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Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823917 is a reply to message #823916 ]	Wed, 24 May 2023 10:34

Kr55
Messages: 9804
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:25

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17

Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.

I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.

What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.

Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.

Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.

Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.

Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)

I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.

These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.

Over the course of the season goaltending reveals itself for sure, but I think over a playoff run it does too. Usually. I just don't think rolling the dice and hoping for luck or Jack Campbell to magically turn it around at max pressure is the best route to success. In hindsight Campbell should have been started in game 6, but that's only because the Oilers lost. I still would have to be convinced that he could handle a start (and we'll never know).

Here's a fun one: would you start Oettinger in Dallas tomorrow or whoever the backup is?

Wedgewood was complete poo for them in the times Oettinger was pulled, so don't think there would be a point with the series basically over. They don't have a better option. Try again next year, hope Oettinger keeps improving, find a better backup for next year.

I'd have started Campbell way before that game 6. Skinner's confidence was looking shaky back in the LA series. Think, at the latest, after his 2nd pull in the Vegas series and I think the 3rd time Campbell looked solid replacing Woodcroft should have taken the hint.

Not that uncommon to change courses with goalies when one guy is struggling bad. We got burned by a team that had their playoffs on the path to an early exit and decided to take a big gamble on changing goalies back in 2006 :( That goalie never again came close to playing like he did that year just to screw us over.

[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 10:37]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 10:57
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:26
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 19 May 2023 14:02
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: K.McC#24 on Sun, 21 May 2023 13:56
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Ragnarok73 on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:52
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:22
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Skookum Jim on Fri, 19 May 2023 15:41
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Fri, 19 May 2023 16:14
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Skookum Jim on Sat, 20 May 2023 01:49
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: nullterm on Sat, 20 May 2023 13:28
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Sun, 21 May 2023 16:13
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Sun, 21 May 2023 11:10
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Skookum Jim on Sun, 21 May 2023 21:44
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Sun, 21 May 2023 17:11
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Sun, 21 May 2023 21:14
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rowan Oil Fielding on Mon, 22 May 2023 16:32
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Mon, 22 May 2023 22:11
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Mon, 22 May 2023 23:40
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Mike on Tue, 23 May 2023 06:30
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:48
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:01
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:03
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:02
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:52
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:32
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:30
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 13:17
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: tardigrade81 on Wed, 31 May 2023 12:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 31 May 2023 12:56
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:38
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 15:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: smyth260 on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Jay on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:58
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 16:00
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:53
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:16
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:25
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:34
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:44
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:08
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:26
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:47
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 13:50
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 14:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:17
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:01
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:19
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:58
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:15
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Ragnarok73 on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:39
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Jay on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:43
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 25 May 2023 09:39
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Wed, 24 May 2023 17:14
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 25 May 2023 10:35
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rutuu on Thu, 25 May 2023 15:08
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 25 May 2023 15:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rutuu on Thu, 25 May 2023 18:07
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:10
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rowan Oil Fielding on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:45
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 17:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rutuu on Wed, 24 May 2023 18:15
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 25 May 2023 09:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Xombie on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:28
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:46
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Fri, 26 May 2023 09:54
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:54
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Goose on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:24
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 11:05
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Goose on Fri, 26 May 2023 11:15
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 12:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Mike on Fri, 26 May 2023 13:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Fri, 26 May 2023 14:35
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:13
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:37
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:46
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:49
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 30 May 2023 16:18
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 30 May 2023 15:57
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 30 May 2023 15:04
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 30 May 2023 16:01
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Xombie on Fri, 26 May 2023 15:34

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