 RDOilerfan
Messages: 3705
Registered: January 2016
3 Cups
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| Adam wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 17:04 |
| mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 15:01 |
| RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 14:03 |
| Kr55 wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:58 |
| RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 12:56 |
It is pretty typical of a segment of Oilers fan to feel the need to carve up a player. Things are going well, team is winning, they look to be a good team so it's hard to complain about the team so they go pick apart a player. He's close to scoring 50 pts in 56 games.
The Oilers PP is #1 in the league, almost 2 % better than any other team but apparently it's not good enough.
McD is on a 155 pt in 82 game pace, numbers we haven't seen since the 80's or early 90's but apparently Barrie is dragging down his points.
I don't see the Oilers resigning just because I think he will price himself out and they have a built in guy that should be able to take over his role mostly in Bouchard for cheap. But I don't get why Oilers fans can't just enjoy things and their players. I still see people carving up Nurse and he will probably get norris vottes. 
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Not that bad to look at the summer and next year is it? The GM told us this season is a write off anyways :) Just not a top 5 team, even if we added at the deadline :(
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I guess so but I question the guys numbers a little because they can be manipulated.
Barrie is on pace for 70 pts in 82 games. That's not enough? what should he be scoring if he was "good?"
The PP is #1 in the league, almost 2% better than #2. They are 29.5% last year and that was record setting so to think it was going to do that again isn't realistic but at the same time the Oilers played 71 games last year. Maybe if they played the same games it would get up there. But being #1 in the league and by a lot isn't good enough?
McD is doing things we haven't seen a player do in decades. Barrie is helping with that. But the 155 pt pace in 82 games he's on isn't enough?
The guys numbers are implying that Barrie isn't very good. HOW?
There are stats guys out there who will say that Nurse isn't a very good dman. Am I supposed to believe that too?
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The problem with that set of tweets and data selection is the implication and conclusion: that if you were to take all of Tyson Barrie's minutes this season and divide it up between Adam Larsson and Ethan Bear, not only would McDavid's numbers be just as ridiculous as they are now, they'd actually be even better!
Adam "first pass" Larsson (9 points) and Ethan Bear (8 points) are apparently the key to unlocking more offense out of McDavid and pushing him to 117 points instead of 102 points. Never mind that both of those guys have been with McDavid for years, the data selected seem to implicate that if those two were playing with McDavid instead of Tyson Barrie, McDavid would have hit 100 points weeks ago.
I don't think anyone is going to question that McDavid helps Barrie more than Barrie helps McDavid. We all know the less time Barrie is playing in his own end, the better (and if there is an argument to make against him, that's the one, that his offensive benefit doesn't outweigh his defensively liability, though as those tweets point out, he's outscored opposition this year when on the ice). But it's just such a jump in my mind to conclude that Larsson and Bear playing with McDavid would cause him to be produce at a higher rate offensively this year than he has. It really feels like there is something more to be seen in the data, something missing, or else Larsson's agent should be pointing this exact scenario out in contract negotiations this summer.
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A few things:
- Bear probably does have more offence than he's shown this year. He's not been used in a role that gives him a lot of opportunity there this year. Because Tippett has done so much of the year with a five-man unit for McDavid with Barrie & Nurse, it's meant that Bear's had a lot of his time down roster. As we know, the third and fourth lines don't contribute anywhere close to as much as they should, so not an easy place to get points.
- For RDOF, I don't think anyone hates Tyson Barrie. He's done a good job this year, and he's delivered the good when it comes to what's been expected of him. He's contributing points, he's not a massive defensive liability either, despite playing against good competition. Playing with McDavid really helps with that - he puts other team's top guys on the defensive. However, I don't believe the Oilers can afford to sign Tyson Barrie to the contract he's going to sign this summer, and I think it would be a mistake to commit multiple years and big dollars to him.
- It is interesting some of the difference between Nurse and Barrie - despite them playing together much of the year. Nurse is +29 - tied for 2nd in the league, Barrie is +6. Plus/Minus is relevant on a relative basis...so that's a bit of an odd gap.
- I am admittedly bullish on Bouchard, and think a lot of the loss of Barrie can be mitigated by him. I think he'll be an excellent powerplay defenceman. I like the mobility and the game sense. He has more than just a big blast (although he has an absolute cannon) in that he can take the quick sneaky wrist shot that gets through traffic, and he can make the 3/4 speed shot for tips. He seems to pass really well too. I'm excited to see what he can do with the PP and what he can add given a bigger role. Some of that bigger role needs to come at the expense of Barrie - because you can't have them both as the point man on the powerplay. Whether that happens this coming season or the one after, if Bouchard takes minutes from Barrie on the man advantage, Barrie is immediately overpaid. Just under 50% of his points are powerplay points this year.
- I also think that if you keep Barrie, and assuming the reports are true that the Oilers do prioritize Larsson over all their other free agents, then you need to trade either Bear or Bouchard (or get Tippett comfortable with playing Bouchard at LD). Another year sitting and watching games is not good for Bouchard's development and terrible for the Oilers asset management. I think he has done enough to show he's ready for a spot on the team, and so that means we have an extra decent RD. If we re-sign Barrie (and Larsson), then that's too valuable an asset to not put in play to address another need.
- The one other point worth remembering is that Darnell Nurse is UFA at the end of next year. If you put $7MM plus in Tyson Barrie's bank account next year and several after that, do you have enough to pay Nurse what he's going to demand? Can you afford to pay them both long-term? What happens then if Bouchard breaks through and Barrie falls off? MacT didn't want to have three $4MM defenceman - what if they're all making $7MM+???
- I think enjoy Barrie for what he is - a one-year Oiler who was a great fit for meeting both our objectives. We got a great PP player to replace Klefbom while he's out, and a bridge until the Bouchard era begins. He got an opportunity to really push his scoring numbers and to give him the best possible shot at getting top dollar and term from someone this summer. If we're REALLY lucky, he can leave with a Cup ring too (although it would have helped if we'd added another top-six forward or another good goalie)...
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Like I said, I don't think signing Barrie is the right call unless he makes it so you have to by coming in so cheap. If he comes back and says just give me what I make now, they'd be crazy to ignore that.
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By: Gator21 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:06 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:28 |
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By: oilfan94 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:43 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:58 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:18 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:21 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:24 |
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By: Skoobz on Sat, 10 October 2020 15:52 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 15:44 |
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By: K.McC#24 on Sat, 10 October 2020 20:29 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:37 |
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By: smyth260 on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:47 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:37 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:43 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:53 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 16 October 2020 14:57 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 15 January 2021 14:20 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 15 January 2021 16:01 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 20 February 2021 21:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Sun, 21 February 2021 00:26 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 16 April 2021 16:53 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 16 April 2021 20:54 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 20 April 2021 22:07 |
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By: PlusOne on Wed, 21 April 2021 10:32 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 21 April 2021 10:56 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:45 |
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