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Oilers » Oilers 2019 Training Camp Roster

Re: Oilers 2019 Training Camp Roster [message #743669 is a reply to message #743663 ]	Tue, 01 October 2019 14:05

Adam
Messages: 6866
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 01 October 2019 12:42

You are basing your entire opinion on the idea that not a single guy in the Oilers bottom 6 will even have an average year. Most of the guys the Oilers have signed have scored 10 goals more than once. Many of them multiple times. If these guys were in their 30's then I would agree with you. Most of these guys are in their mid 20's so in their prime, should have lots of game left in them and because they are on 1 yr deals, should have a hell of a lot to play for. So you think NONE of them can have a decent year?

Except that isn't what I've said at all. I've pointed out that most of these guys don't have a track record for scoring at the NHL level.

Let's look at the forwards with goals scored last year (career high in brackets):

McDavid 41 (41)
Draisaitl 50 (50)
Nugent-Hopkins 28 (28)
Chiasson 22 (22)
Kassian 15 (15)
Granlund 12 (19)
Archibald 12 (12)
Sheahan (inj.) 9 (14)
Neal 7 (40)
Khaira 3 (11)
Cave 3 (3)
Jurco 0 (8) AHL last year
Nygard 0 (0) Sweden last year
Haas 0 (0) Switzerland last year
Russell 0 (0) AHL last year

So you're looking at a group where the top 5 scorers all scored their best ever last year. If that group scored 156 again this year, we should count ourselves lucky. It's more likely we'll see that cohort decline and maybe put up 135-140.

For the next group, we have three players who underperformed last year in Sheahan, Granlund and Neal. Maybe one or two of them can rebound. Archibald probably overachieved based on shot rates and shooting percentage. It would be great if he was a 10+ player again, but that's far from certain. Maybe there's 45-50 goals here, but that might be optimistic.

Khaira had one really good season, then a poor one for production last year. He's probably somewhere in between.

The last 5 players have 25 NHL goals to their name, all at ages 24 or older (22 of those are Jurco). How many goals do you reasonably think you can expect from that group? I think 15-20 would be a best case scenario.

Our defence has not produced a great amount of offence in recent years, and with the goaltending we've got, we're unlikely to be a league leader in goal prevention.

I think that Holland built an 85-point hockey team. He knows he won't be held accountable for this year because Chiarelli, and he's hoping he can build something better next year. You can even see it in his answers today:

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey /edmonton-oilers-gm-ken-holland-the-goal-here-is-to-be-in-th e-playoffs

He says over and over the goal is to "push for a playoff spot". That is a big tell. They don't see this as a playoff team, they think it's a win if they are just in the hunt and maybe they get lucky and get another high pick next year.

[Updated on: Tue, 01 October 2019 14:06]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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