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Oilers » 2021 Training Camp thread

Re: 2021 Training Camp thread [message #792620 is a reply to message #792604 ]	Thu, 07 October 2021 09:04

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3705
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 06 October 2021 15:27

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 06 October 2021 15:18

Adam wrote on Wed, 06 October 2021 14:47

https://theathletic.com/2867685/2021/10/06/lowetide-when-wil l-the-edmonton-oilers-fully-embrace-analytics/

Lowetide scorches the Oilers management and their failure to use the tools available to them.

Quote:

A trade Holland made 16 days before the Bear-Foegele deal shows us the Oilers don’t use analytics in a way more sophisticated teams currently value information.

The deal in question is the one that brought Duncan Keith to Edmonton from the Chicago Blackhawks.

When analytics isn’t in the room
A week before the Keith trade, I wrote about the possible return for The Athletic, writing, “I think fair value is Edmonton dealing Caleb Jones for Keith and a first-round selection to cover the $5 million cap hit.”

The actual trade ignored the massive cap total coming Edmonton’s way, and further devalued Jones by throwing in a draft pick to make the deal whole for Chicago.

There isn’t a hockey analytics department on planet earth with a workable computer that would recommend the Keith-Jones deal as it went down.

The Oilers analytics department is in the room for some or none of the transactions made by Edmonton. There’s simply no other conclusion that can be drawn based on the value placed by Edmonton on $5 million in cap and Jones.

The Toronto Maple Leafs gave up a first-round selection in order to move Patrick Marleau in 2019; an analytics department in the room would have pointed it out.

...

Adapting to proven innovation is important to a team remaining competitive and there is a middle ground between rejecting analytics completely and making it a central theme in all transactions.

NHL teams have access to mountains of data and intel but some organizations don’t use it effectively. Some give lip service to the idea but stay with the old ways. The teams who do things “because we’ve always done it that way” will fail and be replaced by innovators.

Some NHL teams devote millions of dollars in analytics but employ people at the top who still make decisions by gut feel.

Very few, and I think it’s far fewer than 10 teams, have something that we could consider a smooth process in getting the valuable data off the page and into the manager’s hands in close to real time. Even fewer have managers at the top fully engaged in the value of the intel.

The teams that have bought in, fully digested the data and reach clear conclusions won’t win every deal, but they will give themselves a chance to win all transactions. As months grow to years, the gap will widen.

None of the teams who employ a quality analytics department, respected by its general manager, would have made the Duncan Keith trade as it will read in the NHL Guide and Record Book.

I’m certain this is true.

...

When will the Oilers fully embrace analytics?
It won’t happen during the Connor McDavid years. McDavid is too good at covering over massive areas of weakness. His best is so good the Oilers can outrun the flaws during the regular season. In fact, he’s so good this group could eventually win the Stanley Cup without the advantage that new statistics and metrics will bring to other teams.

At some point, late in this decade or early in the following one, a new owner, manager or management innovator will look at the roster, realize the greatest player in hockey is no longer there, and begin to chart a path to success that uses every available advantage in getting there.

Oilers fans who hope for an embrace of the analytics innovations would do well to remember that the Keith trade took place 13 years and 10 days after Daryl Katz took ownership of the franchise.

On the day he took over the Oilers, almost 5,000 days ago, the organization was already in a trailing position in regard to analytics. In a very real way, the team has yet to join the race. The asset package sent to Chicago leaves no room for doubt.

Dismal conclusion - although not one that should be surprising. The group we have at the top is too entrenched, too stubborn and too stupid to make the changes that they should. It may cost us the opportunity to win several Cups.

Our 2nd D pair just takes a massive dump all over what anyone that cares even a bit about analytics would think is a good way to spend 8.8M.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/3o7buke3NOCH0MMD4I/giphy.gif

I feel as though I need to post a ‘Leave Keith alone’ video like that whole leave Britney alone thing.

Or. To quote a wise man, who had entire movie, religion and cult created in the name of The Dude... Just take it easy, man.

You got to love it when all these stats guys without seeing a single minute of regular season hockey playing together can without a shadow of a doubt, predict the future and they feel that all decisions should be made based on what certain bias stats tell them.

These are the same guys that said without a shadow of a doubt that Smith would be a disaster last year. How did that turn out? He was what, 6th or 7th in vezina voting? I can't remember completely.

These are the same guys that said Caleb Jones was a can't miss, LOCK to be a good top 4 dman last year. The spread sheet said so. How did that turn out? Oh right, the guy looked like the could barely play in the NHL and took about 2-3 steps back.

I haven't scoured the internet to check but I haven't seen too many articles written from those same guys manning up and saying they were wrong. Most just don't say anything. If they happen to mention it at all which lots don't, it's usually a couple of sentences in an article about something else and they will down play their mistake saying it was as fluke or make excuse after excuse of why it was someone elses fault.

Reality is, yes these numbers have a role to play and should be looked at. HOWEVER, these numbers aren't the can't all, be all. The numbers can be manipulated by the person doing them to produce the results they want to see. There is bias by all these guys doing the numbers. There are other factors out of a players control that can skew the numbers that are not always taken into account. Sometimes guys just have a one off seasons or 2 either good or bad that skew the numbers. There are TONS of instances where the situation a player is put in is not the right one, he doesn't get along with the coach, the system puts him in situations he's not capable of doing well or there are other outside, non hockey related stuff that can impact a players play that do not show up on a spread sheet.

Case in point. Many, many, many people in here think Koskinen is awful and pile on the guy every chance they get. I do not think he is a top end goalie but I think he can be a solid goalie in a tandem system. I think he makes too much money but I do not think he is terrible. I fully expect him to have a good season this year. In listening to him open up about how tough it was for him personally last year, I can't imagine what it would have been like to be him last year. There was already the stress of covid on him. The stress of a weird season, the stress of being locked in your room after every single game. Then on top of that, his wife and kids were across the world with all this crazy going on. He can't see them for 2/3 of a YEAR. He can't hug them or kiss his wife. When he has a bad day, there is no one to talk too and I am sorry but talking to your workmates when you are down is not the same as your family. For anyone married with kids, you know exactly what I mean. I am a married father of 2. I see my kids daily. I drive them to school every day. I worried with all the uncertainty with Covid last year about me, my wife and my kids getting sick. There was lots of days I wasn't focused at work with all the crap that was going on. BUT I got to go home to see my family every day. He didn't and it impacted his work because he had so many other things on his mind. I work a desk so if I am not 100% on, it probably doesn't impact my job as much as a pro athlete. Maybe for some people, that wouldn't be a big deal not seeing their wife and kids for 2/3 of a year, I wouldn't handle it well and sounds like he didn't either. I am sure there are all kinds of stats boys piling on the guy saying is absolute crap because the spread sheet says so. Does their spread sheet have a column that factors in the guy was stressed about his family and lonely? You know, all that mental health stuff that we as a society are supposed to be be more considerate too and take more into account now? I bet it doesn't. But who cares if his head wasn't right, he sucks. RIGHT!

What about Keith. The reason he wanted to leave the Hawks was family. He split with his wife, son moved across the continent. Geeze, I wonder if he was having marriage problems with his wife for a while? Hmmmm.... usually when you split with your wife, there are a lot of issues for a long time before. Would that impact your work life if you are upset and miserable because your home life sucks? Probably. If your wife wants a divorce, moves out and takes your son so you can't see him in normal times much then on top of that there being all the restrictions and Covid going on that made it impossible too. Would that probably impact your work like? Gee... probably. It sure would impact me. So if your head isn't in the game because your wife is gone, you miss your kid and don't know what is going to happen. Is it going to impact your advanced stats that some people think all teams need to base all decisions on? Hmmm..... I bet you it would.

So I'm like you Oscar, I like to see the guys actually play first before I call my shot and decide they are garbage all because some guy with a spread sheet tells me they suck. I do this because these guys are human beings, not robots. There are TONS of things both in the job and more so outside of the job that impact the jobs that us arm chair GM's that post in here do everyday. So if things impact how we do our job, why is it not fair to think that things impact these human players.

[Updated on: Thu, 07 October 2021 09:14]

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Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 12 October 2021 11:23
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: Kr55 on Tue, 12 October 2021 11:29
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: RDOilerfan on Tue, 12 October 2021 11:50
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: Adam on Tue, 12 October 2021 14:59
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: benv on Tue, 12 October 2021 09:52
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: CrusaderPi on Tue, 12 October 2021 10:10
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: inverno76 on Tue, 12 October 2021 18:27
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: GabbyDugan on Wed, 13 October 2021 12:46
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: Kr55 on Wed, 13 October 2021 13:21
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: Mike on Wed, 13 October 2021 13:21
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: g2k on Wed, 13 October 2021 19:53
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: inverno76 on Wed, 13 October 2021 20:56
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: Kr55 on Wed, 13 October 2021 12:06
Re: 2021 Training Camp thread	By: inverno76 on Wed, 13 October 2021 20:59

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