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 Speculation » How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M?
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 How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698967]
Thu, 14 September 2017 13:15 Go to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Points for Drai to earn his coin[ 78 vote(s) ]
1.50-54 2 / 3%
2.55-59 1 / 1%
3.60-64 4 / 5%
4.65-69 2 / 3%
5.70-74 19 / 24%
6.75-79 29 / 37%
7.80+ 21 / 27%

Just wondering what point production people think an 8.5M guy playing #2C needs to achieve to earn his salary.

Topping out at 80+ because there were only 7 guys that did that last season. I think that would be a sure thing that he earned his money.

Some factors to consider. I would expect McLellan will be giving McDavid the most opportune minutes 5v5 now that he has a 2nd and 3rd line C that should be able to handle playing against good players. At least I hope McLellan sees this as an opportunity to give McDavid more favourable zone starts and matchups when possible. This should take away some of Drai's opportunity to score at even strength compared to what the "go-to" offensive guys get on other teams.

Considering that, I think 65+ would be enough for me to be satisfied with Drai next year. That would be top 15 production last season among C's, and to hit that level playing on a 2nd line, I think would be impressive. If we have a #2C doing that behind McDavid, we are probably a top 5 team in the league as long as the D/G are getting the job done as well. I'm not accounting for the ratio of EV to PP points of course. As part of that minimum 65 points i would hope ~2/3 are coming at evens.

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 13:18]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698972 is a reply to message #698967 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 14:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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I think he needs to be in the 75-79 point range. He's going to get #1 PP minutes.

He might not have Connor to carry him anymore, which means he has to earn that on his own. But $8.5 should probably be in that point range, and if he is going to earn him money, he'll have to find a way to hit this.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698973 is a reply to message #698972 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 14:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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I'd be pretty happy if Drai was centering his own line, being that big bodied center that is needed to match up against the Getzlaf's, being over 50% on faceoffs and scoring close to 70 pts. I'd say he'd earn his money if he did that.


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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698974 is a reply to message #698972 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 14:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 14:32

I think he needs to be in the 75-79 point range. He's going to get #1 PP minutes.

He might not have Connor to carry him anymore, which means he has to earn that on his own. But $8.5 should probably be in that point range, and if he is going to earn him money, he'll have to find a way to hit this.


That would put him top 10 in the league again.

I really do think that kind of production on a 2nd line (even with #1 PP minutes) is not possible for anyone aside from Malkin. Just my opinion though. And if Malkin was on the open market right now, he would probably get 12M AAV. Just don't think the offensive opportunity and push from the coaching staff is there to make up for not being on the 1st line at evens.

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 14:54]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698975 is a reply to message #698974 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 15:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 13:52

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 14:32

I think he needs to be in the 75-79 point range. He's going to get #1 PP minutes.

He might not have Connor to carry him anymore, which means he has to earn that on his own. But $8.5 should probably be in that point range, and if he is going to earn him money, he'll have to find a way to hit this.


That would put him top 10 in the league again.

I really do think that kind of production on a 2nd line (even with #1 PP minutes) is not possible for anyone aside from Malkin. Just my opinion though. And if Malkin was on the open market right now, he would probably get 12M AAV. Just don't think the offensive opportunity and push from the coaching staff is there to make up for not being on the 1st line at evens.


He's definitely getting paid like a 1st line player (11th highest cap hit in the league next year), so I don't think it's unreasonable that he produces regardless of what line he's on. I doubt his EV minutes are much lower than McDavid's and he will likely benefit from opposing coaches putting their best defensive pairing out against McDavid.

And his proposed wingers (Lucic/Slep) are not much, if any worse, than who McDavid is going to get (Maroon/Strome).

To clarify, I think a 65 point season playing 2nd line centre would be a great season from Drai. I just don't think they should have paid $8.5M for that.

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 15:03]


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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698977 is a reply to message #698975 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 15:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Goose wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:00

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 13:52

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 14:32

I think he needs to be in the 75-79 point range. He's going to get #1 PP minutes.

He might not have Connor to carry him anymore, which means he has to earn that on his own. But $8.5 should probably be in that point range, and if he is going to earn him money, he'll have to find a way to hit this.


That would put him top 10 in the league again.

I really do think that kind of production on a 2nd line (even with #1 PP minutes) is not possible for anyone aside from Malkin. Just my opinion though. And if Malkin was on the open market right now, he would probably get 12M AAV. Just don't think the offensive opportunity and push from the coaching staff is there to make up for not being on the 1st line at evens.


He's definitely getting paid like a 1st line player (11th highest cap hit in the league next year), so I don't think it's unreasonable that he produces regardless of what line he's on. I doubt his EV minutes are much lower than McDavid's and he will likely benefit from opposing coaches putting their best defensive pairing out against McDavid.

And his proposed wingers (Lucic/Slep) are not much, if any worse, than who McDavid is going to get (Maroon/Strome).

To clarify, I think a 65 point season playing 2nd line centre would be a great season from Drai. I just don't think they should have paid $8.5M for that.


Is that how hockey player negotiation works though? You are asking a guy that believes he could be a 1st line player on other teams to play 2nd line on your team. So, how do you convince them to just accept being paid like a 2nd liner and stay with your team through the best years of his career? Players should have the right to ask to be paid what they think they are capable of, and it's up to the coaching staff how to use them to help the team win the most games. If you want a guy that would be the #1C on half or more of the teams in the NHL to play on your 2nd line, sorry, you still have to pay him like a #1C. Obviously both Drai and Chia are 100% sure Drai is a #1C based on the result of their negotiation, so it has to be true :)

I could see him lagging McDavid in EV ice time by 3 minutes or more per game because McLellan will be giving Nuge's line an equal push.

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 15:25]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698978 is a reply to message #698977 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 15:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 14:20


Is that how hockey player negotiation works though? You are asking a guy that believes he could be a 1st line player on other teams to play 2nd line on your team. So, how do you convince them to just accept being paid like a 2nd liner and stay with your team through the best years of his career? Players should have the right to ask to be paid what they think they are capable of, and it's up to the coaching staff how to use them to help the team win the most games. If you want a guy that would be the #1C on half or more of the teams in the NHL to play on your 2nd line, sorry, you still have to pay him like a #1C. Obviously both Drai and Chia are 100% sure Drai is a #1C based on the result of their negotiation, so it has to be true :)

I could see him lagging McDavid in EV ice time by 3 minutes or more per game because McLellan will be giving Nuge's line an equal push.


Paying him $7M or $7.5M is hardly paying him like a 2nd liner. Brayden Schenn has the 91st highest cap hit among forwards next year at $5.125M

As it is, he's being paid like an elite player. He had 27 PP points last year, so somewhere around 33-38 EVP to get to 60-65 next year if his PP production remains the same. That would put him between 60th and 103rd in EVP among forwards based on last year. That's bottom end 1st line to top end 2nd line production and not good enough imo for the 11th highest cap hit in the league.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698980 is a reply to message #698978 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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I know what is going to happen after I say this. People will bring up how many UFA years these players are giving up but I personally don't see it like that.

Kuznetsov signed this year for 7.8 mill. He was coming off a 59 pt season. The season before he had 77 pts. He's 25, has a little more experience, he's further along in his development, so you should have a better idea the player that he is. The sweet spot for him pts wise over the length of the deal is probably in the middle so mid 60's in points. I get that the Caps "bought" UFA years but so what, they are paying a player who's a center and who's probably mid 60's in points 7.8 mill.

Johansen signed this year for 8 mill. He's coming off a 61 pt season. The season before that he had 60 pts. The season before that he was 71, then 63. So if you average it out, he's probably a mid 60's pt center. He's 25, has a little more experience, he's further along in his development, so you should have a better idea the player that he is. I get that Nashville bought UFA years but again so what, again they are paying a mid 60's pt center 8 mill.

In the case of Leon. IN his first real season he had 51 pts in 72 games. Over 82, that's almost 60 pts. This past season, he had 77 pts in 82 games good for 8th in league scoring. He had another 19 pts in 13 games in the playoffs. Leon is only 21 so he hasn't even hit his prime as a player yet. I personally think that Leon is a better player than Kuznetsov or Johansen. I am sure Leon's camp believes that as well. So if you are his camp and you have both of those contracts already on the books regardless if they bought up more "UFA years" why would you be willing to accept LESS than those guys when you are a superior player right now at 21 and there is a good chance since you are so young you will only get better?

In the case of the Oilers, you just signed McDavid to a 12.5 mill extension which most people think is well worth it. Leon is the second best player on the team. He was the best player for your team in the playoffs, you have the 2 players I described who recently signed. I am sure as an organization you feel Leon is better now and will be way better than them in the future. So how do you go to Leon, probably agree with him that he is better than those 2 but say, "Well I know you are a better player than those 2 but they bought more UFA years so you have to take less" especially when you just gave Connor 12.5 which everyone says is great. Leon is not a good as McDavid but he's not 5-5.5 mill worse than him. Let's get real here.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698983 is a reply to message #698980 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 16:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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You are on a discussion board so opinions are expected. That in mind you can't completely discount facts and then present your opinions as alternate facts.


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14

I know what is going to happen after I say this. People will bring up how many UFA years these players are giving up but I personally don't see it like that.




100% opinion. The fact is that every single contract is discussed based on how many UFA years are being purchased. This is why almost every player is overpaid on July 1st. You yourself have used it to defend the Lucic deal. Why is it invalid now?

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14




In the case of Leon. IN his first real season he had 51 pts in 72 games. Over 82, that's almost 60 pts. This past season, he had 77 pts in 82 games good for 8th in league scoring. He had another 19 pts in 13 games in the playoffs.


You have repeated many times your dislike for advanced stats but have taken equal opportunities to manipulate stats and extrapolate whatever proof you think you need to back up an opinion.
The fact is Leon has played what he has played and scored what he has scored. You cant discount the games, seasons, or partial seasons that dont fit your narrative.

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14

if they bought up more "UFA years" why would you be willing to accept LESS than those guys


Again, buying UFA years is a a standard across the league when evaluating a players contract worth

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14

when you are a superior player right now at 21 and there is a good chance since you are so young you will only get better?




Opinion, not fact. How do you know he will get better? That is one of the point of the RFA years that should be cheap. You can use those to evaluate long term worth. McDavid is close to a sure bet as there has been since Crosby. You lock him up as soon as you can. Everyone else on the team has to EARN max term and dollar.


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14


So how do you go to Leon, probably agree with him that he is better than those 2 but say, "Well I know you are a better player than those 2 but they bought more UFA years so you have to take less"


You were right in your assumption. It is all about UFA years, top everyone but Chia.

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14


Let's get real here.


We have tried, you like to ignore it.
Many have laid out what is "real" about buying UFA years. I pointed out a few flaws in presenting your opinions as facts.
How about you get real. Dont cherry pick stats or players.
I hate most of the MSM but you love quoting the radio, call in shows, sports writers, etc. Can you examples of any out there, other than those in and around Edmonton, that thought this was a good contract?

I am being sincere here in my ask. I am actually curious if this exists, because I cant find any. At the time, everything I saw in the media was along the lines of "wow, the Oilers really opened up the books for Drai". You recently challenged Adam on something to do with Chia and a personal vendetta. Your cheer leading and inability to look past his flaws seems to be exactly the same but the other side of the fence of the accusations you have leveled.

So that is the challenge. Can you find anything that isnt YOUR opinion that this was a team friendly deal? Not even facts, just someone else's (hopefully respected) opinion will do.




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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698991 is a reply to message #698983 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 08:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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PlusOne wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:46

You are on a discussion board so opinions are expected. That in mind you can't completely discount facts and then present your opinions as alternate facts.


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14

I know what is going to happen after I say this. People will bring up how many UFA years these players are giving up but I personally don't see it like that.




100% opinion. The fact is that every single contract is discussed based on how many UFA years are being purchased. This is why almost every player is overpaid on July 1st. You yourself have used it to defend the Lucic deal. Why is it invalid now?

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14




In the case of Leon. IN his first real season he had 51 pts in 72 games. Over 82, that's almost 60 pts. This past season, he had 77 pts in 82 games good for 8th in league scoring. He had another 19 pts in 13 games in the playoffs.


You have repeated many times your dislike for advanced stats but have taken equal opportunities to manipulate stats and extrapolate whatever proof you think you need to back up an opinion.
The fact is Leon has played what he has played and scored what he has scored. You cant discount the games, seasons, or partial seasons that dont fit your narrative.

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14

if they bought up more "UFA years" why would you be willing to accept LESS than those guys


Again, buying UFA years is a a standard across the league when evaluating a players contract worth

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14

when you are a superior player right now at 21 and there is a good chance since you are so young you will only get better?




Opinion, not fact. How do you know he will get better? That is one of the point of the RFA years that should be cheap. You can use those to evaluate long term worth. McDavid is close to a sure bet as there has been since Crosby. You lock him up as soon as you can. Everyone else on the team has to EARN max term and dollar.


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14


So how do you go to Leon, probably agree with him that he is better than those 2 but say, "Well I know you are a better player than those 2 but they bought more UFA years so you have to take less"


You were right in your assumption. It is all about UFA years, top everyone but Chia.

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:14


Let's get real here.


We have tried, you like to ignore it.
Many have laid out what is "real" about buying UFA years. I pointed out a few flaws in presenting your opinions as facts.
How about you get real. Dont cherry pick stats or players.
I hate most of the MSM but you love quoting the radio, call in shows, sports writers, etc. Can you examples of any out there, other than those in and around Edmonton, that thought this was a good contract?

I am being sincere here in my ask. I am actually curious if this exists, because I cant find any. At the time, everything I saw in the media was along the lines of "wow, the Oilers really opened up the books for Drai". You recently challenged Adam on something to do with Chia and a personal vendetta. Your cheer leading and inability to look past his flaws seems to be exactly the same but the other side of the fence of the accusations you have leveled.

So that is the challenge. Can you find anything that isnt YOUR opinion that this was a team friendly deal? Not even facts, just someone else's (hopefully respected) opinion will do.



I am not sure how many times I have said it since the deal was signed. Probably 10-15 times, maybe more, I honestly didn't keep track so I don't know. I will say it to you one last time then I am moving on from you because having a "discussion" with a person who clearly has an issue with me is pointless because it really isn't a discussion. I will even separate it out so it's easy for you to see.

I BELIEVE THAT TODAY, LEON'S CONTRACT IS PAYING HIM IN THE RANGE OF 500-750K TOO MUCH.

I have repeated that statement as I said many, many, many times. I said that 8 mill was the absolute max I thought he would get. So no to answer your "challenge" I do not have ANY evidence that says its "team friendly" today. I would think that when I have said more than a dozen times I though he was overpaid and I gave a range of how much I think he is overpaid today would and your question but apparently not. So there you go, happy?

I have also said that I believe in Leon and given his age and the fact he is only 21 and hasn't even entered his prime yet as a player, that I hope that in short order, the contract will look just fine. I have said that statement probably a dozen times.

As a person, I like to think that I am a relatively level headed person who tries to see both sides of the issue. My job kind of needs me to do that a lot. So when I expressed my opinion that you have a problem with, I try to see both sides of the argument. So while today I think his contract is a bit high and I would have liked Leon's contract to have a 7 to start and be in the range of 7.5-8. But when you have a player making 12.5 mill on your team and you just gave him that contract a couple of weeks earlier and the overwhelming opinion on that contract from all people both in the organization, the fan base, the media and many outside of Edmonton is that its a good deal and McDavid left money on the table. I can understand to a degree how it would be pretty hard to say to Leon "you are a 5 mill a year less player in salary than McDavid." McDavid is a better player than Leon but he's not 5 mill better than Leon. Sorry there isn't anything you can say to me or show me that says that as a player Leon is worth 5 mill less than McDavid. As soon as McDavid signed for 12.5 EVERYONE gets a bump.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698993 is a reply to message #698991 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 09:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 08:36


I am not sure how many times I have said it since the deal was signed. Probably 10-15 times, maybe more, I honestly didn't keep track so I don't know. I will say it to you one last time then I am moving on from you because having a "discussion" with a person who clearly has an issue with me is pointless because it really isn't a discussion. I will even separate it out so it's easy for you to see.

I BELIEVE THAT TODAY, LEON'S CONTRACT IS PAYING HIM IN THE RANGE OF 500-750K TOO MUCH.




First off, I have no "issue with you". We tend to disagree on a lot of things Oilers related. I have said before that I appreciate the views you bring to the board and the discussion that often stems from those views.
You have to be aware at this point that if you are going to have strong opinions, and then state them with such aggression you will likely be met with a debate style that seems to anger you.
It seems to REALLY bother you when I, in your words, pick apart your posts. I am not doing it out of personal vendetta but you tend to have long posts with a lot of separate points so I find that the easiest way to address them.

In this case I think you cant have it both ways. You have defended this contract in that Chia did a good job but as you said you think it is too high. In a bigger picture you tend to give him a pass on deals that the vast majority see as not good deals (Russell, Drai, Eberle trade, Hall trade).
In my long multi quote post I was simply using this contract, given the thread we are in, to illustrate how it is not a good deal and in my opinion it is a great example of how Chia seems to be giving out player friendly deals that the majority of fans and media see as not good deals.

Again, I am not trying to be a jerk, this isnt personal. I was simply challenging you to find some reason why the rest of us should support Chia as strongly as you do. If I have offended I apologize.




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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698995 is a reply to message #698993 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 10:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 09:38

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 08:36


I am not sure how many times I have said it since the deal was signed. Probably 10-15 times, maybe more, I honestly didn't keep track so I don't know. I will say it to you one last time then I am moving on from you because having a "discussion" with a person who clearly has an issue with me is pointless because it really isn't a discussion. I will even separate it out so it's easy for you to see.

I BELIEVE THAT TODAY, LEON'S CONTRACT IS PAYING HIM IN THE RANGE OF 500-750K TOO MUCH.




First off, I have no "issue with you". We tend to disagree on a lot of things Oilers related. I have said before that I appreciate the views you bring to the board and the discussion that often stems from those views.
You have to be aware at this point that if you are going to have strong opinions, and then state them with such aggression you will likely be met with a debate style that seems to anger you.
It seems to REALLY bother you when I, in your words, pick apart your posts. I am not doing it out of personal vendetta but you tend to have long posts with a lot of separate points so I find that the easiest way to address them.

In this case I think you cant have it both ways. You have defended this contract in that Chia did a good job but as you said you think it is too high. In a bigger picture you tend to give him a pass on deals that the vast majority see as not good deals (Russell, Drai, Eberle trade, Hall trade).
In my long multi quote post I was simply using this contract, given the thread we are in, to illustrate how it is not a good deal and in my opinion it is a great example of how Chia seems to be giving out player friendly deals that the majority of fans and media see as not good deals.

Again, I am not trying to be a jerk, this isnt personal. I was simply challenging you to find some reason why the rest of us should support Chia as strongly as you do. If I have offended I apologize.



I make my posts long in an effort to try and get my point across. There seems to be a segment of posters in here who like to respond to my opinions, they like to pick them apart and when they pick them apart, it looks to me that they tend to keep asking me the same question over and over again in the hopes I slip up and change my story so they can call me a hypocrite. So I find myself having to continuously explain the same point in different ways.

Why is it that you feel that a person has to have a completely black or white opinion on something? In here it seems you either have to love it or hate it and god help you if you don't have the exact same opinion as a few more vocal posters in here. Why can't a person understand to a degree both sides, understand some of the reasons behind the decision and try to look for a positive? But because I don't hate Leon's contract and join people in calling Chia a bad GM who's a terrible negotiator and who's screwed the Oilers, that makes me wrong. I wish ALL players made less. I wish McDavid made 9.7. In the case of Leon, yes just like McDavid I wish Leon made less but again I can understand to a degree how it came to that number and I choose to make the best of it. I believe in the player and I believe that given his age and how good I think he is now and how good I think he will be in a year or 2, I think the contract can work out. I think Leon CAN be a 70+ pt, faceoff winning, big bodied, good 2 way, dominant center in the NHL. I think Leon can be the Oilers Malkin where everyone says "Wow, look at the Oilers 1-2 centers, they have the best centers in the league." For Leon the individual, I think he can become a guy that people say "If he was on any other team, he'd be their #1 center and he's be making 10+ easily. Man the Oilers are lucky they have him for 8.5, what a steal." That is what I hope happens. Do I have a crystal ball to see if it will or won't happen? Nope but I am keeping my fingers crossed. So while I do not expect you to agree with my opinion, I do not know why you say I can't take that approach of hoping for the best and seeing what actually happens vs taking the position that it is a terrible contract before he's even played a single second under it.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698998 is a reply to message #698995 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 11:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 10:43

PlusOne wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 09:38

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 08:36


I am not sure how many times I have said it since the deal was signed. Probably 10-15 times, maybe more, I honestly didn't keep track so I don't know. I will say it to you one last time then I am moving on from you because having a "discussion" with a person who clearly has an issue with me is pointless because it really isn't a discussion. I will even separate it out so it's easy for you to see.

I BELIEVE THAT TODAY, LEON'S CONTRACT IS PAYING HIM IN THE RANGE OF 500-750K TOO MUCH.




First off, I have no "issue with you". We tend to disagree on a lot of things Oilers related. I have said before that I appreciate the views you bring to the board and the discussion that often stems from those views.
You have to be aware at this point that if you are going to have strong opinions, and then state them with such aggression you will likely be met with a debate style that seems to anger you.
It seems to REALLY bother you when I, in your words, pick apart your posts. I am not doing it out of personal vendetta but you tend to have long posts with a lot of separate points so I find that the easiest way to address them.

In this case I think you cant have it both ways. You have defended this contract in that Chia did a good job but as you said you think it is too high. In a bigger picture you tend to give him a pass on deals that the vast majority see as not good deals (Russell, Drai, Eberle trade, Hall trade).
In my long multi quote post I was simply using this contract, given the thread we are in, to illustrate how it is not a good deal and in my opinion it is a great example of how Chia seems to be giving out player friendly deals that the majority of fans and media see as not good deals.

Again, I am not trying to be a jerk, this isnt personal. I was simply challenging you to find some reason why the rest of us should support Chia as strongly as you do. If I have offended I apologize.



I make my posts long in an effort to try and get my point across. There seems to be a segment of posters in here who like to respond to my opinions, they like to pick them apart and when they pick them apart, it looks to me that they tend to keep asking me the same question over and over again in the hopes I slip up and change my story so they can call me a hypocrite. So I find myself having to continuously explain the same point in different ways.

Why is it that you feel that a person has to have a completely black or white opinion on something? In here it seems you either have to love it or hate it and god help you if you don't have the exact same opinion as a few more vocal posters in here. Why can't a person understand to a degree both sides, understand some of the reasons behind the decision and try to look for a positive? But because I don't hate Leon's contract and join people in calling Chia a bad GM who's a terrible negotiator and who's screwed the Oilers, that makes me wrong. I wish ALL players made less. I wish McDavid made 9.7. In the case of Leon, yes just like McDavid I wish Leon made less but again I can understand to a degree how it came to that number and I choose to make the best of it. I believe in the player and I believe that given his age and how good I think he is now and how good I think he will be in a year or 2, I think the contract can work out. I think Leon CAN be a 70+ pt, faceoff winning, big bodied, good 2 way, dominant center in the NHL. I think Leon can be the Oilers Malkin where everyone says "Wow, look at the Oilers 1-2 centers, they have the best centers in the league." For Leon the individual, I think he can become a guy that people say "If he was on any other team, he'd be their #1 center and he's be making 10+ easily. Man the Oilers are lucky they have him for 8.5, what a steal." That is what I hope happens. Do I have a crystal ball to see if it will or won't happen? Nope but I am keeping my fingers crossed. So while I do not expect you to agree with my opinion, I do not know why you say I can't take that approach of hoping for the best and seeing what actually happens vs taking the position that it is a terrible contract before he's even played a single second under it.


I think you are reading too much into those of us that disagree with you.
Would you like it if we read your posts and replied "good opinion, I am proud of you for having it. I disagree but wont explain why. Please dont give me any more info than you have so far."

That doesnt sound like a discussion board. It sounds like when when you post an opinion you want people to A. Agree or B. not reply.
Sorry, that isnt how it works around here, not coincidentally it is why it is the only board I post on in spite of frequenting a half dozen or so.

If you would prefer I simply ignore your posts rather than discuss it but then it seems kind of odd for you to post in the first place.

To the issue at hand. It isnt black and white. My opinion on Chia is he seems really good at small trades, small signings but fails to some degree, small or large, on every big deal he pulls off.

It is much like my worry with McLellan. He seems good at game planning and motivating players. He doesnt seem good at in game adjustments or strategy.

With both leaders I see my concerns as a reason we may never see the Oilers turn the corner from preseason cup contender and regular season top team to actually becoming champions.





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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #699004 is a reply to message #698998 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 12:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 11:07

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 10:43

PlusOne wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 09:38

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 08:36


I am not sure how many times I have said it since the deal was signed. Probably 10-15 times, maybe more, I honestly didn't keep track so I don't know. I will say it to you one last time then I am moving on from you because having a "discussion" with a person who clearly has an issue with me is pointless because it really isn't a discussion. I will even separate it out so it's easy for you to see.

I BELIEVE THAT TODAY, LEON'S CONTRACT IS PAYING HIM IN THE RANGE OF 500-750K TOO MUCH.




First off, I have no "issue with you". We tend to disagree on a lot of things Oilers related. I have said before that I appreciate the views you bring to the board and the discussion that often stems from those views.
You have to be aware at this point that if you are going to have strong opinions, and then state them with such aggression you will likely be met with a debate style that seems to anger you.
It seems to REALLY bother you when I, in your words, pick apart your posts. I am not doing it out of personal vendetta but you tend to have long posts with a lot of separate points so I find that the easiest way to address them.

In this case I think you cant have it both ways. You have defended this contract in that Chia did a good job but as you said you think it is too high. In a bigger picture you tend to give him a pass on deals that the vast majority see as not good deals (Russell, Drai, Eberle trade, Hall trade).
In my long multi quote post I was simply using this contract, given the thread we are in, to illustrate how it is not a good deal and in my opinion it is a great example of how Chia seems to be giving out player friendly deals that the majority of fans and media see as not good deals.

Again, I am not trying to be a jerk, this isnt personal. I was simply challenging you to find some reason why the rest of us should support Chia as strongly as you do. If I have offended I apologize.



I make my posts long in an effort to try and get my point across. There seems to be a segment of posters in here who like to respond to my opinions, they like to pick them apart and when they pick them apart, it looks to me that they tend to keep asking me the same question over and over again in the hopes I slip up and change my story so they can call me a hypocrite. So I find myself having to continuously explain the same point in different ways.

Why is it that you feel that a person has to have a completely black or white opinion on something? In here it seems you either have to love it or hate it and god help you if you don't have the exact same opinion as a few more vocal posters in here. Why can't a person understand to a degree both sides, understand some of the reasons behind the decision and try to look for a positive? But because I don't hate Leon's contract and join people in calling Chia a bad GM who's a terrible negotiator and who's screwed the Oilers, that makes me wrong. I wish ALL players made less. I wish McDavid made 9.7. In the case of Leon, yes just like McDavid I wish Leon made less but again I can understand to a degree how it came to that number and I choose to make the best of it. I believe in the player and I believe that given his age and how good I think he is now and how good I think he will be in a year or 2, I think the contract can work out. I think Leon CAN be a 70+ pt, faceoff winning, big bodied, good 2 way, dominant center in the NHL. I think Leon can be the Oilers Malkin where everyone says "Wow, look at the Oilers 1-2 centers, they have the best centers in the league." For Leon the individual, I think he can become a guy that people say "If he was on any other team, he'd be their #1 center and he's be making 10+ easily. Man the Oilers are lucky they have him for 8.5, what a steal." That is what I hope happens. Do I have a crystal ball to see if it will or won't happen? Nope but I am keeping my fingers crossed. So while I do not expect you to agree with my opinion, I do not know why you say I can't take that approach of hoping for the best and seeing what actually happens vs taking the position that it is a terrible contract before he's even played a single second under it.


I think you are reading too much into those of us that disagree with you.
Would you like it if we read your posts and replied "good opinion, I am proud of you for having it. I disagree but wont explain why. Please dont give me any more info than you have so far."

That doesnt sound like a discussion board. It sounds like when when you post an opinion you want people to A. Agree or B. not reply.
Sorry, that isnt how it works around here, not coincidentally it is why it is the only board I post on in spite of frequenting a half dozen or so.

If you would prefer I simply ignore your posts rather than discuss it but then it seems kind of odd for you to post in the first place.

To the issue at hand. It isnt black and white. My opinion on Chia is he seems really good at small trades, small signings but fails to some degree, small or large, on every big deal he pulls off.

It is much like my worry with McLellan. He seems good at game planning and motivating players. He doesnt seem good at in game adjustments or strategy.

With both leaders I see my concerns as a reason we may never see the Oilers turn the corner from preseason cup contender and regular season top team to actually becoming champions.




Here is a sentence right from your post to me.

"In this case I think you cant have it both ways. You have defended this contract in that Chia did a good job but as you said you think it is too high. In a bigger picture you tend to give him a pass on deals that the vast majority see as not good deals (Russell, Drai, Eberle trade, Hall trade). "

In the first sentence that I cut and paste from your post, you are telling me directly that I can't have it both ways.
Can't is the short form of cannot. The definition of cannot is as follows:
verb
1.
an auxiliary verb expressing incapacity, inability, withholding permission, etc; can not

So you are telling me, an individual, that I am not allowed to think and feel a certain way on a topic because it is different from you. You can try to spin it anyway you want but as soon as you use the words "you can't ____" you are trying to dictate to a person how something is going to go based on the way you want it too go.

I honestly don't expect nor do I care if you agree or disagree with my opinion. If you want to ignore my posts, go for it. If you want to disagree with it and tell me why, go for it. Your call. You can list all the stats and arguments you want but unless I am lying about something, as soon as you shut down someones opinion and tell them they aren't allowed to think that way. It's not a debate.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #699009 is a reply to message #699004 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 13:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 12:28


Here is a sentence right from your post to me.

"In this case I think you cant have it both ways. You have defended this contract in that Chia did a good job but as you said you think it is too high. In a bigger picture you tend to give him a pass on deals that the vast majority see as not good deals (Russell, Drai, Eberle trade, Hall trade). "

In the first sentence that I cut and paste from your post, you are telling me directly that I can't have it both ways.
Can't is the short form of cannot. The definition of cannot is as follows:
verb
1.
an auxiliary verb expressing incapacity, inability, withholding permission, etc; can not

So you are telling me, an individual, that I am not allowed to think and feel a certain way on a topic because it is different from you. You can try to spin it anyway you want but as soon as you use the words "you can't ____" you are trying to dictate to a person how something is going to go based on the way you want it too go.

I honestly don't expect nor do I care if you agree or disagree with my opinion. If you want to ignore my posts, go for it. If you want to disagree with it and tell me why, go for it. Your call. You can list all the stats and arguments you want but unless I am lying about something, as soon as you shut down someones opinion and tell them they aren't allowed to think that way. It's not a debate.


Oh man, ou really want to be the "picked on guy" here that thinks the world is out to get you.

Clearly I said I THINK you cant have it both ways. I appreciate the English lesson and while I see how it may been vague it should be clear to most people with a high school education that I was saying the general "you" not you specifically.
By saying I think I was trying to make a point that in general an individual cant argue that a contract is too high and say Chia did a good job on it.

But, we are splitting hairs. Keep fighting the good fight. I am sure one day the world will learn to follow the mighty, all knowing RDOF and those of us that disagree will simply read, shake our heads in disbelieve of the hypocritical basis for most of your arguments and move on to the next post!





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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698981 is a reply to message #698978 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 16:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Goose wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:37

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 14:20


Is that how hockey player negotiation works though? You are asking a guy that believes he could be a 1st line player on other teams to play 2nd line on your team. So, how do you convince them to just accept being paid like a 2nd liner and stay with your team through the best years of his career? Players should have the right to ask to be paid what they think they are capable of, and it's up to the coaching staff how to use them to help the team win the most games. If you want a guy that would be the #1C on half or more of the teams in the NHL to play on your 2nd line, sorry, you still have to pay him like a #1C. Obviously both Drai and Chia are 100% sure Drai is a #1C based on the result of their negotiation, so it has to be true :)

I could see him lagging McDavid in EV ice time by 3 minutes or more per game because McLellan will be giving Nuge's line an equal push.


Paying him $7M or $7.5M is hardly paying him like a 2nd liner. Brayden Schenn has the 91st highest cap hit among forwards next year at $5.125M

As it is, he's being paid like an elite player. He had 27 PP points last year, so somewhere around 33-38 EVP to get to 60-65 next year if his PP production remains the same. That would put him between 60th and 103rd in EVP among forwards based on last year. That's bottom end 1st line to top end 2nd line production and not good enough imo for the 11th highest cap hit in the league.


I could be undercutting the EVP part a bit by ignoring what his PP production is expected to be. I suggested 2/3 of the 65 would be EVP, so that would be 43-44 points as my expectation. If he played 13-14 mins a night at even strength, that would be ~2.4 EVP/60 which would be around top 30 forward and top ~10 C (guys actually playing C) territory, based on last years scoring, which I think would be very reasonable. But then he only got ~21-22 PP points in that scenario.

Maybe I shoulda made the poll in EV scoring, or even EV scoring rate. Too late! And probably too complicated anyways :)

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 16:24]


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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698984 is a reply to message #698981 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 16:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:16


I could be undercutting the EVP part a bit by ignoring what his PP production is expected to be. I suggested 2/3 of the 65 would be EVP, so that would be 43-44 points as my expectation. If he played 13-14 mins a night at even strength, that would be ~2.4 EVP/60 which would be around top 30 forward and top ~10 C (guys actually playing C) territory, based on last years scoring, which I think would be very reasonable. But then he only got ~21-22 PP points in that scenario.

Maybe I shoulda made the poll in EV scoring, or even EV scoring rate. Too late! And probably too complicated anyways :)




For sure, I think that would be very good production for Drai next year. But at $8.5M he's not being paid to be very good.

I don't think it's a boat anchor of a contract. Drai is a very good player. But it's absolutely at the max or above what he should be paid. I think the odds of him outperforming that deal are pretty slim.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698985 is a reply to message #698984 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 17:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:50

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:16


I could be undercutting the EVP part a bit by ignoring what his PP production is expected to be. I suggested 2/3 of the 65 would be EVP, so that would be 43-44 points as my expectation. If he played 13-14 mins a night at even strength, that would be ~2.4 EVP/60 which would be around top 30 forward and top ~10 C (guys actually playing C) territory, based on last years scoring, which I think would be very reasonable. But then he only got ~21-22 PP points in that scenario.

Maybe I shoulda made the poll in EV scoring, or even EV scoring rate. Too late! And probably too complicated anyways :)




For sure, I think that would be very good production for Drai next year. But at $8.5M he's not being paid to be very good.

I don't think it's a boat anchor of a contract. Drai is a very good player. But it's absolutely at the max or above what he should be paid. I think the odds of him outperforming that deal are pretty slim.


That's where I am on this too.

It's not a trainwreck of a contract, but it's not a value contract in any way and it's one that the player is going to have a hard time living up to if he isn't playing on McDavid's wing.

I think with McDavid agreeing to a bit of a discount, the Oilers had the opportunity to push for discounts with other players as well, and I don't think they did a good job at that. They have given out top dollar (and term) deals to everyone else of importance that they signed this summer.

The weird thing is that despite being less of an underpay and a better bet at contract, I bet a struggling Leon Draisaitl would draw more heat than Kris Russell. If Drai has a 60-65 point year, I think you'll see a few people light their torches and sharpen their pitchforks.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698987 is a reply to message #698985 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 18:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 17:10

Goose wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:50

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:16


I could be undercutting the EVP part a bit by ignoring what his PP production is expected to be. I suggested 2/3 of the 65 would be EVP, so that would be 43-44 points as my expectation. If he played 13-14 mins a night at even strength, that would be ~2.4 EVP/60 which would be around top 30 forward and top ~10 C (guys actually playing C) territory, based on last years scoring, which I think would be very reasonable. But then he only got ~21-22 PP points in that scenario.

Maybe I shoulda made the poll in EV scoring, or even EV scoring rate. Too late! And probably too complicated anyways :)




For sure, I think that would be very good production for Drai next year. But at $8.5M he's not being paid to be very good.

I don't think it's a boat anchor of a contract. Drai is a very good player. But it's absolutely at the max or above what he should be paid. I think the odds of him outperforming that deal are pretty slim.


That's where I am on this too.

It's not a trainwreck of a contract, but it's not a value contract in any way and it's one that the player is going to have a hard time living up to if he isn't playing on McDavid's wing.

I think with McDavid agreeing to a bit of a discount, the Oilers had the opportunity to push for discounts with other players as well, and I don't think they did a good job at that. They have given out top dollar (and term) deals to everyone else of importance that they signed this summer.

The weird thing is that despite being less of an underpay and a better bet at contract, I bet a struggling Leon Draisaitl would draw more heat than Kris Russell. If Drai has a 60-65 point year, I think you'll see a few people light their torches and sharpen their pitchforks.



To me, Drai getting 65+ points (which would be a top 30 player in the NHL last season) while playing #2C would be a great sign that he could do what he did against the Ducks last playoffs, and it wasn't just a fluke. He can help make a line that the other team actually has to pay attention to and take some pressure off McDavid, and if they want to go all in on McDavid, Drai could make you pay with the opening.

Winning is what it's all about in the end, and if the Oilers have a good playoff run, I doubt many will be on Drai's butt for only being a top 30 producer in the league playing on the 2nd line. Maybe the analytics guys? But no one cares about them from the looks of it. McLellan had a funny comment today about how the analytics guys never show up to the rink. Maybe not even the analytics guys either though, since his scoring rates might end up looking pretty good, even if the totals aren't in a top 10 range.

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 18:32]


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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698988 is a reply to message #698987 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 19:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 18:31

Adam wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 17:10

Goose wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:50

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:16


I could be undercutting the EVP part a bit by ignoring what his PP production is expected to be. I suggested 2/3 of the 65 would be EVP, so that would be 43-44 points as my expectation. If he played 13-14 mins a night at even strength, that would be ~2.4 EVP/60 which would be around top 30 forward and top ~10 C (guys actually playing C) territory, based on last years scoring, which I think would be very reasonable. But then he only got ~21-22 PP points in that scenario.

Maybe I shoulda made the poll in EV scoring, or even EV scoring rate. Too late! And probably too complicated anyways :)




For sure, I think that would be very good production for Drai next year. But at $8.5M he's not being paid to be very good.

I don't think it's a boat anchor of a contract. Drai is a very good player. But it's absolutely at the max or above what he should be paid. I think the odds of him outperforming that deal are pretty slim.


That's where I am on this too.

It's not a trainwreck of a contract, but it's not a value contract in any way and it's one that the player is going to have a hard time living up to if he isn't playing on McDavid's wing.

I think with McDavid agreeing to a bit of a discount, the Oilers had the opportunity to push for discounts with other players as well, and I don't think they did a good job at that. They have given out top dollar (and term) deals to everyone else of importance that they signed this summer.

The weird thing is that despite being less of an underpay and a better bet at contract, I bet a struggling Leon Draisaitl would draw more heat than Kris Russell. If Drai has a 60-65 point year, I think you'll see a few people light their torches and sharpen their pitchforks.



To me, Drai getting 65+ points (which would be a top 30 player in the NHL last season) while playing #2C would be a great sign that he could do what he did against the Ducks last playoffs, and it wasn't just a fluke. He can help make a line that the other team actually has to pay attention to and take some pressure off McDavid, and if they want to go all in on McDavid, Drai could make you pay with the opening.

Winning is what it's all about in the end, and if the Oilers have a good playoff run, I doubt many will be on Drai's butt for only being a top 30 producer in the league playing on the 2nd line. Maybe the analytics guys? But no one cares about them from the looks of it. McLellan had a funny comment today about how the analytics guys never show up to the rink. Maybe not even the analytics guys either though, since his scoring rates might end up looking pretty good, even if the totals aren't in a top 10 range.


I think that comment by McLellan is flat-out stupid and ignorant. I'd say lots of them show up and watch hockey all the time. They aren't coming up with analysis out of nowhere, and if they weren't watching games, they wouldn't have the passion for it.

Reason there is no stats guys at the rink is because Edmonton media is a bunch of old boys who are more concerned with what the team is serving them, and whether they're allowed to go anywhere they want in the dressing room than any actual meaningful analysis. Because these guys don't have press passes doesn't make their analysis any less useful.

I don't think Oilers fans are as a whole a particularly good bunch of fans, and if Draisaitl drops 15 points in a year where he makes ~$6MM more, you can bet there will be a segment of fans who are vocally displeased. They won't consider the impact of playing less even strength minutes and not playing with McDavid, they'll only say he's making superstar money and putting up points like an in-his-prime Shawn Horcoff.

Winning in the playoffs cures all ills, but there's no guarantee that will happen. We take a team that didn't win last year, and we've made basically no improvements to it, so we better hope that 21 year old McDavid is a huge upgrade over 20 year old McDavid, and that the guy the management blows their brains out to get as a rental in March is able to be a big contributor.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698989 is a reply to message #698988 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 19:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 19:01

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 18:31

Adam wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 17:10

Goose wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 16:50

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 15:16


I could be undercutting the EVP part a bit by ignoring what his PP production is expected to be. I suggested 2/3 of the 65 would be EVP, so that would be 43-44 points as my expectation. If he played 13-14 mins a night at even strength, that would be ~2.4 EVP/60 which would be around top 30 forward and top ~10 C (guys actually playing C) territory, based on last years scoring, which I think would be very reasonable. But then he only got ~21-22 PP points in that scenario.

Maybe I shoulda made the poll in EV scoring, or even EV scoring rate. Too late! And probably too complicated anyways :)




For sure, I think that would be very good production for Drai next year. But at $8.5M he's not being paid to be very good.

I don't think it's a boat anchor of a contract. Drai is a very good player. But it's absolutely at the max or above what he should be paid. I think the odds of him outperforming that deal are pretty slim.


That's where I am on this too.

It's not a trainwreck of a contract, but it's not a value contract in any way and it's one that the player is going to have a hard time living up to if he isn't playing on McDavid's wing.

I think with McDavid agreeing to a bit of a discount, the Oilers had the opportunity to push for discounts with other players as well, and I don't think they did a good job at that. They have given out top dollar (and term) deals to everyone else of importance that they signed this summer.

The weird thing is that despite being less of an underpay and a better bet at contract, I bet a struggling Leon Draisaitl would draw more heat than Kris Russell. If Drai has a 60-65 point year, I think you'll see a few people light their torches and sharpen their pitchforks.



To me, Drai getting 65+ points (which would be a top 30 player in the NHL last season) while playing #2C would be a great sign that he could do what he did against the Ducks last playoffs, and it wasn't just a fluke. He can help make a line that the other team actually has to pay attention to and take some pressure off McDavid, and if they want to go all in on McDavid, Drai could make you pay with the opening.

Winning is what it's all about in the end, and if the Oilers have a good playoff run, I doubt many will be on Drai's butt for only being a top 30 producer in the league playing on the 2nd line. Maybe the analytics guys? But no one cares about them from the looks of it. McLellan had a funny comment today about how the analytics guys never show up to the rink. Maybe not even the analytics guys either though, since his scoring rates might end up looking pretty good, even if the totals aren't in a top 10 range.


I think that comment by McLellan is flat-out stupid and ignorant. I'd say lots of them show up and watch hockey all the time. They aren't coming up with analysis out of nowhere, and if they weren't watching games, they wouldn't have the passion for it.

Reason there is no stats guys at the rink is because Edmonton media is a bunch of old boys who are more concerned with what the team is serving them, and whether they're allowed to go anywhere they want in the dressing room than any actual meaningful analysis. Because these guys don't have press passes doesn't make their analysis any less useful.

I don't think Oilers fans are as a whole a particularly good bunch of fans, and if Draisaitl drops 15 points in a year where he makes ~$6MM more, you can bet there will be a segment of fans who are vocally displeased. They won't consider the impact of playing less even strength minutes and not playing with McDavid, they'll only say he's making superstar money and putting up points like an in-his-prime Shawn Horcoff.

Winning in the playoffs cures all ills, but there's no guarantee that will happen. We take a team that didn't win last year, and we've made basically no improvements to it, so we better hope that 21 year old McDavid is a huge upgrade over 20 year old McDavid, and that the guy the management blows their brains out to get as a rental in March is able to be a big contributor.


I do hope McLellan's comment was mainly playing to the crowd.

I think there is more opportunity for improvement than just a McDavid bump. I imagine McDavid's point totals will end up similar. Hopefully more to do with us riding his butt a little less than anything else. But if we go from a 2nd line C that puts up 40 points to one that can put up 65+, compete physically with the big C's of the west and win faceoffs, I think the team starts looking a lot deeper and more able to handle the kind of crap McDavid went through in the playoffs. Bonus if Nuge with JJ/JP can become a line able to actually take advantage of weak opposition. Benning and Nurse are opportunities for growth on D, as are Klef and Larsson still. Bonus too if LB is able to play 20+ games, or even a 15-20 range, and Talbot can get some rest.

Anyways, looks like I'm out to lunch with the consensus on the forum. Top 10 in the NHL points or bust for 8.5M Drai :)

[Updated on: Thu, 14 September 2017 20:27]


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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698990 is a reply to message #698989 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 00:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Leia  is currently offline Leia
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I'll be happy if he scores 20 points as long as it contributes to us winning the Cup.. Come July of next year if the cup is in our hands all will be forgotten (due to the sizeable hangovers we'll be recovering from).


With the remit of the poll though, I'd be happy with 60+. It won't be as easy for him next year, apart from being away from McDavid, he's a marked man now, teams will be trying to shut him down. I expect a drop from last year, but as long as someone like RNH picks up some of his drop off points, we'll be doing fine.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698992 is a reply to message #698989 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 09:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 18:12

Top 10 in the NHL points or bust for 8.5M Drai :)


I know you're being a bit tongue in cheek with that, but I actually don't frame it that way at all.

I see Drai as being one of the key pieces to the Oilers being successful this season, and it doesn't require him to score 80 points.

If he can drive a 2nd line that can share the load on taking on the tough competition, and break even or better on possession, and outscore their opposition (+GF%), then that will be a huge boost to the Oilers.

I think there's a real chance the Oilers (outside of McDavid), will struggle to score early in the season with Sekera out. Russell was a black hole for offence last year, especially without Sekera. So I think it's really important the 2nd line is holding their head above water (and part of that is Lucic rediscovering his form 5x5). If Drai has 5 EV points after 20 games and that line is at a 45% GF%, my biggest fear is that McLellan goes back to Drai on McDavid's wing and the secondary scoring goes away completely.

If, however, that 2nd line can score more than they give up (that's ultimately the goal after all), especially if they can do it against some tougher competition, that takes some pressure off both the McDavid and Nuge lines and maybe gives them a bit more room. And I think they can do that even if Drai is in the 50-55 point range (any lower than that and it probably gets a bit tough). To be fair I do expect he will score more than that.

That's totally separate from the discussion on salary though, which I put way more on Chiarelli than I do Drai. I fully expect him to get the best possible deal that he can (and did), and I fully expect the GM to get the best possible deal that he can (which, as evidenced by the Pastrnak deal and every other comp out there, he did not).



[Updated on: Fri, 15 September 2017 09:39]


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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698994 is a reply to message #698992 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 10:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Goose wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 09:32

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 18:12

Top 10 in the NHL points or bust for 8.5M Drai :)


I know you're being a bit tongue in cheek with that, but I actually don't frame it that way at all.

I see Drai as being one of the key pieces to the Oilers being successful this season, and it doesn't require him to score 80 points.

If he can drive a 2nd line that can share the load on taking on the tough competition, and break even or better on possession, and outscore their opposition (+GF%), then that will be a huge boost to the Oilers.

I think there's a real chance the Oilers (outside of McDavid), will struggle to score early in the season with Sekera out. Russell was a black hole for offence last year, especially without Sekera. So I think it's really important the 2nd line is holding their head above water (and part of that is Lucic rediscovering his form 5x5). If Drai has 5 EV points after 20 games and that line is at a 45% GF%, my biggest fear is that McLellan goes back to Drai on McDavid's wing and the secondary scoring goes away completely.

If, however, that 2nd line can score more than they give up (that's ultimately the goal after all), especially if they can do it against some tougher competition, that takes some pressure off both the McDavid and Nuge lines and maybe gives them a bit more room. And I think they can do that even if Drai is in the 50-55 point range (any lower than that and it probably gets a bit tough). To be fair I do expect he will score more than that.

That's totally separate from the discussion on salary though, which I put way more on Chiarelli than I do Drai. I fully expect him to get the best possible deal that he can (and did), and I fully expect the GM to get the best possible deal that he can (which, as evidenced by the Pastrnak deal and every other comp out there, he did not).




This is definitely a more complicated question than just dollars vs points. But, I think the expectation from fans here are pretty clear from the results.

I am in line with you on what would satisfy me, not including dollars. A 2nd line that can compete consistently, win their battle more often than not, simple as that. If Drai is on a 2nd line that can do that, the points will inevitably come, although, considering a likely drop in TOI, it will be lower than last season. But, it would still result in a better team. Some pressure it taken off McDavid, we can go into the playoffs with 2 lines that have been playing as such all year, and we don't have to just depend on Drai going on a tear playing C for the first time in months, he can be much more comfortable in his role could give consistent results.

In terms of money though, I kind of look at it a different way in how I will be satisfied. IMO, in 3 years, a top line C will be making at least 8-9M on new deals. When that happens, We will still have Drai locked in for 5 more years, as the cost of a #1C goes even higher. C's are also more valuable than wingers, especially one that can play wing on his offside like an elite winger when needed. Drai would probably be an even better LW, but we are loaded there for now. We keep comparing Drai to wingers, even ones and forget a guy like Johansen. Top line C's are very valuable. If Drai does produce at a rate of a top line C for us on the 2nd line, the value will be there in a few years. The key for me is that Drai does indeed produce at the rate of a top 15C on that 2nd line. If he does that, to me he will be worth his contract. A luxury of having 2 top line C's is something not many teams have, and I don't mind at all paying the price for that 2nd line one because he can fill in and play like a top line C when McDavid is hurt, and he can even jump up on the wing late in games for an extra push.

The key to all this of course is can Drai produce like a top line C, which is not yet known outside of a handful of playoff games and some time with Hall. Chia seems to have gone into negotiations fully believing he can. Can definitely debate how dumb that was, but in a few years, Drai and the market could make him look OK in the end.

[Updated on: Fri, 15 September 2017 10:10]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


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- #2, April 2015

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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698996 is a reply to message #698994 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 10:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 09:05


This is definitely a more complicated question than just dollars vs points. But, I think the expectation from fans here are pretty clear from the results.

I am in line with you on what would satisfy me, not including dollars. A 2nd line that can compete consistently, win their battle more often than not, simple as that. If Drai is on a 2nd line that can do that, the points will inevitably come, although, considering a likely drop in TOI, it will be lower than last season. But, it would still result in a better team. Some pressure it taken off McDavid, we can go into the playoffs with 2 lines that have been playing as such all year, and we don't have to just depend on Drai going on a tear playing C for the first time in months, he can be much more comfortable in his role could give consistent results.

In terms of money though, I kind of look at it a different way in how I will be satisfied. IMO, in 3 years, a top line C will be making at least 8-9M on new deals. When that happens, We will still have Drai locked in for 5 more years, as the cost of a #1C goes even higher. C's are also more valuable than wingers, especially one that can play wing on his offside like an elite winger when needed. Drai would probably be an even better LW, but we are loaded there for now. We keep comparing Drai to wingers, even ones and forget a guy like Johansen. Top line C's are very valuable. If Drai does produce at a rate of a top line C for us on the 2nd line, the value will be there in a few years. The key for me is that Drai does indeed produce at the rate of a top 15C on that 2nd line. If he does that, to me he will be worth his contract. A luxury of having 2 top line C's is something not many teams have, and I don't mind at all paying the price for that 2nd line one because he can fill in and play like a top line C when McDavid is hurt, and he can even jump up on the wing late in games for an extra push.

The key to all this of course is can Drai produce like a top line C, which is not yet known outside of a handful of playoff games and some time with Hall. Chia seems to have gone into negotiations fully believing he can. Can definitely debate how dumb that was, but in a few years, Drai and the market could make him look OK in the end.


I think I mostly agree with this if you look at Drai in isolation, but where it becomes a bit murkier is when you step back and look at the team picture and the potential implications.

Let's say Drai scores 60 points this year (maybe he scores 65, the actual number doesn't really matter in my scenario - bear with me). And RNH as the 3rd line centre scores 40. That's 100 pts between your #2/3 centres.

But the year after that, at least in part because Leon is making max dollars for his skillset, the Oilers have to move RNH and Strome fills in at #3C and scores 30 points (about where he was at with the NYI when he was a #3C), Leon needs to score 70 points to make up that gap in order to keep the production the same. I realize it doesn't need to be all on Leon, but for simplicity sake let's go with it.

The broader point I'm trying to make is that the reason I say that if you pay Leon as an elite player, he needs to produce like an elite player is that it will have implications throughout the lineup in terms of how much talent you are able to put in around him.

So while I think we agree on what would be a successful season for Leon in isolation, the implications of his salary on the team, go deeper than that. And they may not feel it this year because McDavid is the best deal in the NHL for one more season. But in subsequent years, it could definitely have an impact. And you're totally right in 3 or 4 years, it might not matter because the cap has gone up enough to cover for it. I think that the idea that the Oilers window closes after McDavid's deal kicks in is absurd, just look at the Penguins or Blackhawks. But it hinges on the cap continuing to go up, and even Chiarelli admitted there was risk in assuming that (although he clearly thinks it was a risk worth taking).



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #698997 is a reply to message #698996 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 11:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Goose wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 10:46

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 09:05


This is definitely a more complicated question than just dollars vs points. But, I think the expectation from fans here are pretty clear from the results.

I am in line with you on what would satisfy me, not including dollars. A 2nd line that can compete consistently, win their battle more often than not, simple as that. If Drai is on a 2nd line that can do that, the points will inevitably come, although, considering a likely drop in TOI, it will be lower than last season. But, it would still result in a better team. Some pressure it taken off McDavid, we can go into the playoffs with 2 lines that have been playing as such all year, and we don't have to just depend on Drai going on a tear playing C for the first time in months, he can be much more comfortable in his role could give consistent results.

In terms of money though, I kind of look at it a different way in how I will be satisfied. IMO, in 3 years, a top line C will be making at least 8-9M on new deals. When that happens, We will still have Drai locked in for 5 more years, as the cost of a #1C goes even higher. C's are also more valuable than wingers, especially one that can play wing on his offside like an elite winger when needed. Drai would probably be an even better LW, but we are loaded there for now. We keep comparing Drai to wingers, even ones and forget a guy like Johansen. Top line C's are very valuable. If Drai does produce at a rate of a top line C for us on the 2nd line, the value will be there in a few years. The key for me is that Drai does indeed produce at the rate of a top 15C on that 2nd line. If he does that, to me he will be worth his contract. A luxury of having 2 top line C's is something not many teams have, and I don't mind at all paying the price for that 2nd line one because he can fill in and play like a top line C when McDavid is hurt, and he can even jump up on the wing late in games for an extra push.

The key to all this of course is can Drai produce like a top line C, which is not yet known outside of a handful of playoff games and some time with Hall. Chia seems to have gone into negotiations fully believing he can. Can definitely debate how dumb that was, but in a few years, Drai and the market could make him look OK in the end.


I think I mostly agree with this if you look at Drai in isolation, but where it becomes a bit murkier is when you step back and look at the team picture and the potential implications.

Let's say Drai scores 60 points this year (maybe he scores 65, the actual number doesn't really matter in my scenario - bear with me). And RNH as the 3rd line centre scores 40. That's 100 pts between your #2/3 centres.

But the year after that, at least in part because Leon is making max dollars for his skillset, the Oilers have to move RNH and Strome fills in at #3C and scores 30 points (about where he was at with the NYI when he was a #3C), Leon needs to score 70 points to make up that gap in order to keep the production the same. I realize it doesn't need to be all on Leon, but for simplicity sake let's go with it.

The broader point I'm trying to make is that the reason I say that if you pay Leon as an elite player, he needs to produce like an elite player is that it will have implications throughout the lineup in terms of how much talent you are able to put in around him.

So while I think we agree on what would be a successful season for Leon in isolation, the implications of his salary on the team, go deeper than that. And they may not feel it this year because McDavid is the best deal in the NHL for one more season. But in subsequent years, it could definitely have an impact. And you're totally right in 3 or 4 years, it might not matter because the cap has gone up enough to cover for it. I think that the idea that the Oilers window closes after McDavid's deal kicks in is absurd, just look at the Penguins or Blackhawks. But it hinges on the cap continuing to go up, and even Chiarelli admitted there was risk in assuming that (although he clearly thinks it was a risk worth taking).


I think the only real disagreement we have is how a player needs to produce to match his salary. Just an analogy off the top of my head. Say you had 3 Gretzky's and you wanted to destroy the NHL by playing them on 3 different lines. When it comes to negotiate, do you have to pay them all the same? Or should line 2 Gretzky take a pay cut cause he's not going to produce like line 1 gretzky? Should line 3 Gretzky take even less because he will produce less than line 2 gretzky? In the NHL market, I think you have to pay all 3 the same thing, because they could get it elsewhere, even as RFA in an offer sheet world (we'll never know if Drai had one at the table talking with Chia). If you want your 3 gretzky luxury, gotta pony up and pay what the player is capable of, not what you expect them to produce in their role. If you don't want to pay that price, you can always trade 1 or 2 of them and try to fill your lineup out with other guys, but I'm not sure if you could do better in the end, accounting for potential injuries, and how you can stack a 2 or 3 gretzky line when needed :) If you have a healthy year, Gretzky 2 may and Gretzky 3 certainly will not have the numbers to live up to their salaries, but I think you should still be happy to have them.

Extreme example, and not exactly the same situation that we have, but I think it illustrates my point. And again, I fully concede that Drai hasn't proven he's a top line C yet, Chia is gambling on that. Only really talking about my own peace of mind in terms of Drai on our team living up to his deal, not trying to make excuses why Chia's gamble was good in the present.

[Updated on: Fri, 15 September 2017 11:05]


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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #699013 is a reply to message #698967 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 15:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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The contract that I struggle with the most in regards to Draisaitl is the one Filip Forsberg signed a year ago: $6M for each of the next 6.

Obviously not a direct comparison, but probably one of the better ones you'll find.

33 goals, 64 points in the summer he signed, age 21 at the time. And he did it without McDavid and while driving the offence on his line.

Honestly, it's probably a fair expectation for Draisaitl, but that production and expectation is easier to come to terms with at Forsberg's 6 as opposed to Draisaitl's 8.5

Those factors considered who would you rather have? Forsberg or Draisaitl.

Forsberg's numbers were down a little last year and there is not guarantee (in fact it might even be likely) that Draisaitl's numbers won't dip this year also. Hope I'm wrong but he put those high expectations on himself when he signed that deal.



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 Re: How many points does Drai need to earn 8.5M? [message #699014 is a reply to message #699013 ]
Fri, 15 September 2017 15:28 Go to previous message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 15 September 2017 15:10

The contract that I struggle with the most in regards to Draisaitl is the one Filip Forsberg signed a year ago: $6M for each of the next 6.

Obviously not a direct comparison, but probably one of the better ones you'll find.

33 goals, 64 points in the summer he signed, age 21 at the time. And he did it without McDavid and while driving the offence on his line.

Honestly, it's probably a fair expectation for Draisaitl, but that production and expectation is easier to come to terms with at Forsberg's 6 as opposed to Draisaitl's 8.5

Those factors considered who would you rather have? Forsberg or Draisaitl.

Forsberg's numbers were down a little last year and there is not guarantee (in fact it might even be likely) that Draisaitl's numbers won't dip this year also. Hope I'm wrong but he put those high expectations on himself when he signed that deal.


One thing I would say and I don't know 100% is does Forsberg ever play center? I know he is listed as a center/winger but I don't think he plays center very often if at all. So if he doesn't play center, I believe that plays a factor in the salary as I think centers are worth more than wingers unless you are Pat Kane or Ovechkin, then elite of the elite.

The big thing and this is just based on what I have heard over and over again (so no Adam or Plusone, I don't have a chart or a link) is McDavid's contract. Every time a player is signed, I keep hearing about the McDavid contract and everyone gets a bump because of it. So if McDavid signed last year, I think that any player who signed last year would have gotten more. Forsberg is a real good player but I don't think McDavid is twice as good as Forsberg so I wonder how much of a bump Forsberg would have got if he signed after McDavid.



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