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Oilers » Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)

Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25) [message #778584 is a reply to message #778578 ]	Fri, 05 March 2021 13:54

Kr55
Messages: 9837
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 13:40

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:58

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:34

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:25

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:04

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:41

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:34

Bob Stauffer @Bob_Stauffer

RNH-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Kahun-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Shore-Khaira-Archibald
Neal-Haas-Chiasson
Ennis/Nygard-Turris-P. Russell

Nurse-Barrie
Lagesson-Larsson
Russell-Bouchard
Jones-Bear

Smith
Koskinen

DRY line is no more. Scored, but we still lost.

I am prepared to see fans and bloggers throwing themselves around about the DRY line not lasting. I am of the opinion that before the 3 losses to the Leafs, they had an effective top 6 that lead them to an 11-2 record and being the top scoring team in the league. You can take Nuge away from McD but you are leaving who I deem basically a rookie because the JP that is here today is a different player and he is just figuring out how to establish himself in the league. So in my opinion, you better be sure the DRY line can absolutely shoot the lights out to make up for the potential loss production for McD because you diluted his line to overly stack another.

What does Drai get now in comparison? A guy younger than Pulju, and Kahun who is still super new to the NHL.

I don't even feel that Nuge is that good of a fit with McDavid either. He hasn't produced much all year with McDavid. The analytics are good, but I don't think Nuge is that big of a driver of anything with McDavid. He's always slow to join rushes. Pulju is up with McDavid far more often.

Just some Nuge stats this year:

With McDavid 306 minutes 5v5: 3-3-6
With Drai 34 minutes: 2-1-3

I don't think McDavid really needs Nuge that much. Only arguement would be on the defensive side, but I don't think Nuge is that great defensively either.

IMO Nuge has to play with guys that maintain OZ possession and slow things down, giving him time to play a sneakier game, finding soft areas, being able to take passes off the boards and get shots off. The rush game is not really his thing. And the rush is a massive part of McDavid's game.

The lines were scoring before the Leafs. They went 11-2. People are acting like Leon is playing with a bunch of AHLers. His main partner is Yamo who might be a few months different in age but he is far more established than JP. He's got 16 goals, 37 pts in 52 games. I am really not counting his previous parts of 3 seasons because he didn't do anything. He has 9 pts in 24 games. He's doing well the last month but you are giving McD basically a rookie as his main side kick. Then you have Kahun who Leon has played all kinds of international games with, had lots of success with on the international stage and who he trains and practices with in the offseason. If Kahun had any luck, he'd have several more goals.

I am not against having Nuge with Leon and Yamo, all I am saying is in my opinion, if you are going to triple stack a line like that, they better grossly out produce to compensate diluting other lines.

They won largely because they shored up the defensive side and goalies started to play like NHL goalies as well. Both Drai and McDavid cooled off during our run of winning games compared to when they were blowing the doors off early in the year while we were losing. Lots of the turnaround had to do with the PP clicking too.

It's all a small sample size. There is a point where things will balance out and we need to find the combos that give the most consistency. And find the right combos for the players to fit their strenghts. Personally, I don't think we're doing that yet. McDavid's line still just depends on him going end to end and, if you want to get in on the action, the wingers better find a way to keep up. Drai's line hugely depends on him too of course. Yams has taken a bit of a step back this year. Kahun is OK, but not really that important of a piece on that line.

The only line we've seen in the last 2 years on this team where it actually looked like all 3 guys were consistently contributing to the lines success was the DRY line IMO. I think McDavid would do about the same without Nuge too.

I don't even remember who McDavid played with when DRY was put together last season. He scored just as many 5v5 points as Drai though since Jan 1st 2020. Neal, Archibald, Chiasson, Kassian, AA, Nygard, Ennis, and so on. Still put up points with all those guys. He really does not need Nuge, and Nuge is just not that good at producing with McDavid 5v5.

Just to add to this. Here is Nuge's 5v5 production with McDavid and Drai:

Nuge with Drai 599 minutes - 3.5 Points/60
Nuge with McDavid 748 minutes - 1.68 Points/60

goals stats for combos last 3 seasons:

Nuge+Drai without McDavid: 554 Minutes - 4.01 GF/60, 2.49 GA/60 - 61.67 GF% - 53.52 xGF%
Nuge+McDavid without Drai: 703 Minutes - 2.39 GF/60, 2.82 GA/60 - 45.90 GF% - 51.75 xGF%
McDavid without Nuge/Drai: 723 Minutes - 2.9 GF/60, 3.32 GA/60 - 46.67 GF% - 48.78 xGF%

With the tiny sample sizes this year, McDavid+Nuge is 44.44% goals for 5v5 in 303 minutes. Leon+Nuge in just the small 31 minutes is 60%.

McDavid without either is obviously full of having to play with some real turds. You would obviously need to figure out decent linemates that you can stick with for a while. Creating a more consistent 2nd line at the cost of McDavid having to earn his 12.5M a little more and likely get similar results anyways... I don't mind it.

I wish there was a way to factor in how many wide open looks from McD Nuge fired wide, over the net or into the mid section of the goalie this season into that pts/60 stat.

The DRY line also had Yamo scoring 26 pts in 27 games last year. Do you or I expect Yamo to be a pt a game player for his career? If he is, that would be amazing because that means he's an elite level player. I think Yamo is going to be a good top 6 player but he's not going to be elite. So did Yamo being on an insane heater help those pts/60 numbers? I'd say so.

Anyway, I will let it go. The line last year was fantastic. Do I think they could put up those numbers again? Not a chance. I think it was a good line, that went on an incredible run. But could they maybe do it again, while I doubt it, it's possible. Would I get upset if they put it together, no I wouldn't. All I care about is putting together the best line up and win as many games as they can. If you want to post pts/60 or whatever most likely unsustainable stat you want, have it it. I just look at the record they had prior to the Leafs series and they were beating teams for fun and should have went 13-0 but were 11-2 while scoring goals in bunches. No it wasn't just McD and Leon's line doing it. They won in all kinds of ways. They did it with scoring from the top 6, bottom 6, defense scoring, good defense, sometimes the goalie stood on his head. To me that is what good teams do and what you want. They beat you in all kinds of ways. It's not just 1 line doing it all and the rest just out there to give that line a breather.

So in my mind, I don't know why you'd want to change up the lines from a team that went 11-2. Yes they had 3 bad games against the Leafs. I watched all 3 games and I do not think having Nuge with Leon and Yamo all of a sudden flips the script. The Leafs grossly out played the Oilers in every aspect. They got way better goaltending, they had way, way, more compete and clearly wanted to win those games way more than the Oilers. They kicked the Oilers ass. They put that line together for 1 game and I know it's not a totally fair assessment based on 1 game but while that line was just OK, there was nothing about that game that made me say "Oh wow, that was the missing link for this series. " They kicked the Oilers ass in game 1 and they kicked the Oilers ass as bad or more the last game.

I am inclined to think it's the coaches (and managers) job to always know what it working and what isn't, even if the overall results have been good lately. Lots of teams get hot now and then or get a run of luck. That's not a reason for a coach to just ignore stuff that hasn't been working that well through the run and think the good times will last forever. Could argue we did that, leading to 3 stinkers in a row. Thank goodness for getting to play Ottawa a lot or we could be around .500 right now. We have some room, but it can still get away from us in a hurry if we keep thinking everything was perfect and didn't need any improvement 2 weeks ago.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: OilFans on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:30
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:31
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: g2k on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:34
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Slim Jim Phantom Call on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:36
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Ragnarok73 on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:38
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Slim Jim Phantom Call on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:40
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Ragnarok73 on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:53
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:54
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Adam on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:38
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: PlusOne on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:40
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: g2k on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:43
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: PlusOne on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:46
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Mike on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:50
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:53
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Slim Jim Phantom Call on Wed, 03 March 2021 21:03
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Adam on Wed, 03 March 2021 22:11
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Slim Jim Phantom Call on Wed, 03 March 2021 22:23
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Adam on Wed, 03 March 2021 23:31
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Leia on Thu, 04 March 2021 01:24
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:50
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Ragnarok73 on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:55
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: CrusaderPi on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:56
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: g2k on Wed, 03 March 2021 21:02
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 21:04
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:41
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: HamBlaster on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:42
[quote tiRe: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Ragnarok73 on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:32
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:34
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: inverno76 on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:38
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:46
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: g2k on Wed, 03 March 2021 20:49
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: JPro on Wed, 03 March 2021 21:07
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: g2k on Wed, 03 March 2021 21:13
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Wed, 03 March 2021 22:26
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: CrudeRemarks on Wed, 03 March 2021 22:47
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Skookum Jim on Thu, 04 March 2021 03:13
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Thu, 04 March 2021 07:18
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 04 March 2021 08:52
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: CrusaderPi on Thu, 04 March 2021 09:06
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 04 March 2021 09:30
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Thu, 04 March 2021 09:25
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: JPro on Thu, 04 March 2021 09:01
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:34
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:38
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:43
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:41
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: CrudeRemarks on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:46
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:04
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Oscargasm on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:08
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:25
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:34
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:56
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 13:02
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Adam on Fri, 05 March 2021 13:40
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: K.McC#24 on Fri, 05 March 2021 14:45
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 14:52
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Adam on Fri, 05 March 2021 17:15
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 17:29
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:58
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: RDOilerfan on Fri, 05 March 2021 13:40
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: Kr55 on Fri, 05 March 2021 13:54
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: CrudeRemarks on Fri, 05 March 2021 11:48
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: smyth260 on Fri, 05 March 2021 12:06
Re: Review: Toronto @ Edmonton (Game #25)	By: inverno76 on Fri, 05 March 2021 15:05

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