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 CrusaderPi
Messages: 7668
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100
6 Cups
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| RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26 |
Great. So how you all fitting that in for 8.5 mill or less? That's Drai's salary.
Leon's last 5 yrs.
82 GP - 50 - 105
71 GP (covid shut down but won the MVP and scoring title) 43 -110. Over 82, that's a 50-127 pace.
56 GP (covid yr) 31-84 - 45 123 pace
80 GP - 55-110
80 GP - 52 - 128
So if you average it out, over 82 games, he averages 50 goals, 119 pts.
A center to replace part of Drai. You can't replace what he does scoring completely. You are going for a cup so you want a very GOOD second line center so I think expecting 2/3 of his production for a second line center is reasonable. So in the 33 goal, 80 pt range. Schiefele does those numbers and is a good center and only makes 6. Horvat just resigned put up 38-70 and signed for 8.5. So take the middle 7.25 mill, round it off to 7 to replace a good chunk of Leon in a good second line center.
Ceci makes 3.25 mill. I agree, I think they need to upgrade him. He's a top 4 guy on a good deal but he's a #4 in my opinion. I think they need to find a better defender than Ceci for Nurse. I don't think they need a guy that produces a ton of points to play with Nurse. I think a guy like Oleksiak or Larsson are good examples of top 4, very good defending dmen who don't score a ton. Oleksiak makes 4.6, Larsson 4. Take the middle. 4.3 for Ceci's replacement. I don't see how you are getting an upgrade on Ceci for less.
So 7 for the center, 4.3 for the dman in your trade. So 11.3 so far.
First contract player - I assume for Leon you aren't taking some low end guy but a teams high end first contract guy. Round numbers, 900k.
12.2 mill for the center, dman and the first contract player.
Bunting type of player that is an arb guy. If you want an arb guy, I assume he was on ELC;s making squat, had a good year now wants a big raise. So maybe 1.5 mill to be low end? That's twice league min.
So now we are up to 13.7 and I would say that's being conservative to get all these good players on all these not overpriced deals. So Leon is gone and his 8.5 mill. Ceci I assume is gone. You have his replacement already so maybe you dump him for picks. So you are up to 11.75. Now you have to clear off another 2 mill min of contract to make your trade work.
So who else goes?
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Nurse, Nuge, Yammo, Ceci, Foegele, Campbell. A lot of options and a lot of ways to get better and cheaper. Selling high and moving on early are among the best. But don't worry about that, you're missing the forest for the trees.
The Oilers, should they trade Draisaitl, do not need to replace his offense. Honestly, they'd be better of if Draisaitl and McDavid didn't replace their own offense. The Oilers don't need to lead the league in GF by 20 while being middle in the pack in GA. If you look at the teams that scored 3.5 goals / game at were +30 or better on differential I think you'll see something of a sweat spot. Remember, they've shown they cannot rely on their scoring or their power play in the playoffs. Once the Oilers decide what they want to be they can figure out who gets them there.
Thinking about it, I think the best path forward is keeping the core for two years and figuring out how to make them score 40 fewer goals.
Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.
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