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 Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518182]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:09 Go to previous message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff

3 Cups

From The Flying Stortini:

So to sum up the last couple of days:

Out:
Lubo, Grebs, Staios

In:
Whitney, Johnson, Jones, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, ~ 10 Million.

I gotta say, that doesn't look that bad. There's a lot of threads of people throwing Tambo under the bus, but I don't know if it's really warranted.

Thoughts? Am I missing anything?



This brilliant post got me thinking

What did we give up as a whole and what did we get back as a whole.

Out: Lubo, Grebs, Staios

In: Whitney, Johnson, Jones, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, ~ 10 Million.


Lubo, Grebs, and Staios are all assets, in that they are all NHL ready players.

The NHL ready assets Edmonton got back are Whitney and Johnson. I think Nashville may have "waived" Jones as the second half of the Grebs deal, but then why they didn't just send him over, I don't know, maybe they did legitimately waive him, not altogether important.

Of the three picks Edmonton got, one, maybe two, become NHL assets, maybe there is a Shea Weber in there, maybe there is nothing, but more draft picks improves Edmonton’s opportunity for lucky picks.

What does 10 million give us? A better question is, what does getting rid of $10 million give us?

For that, we need an appraisal of each player we let go.

My thoughts on the value of Lubo is that he is a $4 million dollar D-Man on average for the next three years, so let’s say his value is $4 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.


Net savings on Lubo:

Lubo cap hit $5.6 million
Lubo value $4.0 million
Value added $1.6 million

My thoughts on the value of Grebs is that he is a $1.5 million dollar D-Man on average for the next two years, and $2.0 million afterwards, so let's say his value is $1.75 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.


Net savings on Grebs:

Grebs estimated cap hit $3.5 million
Grebs value $1.75 million
Value added $1.75 million

My thoughts on the value of Staios is that he is a $2.5 million dollar D-Man on average for the next two years, so let’s say his value is $2.5 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.


Net savings on Staios:

Staios cap hit $2.7 million
Staios value $2.5 million
Value added $0.2 million

Now on to the players we got in return.

Johnson is a wash as we will have to resign him next year, if we do, I assume it will be at market value, so no adjustment there.

Jones I'll assume the same.

My thoughts on the value of Whitney is that he is a $2 million to $5 million dollar D-Man, and as such I'll go with the mid-point of $3.5 million, so his value is say $3.5 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.

Net cost on Whitney:

Whitney cap hit $4.0 million
Whitney value $3.5 million
Value added -$0.5 million

So to sum up, we got:

Greb cap relief - $1.75
Visnovski cap relief - $1.60
Staios cap relief - $0.20
Whitney cap wastage - ($0.5)
Total cap relief - $3.05

Again, total cap relief or increased cap efficiency of $3.05 million. Note, that this does not mean we are better, it only means we are in a better cap position, if we don't get the replacement players, or if we sign replacement players to contracts that are too high, then we've saved nothing. But for today, we are better off than yesterday.

At the end of the season, Tambo has $11.8 million to make this team better ($5.6 + $2.7 + $3.5). That is if Johnson leaves we have approximately $11.8 million to replace two D-Men, if he stays, approximately $10.5 for one D-Man (I’ve estimated Johnson’s salary to be $1.3 million next year).

Overall we are:

1. Down one D-Man.
2. Down graded on the quality of two D-Men.
3. Up $10.5 million in cap space.
4. Up a tough winger.
5. Up a 2nd, 3rd and 7th round draft pick.

I believe 1, 2 , 3 and 4 wash out to cap efficiency of the $3.05 while the draft picks stand alone in their value. So I think we have a net value increase of:

$3.05 cap hit + 2nd, 3rd, and 6th

Which in my opinion = Good job Tambo.



2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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