Adam wrote on Mon, 08 May 2023 14:56

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 08 May 2023 13:54 RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 08 May 2023 11:28 Wow Leafs, just wow! I think the biggest difference between the Leafs and Oilers and is something the Leafs have to addressed for them to ever move forward is their make up and more specifically their star players. You can have all the depth you want but if your stars don't show up, you won't play. They got 2 goals from depth guys and nothing from their stars and they lost. I saw a tweet from Dom Luszcyszyn who lots on the stats community like to look too for his "model". He's a Leafs fan and has always said Leafs guys are better than Oilers based on his model. He tweeted Leon is better than Matthews based on the play and his adjusted model. You don't say! You just figured that out now huh. Dom still has the Leafs with a 9% shot to win! In history, 4 teams out of 204 have pulled it off. The need for perfection 4 games in a row after you've already shown you kinda suck against your opponent (Leafs had a stinker IMO in game 3 for the most recent evidence) is quite an ask. Don't think the Leafs have just the goaltending alone to pull it off. Well, if they did come back, they'd have a decent chance of winning it all still. I mean, if everyone was at 12.5% at the start of the round, 9% is showing a significant reduction...especially since I believe his models had the Leafs as the best chance going in to the series. Presumably the model doesn't really believe in the Panthers as a legitimate threat to win the Cup. - Maple Leafs in 1942 won the Cup - they were down 0-3 in the Finals. - Islanders in 1975 had their comeback in the second round, and then came within one game of the Finals, losing to the eventual champion Flyers in 7 games. - The Flyers comeback in 2010 also happened in Round 2, and they made it all the way to the Finals before they lost to Chicago. - The Kings were the only first round comeback, and they went all the way and won the Cup. So if they DO come back, from the looks of it, they'd have a pretty good shot of going deep... I don't think they will. I think they could be done tomorrow night. But it's not out of the realm of possibility. I do think that there's some issues with that model that are becoming evident though - the Flames chances staying so strong right up until their elimination showed that, and this probably is more evidence. For what it's worth, I don't think he's cooking the numbers to show favourably to his preferred teams though. I think when the Flyers beat the Bruins they went a couple rounds and then were out.

I imagine an average team by his model would be sitting around 2-3% to come back from 0-3. Probably the same kind of favoring at work that had the Lames with a great shot at playoffs when they were back half a dozen points or so (how they proceeded to choke a game vs the Coyotes really messed that all up).

Dom has some work to do I think. His individual player models had some wild results. Like Giordano being calcuated as providing 7.2M of value, a 6.3M surplus! But...he was playing 3rd pair minutes against the weak comp. How the heck do you believe someone is providing 7.2M of value when you only have that to go off? Lots of headscratchers like that.

I don't think he's favoring too much. Although what you put value on can just have some inherent bias. Saw that with those Evolving Wild bros that somehow had all their models set up so that Nino Niederreiter and various other wild players looked like gods, which happened to lead to 26 point Nichushkin being a Hart candidate playing 10-15 mins a night (a lot like the Giordano result Dom got), and Drai being the worst defensive player of all time.

[Updated on: Mon, 08 May 2023 15:22]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
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