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 Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver
1 Cup
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| Adam wrote on Thu, 21 July 2016 07:42 |
There is certainly some hyperbole out there. I think Larsson is a top-60 defenceman, which makes him a first pairing guy. I don't think he's likely to ever convince me that trading Hall was worth it or a good deal.
I'm guessing WhoreableGuy chose 6-years as a random metric, but if you want to look at it a few ways:
Last Year: 1. Taylor Hall (65) 2. Leon Draisaitl (51) 3. Connor McDavid (48)
Last 2 Years: 1. Jordan Eberle (110) 2. Taylor Hall (103) 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (90)
Last 3 Years: 1. Taylor Hall (183) 2. Jordan Eberle (175) 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (146)
Last 4 Years: 1. Taylor Hall (233) 2. Jordan Eberle (212) 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (170)
Last 5 Years: 1. Jordan Eberle (288) 2. Taylor Hall (286) 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (222)
Last 6 Years: 1. Jordan Eberle (331) 2. Taylor Hall (328) 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (222)
In the last 6 years, there's only been four other players outside of those three to score 100+ points with the team - Gagner (164 in 4 seasons), Hemsky (124 in four seasons), Yakupov (111 in four seasons) and Schultz (105 in four seasons). Part of that is definitely due to turnover, but it shows just how important Hall and Eberle have been to the Oilers. Both are underappreciated now, in large part because they've been part of so many losses.
I think it's pretty fair to be upset about trading a guy who's put up those kind of numbers for a defenceman with 69 career points in 274 games. Best case scenario is that it doesn't look like highway robbery some day. It's unlikely that people will ever look back and say it's a great trade for the Oilers though. I think it's much more likely people say that about the Devils.
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For sure I understand why people are upset. My first thought was that this trade was a total disaster. Most of that came from not having any idea what Larsson was about. The more I look into him, the more that I feel better about the trade. Maybe it's naive optimism, but I actually think he's going to be a really big help to the Oilers, even if he never scores 60 points in a season (or even 50. I think he can get to 40, but keep in mind only 26 defencemen reached that level last year).
I realize that I'm in the minority in that I think the Oilers are a better team today than they were 2 months ago. And that's not a slight on Hall. He's obviously a fantastic player.
I think where I get most tripped up, is all of the talk out in the blogosphere that Chiarelli would have been better off to do nothing rather than make this trade. Not to say that that's not a valid opinion, but it's attached to the idea that they would have been perfectly happy if that were the case and that they wouldn't have ripped Chiarelli at all for doing nothing. I don't think that Chiarelli should be doing stuff to appease the bloggers or fans, but I think it speaks to the difficulty of the situation that he was in. I just find it annoying that the same guys that are ripping Chiarelli the hardest on twitter and on their blogs are the same guys that would have ripped him the most if he hadn't done anything, or just tinkered around the edges.
He knew he wanted (had) to improve the defence. According to corsica.hockey the Oilers were 9th in the league last year in xGF at even strength (which estimates how many goals you should have scored based on shot number, type and location) and 24th in xGA, and 26th in shots against. We know that Larsson has a positive impact on the both of these metrics and I think will help immensely in this regard. And I think it's important to provide support to Talbot, so that we don't end up with the next Dubnyk, Scrivens, Fasth, etc. I think there's at least some evidence that after Demers visited it became apparent that he wasn't going to sign here. We don't really know what the situation was with respect to a trade for Subban, but it sounds like the ask was very high (although I still may have made that trade instead, although the cap implications are also a factor there for sure). We also know that there is evidence that the Oilers tried to get Hamonic out of NY, even offering Hall, and the Islanders turned them down. So it's not like the Oilers just made the first trade that came across their desk.
https://fansided.com/2016/07/03/nhl-trade-rumors-oilers-offe red-islanders-taylor-hall-travis-hamonic/
The best argument that I've seen that the Oilers should have stood pat was basically that if you build the top 9 as follows:
Pouliot/Nuge/Ebs - proven line that has played against top comp in the past and post a positive GF/GA ratio.
Hall/Drai/Yak - Hall/Drai were fantastic together and posted a positive GF/GA ratio. They played mostly with Purcell until the deadline, but Yak shouldn't drag them below 50%
Maroon/McDavid/Puljujarvi - get the softest minutes and eat 3rd line forwards and 2nd/3rd pairing defencemen for lunch. And if opposing coaches key in on this line on the road, the other two lines take advantage of the easier minutes.
If the Oilers have three lines outscoring the opponents, there's no way the 4th line is enough to drag them down below 50% overall in GF/GA ratio and really that's the whole point of hockey - score more goals than the other guys.
It's a strong argument, but I think there are a few issues:
- goaltending is the great equalizer. And if Talbot falls prey to the same demons that afflicted the past 8 or 12 goalies here because they are getting peppered by Grade A scoring chances every night, then that's an issue.
- it's a cliche, but defence wins championships. The above scenario is a great theory, but teams just don't win Cups without either a stud on defence or a solid group that goes 6 deep - the Oilers have neither. They are not perfect yet, but much closer than they were.
- Klefbom's injury history concerns me. I think he's a great player and I think him and Larsson can be a really great pair. But if he gets injured again, the whole system is chaos. Having a legit 1st pairing guy on the right side provides some insurance against that, as the Oilers are much deeper on the left side and can slide guys up much more easily now that they have an anchor on the right side.
- The cap has to be a consideration. Klef/Larsson now represent a very good value legitimate 1st pair. Not that Hall's contract wasn't good value, but it was higher in absolute terms, which makes the issue even more complex.
Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games
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Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:42 |
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By: Mike on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:46 |
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By: Steve on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:49 |
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By: Gator21 on Fri, 24 June 2016 19:23 |
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By: jds308 on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:49 |
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By: Gator21 on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:52 |
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By: Magnum on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:09 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 24 June 2016 17:51 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 27 June 2016 11:49 |
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By: Kr55 on Mon, 27 June 2016 12:11 |
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By: Goose on Wed, 29 June 2016 10:45 |
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By: OilPeg on Wed, 29 June 2016 13:29 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:10 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:13 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: MJ on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:24 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: jds308 on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:33 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: jds308 on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:50 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: NetBOG on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:57 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Mon, 27 June 2016 10:36 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: JPro on Fri, 24 June 2016 18:46 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 24 June 2016 23:58 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Sat, 25 June 2016 09:11 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Gator21 on Sat, 25 June 2016 14:58 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 06 March 2020 14:36 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Mon, 27 June 2016 10:20 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Mon, 27 June 2016 22:45 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Wed, 20 July 2016 17:36 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Skoobz on Wed, 20 July 2016 19:25 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Wed, 20 July 2016 20:57 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Thu, 21 July 2016 08:42 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Thu, 21 July 2016 10:37 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: OilPeg on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:01 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: PlusOne on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:20 |
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By: Goose on Thu, 21 July 2016 13:40 |
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By: Steve on Thu, 21 July 2016 14:32 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 26 August 2016 09:12 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 26 August 2016 10:06 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Magnum on Fri, 26 August 2016 10:49 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 26 August 2016 10:21 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 06 March 2020 14:41 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Sun, 17 December 2017 10:23 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 18 January 2019 11:39 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 12:46 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 18 January 2019 12:44 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 12:51 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 13:13 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Goose on Fri, 18 January 2019 13:22 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Kr55 on Fri, 18 January 2019 14:41 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 16:38 |
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By: g2k on Fri, 18 January 2019 19:24 |
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By: NetBOG on Fri, 18 January 2019 19:39 |
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By: g2k on Fri, 18 January 2019 20:26 |
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By: Adam on Fri, 18 January 2019 21:38 |
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By: Adam on Sun, 20 January 2019 00:50 |
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By: g2k on Sun, 20 January 2019 07:13 |
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Re: Oilers select 1st rd (#4) - Jesse Puljujarvi |
By: Xombie on Fri, 18 January 2019 20:38 |
