RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 February 2022 12:48

OK. Then. You said the GMs "blew it" called it a "draft fail" in 1 post. Then followed it up with saying it was a GM blunder. But you are right, you didn't specifically say bust. You said multiple statements saying similar things but you didn't use that specific word. I should have been very, very specific with my statement, my mistake.

It's a fail because the Oilers bucked the conventional wisdom to take a guy they thought was better, but no one else did. If they're wrong, then that's a fail, even if Broberg is a good player for the team for a long, long time. The fact is, as long as you're not named Peter Chiarelli, you can trade a top line forward for better than just a middle pairing defenceman - so if we'd have gotten Zegras, and decided we needed defence more, we could trade him for Broberg (or equivalent) plus plus.

We had the more valuable pick at 8th overall, and we downgraded.

I mean, let's move it to something you're less emotionally involved in. In 1990, the Calgary Flames traded up - sending their #20 pick plus two second round picks to New Jersey for the #11 pick and another 2nd rounder. They picked Trevor Kidd with #11. Trevor Kidd was a decent enough goalie - he played for the Flames for parts of 5 seasons, and finished with 387 games played. That's respectable. But New Jersey also used #20 to pick a goalie, one Martin Brodeur who'd go on to be the winningest goalie in NHL history. Did the Flames make a draft fail, even successfully picking a goalie who was their starter for a few seasons? I'd say yes.

And at least there, Kidd was rated higher at the time by the consensus of scouts. Less eyes on the prospects at that time, less sophisticated scouting, less understanding of how goalies should be looked at, so there's some reasons there, but at least the Flames weren't going against the grain to make that pick.

The Oilers decided that everyone else was wrong and they knew better about who was more valuable between Zegras and Broberg. I think those picks deserve more scrutiny. I've always been less fussed about Steve Kelly vs. Shane Doan - those two were ranked pretty similarly going into the draft - than about someone like Niinimaki, who was picked 30-50 spots ahead of where the consensus had him. Zegras was a guy who some tagged to go in the top 5. It was a gift that he fell to us, and the Oilers blew it by not picking him. In order for that to be a win, then Broberg needs to be better than Zegras, and not even you or Holland are predicting that to happen. Holland even said something about not being able to go back in time - which is as clear an indication as you can get that he knows he screwed it up.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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