tue, 13 November 2018 21:41
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: g2k on Tue, 13 November 2018 21:44
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: overdue on Tue, 13 November 2018 22:06
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: inverno76 on Tue, 13 November 2018 22:26
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Lew19 on Tue, 13 November 2018 23:16
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: NetBOG on Tue, 13 November 2018 23:31
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Magnum on Wed, 14 November 2018 05:18
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: GabbyDugan on Wed, 14 November 2018 08:07
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 14 November 2018 08:42
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: CrudeRemarks on Wed, 14 November 2018 09:33
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Kr55 on Wed, 14 November 2018 09:52
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 14 November 2018 10:10
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Rocksteady on Wed, 14 November 2018 10:24
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 14 November 2018 10:38
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Adam on Wed, 14 November 2018 16:57
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 15 November 2018 08:55
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Adam on Thu, 15 November 2018 10:49
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 16 November 2018 11:25
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: GabbyDugan on Fri, 16 November 2018 12:13
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: g2k on Thu, 15 November 2018 18:19
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: K.McC#24 on Fri, 16 November 2018 10:46
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Adam on Fri, 16 November 2018 11:15
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: K.McC#24 on Fri, 16 November 2018 11:22
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Steve on Fri, 16 November 2018 09:29
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Adam on Fri, 16 November 2018 10:03
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Magnum on Fri, 16 November 2018 09:47
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Adam on Fri, 16 November 2018 10:07
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 16 November 2018 10:30
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Adam on Fri, 16 November 2018 11:13
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Magnum on Fri, 16 November 2018 11:08
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: CrudeRemarks on Wed, 14 November 2018 16:51
Re: Review: Montreal @ Edmonton (Game #18)	By: Kr55 on Wed, 14 November 2018 21:42

Previous Topic: Yamamoto and Puljuljarvi Assigned to Condors
Next Topic: Oilers recall Patrick Russell
Oilers NHL Minors Speculation For Sale

Copyright © OilFans.com 1996-2022.
All content is property of OilFans.com and cannot be used without expressed, written consent from this site.
Questions, comments and suggestions can be directed to oilfans@OilFans.com
Privacy Statement

Hosted by LogicalHosting.ca