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 Re: Winds of Change [message #706780 is a reply to message #706714 ]
Tue, 09 January 2018 00:13 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Registered: October 2006
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2 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 08 January 2018 07:53


So you think that all the Oilers players, forget having a better year, have been just as good as last year. REALLY?

Other than McDavid and Nuge, who on the Oilers team has even had an OK year? Nurse has taken a step. But who else?

Klefbom had 12 goals, 38 pts last year. He has 3 goals, 10 pts in 39 games this year. That's a 21 pt pace. How do you as a team project Klefbom scoring HALF the points he did last year? Maybe you assume he will score the same or ever so slightly less but HALF as much? That's massive. That doesn't even count how brutal at times defensively he has been for most of the year.

Benning at times last year looked like a guy who in short order will have a second pairing spot locked up.

Maroon. You say he is basically scoring at the same rate. HUH? He had 27 goals last year. He has 9 in 41. That's an 18 goal pace. As a team maybe you don't expect him to score 27 again but I don't think you expect him to be less than 20 and off McDavid's line because he's not good enough. Especially in a contract year. He hasn't been close to the say player with all the other things he usually does.

Caggulia had 7 goals, 18 pts in 61 games last year. As a team, do you seriously expect him to put up the same numbers again? Those are 4th liner numbers. I would expect him to at least slightly improve on those numbers. I don't see him as a 4th liner, do you?

Kassian hasn't been close to as good. He had what 4 goals called back last year. I thought he was a lock for over 10.

Slep I thought would be a lock to be in the line up every night. He doesn't even look like a full time NHLer.

Talbot was what 4th in vezina votes last year? He has a .902 save percentage and a 3.19 GA this year. Do you expect your pushing for a vezina nomination goalie to be putting up numbers you wouldn't even want to get from a back up? Are his numbers all his fault? No but he's been no where near as good this year.



I clipped your post to save space, but kept in the parts I wanted to respond to.

Here are the points per game for most of the Oilers regulars for 16/17 and then 17/18:

McDavid - 1.22 / 1.09
Drai - 0.94 / 0.85
RNH - 0.52 / 0.70
Lucic - 0.61 / 0.63
Maroon - 0.52 / 0.51
Strome - 0.43 / 0.40
Letestu - 0.45 / 0.37
Khaira - 0.10 / 0.43
Kassian - 0.30 / 0.28
Puljujarvi - 0.29 / 0.42
Caggiula - 0.30 / 0.29
Slepyshev - 0.24 / 0.17

Russel - 0.19 / 0.37
Nurse - 0.25 / 0.33
Klefbom - 0.46 / 0.26
Benning - 0.24 / 0.23
Larsson - 0.24 / 0.11


I think this is about what we should expect. Some guys are up, some are down.

Maroon's goals are down (but his points are right in line with last year), but RNH is on pace to score 10 more goals than last year which more than makes up for it.

Lucic performing right where he was last year.

I agree that Letestu has on balance been worse, but Khaira has actually played quite well which makes Letestu's struggles less impactful.

Slep is down, but Puljujarvi is up.

Strome, Caggiula, Kassian all exactly where they were last year. If you're expecting guys that have only ever performed at a 4th line level (with the exception of one season of Kassian where he played a lot with the Sedins), to suddenly start performing above that level, then I would respectfully suggest that the issue is with your expectations, not the player's performance.

As fans, we can absolutely hope that everybody improves or stays the same, but it's just not realistic. And if you're the GM and paid 7-figures to build a winning team, you don't have the luxury of banking on those types of bets.

On defence, I think I was clear that Klef has struggled. Injured? Maybe. I think I've been pretty consistent that I felt the Oilers needed to go out and add another defenceman. So no, I'm not super surprised the group has struggled. Benning played most of the year last year with the Oilers most consistent defenceman. He's a 2nd year pro, nevermind NHLer, so no I'm not shocked he hasn't looked as good.

Nurse has, as you mentioned taken a step forward. Russell is scoring at double the rate he did last year - I know I was as shocked as you are icon_wink

So Nurse up, Benning down. Klef down, Russell up. Now, Klefbom plays a more significant role than Russell does, so his struggles hurt the team more. Not to mention that the other parts of Russell's game still leave a lot to be desired. But I bet if you had added another good top 4 defenceman into that group, the picture would be much different.

Here is, of course, what is missing from the list above:

Eberle - 0.62
Sekera - 0.44
Throw in Pitlick at 0.35 (and 8 even strength goals), and here we are.

As for Talbot, 100% agree that a .902 save % is not where I thought he would be. If you break down his numbers this year:

At even strength - .916 (24th out of 31 goalies that have played more than 20 games, )
On the PK - .807 (31st out of 31)

Last year:
EV - .927 (11th out of 32 goalies that played more than 40 games)
PK - .877 (14th out of 32)

So he's not exactly being helped by the Oilers historically bad PP. But yes, I totally agree that Talbot is part of the problem right now.

I don't put the Oilers struggles as much on the players as I do on the GM and coaches because I don't think any of these things are surprising with the exception of Talbot, but even with him I think there are mitigating factors (the PK), and as others have discussed Chia gave him no cover.

[Updated on: Tue, 09 January 2018 00:17]


Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20: 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 pace:192 GF / 182 GA (+10) after 16 games

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