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 Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732850]
Tue, 12 March 2019 08:53 Go to next message
WhoreableGuy  is currently offline WhoreableGuy
Messages: 1632
Registered: August 2006
Location: Calgary

1 Cup

Numbers taken from :

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Edmonton. html

With the win over NYR the Oilers are at a 5.0% chance of making it in.
I like using the weighted method, I think it's more realistic than the 50/50 coin toss.
I think a 10-2-1 gets the Oilers in, SportsClubStats says that record would be an 80% chance to make it to the Post Season.

How do you think the remaining games will play out?

Wed, Mar 13 vs. NJD - W
Sat, Mar 16 @ ARI - W
Sun, Mar 17 @ VGK - OTL
Tue, Mar 19 @ STL - L
Thu, Mar 21 vs. CBJ - W
Sat, Mar 23 vs. OTT - W
Tue, Mar 26 vs. LAK - W
Thu, Mar 28 vs. DAL -W
Sat, Mar 30 vs. ANA - W
Mon, Apr 1 @ VGK - W
Tue, Apr 2 @ COL - W
Thu, Apr 4 vs. SJS - L
Sat, Apr 6 @ CGY - OTW

Looking at the schedule it's going to be real difficult to go 10-2-1, only positive is that they control their own destiny, a lot of games against teams they are trying to leapfrog.

I don't know if I could handle it coming down to the final game (BOA), but looking where the Oilers are now I'd take a one game eliminator game.

If anyone is confused about all these numbers and percentages, here is Scott Steiner explaining the Oilers chances :







"Bah Gawd! Would somebody stop the damn draft!"

- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732861 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 10:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Rocksteady  is currently offline Rocksteady
Messages: 2408
Registered: March 2007

2 Cups

I don't know.. I just don't think they have the horses in the barn..


The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732867 is a reply to message #732861 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 12:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jds308  is currently offline jds308
Messages: 1172
Registered: September 2007
Location: Summerland

1 Cup

Let's face it, our playoffs are happening right now. It's easy to be pessimistic, bitter, angry, etc. about the season and all that sucked. The fact is, had we not squandered so many points earlier in the year, we wouldn't need to go on such a tear right now just for a minuscule chance of playoffs. Regardless, this is where we're at and I've actually been somewhat enjoying the ride. I don't expect them to get in, but for years people have been saying that playing meaningful games in March is a realistic and acceptable goal for this team. Well, here we are. It hasn't been pretty, but it's March 12th, we're 5 points out and every game still means something. This is way better than just hoping for losses and McDavid points. I for one, want to see a strong finish to the season. I hope it comes down to the last game of the year, and if we miss out I hope it's because the Wild or the Stars stayed ahead, not because we couldn't win the games. Eff the draft position.


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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732871 is a reply to message #732867 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 12:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
Messages: 3847
Registered: May 2009
Location: Saskatoon

3 Cups

jds308 wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 12:16

Let's face it, our playoffs are happening right now. It's easy to be pessimistic, bitter, angry, etc. about the season and all that sucked. The fact is, had we not squandered so many points earlier in the year, we wouldn't need to go on such a tear right now just for a minuscule chance of playoffs. Regardless, this is where we're at and I've actually been somewhat enjoying the ride. I don't expect them to get in, but for years people have been saying that playing meaningful games in March is a realistic and acceptable goal for this team. Well, here we are. It hasn't been pretty, but it's March 12th, we're 5 points out and every game still means something. This is way better than just hoping for losses and McDavid points. I for one, want to see a strong finish to the season. I hope it comes down to the last game of the year, and if we miss out I hope it's because the Wild or the Stars stayed ahead, not because we couldn't win the games. Eff the draft position.


But. But. ORPP!



Two time Survivor CHAMP

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Survivor 52 | Survivor 66

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732868 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 12:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
Messages: 5173
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC

5 Cups

LOL that Steiner promo is the greatest. There’s tons of videos of him giving promos on YouTube and they are legendary.

Simple version: 13 games, and if we lose more than 3 then we’re gone.

No idea if, but it should atleast be an exciting ride on McDavid’s shoulders.



Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732869 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 12:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mullet  is currently offline Mullet
Messages: 620
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

No Cups

Wed, Mar 13 vs. NJD - W
Sat, Mar 16 @ ARI - W
Sun, Mar 17 @ VGK - L
Tue, Mar 19 @ STL - W
Thu, Mar 21 vs. CBJ - L
Sat, Mar 23 vs. OTT - W
Tue, Mar 26 vs. LAK - W
Thu, Mar 28 vs. DAL -W
Sat, Mar 30 vs. ANA - W
Mon, Apr 1 @ VGK - L
Tue, Apr 2 @ COL - W
Thu, Apr 4 vs. SJS - L
Sat, Apr 6 @ CGY - L

8-5 Maybe next year.



WARNING: The consumption of alcohol may create the illusion that you are tougher, smarter, faster and better looking than most people.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732872 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 12:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
Messages: 5173
Registered: July 2007
Location: Port Moody, BC

5 Cups

Making the playoffs at this point would require a Rodney Dangerfield pulling off the Triple Lindy to graduate college level event. And much Rodney, Oilers and is get no respect. I say go for it!




Illegitimi non carborundum.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732917 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 19:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
AndersonRules  is currently offline AndersonRules
Messages: 342
Registered: April 2008
Location: Shawnee, Oklahoma (OKC ar...

No Cups

If the Oilers are able to go at least 7-2 over the next 9 (the easiest stretch), they'll have a solid chance headed into the last 4 games.

Wins against New Jersey and Arizona are absolute necessities; then win against either Vegas or St. Louis.

Come home and win at least 4 out of the 5-game homestand, with all five games being winnable.

Then you've got 4 tough games to finish against Vegas, Colorado, San Jose, and Calgary.

Personally, I'd be pretty content if they win 7 out of 9 to set up a meaningful last 4 games of the season. In fact, I'd wager that if they DO go 7-2 or better in the next 9, they'll be sitting in a playoff spot headed into the final 4 games. (Any takers?)

Unfortunately, my expectation is that they'll resume their win 1, lose 2 pattern, and be long gone before the final 4.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732919 is a reply to message #732917 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 20:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
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Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff

3 Cups

They are 7-2-1 in their last 10. So shouldn’t be that much of a stretch.


2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732920 is a reply to message #732919 ]
Tue, 12 March 2019 20:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
Messages: 10295
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Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Magnum wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 20:01

They are 7-2-1 in their last 10. So shouldn’t be that much of a stretch.

The the Oilers go 7-2-1 and then 7-2-1, they’ll be right back in it. Probably.

Trust the plan, I guess.



This is fine.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732931 is a reply to message #732920 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 06:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
inverno76  is currently offline inverno76
Messages: 1211
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

1 Cup

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 20:59

Magnum wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 20:01

They are 7-2-1 in their last 10. So shouldn’t be that much of a stretch.

The the Oilers go 7-2-1 and then 7-2-1, they’ll be right back in it. Probably.

Trust the plan, I guess.


If we go 7-2 in the next 9 we have a shot in the final 4 games. The playoff should be rating some of their top players assuming the seedlings are confirmed.

Maybe the Flames won’t dress a tendy in that last game so they get us in the 1st round.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732932 is a reply to message #732931 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 07:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
Messages: 3851
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

3 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 09:54

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 20:59

Magnum wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 20:01

They are 7-2-1 in their last 10. So shouldn’t be that much of a stretch.

The the Oilers go 7-2-1 and then 7-2-1, they’ll be right back in it. Probably.

Trust the plan, I guess.


If we go 7-2 in the next 9 we have a shot in the final 4 games. The playoff should be rating some of their top players assuming the seedlings are confirmed.

Maybe the Flames won’t dress a tendy in that last game so they get us in the 1st round.



We can lose 2, MAYBE 3, but not 4 I don't think. And the game against Arizona is obviously must win.

They won last night and now we are back to being 6 back. Not looking good, but certainly more fun than being out in December.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732933 is a reply to message #732932 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 08:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mazankowski  is currently offline mazankowski
Messages: 392
Registered: June 2006
Location: Kelowna BC

No Cups

Such a valid point from jds308 that this is in fact our playoffs. Personally, I am getting excited for each of these games and the hockey has been pretty good! Looking at the schedule, it looks like 10-3 or 10-2-1 get you in, but if you go 9-3-, 8-2-2 or 9-4 it's going to be tough, but not impossible. I look at the teams ahead of us battling for the final wild card position (because Dallas/St Louis has the other one basically locked up).

Minnie, AZ, Colorado, Chicago, Edmonton.

Minnie has one helluva tough schedule and I just don't see them sustaining their position, but hell, they just beat Tampa Bay, Calgary, St. Louis, Winnipeg and took the Preds to SO's twice in the last 2 weeks.

Chicago also has a tough remaining one, but they have some 4 point games with 2 games vs Colorado and 1 vs Arizona. They also are playing some amazing hockey. 6 remaining games at home.

Colorado has a schedule whereby they really control their own destiny. They play Anaheim and the NJD next, so if they win both, they will then get to play 2 vs Chicago, 1 against us, 1 against AZ, and some tough ones scattered throughout. 7 remaining games at home.

Arizona has by far the easiest schedule. Not only do they get to play in 4 point games vs us, Colorado, Chicago and Minnie, they only have a couple tough games against TB and NYI. 6 games remaining at home.

Our schedule isn't awful, but not as easy as Arizona's. I agree that this upcoming 5 games is going to dictate our chances. If we can win 4-1 or go 3-1-1, then we still have a chance, with one of those wins coming in regulation against Arizona. If we go 2-2-1 then we're done. Simple. 7 remaining games at home.

On an aside, I really don't take much stock in the final week of the regular season matchups. Generally, the top seeds and positions are set, meaning a lot of healthy's in that week as recovery/rest days. So teams like Arizona who play Vegas and Winnipeg in that final week, may see those teams 3rd and 4th lines playing 18 minutes and backup goalies between the pipes. In saying that, this is why I don't trust strength of schedule websites. The alternative is in the Oilers case, whereby the last 2 games are against SJ and Calgary, who are currently sitting with a 1 point gap between eachother for the division lead. If they are that close or 2 points apart come that final week, then they still have something to play for.

If I'm in that room, we're goal setting and breaking down the schedule into mini series; best of 4, knowing that you need to get at least 5 points out of 8 available to win. Keeps the group focused on the task at hand, while not gripping the sticks too tight.

My gut tells me Arizona squeaks in, but I hope I'm wrong. I'd much rather see the Oilers obviously, but even Chicago or Colorado would be a lot more fun to watch than Arizona.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732936 is a reply to message #732933 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 08:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
Messages: 3847
Registered: May 2009
Location: Saskatoon

3 Cups

mazankowski wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 08:01

Such a valid point from jds308 that this is in fact our playoffs. Personally, I am getting excited for each of these games and the hockey has been pretty good! Looking at the schedule, it looks like 10-3 or 10-2-1 get you in, but if you go 9-3-, 8-2-2 or 9-4 it's going to be tough, but not impossible. I look at the teams ahead of us battling for the final wild card position (because Dallas/St Louis has the other one basically locked up).

Minnie, AZ, Colorado, Chicago, Edmonton.

Minnie has one helluva tough schedule and I just don't see them sustaining their position, but hell, they just beat Tampa Bay, Calgary, St. Louis, Winnipeg and took the Preds to SO's twice in the last 2 weeks.

Chicago also has a tough remaining one, but they have some 4 point games with 2 games vs Colorado and 1 vs Arizona. They also are playing some amazing hockey. 6 remaining games at home.

Colorado has a schedule whereby they really control their own destiny. They play Anaheim and the NJD next, so if they win both, they will then get to play 2 vs Chicago, 1 against us, 1 against AZ, and some tough ones scattered throughout. 7 remaining games at home.

Arizona has by far the easiest schedule. Not only do they get to play in 4 point games vs us, Colorado, Chicago and Minnie, they only have a couple tough games against TB and NYI. 6 games remaining at home.

Our schedule isn't awful, but not as easy as Arizona's. I agree that this upcoming 5 games is going to dictate our chances. If we can win 4-1 or go 3-1-1, then we still have a chance, with one of those wins coming in regulation against Arizona. If we go 2-2-1 then we're done. Simple. 7 remaining games at home.

On an aside, I really don't take much stock in the final week of the regular season matchups. Generally, the top seeds and positions are set, meaning a lot of healthy's in that week as recovery/rest days. So teams like Arizona who play Vegas and Winnipeg in that final week, may see those teams 3rd and 4th lines playing 18 minutes and backup goalies between the pipes. In saying that, this is why I don't trust strength of schedule websites. The alternative is in the Oilers case, whereby the last 2 games are against SJ and Calgary, who are currently sitting with a 1 point gap between eachother for the division lead. If they are that close or 2 points apart come that final week, then they still have something to play for.

If I'm in that room, we're goal setting and breaking down the schedule into mini series; best of 4, knowing that you need to get at least 5 points out of 8 available to win. Keeps the group focused on the task at hand, while not gripping the sticks too tight.

My gut tells me Arizona squeaks in, but I hope I'm wrong. I'd much rather see the Oilers obviously, but even Chicago or Colorado would be a lot more fun to watch than Arizona.



We must be both drinking from the same well, bc my guy says Arizona is the team (I believe) we fall short too. Though, I’d sure love me some ORPP!



Two time Survivor CHAMP

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Survivor 52 | Survivor 66

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732950 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 09:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 12387
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

I looked at the wild card race for both conferences today. First the East, where I see Philly is 5 points out - and dismiss them as a contender, then to the West, where the Oilers are 6 points out and have to leapfrog two extra teams. The saving grace comes only in the fact that the West Wild Card teams are so much worse than the East. Philly, with 76 points is in a playoff spot if they're a Western team. Montreal would go from 9th in the East to battling for a non-Wild Card playoff spot in the West. They'd be almost a shoo-in for a playoff spot now - only four Western teams have better records. Buffalo, 12 points out in the East and dead in the water, has the same number of points as the Oilers.

The Great Turtle Race has kept the Oilers alive this year, but the team will have to be incredible down the stretch to make it. Goal differential is a pretty accurate predictor for playoff teams - most of the one with a positive number make it, most with a negative number don't. This year, there's 17 teams on the positive side of the ledger - all of them sit in playoff spots but Montreal (+3) and Colorado (+5). There are 15 teams on the negative side - and only Arizona (-9) is in a playoff spot today. The Oilers are a woeful -28, good for the 24th best differential in the league. I'd expect they'd have to bring their differential to close to 0 if they have any hope at all here...which is a massive task for this team.



"This team needs an enema!"
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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #732956 is a reply to message #732950 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 09:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 5056
Registered: January 2016

5 Cups

The Oilers used to do this all the time in the Smyth days. Go on some insane 12-2 run at the end of the year, make it in on the last day. It's unlikely but anything is possible.


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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733026 is a reply to message #732956 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
stemhovlichski  is currently offline stemhovlichski
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No Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 09:49

The Oilers used to do this all the time in the Smyth days. Go on some insane 12-2 run at the end of the year, make it in on the last day. It's unlikely but anything is possible.


Or like 2003-4 where they went on a tear at the end but lost two of the last three games to miss the playoffs...that's what I'm dreading this year.



Restored: "We're sucking hind banana here." - Pat Quinn, Jan 18, 2010


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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733029 is a reply to message #733026 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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6 Cups

stemhovlichski wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:10

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 09:49

The Oilers used to do this all the time in the Smyth days. Go on some insane 12-2 run at the end of the year, make it in on the last day. It's unlikely but anything is possible.


Or like 2003-4 where they went on a tear at the end but lost two of the last three games to miss the playoffs...that's what I'm dreading this year.

"They were so close. Stay the course".



This is fine.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733885 is a reply to message #732950 ]
Sat, 23 March 2019 08:21 Go to previous message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 12387
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 09:38

I looked at the wild card race for both conferences today. First the East, where I see Philly is 5 points out - and dismiss them as a contender, then to the West, where the Oilers are 6 points out and have to leapfrog two extra teams. The saving grace comes only in the fact that the West Wild Card teams are so much worse than the East. Philly, with 76 points is in a playoff spot if they're a Western team. Montreal would go from 9th in the East to battling for a non-Wild Card playoff spot in the West. They'd be almost a shoo-in for a playoff spot now - only four Western teams have better records. Buffalo, 12 points out in the East and dead in the water, has the same number of points as the Oilers.

The Great Turtle Race has kept the Oilers alive this year, but the team will have to be incredible down the stretch to make it. Goal differential is a pretty accurate predictor for playoff teams - most of the one with a positive number make it, most with a negative number don't. This year, there's 17 teams on the positive side of the ledger - all of them sit in playoff spots but Montreal (+3) and Colorado (+5). There are 15 teams on the negative side - and only Arizona (-9) is in a playoff spot today. The Oilers are a woeful -28, good for the 24th best differential in the league. I'd expect they'd have to bring their differential to close to 0 if they have any hope at all here...which is a massive task for this team.


10 days later and the Turtle Race continues. The Oilers are 6 point out still, but the differential has swelled to -35, and they would have to pass five different teams in the last 8 games. The opportunity was there for the team, but they've just continued to faceplant too many times.



"This team needs an enema!"
#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan #FireBobbyNicks and...SIGH...#FireTheGretzkys

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733030 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24  is currently offline K.McC#24
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3 Cups

WhoreableGuy wrote on Tue, 12 March 2019 08:53

Numbers taken from :

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Edmonton. html

With the win over NYR the Oilers are at a 5.0% chance of making it in.
I like using the weighted method, I think it's more realistic than the 50/50 coin toss.
I think a 10-2-1 gets the Oilers in, SportsClubStats says that record would be an 80% chance to make it to the Post Season.

How do you think the remaining games will play out?

Wed, Mar 13 vs. NJD - W
Sat, Mar 16 @ ARI - W
Sun, Mar 17 @ VGK - OTL
Tue, Mar 19 @ STL - L
Thu, Mar 21 vs. CBJ - W
Sat, Mar 23 vs. OTT - W
Tue, Mar 26 vs. LAK - W
Thu, Mar 28 vs. DAL -W
Sat, Mar 30 vs. ANA - W
Mon, Apr 1 @ VGK - W
Tue, Apr 2 @ COL - W
Thu, Apr 4 vs. SJS - L
Sat, Apr 6 @ CGY - OTW

Looking at the schedule it's going to be real difficult to go 10-2-1, only positive is that they control their own destiny, a lot of games against teams they are trying to leapfrog.

I don't know if I could handle it coming down to the final game (BOA), but looking where the Oilers are now I'd take a one game eliminator game.

If anyone is confused about all these numbers and percentages, here is Scott Steiner explaining the Oilers chances :







Don't really like the schedule, hence the 5% chances. Get your wins early, that's the only way....run off 6 of the next 7 and they're right there. Get shoulder to shoulder with some of these teams, maybe pass a couple, and someone's going to blink....the Oilers have to make sure it's not them.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733032 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
Messages: 2362
Registered: July 2006
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2 Cups

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.



Survivor LX(I) and 67 Champ(i)on


CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

und(i)sputed O.L.F.N Heavybra(i)n Champ(i)on of the Woooooooooooooooooorld. Plus. One.

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733033 is a reply to message #733032 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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3 Cups

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.

Toss the one in the pool!!!

ORPP!!



Two time Survivor CHAMP

#MUSTWIN

Survivor 52 | Survivor 66

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733040 is a reply to message #733033 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 18:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
Messages: 3327
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Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff

3 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:49

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.

Toss the one in the pool!!!

ORPP!!


If the Oilers win the lottery, the league will fold into itself.



2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733048 is a reply to message #733040 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 19:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oscargasm  is currently offline Oscargasm
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3 Cups

Magnum wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 18:36

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:49

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.

Toss the one in the pool!!!

ORPP!!


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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733036 is a reply to message #733032 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.


The better guess is probably that they both remain about the same.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733037 is a reply to message #733036 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 16:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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K.McC#24 wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:51

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.


The better guess is probably that they both remain about the same.



Oh, I wont be making any bets thats for sure.

While I have had moments of hope in the last 6 months I have held pretty strong that this wasnt a playoff team.

I do find numbers interesting and watching them change from day to day this time of year.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733039 is a reply to message #733037 ]
Wed, 13 March 2019 17:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:55

K.McC#24 wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:51

PlusOne wrote on Wed, 13 March 2019 16:45

As good a place as any for the other side of this coin;

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

3.5% chance of 1st overall.

11.4% chance of a top 3 pick.

Hopefully it will be fun to watch this number shrink while the other one grows.


The better guess is probably that they both remain about the same.



Oh, I wont be making any bets thats for sure.

While I have had moments of hope in the last 6 months I have held pretty strong that this wasnt a playoff team.

I do find numbers interesting and watching them change from day to day this time of year.


Yeah, for me given the last couple years, it's good to watch what is the most part competent hockey with a glimmer of hope, even if I'm still PVRing every game.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733183 is a reply to message #732850 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 09:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Well with the Coyotes win last night the Oilers have to go 11-1-0 to guarantee a spot.

Lock this thread up boys, it was a fun 3 days while it lasted.



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- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733184 is a reply to message #733183 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 09:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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WhoreableGuy wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 09:16

Well with the Coyotes win last night the Oilers have to go 11-1-0 to guarantee a spot.

Lock this thread up boys, it was a fun 3 days while it lasted.


It was good to hear from Hitch that the players were all obsessing and talking about the math of how to make the playoffs. So they knew, with complete accuracy, how screwed they were half way into the Jersey game :)



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733185 is a reply to message #733184 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 10:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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I get how lots of fans think the Oilers believing they still have a shot at playoffs is a joke but I am very happy they do believe and except for the Devils game have been playing hard and playing well. I am not naive enough to not realize that a big part of the Oilers problems has been the roster and the sins of the previous GM. They have holes and it's Chia's fault. But part of the problem is also there are WAY too many guys year after year who have flat out underperformed.

Kassian has been excellent over the last couple of months. He's been the player the Oilers thought they had when signed in to this current contract. Where was that player last year or for 3/4 of this year?

Benning has been really good for a good month now. He was a tire fire for most of last year and most of this year. Where was that guy earlier?

Leon has been good for the Oilers ever since he got here but in the last couple of months, he's taken his game to a whole new level. He went from a really good player to a legit superstar. What would have happened if Leon found this new gear say before Christmas?

Gagner has taken over Spooners spot and given the Oilers what they thought Spooner would bring. Some depth scoring. The Spooner trade for Strome was bad but what reason did Spooner have to be so bad? He's not old, he can skate, had a history of scoring. What happened?

Rieder before this year, his worse goal total was 12. He's got ZERO in 56 games. Every year he has been in the NHL he has scored 12 or more goals. How can a guy score zero in 56 games. I don't know if he even scores 1 this year. How does that happen? If he could have scored 5 goals this season, a bad year for him, that would have been huge.

Talbot before he was traded was below .900 all year I believe. When he left the Oilers, he was .893 and 3.36. Those are horrible NHL numbers and it's not all on the defense. What if he was at .903, still not very good NHL wise but it would have made a difference.

There is 6 guys who if they played just a little bit better, at the very least the Oilers would be closer. So I am really happy to see that the Oilers still have something to play for even if it's a longish shot. Hopefully having to play high intensity, difficult games night after night will instill some lessons into these guys on what it takes that will translate to next year. What it also does show is who on this team are guys who keep pushing or who fold up and go into cruise control.





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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733186 is a reply to message #733185 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 10:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:05

I get how lots of fans think the Oilers believing they still have a shot at playoffs is a joke but I am very happy they do believe and except for the Devils game have been playing hard and playing well. I am not naive enough to not realize that a big part of the Oilers problems has been the roster and the sins of the previous GM. They have holes and it's Chia's fault. But part of the problem is also there are WAY too many guys year after year who have flat out underperformed.

Kassian has been excellent over the last couple of months. He's been the player the Oilers thought they had when signed in to this current contract. Where was that player last year or for 3/4 of this year?

Benning has been really good for a good month now. He was a tire fire for most of last year and most of this year. Where was that guy earlier?

Leon has been good for the Oilers ever since he got here but in the last couple of months, he's taken his game to a whole new level. He went from a really good player to a legit superstar. What would have happened if Leon found this new gear say before Christmas?

Gagner has taken over Spooners spot and given the Oilers what they thought Spooner would bring. Some depth scoring. The Spooner trade for Strome was bad but what reason did Spooner have to be so bad? He's not old, he can skate, had a history of scoring. What happened?

Rieder before this year, his worse goal total was 12. He's got ZERO in 56 games. Every year he has been in the NHL he has scored 12 or more goals. How can a guy score zero in 56 games. I don't know if he even scores 1 this year. How does that happen? If he could have scored 5 goals this season, a bad year for him, that would have been huge.

Talbot before he was traded was below .900 all year I believe. When he left the Oilers, he was .893 and 3.36. Those are horrible NHL numbers and it's not all on the defense. What if he was at .903, still not very good NHL wise but it would have made a difference.

There is 6 guys who if they played just a little bit better, at the very least the Oilers would be closer. So I am really happy to see that the Oilers still have something to play for even if it's a longish shot. Hopefully having to play high intensity, difficult games night after night will instill some lessons into these guys on what it takes that will translate to next year. What it also does show is who on this team are guys who keep pushing or who fold up and go into cruise control.





I have nothing against them believing, but they probably head-f'd themselves going nuts about the math. Half way into that Jersey game, they very much looked like a team that was in full panic mode and guys were making all kinds of mistakes from hesitation and forcing plays. Oh well though, bad games happen and they have been playing pretty well since Sek came back. Definitely would not disagree it's been better lately.

This season was really lost in those 2 months where we lost one of our only puck movers, and Russell and replaced them with pylons. Took us from a borderline wildcard team to a lottery team in that period. We're back to borderline wildcard quality again, but the hole we dug in those 2 months as too deep to get out of.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733187 is a reply to message #733186 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 10:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:10

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:05

I get how lots of fans think the Oilers believing they still have a shot at playoffs is a joke but I am very happy they do believe and except for the Devils game have been playing hard and playing well. I am not naive enough to not realize that a big part of the Oilers problems has been the roster and the sins of the previous GM. They have holes and it's Chia's fault. But part of the problem is also there are WAY too many guys year after year who have flat out underperformed.

Kassian has been excellent over the last couple of months. He's been the player the Oilers thought they had when signed in to this current contract. Where was that player last year or for 3/4 of this year?

Benning has been really good for a good month now. He was a tire fire for most of last year and most of this year. Where was that guy earlier?

Leon has been good for the Oilers ever since he got here but in the last couple of months, he's taken his game to a whole new level. He went from a really good player to a legit superstar. What would have happened if Leon found this new gear say before Christmas?

Gagner has taken over Spooners spot and given the Oilers what they thought Spooner would bring. Some depth scoring. The Spooner trade for Strome was bad but what reason did Spooner have to be so bad? He's not old, he can skate, had a history of scoring. What happened?

Rieder before this year, his worse goal total was 12. He's got ZERO in 56 games. Every year he has been in the NHL he has scored 12 or more goals. How can a guy score zero in 56 games. I don't know if he even scores 1 this year. How does that happen? If he could have scored 5 goals this season, a bad year for him, that would have been huge.

Talbot before he was traded was below .900 all year I believe. When he left the Oilers, he was .893 and 3.36. Those are horrible NHL numbers and it's not all on the defense. What if he was at .903, still not very good NHL wise but it would have made a difference.

There is 6 guys who if they played just a little bit better, at the very least the Oilers would be closer. So I am really happy to see that the Oilers still have something to play for even if it's a longish shot. Hopefully having to play high intensity, difficult games night after night will instill some lessons into these guys on what it takes that will translate to next year. What it also does show is who on this team are guys who keep pushing or who fold up and go into cruise control.





I have nothing against them believing, but they probably head-f'd themselves going nuts about the math. Half way into that Jersey game, they very much looked like a team that was in full panic mode and guys were making all kinds of mistakes from hesitation and forcing plays. Oh well though, bad games happen and they have been playing pretty well since Sek came back. Definitely would not disagree it's been better lately.

This season was really lost in those 2 months where we lost one of our only puck movers, and Russell and replaced them with pylons. Took us from a borderline wildcard team to a lottery team in that period. We're back to borderline wildcard quality again, but the hole we dug in those 2 months as too deep to get out of.

I agree with you, the playoffs were lost when they went on that really bad stretch. Still way better to see this team keep pushing right to the bitter end rather than roll over and die like past years. The Oilers will have roster holes to fill for next year but hopefully they can check off a couple of boxes on a spot or 2 for next year with guys they already have rather than cross their fingers and hope somehow some guy can take a step.

As an example. I have liked Cave's game a lot. He's currently slotted too high as the 3rd line center. I think they need to get a younger, faster and cheaper 4th line center than Brodziak and I think Cave might be that guy. That's one less hole to fill.

[Updated on: Fri, 15 March 2019 10:28]


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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733188 is a reply to message #733186 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 11:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:10

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:05

I get how lots of fans think the Oilers believing they still have a shot at playoffs is a joke but I am very happy they do believe and except for the Devils game have been playing hard and playing well. I am not naive enough to not realize that a big part of the Oilers problems has been the roster and the sins of the previous GM. They have holes and it's Chia's fault. But part of the problem is also there are WAY too many guys year after year who have flat out underperformed.

Kassian has been excellent over the last couple of months. He's been the player the Oilers thought they had when signed in to this current contract. Where was that player last year or for 3/4 of this year?

Benning has been really good for a good month now. He was a tire fire for most of last year and most of this year. Where was that guy earlier?

Leon has been good for the Oilers ever since he got here but in the last couple of months, he's taken his game to a whole new level. He went from a really good player to a legit superstar. What would have happened if Leon found this new gear say before Christmas?

Gagner has taken over Spooners spot and given the Oilers what they thought Spooner would bring. Some depth scoring. The Spooner trade for Strome was bad but what reason did Spooner have to be so bad? He's not old, he can skate, had a history of scoring. What happened?

Rieder before this year, his worse goal total was 12. He's got ZERO in 56 games. Every year he has been in the NHL he has scored 12 or more goals. How can a guy score zero in 56 games. I don't know if he even scores 1 this year. How does that happen? If he could have scored 5 goals this season, a bad year for him, that would have been huge.

Talbot before he was traded was below .900 all year I believe. When he left the Oilers, he was .893 and 3.36. Those are horrible NHL numbers and it's not all on the defense. What if he was at .903, still not very good NHL wise but it would have made a difference.

There is 6 guys who if they played just a little bit better, at the very least the Oilers would be closer. So I am really happy to see that the Oilers still have something to play for even if it's a longish shot. Hopefully having to play high intensity, difficult games night after night will instill some lessons into these guys on what it takes that will translate to next year. What it also does show is who on this team are guys who keep pushing or who fold up and go into cruise control.





I have nothing against them believing, but they probably head-f'd themselves going nuts about the math. Half way into that Jersey game, they very much looked like a team that was in full panic mode and guys were making all kinds of mistakes from hesitation and forcing plays. Oh well though, bad games happen and they have been playing pretty well since Sek came back. Definitely would not disagree it's been better lately.

This season was really lost in those 2 months where we lost one of our only puck movers, and Russell and replaced them with pylons. Took us from a borderline wildcard team to a lottery team in that period. We're back to borderline wildcard quality again, but the hole we dug in those 2 months as too deep to get out of.


Also, for the examples given like Kassian, Benning and Leon this last month or so is the abolute best the have played in thier career.

So is this a case of them not being good enough until the last month or this last month is the outlier?
For Draisaitl I think he can be a legit superstar.

For Kassian this month is an anomaly. There is no reason to believe he is a legit top 6 option.

Benning is still a wildcard.

What I am getting at is I dont see this as a case of the team finally playing like they can but rather a temporary spike.
Another example of the Org praying for a best case scenario outcome, hoping for career seasons to make the team competitive.

Year after year they expect players to be something they arent or have never been and wonder where things went wrong when they are outside the playoffs.



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CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 30 January 2020 12:21

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733189 is a reply to message #733188 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 11:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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PlusOne wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:27


Also, for the examples given like Kassian, Benning and Leon this last month or so is the abolute best the have played in thier career.

So is this a case of them not being good enough until the last month or this last month is the outlier?
For Draisaitl I think he can be a legit superstar.

For Kassian this month is an anomaly. There is no reason to believe he is a legit top 6 option.

Benning is still a wildcard.

What I am getting at is I dont see this as a case of the team finally playing like they can but rather a temporary spike.
Another example of the Org praying for a best case scenario outcome, hoping for career seasons to make the team competitive.

Year after year they expect players to be something they arent or have never been and wonder where things went wrong when they are outside the playoffs.



This is the correct mindset, at least in terms of how Oilers management should be approaching things. Fans can fan however they want.

Over the past 20 games, Kassian has scored 7 goals and 12 points. That projects out to 28 goals and 49 points over an 82 game season. There's nothing to indicate he can sustain this pace over a whole seasson.

I've talked about Drai before in terms of his shooting percentage and being careful in thinking he's going to repeat this year's numbers next year. At the same time, he's going to score close to 50 goals and 100 points. I'm not sure how anyone can say he's underperformed this year. Yes, he's also been better the last little bit. 15 goals and 28 points over the past 20 games. That projects to 61 goals and 115 points over an 82 game season. Again, I just don't think it's realistic to expect him to sustain the pace he's had over the past 20 games over a whole season. Guys have ebbs and flows over a season, no one scores at an even pace over 82 games.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 pace: 262 GF / 257 GA (+5) after 55 games

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733190 is a reply to message #733189 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 12:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:43

PlusOne wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 10:27


Also, for the examples given like Kassian, Benning and Leon this last month or so is the abolute best the have played in thier career.

So is this a case of them not being good enough until the last month or this last month is the outlier?
For Draisaitl I think he can be a legit superstar.

For Kassian this month is an anomaly. There is no reason to believe he is a legit top 6 option.

Benning is still a wildcard.

What I am getting at is I dont see this as a case of the team finally playing like they can but rather a temporary spike.
Another example of the Org praying for a best case scenario outcome, hoping for career seasons to make the team competitive.

Year after year they expect players to be something they arent or have never been and wonder where things went wrong when they are outside the playoffs.



This is the correct mindset, at least in terms of how Oilers management should be approaching things. Fans can fan however they want.

Over the past 20 games, Kassian has scored 7 goals and 12 points. That projects out to 28 goals and 49 points over an 82 game season. There's nothing to indicate he can sustain this pace over a whole seasson.

I've talked about Drai before in terms of his shooting percentage and being careful in thinking he's going to repeat this year's numbers next year. At the same time, he's going to score close to 50 goals and 100 points. I'm not sure how anyone can say he's underperformed this year. Yes, he's also been better the last little bit. 15 goals and 28 points over the past 20 games. That projects to 61 goals and 115 points over an 82 game season. Again, I just don't think it's realistic to expect him to sustain the pace he's had over the past 20 games over a whole season. Guys have ebbs and flows over a season, no one scores at an even pace over 82 games.

When it comes to guys like Kassian, I agree completely that I don't think he is a top 6 player. I looked at his game logs. In his last 22 games, he's scored 8 goals, 13 pts. That's top 6 numbers. I don't see that as sustainable at all. But in the 45 games previously, he had 4 goals 8 points. So what I want to see is what can he be normally. Over 82 games, if Kassian had 10+ goals, 25+ pts while being physical, tough, good on the forecheck type of guy, then he's useful to the team and fills a spot. If he's the 4 goal, 8 pt, mostly invisible guy he was in the first 45 games, then you have to get rid of him.

Same goes for Benning. Benning is doing very well right now and looks like a really solid NHLer. You could have him on your team and he'd help you for next season or use him as a piece to bring in a usable forward. But before this, for more than half the season, he looked like a borderline NHLer who from shift to shift looked like he couldn't play.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733191 is a reply to message #733190 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 12:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:12

Over 82 games, if Kassian had 10+ goals, 25+ pts while being physical, tough, good on the forecheck type of guy, then he's useful to the team and fills a spot. If he's the 4 goal, 8 pt, mostly invisible guy he was in the first 45 games, then you have to get rid of him.

Same goes for Benning. Benning is doing very well right now and looks like a really solid NHLer. You could have him on your team and he'd help you for next season or use him as a piece to bring in a usable forward. But before this, for more than half the season, he looked like a borderline NHLer who from shift to shift looked like he couldn't play.


I think they're both. This is what a 10 goal/20 point player looks like. He scores 8 points in 45 games and is invisible a lot of nights and then goes on a heater and scores 12-15 points in the next 37. Outside of the really elite guys, I think this type of pattern is pretty normal



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 pace: 262 GF / 257 GA (+5) after 55 games

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733192 is a reply to message #733191 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 12:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 12:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:12

Over 82 games, if Kassian had 10+ goals, 25+ pts while being physical, tough, good on the forecheck type of guy, then he's useful to the team and fills a spot. If he's the 4 goal, 8 pt, mostly invisible guy he was in the first 45 games, then you have to get rid of him.

Same goes for Benning. Benning is doing very well right now and looks like a really solid NHLer. You could have him on your team and he'd help you for next season or use him as a piece to bring in a usable forward. But before this, for more than half the season, he looked like a borderline NHLer who from shift to shift looked like he couldn't play.


I think they're both. This is what a 10 goal/20 point player looks like. He scores 8 points in 45 games and is invisible a lot of nights and then goes on a heater and scores 12-15 points in the next 37. Outside of the really elite guys, I think this type of pattern is pretty normal

For a player like Kassian, the points are only part of it. For more than half the season, the only way you knew Kassian played was if you looked at the game sheet and saw his name on it. Way, way too many nights he was completely invisible. If he is here next season, that can't happen.



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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733195 is a reply to message #733192 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 13:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:58

Goose wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 12:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:12

Over 82 games, if Kassian had 10+ goals, 25+ pts while being physical, tough, good on the forecheck type of guy, then he's useful to the team and fills a spot. If he's the 4 goal, 8 pt, mostly invisible guy he was in the first 45 games, then you have to get rid of him.

Same goes for Benning. Benning is doing very well right now and looks like a really solid NHLer. You could have him on your team and he'd help you for next season or use him as a piece to bring in a usable forward. But before this, for more than half the season, he looked like a borderline NHLer who from shift to shift looked like he couldn't play.


I think they're both. This is what a 10 goal/20 point player looks like. He scores 8 points in 45 games and is invisible a lot of nights and then goes on a heater and scores 12-15 points in the next 37. Outside of the really elite guys, I think this type of pattern is pretty normal

For a player like Kassian, the points are only part of it. For more than half the season, the only way you knew Kassian played was if you looked at the game sheet and saw his name on it. Way, way too many nights he was completely invisible. If he is here next season, that can't happen.


Ya, I agree that for Kassian points aren't the only part of it. But I think points are a decent proxy for the concept of performance and how that shows up on a nightly basis. Everyone has a range of performance levels. For a guy like Kassian that probably averages out as a lower tier 3rd liner, good 4th liner that means that his performance on any given night is going to range from looking like an AHLer to looking like a decent 2nd line player. I don't think it's realistic to expect him to just play like a 3rd/4th liner every single night.

I think this is true for everyone. I just think that we don't notice it as much with a guy like McDavid because even at his worst, he still looks like a top-line player. Or maybe he has a couple of games at the extreme end that are outside of that range. But when a mediocre player has a bad night, or a series of bad nights, he looks like he shouldn't be in the league so it stands out way more.




Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 pace: 262 GF / 257 GA (+5) after 55 games

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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733198 is a reply to message #733195 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 13:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 13:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:58

Goose wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 12:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 15 March 2019 11:12

Over 82 games, if Kassian had 10+ goals, 25+ pts while being physical, tough, good on the forecheck type of guy, then he's useful to the team and fills a spot. If he's the 4 goal, 8 pt, mostly invisible guy he was in the first 45 games, then you have to get rid of him.

Same goes for Benning. Benning is doing very well right now and looks like a really solid NHLer. You could have him on your team and he'd help you for next season or use him as a piece to bring in a usable forward. But before this, for more than half the season, he looked like a borderline NHLer who from shift to shift looked like he couldn't play.


I think they're both. This is what a 10 goal/20 point player looks like. He scores 8 points in 45 games and is invisible a lot of nights and then goes on a heater and scores 12-15 points in the next 37. Outside of the really elite guys, I think this type of pattern is pretty normal

For a player like Kassian, the points are only part of it. For more than half the season, the only way you knew Kassian played was if you looked at the game sheet and saw his name on it. Way, way too many nights he was completely invisible. If he is here next season, that can't happen.


Ya, I agree that for Kassian points aren't the only part of it. But I think points are a decent proxy for the concept of performance and how that shows up on a nightly basis. Everyone has a range of performance levels. For a guy like Kassian that probably averages out as a lower tier 3rd liner, good 4th liner that means that his performance on any given night is going to range from looking like an AHLer to looking like a decent 2nd line player. I don't think it's realistic to expect him to just play like a 3rd/4th liner every single night.

I think this is true for everyone. I just think that we don't notice it as much with a guy like McDavid because even at his worst, he still looks like a top-line player. Or maybe he has a couple of games at the extreme end that are outside of that range. But when a mediocre player has a bad night, or a series of bad nights, he looks like he shouldn't be in the league so it stands out way more.



What I would love to see with the Oilers is more guys just being more predictable in their yearly performance. Guys are always going to have the odd career year where everything goes perfect but I would love to see more guys just be more consistent. The management has made a ton of dumb mistakes to hurt this team but at the same time, many of the players don't do them any favors. In no way I am making excuses for the stupidity of management but it compounds the problem when you don't have a clue what you are getting out of a player year after year and it has nothing to do with the inability to evaluate players.

I have talked about Benning a few times. It would be really nice for Benning to find a level of consistency where the team knows game after game his strengths and weaknesses. Other than recently, one game he looks like a guy who doesn't have a clue how to defend an NHLer nor can he make a 2 ft pass, the next game it's the complete opposite.

Khaira scored 11 goals last year and looked like a solid bottom 6 guy, this year he has 3. A huge variance. Is he a 10 -15 goal guy or is he a 5 goal guy if you are lucky. No one knows.

Rieder was a lock to give you at least 12 goals and 30 pts while being a speedy, decent PK guy. This year he has no goals and he might not be an NHLer next year.

Kassian wasn't engaged for most of this season, looked like a guy who if the Oilers had more depth, shouldn't be in the line up every night, even talked about wanting a trade. Not sure what happened, flips a switch, completely different guy and it's not just the points, it's his whole game.

Talbot was 4th in vezina 2 seasons ago. Last year and this year, wasn't even capable of putting up decent back up goalie numbers. Yes a better defense would have helped him a bit but a lot of it was just playing poorly on his part. He's gone but he's a good example of the extremes with some of the players.

It would really be nice to see some of these guys get out of the massive peaks and valleys they seem to have with the Oilers. So whoever the next GM is can look at the roster and know that player X will give them this many goals and points or do this for your team and you slot him accordingly. If he happens to outscore that, great but at least you have a minimum you can count on rather than expect 8 goals from a guy and he gives you 2. Lots of teams have those guys who year after year, you know what to expect.

[Updated on: Fri, 15 March 2019 14:00]


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 Re: Edmonton Oilers Playoff Odds [message #733193 is a reply to message #733186 ]
Fri, 15 March 2019 13:16 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
overdue  is currently offline overdue
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They were playing really well under the Hitcock system and then that one fateful game where they lost two of their top four and it was downhill for a long stretch after. You're right, that was probably the difference. It also led to those two panicky moves for D men that are now adorning the press box and taking up cap space.
Quote:

This season was really lost in those 2 months

[Updated on: Fri, 15 March 2019 13:19]


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