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Re: Oilers 2019 Training Camp Roster [message #743675 is a reply to message #743669 ]	Tue, 01 October 2019 15:23

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3764
Registered: January 2016

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Adam wrote on Tue, 01 October 2019 14:05

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 01 October 2019 12:42

You are basing your entire opinion on the idea that not a single guy in the Oilers bottom 6 will even have an average year. Most of the guys the Oilers have signed have scored 10 goals more than once. Many of them multiple times. If these guys were in their 30's then I would agree with you. Most of these guys are in their mid 20's so in their prime, should have lots of game left in them and because they are on 1 yr deals, should have a hell of a lot to play for. So you think NONE of them can have a decent year?

Except that isn't what I've said at all. I've pointed out that most of these guys don't have a track record for scoring at the NHL level.

Let's look at the forwards with goals scored last year (career high in brackets):

McDavid 41 (41)
Draisaitl 50 (50)
Nugent-Hopkins 28 (28)
Chiasson 22 (22)
Kassian 15 (15)
Granlund 12 (19)
Archibald 12 (12)
Sheahan (inj.) 9 (14)
Neal 7 (40)
Khaira 3 (11)
Cave 3 (3)
Jurco 0 (8) AHL last year
Nygard 0 (0) Sweden last year
Haas 0 (0) Switzerland last year
Russell 0 (0) AHL last year

So you're looking at a group where the top 5 scorers all scored their best ever last year. If that group scored 156 again this year, we should count ourselves lucky. It's more likely we'll see that cohort decline and maybe put up 135-140.

For the next group, we have three players who underperformed last year in Sheahan, Granlund and Neal. Maybe one or two of them can rebound. Archibald probably overachieved based on shot rates and shooting percentage. It would be great if he was a 10+ player again, but that's far from certain. Maybe there's 45-50 goals here, but that might be optimistic.

Khaira had one really good season, then a poor one for production last year. He's probably somewhere in between.

The last 5 players have 25 NHL goals to their name, all at ages 24 or older (22 of those are Jurco). How many goals do you reasonably think you can expect from that group? I think 15-20 would be a best case scenario.

Our defence has not produced a great amount of offence in recent years, and with the goaltending we've got, we're unlikely to be a league leader in goal prevention.

I think that Holland built an 85-point hockey team. He knows he won't be held accountable for this year because Chiarelli, and he's hoping he can build something better next year. You can even see it in his answers today:

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey /edmonton-oilers-gm-ken-holland-the-goal-here-is-to-be-in-th e-playoffs

He says over and over the goal is to "push for a playoff spot". That is a big tell. They don't see this as a playoff team, they think it's a win if they are just in the hunt and maybe they get lucky and get another high pick next year.

I know your automatic is to assume the absolute worst but you should read this article from Gregor.
https://oilersnation.com/2019/10/01/why-the-edmonton-oilers- can-make-the-playoffs/

Gregor is by no means an Oilers apologist. Far from it. What he says in this article is a lot of what I think.

Some main points.
Goaltending. I don't think the Oilers goaltending is elite, not close. But do I think it could be average? Yes. Gregor lists Koskinen stats through the first half of the season and he was in the middle of the pack. He faltered towards the end where the Oilers played the piss out of him. Where the big problem was, happened early when Talbot who in his 25 starts was below .900. If the Oilers are splitting the goaltending and both guys are just average which I think is realistic, they goaltending won't be that bad.

PK- They have been bad, really, really bad. In the past, the swapped out coaches and systems but the same guys were there. This year, they have new coaches, new systems but they also swapped out guy and brought in guys who are good at it. If the Oilers are just middle of the pack, they will drop their goals against a lot.

The scoring. He made a good point about the top 5 guys scoring. The Oilers had the 4th most goals scored by their top 5 guys in the league last year. I don't know if Leon will score 50 again but I could see him hover around 40 pretty easily. At some point McDavid will score 50. I don't see Nuge dropping down a ton, he's been a 20's guy most years. With 10 consecutive 20 goal seasons and the last one being 7, I see last year as an outlier and could easily see him score at least high teens. Will Chiasson score 22? No, could he score low teens? Easily. So I don't see a massive drop off from the top guys in goals from last year.

Depth scoring. They set a record with 43 goals out of the bottom 6. Will every bottom 6 guy - Granlund, Archibald, Sheahan- they signed not score 10 or more goals something they have done before? I doubt it. Will they have a player like Rieder set a record for not scoring? I doubt it. Do I think Khaira will only score 3 goals the whole year? I doubt it. Will who ever is on the roster over JP only score 4 goals for over half the season? I doubt it. Could we see a bunch of guys like Archibald, Granlund, Sheahan, Nygard, maybe Khaira, all score 10 goals? By NHL standards, that's not high end production.

So you should read the article. It's a good article. It's not an overly sunshine and rainbows article in my opinion. It's an article looking at the team logically and realizing that a lot of the things that happened last year, there is a very strong chance that is won't happen again. SO even if all the Oilers do is improve slightly and move towards mediocrity rather than bad, they will improve.

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