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 Speculation » 2023 - The Summer of Ken
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 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824110]
Mon, 05 June 2023 16:22 Go to previous message
Adam is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6865
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
Thoughts and predictions on the summer?

It's not going to be the easiest one for the Oilers to make moves in. As we sit at the start of June, the team has $77,530,000 committed (https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers) with 9 forwards, 7 defence and 2 goalies counting. That probably is over-stating things slightly, since chances are good that Niemelainen isn't starting with the team in the Fall (although there could be some waiver ramifications there). If you include him, we have just under $6MM of cap space. Without him, it's closer to $7MM.

Our UFAs are Derek Ryan, Mattias Janmark, Devin Shore, Nick Bjugstad and Ryan Murray. Of those, I probably would only give Ryan a deal, and preferably a one-year pact at under $1MM. Everyone else is a replaceable part, so I'm only considering bringing back Janmark and Shore if they're dirt cheap and very short deals. I have to think Ryan Murray is likely retiring after yet another injury plagued season, and when he was in the lineup, he wasn't very good. It's worth noting that there was no indication the Oilers even thought of dressing him in place of Desharnais in the playoffs even though Desharnais was awful most of the post-season, and I believe Murray had a clean bill of health. Bjugstad is useful, but he's likely to get a decent number based on his regular season performance prior to coming to the Oilers and he was a non-factor in the post-season. Unless he's taking less than market value, I probably let him go.

RFAs are the bigger issue for the team. We have three: Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin & Evan Bouchard. McLeod is likely a relatively cheap bridge deal. Kostin probably comes back on an even smaller number (although given his possession stats, it's questionable whether he should). Bouchard - ideally, the Oilers find a way to sign him long-term. It would save them a lot of money in the long-run, even if it costs us more in the next two years. If they don't, he could be the next 8-figure salary on the team when this deal he's about to sign expires. If the playoffs were any indication, he's going to put up a ton of points the next couple years and he's going to make bank at some point.

The issue is that the Oilers don't have the cap space. If you got all of McLeod, Ryan and Kostin signed at an average of $1MM each, plus you sign or promote a couple of players at near league minimum for the 13th and 14th forwards, you have only about $4MM of cap space left. I don't think it's possible to sign Bouchard long-term for less than $5.5MM in an absolute best case scenario. It's probably more than that realistically.

If the Oilers want to make any big moves this summer, it means they need to trade away some salary. Yamamoto and Foegele are the most likely pieces being dangled, but I think the team needs to consider whether there's takers for Codi Ceci's contract (and how he could be replaced) as well as whether they could sell high now on Evander Kane.

With a Kane deal, you'd need to figure out how to replace his offence - we'd need to have a bead on another player who can play on the top two lines if he goes - but I think his piss-poor passing, his penchant for taking bad penalties and his sometimes disinterested defensive play make him expendable, while his burgeoning reputation as a guy who can play in the top six and "protect his linemates" will get him a value bump from some old school GM. I think you could make out really well in a trade for him this summer - and there's no guarantee that lasts, given how his stops with previous teams trended.

Finally, there's the goaltending. For me, I hate the idea of starting next season with Skinner/Campbell as the tandem again. The team is somewhat married to that, with $5MM/year to Campbell for the next four seasons, and $2.6MM per for Skinner for the next three. I think Campbell is unmovable though - he was awful last year and his contract is massive. It would probably involve making a harsher deal than the Oilers needed to do to move Kassian to get rid of him now. Buying him out is not super palatable given that it would mean a $1.5MM cap hit for the next eight years (with a couple of variations in years 2-4). Skinner might be easier to deal, and I'd definitely be considering it after his playoff meltdown unless the goalie scouts/coaches felt that there are some addressable issues that can be worked on. Again - we'd need to have someone coming back the other way (or at least concurrently) and we don't have a lot of money available for that.

As dreadful as that 8-year buyout is, I am leaning more and more towards thinking that might be the best route for the team rather than hoping blindly on a bounceback in an absolutely critical season next year.

With limited cap space, limited free agents and limited draft picks, there could be a temptation to bridge Bouchard & McLeod, sign Ryan and Kostin to short cheap deals, sign a couple more JAGs, and then get to the cabin early...you have to hope though that the management understands A) how key this coming season really is, and the consequences if they fall well short again, and B) where the team fell short this year, and what pieces are needed to get us over the hump moving forward.

I will say, if the rumours are true that Holland is preparing an exit, then it can't happen soon enough. It would be folly to have him operate through the summer and hand the reins over after all the money has already been spent. Given that it's already June and we've seen no confirmation, I don't believe that it's happening this year (unless the Oilers really are trying to bungle everything).



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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