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Oilers » 2021 Training Camp thread

Re: 2021 Training Camp thread [message #792602 is a reply to message #792053 ]	Wed, 06 October 2021 14:47

Adam
Messages: 6824
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

https://theathletic.com/2867685/2021/10/06/lowetide-when-wil l-the-edmonton-oilers-fully-embrace-analytics/

Lowetide scorches the Oilers management and their failure to use the tools available to them.

Quote:

A trade Holland made 16 days before the Bear-Foegele deal shows us the Oilers don’t use analytics in a way more sophisticated teams currently value information.

The deal in question is the one that brought Duncan Keith to Edmonton from the Chicago Blackhawks.

When analytics isn’t in the room
A week before the Keith trade, I wrote about the possible return for The Athletic, writing, “I think fair value is Edmonton dealing Caleb Jones for Keith and a first-round selection to cover the $5 million cap hit.”

The actual trade ignored the massive cap total coming Edmonton’s way, and further devalued Jones by throwing in a draft pick to make the deal whole for Chicago.

There isn’t a hockey analytics department on planet earth with a workable computer that would recommend the Keith-Jones deal as it went down.

The Oilers analytics department is in the room for some or none of the transactions made by Edmonton. There’s simply no other conclusion that can be drawn based on the value placed by Edmonton on $5 million in cap and Jones.

The Toronto Maple Leafs gave up a first-round selection in order to move Patrick Marleau in 2019; an analytics department in the room would have pointed it out.

...

Adapting to proven innovation is important to a team remaining competitive and there is a middle ground between rejecting analytics completely and making it a central theme in all transactions.

NHL teams have access to mountains of data and intel but some organizations don’t use it effectively. Some give lip service to the idea but stay with the old ways. The teams who do things “because we’ve always done it that way” will fail and be replaced by innovators.

Some NHL teams devote millions of dollars in analytics but employ people at the top who still make decisions by gut feel.

Very few, and I think it’s far fewer than 10 teams, have something that we could consider a smooth process in getting the valuable data off the page and into the manager’s hands in close to real time. Even fewer have managers at the top fully engaged in the value of the intel.

The teams that have bought in, fully digested the data and reach clear conclusions won’t win every deal, but they will give themselves a chance to win all transactions. As months grow to years, the gap will widen.

None of the teams who employ a quality analytics department, respected by its general manager, would have made the Duncan Keith trade as it will read in the NHL Guide and Record Book.

I’m certain this is true.

...

When will the Oilers fully embrace analytics?
It won’t happen during the Connor McDavid years. McDavid is too good at covering over massive areas of weakness. His best is so good the Oilers can outrun the flaws during the regular season. In fact, he’s so good this group could eventually win the Stanley Cup without the advantage that new statistics and metrics will bring to other teams.

At some point, late in this decade or early in the following one, a new owner, manager or management innovator will look at the roster, realize the greatest player in hockey is no longer there, and begin to chart a path to success that uses every available advantage in getting there.

Oilers fans who hope for an embrace of the analytics innovations would do well to remember that the Keith trade took place 13 years and 10 days after Daryl Katz took ownership of the franchise.

On the day he took over the Oilers, almost 5,000 days ago, the organization was already in a trailing position in regard to analytics. In a very real way, the team has yet to join the race. The asset package sent to Chicago leaves no room for doubt.

Dismal conclusion - although not one that should be surprising. The group we have at the top is too entrenched, too stubborn and too stupid to make the changes that they should. It may cost us the opportunity to win several Cups.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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2021 Training Camp thread	By: benv on Wed, 22 September 2021 10:16
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