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CrusaderPi Messages: 7668
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100
6 Cups
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48 |
CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21 |
Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17 |
Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.
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I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.
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What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.
Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.
Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.
Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.
Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)
I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.
These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.
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Over the course of the season goaltending reveals itself for sure, but I think over a playoff run it does too. Usually. I just don't think rolling the dice and hoping for luck or Jack Campbell to magically turn it around at max pressure is the best route to success. In hindsight Campbell should have been started in game 6, but that's only because the Oilers lost. I still would have to be convinced that he could handle a start (and we'll never know).
Here's a fun one: would you start Oettinger in Dallas tomorrow or whoever the backup is?
Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 May 2023 16:14 |
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