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 Adam
Messages: 6829
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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| Magnum wrote on Thu, 02 July 2020 16:18 |
| Adam wrote on Thu, 02 July 2020 15:06 |
| Magnum wrote on Thu, 02 July 2020 14:55 |
| mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 02 July 2020 14:50 |
| Magnum wrote on Thu, 02 July 2020 14:41 |
It's like it should have been from the start, keep people at high-risk out of harm's way and let everyone else choose it they want the elevated risk. We don't stop people from working in the logging industry (most dangerous industry, Fatal injuries per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers: 97.6, Covid UK [worst country]: 68/100K).
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That's what Sweden did... and it didn't turn out great, to be honest.
There's a lot of interests to balance and try and careful find the right weight for each. But it isn't out of place to the government to mandate certain temporary measures in the interest of public safety.
Ultimately people are going to make their own choices, but it isn't just deaths people should be concerned about (although they certainly should be concerned about that too). There's a lot of long-term damage that can be done, and in the case of athletes, it has the potential to be career-ending. It's low probability, but high stakes. I wouldn't fault any athlete for opting out for a season to protect their long-term career outlook.
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Oddly, it was better than Spain, the UK, Italy, and God knows how many other countries that did full shut downs.
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That's not really odd. Italy and Spain were both hit early, before the severity was really known. Their health systems were swamped before they did a shut down.
Sweden, like Canada, had the benefit of seeing what happened in other countries and adapting to that. The UK also didn't do a full shutdown early - they in fact said they were pursuing a herd immunity strategy at the point where other nations were shutting down. That went so poorly that they had to switch course.
As I've said before, with Sweden, if you compare it to the other Scandinavian countries, who got the first cases around the same time and who did shut downs as opposed to what Sweden did, the per capita cases and deaths are much worse for Sweden. Even the Swedish government has now said that their strategy was flawed, so unless you cherry pick stats, that is objectively not the best strategy to pursue.
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Again, it's not death that measures the effectiveness of a lock down. Do you understand that? If not, no point in reading further.
Cherry picking stats of five countries that did worse. Right. Why can you only compare the two neighbours? Because they're titled as Scandinavian? Talk about cherry picking.
You probably haven't looked at the excess death stats. Maybe do that, if you're worries about deaths. Sweden didn't do that poorly at all, except if you cherry pick the stats and focus on two countries because they're land masses are close. Here's the excess death stats.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Now, most of Sweden's population is closer to Belgium, Lituania, Latvia, The Netherlands, Poland, and German than it is to the population masses of Norway and/or Finland.
The reality is, is that if you look at Europe... or if you must, look a countries near the population centers of Sweden, then they maybe did slightly worse, but definitely not the worst, yet had the weakest lockdown. Why is that? Because they're Scandinavian is not an adequate answer, but it is an easy conclusion - albeit wrong.
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Ugh...I know it's a waste of my time to explain things in intricate detail when someone is trying hard not to listen, but there's more than geographical reasons to compare Sweden with the other Scandinavian countries - of which I include Denmark, who did shut down and has much better numbers than Sweden.
Death and infection rates are important and should both be looked at. If I had a ton of time, I'd try to find information on the speed of the spread too - it was that which forced the UK to take this more seriously as the number of cases ramped up quickly and forced them to change their tack.
You have listed several countries as close to your example, so let's look at them along with Finland, Denmark and Norway:
Sweden - 69,692 cases 5,370 deaths Cases/MM 6,901 Deaths/MM 532 Tests 519,113 Tests/MM 51,400 1st cases March 3rd
Finland - 7,236 cases 328 deaths Cases/MM 1,306 Deaths/MM 59 Tests 246,000 Test/MM 44,398 1st cases March 1st
Norway - 8,896 cases 251 deaths Cases /MM 1,641 Deaths/MM 46 Tests 338,860 Tests/MM 62,505 1st cases Feb 27th
Denmark - 12,794 cases 606 deaths Cases/MM 2,209 Deaths/MM 105 Tests 1,071,479 Test/MM 184,984 1st cases March 3rd
Belgium - 61,509 cases 9,754 deaths Cases/MM 5,307 Deaths/MM 842 Tests 1,239,232 Tests/MM 106,924 1st cases March 5th
Lithuania - 1,818 cases 78 deaths Cases/MM 668 Deaths/MM 29 Tests 428,238 Tests/MM 157,335 1st cases March 10th
Latvia - 1,121 cases 30 deaths Cases/MM 594 Deaths/MM 16 Tests 152,778 Test/MM 81,007 1st cases March 8th
Netherlands - 50,335 cases 6,113 deaths Cases/MM 2,938 Deaths/MM 357 Tests 616,376 Tests/MM 35,972 1st cases March 4th
Poland - 34,775 cases 1,477 deaths Cases/MM 919 Deaths/MM 39 Tests 1,546,510 Tests/MM 40,863 1st cases March 6th
Germany - 196,324 cases 9,061 deaths Cases/MM 2,343 Deaths/MM 108 Tests 5,873,563 Test/MM 70,103 1st cases March 5th
So, using the sample group you proposed, with my couple additions for Sweden's neighbours we see that Sweden is by far the hardest hit in cases per million, and 2nd only to Belgium in deaths per million. That's not a coincidence, and even the epidemiologist behind Sweden's strategy thinks that:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behin d-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong
Objectively you get worse results without the shut down. Can we please stop pretending that Sweden shows otherwise?
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: mad90 on Tue, 19 May 2020 21:46 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 20 May 2020 14:09 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 20 May 2020 14:49 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 20 May 2020 16:46 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 21 May 2020 11:27 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 21 May 2020 12:40 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 21 May 2020 13:04 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 21 May 2020 13:46 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 21 May 2020 13:53 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 25 May 2020 12:12 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 25 May 2020 13:08 |
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By: Kr55 on Sat, 13 June 2020 14:09 |
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By: Kr55 on Sun, 14 June 2020 09:59 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 15 June 2020 08:36 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 15 June 2020 09:14 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 15 June 2020 09:12 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 15 June 2020 09:22 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 15 June 2020 09:24 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: PlusOne on Mon, 15 June 2020 09:41 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 15 June 2020 11:43 |
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By: PlusOne on Mon, 15 June 2020 09:38 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Magnum on Mon, 15 June 2020 12:44 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Adam on Mon, 15 June 2020 13:07 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Magnum on Tue, 16 June 2020 08:44 |
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By: Xombie on Tue, 16 June 2020 09:51 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Magnum on Tue, 16 June 2020 12:26 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 16 June 2020 12:33 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Magnum on Tue, 16 June 2020 13:51 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 16 June 2020 14:02 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Magnum on Tue, 16 June 2020 14:30 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Adam on Tue, 16 June 2020 15:11 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Magnum on Tue, 16 June 2020 22:00 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 17 June 2020 15:30 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 17 June 2020 15:26 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 17 June 2020 20:18 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 10:23 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 12:02 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 12:15 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 11:29 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 11:41 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 11:44 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 11:55 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:43 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:59 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 11:45 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 11:55 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 12:00 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 14:09 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 14:20 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 14:25 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 15:08 |
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By: JPro on Fri, 19 June 2020 15:56 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 16:02 |
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By: JPro on Fri, 19 June 2020 16:16 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 16:26 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 19 June 2020 16:26 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 19 June 2020 16:28 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 22 June 2020 15:18 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 22 June 2020 15:55 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 23 June 2020 09:20 |
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By: Magnum on Mon, 22 June 2020 15:47 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 22 June 2020 16:55 |
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By: Magnum on Mon, 22 June 2020 20:41 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 22 June 2020 21:31 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 23 June 2020 10:06 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 25 June 2020 12:26 |
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By: NetBOG on Thu, 25 June 2020 12:38 |
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By: Gator21 on Fri, 26 June 2020 10:12 |
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By: Kr55 on Fri, 26 June 2020 10:42 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 26 June 2020 11:30 |
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By: Xombie on Fri, 26 June 2020 13:49 |
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By: Magnum on Thu, 02 July 2020 14:41 |
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By: Magnum on Thu, 02 July 2020 14:55 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 02 July 2020 15:06 |
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By: Magnum on Thu, 02 July 2020 16:18 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 02 July 2020 16:47 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 02 July 2020 20:33 |
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By: Gator21 on Fri, 03 July 2020 13:53 |
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By: Magnum on Fri, 03 July 2020 09:25 |
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By: NetBOG on Fri, 26 June 2020 15:38 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Adam on Tue, 30 June 2020 16:17 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 30 June 2020 16:14 |
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By: Magnum on Tue, 30 June 2020 16:54 |
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By: Adam on Tue, 30 June 2020 17:16 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 30 June 2020 17:49 |
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By: NetBOG on Tue, 30 June 2020 19:02 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 30 June 2020 19:56 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 01 July 2020 07:57 |
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By: Gator21 on Wed, 01 July 2020 10:37 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 01 July 2020 10:38 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 01 July 2020 13:43 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 01 July 2020 13:45 |
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By: JPro on Wed, 01 July 2020 10:47 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 01 July 2020 10:52 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 01 July 2020 10:50 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 01 July 2020 10:55 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 01 July 2020 11:01 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 01 July 2020 13:51 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 01 July 2020 14:00 |
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By: Magnum on Wed, 01 July 2020 14:34 |
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By: Gator21 on Wed, 01 July 2020 14:22 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 02 July 2020 11:40 |
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By: Adam on Thu, 02 July 2020 14:33 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 02 July 2020 15:11 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 02 July 2020 15:44 |
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By: Kr55 on Tue, 07 July 2020 12:55 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 13 July 2020 11:26 |
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By: Xombie on Wed, 08 July 2020 15:00 |
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By: JPro on Thu, 09 July 2020 13:11 |
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By: Adam on Mon, 13 July 2020 12:08 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 15 July 2020 22:12 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 23 July 2020 16:34 |
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By: Kr55 on Thu, 23 July 2020 22:38 |
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Re: Oilers pitch bid with government to host games |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 24 July 2020 09:22 |
