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Adam Messages: 6829
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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jds308 wrote on Wed, 12 May 2021 10:11 |
Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:56 |
jds308 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:34 |
Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:16 |
RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:11 |
Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.
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Depends on how long. If he says $4MM a year for eight years, would you do that? It would take him until he's almost 38...
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Barrie would be crazy to not go to UFA and cash in on what might be his last big NHL deal. However, what if the team goes a few rounds in the playoffs and heads into the summer with a real feeling of being just that close to a cup? Would Barrie consider doing another 1 or 2 year deal at similar money to get a cup? Would Holland consider it if it meant coming back next year with the same group on the crowded right side? Would you look to move Bear or Bouchard to address other needs? Lots of possibilities here, and it's nice to have too many good players rather than AHL level D rounding out the roster.
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If you're Barrie's agent, and the Oilers are offering a 1-2 year deal, you have to tell your client he'd be crazy to accept it. If he gets hurt, if he gets supplanted by Bouchard, if he just has a rough season, he could be leaving millions and millions on the table. Even if we gave him a big short contract - say $8MMx1 - if he could get even just $6.5x7 from Seattle or someone else, that's $37.5MM difference. You blow out a knee and you have that much less to retire on. It just isn't worth the risk. His entire career earnings to this point are just over $32MM. He can make WAY more than that on this contract likely so he has to follow the money. If it was a choice between $6.5MM for 7 years and $7MM for 8 years, maybe you can make that sacrifice, but to go short term? It would be an insane decision - no matter how much he likes it here.
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If you were to pin me down and force me to predict, I would most certainly agree that he would follow the money and earn the most he can before his best days are behind him.
There is something to be said, however, about "fit" and the opportunity to win a championship. Barrie fits well on this team, and there's a reasonable chance that the Oilers are going to bring home a cup in the next few years (FFS I hope). Also, we've seen this story play out time and time again. Player X has a good season ahead of UFA, team Y, looking to make a splash, over pays player X hoping they are the secret sauce to save their franchise! It rarely works out, and usually, the player and team end up unhappy, and often a painful buy-out follows. Barrie may value fit and potential for a cup over the risk of the other scenario. Plus, if he signed a 2-year deal, and the Oilers win a cup year after next, he would be right back in the UFA driver's seat again.
The other X factor here is the flat cap. It's not like other teams don't know that Barrie is far from a perfect player. They aren't going to just look at his points and hand him 6x8M or something like that. He might find that there are less big money, long-term offers out there this summer. I doubt the Oilers would have the best offer, but who knows, they might be able to offer something close, plus fit and opportunity (and 97). At the end of the day, I think he's playing in a different sweater next year.
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The problem is that his chance to optimize is now. He could stay here and have a couple of good seasons and look to be a free agent again at age 31, but he'd be older - which might hurt term, and what are the odds that he'll lead the league in defenceman points again? It could happen, but if I'm his agent, I'm drumming in to him that there's no guarantee. Anything could happen in two years. He could be slowed by injuries, he could be supplanted on PP1 by Bouchard or someone else, he could get seriously injured and have his career end.
As I said before, I think he's probably willing to take some discount on top dollar in order to have a really good fit. He's been on a team where it wasn't a great fit before, and so I think he will put some value in to that - but I don't think the Oilers should give him a term longer than 2-3 years, or a dollar above $5MM, and I think someone will offer him 7x$7MM. He'd be nuts to pass it up. And we'd be nuts to match that.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky
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Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers |
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By: Gator21 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:06 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:28 |
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By: oilfan94 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:43 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 15:44 |
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By: K.McC#24 on Sat, 10 October 2020 20:29 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:37 |
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By: smyth260 on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:47 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:37 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:43 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:53 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 15 January 2021 14:20 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 15 January 2021 16:01 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 20 February 2021 21:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Sun, 21 February 2021 00:26 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 16 April 2021 16:53 |
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By: jds308 on Fri, 16 April 2021 17:48 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 16 April 2021 18:31 |
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By: jds308 on Tue, 20 April 2021 17:55 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 20 April 2021 22:07 |
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By: smyth260 on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:19 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:51 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 21:26 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 21:37 |
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By: Kr55 on Sun, 02 May 2021 09:09 |
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By: Adam on Sun, 02 May 2021 13:46 |
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