OilFans.com :: Fan Forum: Oilers => 2022-23 Post Mortem

Guest

This day on May 13
None

Happy Birthday To: Devon, Shauno99, TruckerD, WhoreableGuy, patd, Gino, oilergrl, Bo Dangles

OILERS INFO OILFANS
Monday, May 13, 2024 1:00 AM MT

F.A.Q.

Members

Home

Oilers » 2022-23 Post Mortem

Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem [message #823891 is a reply to message #823884 ]	Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3780
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23

Like I said before. You lose a Leon traded 100 times out of 100 in my opinion.

The point of a trade is to improve the team. Leon is a 50+ goal, 115+ pt, every year big, strong, good skating center that skates well, wins draws, kills penalties, elite PP player, drives a line and elevates his team mates. That's not a bias opinion by me, that's what he does and has the stats to back it up. He's beloved by his team, works his ass off in the offseason. He plays hurt, he shows up in the playoffs. He does all of this for 8.5 mill which is probably 4 mill under what he should make. AND he's in his prime years. So what he did this year and the previous ones are totals he will put up for many years to come. To replace not only his goals and points, his ability as a center, his ability on the special teams, you need 2 guys minimum. You aren't getting 2 guys who can maybe produce what Leon does AND do all the other things for 8.5 mill. You aren't and in all likelihood, you don't get the same quality of play.

No team that is looking to bring in Leon to put them over the top, is going to give you a bunch of right now real good roster players because it will dilute their team. If they did, all they did was bring in Leon to go play on a worse team than before the trade. So you MIGHT get 1 decent roster player, then a bunch of picks and prospects with the hope that the prospect might be good in a couple of years to make the trade "a win". But when you are in a cup win mode, dumping players for futures is stupid. If you trade him to a bad team, you are getting a bad teams crap back or again a bunch of picks and prospects hoping that in a few years, those work out. Either way, if the goal is to win the cup in the next 2 seasons, you lose a Leon trade every single time. For a site and people that continuously bring up bad trades where the Oilers lost, I am baffled how people in here would float out a trade that in all likelihood they lose badly.

When it comes to Skinner. They have a homegrown, loves the market, under contract for 3 seasons goalie who just played 50 games for you and played at an above average level. So even if he drops off a little next year, at the worse is a very good backup easily capable of giving you 35 starts of decent goaltending which in the NHL, every team desperately needs. Good goaltending is a struggle for most NHL teams and you have a guy who can give you good goaltending at minimum as a back up signed for an affordable deal. So again, you lose this trade in all likelihood very badly because goalies don't have the same value as position players in trades generally AND then you have to go find a guy to replace him which in a league that lacks good goalies, is hard to do.

If you want to make a change to the core to shake it up with a player coming off a HIGH season. Trade Nuge. Sure his playoffs wasn't the greatest but he had 11 pts in 12 games, so on paper, it doesn't look that bad. He can play center or wing. He can play all your special teams and do a good job, PP especially. Good skater, good guy, never complains. Just scored 37 goals, 104 pts (totals he won't ever come close too again probably but don't tell anyone that). He's got a longer term deal but at 5.125 mill for a legit top 6 forward capable of scoring 25-30, 60+ pts. It's a bargain deal. Would it be a loss to the team? Yes but when you have McD and Leon, if you take out this one off season, you can replace what Nuge normally scores fairly easily. You can find a 25 goal scorer for what Nuge makes or less when you have one of the Oilers 2 centers feeding him pucks. You can give Nuge's PK time to someone else and not have it fall off. Not that the Oilers PK is that great.

So if you want to shock the team to it's core, that would be a bold trade where you don't automatically lose it. You can win a Nuge trade.

You're entirely missing the point. It's not about shaking up the core or winning a trade. It's about questioning whether or not the Oilers can win the Cup with McDavid and Draisaitl. BUT even if it was about shaking up the core and winning a trade now is the time to ask the question simply because of the time left on his contract. Frankly, it needs to be asked.

Now if you think, upon due consideration, that the Oilers have a reasonable shot at winning the cup in the next two years I absolutely accept that a Draisaitl trade is a no go. Smyth260 said he'd risk losing Drai for nothing for a chance to win the cup before 2025. I think that's a prudent course of action... if you think they can win the cup. Hell, if you've accepted playoff mediocrity because you pragmatically think this is the best we'll get to watch I'll even grudgingly accept that (although I'd disagree).

I will humor you.

So you feel the Oilers don't have a shot to win the cup with McD and Leon. So what's a trade of Leon that you think improves them?

No, I don't. I think recent history lends credence to this viewpoint and creates a stronger argument that they aren't properly assembled to win in the playoffs.

What's a trade? I'd start with looking for 5 assets. A center to replace part of Draisaitl, a defenseman to improve Ceci, a first contract / arb ineligible NHL player like Bunting two years ago, and a couple of prospects or picks to use at the deadline. Now, I don't know that a trade like that exists, but I'd certainly try to find out if it does.

Keep in mind I would never just trade any player especially Draisaitl (especially next summer). But I certainly would establish what my expected trade value would be and see how close or how much more I can get.

Great. So how you all fitting that in for 8.5 mill or less? That's Drai's salary.
Leon's last 5 yrs.
82 GP - 50 - 105
71 GP (covid shut down but won the MVP and scoring title) 43 -110. Over 82, that's a 50-127 pace.
56 GP (covid yr) 31-84 - 45 123 pace
80 GP - 55-110
80 GP - 52 - 128

So if you average it out, over 82 games, he averages 50 goals, 119 pts.

A center to replace part of Drai. You can't replace what he does scoring completely. You are going for a cup so you want a very GOOD second line center so I think expecting 2/3 of his production for a second line center is reasonable. So in the 33 goal, 80 pt range. Schiefele does those numbers and is a good center and only makes 6. Horvat just resigned put up 38-70 and signed for 8.5. So take the middle 7.25 mill, round it off to 7 to replace a good chunk of Leon in a good second line center.

Ceci makes 3.25 mill. I agree, I think they need to upgrade him. He's a top 4 guy on a good deal but he's a #4 in my opinion. I think they need to find a better defender than Ceci for Nurse. I don't think they need a guy that produces a ton of points to play with Nurse. I think a guy like Oleksiak or Larsson are good examples of top 4, very good defending dmen who don't score a ton. Oleksiak makes 4.6, Larsson 4. Take the middle. 4.3 for Ceci's replacement. I don't see how you are getting an upgrade on Ceci for less.

So 7 for the center, 4.3 for the dman in your trade. So 11.3 so far.

First contract player - I assume for Leon you aren't taking some low end guy but a teams high end first contract guy. Round numbers, 900k.

12.2 mill for the center, dman and the first contract player.

Bunting type of player that is an arb guy. If you want an arb guy, I assume he was on ELC;s making squat, had a good year now wants a big raise. So maybe 1.5 mill to be low end? That's twice league min.

So now we are up to 13.7 and I would say that's being conservative to get all these good players on all these not overpriced deals. So Leon is gone and his 8.5 mill. Ceci I assume is gone. You have his replacement already so maybe you dump him for picks. So you are up to 11.75. Now you have to clear off another 2 mill min of contract to make your trade work.

So who else goes?

Report message to a moderator

2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 10:57
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:33
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:16
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:26
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 19 May 2023 14:02
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: K.McC#24 on Sun, 21 May 2023 13:56
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Ragnarok73 on Fri, 19 May 2023 12:52
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 19 May 2023 13:22
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Skookum Jim on Fri, 19 May 2023 15:41
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Fri, 19 May 2023 16:14
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Skookum Jim on Sat, 20 May 2023 01:49
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: nullterm on Sat, 20 May 2023 13:28
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Sun, 21 May 2023 16:13
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Sun, 21 May 2023 11:10
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Skookum Jim on Sun, 21 May 2023 21:44
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Sun, 21 May 2023 17:11
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Sun, 21 May 2023 21:14
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rowan Oil Fielding on Mon, 22 May 2023 16:32
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Mon, 22 May 2023 22:11
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Mon, 22 May 2023 23:40
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Mike on Tue, 23 May 2023 06:30
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 08:35
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:48
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:39
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:01
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:03
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:02
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 09:52
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:32
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:09
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:30
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:26
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 23 May 2023 13:17
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: tardigrade81 on Wed, 31 May 2023 12:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 31 May 2023 12:56
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:05
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:38
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 15:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: smyth260 on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 10:32
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Jay on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 11:58
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:18
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Tue, 23 May 2023 12:31
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 23 May 2023 16:00
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:53
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 00:17
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 08:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:48
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:16
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:25
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:34
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 10:44
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:08
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:26
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 11:47
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 12:58
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 13:50
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 14:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:17
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:23
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:01
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:44
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 15:52
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:05
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:19
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:58
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:15
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Ragnarok73 on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:39
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Adam on Wed, 24 May 2023 22:55
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Jay on Wed, 24 May 2023 16:43
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 25 May 2023 09:39
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Wed, 24 May 2023 17:14
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 25 May 2023 10:35
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rutuu on Thu, 25 May 2023 15:08
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 25 May 2023 15:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rutuu on Thu, 25 May 2023 18:07
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 23 May 2023 19:10
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rowan Oil Fielding on Wed, 24 May 2023 09:45
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Wed, 24 May 2023 17:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Rutuu on Wed, 24 May 2023 18:15
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 25 May 2023 09:42
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Xombie on Thu, 25 May 2023 23:06
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:25
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Kr55 on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:28
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 08:46
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Fri, 26 May 2023 09:54
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:54
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Goose on Fri, 26 May 2023 10:24
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 11:05
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Goose on Fri, 26 May 2023 11:15
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 26 May 2023 12:21
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Mike on Fri, 26 May 2023 13:36
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Fri, 26 May 2023 14:35
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:13
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:37
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:46
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 30 May 2023 14:49
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: inverno76 on Tue, 30 May 2023 16:18
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 30 May 2023 15:57
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 30 May 2023 15:04
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 30 May 2023 16:01
Re: 2022-23 Post Mortem	By: Xombie on Fri, 26 May 2023 15:34

Previous Topic: Oilers acquire F Jayden Grubbe from NYR
Next Topic: Oiler Draft Memory Lane..
Oilers NHL Minors Speculation For Sale

Copyright © OilFans.com 1996-2022.
All content is property of OilFans.com and cannot be used without expressed, written consent from this site.
Questions, comments and suggestions can be directed to oilfans@OilFans.com
Privacy Statement

Hosted by LogicalHosting.ca