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Speculation » Puljujarvi's Extension

Re: Puljujarvi's Extension [message #809748 is a reply to message #808823 ]	Tue, 05 July 2022 01:12

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

I've seen people, here and in other places, use Nichushkin as a comparable to Puljujarvi, both as a reason to sign Puljujarvi as they are on a similar career trajectory and as an indication that Puljujarvi is going to break out, but also as a salary comp and a indicator that the Oilers should pay him in the $2.5M range.

Nichushkin signed his most recent deal as an RFA in 2020 after scoring 13G/27pts in 65 games. I believe that the 1st year of that deal was an RFA and the 2nd was an UFA year, but I'm not going to look into it that closely, so feel free to correct me if I'm incorrect. Puljujarvi has 2 years of RFA status left, (again, I think. I'm not going to spend that much time on it), and is coming off of a 14G/36pts in 65 game season. So from that perspective the 2 players look pretty similar.

However, as I mentioned, Nichushkin signed his deal in 2020. I'm not sure that the market is the same as it was back then. I'm on the record as saying that I think that the Oilers would be smart to sign Puljujarvi to a longer term (~5 year), deal in the $4M range. And that's not because I hope he will be a 25 goal scorer at some point in the future. It's because I think he's likely worth about that money now, and if he does turn into a 25 goal scorer then that deal becomes really good value.

I've tried to look at this as objectively as possible, so I pulled all the RFA forwards that signed deals over the past season, and filtered for contracts between $2.5MM - $5MM in value.

Denis Gurianov (25) - 1 year/$2.9M AAV. Last season scored 11G/31pts in 73 games. If the Oilers want to sign Puljujarvi to a one year RFA deal, this is probably the benchmark (although Puljujarvi is slightly higher given their comparative production), but I think there's more risk there for the Oilers than there is for Puljujarvi. All of his numbers are trending up and this past season he dealt with Covid and an injury and still outperformed Gurianov's #'s.

Jack Roslovic (25) - 2 years/$4M AAV. 1 RFA/1 UFA year. Scored 22G/45pts in 81 games in what was a career year for Roslovic (note Jesse's pro-rated numbers from last year were 18G/45pts in 82 games). If the Oilers want to buy any UFA years from Puljujarvi (and I strongly think that they should), this is probably a pretty good comparable and why I feel like $4M isn't an egregious overpay.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (21) - 8 years/$4.82M AAV. This one is a bit of an outlier in terms of price for performance as Kotkaniemi is coming off of a 12G/29pts in 66 games season. Clearly the Hurricanes are paying for potential here, but this is also a contract that is out there, and one that Puljujarvi's camp would be using in negotiations.

Jake Debrusk (25) - 2 years/$4M AAV. 25G/42pts in 77 games this year after a down year the year before. This is another 1RFA/1 UFA contract. Debrusk is a more proven goal scorer at this point but I don't think he's nearly as good defensively at Puljujarvi.

Jared McCann (25) - 5 years/$5MM AAV. 27G/50 pts in 74 games last season. If the Oilers decide to go short term with Puljujarvi this year, I think there's a very good chance that this is what they're looking at for future contracts.

Jordan Greenway (25) - 3 years/$3MM AAV. 10G/27pts in 62 games last year. 6G/32pts in 56 games the year before. He signed this deal in January, so that may have held more weight. Regardless, this is likely the lowest that I think the Oilers could possibly get Puljujarvi to sign on any deal that includes any UFA years, and that's a pretty big stretch given Puljujarvi's higher production.

Based on the above, particularly the Roslovic and Greenway's deals, I think that there's a decent argument to be made that Puljujarvi at $4M for 4-5 years in today's market is a fair contract and that's before you factor in his defensive play and his exceptional underlying numbers:

56% CF% / 57% SCF% / 50% GF% / 56% xGF% in 133 min without McDavid/Draisaitl on the ice.

I probably don't need to tell this group that numbers for the rest of the team without one of those 3 on the ice are much worse.

Jesse Puljujarvi is a good hockey player and if the Oilers are going to move on from him, I hope that it's for a deal that makes sense. I've seen Connor Brown's name thrown around and I just don't get it. It's a better deal than getting a 2nd round pick but Mark Spector is out there calling Puljujarvi a "playkiller". Connor Brown only scored 10 goals last year. Yes he had 21 in 56 games the year before, but he also shot 17%. His shooting percentages in his 3 years in OTT are 9.2%/17.1%/8.3% and his career average is 11.7%. I'm pretty sure I know which one of those is the outlier. He's 4 years older than Puljujarvi and has one more season at $3.6M before becoming a UFA. Best case scenario, the Oilers save around $400k compared to what they might have to pay Puljujarvi on a longer deal (or actually pay a bit more vs what they might be able to get Jesse on a 1-2 year deal), and then Brown comes in and has a great year and they can't afford his next contract anyways. I don't see how that trade benefits the Oilers really in the short or long term.

Like a lot of people on here, I don't think the Oilers should sign Puljujarvi no matter the cost. But, man, I think that the team misses him if he's not here next year.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20 212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=5v5&s core=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy &loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-10-12&td=2022-05- 01&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479344&p2=847840 2&p3=8477934&p4=0&p5=0

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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Puljujarvi's Extension	By: AndersonRules on Fri, 10 June 2022 14:20
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Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Mon, 04 July 2022 20:12
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: PlusOne on Mon, 04 July 2022 20:22
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Tue, 05 July 2022 01:12
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 09:37
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 09:43
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 09:48
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:52
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:56
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:58
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:00
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:10
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: smyth260 on Tue, 05 July 2022 09:44
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 09:50
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:01
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:11
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 10:19
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:14
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:16
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:35
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:50
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:53
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:00
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:05
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:51
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:56
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:07
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 05 July 2022 11:57
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: AndersonRules on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:11
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:21
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:29
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 05 July 2022 12:59
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Tue, 05 July 2022 13:05
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 14:28
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:17
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Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 05 July 2022 14:51
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:02
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:22
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Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 16:00
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Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:59
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Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrudeRemarks on Tue, 05 July 2022 19:17
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Tue, 05 July 2022 19:48
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 06 July 2022 08:20
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Wed, 06 July 2022 10:29
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Wed, 06 July 2022 10:42
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Wed, 06 July 2022 10:54
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Wed, 06 July 2022 10:57
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Wed, 06 July 2022 11:12
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 06 July 2022 11:43
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Wed, 06 July 2022 12:30
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Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: AndersonRules on Tue, 05 July 2022 19:21
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:04
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:33
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 05 July 2022 15:46
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Wed, 06 July 2022 09:19
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: smyth260 on Wed, 06 July 2022 09:25
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 06 July 2022 09:40
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 06 July 2022 09:46
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Wed, 06 July 2022 09:47
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 06 July 2022 09:53
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 06 July 2022 10:27
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Wed, 06 July 2022 11:37
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Wed, 06 July 2022 11:50
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Tue, 12 July 2022 19:41
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Tue, 12 July 2022 20:27
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Skookum Jim on Sun, 17 July 2022 10:53
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Skookum Jim on Sun, 17 July 2022 16:36
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Mon, 18 July 2022 08:32
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Mon, 18 July 2022 08:45
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Mon, 18 July 2022 09:13
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Mon, 18 July 2022 09:41
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Mon, 18 July 2022 09:49
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Mon, 18 July 2022 10:04
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: PlusOne on Mon, 18 July 2022 16:21
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: GabbyDugan on Mon, 19 September 2022 12:16
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:20
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Mon, 18 July 2022 12:47
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: PlusOne on Sat, 24 September 2022 19:42
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Sat, 24 September 2022 21:12
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: nullterm on Sun, 25 September 2022 00:38
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: PlusOne on Sun, 25 September 2022 18:16
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Mon, 26 September 2022 09:29
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Goose on Mon, 26 September 2022 11:10
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Mike on Mon, 26 September 2022 12:25
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Mon, 26 September 2022 13:22
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: nullterm on Tue, 22 November 2022 23:57
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 23 November 2022 08:31
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: smyth260 on Mon, 16 January 2023 15:58
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: K.McC#24 on Tue, 17 January 2023 14:15
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 17 January 2023 14:38
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Babaganoosh2.0 on Tue, 17 January 2023 16:36
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: K.McC#24 on Tue, 17 January 2023 17:03
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Wed, 18 January 2023 07:44
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Wed, 18 January 2023 08:05
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 18 January 2023 10:58
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Wed, 18 January 2023 14:14
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 18 January 2023 14:33
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Wed, 18 January 2023 23:02
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Wed, 18 January 2023 23:15
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 19 January 2023 08:27
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Thu, 19 January 2023 09:40
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 19 January 2023 09:45
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Thu, 19 January 2023 09:54
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 19 January 2023 10:05
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 19 January 2023 10:20
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Thu, 19 January 2023 10:35
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 19 January 2023 10:42
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Thu, 19 January 2023 12:15
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 19 January 2023 12:46
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 19 January 2023 12:50
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 19 January 2023 12:59
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Thu, 19 January 2023 13:25
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Thu, 19 January 2023 13:45
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 19 January 2023 14:41
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 19 January 2023 15:12
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 19 January 2023 15:28
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: NCREDiBLE on Thu, 19 January 2023 17:48
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Thu, 19 January 2023 21:01
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 19 January 2023 21:19
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Thu, 19 January 2023 21:41
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Thu, 19 January 2023 22:46
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: inverno76 on Thu, 19 January 2023 22:51
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: NCREDiBLE on Mon, 23 January 2023 00:02
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Thu, 09 February 2023 18:03
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Thu, 09 February 2023 18:40
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: K.McC#24 on Thu, 09 February 2023 19:13
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Thu, 09 February 2023 20:07
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 10 February 2023 11:31
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Dragon_Matt on Fri, 10 February 2023 13:49
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: CrusaderPi on Fri, 10 February 2023 14:06
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 10 February 2023 14:26
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Kr55 on Fri, 17 February 2023 11:25
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Adam on Fri, 17 February 2023 16:34
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: nullterm on Fri, 17 February 2023 18:05
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Skookum Jim on Sat, 18 February 2023 18:49
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: NetBOG on Sat, 18 February 2023 19:02
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: nullterm on Sun, 19 February 2023 01:40
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Skookum Jim on Sun, 19 February 2023 17:24
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: nullterm on Sun, 19 February 2023 23:44
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: Oscargasm on Sun, 19 February 2023 08:47
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Wed, 22 February 2023 08:44
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: AndersonRules on Thu, 23 February 2023 12:07
Re: Puljujarvi's Extension	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 23 February 2023 13:57

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