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 Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver
1 Cup
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| mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 11 May 2021 11:33 |
I saw those OilersNerdAlert numbers last night, but I'm taking them with a little grain of salt too. I'm not sure we're really getting a clear picture with the data he presented. He came in with a bias and has presented as such, IMO.
For example, how many minutes has McDavid played without Barrie on the powerplay? I'm trying to find the data, but my guess is the sample size is a lot smaller, and that they've played a lot more together... which certainly could impact the data. Smaller samples can exaggerate differences or similarities that change with time.
Same could really be said for smaller sample size of data with other defenseman he has played with since to my eye Barrie and Nurse have played a lot more with McDavid than others (which also begs the question how Nurse compares. Do we dump him also?). McDavid needs to have a few good shifts with a few defesemen he normally doesn't play with to really shift that data. I'd love to see total minutes played with each of the defensman if that is available.
To be honest, I do find the Barrie-bashing annoying a bit. Only in Edmonton (and maybe Toronto) do you have the top two scorers in the NHL, the top defenseman in scoring, they are dramatically outscoring opposition when on the ice, and playing them together is controversial. I'd hate to see what some people would have done to Paul Coffey.
The top of the Oilers lineup (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Barrie, Smith) is producing at a rate we haven't seen since the 1980s. I've never watched them produce at this rate, so finding the rainy cloud in a blue sky isn't really for me right now.
And I do believe this - if any defenseman could do what Barrie has done this year, I imagine they would have. He is producing points at nearly double the rate any other defenseman McDavid has played with in his career has. McDavid is having a career year, and no doubt all this is linked... but perhaps Barrie getting the puck to McDavid with more frequency shouldn't be entirely dismissed out of hand.
I'm not even suggesting Barrie is incredible or this really complete defenseman. But despite how OilersNerdAlert presented things, he seems to work with well with McDavid, and I think we will lose some offensive production if Barrie leaves. If that's the case, you are actually probably hoping that the Oilers allow LESS goals than that they score MORE goals.
I could be wrong, but I think sample sizes need to be questions when looking at that data. If someone has the minutes played with each defenseman, that could be interesting, and if they are close, would be more of an apples to apples comparison.
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I'm coming at this from the perspective as to whether the Oilers should be considering signing Barrie or not. Based on what I've seen, I don't think they should, definitely not if the number is $7M. I don't even think they should do it at $5M if the term is more than 3 years. If you want to call that Barrie bashing, that's fine, and I get that the Oilers are doing well so people would rather focus on that but it's nothing personal against Tyson Barrie. He's definitely made the most of the situation he's been given so full credit to him there.
I think the sample size question on the PP is a fair one. Naturalstattrick has all of those breakdowns. McDavid has 181 minutes on the PP this year with Barrie and 46 minutes without Barrie. So sample sizes are not big. At the same time, if you had asked anyone where they thought that Barrie would have the biggest impact on the Oilers, they would have said on the PP. So the fact that McDavid scores more on the PP when Barrie isn't on the ice isn't a great sign.
At 5x5, part of the problem is that Barrie (and Nurse) play so much with McDavid that the other defencemen don't have a lot of time with him.
Here is the breakdown of the defencmen on the team and their minutes and scoring rates with McDavid 5x5:
Nurse: 652 min - 1.75pts/60 (a lot of those minutes are with Barrie also)
Barrie: 546min - 1.87pts/60
Bear: 174 min - 2.06pts/60
Larsson: 141 min - 0.00 pts/60
Russell: 116 min - 2.04 pts/60
Jones: 73 min - 1.63 pts/60
So to say that Barrie's scoring rates with McDavid are unprecedented, maybe that's true from an absolute perspective, but it's definitely not true from a scoring rate perspective this year. And is it fair to compare to any other year given that McDavid, at 5x5, is scoring at almost 0.5pts/60 higher this year than in any previous year (and 0.77pts/60 higher than he was last year)?
Would I like to see more minutes from Bear with McDavid to know whether that number is sustainable? Sure. But Kr55 has already talked about Barrie's 2nd assist rate. Notable that Bear's 2nd assist rate with McDavid is just over half that of Barrie's (0.69/60 vs 1.1/60). Personally, I would have no problem with Bear replacing Barrie as the top RHD in terms of minutes with McDavid, and I don't think the Oilers lose anything in that scenario. I think Bear is a better passer than Barrie, and I think he has a higher hockey IQ.
There's just nothing about Barrie's numbers that scream to me he's somehow unlocked anything with McDavid. Sure, they seem to be working fine together, but I give the lion's share of the credit to McDavid who is right in the middle of what is historically a forward's peak production years (I commented before about comparing Gretzky's points trajectory to where McDavid is), as opposed to Barrie.
Here's where I pulled the numbers for Bear and Barrie, you can play around with the filters to look at anyone else:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8478451
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason =20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&am p;stdoi=std&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8475197
[Updated on: Tue, 11 May 2021 16:35]
Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games
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By: Gator21 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:06 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:28 |
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By: oilfan94 on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:43 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 11:58 |
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By: nullterm on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:15 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:18 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 10 October 2020 12:24 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 15:44 |
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By: K.McC#24 on Sat, 10 October 2020 20:29 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:37 |
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By: smyth260 on Sat, 10 October 2020 23:47 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:37 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 13 October 2020 13:43 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 16 October 2020 14:57 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 15 January 2021 14:20 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 15 January 2021 16:01 |
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By: Adam on Sat, 20 February 2021 21:15 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 16 April 2021 16:53 |
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By: smyth260 on Fri, 16 April 2021 20:54 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 20 April 2021 22:07 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 21 April 2021 10:56 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:45 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 21 April 2021 11:51 |
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