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 Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786407]
Tue, 25 May 2021 12:10 Go to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
Messages: 16776
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Well, season is over and the management have shown themselves to be prescient with their prediction that this wasn't the year for the team! Their media handlers are already presenting that it's okay because we have a lot of cap space and now can spend our way out of all our problems. So what do you think they do? I've decided to put what I think they do, as opposed to what they SHOULD do. Here's the UFAs for this year: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2022?signing- status=ufa

With no further ado - here's how I think Kenny spends his summer.

Goal
- Buy-out Koskinen
- Sign Mike Smith - 1 year, $4.5MM
- Sign Petr Mrazek - 2 years, $4.0MM (lower 1st year, higher second year)

Defence
- Lose Barrie to free agency, lose Jones to expansion draft
- Re-Sign Adam Larsson - 4 years, $4.5MM
- Re-Sign Slater Koekkoek - 1 year, $1.2MM
- Hope Klefbom is alright and isn't picked up by Vegas
- I pray they don't spend a bunch of money on an Eric Gudbranson type for the third pairing...to break up the cycle.

Forward
- Ennis, Chiasson, Nygard walk as a UFA
- Kahun re-signed at almost the same rate
- Re-sign Nugent-Hopkins, 5 years, $5.5MM
- Haas re-ups at similar dollars. Heaven help me if Patrick Russell gets re-inked too.
- Khaira gets another deal, not a big raise.
- Yamamoto gets a 2 year deal at $2.5MM
- Turris may also get bought out

All of a sudden we don't have a lot more room - that's $23MM accounted for already. This gives the team the cover it needs to not go get Taylor Hall. They don't like revisiting past mistakes, so no one calls him. They may have enough money to get Glendening to a nice contract. After that, they still lack punch and they don't want to get skewered for not doing anything, so it's time for a trade.

I say Bear dealt for Jake DeBrusk. Bring in the kid of Oilers alumni - that's always popular. He's got a little grit to his game and has scored some points. Of course, it opens up a hole on right D, even if we bring in Bouchard, so maybe Gudbranson DOES get an offer with whatever money we have left.

DeBrusk McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Yamamoto
McLeod Glendening Kassian
Shore Khaira Archibald
Neal, Benson or Marody

Nurse Bouchard
Klefbom Larsson
Koekkoek Gudbranson
Russell

Smith
Mrazek




"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786409 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 12:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Looking ready for a first round sweep in 2022!


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786412 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 12:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20289
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Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 12:10

Well, season is over and the management have shown themselves to be prescient with their prediction that this wasn't the year for the team! Their media handlers are already presenting that it's okay because we have a lot of cap space and now can spend our way out of all our problems. So what do you think they do? I've decided to put what I think they do, as opposed to what they SHOULD do. Here's the UFAs for this year: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2022?signing- status=ufa

With no further ado - here's how I think Kenny spends his summer.

Goal
- Buy-out Koskinen
- Sign Mike Smith - 1 year, $4.5MM
- Sign Petr Mrazek - 2 years, $4.0MM (lower 1st year, higher second year)

Defence
- Lose Barrie to free agency, lose Jones to expansion draft
- Re-Sign Adam Larsson - 4 years, $4.5MM
- Re-Sign Slater Koekkoek - 1 year, $1.2MM
- Hope Klefbom is alright and isn't picked up by Vegas
- I pray they don't spend a bunch of money on an Eric Gudbranson type for the third pairing...to break up the cycle.

Forward
- Ennis, Chiasson, Nygard walk as a UFA
- Kahun re-signed at almost the same rate
- Re-sign Nugent-Hopkins, 5 years, $5.5MM
- Haas re-ups at similar dollars. Heaven help me if Patrick Russell gets re-inked too.
- Khaira gets another deal, not a big raise.
- Yamamoto gets a 2 year deal at $2.5MM
- Turris may also get bought out

All of a sudden we don't have a lot more room - that's $23MM accounted for already. This gives the team the cover it needs to not go get Taylor Hall. They don't like revisiting past mistakes, so no one calls him. They may have enough money to get Glendening to a nice contract. After that, they still lack punch and they don't want to get skewered for not doing anything, so it's time for a trade.

I say Bear dealt for Jake DeBrusk. Bring in the kid of Oilers alumni - that's always popular. He's got a little grit to his game and has scored some points. Of course, it opens up a hole on right D, even if we bring in Bouchard, so maybe Gudbranson DOES get an offer with whatever money we have left.

DeBrusk McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Yamamoto
McLeod Glendening Kassian
Shore Khaira Archibald
Neal, Benson or Marody

Nurse Bouchard
Klefbom Larsson
Koekkoek Gudbranson
Russell

Smith
Mrazek





Seems all reasonable, except we likely ice this with that group:

Draisaitl -McDavid Puljujarvi
DeBrusk -Nugent-Hopkins Yamamoto
McLeod Glendening Kassian
Shore Khaira Archibald

Nurse Gudbranson
Klefbom Larsson
Koekkoek Russell
Bouchard

Smith (60% games)
Mrazek (40%)


Ready to destroy Vegas to win the division! The wait was worth it



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786415 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 12:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7180
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 12:10

Well, season is over and the management have shown themselves to be prescient with their prediction that this wasn't the year for the team! Their media handlers are already presenting that it's okay because we have a lot of cap space and now can spend our way out of all our problems. So what do you think they do? I've decided to put what I think they do, as opposed to what they SHOULD do. Here's the UFAs for this year: https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2022?signing- status=ufa

With no further ado - here's how I think Kenny spends his summer.

Goal
- Buy-out Koskinen
- Sign Mike Smith - 1 year, $4.5MM
- Sign Petr Mrazek - 2 years, $4.0MM (lower 1st year, higher second year)

Defence
- Lose Barrie to free agency, lose Jones to expansion draft
- Re-Sign Adam Larsson - 4 years, $4.5MM
- Re-Sign Slater Koekkoek - 1 year, $1.2MM
- Hope Klefbom is alright and isn't picked up by Vegas
- I pray they don't spend a bunch of money on an Eric Gudbranson type for the third pairing...to break up the cycle.

Forward
- Ennis, Chiasson, Nygard walk as a UFA
- Kahun re-signed at almost the same rate
- Re-sign Nugent-Hopkins, 5 years, $5.5MM
- Haas re-ups at similar dollars. Heaven help me if Patrick Russell gets re-inked too.
- Khaira gets another deal, not a big raise.
- Yamamoto gets a 2 year deal at $2.5MM
- Turris may also get bought out

All of a sudden we don't have a lot more room - that's $23MM accounted for already. This gives the team the cover it needs to not go get Taylor Hall. They don't like revisiting past mistakes, so no one calls him. They may have enough money to get Glendening to a nice contract. After that, they still lack punch and they don't want to get skewered for not doing anything, so it's time for a trade.

I say Bear dealt for Jake DeBrusk. Bring in the kid of Oilers alumni - that's always popular. He's got a little grit to his game and has scored some points. Of course, it opens up a hole on right D, even if we bring in Bouchard, so maybe Gudbranson DOES get an offer with whatever money we have left.

DeBrusk McDavid Puljujarvi
Nugent-Hopkins Draisaitl Yamamoto
McLeod Glendening Kassian
Shore Khaira Archibald
Neal, Benson or Marody

Nurse Bouchard
Klefbom Larsson
Koekkoek Gudbranson
Russell

Smith
Mrazek



If you are going to start another "Oilers management are the stupidest people in the world", ridiculous go off the deep end threat, why stop at 1 year for Smith. Why not 2 or 3 yearS?



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786417 is a reply to message #786415 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 13:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
Messages: 16776
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 12:42


If you are going to start another "Oilers management are the stupidest people in the world", ridiculous go off the deep end threat, why stop at 1 year for Smith. Why not 2 or 3 yearS?


So you're on record then as saying this is a stupid course of action?

Also what do YOU think Holland will do with all this wonderful cap space?



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786420 is a reply to message #786417 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 13:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7180
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Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 13:08

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 12:42


If you are going to start another "Oilers management are the stupidest people in the world", ridiculous go off the deep end threat, why stop at 1 year for Smith. Why not 2 or 3 yearS?


So you're on record then as saying this is a stupid course of action?

Also what do YOU think Holland will do with all this wonderful cap space?

I am not as negative as you are, so I am really not going to get to much into why the Oilers are the stupidest people on the planet talk again for the 1000th time. But to answer your specific question on Smith, I do not know if they will resign Smith, it's 50-50 in my mind but even if they ignore his age and sign him which I think is the wrong move, I don't see them giving him 3 times what he's making right now. I know he had a good year, but he's going to be 40. I don't even think he would ask for that much.

So if you want to have a sane discussion about what fans would like to see or what I think they might do, then start a new thread and leave his ridiculousness here. But I am not interesting in discussing how the Oilers are going to give a 6-7 dman in Koekkoek who played 18 games an almost 1.5 times raise or how Larsson is going to get 1 mill more than anyone including senile Matheseon thinks will get.

[Updated on: Tue, 25 May 2021 13:53]


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786431 is a reply to message #786420 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 13:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
Messages: 16776
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 13:22

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 13:08

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 12:42


If you are going to start another "Oilers management are the stupidest people in the world", ridiculous go off the deep end threat, why stop at 1 year for Smith. Why not 2 or 3 yearS?


So you're on record then as saying this is a stupid course of action?

Also what do YOU think Holland will do with all this wonderful cap space?

I am not as negative as you are, so I am really not going to get to much into why the Oilers are the stupidest people on the planet talk again for the 1000th time. But to answer your specific question on Smith, I do not know if they will resign Smith, it's 50-50 in my mind but even if they ignore his age and sign him which I think is the wrong, I don't see them giving him 3 times what he's making right now. I know he had a good year, but he's going to be 40. I don't even think he would ask for that much.

So if you want to have a sane discussion about what fans would like to see or what I think they might do, then start a new thread and leave his ridiculousness here. But I am not interesting in discussing how the Oilers are going to give a 6-7 dman in Koekkoek who played 18 games an almost 1.5 times raise or how Larsson is going to get 1 mill more than anyone including senile Matheson thinks will get.


That's great news. Hopefully you're right and everyone talking up how valuable Larsson is over the last month hasn't increased the price. Holland hasn't been known for being a great negotiator, and when he's had cap space, he's tended to do foolish things.

I do think Smith shouldn't get a big raise. I think he will both get re-signed and I think he'll get a big raise...surprisingly big. There are other better options given his age, but I think the Oilers will buy in to the idea that he's figured out hockey at age 39 and that his intangibles in the locker room are too valuable to lose at this point.

If you're not going to contribute to the thread, I suggest you avoid it though.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786427 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 13:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Location: Vancouver

2 Cups

Might not happen this offseason, but is there any question at this point that Nurse is going to get 8x$8M at some point in the next year?


Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786432 is a reply to message #786427 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 13:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Goose wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 13:50

Might not happen this offseason, but is there any question at this point that Nurse is going to get 8x$8M at some point in the next year?


None. He's getting a massive payday.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786444 is a reply to message #786432 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 14:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 13:56

Goose wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 13:50

Might not happen this offseason, but is there any question at this point that Nurse is going to get 8x$8M at some point in the next year?


None. He's getting a massive payday.


100% and I support it after the season he had and the playoff he had. He’s made me a believer.



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Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786443 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 14:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hitmen4  is currently offline hitmen4
Messages: 22
Registered: April 2010

No Cups

My way too optimistic ideas:

Schwartz - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - Coleman
Stastny - McLeod - Yamamoto
Archibald - Kharia - Kassian

Extras: Haas, Nygard

Nurse - Dunn
Martinez - Larsson
Kulikov - Bouchard

Extras: Russell

Driedger
Smith


Forwards:
- Sign Coleman (3yrs, $3.5)
- Sign Schwartz (Barrie-esque, 1yr x $3.0)
- Sign Stastny (2yrs, $2.5)
- Re-sign Nuge (4yrs x $5.0)
- Re-sign Yamamoto (3yrs x $2.2)
- Re-sign Khaira (1yr x $1.0)
- Re-sign Nygaard (1yr x $0.750)
- Re-sign Haas (1yr x $0.750)
- Turris = Bakersfield
- All other FA and RFA walk

Defense:
- Trade Bear + Picks to STL for Dunn
- Sign Martinez (3yrs x $4.5)
- Re-sign Kulikov (1yrs x $1.5)
- Re-sign Larsson (3yrs x $3.5)
- Jones = Seattle.

Goal:
- Sign Driedger (3yrs x $3.0)
- Re-sign Smith (1yr x $1.5)

Use the 2021 or 2022 first round pick to move Neal. If Neal can't be moved, buy him out. I'm sure they can find a taker for Koskinen if a higher pick is thrown in. He could even work as a salary match in a hypothetical Kuemper trade.

If the money doesn't work, find a cheaper replacement for Nuge for the 2LW or replace with a cheaper internal option (Yamamoto, Holloway, etc.)




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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786454 is a reply to message #786443 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 15:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
Messages: 16776
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

hitmen4 wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 14:35

My way too optimistic ideas:

Schwartz - McDavid - Puljujarvi
Nuge - Draisaitl - Coleman
Stastny - McLeod - Yamamoto
Archibald - Kharia - Kassian

Extras: Haas, Nygard

Nurse - Dunn
Martinez - Larsson
Kulikov - Bouchard

Extras: Russell

Driedger
Smith


Forwards:
- Sign Coleman (3yrs, $3.5)
- Sign Schwartz (Barrie-esque, 1yr x $3.0)
- Sign Stastny (2yrs, $2.5)
- Re-sign Nuge (4yrs x $5.0)
- Re-sign Yamamoto (3yrs x $2.2)
- Re-sign Khaira (1yr x $1.0)
- Re-sign Nygaard (1yr x $0.750)
- Re-sign Haas (1yr x $0.750)
- Turris = Bakersfield
- All other FA and RFA walk

Defense:
- Trade Bear + Picks to STL for Dunn
- Sign Martinez (3yrs x $4.5)
- Re-sign Kulikov (1yrs x $1.5)
- Re-sign Larsson (3yrs x $3.5)
- Jones = Seattle.

Goal:
- Sign Driedger (3yrs x $3.0)
- Re-sign Smith (1yr x $1.5)

Use the 2021 or 2022 first round pick to move Neal. If Neal can't be moved, buy him out. I'm sure they can find a taker for Koskinen if a higher pick is thrown in. He could even work as a salary match in a hypothetical Kuemper trade.

If the money doesn't work, find a cheaper replacement for Nuge for the 2LW or replace with a cheaper internal option (Yamamoto, Holloway, etc.)




Not a bad roster, but...

Quick eyeball math says that's $32.2MM (unless I've made an error). Clearing Neal helps for some of it, but probably not all. Dunn's RFA too, so probably need to sign him and give him a raise.

Also I wonder what the record for most UFA players from other teams signed in a single-off-season Five semi-major signings and a trade would be a dramatic reconstruction of the team. I wonder if Holland has it in him. Usually the Oilers brass likes to have the lights off at Kingsway and head for their cottages by mid-July at latest.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786459 is a reply to message #786454 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 15:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hitmen4  is currently offline hitmen4
Messages: 22
Registered: April 2010

No Cups

Agreed - too many moves is probably unrealistic but I think multiple moves are required.

As for the cap, it works in CapFriendly by sending Turris to the minors, trading Neal (with a 1st round pick) and including Lagesson in any minor deal or losing on waivers. Those three additional moves give the Oilers roughly $2.5 in available cap space - and that is with Koskinen still on the team.

I'm very aware that it's not probable, however the numbers do work as long as I'm close on the projected cap hits for the UFAs.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786462 is a reply to message #786443 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 16:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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Nygard isn’t coming back. He’s heading back to the SHL;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coppernblue.com/platform/am p/2021/5/24/22451895/joakim-nygard-returning-to-sweden-for-2 021-22-season



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OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786464 is a reply to message #786462 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 16:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:26

Nygard isn’t coming back. He’s heading back to the SHL;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coppernblue.com/platform/am p/2021/5/24/22451895/joakim-nygard-returning-to-sweden-for-2 021-22-season


Considering the coach was just as likely to play Patrick Russell as him, I can't say I blame him for that decision.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786466 is a reply to message #786464 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 16:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:44

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:26

Nygard isn’t coming back. He’s heading back to the SHL;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coppernblue.com/platform/am p/2021/5/24/22451895/joakim-nygard-returning-to-sweden-for-2 021-22-season


Considering the coach was just as likely to play Patrick Russell as him, I can't say I blame him for that decision.


Agreed. Can’t blame him at all for it.

This team will be better when they don’t have the Patrick Russell’s of the world as their 13/14th forward.

Gonna try to make some sense of the offseason to come from a Musty angle, at some point here. Maybe after the kids are in bed tonight.



Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786469 is a reply to message #786466 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 17:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7180
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:51

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:44

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:26

Nygard isn’t coming back. He’s heading back to the SHL;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coppernblue.com/platform/am p/2021/5/24/22451895/joakim-nygard-returning-to-sweden-for-2 021-22-season


Considering the coach was just as likely to play Patrick Russell as him, I can't say I blame him for that decision.


Agreed. Can’t blame him at all for it.

This team will be better when they don’t have the Patrick Russell’s of the world as their 13/14th forward.

Gonna try to make some sense of the offseason to come from a Musty angle, at some point here. Maybe after the kids are in bed tonight.

I don't think he is an NHL player. The fact he didn't even wait until free agency to see if there was another opportunity with another team, tells me he feels the same. Not suited for the NHL. All good. It happens a lot.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786470 is a reply to message #786466 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 17:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20289
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:51

Adam wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:44

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:26

Nygard isn’t coming back. He’s heading back to the SHL;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coppernblue.com/platform/am p/2021/5/24/22451895/joakim-nygard-returning-to-sweden-for-2 021-22-season


Considering the coach was just as likely to play Patrick Russell as him, I can't say I blame him for that decision.


Agreed. Can’t blame him at all for it.

This team will be better when they don’t have the Patrick Russell’s of the world as their 13/14th forward.

Gonna try to make some sense of the offseason to come from a Musty angle, at some point here. Maybe after the kids are in bed tonight.


btw, are you all factoring in a PRussell raise in your cap calculations? I think he's earned one. Came close to scoring a goal that one time.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786471 is a reply to message #786462 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 17:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
Messages: 3470
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Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 25 May 2021 16:26

Nygard isn’t coming back. He’s heading back to the SHL;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coppernblue.com/platform/am p/2021/5/24/22451895/joakim-nygard-returning-to-sweden-for-2 021-22-season


They need to clear out a bunch of that bottom of the lineup. They were carrying more this year than normal because of the taxi squad, but I doubt we see P.Russell back either. We will see about Khaira, Haas, Chiasson, Kahun, and Ennis.

There was a lot of hype around Haas and Nygard, but not a lot of delivery in the two years they've been here.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786476 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 17:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently online CrusaderPi
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The real question is when does cottage time officially start? If they’re aggressive they can probably squeeze a solid 4-6 weeks in before the expansion draft kicks off the off-season movement window. So how would you plan it? Quick signing or two right now to let the fans know old Dutch is on the case while determining who your protected list is now (but not submitting it so you can leak how much time an effort was put in to its creation down the road). Or do you hit the lake now for 4 weeks and come back in early july refreshed and ready to go? This way you can get a couple easy signings made while leaking you spent a month working on them / preparing for expansion and free agency. It’s going to be a tough decision.

Do we know if tee times are available at predator ridge right now?



This is fine.

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786477 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 17:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Oilers Unrestricted Free Agents:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - depends on asking price, but I'd be reluctant to go higher than $5M at this point. RNH's has always been a little overrated in Edmonton, with last season being an abnormally high one for production (and this season being abnormally low). With him heading into his 30s, and with a spotty injury history, you want to be careful. That said, he plays a strong 200-foot game, and with Top-6 depth issues, he's one of the pieces that actually fits there. I'd make an effort, but I'd set a limit.

Alex Chiasson - complimentary piece, and a depth player than actually can put up a little offense occasionally. I'd look for an upgrade, but would circle back in mid-free agency if there is still room on the Oilers roster.

Tyler Ennis - I actually like him and think he was underused, but I also don't see Tippett using him more moving forward. Could circle back in mid-free agency again also.

Gaetan Haas - I always felt there should be more from Haas than he delivered... the toolset all seems to be there, but he is an offensive black hole. I'm letting him walk.

Joakim Nygard - Was barely on the Oilers this year. Signed in Europe, and I wouldn't have made an effort to re-sign him anyways.

Patrick Russell - Let him walk. This isn't an NHL player.

Adam Larsson - Re-sign him, but preferably in the 2-3 year range and in the $3.5-$4M range. He was brutal last year, and very good this year. The inconsistency should be a red flag for everyone, especially given his age and injury history. His play this year has earned him a new deal, but it's one that could go south at any moment.

Tyson Barrie - I think he will be beyond what Edmonton can afford, but they'd be crazy to not put an effort to sign him, even if it means going 4 RHD each night, or flipping Bear/Bouchard throughout the year. Last night he played 49 minutes, and was clearly someone Tippett leaned on a lot this year. Oh yeah, and he led all defenseman in scoring, on a 70-point pace in a full season. Oilers will miss him if he leaves.

Dmitry Kulikov - If either a) Klefbom isn't likely to return or b) Jones is lost to Seattle, I'd bring Kulikov back. I liked his steady game, and he and Larsson had great underlying numbers together. He is a cheap, reliable option for them, and was a good acquisition.

Slater Koekkoek - I didn't mind Koekkoek, and perhaps you revisit him mid-free agency if Klefbom is out, Barrie and Kulikov are gone, Jones is claimed, etc. I'd prefer him to Kris Russell, though there is a bit of a logjam at the bottom of the LHD side with Jones, Russell, and Lagesson all under contract right now (all of them are able to be buried in Bakersfield if needed however).

Mike Smith - I think you have to re-sign him. He played well. I don't have a lot of confidence in him maintaining that, and it could get ugly fast (like last year). But a 1-year contract with a base around $2M and performance bonuses seems fair. But they need a solid goaltender to tandem with him.

Alan Quine, Adam Cracknell, Joey Gambardella - Not brining any of them back.


Oilers Restricted Free Agents:

Jujhar Khaira - For me, I think this is the end of the road for JJ & the Oilers. He wasn't useless, but he was inconsistent and I don't think I'm brining him back as LH centre.

Dominik Kahun - The qualifying number is good, and while he didn't really show much in the Top-6, he's a nice option for injury coverage. I'd probably sign him, and if it come to it, bury him in Bakersfield. But he covers his contract with what he does.

Kailer Yamamoto - Bridge him.

Darnell Nurse - He's earned a big contract, and he'll get it. I would have preferred the Shea Theodore contract years ago, but here we are.

Devin Shore - Didn't realize Shore was an RFA, but I'd probably re-sign him as a 13/14th forward.

Cooper Marody - Re-sign him and make him earn a spot on the team. Could be a tween-player with no taxi-squad. I do wonder if he will go to Europe, however.

Tyler Benson - I think the Oilers will give him a chance to make the club next year. He's had another strong year in the AHL (along with Marody). May be the 13/14th guy next year with Shore.

Theodor Lennström - Given the logjam, I let him sign back in Europe.

Stuart Skinner - Didn't really look great in his first NHL game, but had a good year in Bakersfield. Could be a three-headed goalie monster there next year with Skinner, Konovalov, and Stalock, but I think Skinner's probably earned another contract.

Dylan Wells - Too many other goalie prospects ahead of him on the roster to re-sign him.


Rest of the roster:

I'm looking at unloading James Neal and Zack Kassian to anyone willing to take on those contracts. Mikko Koskinen is probably under-appreciated in Edmonton, but I'd be looking to move him as well for an upgrade if possible.

Kyle Turris, Kris Russell, William Lagesson, and Alex Stalock I'm looking at burying in Bakersfield. They could look at buying them out, but I'm not sure I want any of them dragging out into the following year.

Ideally, Ryan McLeod is starting the year in Bakersfield. He showed some good signs, but wasn't producing points, and didn't have Tippett's trust in big games. He's better served being a driving player in the AHL to start the year.


TLDR;

Re-sign: Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson, Barrie, Kulikov, Smith, Kahun, Shore, Yamamoto, Nurse, Marody, Benson, Skinner

Re-visit mid-offseason: Chiasson, Ennis, Koekkoek

Release: Haas, Nygard, P.Russell, Khaira, Quine, Cracknell, Gambardella, Lennström, Wells



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786484 is a reply to message #786477 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 20:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ragnarok73  is currently offline Ragnarok73
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Nurse isn't an UFA until the end of next season, so the Oil have time to negotiate a new contract with him, though it might be better to get it done now so that they could possibly get a better price per year on that contract. Russell is in the final year of his contract next year, so his cap hit will actually be quite low, low enough that I can live with him being a 7/8 guy on D for the Oil.

Barrie would be great to bring back, but you know some desperate team will offer him big term and money like the Sabres who have a ton of room and are trying to keep Eichel believing that they are actually trying to build a good team there. The Oil likely won't be outbidding anyone if the price for him goes above $5 million a year. Larsson should only be brought back if he is willing to settle for no more than $3 million/year. If Smith remains willing to stay for his current price, the Oil should keep him, because who else is there aside from Koskinen? It wouldn't make me lose sleep to see Kulikov and/or Koekkoek walk, though I'd be fine with them sticking around as long as the cap hits remain low as hell.

Among the forwards, the only UFA I'd like to see back is Nuge, but I fully agree that it should only be at a lower dollar amount per year (at least 1 million less). The rest of them can walk right off a cliff for all they contribute to depth scoring.



"There's no greater springboard to development than failure." - Craig MacTavish, April 13/15.

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786488 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Tue, 25 May 2021 22:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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Alright. Took out the Mustifier 2022 and fueled it up. Here’s what it’s readings are at the moment;

The Seattle Kraken select, from the Edmonton Oilers, forward Tyler Benson

Goaltending;
Koskinen-shopped aggressively (why does he have a M-NTC?) and moved with the 1st, James Neal and Caleb Jones for Darcy Kuemper and Phil Kessel
Smith-resigns 2 years, 2.5per
Stalock- AHL mentor and recall of issues arise

Kuemper 4.5
Smith 2.5
7M on goaltending

Defense;
Klefbom is back, ready to suit up
Larss-resigned for 3 years, 3per
Barrie- resigned, 3 years, 4.5per(unfinished business, loved his time here, gives another opportunity to make bank on a final contract when he’s 32)
Koekkoek- resigned, 2 years, 900Kper

Nurse 5.6 - Barrie 4.5
Klefbom 4.167 - Larss 3
Koekkoek 900K - Bear 2
Bouchard 863K

21.03M on defense

Forwards;
Kessel, stated above acquired in Koskinen deal, 6.8M(final year of deal btw)
Nuge, walks, to Ken’s office to sign a 3 year 4.5M per extension
Shore, RFA, resigns 2 year 900K per
Chiasson, signs in Montreal
Jujhar, signs in Vancouver
Ennis, resigns 1 year at 850K
Kahun, not qualified, goes East
Haas, goes back to Europe
PRuss, fired to the sun

Holland tries to move Kass, Boston wants Yamamoto and don’t budge, Yam and the 4th traded to Boston for Debrusk and their 2nd

Getzlaf signs 2 years at 1.75 per
Perry signs 1 year for 850K

Debrusk 3.675 - McDavid 12.5 - Kessel 6.8
Nuge 4.5 - Drai 8.5 - Puljujärvi 1.175
Holloway 925K - Getzlaf 2.25 - Kass 3.2
Perry 850K - McLeod 834K - Arch 1.5
Shore 900K, Ennis 850K

48.459M on forwards

7,000,000
+21,030,000
+48,469,000
=76,499,000

The Mustifier 2022 leaves approx 5M on the table



Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786501 is a reply to message #786488 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 03:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
clutchlikeeberle  is currently offline clutchlikeeberle
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No Cups

Unless I can add sweetener to make Seattle take one of Koskinan or Neal I buy them both out.

I like Holloway as my first line LW.

Holloway McDavid Pujavari

Nuge Drai Yamamoto

Hyman Philip Daneault Kassian

Archibald McLeod ???

Extras Fwd: Haas and Shore

Nurse Bouchard
Larssson and Klefbom
Koekkoek and Kulikov

Mike Smith
Stuart Skinner (it is time)

Hyman and Danuelt I sign for 5 mill per.
Nuge I sign for 6 mill per.
Larsson I sign for 4.5 per.
Koekkoek and Kulikov I sign for 1.5 per each on one year deals.
Mike Smith I sign for 3 mill one year.

Thats a total of 26.5 mill added. Which is doable.




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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786521 is a reply to message #786501 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 09:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jakey  is currently offline Jakey
Messages: 396
Registered: November 2007
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No Cups

Here is what I would like to see. Biggest Needs are 2 x top 9 LW (if Nuge doesn't return), 2 x Goalies, top 4 LD (Klefbom isn't coming back is my guess) & dumping Neal to Kraken with a big sweetener (otherwise getting bought out).

-Trade Samarukov & 2021 4th rd pick to Kraken so they take Neal
-Trade Benson & Skinner to Coyotes for Kuemper before the Expansion draft
-Trade Jones & 2022 3rd rd pick to Bruins for LW Debrusk after expansion draft (if Nuge goes to UFA market)
-bury Koskinen in the minors, save $1.05 Million in cap space
-bury Turris in the minors, save $1.05 Million in cap space
-Barrie signs elsewhere for 7 x $6.5 Million, probably Philly or Florida
-don't qualify Khaira, offer a 1 year $.900 K deal...let him walk if he doesn't take it
-don't qualify Kahun, let him walk
-offer Nuge 5 x $6 million max, if he doesn't want it...let him walk
-Offer UFA goalie Ullmark (Buf) a 3 x $3.5 Million contract to have a 1B goalie
-offer UFA LW Coleman 4 x $3 million deal, probably need to add 4th year to get him
-offer UFA LD Ryan Murray 2 x $4 million deal. Klefbom is done & Murray is substitute until Broberg is ready in 1-2 years.
-Yamomoto gets a 2 year bridge deal at 2 x $2.25 million
-Nurse gets a 8 x $8 million extension

That is my wish list. Hope some of that comes to fruition.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786522 is a reply to message #786521 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 09:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Jakey wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 09:30

Here is what I would like to see. Biggest Needs are 2 x top 9 LW (if Nuge doesn't return), 2 x Goalies, top 4 LD (Klefbom isn't coming back is my guess) & dumping Neal to Kraken with a big sweetener (otherwise getting bought out).

-Trade Samarukov & 2021 4th rd pick to Kraken so they take Neal
-Trade Benson & Skinner to Coyotes for Kuemper before the Expansion draft
-Trade Jones & 2022 3rd rd pick to Bruins for LW Debrusk after expansion draft (if Nuge goes to UFA market)
-bury Koskinen in the minors, save $1.05 Million in cap space
-bury Turris in the minors, save $1.05 Million in cap space
-Barrie signs elsewhere for 7 x $6.5 Million, probably Philly or Florida
-don't qualify Khaira, offer a 1 year $.900 K deal...let him walk if he doesn't take it
-don't qualify Kahun, let him walk
-offer Nuge 5 x $6 million max, if he doesn't want it...let him walk
-Offer UFA goalie Ullmark (Buf) a 3 x $3.5 Million contract to have a 1B goalie
-offer UFA LW Coleman 4 x $3 million deal, probably need to add 4th year to get him
-offer UFA LD Ryan Murray 2 x $4 million deal. Klefbom is done & Murray is substitute until Broberg is ready in 1-2 years.
-Yamomoto gets a 2 year bridge deal at 2 x $2.25 million
-Nurse gets a 8 x $8 million extension

That is my wish list. Hope some of that comes to fruition.



Who's the 1A goalie?

And Ryan Murray? Isn't he a walking Band-Aid?



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786525 is a reply to message #786521 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 09:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20289
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Jakey wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 09:30

Here is what I would like to see. Biggest Needs are 2 x top 9 LW (if Nuge doesn't return), 2 x Goalies, top 4 LD (Klefbom isn't coming back is my guess) & dumping Neal to Kraken with a big sweetener (otherwise getting bought out).

-Trade Samarukov & 2021 4th rd pick to Kraken so they take Neal
-Trade Benson & Skinner to Coyotes for Kuemper before the Expansion draft
-Trade Jones & 2022 3rd rd pick to Bruins for LW Debrusk after expansion draft (if Nuge goes to UFA market)
-bury Koskinen in the minors, save $1.05 Million in cap space
-bury Turris in the minors, save $1.05 Million in cap space
-Barrie signs elsewhere for 7 x $6.5 Million, probably Philly or Florida
-don't qualify Khaira, offer a 1 year $.900 K deal...let him walk if he doesn't take it
-don't qualify Kahun, let him walk
-offer Nuge 5 x $6 million max, if he doesn't want it...let him walk
-Offer UFA goalie Ullmark (Buf) a 3 x $3.5 Million contract to have a 1B goalie
-offer UFA LW Coleman 4 x $3 million deal, probably need to add 4th year to get him
-offer UFA LD Ryan Murray 2 x $4 million deal. Klefbom is done & Murray is substitute until Broberg is ready in 1-2 years.
-Yamomoto gets a 2 year bridge deal at 2 x $2.25 million
-Nurse gets a 8 x $8 million extension

That is my wish list. Hope some of that comes to fruition.



Work out the end cap hit for that? Any cash left for another top 6 forward? :)

Like a lot of it, hope it would be that straightforward to fix the G position and Seattle would be game for that kind of offer to take Neal. Like Adam said, Murray might be a risky choice, but probably other D we could look at.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786528 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 10:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
Messages: 3029
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask

3 Cups

This is one of my love/hate threads of the year. I hate that we have it every year after a disappointing end. I love the ideas and suggestions. I dont look much into potentiall FA's or even trade targets during the season so this gets the juices flowing.
Much like the draft chatter and minor league threads. I appreciate those as well given I barely pay attention to that stuff myself and love that others do.
It is also a great thread to revisit mid- season. The people called negative are usually closer to reality than the cheerleeders. Hopefully this year is different.

I only have one thing to add to this thread right now; I see multiple people suggesting buyouts. some people have two in their offseason plans. While the Pouliot one comes off the books now is the Sekera one not still there through 22/23?
If that is in fact correct, is the team limit 2 buyouts? If so, any plan with 2 wont work out.

I see buyouts as a last resort. If they choose to use it I hope it is on a guy like Koskinen as 2 years isnt bad to eat dead space. The Pouliot and Sekera ones have been a handicap for too long.



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CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786530 is a reply to message #786528 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 10:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:15

This is one of my love/hate threads of the year. I hate that we have it every year after a disappointing end. I love the ideas and suggestions. I dont look much into potentiall FA's or even trade targets during the season so this gets the juices flowing.
Much like the draft chatter and minor league threads. I appreciate those as well given I barely pay attention to that stuff myself and love that others do.
It is also a great thread to revisit mid- season. The people called negative are usually closer to reality than the cheerleeders. Hopefully this year is different.

I only have one thing to add to this thread right now; I see multiple people suggesting buyouts. some people have two in their offseason plans. While the Pouliot one comes off the books now is the Sekera one not still there through 22/23?
If that is in fact correct, is the team limit 2 buyouts? If so, any plan with 2 wont work out.

I see buyouts as a last resort. If they choose to use it I hope it is on a guy like Koskinen as 2 years isnt bad to eat dead space. The Pouliot and Sekera ones have been a handicap for too long.


That's why I don't think you can do Neal this year. It's a 4-year tie-up. Kassian would be six!

I think you have to see if you can find someone to take one of those bad contracts, and if not, then maybe you see if James is feeling allergic to his hockey gear or something.

I think it's two a year, not two that can be running concurrently. Here's the Oilers buyout history:

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-history (sort to Oilers)

We had bought out Pouliot in 2017, Gryba in 2018 and Sekera in 2019 - so we had three running concurrently before.

Worth noting just how many buyouts the Oilers have done lately - also one in 2016 and 2015. That's a lot of dead cap, and a lot of dumb mistakes. Also - if instead of Sekera, they'd bought out Russell, the number would be lower and I think we'd be done sooner...

I think they do have to buyout Koskinen though. I can't see anyone taking a goalie with a cap hit of that size, and there's no confidence in him here any more. He had a dreadful season. Because he had one half-decent year and because he's very large, I could see a team picking him up on the cheap after we buy him out, but no way is anyone paying even half price for him ($2.25MM).

We buy him out and he costs us $1.5MM for each of the next two years, freeing up $3MM more this year (although eroding $1.5MM from the following year's cap).



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786531 is a reply to message #786530 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 10:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20289
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:36

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:15

This is one of my love/hate threads of the year. I hate that we have it every year after a disappointing end. I love the ideas and suggestions. I dont look much into potentiall FA's or even trade targets during the season so this gets the juices flowing.
Much like the draft chatter and minor league threads. I appreciate those as well given I barely pay attention to that stuff myself and love that others do.
It is also a great thread to revisit mid- season. The people called negative are usually closer to reality than the cheerleeders. Hopefully this year is different.

I only have one thing to add to this thread right now; I see multiple people suggesting buyouts. some people have two in their offseason plans. While the Pouliot one comes off the books now is the Sekera one not still there through 22/23?
If that is in fact correct, is the team limit 2 buyouts? If so, any plan with 2 wont work out.

I see buyouts as a last resort. If they choose to use it I hope it is on a guy like Koskinen as 2 years isnt bad to eat dead space. The Pouliot and Sekera ones have been a handicap for too long.


That's why I don't think you can do Neal this year. It's a 4-year tie-up. Kassian would be six!

I think you have to see if you can find someone to take one of those bad contracts, and if not, then maybe you see if James is feeling allergic to his hockey gear or something.

I think it's two a year, not two that can be running concurrently. Here's the Oilers buyout history:

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-history (sort to Oilers)

We had bought out Pouliot in 2017, Gryba in 2018 and Sekera in 2019 - so we had three running concurrently before.

Worth noting just how many buyouts the Oilers have done lately - also one in 2016 and 2015. That's a lot of dead cap, and a lot of dumb mistakes. Also - if instead of Sekera, they'd bought out Russell, the number would be lower and I think we'd be done sooner...

I think they do have to buyout Koskinen though. I can't see anyone taking a goalie with a cap hit of that size, and there's no confidence in him here any more. He had a dreadful season. Because he had one half-decent year and because he's very large, I could see a team picking him up on the cheap after we buy him out, but no way is anyone paying even half price for him ($2.25MM).

We buy him out and he costs us $1.5MM for each of the next two years, freeing up $3MM more this year (although eroding $1.5MM from the following year's cap).



Think the 2 limit is salary retention. So you can't just start tossing players back and forth between teams spreading out cap hits which could let teams with cap space become an intermediary in loads of trades taking on partial cap hits with retention. You're allowed to just screw yourself as much as you please though with buyouts.

Really would like to see no more of them here. Koskinen one is tempting, but if we can find a way to just get through 1 more year with him, either demotion or just keeping him as backup, it would be so much better.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786534 is a reply to message #786531 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 10:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
Messages: 16776
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:40

Adam wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:36

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:15

This is one of my love/hate threads of the year. I hate that we have it every year after a disappointing end. I love the ideas and suggestions. I dont look much into potentiall FA's or even trade targets during the season so this gets the juices flowing.
Much like the draft chatter and minor league threads. I appreciate those as well given I barely pay attention to that stuff myself and love that others do.
It is also a great thread to revisit mid- season. The people called negative are usually closer to reality than the cheerleeders. Hopefully this year is different.

I only have one thing to add to this thread right now; I see multiple people suggesting buyouts. some people have two in their offseason plans. While the Pouliot one comes off the books now is the Sekera one not still there through 22/23?
If that is in fact correct, is the team limit 2 buyouts? If so, any plan with 2 wont work out.

I see buyouts as a last resort. If they choose to use it I hope it is on a guy like Koskinen as 2 years isnt bad to eat dead space. The Pouliot and Sekera ones have been a handicap for too long.


That's why I don't think you can do Neal this year. It's a 4-year tie-up. Kassian would be six!

I think you have to see if you can find someone to take one of those bad contracts, and if not, then maybe you see if James is feeling allergic to his hockey gear or something.

I think it's two a year, not two that can be running concurrently. Here's the Oilers buyout history:

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-history (sort to Oilers)

We had bought out Pouliot in 2017, Gryba in 2018 and Sekera in 2019 - so we had three running concurrently before.

Worth noting just how many buyouts the Oilers have done lately - also one in 2016 and 2015. That's a lot of dead cap, and a lot of dumb mistakes. Also - if instead of Sekera, they'd bought out Russell, the number would be lower and I think we'd be done sooner...

I think they do have to buyout Koskinen though. I can't see anyone taking a goalie with a cap hit of that size, and there's no confidence in him here any more. He had a dreadful season. Because he had one half-decent year and because he's very large, I could see a team picking him up on the cheap after we buy him out, but no way is anyone paying even half price for him ($2.25MM).

We buy him out and he costs us $1.5MM for each of the next two years, freeing up $3MM more this year (although eroding $1.5MM from the following year's cap).



Think the 2 limit is salary retention. So you can't just start tossing players back and forth between teams spreading out cap hits which could let teams with cap space become an intermediary in loads of trades taking on partial cap hits with retention. You're allowed to just screw yourself as much as you please though with buyouts.

Really would like to see no more of them here. Koskinen one is tempting, but if we can find a way to just get through 1 more year with him, either demotion or just keeping him as backup, it would be so much better.


It is pretty incredible that the team had $4.5MM in dead cap hit again last season. That's a pretty good player you can get with that money. We're down to $2.25 in guaranteed dead space now for the coming year, but if Koskinen is not on the roster, I think you have to consider what you can do with the extra $3MM if you dump him. I imagine at his age and health he still intends to keep playing, but he's not likely to agree to any termination knowing no one else will ever sign him for as much again. I guess it comes down to whether or not they need the money. If they don't, then maybe you just loan him to some KHL team, and take the hit for one more year.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786591 is a reply to message #786531 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 15:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:40

Adam wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:36

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 10:15

This is one of my love/hate threads of the year. I hate that we have it every year after a disappointing end. I love the ideas and suggestions. I dont look much into potentiall FA's or even trade targets during the season so this gets the juices flowing.
Much like the draft chatter and minor league threads. I appreciate those as well given I barely pay attention to that stuff myself and love that others do.
It is also a great thread to revisit mid- season. The people called negative are usually closer to reality than the cheerleeders. Hopefully this year is different.

I only have one thing to add to this thread right now; I see multiple people suggesting buyouts. some people have two in their offseason plans. While the Pouliot one comes off the books now is the Sekera one not still there through 22/23?
If that is in fact correct, is the team limit 2 buyouts? If so, any plan with 2 wont work out.

I see buyouts as a last resort. If they choose to use it I hope it is on a guy like Koskinen as 2 years isnt bad to eat dead space. The Pouliot and Sekera ones have been a handicap for too long.


That's why I don't think you can do Neal this year. It's a 4-year tie-up. Kassian would be six!

I think you have to see if you can find someone to take one of those bad contracts, and if not, then maybe you see if James is feeling allergic to his hockey gear or something.

I think it's two a year, not two that can be running concurrently. Here's the Oilers buyout history:

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-history (sort to Oilers)

We had bought out Pouliot in 2017, Gryba in 2018 and Sekera in 2019 - so we had three running concurrently before.

Worth noting just how many buyouts the Oilers have done lately - also one in 2016 and 2015. That's a lot of dead cap, and a lot of dumb mistakes. Also - if instead of Sekera, they'd bought out Russell, the number would be lower and I think we'd be done sooner...

I think they do have to buyout Koskinen though. I can't see anyone taking a goalie with a cap hit of that size, and there's no confidence in him here any more. He had a dreadful season. Because he had one half-decent year and because he's very large, I could see a team picking him up on the cheap after we buy him out, but no way is anyone paying even half price for him ($2.25MM).

We buy him out and he costs us $1.5MM for each of the next two years, freeing up $3MM more this year (although eroding $1.5MM from the following year's cap).



Think the 2 limit is salary retention. So you can't just start tossing players back and forth between teams spreading out cap hits which could let teams with cap space become an intermediary in loads of trades taking on partial cap hits with retention. You're allowed to just screw yourself as much as you please though with buyouts.

Really would like to see no more of them here. Koskinen one is tempting, but if we can find a way to just get through 1 more year with him, either demotion or just keeping him as backup, it would be so much better.


Interesting info from both of you. Thanks.
I cant keep track between regular buyouts, compliance buyouts, retention trades, etc.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786553 is a reply to message #786407 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 11:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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I'll give it a go:

(UFAs)
Jaden Schwartz, 1 year, 3.5 AAV
Phillip Danault, 4 years, 4.5 AAV
Linus Ullmark, 2 years, 4.0 AAV
Vinnie Hinostroza, 2 years, 2.0 AAV
Brandon Sutter, 2 years, 1.5 AAV
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 4 years, 5.0 AAV
Adam Larsson, 3 years, 3.5 AAV
Dmitri Kulikov, 1 year, 1.5 AAV
Mike Smith, 1 year, 2.5 AAV

(RFAs)
Yamamoto, 2 years, 2.5
Shore, 1 year, 0.9
Kahun, 1 year, 1.25

Trade Kassian to wherever using draft picks to get rid of the contract
Buyout Mikko Koskinen
Bury Kyle Turris & Kris Russell in Bakersfield


Schwartz (3.5) / McDavid (12.5) / Puljujarvi (1.175)
Nugent-Hopkins (5.0) / Draisaitl (8.5) / Yamamoto (2.5)
Holloway (0.925) / Danault (4.5) / Hinostroza (2.0)
Shore (0.9) / Sutter (1.5) / Archibald (1.5)
Neal (5.75), Kahun (1.25)

Nurse (5.6) / Bear (2.0)
Klefbom (4.167) / Bouchard (0.863)
Kulikov (1.50) / Larsson (3.75)
Jones (0.85)

Ullmark (4.0)
Smith (2.5)

FORWARD CAP: 51.5
DEFENSE CAP: 18.73
GOALTENDING CAP: 6.5
BURIED CAP: 0.65 (Turris and Russell)
BUYOUT CAP: 3.0 (Sekera still on the books for 1.5)
RETAINED CAP: 0.75 (Lucic)
TOTAL CAP: 81.471 (Cap Space: $28k)


The defense is weaker without Barrie, and if there was any way to clear out Neal without taking back a contract, that's probably where I'd spend it. And while the lineup is faster and better offensively, it's also quite small... would love to find a bigger scoring winger for McDavid that is affordable, but was having trouble finding one. But overall, I think the lineup is upgraded. Thoughts?

[Updated on: Wed, 26 May 2021 11:53]


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786566 is a reply to message #786553 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786568 is a reply to message #786566 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 12:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27

Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


I'm penciling him in, but those cap dollars can be used on Barrie or a replacement like Goligoski if he isn't. But for planning purposes, probably makes sense to consider him there. In reality, who knows.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786572 is a reply to message #786568 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 13:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27

Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


I'm penciling him in, but those cap dollars can be used on Barrie or a replacement like Goligoski if he isn't. But for planning purposes, probably makes sense to consider him there. In reality, who knows.

Your ideas are interesting except for the fact that you seem to have Bear pencilled in as a top-pairing D-man. He shouldn't be played any higher than 3rd, and if the Oil can find a top-pairing guy to replace or complement Barrie, he should be the one in the number 7 spot, assuming that Bouchard doesn't just replace him entirely.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786574 is a reply to message #786572 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 13:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 13:12

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27

Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


I'm penciling him in, but those cap dollars can be used on Barrie or a replacement like Goligoski if he isn't. But for planning purposes, probably makes sense to consider him there. In reality, who knows.

Your ideas are interesting except for the fact that you seem to have Bear pencilled in as a top-pairing D-man. He shouldn't be played any higher than 3rd, and if the Oil can find a top-pairing guy to replace or complement Barrie, he should be the one in the number 7 spot, assuming that Bouchard doesn't just replace him entirely.

I echo your comments. I don't see Bear as a top pairing guy ever. Maybe a solid #4 but not any higher. So if Barrie prices himself out of Edmonton, they need to think because while I like Bouchard a ton, thinking he is just going to walk in and totally replace everything Barrie does I think isn't realistic. You can't replace 610 NHL games of experience with a snap of a finger.



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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786575 is a reply to message #786572 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 13:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 13:12

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27

Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


I'm penciling him in, but those cap dollars can be used on Barrie or a replacement like Goligoski if he isn't. But for planning purposes, probably makes sense to consider him there. In reality, who knows.

Your ideas are interesting except for the fact that you seem to have Bear pencilled in as a top-pairing D-man. He shouldn't be played any higher than 3rd, and if the Oil can find a top-pairing guy to replace or complement Barrie, he should be the one in the number 7 spot, assuming that Bouchard doesn't just replace him entirely.


Bear is the top RD this coming season. Bouchard will be, for all intents and purposes, a rookie and he won't likely be getting pushed in to tough match-ups at first. He may pass Bear at some point on the depth chart, but it would be shocking if it happened this year.

While Bear's made some memorable gaffes, his overall play is strong. He has generally played well with Nurse too and compliments his game well.

I expect Larsson will be back and that he'll have similar ES minutes to Bear, plus both will have a lot of PK minutes. Bouchard will get a push on PP, although given the coach will still be Tippett, I would not at all be surprised if we see Nurse or Klefbom on that PP for much of the season still. The young guy might be the best option, but the coach will treat that as a reward to his veterans.

There's virtually no other Barrie's available this summer outside of the actual Barrie, and if there were, they would require big money and term to sign. The only exception for that is Tony DeAngelo - if you like a good old-fashioned reclamation project. He's a total dirtbag, but he's going to be relatively cheap to someone. I do expect he's getting a second chance this summer.

Holland and Tippett tipping their hands though that they expect Bouchard to play a bigger role next year, so assume the top 3 RD are Bear, Larsson, Bouchard unless the Oilers trade Bear or can't sign Larsson.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786585 is a reply to message #786575 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 15:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Adam wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:21

Ragnarok73 wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 13:12

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27

Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


I'm penciling him in, but those cap dollars can be used on Barrie or a replacement like Goligoski if he isn't. But for planning purposes, probably makes sense to consider him there. In reality, who knows.

Your ideas are interesting except for the fact that you seem to have Bear pencilled in as a top-pairing D-man. He shouldn't be played any higher than 3rd, and if the Oil can find a top-pairing guy to replace or complement Barrie, he should be the one in the number 7 spot, assuming that Bouchard doesn't just replace him entirely.


Bear is the top RD this coming season. Bouchard will be, for all intents and purposes, a rookie and he won't likely be getting pushed in to tough match-ups at first. He may pass Bear at some point on the depth chart, but it would be shocking if it happened this year.

While Bear's made some memorable gaffes, his overall play is strong. He has generally played well with Nurse too and compliments his game well.

I expect Larsson will be back and that he'll have similar ES minutes to Bear, plus both will have a lot of PK minutes. Bouchard will get a push on PP, although given the coach will still be Tippett, I would not at all be surprised if we see Nurse or Klefbom on that PP for much of the season still. The young guy might be the best option, but the coach will treat that as a reward to his veterans.

There's virtually no other Barrie's available this summer outside of the actual Barrie, and if there were, they would require big money and term to sign. The only exception for that is Tony DeAngelo - if you like a good old-fashioned reclamation project. He's a total dirtbag, but he's going to be relatively cheap to someone. I do expect he's getting a second chance this summer.

Holland and Tippett tipping their hands though that they expect Bouchard to play a bigger role next year, so assume the top 3 RD are Bear, Larsson, Bouchard unless the Oilers trade Bear or can't sign Larsson.


Ya, I'd be fine with the Oilers bringing someone over top of Bear to play 1RD next year, but it's pretty low on my priority list. Bear is good, and I think will be fine in that role even if he doesn't replace all of Barrie's points.

They need probably 2 LW and the bottom 6 needs to improve. Without one of either McDavid or Drai (or both), on the ice the Oilers had 29 GF and 52 GA last year at 5x5. That's just a huge hole that McDrai need to overcome. And, McDavid without Drai was even at 31 GF and 31 GA. They need to get him some help. He seemed to play well with Puljujarvi, so LW would be the obvious open spot. Stop trying to ice 6 PKers in the bottom 6 and get some guys that can at least be even 5x5 and go from there.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Hot Oil Summer - Predict our moves! [message #786588 is a reply to message #786585 ]
Wed, 26 May 2021 15:53 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Adam is currently online Adam
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Goose wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 15:25

Adam wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:21

Ragnarok73 wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 13:12

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 26 May 2021 12:27

Lots of people pretty convinced Klefbom comes back. I wish I shared your optimism and if he does, I think he will be a shadow of his former self.


I'm penciling him in, but those cap dollars can be used on Barrie or a replacement like Goligoski if he isn't. But for planning purposes, probably makes sense to consider him there. In reality, who knows.

Your ideas are interesting except for the fact that you seem to have Bear pencilled in as a top-pairing D-man. He shouldn't be played any higher than 3rd, and if the Oil can find a top-pairing guy to replace or complement Barrie, he should be the one in the number 7 spot, assuming that Bouchard doesn't just replace him entirely.


Bear is the top RD this coming season. Bouchard will be, for all intents and purposes, a rookie and he won't likely be getting pushed in to tough match-ups at first. He may pass Bear at some point on the depth chart, but it would be shocking if it happened this year.

While Bear's made some memorable gaffes, his overall play is strong. He has generally played well with Nurse too and compliments his game well.

I expect Larsson will be back and that he'll have similar ES minutes to Bear, plus both will have a lot of PK minutes. Bouchard will get a push on PP, although given the coach will still be Tippett, I would not at all be surprised if we see Nurse or Klefbom on that PP for much of the season still. The young guy might be the best option, but the coach will treat that as a reward to his veterans.

There's virtually no other Barrie's available this summer outside of the actual Barrie, and if there were, they would require big money and term to sign. The only exception for that is Tony DeAngelo - if you like a good old-fashioned reclamation project. He's a total dirtbag, but he's going to be relatively cheap to someone. I do expect he's getting a second chance this summer.

Holland and Tippett tipping their hands though that they expect Bouchard to play a bigger role next year, so assume the top 3 RD are Bear, Larsson, Bouchard unless the Oilers trade Bear or can't sign Larsson.


Ya, I'd be fine with the Oilers bringing someone over top of Bear to play 1RD next year, but it's pretty low on my priority list. Bear is good, and I think will be fine in that role even if he doesn't replace all of Barrie's points.

They need probably 2 LW and the bottom 6 needs to improve. Without one of either McDavid or Drai (or both), on the ice the Oilers had 29 GF and 52 GA last year at 5x5. That's just a huge hole that McDrai need to overcome. And, McDavid without Drai was even at 31 GF and 31 GA. They need to get him some help. He seemed to play well with Puljujarvi, so LW would be the obvious open spot. Stop trying to ice 6 PKers in the bottom 6 and get some guys that can at least be even 5x5 and go from there.


I wonder if the minutes that they ask McDavid and Draisaitl to play end up a factor in the goals against category. It would be interesting to know how often they're scored against late in a shift, for instance, because the usage has been pretty extreme at times. They're great athletes, but everyone has their limit and as much as their overall usage is pretty huge, they also typically play longer than normal shifts.

Again, that speaks to depth though...if you could trust other lines not to give up the game, then you could back off their minutes a little more and they may be able to go just a little harder in those minutes.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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