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Adam Messages: 6866
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 21 June 2019 16:28 |
What's JP worth then?
He was taken 4th overall. It's obvious that regardless of how he was developed, the Oilers scouts and many other scouts from other teams made a mistake in ranking him as high as he was. When you are drafted in the top 5, you should be a star player. Surely to god, you can't think he would be a star player even if the Oilers developed him perfectly. It's not there man. You are never getting a 4th overall pick for him EVER. It's gone.
So what's he worth?
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A) The Oilers didn't make a mistake drafting him. It wasn't a ranking error. That's a consensus top 3 pick and they got him at #4. Your whole narrative on this is dead wrong and I've shown that again and again and again. Remember the posts where I showed several other top five picks that didn't become really good NHLers for 5+ years after their draft? Remember the list of pre-draft rankings where he was never below #3?
B) No one is giving up a fourth overall pick for him, but hey, it was only four years ago that we saw a struggling former fourth overall pick get the 15th and 31st picks for the Islanders...
C) I don't think there's much of a market for Puljujarvi right now. I think you probably can't get much more than a second rounder or a third or fourth line player for him. So I WOULD NOT trade him. There's no rush here to flush the asset.
That's not a good return, he's very young and capable of significant growth yet, and you aren't getting any immediate value from a 2nd round pick anyhow. It's got no better chances of turning in to something, so why just shift the risk - especially since you'd show players that all they need to do to get out is threaten the team that you won't play.
D) Finally look at it from a probability standpoint as if you are a GM. There's four possibilities here:
1. Puljujarvi outperforms 2nd round pick - you look awful. This is actually pretty likely. He's already an NHLer, and with a good organization, probably sees significant improvement. If he gets any powerplay time at all - which makes sense for a big right shot winger - he probably puts up points at a higher rate than he has to now.
2. 2nd round pick outperforms Puljujarvi. You look great...buuuuut it's taken 4-5 years to get there, and many people don't even remember how you acquired the player. If you polled normal Oilers fans (ie not the superfans on this site), I bet you'd find many don't know who we dealt to get the Klefbom pick...and that's a good example. Five years later, it finally started to look like a good trade. It's also not good odds of this scenario happening. The Oilers have literally picked a couple better players than #98 in 20 years worth of 2nd round picks. You've got a 10% chance of this working out, and that's assuming he doesn't rebound somewhere else and play another 15 seasons. If he rebounds and is even a third liner, your chances of outperform drop significantly.
3. Both 2nd round pick and Puljujarvi don't amount to anything. You look meh. The organization still looks bad for flushing yet another promising prospect, and no one remembers the 2nd round pick's name.
4. Both Puljujarvi and the 2nd round pick pan out. You look terrible, because Puljujuarvi is likely to pan out much before 2nd round pick does. People wonder what you were thinking trading him so fast when you could have tried to convince him to come back or let him increase his value first. By the time 2nd round pick is anything, you've already been branded the loser.
The best play, the least risky play, is to keep him now, rather than selling low.
"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky
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Puljujarvi wants out. |
By: g2k on Wed, 19 June 2019 11:51 |
Re: Puljujarvi wants out. |
By: Kr55 on Wed, 19 June 2019 11:55 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 19 June 2019 16:21 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 19 June 2019 12:55 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 19 June 2019 16:32 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 19 June 2019 16:36 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 19 June 2019 16:43 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 19 June 2019 16:59 |
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By: Adam on Wed, 19 June 2019 17:01 |
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By: Kr55 on Wed, 19 June 2019 17:03 |
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By: Mike on Wed, 19 June 2019 17:52 |
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By: Lew19 on Wed, 19 June 2019 18:42 |
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By: Xombie on Wed, 19 June 2019 18:58 |
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By: overdue on Wed, 19 June 2019 20:15 |
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By: Jakey on Wed, 19 June 2019 20:33 |
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By: Steve on Thu, 20 June 2019 10:33 |
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By: Jay on Fri, 21 June 2019 09:20 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 21 June 2019 15:58 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 21 June 2019 16:58 |
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Re: Puljujarvi wants out. |
By: Adam on Fri, 21 June 2019 19:14 |
Re: Puljujarvi wants out. |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 21 June 2019 21:55 |