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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714184 is a reply to message #714181 ]
Tue, 01 May 2018 13:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jds308  is currently offline jds308
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OilMJMOil wrote on Tue, 01 May 2018 12:36

Maybe I’m in the minority in this, but this is good for the Oilers. Koskinen *should* push Talbot all while tutoring Jesse Puljujarvi in English providing a Finnish mentor for young JP.


I also don't see much downside here. You've now got a 2A and 2B goalie to cover off Talbot. Overall cap hit is reasonable compared to other teams. All 3 goalies are UFA's next summer so if it doesn't work you've got flexibility moving forward.

I will also add that my sentiments are based on the hope that Chia and the gang did their homework on Koskinen and that he "can" actually be a competent back-up. If not, then we're no worse off than last year and Chia will be canned next spring anyway. I know if my job was on the line, I would be pretty damn sure about this.

Last comment on this: Next year won't be won or lost with who the back-up is. Yes, Talbot shouldn't play 65+ games, so having a decent back-up is important. That said, if the team in front of him can't play it won't matter who's in net and the failure of the season won't be solely hung on the goaltending. This is just 1 step in fixing what's broken. Plenty more to do Chia.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714191 is a reply to message #714184 ]
Tue, 01 May 2018 14:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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jds308 wrote on Tue, 01 May 2018 13:51

All 3 goalies are UFA's next summer so if it doesn't work you've got flexibility moving forward.





Specifically to this, I dont know enough about cap management. How does it work if one of them are sent down outside of waivers which I know.
Can we bury the cap hit of AM?

Aside from that I fully expect the team to try and trade Montoya at the draft for anything they can get.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714187 is a reply to message #714181 ]
Tue, 01 May 2018 14:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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OilMJMOil wrote on Tue, 01 May 2018 13:36

Maybe I’m in the minority in this, but this is good for the Oilers. Koskinen *should* push Talbot all while tutoring Jesse Puljujarvi in English providing a Finnish mentor for young JP.


About once a year I post in the speculation forum about a friend of mine who works for the team and shares stories with me. None of it is crazy insider stuff, usually just semi interesting anecdotal type things.

Just last week we were talking JP and he told me that performance wasn't the only reason Jussi Jokinen was traded. Apparently he and JP spent alot of time together and were only speaking Finnish in the locker room, practice, planes, etc and it was stunting the learning of English.
Many in the org think the JP deployment as the year went on was punishment for his part in this.

Doesn't really effect my thoughts on the signing one way or another, your post just reminded me of the story.

Edit for bad spelling

[Updated on: Tue, 01 May 2018 14:11]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714193 is a reply to message #714181 ]
Tue, 01 May 2018 14:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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OilMJMOil wrote on Tue, 01 May 2018 13:36

Maybe I’m in the minority in this, but this is good for the Oilers. Koskinen *should* push Talbot all while tutoring Jesse Puljujarvi in English providing a Finnish mentor for young JP.

All I care about is the Oilers goaltending stopping more pucks next season. The Oilers goaltending did not stop enough pucks last year plain and simple. The Oilers goaltending tandem will have a cap hit of 6.66 mill for next year. Is the Oilers goaltending tandem the cheapest in the league? Nope. Is it expensive? Nope. They need more stops and hopefully this guy can help make that happen.

I am happy about the term but I don't love the signing because I have no clue about the guy. It's a big gamble. I pray it works.

According to Gregor, if Montoya was sent to the minors, he wouldn't count against the cap.

[Updated on: Tue, 01 May 2018 15:00]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714209 is a reply to message #714159 ]
Tue, 01 May 2018 18:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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The very worst part of this very bad signing is that it signals there won't be any effort to extend Cam Talbot this summer. Which means:

a) He returns to career norms and costs you much more to sign when your back is up against the wall next summer.

b) He doesn't, and you are left with no goalies signed for next year, and very little in the system. Fun bonus: Most valuable NHL goalies don't make it to NHL free agency, so you are left chasing cast-offs like Steve Mason.

The Oilers had to take a gamble on their goaltending this off-season, but instead of gambling on a guy (who carried you to undeserved success recently) returning to career norms and having success, they are gambling that their goalie won't and that gamble may result in having no goalies in place for next season. And while I know I'm contradicting myself somewhat - I always talk about how they need to hedge their bets - the message this one sends just feels wrong to me.

Maybe I'm just not sold on the guy they chose to hedge the bet. Because as far as the signing goes... I don't get it.

30-year-old rookies with 4 NHL games rarely suddenly turn a corner. Koskinen has a lot to prove and it getting paid extremely before having done so. $2.5 million is absurdly high for a backup, particularly one that hasn't shown anything at the NHL-level (you could probably justify this on a James Reimer or Jonathan Bernier for example).

I hate that there doesn't seem to be any real concern to bring a young prospect into the lineup. Subban and Pickard were available dirt cheap last year; Pickard still is. Cale Morris just had an absolutely outstanding season at Notre Dame and is a college free agent. THOSE are the guys who you should be looking at signing, guys with an upward trajectory who could conceivably take over the starting job in a few years. There's nothing in the system, Nick Ellis is looking suspect, and for whatever Koskinen is, he's not a young prospect.

Which brings us to Al Montoya. What the heck? A fourth round pick is find to spend on a backup for a couple seasons. The odds of a fourth round pick working out aren't high. But why did they make that trade when they did? Why did they make it if Al Montoya wasn't the long-term plan? Was Montoya so bad that he altered their course, and if so, did the pro scouts not do due diligence? No we have ANOTHER failed NHL (Gryba, Stanton, Montoya) vet taking developmental ice time away from players in Bakersfield. And while I previously had mentioned there isn't much for prospects in the system, my dream is that there will be and that they'll get playing time rather than sitting on the bench watching a buried contract play.

Look, I hope it works out and Koskinen surprises us all and is the next Tim Thomas. I hope Talbot bounces back and we can sign him for cheap. I just don't see much reason to expect that, and I certainly lack faith in the person making those judgement calls.

TL;DR The Oilers overspend on a position that won't see the ice often. They overspend on an unproven 30-year-old rookie. They probably don't extend their starter who previously carried them to success they didn't deserve. And they have no NHL goalie signed beyond next season.

[Updated on: Tue, 01 May 2018 18:58]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714211 is a reply to message #714209 ]
Tue, 01 May 2018 22:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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At least there is no "if you need to ask the question" quote about Talbot from the GM :)


I think Talbot will have a bounce back season. Just hope this 2.5M man can handle 20+ games.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714218 is a reply to message #714209 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 08:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 01 May 2018 18:53

The very worst part of this very bad signing is that it signals there won't be any effort to extend Cam Talbot this summer. Which means:

a) He returns to career norms and costs you much more to sign when your back is up against the wall next summer.

b) He doesn't, and you are left with no goalies signed for next year, and very little in the system. Fun bonus: Most valuable NHL goalies don't make it to NHL free agency, so you are left chasing cast-offs like Steve Mason.

The Oilers had to take a gamble on their goaltending this off-season, but instead of gambling on a guy (who carried you to undeserved success recently) returning to career norms and having success, they are gambling that their goalie won't and that gamble may result in having no goalies in place for next season. And while I know I'm contradicting myself somewhat - I always talk about how they need to hedge their bets - the message this one sends just feels wrong to me.

Maybe I'm just not sold on the guy they chose to hedge the bet. Because as far as the signing goes... I don't get it.

30-year-old rookies with 4 NHL games rarely suddenly turn a corner. Koskinen has a lot to prove and it getting paid extremely before having done so. $2.5 million is absurdly high for a backup, particularly one that hasn't shown anything at the NHL-level (you could probably justify this on a James Reimer or Jonathan Bernier for example).

I hate that there doesn't seem to be any real concern to bring a young prospect into the lineup. Subban and Pickard were available dirt cheap last year; Pickard still is. Cale Morris just had an absolutely outstanding season at Notre Dame and is a college free agent. THOSE are the guys who you should be looking at signing, guys with an upward trajectory who could conceivably take over the starting job in a few years. There's nothing in the system, Nick Ellis is looking suspect, and for whatever Koskinen is, he's not a young prospect.

Which brings us to Al Montoya. What the heck? A fourth round pick is find to spend on a backup for a couple seasons. The odds of a fourth round pick working out aren't high. But why did they make that trade when they did? Why did they make it if Al Montoya wasn't the long-term plan? Was Montoya so bad that he altered their course, and if so, did the pro scouts not do due diligence? No we have ANOTHER failed NHL (Gryba, Stanton, Montoya) vet taking developmental ice time away from players in Bakersfield. And while I previously had mentioned there isn't much for prospects in the system, my dream is that there will be and that they'll get playing time rather than sitting on the bench watching a buried contract play.

Look, I hope it works out and Koskinen surprises us all and is the next Tim Thomas. I hope Talbot bounces back and we can sign him for cheap. I just don't see much reason to expect that, and I certainly lack faith in the person making those judgement calls.

TL;DR The Oilers overspend on a position that won't see the ice often. They overspend on an unproven 30-year-old rookie. They probably don't extend their starter who previously carried them to success they didn't deserve. And they have no NHL goalie signed beyond next season.


I am not going to argue much with your post. I don't hate the signing of Koskinen because they went out and spent some money on a guy they think can give them 20+ starts. I am a Talbot believer, I think he will bounce back this season but even in a season when he was mostly lousy, got hurt for several weeks and missed time due to illness, he was STILL tied for the most games played in the league. I think the days of your starter playing 60+ are gone especially if you are a western conference team with one of the worst travel schedules in the league due to your location. So they need a guy that can give you 20+ decent starts. So to get that guy in my opinion you either have to fluke out and have a young, unproven guy shoot the lights out, they tried that with Brossoit and it blew up in their face. Or you have to pay for a guy. So in my opinion, to get a guy that is capable of 20+ decent games, they are paying 2+ mill easily. What I do not like about the deal is they took a gamble on a unknown. I would have much rather them give this money to a guy with more of an NHL track record. I pray it works out but it's definitely a gamble.

When it comes to Montoya, I am not as worried about him. According to Gregor and Stauffer, if you put Montoya in the minors, his salary is low enough that it won't count against the cap. I assume that is right. Plus right now, they don't have a lot of organizational depth. Brossoit is most likely gone. They brought him in, spent a lot of time and money trying to develop him but he's still not there. When they decided to give him the back up job, I agreed with it at first because he had been developing for years in the AHL, he was the right age and for the most part his AHL numbers were decent and in his limited time in the NHL previously, he looked like he had something. Maybe he figures it out somewhere else, maybe he is KHL bound. Regardless, it's time to move on as I don't see it with him. Something is missing and at 25 with 5 years of minor league play, you might never get it. Ellis looks like a career AHLer. He's only got 2 years of AHL under his belt but he dropped 20 points in save percentage this season in the AHL to be under .900 vs last season. That's concerning. I don't even know if you bring him back as what is his upside? Then they have a few new pros and guys that look far away. So having Montoya in your system for another year to get called up if needed, probably isn't a bad thing. Even with Montoya here for 1 more season, I would hope and I don't see why it would stop them from trying to sign someone else. You mentioned this Cale Morris. I don't pretend to know anything about him but I don't see why you wouldn't.

[Updated on: Wed, 02 May 2018 08:53]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714240 is a reply to message #714159 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 11:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ziltoid  is currently offline ziltoid
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Why do I have a feeling that PC is going to do something really, really stupid this offseason? 2.5MM for an unproven backup when we are already tight against the cap with several holes to fill seems like a prelude to something that will once again leave a bitter taste in our mouths.

Hopefully the guy pans out, though.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714241 is a reply to message #714240 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 11:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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Does Chiarelli understand what a salary cap is and how it works?


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714243 is a reply to message #714241 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 12:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Mike wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 11:17

Does Chiarelli understand what a salary cap is and how it works?


The short answer? No.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714246 is a reply to message #714243 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 12:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
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Adam wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 12:01

Mike wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 11:17

Does Chiarelli understand what a salary cap is and how it works?


The short answer? No.


uh not sure how the cap is going to be a problem. The complete roster of whoever was playing at Boston college is going to sign here for cheap. Many are likely signed already, just waiting on Pete's desk for late August when he gets back from the cabin.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714253 is a reply to message #714241 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 17:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Mike wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 10:17

Does Chiarelli understand what a salary cap is and how it works?


I think it means someone with cap is going out...

Russell, Lucic, Sekera NM contracts have really eliminated the chance to upgrade this roster, and for a few years more. No room for good UFAs, just able to make small moves along the margins.

Our GM will likely want to trade out Kassian, who IMHO is an ingredient of great value, he is a deterrent that has high end speed and skill, that actually enjoys mixing it up, protects his teammates without the need for encouragement, the type of guy the Oilers have tried to find for years. This is another one of the thousand cuts that will hurt this team long term.

They also let Slepy go without getting any compensation because they couldn't properly develop him, but that just sums up their prospect development in general.

I know Chiarelli is cooking something up, and I'm cringing.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714250 is a reply to message #714159 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 17:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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Quote:

@JonathanWillis

Today's COL/Francouz contract really doesn't reflect well on Edmonton.
For $690K, COL got a goalie with a 0.946 KHL SV% (15 points better than his backup).
For $2.5MM, EDM got a goalie with a 0.931 KHL SV% (two points worse than his partner).


Chiarelli is not good a negotiations.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714251 is a reply to message #714250 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 17:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 17:17

Quote:

@JonathanWillis

Today's COL/Francouz contract really doesn't reflect well on Edmonton.
For $690K, COL got a goalie with a 0.946 KHL SV% (15 points better than his backup).
For $2.5MM, EDM got a goalie with a 0.931 KHL SV% (two points worse than his partner).


Chiarelli is not good a negotiations.


Three years younger and a longer track record of better results while playing with a lesser team - Chelyabinsk Traktor went 33-19-2-2 this year, while SKA St. Petersburg went 47-5-3-1.

I suspect the only number the Oilers saw was 6'7 to 5'11. We just paid our guy $226,250 per extra inch.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714252 is a reply to message #714250 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 17:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 17:17

Quote:

@JonathanWillis

Today's COL/Francouz contract really doesn't reflect well on Edmonton.
For $690K, COL got a goalie with a 0.946 KHL SV% (15 points better than his backup).
For $2.5MM, EDM got a goalie with a 0.931 KHL SV% (two points worse than his partner).


Chiarelli is not good a negotiations.


Oilers theme song




"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714254 is a reply to message #714250 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 18:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 20:17

Quote:

@JonathanWillis

Today's COL/Francouz contract really doesn't reflect well on Edmonton.
For $690K, COL got a goalie with a 0.946 KHL SV% (15 points better than his backup).
For $2.5MM, EDM got a goalie with a 0.931 KHL SV% (two points worse than his partner).


Chiarelli is not good a negotiations.


Yeah - so this right here absolutely hammers home the points we've all been making. Sledgehammers it home.

$2.5m if it's some kid lighting up the KHL - like 25 years old and best numbers in the league type? OK, maybe. But a 30 year old middle of the pack guy? Ludicrous. Almost as crazy as paying a 4th for a mediocre backup once the season was over.

Seriously - if the agreed upon salary is $2.5M, what the hell was the ask? Same question for Russell and Draisaitl. I'm guessing he negotiates against himself. It's the only plausible explanation I can come up with.

[Updated on: Wed, 02 May 2018 19:55]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714258 is a reply to message #714254 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 21:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Mike wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 18:25

mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 20:17

Quote:

@JonathanWillis

Today's COL/Francouz contract really doesn't reflect well on Edmonton.
For $690K, COL got a goalie with a 0.946 KHL SV% (15 points better than his backup).
For $2.5MM, EDM got a goalie with a 0.931 KHL SV% (two points worse than his partner).


Chiarelli is not good a negotiations.


Yeah - so this right here absolutely hammers home the points we've all been making. Sledgehammers it home.

$2.5m if it's some kid lighting up the KHL - like 25 years old and best numbers in the league type? OK, maybe. But a 30 year old middle of the pack guy? Ludicrous. Almost as crazy as paying a 4th for a mediocre backup once the season was over.

Seriously - if the agreed upon salary is $2.5M, what the hell was the ask? Same question for Russell and Draisaitl. I'm guessing he negotiates against himself. It's the only plausible explanation I can come up with.

If the ask was 5 million over two years, would you be surprised?



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714259 is a reply to message #714159 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 21:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilMJMOil  is currently offline OilMJMOil
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So general consensus is Chia failed... again. I know I had said earlier this is good for the Oilers, but I'm finding myself on the other side. Conformist, I know. The combined salary for Talbot and Koskinen as a whole isn't terrible, let's be honest. But individually! 2.5M is absolutely crazy to spend on Koskinen. If the plan is to extend Talbot, going in to negotiations knowing Chia spent 2.5M on his BACKUP (who's stats/profile to date is...marginal at best) is going to inflate the demand for Talbot to remain.

If this signing leads to the end of Kassian as an Oiler... this Tier 2 fan will be very unimpressed.

I hope he (Koskinen) proves us wrong...



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714260 is a reply to message #714259 ]
Wed, 02 May 2018 21:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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OilMJMOil wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 21:32

So general consensus is Chia failed... again. I know I had said earlier this is good for the Oilers, but I'm finding myself on the other side. Conformist, I know. The combined salary for Talbot and Koskinen as a whole isn't terrible, let's be honest. But individually! 2.5M is absolutely crazy to spend on Koskinen. If the plan is to extend Talbot, going in to negotiations knowing Chia spent 2.5M on his BACKUP (who's stats/profile to date is...marginal at best) is going to inflate the demand for Talbot to remain.

If this signing leads to the end of Kassian as an Oiler... this Tier 2 fan will be very unimpressed.

I hope he (Koskinen) proves us wrong...



Maybe Chia thinks that the phrase "you get what you pay for" works based only on what you pay.



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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714263 is a reply to message #714259 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 00:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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OilMJMOil wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 21:32

So general consensus is Chia failed... again. I know I had said earlier this is good for the Oilers, but I'm finding myself on the other side. Conformist, I know. The combined salary for Talbot and Koskinen as a whole isn't terrible, let's be honest. But individually! 2.5M is absolutely crazy to spend on Koskinen. If the plan is to extend Talbot, going in to negotiations knowing Chia spent 2.5M on his BACKUP (who's stats/profile to date is...marginal at best) is going to inflate the demand for Talbot to remain.

If this signing leads to the end of Kassian as an Oiler... this Tier 2 fan will be very unimpressed.

I hope he (Koskinen) proves us wrong...


Even Mark Spector and Ryan Rishaug, the waterboys themselves have been critical of this one.

It's okay though...David Staples has decided that bad Oilers fans are just cheering for the GMs moves to fail now. As if it weren't painful for us every time we're right...as if being a fan means turning off rational thought and supporting blindly the stupid things management does that keeps us from ever watching a successful team.

Good fans should be upset, and they should be vocal about this. We've got a group that has run this team in to the ground again and again and again. We should be demanding change...and not in the form of ultra expensive mediocre backup goalies, and assistant coaches moved to coach the farm team.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714269 is a reply to message #714259 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 08:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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OilMJMOil wrote on Wed, 02 May 2018 21:32

So general consensus is Chia failed... again. I know I had said earlier this is good for the Oilers, but I'm finding myself on the other side. Conformist, I know. The combined salary for Talbot and Koskinen as a whole isn't terrible, let's be honest. But individually! 2.5M is absolutely crazy to spend on Koskinen. If the plan is to extend Talbot, going in to negotiations knowing Chia spent 2.5M on his BACKUP (who's stats/profile to date is...marginal at best) is going to inflate the demand for Talbot to remain.

If this signing leads to the end of Kassian as an Oiler... this Tier 2 fan will be very unimpressed.

I hope he (Koskinen) proves us wrong...


On the surface, 2.5 mill for an unknown seems a bit high. I am sure I will take more heat like usual but before I grab my pitch fork like everyone else is doing, I'd like to see the guy actually play first. I look at the Oilers in the 16-17 season and the 17-18 season and a lot of it came down to goaltending. The Oilers got good goaltending in 16-17 from basically game one, they cruised. They got crap goaltending from game 2 in the 17-18 season, they crashed and burned. I know that taking a wait and see approach and not instantly hating everything about it is kind of not allowed in here but if he and Talbot can lead the Oilers back to where they should be, then the signing will be fine. I really hope it works out but it's definitely a big time gamble that Chia better get right. So far most of his gambles haven't panned out.

When it comes to Kassian, I am a fan of his because he is big, tough, physical, plays with an edge, has speed and has some skill. I think he has the tools to be an effective 3rd liner. When the Oilers signed him, I think they felt the same. The problem is that he played like a 4th liner last season and at no time did he look capable of moving up. If he is a 3rd liner, then his 1.95 mill isn't too bad. If he is a 4th liner, he's making WAY, WAY too much money.

[Updated on: Thu, 03 May 2018 08:28]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714273 is a reply to message #714269 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 10:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 08:26


On the surface, 2.5 mill for an unknown seems a bit high. I am sure I will take more heat like usual but before I grab my pitch fork like everyone else is doing, I'd like to see the guy actually play first. I look at the Oilers in the 16-17 season and the 17-18 season and a lot of it came down to goaltending. The Oilers got good goaltending in 16-17 from basically game one, they cruised. They got crap goaltending from game 2 in the 17-18 season, they crashed and burned. I know that taking a wait and see approach and not instantly hating everything about it is kind of not allowed in here but if he and Talbot can lead the Oilers back to where they should be, then the signing will be fine. I really hope it works out but it's definitely a big time gamble that Chia better get right. So far most of his gambles haven't panned out.

When it comes to Kassian, I am a fan of his because he is big, tough, physical, plays with an edge, has speed and has some skill. I think he has the tools to be an effective 3rd liner. When the Oilers signed him, I think they felt the same. The problem is that he played like a 4th liner last season and at no time did he look capable of moving up. If he is a 3rd liner, then his 1.95 mill isn't too bad. If he is a 4th liner, he's making WAY, WAY too much money.


Since he's arrived here, Chiarelli's made four gamble on back-up goalie:

1) Anders Nilsson - 25 years old, coming off a KHL season where he had a .936 average, but he'd been mediocre prior to that in the NHL in 23 games with the Islanders. Oilers signed him to a one year, $1MM contract. He went 10-12-2 with the Oilers with a .901 save percentage. Miraculously, the Sabres traded us a pick for him even with those numbers.

2) Jonas Gustavsson - 31 years old, coming off a year with the Bruins where he had a .908 save percentage. That was his second best save percentage in his entire NHL career...but the Oilers thought he could be the answer behind Talbot and gave him a one-year $800K contract. He was not the answer. He appeared in only 7 games with the Oilers going 1-3-1 with a 0.878 save percentage, ending his NHL career.

3) Laurent Brossoit - Signed his contract about the same time as Gustavsson. Despite some spotty AHL numbers, the Oilers gave him a two year, one-way deal, paying him $650K in year one to play 21 AHL games and make 8 NHL appearances. Last summer, they had to decide whether they needed a back-up or whether he was the guy, and they decided his NHL numbers from the year before (4-1-0, 0.928, 1.99) were more representative than his AHL numbers (9-8-0, 0.908, 2.67). That was a mistake. The NHL numbers were a small sample size, and he really wasn't that good. The second year of his deal gave him $850K to help tank the Oilers chances of playoffs when Talbot got hurt. He went 3-7-1 with a 0.883 save percentage to take his career save percentage in the NHL to 0.897. He won't get a qualifying offer this summer.

4) Al Montoya - Unlike all the other gambles on backup goalies that Chia's made, this one cost us an asset to acquire as he frivolously threw away a fourth round pick, despite the fact it was clear we were out of the playoffs. If he was the backup for next year, it might have made a little sense, as he was already under contract for next year with a 1.0625MM cap hit. He had a long spotty history in the NHL - appearing in 159 games over nine seasons with five different teams. Unlike some of the others above, he never excelled in the lower leagues either. Hi sbest AHL save percentage ever was 0.914. When we acquired him from Montreal, he'd seen limited action, and gotten shelled in what ice time he had seen - 14 goals against in 4 appearances. 2-1-0 with an 0.863 save percentage and a 3.77 GAA.

He saw 9 appearances for the Oilers - 4 more than needed to upgrade that pick from a 5th to a 4th. He went 2-2-2 with a .906 save percentage. You could call that disappointing, but his career average is .908, so we pretty much got exactly what we should have expected. Despite surrendering a pick AND upgrading what we surrendered (and despite the fact the Oilers were dead in the water before they spent an asset on an extra mediocre back-up) the Oilers are apparently fine with burying this player in the minors next year, and having him as an expensive 3rd goalie.

Given that track record, with four pretty spectacular flameouts in three seasons, it's hard to give Chiarelli the benefit of the doubt on this. He's failed to identify talent, and he's cost us games by putting his faith in these below average players again and again.

Koskinen is relatively old, has had mediocre NHL AND AHL numbers in the past, played for a stacked team in a low-scoring league and posted middle of the road numbers, AND Chia has paid him like a low end starting netminder or a top of the line back-up. There's an awful lot of red flags here, so you'll excuse me if I don't start by giving the Oilers management the benefit of the doubt here.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714275 is a reply to message #714273 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 10:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 10:00

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 08:26


On the surface, 2.5 mill for an unknown seems a bit high. I am sure I will take more heat like usual but before I grab my pitch fork like everyone else is doing, I'd like to see the guy actually play first. I look at the Oilers in the 16-17 season and the 17-18 season and a lot of it came down to goaltending. The Oilers got good goaltending in 16-17 from basically game one, they cruised. They got crap goaltending from game 2 in the 17-18 season, they crashed and burned. I know that taking a wait and see approach and not instantly hating everything about it is kind of not allowed in here but if he and Talbot can lead the Oilers back to where they should be, then the signing will be fine. I really hope it works out but it's definitely a big time gamble that Chia better get right. So far most of his gambles haven't panned out.

When it comes to Kassian, I am a fan of his because he is big, tough, physical, plays with an edge, has speed and has some skill. I think he has the tools to be an effective 3rd liner. When the Oilers signed him, I think they felt the same. The problem is that he played like a 4th liner last season and at no time did he look capable of moving up. If he is a 3rd liner, then his 1.95 mill isn't too bad. If he is a 4th liner, he's making WAY, WAY too much money.


Since he's arrived here, Chiarelli's made four gamble on back-up goalie:

1) Anders Nilsson - 25 years old, coming off a KHL season where he had a .936 average, but he'd been mediocre prior to that in the NHL in 23 games with the Islanders. Oilers signed him to a one year, $1MM contract. He went 10-12-2 with the Oilers with a .901 save percentage. Miraculously, the Sabres traded us a pick for him even with those numbers.

2) Jonas Gustavsson - 31 years old, coming off a year with the Bruins where he had a .908 save percentage. That was his second best save percentage in his entire NHL career...but the Oilers thought he could be the answer behind Talbot and gave him a one-year $800K contract. He was not the answer. He appeared in only 7 games with the Oilers going 1-3-1 with a 0.878 save percentage, ending his NHL career.

3) Laurent Brossoit - Signed his contract about the same time as Gustavsson. Despite some spotty AHL numbers, the Oilers gave him a two year, one-way deal, paying him $650K in year one to play 21 AHL games and make 8 NHL appearances. Last summer, they had to decide whether they needed a back-up or whether he was the guy, and they decided his NHL numbers from the year before (4-1-0, 0.928, 1.99) were more representative than his AHL numbers (9-8-0, 0.908, 2.67). That was a mistake. The NHL numbers were a small sample size, and he really wasn't that good. The second year of his deal gave him $850K to help tank the Oilers chances of playoffs when Talbot got hurt. He went 3-7-1 with a 0.883 save percentage to take his career save percentage in the NHL to 0.897. He won't get a qualifying offer this summer.

4) Al Montoya - Unlike all the other gambles on backup goalies that Chia's made, this one cost us an asset to acquire as he frivolously threw away a fourth round pick, despite the fact it was clear we were out of the playoffs. If he was the backup for next year, it might have made a little sense, as he was already under contract for next year with a 1.0625MM cap hit. He had a long spotty history in the NHL - appearing in 159 games over nine seasons with five different teams. Unlike some of the others above, he never excelled in the lower leagues either. Hi sbest AHL save percentage ever was 0.914. When we acquired him from Montreal, he'd seen limited action, and gotten shelled in what ice time he had seen - 14 goals against in 4 appearances. 2-1-0 with an 0.863 save percentage and a 3.77 GAA.

He saw 9 appearances for the Oilers - 4 more than needed to upgrade that pick from a 5th to a 4th. He went 2-2-2 with a .906 save percentage. You could call that disappointing, but his career average is .908, so we pretty much got exactly what we should have expected. Despite surrendering a pick AND upgrading what we surrendered (and despite the fact the Oilers were dead in the water before they spent an asset on an extra mediocre back-up) the Oilers are apparently fine with burying this player in the minors next year, and having him as an expensive 3rd goalie.

Given that track record, with four pretty spectacular flameouts in three seasons, it's hard to give Chiarelli the benefit of the doubt on this. He's failed to identify talent, and he's cost us games by putting his faith in these below average players again and again.

Koskinen is relatively old, has had mediocre NHL AND AHL numbers in the past, played for a stacked team in a low-scoring league and posted middle of the road numbers, AND Chia has paid him like a low end starting netminder or a top of the line back-up. There's an awful lot of red flags here, so you'll excuse me if I don't start by giving the Oilers management the benefit of the doubt here.

If you want to be completely against the signing, go for it. You are entitled to do that because as of right now the management hasn't given fans much to be confident about. Totally fair. At the same time, I also think it's fair that it's not wrong to allow some people to actually see the guy play a bit before they decide he is terrible.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714276 is a reply to message #714275 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 10:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 10:17


If you want to be completely against the signing, go for it. You are entitled to do that because as of right now the management hasn't given fans much to be confident about. Totally fair. At the same time, I also think it's fair that it's not wrong to allow some people to actually see the guy play a bit before they decide he is terrible.


I don't think anyone has said he's terrible, just that it's a bad use of cap space to spend $2.5MM on a goalie who has 4 games of NHL experience (and struggled in those games). The Oilers have paid him as if he's going to be a 30+ game goalie next year with solid stats in those games. It's not a great bet.

Basically, Chia bet big on a long shot...again. If he shows up all his critics, that's great, but it's an alarming trend to see your GM repeatedly making high risk moves, especially when his track record on them paying off is really, really bad.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714277 is a reply to message #714276 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 10:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 10:33

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 10:17


If you want to be completely against the signing, go for it. You are entitled to do that because as of right now the management hasn't given fans much to be confident about. Totally fair. At the same time, I also think it's fair that it's not wrong to allow some people to actually see the guy play a bit before they decide he is terrible.


I don't think anyone has said he's terrible, just that it's a bad use of cap space to spend $2.5MM on a goalie who has 4 games of NHL experience (and struggled in those games). The Oilers have paid him as if he's going to be a 30+ game goalie next year with solid stats in those games. It's not a great bet.

Basically, Chia bet big on a long shot...again. If he shows up all his critics, that's great, but it's an alarming trend to see your GM repeatedly making high risk moves, especially when his track record on them paying off is really, really bad.

I have said multiple times its a big gamble and it better pay off. I have even said I don't think I would have made this gamble personally on this guy. If you are going to spend this money on a goalie, I would have went after a guy with more of an NHL track record. But at the same time, I am not prepared to say its a terrible signing in May, when he hasn't even played a single game yet based on stats from 2010-2011. You are right, back in 2010-2011 in his 4 games, he wasn't very good. But does that mean what he did 7 yrs ago automatically means he can't play in the NHL now? If you are of the opinion that it is impossible for a player to ever improve or change his game to succeed, then I guess so but I do not believe that. I would like to see him play first before I decide it's a terrible signing.

If he can come in and play 20-25 decent games and allow Talbot to play 60 or less games and that results in the Oilers having really good goaltending which in my opinion, successful teams need to have to win, then it is fine. If he is Brossoit 2.0, then its a horrible signing. But he actually has to play first for anyone to know.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714278 is a reply to message #714275 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 10:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 09:17


If you want to be completely against the signing, go for it. You are entitled to do that because as of right now the management hasn't given fans much to be confident about. Totally fair. At the same time, I also think it's fair that it's not wrong to allow some people to actually see the guy play a bit before they decide he is terrible.


It's not even that he's terrible, although I don't think that there's a ton to be optimistic about. But the cap hit is awful, especially given that Colorado just signed a guy who is younger, and with better stats to a quarter of the price the Oilers paid for Koskinen.

@WheatNOil posted about this on twitter, but it seems like the Oilers consistently identify a guy that they want and then pay whatever price is necessary to get that guy.

Quote:

The thing with the Oilers under Chiarelli is that they seem to pick their target & pay whatever price needed to get said target. See Koskinen, Larsson, Reinhart, Russell's extension, etc. It's less about relative value & more about 'getting their guy'.


https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/991819474746535936

I would also add Lucic to the list above, and on the flip side once they identified that Eberle and Pouliot had to go, they were willing to accept/pay any price just to make that happen.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714281 is a reply to message #714278 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 11:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 10:49

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 09:17


If you want to be completely against the signing, go for it. You are entitled to do that because as of right now the management hasn't given fans much to be confident about. Totally fair. At the same time, I also think it's fair that it's not wrong to allow some people to actually see the guy play a bit before they decide he is terrible.


It's not even that he's terrible, although I don't think that there's a ton to be optimistic about. But the cap hit is awful, especially given that Colorado just signed a guy who is younger, and with better stats to a quarter of the price the Oilers paid for Koskinen.

@WheatNOil posted about this on twitter, but it seems like the Oilers consistently identify a guy that they want and then pay whatever price is necessary to get that guy.

Quote:

The thing with the Oilers under Chiarelli is that they seem to pick their target & pay whatever price needed to get said target. See Koskinen, Larsson, Reinhart, Russell's extension, etc. It's less about relative value & more about 'getting their guy'.


https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/991819474746535936

I would also add Lucic to the list above, and on the flip side once they identified that Eberle and Pouliot had to go, they were willing to accept/pay any price just to make that happen.


I have never once said it was a good signing. I have said multiple times its a big gamble that I would not have made because he's an unknown. I was surprised the money was that high. Supposedly other teams were after him so I am guessing that is what it took to get him. Thankfully it's only for 1 season. I believe that one of the biggest downfalls of the Oilers this season was sub par goaltending. When I look at the teams in the playoffs, both who are still in it and who are out, other than the Flyers, they all got really good goaltending. I look at the teams in the Oilers division, Vegas has Fleury, Kings have Quick, Ducks have Gibson, Sharks have Jones. So all of them have really good goalies. If Koskinen comes in, plays well, takes some games away from Talbot which I think is sorely needed, provides some pressure on Talbot so he is better and as a whole, helps make it so the Oilers have a real good 1-2 punch in goal, then I can live with it. Right now I am a little skeptical and I am praying it works out. But I'd like to see the guy play first before I decide it won't.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714290 is a reply to message #714281 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 12:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 11:05

I am praying it works out.


So are the Oilers.

I think the difference between your opinion and pretty much everyone here, the media, the rest of the league etc is that as usual with the Oilers a LOT has to go right for this to pan out and be a good signing.
- Talbot has to be better
- Koskinen has to be one of the best backups in the league for 20+ games
- the Oilers don't have a use for the extra cap space
- there was no other comparable option at backup for less money.

If any of those things don't come true all it will be is another move that the Oilers admit is a mistake when 99% of people outside of the management team saw coming a mile away.

For once I would like to see the team hedge there bets on on a more of sure thing then to hope "and pray" that things work out.

The hope and pray method is a big part of last seasons overall failure. They bet on a lot of things working out as a best case scenario.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714293 is a reply to message #714290 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 12:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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That's the other thing - if he comes in and even meets expectations (ie decent numbers, over .500/+.910%), then what? We give him $5M?

At $2.5M he is the 37th highest paid goaltender in the NHL. A guy who, by all objective measures that I can see, is much better just signed for about a quarter of what we signed Koskinen for. Even if they were exactly the same age and same stats that would be crazy - even crazier is that they are not. crazy



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714294 is a reply to message #714281 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 13:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 10:05


I have never once said it was a good signing. I have said multiple times its a big gamble that I would not have made because he's an unknown. I was surprised the money was that high. Supposedly other teams were after him so I am guessing that is what it took to get him. Thankfully it's only for 1 season. I believe that one of the biggest downfalls of the Oilers this season was sub par goaltending. When I look at the teams in the playoffs, both who are still in it and who are out, other than the Flyers, they all got really good goaltending. I look at the teams in the Oilers division, Vegas has Fleury, Kings have Quick, Ducks have Gibson, Sharks have Jones. So all of them have really good goalies. If Koskinen comes in, plays well, takes some games away from Talbot which I think is sorely needed, provides some pressure on Talbot so he is better and as a whole, helps make it so the Oilers have a real good 1-2 punch in goal, then I can live with it. Right now I am a little skeptical and I am praying it works out. But I'd like to see the guy play first before I decide it won't.


Ya sorry, I wasn't trying to say that I thought you think this is a good signing.

My point in more just that almost regardless of how this turns out, I think it's a bad bet.

At that money, Koskinen basically has to come in and be a top-3 backup and allow Talbot to play less than 60 games with minimal dropoff in effectiveness. What's the probability that actually happens. I would put it at less than 50%. And whatever his performance level, you still have to ask the question, could the Oilers have gotten that performance at less money?

And it might work out, I agree with you that we won't know until we see what happens in the season. But I think, based on what we know today, it's totally fair to say that this is a bad bet. The most unfortunate part is that this looks to be part of a pattern with this management group.




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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714296 is a reply to message #714294 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 13:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714297 is a reply to message #714296 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 13:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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I'd be really interested to look back in a while and see what all these guys end up signing for.


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714300 is a reply to message #714296 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 13:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:13

Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.


I know you think I just come after you but I am totally asking a serious question.
Why are you so against the 15 guys who need contracts yet willing to give this one a chance? Many of them have better NHL numbers than Koskinen has in the KHL.

Forget the ones that will get more than 2mill

As said below;
CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:22

I'd be really interested to look back in a while and see what all these guys end up signing for.


I think it is safe to say there will be a LOT of tenders who sign at 1.25 mill or less (IE half of this signing). There are only 46 goalies in the entire league that make that or more.
You are willing to say no to all of them why? Again, serious question. I am truly curious why you will take a wait and see attitude with this.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714307 is a reply to message #714300 ]
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PlusOne wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:53

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:13

Part of the problem and this isn't me trying to justify the signing is I don't see anyone of the NHL free agents both UFA and RFA that I am confident in or they could get.

I don't want Lehtonen, Halak, Ward, Lack, Johnson, Pavelec, all UFA's. Lehner is an RFA, I am not a fan of his and I thin he gets a least 2.5 mill, he was making 4 mill last year. Mrazek is an RFa and was crappy. Bernier was making 2.75 mill. He was decent so I think he gets at least what he made last year or more. Helleuyck obviously is Winnipegs guy. Grubeauer was making 1.5 ill, have an excellent year and I see a team like Buffalo maybe trying to get him. Regardless he's making more than 2.5 mill. Hutton for the Blues was outstanding and will get WAY more than 2.5 mill. Hammond no thanks. Hutchinson hasn't been in the league in a few years. Khudobin was ok for Boston but do they let him go?

I just listed the first 15 goalies listed needing a contract and the only 2 I would like is Grubauer and Hutton and they might be in line for some starters jobs but at the very least probably get more than 2.5 mill.


I know you think I just come after you but I am totally asking a serious question.
Why are you so against the 15 guys who need contracts yet willing to give this one a chance? Many of them have better NHL numbers than Koskinen has in the KHL.

Forget the ones that will get more than 2mill

As said below;
CrudeRemarks wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 13:22

I'd be really interested to look back in a while and see what all these guys end up signing for.


I think it is safe to say there will be a LOT of tenders who sign at 1.25 mill or less (IE half of this signing). There are only 46 goalies in the entire league that make that or more.
You are willing to say no to all of them why? Again, serious question. I am truly curious why you will take a wait and see attitude with this.


I don't think most of the guys I listed are good enough NHL goalies. Everyone agrees Talbot and the .908 he ended up with wasn't good enough. So why would I want to bring in another guy with similar or worse numbers?
Lehtonen in a reduced role had a .912 this past year. The previous years he was .902, .906, .903. He will be 35 in November. I am not confident that a 35 yr old goalie will put up .910 or better numbers, I think he will put up numbers similar to what he did the previous years which isn't good enough.

Halak put up .908 this past season. When I look at his numbers, his numbers are decent. However, I personally have never been a fan of him. He lost his job to Griess who's not that good either, spent half of last season in the minors last year so there had to be a reason. Goaltending was the main reason the Isles didn't make the playoffs. By today's standards he's really small. Why would I want to bring in a goalie who's small by today's standards and not that great?

Ward was .906 this season. He was .905, .909, .910, .898, .908. Other than he grew up in Sherwood Park, I see nothing appealing about him.

Lack this season when he was with Calgary was .813, spent time in the minors, went to New Jersey where he was .903. Then previously he was ,.902, .901. Those are brutal numbers.

Johnson was .891 in Buffalo and ,.910 the previous year. Not good enough.

Pavelec was .910 this past season. Then he was .888 and spent most of the year in the minors as a Jet. Then .904. Jumped to .920, then was .901, .905, .906. Not good enough.

There is just a few of them. Mzazek has been bad for several years now. Maybe I think about Lehner but I think he gets more money than what they paid Koskinen. But maybe he would have been a guy to role the dice on IF you could even get him.

I am going to get out of this debate because it is looking like I am saying this is a good signing because like I said multiple times, I don't. I am not trashing the signing like some because I have never seen the guy play. I think he played in a World Championship game 2 years ago when McDavid was there and was really good in the championship game but that is the extent of me seeing him in action. 1 game. I would like to see him play a bit before I pass my final judgement on him. But it's a massive gamble which I am not a fan of. Chia took some gambles this past season and none of them worked. I heard him interviewed yesterday on Stauffer's show and he said he knows he needs to prove he can play in the NHL. I liked hearing that because I hope it means he's not coming in all cocky thinking his KHL numbers mean anything because they don't and I hope it means we will see a very motivated guy with a chip on his shoulder. But until he plays, we won't know. I just hope like hell it works because 2.5 mill is a hell of a lot of money to waste on a flop.

[Updated on: Thu, 03 May 2018 15:08]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714308 is a reply to message #714307 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 15:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Fair points but I have a couple questions


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



I don't think the guys I listed are good enough NHL goalies. Everyone agrees Talbot and the .908 he ended up with wasn't good enough. So why would I want to bring in another guy with similar or worse numbers?



If we are signing a guy for one year who is a clear back up his numebrs don't have to be better than what we expect from Talbot, just decent backup number

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



Lehtonen in a reduced role had a .912 this past year. The previous years he was .902, .906, .903. He will be 35 in November. I am not confident that a 35 yr old goalie will put up .910 or better numbers, I think he will put up numbers similar to what he did the previous years which isn't good enough.

Halak put up .908 this past season. When I look at his numbers, his numbers are decent. However, I personally have never been a fan of him. He lost his job to Griess who's not that good either, spent half of last season in the minors last year so there had to be a reason. Goaltending was the main reason the Isles didn't make the playoffs. By today's standards he's really small. Why would I want to bring in a goalie who's small by today's standards and not that great?

Ward was .906 this season. He was .905, .909, .910, .898, .908. Other than he grew up in Sherwood Park, I see nothing appealing about him.

Lack this season when he was with Calgary was .813, spent time in the minors, went to New Jersey where he was .903. Then previously he was ,.902, .901. Those are brutal numbers.

Johnson was .891 in Buffalo and ,.910 the previous year. Not good enough.

Pavelec was .910 this past season. Then he was .888 and spent most of the year in the minors as a Jet. Then .904. Jumped to .920, then was .901, .905, .906. Not good enough.

There is just a few of them. Mzazek has been bad for several years now. Maybe I think about Lehner but I think he gets more money than what they paid Koskinen. But maybe he would have been a guy to role the dice on IF you could even get him.


You are using .910 as a benchmark. From a lot of people that is seen as line in the sand for an starting goalie. Of goalies with more than 10GP there were 39 in the league last season that achieved at so it seems fine to use.

Take the names, bias on size, personal, or a seemingly arbitrary accusation of bad, most of the guys you list fall in that .910 acceptable range.

By your own numbers you have listed a number of guys that fall in the .900-.910 category and listed not good enough a few times.

Just so I am clear and if I am we can agree to disagree.
You are not happy with the signing but are ok with hoping and praying(your words) that Koskinen is substantially better that one of the options the Oilers could have gone after, likely for a lower price?
Does that sum up your opinion on the signing?




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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714309 is a reply to message #714308 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 15:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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PlusOne wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:16

Fair points but I have a couple questions


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



I don't think the guys I listed are good enough NHL goalies. Everyone agrees Talbot and the .908 he ended up with wasn't good enough. So why would I want to bring in another guy with similar or worse numbers?



If we are signing a guy for one year who is a clear back up his numebrs don't have to be better than what we expect from Talbot, just decent backup number

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



Lehtonen in a reduced role had a .912 this past year. The previous years he was .902, .906, .903. He will be 35 in November. I am not confident that a 35 yr old goalie will put up .910 or better numbers, I think he will put up numbers similar to what he did the previous years which isn't good enough.

Halak put up .908 this past season. When I look at his numbers, his numbers are decent. However, I personally have never been a fan of him. He lost his job to Griess who's not that good either, spent half of last season in the minors last year so there had to be a reason. Goaltending was the main reason the Isles didn't make the playoffs. By today's standards he's really small. Why would I want to bring in a goalie who's small by today's standards and not that great?

Ward was .906 this season. He was .905, .909, .910, .898, .908. Other than he grew up in Sherwood Park, I see nothing appealing about him.

Lack this season when he was with Calgary was .813, spent time in the minors, went to New Jersey where he was .903. Then previously he was ,.902, .901. Those are brutal numbers.

Johnson was .891 in Buffalo and ,.910 the previous year. Not good enough.

Pavelec was .910 this past season. Then he was .888 and spent most of the year in the minors as a Jet. Then .904. Jumped to .920, then was .901, .905, .906. Not good enough.

There is just a few of them. Mzazek has been bad for several years now. Maybe I think about Lehner but I think he gets more money than what they paid Koskinen. But maybe he would have been a guy to role the dice on IF you could even get him.


You are using .910 as a benchmark. From a lot of people that is seen as line in the sand for an starting goalie. Of goalies with more than 10GP there were 39 in the league last season that achieved at so it seems fine to use.

Take the names, bias on size, personal, or a seemingly arbitrary accusation of bad, most of the guys you list fall in that .910 acceptable range.

By your own numbers you have listed a number of guys that fall in the .900-.910 category and listed not good enough a few times.

Just so I am clear and if I am we can agree to disagree.
You are not happy with the signing but are ok with hoping and praying(your words) that Koskinen is substantially better that one of the options the Oilers could have gone after, likely for a lower price?
Does that sum up your opinion on the signing?




I am done debating with you. I stupidly broke my own rule and responded to one of your posts and I have done it more than once. Definitely a mistake on my part. I don't know how many times I can say that I don't like the signing. I said the money was a bit high for my tastes. I said I really dislike gambling on a guy that is a complete unknown and that I would not have done it. The only thing remotely positive I have said is its a 1 yr deal and I really hope it works out. Hockey is my favorite sport to play and watch. The Oilers are my team, I have been a fan my entire life. I want my team to win so that is why I hope it works out because if it doesn't, it hurts my team. I don't know what else you want me to say.

Have a nice day.



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714310 is a reply to message #714309 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 15:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:33

PlusOne wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:16

Fair points but I have a couple questions


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



I don't think the guys I listed are good enough NHL goalies. Everyone agrees Talbot and the .908 he ended up with wasn't good enough. So why would I want to bring in another guy with similar or worse numbers?



If we are signing a guy for one year who is a clear back up his numebrs don't have to be better than what we expect from Talbot, just decent backup number

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



Lehtonen in a reduced role had a .912 this past year. The previous years he was .902, .906, .903. He will be 35 in November. I am not confident that a 35 yr old goalie will put up .910 or better numbers, I think he will put up numbers similar to what he did the previous years which isn't good enough.

Halak put up .908 this past season. When I look at his numbers, his numbers are decent. However, I personally have never been a fan of him. He lost his job to Griess who's not that good either, spent half of last season in the minors last year so there had to be a reason. Goaltending was the main reason the Isles didn't make the playoffs. By today's standards he's really small. Why would I want to bring in a goalie who's small by today's standards and not that great?

Ward was .906 this season. He was .905, .909, .910, .898, .908. Other than he grew up in Sherwood Park, I see nothing appealing about him.

Lack this season when he was with Calgary was .813, spent time in the minors, went to New Jersey where he was .903. Then previously he was ,.902, .901. Those are brutal numbers.

Johnson was .891 in Buffalo and ,.910 the previous year. Not good enough.

Pavelec was .910 this past season. Then he was .888 and spent most of the year in the minors as a Jet. Then .904. Jumped to .920, then was .901, .905, .906. Not good enough.

There is just a few of them. Mzazek has been bad for several years now. Maybe I think about Lehner but I think he gets more money than what they paid Koskinen. But maybe he would have been a guy to role the dice on IF you could even get him.


You are using .910 as a benchmark. From a lot of people that is seen as line in the sand for an starting goalie. Of goalies with more than 10GP there were 39 in the league last season that achieved at so it seems fine to use.

Take the names, bias on size, personal, or a seemingly arbitrary accusation of bad, most of the guys you list fall in that .910 acceptable range.

By your own numbers you have listed a number of guys that fall in the .900-.910 category and listed not good enough a few times.

Just so I am clear and if I am we can agree to disagree.
You are not happy with the signing but are ok with hoping and praying(your words) that Koskinen is substantially better that one of the options the Oilers could have gone after, likely for a lower price?
Does that sum up your opinion on the signing?




I am done debating with you. I stupidly broke my own rule and responded to one of your posts and I have done it more than once. Definitely a mistake on my part. I don't know how many times I can say that I don't like the signing. I said the money was a bit high for my tastes. I said I really dislike gambling on a guy that is a complete unknown and that I would not have done it. The only thing remotely positive I have said is its a 1 yr deal and I really hope it works out. Hockey is my favorite sport to play and watch. The Oilers are my team, I have been a fan my entire life. I want my team to win so that is why I hope it works out because if it doesn't, it hurts my team. I don't know what else you want me to say.

Have a nice day.


You can at least all be proud that you are likely putting more thought into this whole situation than Chia, Lowe and Friends did :)


The Oilers management conversation was probably something like:

"We need a backup"
"Hey, this guy won a bunch of KHL championships and wants to try the NHL again"
"Sign him for whatever he wants"

[Updated on: Thu, 03 May 2018 15:50]


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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714312 is a reply to message #714310 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:48

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:33

PlusOne wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:16

Fair points but I have a couple questions


RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



I don't think the guys I listed are good enough NHL goalies. Everyone agrees Talbot and the .908 he ended up with wasn't good enough. So why would I want to bring in another guy with similar or worse numbers?



If we are signing a guy for one year who is a clear back up his numebrs don't have to be better than what we expect from Talbot, just decent backup number

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:01



Lehtonen in a reduced role had a .912 this past year. The previous years he was .902, .906, .903. He will be 35 in November. I am not confident that a 35 yr old goalie will put up .910 or better numbers, I think he will put up numbers similar to what he did the previous years which isn't good enough.

Halak put up .908 this past season. When I look at his numbers, his numbers are decent. However, I personally have never been a fan of him. He lost his job to Griess who's not that good either, spent half of last season in the minors last year so there had to be a reason. Goaltending was the main reason the Isles didn't make the playoffs. By today's standards he's really small. Why would I want to bring in a goalie who's small by today's standards and not that great?

Ward was .906 this season. He was .905, .909, .910, .898, .908. Other than he grew up in Sherwood Park, I see nothing appealing about him.

Lack this season when he was with Calgary was .813, spent time in the minors, went to New Jersey where he was .903. Then previously he was ,.902, .901. Those are brutal numbers.

Johnson was .891 in Buffalo and ,.910 the previous year. Not good enough.

Pavelec was .910 this past season. Then he was .888 and spent most of the year in the minors as a Jet. Then .904. Jumped to .920, then was .901, .905, .906. Not good enough.

There is just a few of them. Mzazek has been bad for several years now. Maybe I think about Lehner but I think he gets more money than what they paid Koskinen. But maybe he would have been a guy to role the dice on IF you could even get him.


You are using .910 as a benchmark. From a lot of people that is seen as line in the sand for an starting goalie. Of goalies with more than 10GP there were 39 in the league last season that achieved at so it seems fine to use.

Take the names, bias on size, personal, or a seemingly arbitrary accusation of bad, most of the guys you list fall in that .910 acceptable range.

By your own numbers you have listed a number of guys that fall in the .900-.910 category and listed not good enough a few times.

Just so I am clear and if I am we can agree to disagree.
You are not happy with the signing but are ok with hoping and praying(your words) that Koskinen is substantially better that one of the options the Oilers could have gone after, likely for a lower price?
Does that sum up your opinion on the signing?




I am done debating with you. I stupidly broke my own rule and responded to one of your posts and I have done it more than once. Definitely a mistake on my part. I don't know how many times I can say that I don't like the signing. I said the money was a bit high for my tastes. I said I really dislike gambling on a guy that is a complete unknown and that I would not have done it. The only thing remotely positive I have said is its a 1 yr deal and I really hope it works out. Hockey is my favorite sport to play and watch. The Oilers are my team, I have been a fan my entire life. I want my team to win so that is why I hope it works out because if it doesn't, it hurts my team. I don't know what else you want me to say.

Have a nice day.


You can at least all be proud that you are likely putting more thought into this whole situation than Chia, Lowe and Friends did :)


The Oilers management conversation was probably something like:

"We need a backup"
"Hey, this guy won a bunch of KHL championships and wants to try the NHL again"
"Sign him for whatever he wants"

On the surface it looks that way. I don't know who did the evaluation of Koskinen but if its the same guy that thought Gustavsson was good and to a lesser extend Montoya, the Oilers could be in trouble.

I actually don't mind having Montoya even if it's in the minors because right now the Oilers don't have a lot of goaltending depth. Brossoit crashed and burned and I assume is gone. Ellis needs a new contract. He looked good his first year in the AHL but was brutal this past season. I am not a goalie expert but if you can't get over .900 in the minors it's not looking too good. Do they even bring him back? They have Starrett who was in the ECHL, Wells who I think will turn pro and maybe Skinner though I am not sure he's old enough. Pretending that Koskinen actually works out, if they didn't have Montoya and something happened, who would be their #3?



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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714314 is a reply to message #714309 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:33


I am done debating with you. I stupidly broke my own rule and responded to one of your posts and I have done it more than once. Definitely a mistake on my part. I don't know how many times I can say that I don't like the signing. I said the money was a bit high for my tastes. I said I really dislike gambling on a guy that is a complete unknown and that I would not have done it. The only thing remotely positive I have said is its a 1 yr deal and I really hope it works out. Hockey is my favorite sport to play and watch. The Oilers are my team, I have been a fan my entire life. I want my team to win so that is why I hope it works out because if it doesn't, it hurts my team. I don't know what else you want me to say.

Have a nice day.


Easy man, I thought we were having a good discussion. I wasn't accusing you of defending it or cutting down your view. My last line asking if I had your POV correct was genuine.

I am and was trying to engage with you in a respectful way.

I was actually trying to see if I was wrong on the available goalie thing. Maybe the goalies on the market are junk and I was not seeing it.

Just because we disagree doesnt mean either of us is wrong or being disrespectful. I am not sure why you took this stance. I was happy discussing how we were.
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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714311 is a reply to message #714308 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 15:51 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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PlusOne wrote on Thu, 03 May 2018 15:16


You are using .910 as a benchmark. From a lot of people that is seen as line in the sand for an starting goalie. Of goalies with more than 10GP there were 39 in the league last season that achieved at so it seems fine to use.

Take the names, bias on size, personal, or a seemingly arbitrary accusation of bad, most of the guys you list fall in that .910 acceptable range.

By your own numbers you have listed a number of guys that fall in the .900-.910 category and listed not good enough a few times.

Just so I am clear and if I am we can agree to disagree.
You are not happy with the signing but are ok with hoping and praying(your words) that Koskinen is substantially better that one of the options the Oilers could have gone after, likely for a lower price?
Does that sum up your opinion on the signing?



I was curious about that - what's back-up numbers for save percentage. Makes sense to take the top 30 goalies and look at their numbers.

The mean would be the baseline for average starting netminder. The lowest would be the tipping point between 1st string and 2nd string. If you took the mean of goalies 31-60, you'd have what an average backup likely should provide to you...at least as guideline numbers.




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 Re: Oilers sign Koskinen [message #714313 is a reply to message #714311 ]
Thu, 03 May 2018 16:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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So I did my own homework on this. Quickly pulled save percentages for all goalies with at least 10 appearances last year. There were 71 goalies that saw that level of action.

For Top 30 - Mean was .921, Median was .921, lowest was .913

So by that logic, your average starter should be in the .920 or better range, and you should be expecting minimum performance of around .913 from your starter.

For Next 30 - Mean was .907, Median was .908, and lowest was .898. So your backup should be in the .908 range if he's average. At bare minimum, he should be .900.

For third strings, the worst 11 goalies had an average of .890 with a median of .893.

Interesting to note that the guys acquired by Chiarelli in Edmonton were #46 (Talbot - .908 - average backup numbers), #57 (Nilsson - .901 - bad backup numbers), #66 (Montoya - .893 - middle of the road third string numbers) and #70 (Brossoit - .883 - second worst in the entire league and a major contributor to the lost season). That's pretty damning. Maggie the Monkey would have picked better goaltending than that. The only saving grace I suppose is that three of those goalies played behind a bad Oilers team which certainly contributed to their poor showing on save percentage.

[Updated on: Thu, 03 May 2018 16:35]


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