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 Kr55
Messages: 9804
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:16 |
| Kr55 wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48 |
| CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21 |
| Adam wrote on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17 |
Secondly, I don't actually believe that goalies are voodoo. I think there are teams that believe that because they don't have adequate resources spent on developing a better understanding of the position. We've seen teams that have long track records of finding and developing goaltenders. I think it comes down to scouting, player acquisition and then player development. If you have good people in those roles, I think you'd find that like anything else, there's an element of predictability to it.
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I've always felt large sample size goaltending is largely a function of team defense. I don't think Adin Hill wins the series for the Oilers.
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What's large? Playoffs are the shortest of samples for goalies, which is why you get random guys going on insane runs, then being garbage the next year, or the entire season before playoffs like Bobo this season.
Oilers got better chances the majority of our series with Vegas. One goalie was letting in almost every good chance against, the other was not. Sav% is historically a good measure of a goalies individual contribution. Can look deeper at high danger sav% and that type of thing to try to dig deeper. Good goalies can have good sav% on bad teams. That's why lots of people thought Ullmark would be a good pickup and boy did that (kinda) work out for Boston.
Hill has the 2nd best High danger sav% of the playoffs with 0.881. 2nd only to ... Jack Campbell with a tinier sample (wow, our defense was amazing for Jack only I guess). Bobo 5th. His stats are catching up after some wild games against Boston that sand bagged his godly run a bit.
Skinner sitting at 0.755. 18th in the playoffs.
Skinner was 0.831 in the regular season. Hill 0.828. Campbell 0.782 (sadly this is a pattern for his career that should have been a warning sign for any team with a good analytics department)
I mean, butterfly effect and all if Hill was an Oiler, you never know how the luck works out. Could have been terrible for us too. But, the stars are aligning for him in Vegas, like Bobo right now in Florida.
These playoffs are making Woodcroft look like such a dope for not trying Campbell.
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I buy into the whole "goalie is voodoo". I just looked at the list of goalies on Capfriendly and I have a hard time picking out 10 goalies who I would without a doubt be confident they will be good most games. Everyone has been talking about how great Oettinger is. He has had a pretty lousy playoff. So who knows.
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Maybe better to say playoff goaltending is voodoo. If you gathered all stats across playoffs you probably find some guys that have been consistently better than others, but for 4-7 game series, basically anything can happen. So many goalies in this league are capable of a 1-8 week hot run, probably 5 times the amount capable of a good regular season with 50+ games. Even Kosko had a crazy hot month or so, and we gave him 4.5Mx3 for it! If you sense you have that, think hard about trying to run with it, especially if the guy you thought was your starter is is playing like zero confidence junk.
[Updated on: Wed, 24 May 2023 10:22]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23 |
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