 RDOilerfan
Messages: 3798
Registered: January 2016
3 Cups
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| CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:54 |
| RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35 |
| Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:54 |
| RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 13:21 |
| Kr55 wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:44 |
| RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18 |
No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.
If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.
It is what it is in here I guess.
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Do you totally discount recent performance when you're trying to create the best team in the NHL the next season? We aren't just some average team that you just hope things work out every year. We have the best player in the NHL and possibly the 2nd best and we continue to misplay our hand. Plus we're on the cusp of those 2 guys having to make their decision to stick around. We need to be dang sure we have our important positions solid next season. It's a huge risk to just hope goaltending will work out, especially with our untouchable regression master coaching our goalies.
These Carter Hart rumors are frightening honestly. A quadruple down on Schwartz by getting his most popular student. God...
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I look at the whole season of work of a player, not 12 games.
In 21-22 - Skinner played in 13 games, started 12. He was 6-6 2.62GA, .913% 1 shut out. No one would accuse that Oilers team of being defensive specialists. So not eye popping but pretty decent numbers.
In 22-23 - Skinner played in 50 games, started 48. He was 29-14-5 2.75GA, .914% 1 shut out. Again, no one would accuse the Oilers team of being defensive specialists. Again, not eye popping but pretty decent numbers. He got voted to the all star team and is up for the calder.
The playoffs, he wasn't near as good. But I look at the body of work and for the huge majority of it, he was pretty good. He has 60 regular season starts and for the most part, they are pretty good. The 12 playoffs starts, not so good. Now I have listed many times the pressures of the playoffs can impact even vet guys. In my opinion, that pressure is more on a rookie, then it is even more when you are playing in your home town. Then I think it's even more if you are a rookie goalie, playing in your home town in a hockey insane market. So in my opinion, I think the pressure got to the rookie but he isn't the first rookie not to play well in their first playoffs and he won't be the last.
So then I look at the body of work and I personally see the makings of a good goalie who had a tough 12 games at the worst time. I think the pressures of the playoffs got to him but he will be better for it next season. In all the times he spoke, he seems to be a guy who will take whatever bad happened and use it as fuel to be better. So I think he will be better next year. But, if he isn't better, if he just stays as he is, I still see a solid NHL goalie have can play over 40 starts and give you a chance to win who's signed to a reasonable deal for the next 3 seasons.
So the Oilers could trade Skinner, bring in someone else and maybe that guy is better but he could just as easily not be any better and maybe way worse than what they had, just like Campbell was last year.
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I would say first off, the body of work is small no matter how we try to dig in. Think these playoffs highlight again to everyone how unpredictable and how helpful or damaging goaltending can be.
Can we break out Skinner's year into 3 parts?
2022 - 0.917 sav%, 2.78 GAA, 0.856 high danger sav%
Those are great stats, great start to his season. He pretty much saved us when Campbell went right down the toilet with his glove with a hole in it and butter pads that he had to completely switch all of.
2023 regular season - 0.910 sav%, 2.72 GAA, 0.808 high danger sav%
His individual contribution to wins started to tail off. We finally started to score for him, so it didn't matter as much. He did have some rough periods and needed Campbell to step in to give him a break.
And of course playoffs - 0.883 sav%, 3.68 GAA, 0.755 high danger sav%
I mentioned before, I think he got exposed for his poor stick work. Lots of goals by guys just staking out right in front of him, or pucks passed across right in front and he's keeping his stick tight up against his pads not even considering to use it to break up the play. His second efforts on saves vanished along with his confidence. Our D, especially one pair, were extra braindead about covering the net which helped give a little negative boost to his numbers.
We saw the good for a few months. The average for a few months, and just a chaotic mess for a month.
Now do we focus just on the good? Assume it comes back and he can sustain it? It's certainly possible, but I think you're taking a risk if you are going to count on it happening. Many goalies in history have had a season like Skinners and just cratered the next year.
I guess in the end all I'm saying is that you can't be certain at all about what you're getting from Skinner next season. He ended up at every extreme this year, he is very early in his career with a tiny NHL sample size. You better have some smart people in your org making the best possible educated guesses on how his career is going to go now, and I don't think we have anything like that.
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What it comes down to for me is if a person thinks Skinner has peaked and he's going to spiral down or as first year NHL goalie, can he improve. I don't have a crystal ball so maybe this is a good as Skinner gets and from here, the best he can do is maintain. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun a little. He's 24, a first year NHL goalie. All the way along his pro career, he's shown improvement each year. So I am going to for now, believe in his trend of getting better as he gets experience.
This is the last time I am going to talk about this topic because all I am doing is repeating the same message over and over again. In my opinion, unless you are getting back a guaranteed, no doubt he is better now and will be better for years to come, signed goalie who makes around the same money as Skinner, in my opinion it would be a foolish mistake to get rid of a 24 yr old goalie who is signed for a reasonable contract and who's shown an ability to give you good goaltending, who's coming off his first year as a full time NHL goaltender, primarily because he had a bad playoff which was his very first one for the reasons I have listed multiple times.
So a person can say they aren't basing their decision on the 12 games and list all the stats you want but in my opinion, they are lying. I say that because there wasn't a person here, at least I can't remember one, who was advocating to trade Skinner off before the playoffs. Then a rookie has a rough playoffs, something extremely common and the switch got turned and now he can't do the job and we should be looking elsewhere.
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First comment in the Skinner Extended thread:
| RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 19 December 2022 09:39 |
Anyone worried this is another Koskinen thing where they jump the gun on resigning a guy based on limited games? I personally don't think it is but it popped in my head when I saw that.
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There have been questions.
Anyway, the suggestion isn't trade Skinner because he sucks or trade Skinner because his last 12 games kind of sucked (I actually don't think this correct. He was wildly average against two very good teams) it's either trade Skinner because the value might be high or trade Skinner because we can't risk next year on the Soup and Stew combo.
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When you comment on what I say, do you ever just comment on what I actually say or just twist it to suit your narrative?
In my comment that you quoted in this particular thread, it literally says I can't remember a person advocating to trade Skinner BEFORE THE PLAYOFFS started. I am talking about stuff that happened in April so you drag out a quote from mid December.
So I am taking about trading the guy and you drag out a comment I made about his contract. How the hell are they related? Which in case you are wondering, I stand by what I said regarding the contract because I would have waited until the end of the season to sign him but it looks like it will probably be OK.
But you win PI. You and Adam win. I have repeated myself so many times on this topic, you have beat the will to comment on it anymore. I can only take so much irrational chatter before I am at my limit. Congrats!
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2023 - The Summer of Ken |
By: Adam on Mon, 05 June 2023 16:22 |
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