 mightyreasoner
Messages: 508
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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| Adam wrote on Thu, 03 December 2020 15:41 |
| mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 03 December 2020 13:25 |
Re: Goaltending
(Pulled from another thread)
| mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 16 October 2020 00:38 |
Near as I can tell, Mike Smith was .911 post-December (574 shots against, 51 goals against, 523 saves). Appeared in 19 games, and produced the following results:
- 9 games .900 or below
- 1 game between .901 and .910
- 1 game between .911 and .920
- 6 games between .921 and .950
- 2 games between .951 and .999
- 0 games of 1.000
Consistency was his issue all year. He had a few games he stole, but you could count on a subpar game more often than not, even after December ended. He was better than he was the first half of the year, but really at best you could say he was average across the league even during this best stretch of hockey.
https://www.nhl.com/player/mike-smith-8469608?stats=gamelogs -r-nhl&season=20192020
For comparison, here is Koskinen for that same stretch:
In 12 game appearances, he was .929 post-December (382 shots against, 27 goals against, 355 saves) and produced the following results:
- 3 games .900 or below
- 1 game between .901 and .910
- 0 games between .911 and .920
- 3 games between .921 and .950
- 3 games between .951 or .999
- 2 games of 1.000
https://www.nhl.com/player/mikko-koskinen-8475156?stats=game logs-r-nhl&season=20192020
8 of 12 games at .920 or higher. It's baffling why Tippett decided to go with Smith over Koskinen, and I think playoff credit has to lean more towards Mikko than Mike.
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The issue with Koskinen is a fairly small sample size. He wasn't very good in 2018/2019, and was horrible down the stretch. He was pretty good in 2019/2020, apart from a mediocre play-in. What is reasonable to expect from him, at this age, and with this sample size? I think there's a lot unknown still.
It is fair to question, especially at his age, if what we saw January-March is a hot streak or something close to what we can expect from him next season. Given his overall play last year, I think he's probably a decent bet to move forward with this year (though I still question the wisdom of that four year contract). What he really needed though is a solid tandem goaltender in case he does regress, and Mike Smith is absolutely not that.
Koskinen may be solid. But I think it's fair to worry about what happens if he takes a step back or gets injured. There isn't much built in beyond a best-case scenario.
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I may have said this back then, but if not, I'll say it here. I don't think that single-game save percentages are very meaningful because the impact of a single goal when you face 25-35 shots a night is huge as does your team's stinginess. For example, if your team only allows 20 shots one night, then a single goal has a 5% swing, while if they allow 40 shots, that impact is cut in half.
I think the sample size is too small for game by game.
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For me I think is speaks to consistency you can expect. If you have someone like Mike Smith who is lights out one night and stops 50 shots, but then throws up four games below .900, the percentages average out, even though he was only very good in one of the five games or whatever. It speaks to how often you can rely on them to be average or better on any given start.
Like with Smith, he had a .911 save percentage post-December, but almost half the games he had less than .900. Looking strictly at his save percentage you'd think he was average. Looking at how he got there shows its really feast or famine, and a lot of famine actually.
[Updated on: Thu, 03 December 2020 15:51]
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Klefbom considering Injury Options |
By: Adam on Wed, 30 September 2020 10:25 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 30 September 2020 11:01 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 30 September 2020 11:11 |
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By: inverno76 on Wed, 30 September 2020 11:30 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 30 September 2020 14:17 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 30 September 2020 16:26 |
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By: nullterm on Wed, 30 September 2020 21:35 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 30 September 2020 22:49 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 01 October 2020 08:59 |
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By: smyth260 on Thu, 01 October 2020 01:42 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 05 October 2020 10:02 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 05 October 2020 10:10 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 05 October 2020 14:03 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 05 October 2020 15:31 |
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By: smyth260 on Mon, 05 October 2020 15:49 |
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By: smyth260 on Mon, 05 October 2020 20:13 |
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By: Skoobz on Tue, 06 October 2020 14:50 |
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Re: Klefbom considering Injury Options |
By: Kr55 on Mon, 05 October 2020 17:22 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 13 October 2020 19:02 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 01 December 2020 18:41 |
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Re: Klefbom considering Injury Options |
By: OilPeg on Wed, 02 December 2020 10:30 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 02 December 2020 10:40 |
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By: OilPeg on Thu, 03 December 2020 07:08 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 02 December 2020 10:43 |
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By: OilPeg on Thu, 03 December 2020 06:59 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 07 December 2020 11:31 |
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By: K.McC#24 on Wed, 02 December 2020 11:38 |
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Re: Klefbom considering Injury Options |
By: jds308 on Wed, 02 December 2020 12:58 |
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By: jds308 on Wed, 02 December 2020 13:16 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 02 December 2020 16:14 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 03 December 2020 10:04 |
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Re: Klefbom considering Injury Options |
By: Adam on Thu, 03 December 2020 10:59 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 03 December 2020 11:00 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 03 December 2020 15:41 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 03 December 2020 15:35 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 03 December 2020 16:16 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 21 December 2020 12:39 |
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By: PlusOne on Mon, 21 December 2020 17:55 |
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By: Gator21 on Mon, 21 December 2020 19:36 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 21 December 2020 20:51 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 03 February 2021 15:19 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 03 February 2021 15:38 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 03 February 2021 16:08 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 03 February 2021 16:18 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 11 March 2021 13:36 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 11 March 2021 13:56 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 11 March 2021 14:35 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 11 March 2021 15:07 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 11 March 2021 15:55 |
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By: nullterm on Thu, 11 March 2021 14:59 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 25 March 2021 22:14 |
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Re: Klefbom considering Injury Options |
By: Adam on Fri, 26 March 2021 09:33 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 26 March 2021 09:57 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 26 March 2021 12:24 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 26 March 2021 16:16 |
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By: Mike on Wed, 10 November 2021 14:20 |
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By: jds308 on Wed, 10 November 2021 16:03 |
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By: jds308 on Wed, 10 November 2021 17:25 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 10 November 2021 17:41 |
