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 Kr55
Messages: 9640
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
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| mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:52 |
| Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:20 |
| RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:02 |
| Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31 |
| mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33 |
I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO.
For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time.
Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available.
To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.
The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now.
And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand.
I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals.
I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison.
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I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.
I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.
At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.
Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:
Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60
So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?
Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.
There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.
Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197
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I totally do not get how some people like to completely discredit a "second assist" as if it's completely meaningless. I think it's utterly ridiculous.
The puck is in the Oilers zone. Barrie gets the puck, fires a tape to tape pass to whoever at the center line. That forward takes the puck into the offensive zone, fires a pass to the shooter and a goal is scored.
Does that breakout pass to not only get out of your zone but to start the play mean nothing? If that pass that is the "secondary assist" isn't made, the play does not happen. I don't mean to come off harsh but it's honestly one of the most ridiculous arguments I have seen and it's not just in here, I see it a ton. Of all the fan bases, I would think that Oilers fans of all fan bases would appreciate the "second assist" the most because how many years did we see the Oilers break out being the dman just fire it up the boards or off the glass and hope for the best. Now we have dman that can make an actual break out pass on the tape to our forward in stride to start an offensive rush and fans now scoff at the "secondary assist" that started the whole sequence.
Every time McD sends a pass on the PP to the point man, the point man shoots and a goal is scored by a tip or rebound, those same people scoffing at Barrie's "secondary assist" better be scoffing at McD's.
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Don't think it's an insult to 2nd assists or the player. Just, typically 2nd assists are very noisy stats. Barrie has always had ~0.70 2nd assists/60. This year he's leading all D with 1.34. Cale Makar the league leader in primary points/60 by D has 0.78 2nd assists per 60 mins.
Just something to consider is all. It's a noisy stat. It does reflect your skill to be involved in plays, but it also can be reflective of a high quality of teammates able to make those 2 extra plays leading to a goal after your last touch, something that may not carry when you play with lesser linemates, and also something that might be handed to someone else able to get your ice time with those quality guys.
Even with quality guys, there is a bit of luck involved with being able to rack up 2nd assists at that rate as a D. No one was over 1 2nd assist/60 last year. No joke, there are 0 dmen since the 2007/2008 season (as far back as naturalstattrick goes) that have managed Barrie's rate of 2nd assists in all situations that played at least 300 minutes of ice time in the season. He's having a generational 2nd assist year :)
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To be honest, the stacked second assist rate doesn't shock me. In my mind, that's kind of what we all wanted him to do - get the puck to McDavid with speed and open ice, and let McDavid do what he does. I don't want Barrie to be the primary playmaker, not when we have McDavid. What I do want is someone very good at feeding McDavid.
Since McDavid has an insane number of primary assists, if Barrie is feeding him first, that sort of checks out. Is it sustainable? Would he repeat next year on the Oilers? I'm not sure, but it wouldn't shock me if it would remain pretty high. The Oilers are a team that score and attack a LOT off the rush... this isn't really a team that scores a ton off the cycle.
I WOULD expect that Barrie's point total and second assist total would drop with a lesser player, because McDavid is the engine that drives this thing, and drives his numbers. But I also think there is value in having that player who does that for the Oilers, and I don't think they've had a better puck mover during McDavid's time here. I like Bear and Bouchard fine, but I don't think either has necessarily demonstrated that yet, though perhaps they could.
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Just trying to illustrate how the result is kind of an outlier, over the last 14 years even, accross all the D that got to play with prime Crosby and Ovechkin and playing for crazy scoring Tampa teams.
I wouldn't want to say I don't think Barrie has great offensive instincts, he most definitely does. Is his skillset so unique that we have to overpay, probably using all the cap space we were banking on to finally fill out our lineup, and deal with his declining years to hold onto it. I'm just not able to get there personally.
I think going forward any competent right handed passer that plays with Nurse is going to put up points (Nurse gets loads of ice time with McDavid, and he defers to his partner a lot for the outlet pass). Probably not at the rate Barrie did this year, and I doubt even Barrie would be able to reproduce this years rate, but good enough that McDavid is allowed to keep pushing the pace. And the lucky guy that gets to play on the 1st PP unit, be ready for points too. Nurse did fine this year on the PP too, 7.44 Points/60 with McDavid (50 minutes) on the PP vs Barrie's 7.29 (180 minutes, and sorry if Goose already pointed that out)
[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 18:11]
"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013
"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015
5 x $5,000,000
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Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:28 |
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