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 Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver
1 Cup
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| RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:02 |
| Goose wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31 |
I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.
I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.
At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.
Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:
Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60
So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?
Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.
There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.
Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;am p;am p;am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197
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I totally do not get how some people like to completely discredit a "second assist" as if it's completely meaningless. I think it's utterly ridiculous.
The puck is in the Oilers zone. Barrie gets the puck, fires a tape to tape pass to whoever at the center line. That forward takes the puck into the offensive zone, fires a pass to the shooter and a goal is scored.
Does that breakout pass to not only get out of your zone but to start the play mean nothing? If that pass that is the "secondary assist" isn't made, the play does not happen. I don't mean to come off harsh but it's honestly one of the most ridiculous arguments I have seen and it's not just in here, I see it a ton. Of all the fan bases, I would think that Oilers fans of all fan bases would appreciate the "second assist" the most because how many years did we see the Oilers break out being the dman just fire it up the boards or off the glass and hope for the best. Now we have dman that can make an actual break out pass on the tape to our forward in stride to start an offensive rush and fans now scoff at the "secondary assist" that started the whole sequence.
Every time McD sends a pass on the PP to the point man, the point man shoots and a goal is scored by a tip or rebound, those same people scoffing at Barrie's "secondary assist" better be scoffing at McD's.
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Nobody is discrediting 2nd assists or saying they're, "completely meaningless". However, it has been shown that 2nd assists are less repeatable, and therefore less likely to predict future performance than goals or 1st assists. That's not to say that they have zero predictive value, just less than the other two.
So if we're trying to predict whether Bear's scoring totals with McDavid would be repeatable next year if Barrie wasn't there, that's one factor to consider (TOI, competition and teammates would be others). The fact that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is low compared to Barrie's is one indication that if Bear were to increase his minutes with McDavid that it is more likely that he would be able to maintain a similar scoring rate than if he had a high 2nd assists rate this year, with the biggest caveat being that I think McDavid has a huge impact, so if he has a lesser year than this year, Bear's numbers will be down.
Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games
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Tyson Barrie Signs w/ Oilers |
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By: Gator21 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:06 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:28 |
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By: oilfan94 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:43 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:58 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:18 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:21 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:24 |
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By: Skoobz on Sat, 10 October 2020 15:52 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 15:44 |
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By: K.McC#24 on Sat, 10 October 2020 20:29 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:37 |
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By: smyth260 on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:47 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:37 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:43 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:53 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 16 October 2020 14:57 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 15 January 2021 14:20 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 15 January 2021 16:01 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 20 February 2021 21:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Sun, 21 February 2021 00:26 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 16 April 2021 16:53 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 16 April 2021 15:48 |
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By: jds308 on Fri, 16 April 2021 17:48 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 16 April 2021 18:31 |
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By: jds308 on Tue, 20 April 2021 17:55 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 16 April 2021 20:54 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 20 April 2021 22:07 |
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By: PlusOne on Wed, 21 April 2021 10:32 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 21 April 2021 10:56 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:45 |
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By: smyth260 on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:19 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:51 |
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By: Skoobz on Wed, 21 April 2021 12:12 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 21:26 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 21:37 |
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By: Adam on Sun, 02 May 2021 13:46 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 11 May 2021 10:06 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 11 May 2021 10:17 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 11 May 2021 15:29 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:08 |
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By: Goose on Tue, 11 May 2021 16:31 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 11 May 2021 21:44 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:43 |
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