This day on January 22
Acquired: Keith Acton (1988)
Departed: Moe Mantha (1988)

Happy Birthday To: Ben Eager, overpaidpunk, lmarco

F.A.Q. Terms of Use F.A.Q. F.A.Q.
Members Members   Search Search     Register Register   Login Login   Home Home
 Speculation » 2020 NHL Draft Prospects
Switch to flat viewSwitch to tree viewCreate a new topicSubmit Reply
 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762004]
Fri, 19 June 2020 13:27 Go to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Depending on where we draft, I wonder if this guy might be a target:

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draft-profile-yaroslav-aska rov~1977436

The Oilers have only twice picked a goalie with a first round pick - Fuhr and Dubnyk. The team's netminding is a weakness, but so is the depth chart. The team has picked 5 goalies in the last 5 years (Svoboda, Wells, Rodrigue, Skinner, Konovalov), but there's no sure things amongst that group. We have deep defence prospects, forwards are a little light, but not awful. Goaltending makes a huge difference and we haven't had a home-grown goaltending prospect since Dubnyk. He was picked in 2004, so that's a massive drought, and the strategy of picking people late and hoping for a diamond in the rough doesn't seem to be paying dividends.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762005 is a reply to message #762004 ]
Fri, 19 June 2020 13:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20529
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:27

Depending on where we draft, I wonder if this guy might be a target:

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draft-profile-yaroslav-aska rov~1977436

The Oilers have only twice picked a goalie with a first round pick - Fuhr and Dubnyk. The team's netminding is a weakness, but so is the depth chart. The team has picked 5 goalies in the last 5 years (Svoboda, Wells, Rodrigue, Skinner, Konovalov), but there's no sure things amongst that group. We have deep defence prospects, forwards are a little light, but not awful. Goaltending makes a huge difference and we haven't had a home-grown goaltending prospect since Dubnyk. He was picked in 2004, so that's a massive drought, and the strategy of picking people late and hoping for a diamond in the rough doesn't seem to be paying dividends.


I'm game. Kid has a good hockey name :)

Button says best goalie prospect since Price... I dunno, I remember really wishing we could get Vasilevskiy. Kid was outstanding in the junior tournament and lived up to the hype.

And small disclaimer. Askarov got his 1 KHL win for team Putin icon_biggrin

[Updated on: Fri, 19 June 2020 13:38]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762009 is a reply to message #762005 ]
Fri, 19 June 2020 13:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:30

Adam wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:27

Depending on where we draft, I wonder if this guy might be a target:

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draft-profile-yaroslav-aska rov~1977436

The Oilers have only twice picked a goalie with a first round pick - Fuhr and Dubnyk. The team's netminding is a weakness, but so is the depth chart. The team has picked 5 goalies in the last 5 years (Svoboda, Wells, Rodrigue, Skinner, Konovalov), but there's no sure things amongst that group. We have deep defence prospects, forwards are a little light, but not awful. Goaltending makes a huge difference and we haven't had a home-grown goaltending prospect since Dubnyk. He was picked in 2004, so that's a massive drought, and the strategy of picking people late and hoping for a diamond in the rough doesn't seem to be paying dividends.


I'm game. Kid has a good hockey name :)

Button says best goalie prospect since Price... I dunno, I remember really wishing we could get Vasilevskiy. Kid was outstanding in the junior tournament and lived up to the hype.

And small disclaimer. Askarov got his 1 KHL win for team Putin icon_biggrin


Yes - I am by no means an expert on goaltending prospects, but I thought the same of Vasilevskiy. He looked like the real thing.

We had no real shot at him unfortunately, because he went 19th, and the world would have burned if the Oilers went off the board at #1 overall to pick a goalie. He'd be top three if you redrafted 2012 today though with Rielly and Forsberg in the mix. I might even have him #1.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762014 is a reply to message #762009 ]
Fri, 19 June 2020 14:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20529
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:57

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:30

Adam wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:27

Depending on where we draft, I wonder if this guy might be a target:

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draft-profile-yaroslav-aska rov~1977436

The Oilers have only twice picked a goalie with a first round pick - Fuhr and Dubnyk. The team's netminding is a weakness, but so is the depth chart. The team has picked 5 goalies in the last 5 years (Svoboda, Wells, Rodrigue, Skinner, Konovalov), but there's no sure things amongst that group. We have deep defence prospects, forwards are a little light, but not awful. Goaltending makes a huge difference and we haven't had a home-grown goaltending prospect since Dubnyk. He was picked in 2004, so that's a massive drought, and the strategy of picking people late and hoping for a diamond in the rough doesn't seem to be paying dividends.


I'm game. Kid has a good hockey name :)

Button says best goalie prospect since Price... I dunno, I remember really wishing we could get Vasilevskiy. Kid was outstanding in the junior tournament and lived up to the hype.

And small disclaimer. Askarov got his 1 KHL win for team Putin icon_biggrin


Yes - I am by no means an expert on goaltending prospects, but I thought the same of Vasilevskiy. He looked like the real thing.

We had no real shot at him unfortunately, because he went 19th, and the world would have burned if the Oilers went off the board at #1 overall to pick a goalie. He'd be top three if you redrafted 2012 today though with Rielly and Forsberg in the mix. I might even have him #1.


Yeah, would have had to be geniuses trading up the draft. We also had Dubs already right on the cusp of breaking out behind the swarm.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762016 is a reply to message #762014 ]
Fri, 19 June 2020 14:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 14:21

Adam wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:57

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:30

Adam wrote on Fri, 19 June 2020 13:27

Depending on where we draft, I wonder if this guy might be a target:

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/nhl-draft-profile-yaroslav-aska rov~1977436

The Oilers have only twice picked a goalie with a first round pick - Fuhr and Dubnyk. The team's netminding is a weakness, but so is the depth chart. The team has picked 5 goalies in the last 5 years (Svoboda, Wells, Rodrigue, Skinner, Konovalov), but there's no sure things amongst that group. We have deep defence prospects, forwards are a little light, but not awful. Goaltending makes a huge difference and we haven't had a home-grown goaltending prospect since Dubnyk. He was picked in 2004, so that's a massive drought, and the strategy of picking people late and hoping for a diamond in the rough doesn't seem to be paying dividends.


I'm game. Kid has a good hockey name :)

Button says best goalie prospect since Price... I dunno, I remember really wishing we could get Vasilevskiy. Kid was outstanding in the junior tournament and lived up to the hype.

And small disclaimer. Askarov got his 1 KHL win for team Putin icon_biggrin


Yes - I am by no means an expert on goaltending prospects, but I thought the same of Vasilevskiy. He looked like the real thing.

We had no real shot at him unfortunately, because he went 19th, and the world would have burned if the Oilers went off the board at #1 overall to pick a goalie. He'd be top three if you redrafted 2012 today though with Rielly and Forsberg in the mix. I might even have him #1.


Yeah, would have had to be geniuses trading up the draft. We also had Dubs already right on the cusp of breaking out behind the swarm.


He looked pretty legit in 2012-13. It's a shame that Eakins/MacTavish sewered that so badly (although thanks Eakins for Draisaitl & McDavid! And Dubnyk too - who beat us four or five times in 2014-15, including, I think 4 times for the Coyotes!)

[Updated on: Fri, 19 June 2020 14:33]


"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762066 is a reply to message #762016 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 06:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7257
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

I would never draft a goalie in the first round. Maybe if you have a few firsts and one is late but not if you have just one. Dubnyk was drafted in 2004. He didn't play his first NHL game until 2009. In 2009 he got into 19 games, had a 3.57 GA and a .889%. So not very good. Year 6 from his draft he was in the NHL to stay and was decent and for 3 years, he was pretty decent. So from draft to when Dubnyk was decent, he was 24. I think the last goalie taken in the first round was Samsonov by Washington in 2015. He made his NHL debut this year and as a back up on a really, really good team looked decent. He's 23 and 5 yrs removed from his draft year and he's just starting out and looks like he might be good.

Typically, most NHL forwards taken in the first round by the time they are 23 are pretty good players and have been for a couple of seasons. Yamo who was taken 22 overall, so potentially in the ball park of where the Oilers might pick and at 21 and 3 yrs after his draft was pretty darn good. When you are almost a point per game, that's pretty darn good. Now it was a short period of time but chances are in 2 more years when at the age the goalie you draft is probably MAYBE sniffing around your NHL team for a spot, Yamo could be a very, very good player. There is always exceptions but goalies tend to take a very long time IF they make it.

[Updated on: Mon, 22 June 2020 06:51]


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762080 is a reply to message #762066 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 09:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 06:44

I would never draft a goalie in the first round. Maybe if you have a few firsts and one is late but not if you have just one. Dubnyk was drafted in 2004. He didn't play his first NHL game until 2009. In 2009 he got into 19 games, had a 3.57 GA and a .889%. So not very good. Year 6 from his draft he was in the NHL to stay and was decent and for 3 years, he was pretty decent. So from draft to when Dubnyk was decent, he was 24. I think the last goalie taken in the first round was Samsonov by Washington in 2015. He made his NHL debut this year and as a back up on a really, really good team looked decent. He's 23 and 5 yrs removed from his draft year and he's just starting out and looks like he might be good.

Typically, most NHL forwards taken in the first round by the time they are 23 are pretty good players and have been for a couple of seasons. Yamo who was taken 22 overall, so potentially in the ball park of where the Oilers might pick and at 21 and 3 yrs after his draft was pretty darn good. When you are almost a point per game, that's pretty darn good. Now it was a short period of time but chances are in 2 more years when at the age the goalie you draft is probably MAYBE sniffing around your NHL team for a spot, Yamo could be a very, very good player. There is always exceptions but goalies tend to take a very long time IF they make it.


Counter-point:

The Oilers have used only two first round picks on goalies. They got 594 NHL games out of those two netminders. The Oilers were very slow and patient with Dubnyk - although some of that was the organization's failure to find a place for him to play - first because they didn't have a minor league team, and then because they were trying to develop two goalies at the same time with only one crease to do it with.

There is risk to picking a goalie high, but many of the best goalies of the last couple decades were identified and drafted early. Brodeur, Luongo, Vasilevski, Price, Schneider, Fleury, Rask. It is extremely rare to get a goalie of that calibre through trade or free agent signing, and the Oilers have never virtually never been successful drafting a goalie in the later rounds and developing them. The team has picked 44 goalies, 42 of them after the first round. Of those, the only ones to play more than 50 NHL games are Deslauriers (2nd round - 62 NHL games) and Markkanen (5th round at age 26 - 128 NHL games) and Andy Moog (7th round - 713 NHL games).

Source: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/draft.html - Sort by position

The team has been relatively lucky in that we've managed to trade for decent goalies several times - picking up Ranford, Joseph, Salo, Roloson and Talbot through trades, but we're not seeing a lot of great goalies traded now. With soon to be 32 teams, there's rarely enough great stoppers out there.

This may be a risk the Oilers need to take at some point. It's definitely the area of greatest organizational weakness. Ideally, it would be great if there was a true #1 netminder available this summer but there's not a lot there and they're likely to be highly coveted. Picking up a UFA who has been good in the past is also fraught with risks - just ask the Florida Panthers about that. If we can get an excellent netminder who is cost controlled for a few years, then I'm okay with the fact we may have to wait for them - although more and more of these goalies are coming in fairly young - Carter Hart, for example - is just 21 years old and outperformed both Oilers goalies this year.

Of course - the other possibility is that the Oilers are just terrible at developing netminders. 44 picks and 36 of them have played 2 or less games. The only ones who've seen more action:

Moog
Fuhr
Reaugh (27 games)
Gage (23 games)
Markkanen
Morrison (29 games)
Deslauriers
Dubnyk

That's a pretty poor track record. It's not like they're just blocked by the goalies in front of them either, because they're not having success after the Oilers either. So there may be an argument that we'd screw it up if we drafted a good goalie, based on that track record, so best to just try to acquire fully developed goalies. I hope that's not the case though.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762098 is a reply to message #762080 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 10:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7257
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 09:29

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 06:44

I would never draft a goalie in the first round. Maybe if you have a few firsts and one is late but not if you have just one. Dubnyk was drafted in 2004. He didn't play his first NHL game until 2009. In 2009 he got into 19 games, had a 3.57 GA and a .889%. So not very good. Year 6 from his draft he was in the NHL to stay and was decent and for 3 years, he was pretty decent. So from draft to when Dubnyk was decent, he was 24. I think the last goalie taken in the first round was Samsonov by Washington in 2015. He made his NHL debut this year and as a back up on a really, really good team looked decent. He's 23 and 5 yrs removed from his draft year and he's just starting out and looks like he might be good.

Typically, most NHL forwards taken in the first round by the time they are 23 are pretty good players and have been for a couple of seasons. Yamo who was taken 22 overall, so potentially in the ball park of where the Oilers might pick and at 21 and 3 yrs after his draft was pretty darn good. When you are almost a point per game, that's pretty darn good. Now it was a short period of time but chances are in 2 more years when at the age the goalie you draft is probably MAYBE sniffing around your NHL team for a spot, Yamo could be a very, very good player. There is always exceptions but goalies tend to take a very long time IF they make it.


Counter-point:

The Oilers have used only two first round picks on goalies. They got 594 NHL games out of those two netminders. The Oilers were very slow and patient with Dubnyk - although some of that was the organization's failure to find a place for him to play - first because they didn't have a minor league team, and then because they were trying to develop two goalies at the same time with only one crease to do it with.

There is risk to picking a goalie high, but many of the best goalies of the last couple decades were identified and drafted early. Brodeur, Luongo, Vasilevski, Price, Schneider, Fleury, Rask. It is extremely rare to get a goalie of that calibre through trade or free agent signing, and the Oilers have never virtually never been successful drafting a goalie in the later rounds and developing them. The team has picked 44 goalies, 42 of them after the first round. Of those, the only ones to play more than 50 NHL games are Deslauriers (2nd round - 62 NHL games) and Markkanen (5th round at age 26 - 128 NHL games) and Andy Moog (7th round - 713 NHL games).

Source: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/draft.html - Sort by position

The team has been relatively lucky in that we've managed to trade for decent goalies several times - picking up Ranford, Joseph, Salo, Roloson and Talbot through trades, but we're not seeing a lot of great goalies traded now. With soon to be 32 teams, there's rarely enough great stoppers out there.

This may be a risk the Oilers need to take at some point. It's definitely the area of greatest organizational weakness. Ideally, it would be great if there was a true #1 netminder available this summer but there's not a lot there and they're likely to be highly coveted. Picking up a UFA who has been good in the past is also fraught with risks - just ask the Florida Panthers about that. If we can get an excellent netminder who is cost controlled for a few years, then I'm okay with the fact we may have to wait for them - although more and more of these goalies are coming in fairly young - Carter Hart, for example - is just 21 years old and outperformed both Oilers goalies this year.

Of course - the other possibility is that the Oilers are just terrible at developing netminders. 44 picks and 36 of them have played 2 or less games. The only ones who've seen more action:

Moog
Fuhr
Reaugh (27 games)
Gage (23 games)
Markkanen
Morrison (29 games)
Deslauriers
Dubnyk

That's a pretty poor track record. It's not like they're just blocked by the goalies in front of them either, because they're not having success after the Oilers either. So there may be an argument that we'd screw it up if we drafted a good goalie, based on that track record, so best to just try to acquire fully developed goalies. I hope that's not the case though.

I won't argue that if you can get a goalie of the caliber you listed, then sure eventually it will be worth it. But you can also get pretty good goalies in later rounds.

F. Andersson - 3rd round
Marksson - 2nd round.
Gibson - 2nd Round
Hellybuck - 5th round.
Lehner - 2nd round.
Holtby - 4th roung

Both Rangers goalies, one was a 4th round, the other undrafted and everyone raves about them. didn't go through every team but I know there is more.

Some of the guys I listed were drafted by other teams but lots are homegrown guys. Even the Oilers. They went out and signed Koskinen. If he a world beater? No but this season he was fairly solid and his numbers reflect that. So the goalie who is listed as the top guy, if you draft him, you better be right because in my opinion, you have to hit on your firsts and they have to be impact players. They missed on Yak in 2012 and it hurts them because a guy from 2012 draft should be in Mostly likely but the fact he has move around SO much even in the KHL says he is a flawed player. JP 2016. The Oilers absolutely made mistakes with his development. I have talked a ton about that but there is blame on him as well. At going into 5 years removed from his draft year, JP should be an impact player on the Oilers. He's not. Now maybe he will become an effective NHLer still but it doesn't change the fact that at 4th overall, normally you are expected to be a big time impact player. Even if the Oilers had of been perfect with his development, there is a very real chance given the issues he has had, he wouldn't have lived up to the 4th overall. So even if a person disagrees with my opinion on JP, I don't think any team or it's fans expect a 4th overall to just be an NHLer, you are expecting a star. In my opinion, JP would not have turned into a star. So even if he turns into a good 3rd liner, that isn't a hit with a 4th overal.

So they need to hit on this first. Assuming the Oilers pick later in the first, the guy they pick could play in 2-3 yrs realistically. If you are lucky, maybe sooner as no player develops the same. It would be extremely unlikely that a goalie taken in the first will be ready in 2-3 years. Most likely in 5 yrs, maybe more. In 5 years, they might be ready to be an NHL back up and maybe in another year or 2, a full time starter. There is the odd one that goes faster but not many. So I would prefer the Oilers to play the odds and pick a forward because chances are, in 5 yrs, he will be a damn good player.

[Updated on: Mon, 22 June 2020 11:07]


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762124 is a reply to message #762098 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 13:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 10:53

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 09:29

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 06:44

I would never draft a goalie in the first round. Maybe if you have a few firsts and one is late but not if you have just one. Dubnyk was drafted in 2004. He didn't play his first NHL game until 2009. In 2009 he got into 19 games, had a 3.57 GA and a .889%. So not very good. Year 6 from his draft he was in the NHL to stay and was decent and for 3 years, he was pretty decent. So from draft to when Dubnyk was decent, he was 24. I think the last goalie taken in the first round was Samsonov by Washington in 2015. He made his NHL debut this year and as a back up on a really, really good team looked decent. He's 23 and 5 yrs removed from his draft year and he's just starting out and looks like he might be good.

Typically, most NHL forwards taken in the first round by the time they are 23 are pretty good players and have been for a couple of seasons. Yamo who was taken 22 overall, so potentially in the ball park of where the Oilers might pick and at 21 and 3 yrs after his draft was pretty darn good. When you are almost a point per game, that's pretty darn good. Now it was a short period of time but chances are in 2 more years when at the age the goalie you draft is probably MAYBE sniffing around your NHL team for a spot, Yamo could be a very, very good player. There is always exceptions but goalies tend to take a very long time IF they make it.


Counter-point:

The Oilers have used only two first round picks on goalies. They got 594 NHL games out of those two netminders. The Oilers were very slow and patient with Dubnyk - although some of that was the organization's failure to find a place for him to play - first because they didn't have a minor league team, and then because they were trying to develop two goalies at the same time with only one crease to do it with.

There is risk to picking a goalie high, but many of the best goalies of the last couple decades were identified and drafted early. Brodeur, Luongo, Vasilevski, Price, Schneider, Fleury, Rask. It is extremely rare to get a goalie of that calibre through trade or free agent signing, and the Oilers have never virtually never been successful drafting a goalie in the later rounds and developing them. The team has picked 44 goalies, 42 of them after the first round. Of those, the only ones to play more than 50 NHL games are Deslauriers (2nd round - 62 NHL games) and Markkanen (5th round at age 26 - 128 NHL games) and Andy Moog (7th round - 713 NHL games).

Source: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/draft.html - Sort by position

The team has been relatively lucky in that we've managed to trade for decent goalies several times - picking up Ranford, Joseph, Salo, Roloson and Talbot through trades, but we're not seeing a lot of great goalies traded now. With soon to be 32 teams, there's rarely enough great stoppers out there.

This may be a risk the Oilers need to take at some point. It's definitely the area of greatest organizational weakness. Ideally, it would be great if there was a true #1 netminder available this summer but there's not a lot there and they're likely to be highly coveted. Picking up a UFA who has been good in the past is also fraught with risks - just ask the Florida Panthers about that. If we can get an excellent netminder who is cost controlled for a few years, then I'm okay with the fact we may have to wait for them - although more and more of these goalies are coming in fairly young - Carter Hart, for example - is just 21 years old and outperformed both Oilers goalies this year.

Of course - the other possibility is that the Oilers are just terrible at developing netminders. 44 picks and 36 of them have played 2 or less games. The only ones who've seen more action:

Moog
Fuhr
Reaugh (27 games)
Gage (23 games)
Markkanen
Morrison (29 games)
Deslauriers
Dubnyk

That's a pretty poor track record. It's not like they're just blocked by the goalies in front of them either, because they're not having success after the Oilers either. So there may be an argument that we'd screw it up if we drafted a good goalie, based on that track record, so best to just try to acquire fully developed goalies. I hope that's not the case though.

I won't argue that if you can get a goalie of the caliber you listed, then sure eventually it will be worth it. But you can also get pretty good goalies in later rounds.

F. Andersson - 3rd round
Marksson - 2nd round.
Gibson - 2nd Round
Hellybuck - 5th round.
Lehner - 2nd round.
Holtby - 4th roung

Both Rangers goalies, one was a 4th round, the other undrafted and everyone raves about them. didn't go through every team but I know there is more.

Some of the guys I listed were drafted by other teams but lots are homegrown guys. Even the Oilers. They went out and signed Koskinen. If he a world beater? No but this season he was fairly solid and his numbers reflect that. So the goalie who is listed as the top guy, if you draft him, you better be right because in my opinion, you have to hit on your firsts and they have to be impact players. They missed on Yak in 2012 and it hurts them because a guy from 2012 draft should be in Mostly likely but the fact he has move around SO much even in the KHL says he is a flawed player. JP 2016. The Oilers absolutely made mistakes with his development. I have talked a ton about that but there is blame on him as well. At going into 5 years removed from his draft year, JP should be an impact player on the Oilers. He's not. Now maybe he will become an effective NHLer still but it doesn't change the fact that at 4th overall, normally you are expected to be a big time impact player. Even if the Oilers had of been perfect with his development, there is a very real chance given the issues he has had, he wouldn't have lived up to the 4th overall. So even if a person disagrees with my opinion on JP, I don't think any team or it's fans expect a 4th overall to just be an NHLer, you are expecting a star. In my opinion, JP would not have turned into a star. So even if he turns into a good 3rd liner, that isn't a hit with a 4th overal.

So they need to hit on this first. Assuming the Oilers pick later in the first, the guy they pick could play in 2-3 yrs realistically. If you are lucky, maybe sooner as no player develops the same. It would be extremely unlikely that a goalie taken in the first will be ready in 2-3 years. Most likely in 5 yrs, maybe more. In 5 years, they might be ready to be an NHL back up and maybe in another year or 2, a full time starter. There is the odd one that goes faster but not many. So I would prefer the Oilers to play the odds and pick a forward because chances are, in 5 yrs, he will be a damn good player.


My point is that the Oilers have never, ever shown any ability to draft and develop diamonds in the rough. They have done well with the two first round picks they've spent on goalies, because they've taken goalies who were consistently ranked at or near the top available.

I don't think your timeline is the one I'd be working on - if the player is high calibre, then they're going to advance faster than that. Vasilevskiy was drafted in 2012, and was in the NHL by 2014-15. Price was drafted in 2005, and played in half the games for the Habs in 2007-08. Brodeur played his first NHL games just over a year after he was drafted. Luongo was on a similar timeline to Price. Grant Fuhr played 48 games for the Oilers the year he was drafted.

There's no cookie cutter approach with goalies that says they need 5 years of seasoning, just teams often struggle to get them enough playing time as they develop because they have too many goalies in the system, and farm team coaches are hesitant to play kids over vets.

Dedicating a first round pick to a goalie means you're making room for him - despite all the other goalies we have in the system, he's getting pushed forward. He's not spending a bunch of time in the ECHL or being a back-up in the AHL, because there's limited value to that. It means making a call on players already in the system who are longer bets and setting some of them loose. That's always been a weakness of the Oilers in the Kevin Lowe era - we prefer to hold on to all our cards, even the long bets in the hopes that they might eventually pay off, but a better strategy is to identify your best bets earlier, and then give them more room, trading off some decent prospects along the way while they still have value, rather than having them all struggle to get enough playing time to develop until the point where you're letting some go for nothing.




"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762129 is a reply to message #762124 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 14:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7257
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 13:31

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 10:53

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 09:29

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 06:44

I would never draft a goalie in the first round. Maybe if you have a few firsts and one is late but not if you have just one. Dubnyk was drafted in 2004. He didn't play his first NHL game until 2009. In 2009 he got into 19 games, had a 3.57 GA and a .889%. So not very good. Year 6 from his draft he was in the NHL to stay and was decent and for 3 years, he was pretty decent. So from draft to when Dubnyk was decent, he was 24. I think the last goalie taken in the first round was Samsonov by Washington in 2015. He made his NHL debut this year and as a back up on a really, really good team looked decent. He's 23 and 5 yrs removed from his draft year and he's just starting out and looks like he might be good.

Typically, most NHL forwards taken in the first round by the time they are 23 are pretty good players and have been for a couple of seasons. Yamo who was taken 22 overall, so potentially in the ball park of where the Oilers might pick and at 21 and 3 yrs after his draft was pretty darn good. When you are almost a point per game, that's pretty darn good. Now it was a short period of time but chances are in 2 more years when at the age the goalie you draft is probably MAYBE sniffing around your NHL team for a spot, Yamo could be a very, very good player. There is always exceptions but goalies tend to take a very long time IF they make it.


Counter-point:

The Oilers have used only two first round picks on goalies. They got 594 NHL games out of those two netminders. The Oilers were very slow and patient with Dubnyk - although some of that was the organization's failure to find a place for him to play - first because they didn't have a minor league team, and then because they were trying to develop two goalies at the same time with only one crease to do it with.

There is risk to picking a goalie high, but many of the best goalies of the last couple decades were identified and drafted early. Brodeur, Luongo, Vasilevski, Price, Schneider, Fleury, Rask. It is extremely rare to get a goalie of that calibre through trade or free agent signing, and the Oilers have never virtually never been successful drafting a goalie in the later rounds and developing them. The team has picked 44 goalies, 42 of them after the first round. Of those, the only ones to play more than 50 NHL games are Deslauriers (2nd round - 62 NHL games) and Markkanen (5th round at age 26 - 128 NHL games) and Andy Moog (7th round - 713 NHL games).

Source: https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/draft.html - Sort by position

The team has been relatively lucky in that we've managed to trade for decent goalies several times - picking up Ranford, Joseph, Salo, Roloson and Talbot through trades, but we're not seeing a lot of great goalies traded now. With soon to be 32 teams, there's rarely enough great stoppers out there.

This may be a risk the Oilers need to take at some point. It's definitely the area of greatest organizational weakness. Ideally, it would be great if there was a true #1 netminder available this summer but there's not a lot there and they're likely to be highly coveted. Picking up a UFA who has been good in the past is also fraught with risks - just ask the Florida Panthers about that. If we can get an excellent netminder who is cost controlled for a few years, then I'm okay with the fact we may have to wait for them - although more and more of these goalies are coming in fairly young - Carter Hart, for example - is just 21 years old and outperformed both Oilers goalies this year.

Of course - the other possibility is that the Oilers are just terrible at developing netminders. 44 picks and 36 of them have played 2 or less games. The only ones who've seen more action:

Moog
Fuhr
Reaugh (27 games)
Gage (23 games)
Markkanen
Morrison (29 games)
Deslauriers
Dubnyk

That's a pretty poor track record. It's not like they're just blocked by the goalies in front of them either, because they're not having success after the Oilers either. So there may be an argument that we'd screw it up if we drafted a good goalie, based on that track record, so best to just try to acquire fully developed goalies. I hope that's not the case though.

I won't argue that if you can get a goalie of the caliber you listed, then sure eventually it will be worth it. But you can also get pretty good goalies in later rounds.

F. Andersson - 3rd round
Marksson - 2nd round.
Gibson - 2nd Round
Hellybuck - 5th round.
Lehner - 2nd round.
Holtby - 4th roung

Both Rangers goalies, one was a 4th round, the other undrafted and everyone raves about them. didn't go through every team but I know there is more.

Some of the guys I listed were drafted by other teams but lots are homegrown guys. Even the Oilers. They went out and signed Koskinen. If he a world beater? No but this season he was fairly solid and his numbers reflect that. So the goalie who is listed as the top guy, if you draft him, you better be right because in my opinion, you have to hit on your firsts and they have to be impact players. They missed on Yak in 2012 and it hurts them because a guy from 2012 draft should be in Mostly likely but the fact he has move around SO much even in the KHL says he is a flawed player. JP 2016. The Oilers absolutely made mistakes with his development. I have talked a ton about that but there is blame on him as well. At going into 5 years removed from his draft year, JP should be an impact player on the Oilers. He's not. Now maybe he will become an effective NHLer still but it doesn't change the fact that at 4th overall, normally you are expected to be a big time impact player. Even if the Oilers had of been perfect with his development, there is a very real chance given the issues he has had, he wouldn't have lived up to the 4th overall. So even if a person disagrees with my opinion on JP, I don't think any team or it's fans expect a 4th overall to just be an NHLer, you are expecting a star. In my opinion, JP would not have turned into a star. So even if he turns into a good 3rd liner, that isn't a hit with a 4th overal.

So they need to hit on this first. Assuming the Oilers pick later in the first, the guy they pick could play in 2-3 yrs realistically. If you are lucky, maybe sooner as no player develops the same. It would be extremely unlikely that a goalie taken in the first will be ready in 2-3 years. Most likely in 5 yrs, maybe more. In 5 years, they might be ready to be an NHL back up and maybe in another year or 2, a full time starter. There is the odd one that goes faster but not many. So I would prefer the Oilers to play the odds and pick a forward because chances are, in 5 yrs, he will be a damn good player.


My point is that the Oilers have never, ever shown any ability to draft and develop diamonds in the rough. They have done well with the two first round picks they've spent on goalies, because they've taken goalies who were consistently ranked at or near the top available.

I don't think your timeline is the one I'd be working on - if the player is high calibre, then they're going to advance faster than that. Vasilevskiy was drafted in 2012, and was in the NHL by 2014-15. Price was drafted in 2005, and played in half the games for the Habs in 2007-08. Brodeur played his first NHL games just over a year after he was drafted. Luongo was on a similar timeline to Price. Grant Fuhr played 48 games for the Oilers the year he was drafted.

There's no cookie cutter approach with goalies that says they need 5 years of seasoning, just teams often struggle to get them enough playing time as they develop because they have too many goalies in the system, and farm team coaches are hesitant to play kids over vets.

Dedicating a first round pick to a goalie means you're making room for him - despite all the other goalies we have in the system, he's getting pushed forward. He's not spending a bunch of time in the ECHL or being a back-up in the AHL, because there's limited value to that. It means making a call on players already in the system who are longer bets and setting some of them loose. That's always been a weakness of the Oilers in the Kevin Lowe era - we prefer to hold on to all our cards, even the long bets in the hopes that they might eventually pay off, but a better strategy is to identify your best bets earlier, and then give them more room, trading off some decent prospects along the way while they still have value, rather than having them all struggle to get enough playing time to develop until the point where you're letting some go for nothing.



JP was considered a high caliber player taken 4th overall and you were beating the drum against rushing him yet you bring up how fast it was for the goalies you listed and it was fine. Just saying. I don't think the list of goalies making the jump that fast is very long.

Considering how difficult it seems for teams, not just the Oilers to find/develop goalies, I wouldn't be using a first rounder on a goalie even if he's highly touted. But that is just me. The reason like I said is I think you need to hit on your firsts, in a cap error more than in the past. So because of that, given that the draft is still a crap shoot at the best of times, I want the Oilers to be taking a player you have the best chances at becoming a good NHLer.



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762133 is a reply to message #762129 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 15:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 14:00


JP was considered a high caliber player taken 4th overall and you were beating the drum against rushing him yet you bring up how fast it was for the goalies you listed and it was fine. Just saying. I don't think the list of goalies making the jump that fast is very long.

Considering how difficult it seems for teams, not just the Oilers to find/develop goalies, I wouldn't be using a first rounder on a goalie even if he's highly touted. But that is just me. The reason like I said is I think you need to hit on your firsts, in a cap error more than in the past. So because of that, given that the draft is still a crap shoot at the best of times, I want the Oilers to be taking a player you have the best chances at becoming a good NHLer.


What I've said with Puljujarvi, multiple times, is that there's no set development path for players. If the Oilers were to pick a goalie who had just turned 18 at the draft, and then raced him in to the NHL lineup where he played sparingly for half a season, I think that would make a mistake.

Almost all those goalies, with the exception of Fuhr weren't directly to the NHL and Fuhr was in a starter's role from his first season - one which he looked to deserve. He would have been in tough to make the team likely all the same, but that Andy Moog game to camp 25 lbs overweight that fall which opened the door for him. That's not something that's likely to happen with a prospect today - there's a little more focus on conditioning, and smart teams no longer just leave their players completely to their own devices for an entire spring and summer now.

Every pick has some level of risk attached to it, and the Oilers have a massive weakness at goaltender. There's no one who's really of a decent calibre at the NHL level, and worse yet, there's no one coming up. We've seen that they can miss on forwards and defencemen too, and if they're picking at between say, 20th and 25th, there's not going to be any sure things at any position. If we were picking top 5, I'd agree - goalies are a big risk there. But where we're likely to be picking, all the players are going to be 3+ years away from the NHL and the best goalie in the draft is potentially more valuable than the 8th best defenceman or the 10th best centre. Remember that in the second half of the first round, while many of the players drafted will become NHLers, statistically, most are likely to top out as third and fourth liners - a starting goalie is of a much greater value and so worthy of a bigger bet.

Teams have been more judicious in recent years about spending first round picks on goalies, but scouting has also improved, so the ones that are first round picks are more consistently NHL players than they were in years past.

With the Edmonton Oilers, where you're drafted tends to distort the opportunities afforded to you. That probably shouldn't be the case, but it is, and so you can see the organization doing a better job putting a young goalie in a position to succeed.

Let's look how the Oilers have done recently with goalies as a bit of a case study:

2014
Zach Nagelvoort - 4th rd - never offered a contract
Kevin Bouchard - 7th rd - never offered a contract
2015
Miroslav Svoboda - 7th rd - never offered a contract
2016
Dylan Wells - 5th rd - signed to a contract. First pro season, plays 22 ECHL games and 12 AHL games. 2nd pro season plays 10 ECHL games, 7 AHL games. That's not enough ice time to develop, so he's a stranded prospect with relatively weak numbers and probably won't be re-signed.
2017
Stuart Skinner - 3rd rd - signed to a contract - brought in to the organization at the same time as Wells. Plays 41 ECHL games and 6 AHL games in year 1, then 3 ECHL games and 41 AHL games in year 2. Honestly, this is about as good as we've seen development for an Oilers netminder in ages because he actually gets the crease in the AHL at a relatively young age - although injuries played a role and he started the season in the ECHL. Unfortunately, his numbers are weak at both levels. This is the opportunity you have to provide a goalie in order to be successful in developing him.
2018
Olivier Rodrigue - 2nd rd - Signed last year, played his last season in junior this year. Has to be given at least the ECHL starter position next year.
2019
Ilya Konovalov - 3rd round - played a lot in the KHL last year, which is good. No hurry to bring him over (he's not signed) unless the team has a spot in the AHL for him to play as a starter, or they believe he's ready for an NHL role.

The Oilers are already trending towards making bigger bets on goalies, because their strategy of taking a goalie late every year just hasn't worked. Even so, there's no sure things in the current group.

All that said, I don't know much about Askarov - have not seen him play - but if the scouts believe he looks like a surefire NHLer, then I'd definitely consider spending a second half of the first round pick to get a good netminder for the future. Bonus with him would be that as he's Russian, you could leave him in the KHL as long as he's on a team who's going to play him more than half the games, which would allow you to continue grooming Skinner and Rodigue (or possibly even Konovalov).




"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762145 is a reply to message #762133 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 16:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7257
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 15:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 14:00


JP was considered a high caliber player taken 4th overall and you were beating the drum against rushing him yet you bring up how fast it was for the goalies you listed and it was fine. Just saying. I don't think the list of goalies making the jump that fast is very long.

Considering how difficult it seems for teams, not just the Oilers to find/develop goalies, I wouldn't be using a first rounder on a goalie even if he's highly touted. But that is just me. The reason like I said is I think you need to hit on your firsts, in a cap error more than in the past. So because of that, given that the draft is still a crap shoot at the best of times, I want the Oilers to be taking a player you have the best chances at becoming a good NHLer.


What I've said with Puljujarvi, multiple times, is that there's no set development path for players. If the Oilers were to pick a goalie who had just turned 18 at the draft, and then raced him in to the NHL lineup where he played sparingly for half a season, I think that would make a mistake.

Almost all those goalies, with the exception of Fuhr weren't directly to the NHL and Fuhr was in a starter's role from his first season - one which he looked to deserve. He would have been in tough to make the team likely all the same, but that Andy Moog game to camp 25 lbs overweight that fall which opened the door for him. That's not something that's likely to happen with a prospect today - there's a little more focus on conditioning, and smart teams no longer just leave their players completely to their own devices for an entire spring and summer now.

Every pick has some level of risk attached to it, and the Oilers have a massive weakness at goaltender. There's no one who's really of a decent calibre at the NHL level, and worse yet, there's no one coming up. We've seen that they can miss on forwards and defencemen too, and if they're picking at between say, 20th and 25th, there's not going to be any sure things at any position. If we were picking top 5, I'd agree - goalies are a big risk there. But where we're likely to be picking, all the players are going to be 3+ years away from the NHL and the best goalie in the draft is potentially more valuable than the 8th best defenceman or the 10th best centre. Remember that in the second half of the first round, while many of the players drafted will become NHLers, statistically, most are likely to top out as third and fourth liners - a starting goalie is of a much greater value and so worthy of a bigger bet.

Teams have been more judicious in recent years about spending first round picks on goalies, but scouting has also improved, so the ones that are first round picks are more consistently NHL players than they were in years past.

With the Edmonton Oilers, where you're drafted tends to distort the opportunities afforded to you. That probably shouldn't be the case, but it is, and so you can see the organization doing a better job putting a young goalie in a position to succeed.

Let's look how the Oilers have done recently with goalies as a bit of a case study:

2014
Zach Nagelvoort - 4th rd - never offered a contract
Kevin Bouchard - 7th rd - never offered a contract
2015
Miroslav Svoboda - 7th rd - never offered a contract
2016
Dylan Wells - 5th rd - signed to a contract. First pro season, plays 22 ECHL games and 12 AHL games. 2nd pro season plays 10 ECHL games, 7 AHL games. That's not enough ice time to develop, so he's a stranded prospect with relatively weak numbers and probably won't be re-signed.
2017
Stuart Skinner - 3rd rd - signed to a contract - brought in to the organization at the same time as Wells. Plays 41 ECHL games and 6 AHL games in year 1, then 3 ECHL games and 41 AHL games in year 2. Honestly, this is about as good as we've seen development for an Oilers netminder in ages because he actually gets the crease in the AHL at a relatively young age - although injuries played a role and he started the season in the ECHL. Unfortunately, his numbers are weak at both levels. This is the opportunity you have to provide a goalie in order to be successful in developing him.
2018
Olivier Rodrigue - 2nd rd - Signed last year, played his last season in junior this year. Has to be given at least the ECHL starter position next year.
2019
Ilya Konovalov - 3rd round - played a lot in the KHL last year, which is good. No hurry to bring him over (he's not signed) unless the team has a spot in the AHL for him to play as a starter, or they believe he's ready for an NHL role.

The Oilers are already trending towards making bigger bets on goalies, because their strategy of taking a goalie late every year just hasn't worked. Even so, there's no sure things in the current group.

All that said, I don't know much about Askarov - have not seen him play - but if the scouts believe he looks like a surefire NHLer, then I'd definitely consider spending a second half of the first round pick to get a good netminder for the future. Bonus with him would be that as he's Russian, you could leave him in the KHL as long as he's on a team who's going to play him more than half the games, which would allow you to continue grooming Skinner and Rodigue (or possibly even Konovalov).



II'll happily take a forward who in a couple of years will probably be in the Oilers line up scoring goals and putting up points. See Yamamoto over an if or a maybe of a goalie.



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762149 is a reply to message #762145 ]
Mon, 22 June 2020 16:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 16:18


II'll happily take a forward who in a couple of years will probably be in the Oilers line up scoring goals and putting up points. See Yamamoto over an if or a maybe of a goalie.



You act like it's a guarantee you'll get a Yamamoto - there isn't a guarantee. Yamamoto was the 22nd overall pick in 2017. Let's see who else was a 22nd overall pick:

2000 - David Hale
2001 - Jiri Novotny
2002 - Sean Bergenheim
2003 - Marc Antoine Pouliot
2004 - Lukas Kaspar
2005 - Matt Lashoff
2006 - Claude Giroux
2007 - Max Pacioretty
2008 - Jordan Eberle
2009 - Jordan Schroeder
2010 - Jarred Tinordi
2011 - Tyler Biggs
2012 - Olli Maata
2013 - Emile Poirier
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen
2015 - Ilya Samsonov
2016 - German Rubstov
2017 - Kailer Yamamoto
2018 - Filip Johansson

As you can see, you can get really good players at that spot, or you can get no-names who never make the jump. That's the same with forwards as it is with goalies. There's no guarantee at all if you take a forward there that you'll get a Yamamoto - you could well end up with the next Lukas Kaspar or Jordan Schroeder.





"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762173 is a reply to message #762149 ]
Tue, 23 June 2020 06:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7257
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 16:40

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 16:18


II'll happily take a forward who in a couple of years will probably be in the Oilers line up scoring goals and putting up points. See Yamamoto over an if or a maybe of a goalie.



You act like it's a guarantee you'll get a Yamamoto - there isn't a guarantee. Yamamoto was the 22nd overall pick in 2017. Let's see who else was a 22nd overall pick:

2000 - David Hale
2001 - Jiri Novotny
2002 - Sean Bergenheim
2003 - Marc Antoine Pouliot
2004 - Lukas Kaspar
2005 - Matt Lashoff
2006 - Claude Giroux
2007 - Max Pacioretty
2008 - Jordan Eberle
2009 - Jordan Schroeder
2010 - Jarred Tinordi
2011 - Tyler Biggs
2012 - Olli Maata
2013 - Emile Poirier
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen
2015 - Ilya Samsonov
2016 - German Rubstov
2017 - Kailer Yamamoto
2018 - Filip Johansson

As you can see, you can get really good players at that spot, or you can get no-names who never make the jump. That's the same with forwards as it is with goalies. There's no guarantee at all if you take a forward there that you'll get a Yamamoto - you could well end up with the next Lukas Kaspar or Jordan Schroeder.




I am not saying its a guarantee but in my opinion, you have a better chance at picking a forward that will succeed vs a goalie. These scouts are picking a kid who is 17/18 and trying to project what they will be like when they are in their 20's. Very hard to do. Watching a 17 year old goalie go out and look dominate against other teenaged hockey players in major junior or whatever European equivalent is, many of whom won't be anything more than really good men's league doesn't always translate to being a good pro goalie. There have been many a highly touted goalie on the World Junior team touted "the next guy" who did nothing. This Russian kid, I know little about him because I am not a scout. Supposedly people think he looks really good and has the potential to be a franchise goalie. If he was picked by the Oilers and turned into a franchise goalie, that would be amazing and I would love it. But the last memory I have of him was when he was in a tournament of his peers up against the best of the best in the world at the World Juniors. A tournament that showcases the worlds best teenaged hockey players, a chance where guys like him who are supposed to be that good, are supposed to shine. He was lousy in the World Juniors when he was up against the best in his age group and got lit up by the Canadians. Now maybe that was just a bad few weeks for him but that is my last memory of him. He could very well be really good but for me, as I said, hitting on your firsts is very important to any team and I would prefer the Oilers play the odds and go pick a kid who isn't as big of a risk. In my opinion picking a goalie in any round is more of a risk than other positions because the position is much harder to judge.



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762177 is a reply to message #762173 ]
Tue, 23 June 2020 07:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
Messages: 3841
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

3 Cups

The answer is you draft defensemen, then more defensemen, then after that defensemen. You trade for anything else you need.


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762299 is a reply to message #762177 ]
Tue, 23 June 2020 20:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
Messages: 3079
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask

3 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 23 June 2020 07:31

The answer is you draft defensemen, then more defensemen, then after that defensemen. You trade for anything else you need.


I would add skilled centermen. Skill up the middle is a must and hard to trade for without a massive overpay.
Outside of the the one in a very long while my draft board would be C's and D's (insert boob joke here)



Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on


CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762316 is a reply to message #762299 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 08:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Dragon_Matt  is currently offline Dragon_Matt
Messages: 322
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

It's also easier to have too many center men and ask one of them to play wing, then not have enough center men and ask a winger to play C.


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762324 is a reply to message #762177 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 10:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 14491
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 23 June 2020 07:31

The answer is you draft defensemen, then more defensemen, then after that defensemen. You trade for anything else you need.

I agree. It's like drafting pitchers, baseball teams always need more arms. Make sure you're fully stocked there and work the rest out as you go along.

(Unless you can draft a McDavid)



This is fine.

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762323 is a reply to message #762173 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 10:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Xombie  is currently offline Xombie
Messages: 1384
Registered: March 2004
Location: E-Town

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 23 June 2020 05:37

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 16:40

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 16:18


II'll happily take a forward who in a couple of years will probably be in the Oilers line up scoring goals and putting up points. See Yamamoto over an if or a maybe of a goalie.



You act like it's a guarantee you'll get a Yamamoto - there isn't a guarantee. Yamamoto was the 22nd overall pick in 2017. Let's see who else was a 22nd overall pick:

2000 - David Hale
2001 - Jiri Novotny
2002 - Sean Bergenheim
2003 - Marc Antoine Pouliot
2004 - Lukas Kaspar
2005 - Matt Lashoff
2006 - Claude Giroux
2007 - Max Pacioretty
2008 - Jordan Eberle
2009 - Jordan Schroeder
2010 - Jarred Tinordi
2011 - Tyler Biggs
2012 - Olli Maata
2013 - Emile Poirier
2014 - Kasperi Kapanen
2015 - Ilya Samsonov
2016 - German Rubstov
2017 - Kailer Yamamoto
2018 - Filip Johansson

As you can see, you can get really good players at that spot, or you can get no-names who never make the jump. That's the same with forwards as it is with goalies. There's no guarantee at all if you take a forward there that you'll get a Yamamoto - you could well end up with the next Lukas Kaspar or Jordan Schroeder.




I am not saying its a guarantee but in my opinion, you have a better chance at picking a forward that will succeed vs a goalie. These scouts are picking a kid who is 17/18 and trying to project what they will be like when they are in their 20's. Very hard to do. Watching a 17 year old goalie go out and look dominate against other teenaged hockey players in major junior or whatever European equivalent is, many of whom won't be anything more than really good men's league doesn't always translate to being a good pro goalie. There have been many a highly touted goalie on the World Junior team touted "the next guy" who did nothing. This Russian kid, I know little about him because I am not a scout. Supposedly people think he looks really good and has the potential to be a franchise goalie. If he was picked by the Oilers and turned into a franchise goalie, that would be amazing and I would love it. But the last memory I have of him was when he was in a tournament of his peers up against the best of the best in the world at the World Juniors. A tournament that showcases the worlds best teenaged hockey players, a chance where guys like him who are supposed to be that good, are supposed to shine. He was lousy in the World Juniors when he was up against the best in his age group and got lit up by the Canadians. Now maybe that was just a bad few weeks for him but that is my last memory of him. He could very well be really good but for me, as I said, hitting on your firsts is very important to any team and I would prefer the Oilers play the odds and go pick a kid who isn't as big of a risk. In my opinion picking a goalie in any round is more of a risk than other positions because the position is much harder to judge.

You know what, I'm with Adam in that I am down with picking a goalie. But first round? And a Ruskie? I know Ken's got full autonomy but man that's allot to ask of this franchise.



Bob Marley and the (Hartford) Wailers.

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762325 is a reply to message #762323 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 10:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Xombie wrote on Wed, 24 June 2020 10:24


You know what, I'm with Adam in that I am down with picking a goalie. But first round? And a Ruskie? I know Ken's got full autonomy but man that's allot to ask of this franchise.


I'm usually pretty leery about goalies, with high picks but it's just such a clear position of need. I'm also against drafting solely for position - but the top goalie in the draft and someone ranked in the first round? Might be worth it.

With regards to being Russian - we're seeing better goaltending development from Europe (and the US) right now than we are from Canada. There are several really good Russian goalies in the NHL currently, so they're doing something right over there.

Many of these guys want to play in the best league in the world too. Samsonov was the first goalie picked in the 2015 draft. He spent a couple more years in the KHL, then one year in the AHL, and was a decent NHL goalie as a rookie this year.

If he's hooked on with a KHL team where it is expected he's going to get a significant number of starts, then there's no hurry to bring him over before he's ready - which means our development spots can still be used for the goalies already in the system and there's less pressure to clear the decks for him.




"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762344 is a reply to message #762325 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 13:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Xombie  is currently offline Xombie
Messages: 1384
Registered: March 2004
Location: E-Town

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 June 2020 09:55

Xombie wrote on Wed, 24 June 2020 10:24


You know what, I'm with Adam in that I am down with picking a goalie. But first round? And a Ruskie? I know Ken's got full autonomy but man that's allot to ask of this franchise.


I'm usually pretty leery about goalies, with high picks but it's just such a clear position of need. I'm also against drafting solely for position - but the top goalie in the draft and someone ranked in the first round? Might be worth it.

With regards to being Russian - we're seeing better goaltending development from Europe (and the US) right now than we are from Canada. There are several really good Russian goalies in the NHL currently, so they're doing something right over there.

Many of these guys want to play in the best league in the world too. Samsonov was the first goalie picked in the 2015 draft. He spent a couple more years in the KHL, then one year in the AHL, and was a decent NHL goalie as a rookie this year.

If he's hooked on with a KHL team where it is expected he's going to get a significant number of starts, then there's no hurry to bring him over before he's ready - which means our development spots can still be used for the goalies already in the system and there's less pressure to clear the decks for him.



You know what I didn't consider that the KHL lure might be a positive for over-ripening a goaltender. I mean, all we have left is to scour the KHL for free agent goalies anyways. Might as well draft one that plays in the league.



Bob Marley and the (Hartford) Wailers.

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762346 is a reply to message #762325 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 13:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
Messages: 3841
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

3 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 June 2020 10:55



I'm usually pretty leery about goalies, with high picks but it's just such a clear position of need. I'm also against drafting solely for position - but the top goalie in the draft and someone ranked in the first round? Might be worth it.

With regards to being Russian - we're seeing better goaltending development from Europe (and the US) right now than we are from Canada. There are several really good Russian goalies in the NHL currently, so they're doing something right over there.

Many of these guys want to play in the best league in the world too. Samsonov was the first goalie picked in the 2015 draft. He spent a couple more years in the KHL, then one year in the AHL, and was a decent NHL goalie as a rookie this year.

If he's hooked on with a KHL team where it is expected he's going to get a significant number of starts, then there's no hurry to bring him over before he's ready - which means our development spots can still be used for the goalies already in the system and there's less pressure to clear the decks for him.




Sources say, Samsonov was the player the Oilers were going to pick if they didn't make the trade for Reinhart.



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762355 is a reply to message #762346 ]
Wed, 24 June 2020 13:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Wed, 24 June 2020 13:21

Adam wrote on Wed, 24 June 2020 10:55



I'm usually pretty leery about goalies, with high picks but it's just such a clear position of need. I'm also against drafting solely for position - but the top goalie in the draft and someone ranked in the first round? Might be worth it.

With regards to being Russian - we're seeing better goaltending development from Europe (and the US) right now than we are from Canada. There are several really good Russian goalies in the NHL currently, so they're doing something right over there.

Many of these guys want to play in the best league in the world too. Samsonov was the first goalie picked in the 2015 draft. He spent a couple more years in the KHL, then one year in the AHL, and was a decent NHL goalie as a rookie this year.

If he's hooked on with a KHL team where it is expected he's going to get a significant number of starts, then there's no hurry to bring him over before he's ready - which means our development spots can still be used for the goalies already in the system and there's less pressure to clear the decks for him.




Sources say, Samsonov was the player the Oilers were going to pick if they didn't make the trade for Reinhart.


It probably still would have been a mistake versus Barzal or Chabot, but it would have looked like genius compared to that trade...



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762178 is a reply to message #762133 ]
Tue, 23 June 2020 07:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
Messages: 3841
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

3 Cups

Adam wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 15:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 22 June 2020 14:00


JP was considered a high caliber player taken 4th overall and you were beating the drum against rushing him yet you bring up how fast it was for the goalies you listed and it was fine. Just saying. I don't think the list of goalies making the jump that fast is very long.

Considering how difficult it seems for teams, not just the Oilers to find/develop goalies, I wouldn't be using a first rounder on a goalie even if he's highly touted. But that is just me. The reason like I said is I think you need to hit on your firsts, in a cap error more than in the past. So because of that, given that the draft is still a crap shoot at the best of times, I want the Oilers to be taking a player you have the best chances at becoming a good NHLer.


What I've said with Puljujarvi, multiple times, is that there's no set development path for players. If the Oilers were to pick a goalie who had just turned 18 at the draft, and then raced him in to the NHL lineup where he played sparingly for half a season, I think that would make a mistake.

Almost all those goalies, with the exception of Fuhr weren't directly to the NHL and Fuhr was in a starter's role from his first season - one which he looked to deserve. He would have been in tough to make the team likely all the same, but that Andy Moog game to camp 25 lbs overweight that fall which opened the door for him. That's not something that's likely to happen with a prospect today - there's a little more focus on conditioning, and smart teams no longer just leave their players completely to their own devices for an entire spring and summer now.

Every pick has some level of risk attached to it, and the Oilers have a massive weakness at goaltender. There's no one who's really of a decent calibre at the NHL level, and worse yet, there's no one coming up. We've seen that they can miss on forwards and defencemen too, and if they're picking at between say, 20th and 25th, there's not going to be any sure things at any position. If we were picking top 5, I'd agree - goalies are a big risk there. But where we're likely to be picking, all the players are going to be 3+ years away from the NHL and the best goalie in the draft is potentially more valuable than the 8th best defenceman or the 10th best centre. Remember that in the second half of the first round, while many of the players drafted will become NHLers, statistically, most are likely to top out as third and fourth liners - a starting goalie is of a much greater value and so worthy of a bigger bet.

Teams have been more judicious in recent years about spending first round picks on goalies, but scouting has also improved, so the ones that are first round picks are more consistently NHL players than they were in years past.

With the Edmonton Oilers, where you're drafted tends to distort the opportunities afforded to you. That probably shouldn't be the case, but it is, and so you can see the organization doing a better job putting a young goalie in a position to succeed.

Let's look how the Oilers have done recently with goalies as a bit of a case study:

2014
Zach Nagelvoort - 4th rd - never offered a contract
Kevin Bouchard - 7th rd - never offered a contract
2015
Miroslav Svoboda - 7th rd - never offered a contract
2016
Dylan Wells - 5th rd - signed to a contract. First pro season, plays 22 ECHL games and 12 AHL games. 2nd pro season plays 10 ECHL games, 7 AHL games. That's not enough ice time to develop, so he's a stranded prospect with relatively weak numbers and probably won't be re-signed.
2017
Stuart Skinner - 3rd rd - signed to a contract - brought in to the organization at the same time as Wells. Plays 41 ECHL games and 6 AHL games in year 1, then 3 ECHL games and 41 AHL games in year 2. Honestly, this is about as good as we've seen development for an Oilers netminder in ages because he actually gets the crease in the AHL at a relatively young age - although injuries played a role and he started the season in the ECHL. Unfortunately, his numbers are weak at both levels. This is the opportunity you have to provide a goalie in order to be successful in developing him.
2018
Olivier Rodrigue - 2nd rd - Signed last year, played his last season in junior this year. Has to be given at least the ECHL starter position next year.
2019
Ilya Konovalov - 3rd round - played a lot in the KHL last year, which is good. No hurry to bring him over (he's not signed) unless the team has a spot in the AHL for him to play as a starter, or they believe he's ready for an NHL role.

The Oilers are already trending towards making bigger bets on goalies, because their strategy of taking a goalie late every year just hasn't worked. Even so, there's no sure things in the current group.

All that said, I don't know much about Askarov - have not seen him play - but if the scouts believe he looks like a surefire NHLer, then I'd definitely consider spending a second half of the first round pick to get a good netminder for the future. Bonus with him would be that as he's Russian, you could leave him in the KHL as long as he's on a team who's going to play him more than half the games, which would allow you to continue grooming Skinner and Rodigue (or possibly even Konovalov).




You forgot about our boy, Hayden Hawkey



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762185 is a reply to message #762178 ]
Tue, 23 June 2020 09:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 23 June 2020 07:32


You forgot about our boy, Hayden Hawkey


Not an Oilers draft pick, but interesting case study all the same.

Drafted by the Canadiens in the 6th round in 2014 and came here in a trade (for a 2019 5th round pick in 2018). I don't quite understand the move. It doesn't look like we signed him when he finished his college career, despite decent numbers. He joined an ECHL team (the Kansas City Mavericks) and got in all of three games last year getting lit right up for 14 goals. Kind of an odd use of a pick for the Oilers, since given all the goalies we've drafted the last few years, he was always going to be in tough to get playing time and given that it was just before his senior year it meant the Oilers only had his rights for another few months after that trade before they'd need to decide whether to sign him or pass on him.

Decent asset management by the Habs. They manage to not just get another at-bat for their dud prospect, but actually upgrade it. To be fair, Hawkey's college numbers were decent, but there must be something about his game the scouts don't like. Most recent news on him is that he's part of the protected roster for the ECHL's Greenville Swamp Monsters.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762187 is a reply to message #762185 ]
Tue, 23 June 2020 09:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7257
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

A suspect Chia move to get Hawkey? No way!! icon_lol


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762516 is a reply to message #762004 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 3638
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

3 Cups

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762517 is a reply to message #762516 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 13:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20529
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You missed the super simple explanation for how the draft works? :)

http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=tree&th=47112&m id=760727&rid=77&SQ=bf4b6c5a96ff89eb27a80b9b0b9cf038 &rev=&reveal=

Lottery has 8 placeholder spots that can win picks. If a 8-15 placeholder position wins 1 or more picks, those picks are set aside for a future lottery after the play-in round. Play-in loser teams will all have an equal odds chance to win those picks in the 8 team lottery.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762518 is a reply to message #762517 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 13:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 3638
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

3 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:19

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You missed the super simple explanation for how the draft works? :)

http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=tree&th=47112&m id=760727&rid=77&SQ=bf4b6c5a96ff89eb27a80b9b0b9cf038 &rev=&reveal=

Lottery has 8 placeholder spots that can win picks. If a 8-15 placeholder position wins 1 or more picks, those picks are set aside for a future lottery after the play-in round. Play-in loser teams will all have an equal odds chance to win those picks.

Oh I see. But it would be clear that you have a 12.5% chance of winning first overall if it ends up going to the play-in bracket. Right?



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762520 is a reply to message #762518 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 13:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20529
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:19

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You missed the super simple explanation for how the draft works? :)

http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=tree&th=47112&m id=760727&rid=77&SQ=bf4b6c5a96ff89eb27a80b9b0b9cf038 &rev=&reveal=

Lottery has 8 placeholder spots that can win picks. If a 8-15 placeholder position wins 1 or more picks, those picks are set aside for a future lottery after the play-in round. Play-in loser teams will all have an equal odds chance to win those picks.

Oh I see. But it would be clear that you have a 12.5% chance of winning first overall if it ends up going to the play-in bracket. Right?


Yup. Think that would be the case if a placeholder spot wins #1OA. If all 3 lottery picks end up in the placeholder group, that would be pretty wild. 3/8 shot at a lottery pick if you fail at the play-in. Kinda scary actually...since we're due for a lottery pick win.

[Updated on: Thu, 25 June 2020 13:40]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762524 is a reply to message #762520 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 14:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:38

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:19

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You missed the super simple explanation for how the draft works? :)

http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=tree&th=47112&m id=760727&rid=77&SQ=bf4b6c5a96ff89eb27a80b9b0b9cf038 &rev=&reveal=

Lottery has 8 placeholder spots that can win picks. If a 8-15 placeholder position wins 1 or more picks, those picks are set aside for a future lottery after the play-in round. Play-in loser teams will all have an equal odds chance to win those picks.

Oh I see. But it would be clear that you have a 12.5% chance of winning first overall if it ends up going to the play-in bracket. Right?


Yup. Think that would be the case if a placeholder spot wins #1OA. If all 3 lottery picks end up in the placeholder group, that would be pretty wild. 3/8 shot at a lottery pick if you fail at the play-in. Kinda scary actually...since we're due for a lottery pick win.


Why on earth would they do a lottery that doesn't actually announce who drafts when? Bizarre.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762526 is a reply to message #762524 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 14:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20529
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 14:06

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:38

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:19

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You missed the super simple explanation for how the draft works? :)

http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=tree&th=47112&m id=760727&rid=77&SQ=bf4b6c5a96ff89eb27a80b9b0b9cf038 &rev=&reveal=

Lottery has 8 placeholder spots that can win picks. If a 8-15 placeholder position wins 1 or more picks, those picks are set aside for a future lottery after the play-in round. Play-in loser teams will all have an equal odds chance to win those picks.

Oh I see. But it would be clear that you have a 12.5% chance of winning first overall if it ends up going to the play-in bracket. Right?


Yup. Think that would be the case if a placeholder spot wins #1OA. If all 3 lottery picks end up in the placeholder group, that would be pretty wild. 3/8 shot at a lottery pick if you fail at the play-in. Kinda scary actually...since we're due for a lottery pick win.


Why on earth would they do a lottery that doesn't actually announce who drafts when? Bizarre.


Odds are not bad that all 3 picks will be decided right away, being won by the 1-7 teams.

Not sure what better way there is to do this. Even if you decide the 8-15 order will fall back on the standing positions of the play-in loser teams, you still have no idea what that will look like until the play-in round is done, or at least most of the series are done.

And if the purpose of the play-in is making up for how teams played different amounts of games and how things could have changed to the end of the season, it doesn't actually make sense to order those 8 teams by standings spots either. Lottery probably makes more sense.


Or do you just mean why hold the lottery now and not until the play-in is over? Probably for some extra advertising time :) If they waited, they would have to do a 8-15 order lottery first. Then do the real lottery where 8-15 could just win nothing anyways.

[Updated on: Thu, 25 June 2020 14:19]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762531 is a reply to message #762526 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 14:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17027
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 14:16

Adam wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 14:06

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:38

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:21

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:19

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


You missed the super simple explanation for how the draft works? :)

http://oilfans.com/forum/index.php?t=tree&th=47112&m id=760727&rid=77&SQ=bf4b6c5a96ff89eb27a80b9b0b9cf038 &rev=&reveal=

Lottery has 8 placeholder spots that can win picks. If a 8-15 placeholder position wins 1 or more picks, those picks are set aside for a future lottery after the play-in round. Play-in loser teams will all have an equal odds chance to win those picks.

Oh I see. But it would be clear that you have a 12.5% chance of winning first overall if it ends up going to the play-in bracket. Right?


Yup. Think that would be the case if a placeholder spot wins #1OA. If all 3 lottery picks end up in the placeholder group, that would be pretty wild. 3/8 shot at a lottery pick if you fail at the play-in. Kinda scary actually...since we're due for a lottery pick win.


Why on earth would they do a lottery that doesn't actually announce who drafts when? Bizarre.


Odds are not bad that all 3 picks will be decided right away, being won by the 1-7 teams.

Not sure what better way there is to do this. Even if you decide the 8-15 order will fall back on the standing positions of the play-in loser teams, you still have no idea what that will look like until the play-in round is done, or at least most of the series are done.

And if the purpose of the play-in is making up for how teams played different amounts of games and how things could have changed to the end of the season, it doesn't actually make sense to order those 8 teams by standings spots either. Lottery probably makes more sense.


Or do you just mean why hold the lottery now and not until the play-in is over? Probably for some extra advertising time :) If they waited, they would have to do a 8-15 order lottery first. Then do the real lottery where 8-15 could just win nothing anyways.


Yes - my biggest question is what's the rush to do this now? I guess you're right. They're just thinking people will watch anything these days.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #767551 is a reply to message #762531 ]
Sun, 04 October 2020 19:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
GabbyDugan  is currently offline GabbyDugan
Messages: 2240
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton, AB

2 Cups

Not sure if this is real deal or if the Oilers are just trying to misdirect other NHL teams. Anyways, from the Oilers Twitter account.


The #Oilers have deployed their first-round pick on defencemen two years in a row, selecting Evan Bouchard in 2018 & Philip Broberg in 2019.

If they choose to make it a hat-trick, @NHLCentralScout
's top-ranked @TheWHL
skater Kaiden Guhle may be an option.




Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #767553 is a reply to message #767551 ]
Sun, 04 October 2020 20:29 Go to previous message
inverno76  is currently offline inverno76
Messages: 2342
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

GabbyDugan wrote on Sun, 04 October 2020 19:52

Not sure if this is real deal or if the Oilers are just trying to misdirect other NHL teams. Anyways, from the Oilers Twitter account.


The #Oilers have deployed their first-round pick on defencemen two years in a row, selecting Evan Bouchard in 2018 & Philip Broberg in 2019.

If they choose to make it a hat-trick, @NHLCentralScout
's top-ranked @TheWHL
skater Kaiden Guhle may be an option.


I’ve watched Guhle a lot. He got held back by Habschied. He prefers 20 year olds running the PP. The Raiders took a big upturn in the new year. Two things changed. New tender and Guhle started running the PP.

All being said. We need a goal scoring winger unless we trade a D prospect. Guhle will be a solid NHL’er. Skates. Hits. Smart.



Send a private message to this user  

 Re: 2020 NHL Draft Prospects [message #762519 is a reply to message #762516 ]
Thu, 25 June 2020 13:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
Messages: 3841
Registered: January 2006
Location: Parts Unknown

3 Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 25 June 2020 13:16

With the lottery happening tomorrow, is it possible that a team could know, part way through their play-in series that losing would mean they get to draft first overall?


No, part A of the lottery is tomorrow. If a "playoff" spot(s) is chosen for a top 3 pick, there will be another lottery with just the first round losers to decide that/those.



Send a private message to this user  

 
Previous Topic:Grabner?
Next Topic:Lehner has deal in place with VGK: 5 year / $25MM
Oilers NHL Minors Speculation For Sale 


Copyright © OilFans.com 1996-2021.
All content is property of OilFans.com and cannot be used without expressed, written consent from this site.
Questions, comments and suggestions can be directed to oilfans@OilFans.com
Privacy Statement


Hosted by LogicalHosting.ca