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 Speculation » Hall vs Nuge
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 Hall vs Nuge [message #787855]
Wed, 16 June 2021 17:56 Go to previous message
smyth260 is currently online smyth260
Messages: 2565
Registered: November 2007

2 Cups

The door hasn't seemed to close on Taylor Hall coming back to Edmonton.

For me, Taylor Hall is the hardest player in the whole league which to assign a value to. I struggle to rank him whenever I make my yearly fantasy hockey draft spreadsheet. I struggle to come up with a dollar I'd be happy with. His ceiling is high, as he won the Hart trophy in 2018 and puts up ppg seasons every now and then. But he also has lots of underwhelming seasons, and lots of games lost due to injury.

Maybe an easier exercise is to examine which player we'd rather have. Nuge or Hall?
I don't really believe it has to be a decision of Nuge OR Hall with creative cap management, but I think that's the best we will get. So let's compare the two.

Nugent-Hopkins Career:
656GP 185G 293A 478P ---> 0.73PPG

Hall Career:
680GP 228G 368A 596P ---> 0.88PPG

Nugent-Hopkins last 5 seasons
343GP 108G 148A 256P ---> 0.75PPG

Hall last 5 seasons
299GP 96G 172A 268P ---> 0.90PPG

Nugent-Hopkins last 3 seasons
199GP 66G 99A 165P ---> 0.83PPG

Hall last 3 seasons
151GP 37G 85A 122P ---> 0.81PPG




So Hall clearly has the career advantage, and then his Hart trophy season gives him a big edge over the last 5 years as well as far as PPG goes. We want to make the best prediction for future performance. So let's remove each of their best PPG year from the last 5 years and see what happens.

Nugent-Hopkins last 5 years, best season removed
278GP 86G 109A 195P --> 0.70PPG

Hall last 5 years, best season removed
223GP 57G 118A 175P --> 0.78PPG




So after removing their *outlier* seasons, surprisingly there is still a decent PPG edge for Hall. But the spread between the two was cut in half.

Nugent-Hopkins however, has outproduced Taylor Hall in both totals and PPG over the last 3 years. It has been an underwhelming stretch for Hall. The last 3 years puts him at 59th in PPG over that time (min 100GP), with Nuge at 52nd.

What makes valuating Taylor Hall so difficult is his larger swings in production and combined with his consistent injury history. Nugent-Hopkins has played significantly more hockey than Hall over the last 3 and 5 years. He generally gets more points in a season than Hall in recent years, even if Hall might score at a better rate.

Some disadvantages Hall has had over the last 3 years however are that he's played for 4 teams. Three of those are New Jersey, Arizona, and Buffalo. Jack Eichel got injured early in their time together. Hall simply has not gotten to play with great players until Boston, where he had better results. Nugent-Hopkins on the other hand has benefited from playing with Draisaitl, McDavid, and the top powerplay in the league over the last 2 seasons.

Another argument for Nugent-Hopkins is that he is 1 year and 5 months younger than Hall. That certainly matters for the longer term contracts we are looking at with these guys as they go into their mid 30s.

So in summary:

Taylor Hall
------------
- Higher ceiling
- Better production than Nuge until the last 3 years
- Has not had team stability or played with great players in recent years
- Older
- Gets injured a lot more

Nugent-Hopkins
------------------
- Lower ceiling
- Outproduced by Hall, until the last 3 years
- 1 year and 5 months younger
- Has stayed pretty healthy over the last 5 years (only 30GP missed)
- Benefited from playing with McDavid/Draisaitl and #1 powerplay

It's really close for me. It's pretty tempting to picture Hall and Draisaitl together again, it's not a bad bet that his production would surge. But the age and durability is a factor.

Let's have a poll in the below post.



Clean house or bust

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