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 Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518182]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:09 Go to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff

3 Cups

From The Flying Stortini:

So to sum up the last couple of days:

Out:
Lubo, Grebs, Staios

In:
Whitney, Johnson, Jones, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, ~ 10 Million.

I gotta say, that doesn't look that bad. There's a lot of threads of people throwing Tambo under the bus, but I don't know if it's really warranted.

Thoughts? Am I missing anything?



This brilliant post got me thinking

What did we give up as a whole and what did we get back as a whole.

Out: Lubo, Grebs, Staios

In: Whitney, Johnson, Jones, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, ~ 10 Million.


Lubo, Grebs, and Staios are all assets, in that they are all NHL ready players.

The NHL ready assets Edmonton got back are Whitney and Johnson. I think Nashville may have "waived" Jones as the second half of the Grebs deal, but then why they didn't just send him over, I don't know, maybe they did legitimately waive him, not altogether important.

Of the three picks Edmonton got, one, maybe two, become NHL assets, maybe there is a Shea Weber in there, maybe there is nothing, but more draft picks improves Edmonton’s opportunity for lucky picks.

What does 10 million give us? A better question is, what does getting rid of $10 million give us?

For that, we need an appraisal of each player we let go.

My thoughts on the value of Lubo is that he is a $4 million dollar D-Man on average for the next three years, so let’s say his value is $4 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.


Net savings on Lubo:

Lubo cap hit $5.6 million
Lubo value $4.0 million
Value added $1.6 million

My thoughts on the value of Grebs is that he is a $1.5 million dollar D-Man on average for the next two years, and $2.0 million afterwards, so let's say his value is $1.75 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.


Net savings on Grebs:

Grebs estimated cap hit $3.5 million
Grebs value $1.75 million
Value added $1.75 million

My thoughts on the value of Staios is that he is a $2.5 million dollar D-Man on average for the next two years, so let’s say his value is $2.5 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.


Net savings on Staios:

Staios cap hit $2.7 million
Staios value $2.5 million
Value added $0.2 million

Now on to the players we got in return.

Johnson is a wash as we will have to resign him next year, if we do, I assume it will be at market value, so no adjustment there.

Jones I'll assume the same.

My thoughts on the value of Whitney is that he is a $2 million to $5 million dollar D-Man, and as such I'll go with the mid-point of $3.5 million, so his value is say $3.5 million. I make this assessment with the assumption/belief that a D-Man with similar skill could be found on the open market for the above stated value.

Net cost on Whitney:

Whitney cap hit $4.0 million
Whitney value $3.5 million
Value added -$0.5 million

So to sum up, we got:

Greb cap relief - $1.75
Visnovski cap relief - $1.60
Staios cap relief - $0.20
Whitney cap wastage - ($0.5)
Total cap relief - $3.05

Again, total cap relief or increased cap efficiency of $3.05 million. Note, that this does not mean we are better, it only means we are in a better cap position, if we don't get the replacement players, or if we sign replacement players to contracts that are too high, then we've saved nothing. But for today, we are better off than yesterday.

At the end of the season, Tambo has $11.8 million to make this team better ($5.6 + $2.7 + $3.5). That is if Johnson leaves we have approximately $11.8 million to replace two D-Men, if he stays, approximately $10.5 for one D-Man (I’ve estimated Johnson’s salary to be $1.3 million next year).

Overall we are:

1. Down one D-Man.
2. Down graded on the quality of two D-Men.
3. Up $10.5 million in cap space.
4. Up a tough winger.
5. Up a 2nd, 3rd and 7th round draft pick.

I believe 1, 2 , 3 and 4 wash out to cap efficiency of the $3.05 while the draft picks stand alone in their value. So I think we have a net value increase of:

$3.05 cap hit + 2nd, 3rd, and 6th

Which in my opinion = Good job Tambo.



2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518186 is a reply to message #518182 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Legion  is currently offline Legion
Messages: 36
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No Cups

That hurt my head


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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518188 is a reply to message #518186 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
MrOiler  is currently offline MrOiler
Messages: 331
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No Cups

Legion wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:14

That hurt my head



icon_lol icon_lol icon_lol

Nice one.

However he arrives at his conclusion, I agree with the end result. We did okay considering we don't exactly have the leverage to get great value.

We'll likely have to suffer through another year of pain (2010/11) before we see any light at the end of the tunnel, but we're on our way.




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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518200 is a reply to message #518188 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
the flying stortini  is currently offline the flying stortini
Messages: 233
Registered: October 2007

No Cups

Very good analysis. Plus on top of this there are options for extra money through buy-outs this summer, and trades at the draft.

It's not too far-fetched to think that the Oilers could have

Hemsky
Gagner
Eberle
MPS
Cogliano
Hall
Souray
Brule
Whitney
Smid

All with a young supporting cast and 15 Million dollars in cap leverage.

If anyone is good at digging for info it would be intersting to compare our team and cap space going into this rebuild in comparison with Washington pre-Ovechkin, Pittsburgh the season before Crosby was drafted, and Chicago before Kane.

From there we should be able to have some kind of an idea of what Tambo is doing based on similarities between the teams. If we're going to be drafting our first star in 20 years this summer it would be nice to know what could be done for extra parts.

[Updated on: Wed, 03 March 2010 21:36]


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rukm01 wrote on Sun, 01 July 2012 21:54

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518228 is a reply to message #518200 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
haggis  is currently offline haggis
Messages: 201
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No Cups

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518229 is a reply to message #518228 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 23:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
abootzky  is currently offline abootzky
Messages: 54
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Location: slightly east of Edmonton

No Cups

For a hamstrung GM trying to move forward with the process of rebuilding his 30th place team, I think it would be ridiculous to give Tambellini anything other than a passing grade for his work the last few days.


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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518290 is a reply to message #518228 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 13:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
bigEfromGP  is currently offline bigEfromGP
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2 Cups

haggis wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).


From what I have read, the 2010-11 draft is expected to be the weakest draft in 15 years.



CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:17

CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:00

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518303 is a reply to message #518290 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 14:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17981
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6 Cups

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 13:18

haggis wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).


From what I have read, the 2010-11 draft is expected to be the weakest draft in 15 years.


I don't know that I believe them anymore on those things. I've read a few old articles talking about various drafts now from the days before they took place and it's weird...2001 was touted as a very strong draft...in hindsight, it's as weak as they come. 2003 wasn't supposed to be anything special...it's probably the best in 15 years.

It's hard to get a consensus on where individual players will end up when they're 17 or 18...so it's not surprising that people really don't have a good idea as to how it'll turn out when they talk about the draft class as a whole.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518333 is a reply to message #518303 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 15:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
bigEfromGP  is currently offline bigEfromGP
Messages: 2037
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2 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 14:02

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 13:18

haggis wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).


From what I have read, the 2010-11 draft is expected to be the weakest draft in 15 years.


I don't know that I believe them anymore on those things. I've read a few old articles talking about various drafts now from the days before they took place and it's weird...2001 was touted as a very strong draft...in hindsight, it's as weak as they come. 2003 wasn't supposed to be anything special...it's probably the best in 15 years.

It's hard to get a consensus on where individual players will end up when they're 17 or 18...so it's not surprising that people really don't have a good idea as to how it'll turn out when they talk about the draft class as a whole.


Yeah, I don't put a whole lot of stock in them either, especially when discussing a draft that's nearly a year and a half away, more just sharing what I have read.



CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:17

CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:00

The president thinks he has the ideal male body.
It's hard to disagree that he has the ideal male body.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518339 is a reply to message #518333 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 15:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
Messages: 4864
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

4 Cups

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 18:06

Adam wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 14:02

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 13:18

haggis wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).


From what I have read, the 2010-11 draft is expected to be the weakest draft in 15 years.


I don't know that I believe them anymore on those things. I've read a few old articles talking about various drafts now from the days before they took place and it's weird...2001 was touted as a very strong draft...in hindsight, it's as weak as they come. 2003 wasn't supposed to be anything special...it's probably the best in 15 years.

It's hard to get a consensus on where individual players will end up when they're 17 or 18...so it's not surprising that people really don't have a good idea as to how it'll turn out when they talk about the draft class as a whole.


Yeah, I don't put a whole lot of stock in them either, especially when discussing a draft that's nearly a year and a half away, more just sharing what I have read.


You guys think it's fair to say that scouting is better now than it was, say, 20 years ago?

I believe it is, though I don't have any empirical data to back it up. I'm guessing the "information age" having made access to information and sharing a lot easier. Your scout in Sweden is telling you about this amazing kid - you don't just need to take his word for it or fly over to see for yourself...



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518345 is a reply to message #518339 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 15:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
bigEfromGP  is currently offline bigEfromGP
Messages: 2037
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2 Cups

Mike wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 15:20

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 18:06

Adam wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 14:02

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 13:18

haggis wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).


From what I have read, the 2010-11 draft is expected to be the weakest draft in 15 years.


I don't know that I believe them anymore on those things. I've read a few old articles talking about various drafts now from the days before they took place and it's weird...2001 was touted as a very strong draft...in hindsight, it's as weak as they come. 2003 wasn't supposed to be anything special...it's probably the best in 15 years.

It's hard to get a consensus on where individual players will end up when they're 17 or 18...so it's not surprising that people really don't have a good idea as to how it'll turn out when they talk about the draft class as a whole.


Yeah, I don't put a whole lot of stock in them either, especially when discussing a draft that's nearly a year and a half away, more just sharing what I have read.


You guys think it's fair to say that scouting is better now than it was, say, 20 years ago?

I believe it is, though I don't have any empirical data to back it up. I'm guessing the "information age" having made access to information and sharing a lot easier. Your scout in Sweden is telling you about this amazing kid - you don't just need to take his word for it or fly over to see for yourself...



Yes, I would agree with that. But I think that just means that we see more European players (which we have) and we see less big-time first flops (Daigle, Bosignoire AKA Not Doan). I realize that some teams seem to continually draft better than others, but I would argue that some of that credit, in my mind a considerable amount, can be attributed to development and less to drafting.



CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:17

CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:00

The president thinks he has the ideal male body.
It's hard to disagree that he has the ideal male body.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518359 is a reply to message #518345 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 17:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 17981
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6 Cups

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 15:52

Mike wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 15:20

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 18:06

Adam wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 14:02

bigEfromGP wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 13:18

haggis wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:14

It's also good to look at the projected potential of that supporting cast you speak of. Lander, Omark, Nash, Plante are projected as top line players if they hit their projection. Another big bonus of this salary dumping is that you can afford to throw a one year contract at Omark to see what he can do and if he fails you can cut him loose.

On a kinda associated note, who is projected to go #1 NEXT year and what kind of player are they projected to be, is it a Crosby/Ovy/Malkin kinda guy (you can sense my confidence).


From what I have read, the 2010-11 draft is expected to be the weakest draft in 15 years.


I don't know that I believe them anymore on those things. I've read a few old articles talking about various drafts now from the days before they took place and it's weird...2001 was touted as a very strong draft...in hindsight, it's as weak as they come. 2003 wasn't supposed to be anything special...it's probably the best in 15 years.

It's hard to get a consensus on where individual players will end up when they're 17 or 18...so it's not surprising that people really don't have a good idea as to how it'll turn out when they talk about the draft class as a whole.


Yeah, I don't put a whole lot of stock in them either, especially when discussing a draft that's nearly a year and a half away, more just sharing what I have read.


You guys think it's fair to say that scouting is better now than it was, say, 20 years ago?

I believe it is, though I don't have any empirical data to back it up. I'm guessing the "information age" having made access to information and sharing a lot easier. Your scout in Sweden is telling you about this amazing kid - you don't just need to take his word for it or fly over to see for yourself...



Yes, I would agree with that. But I think that just means that we see more European players (which we have) and we see less big-time first flops (Daigle, Bosignoire AKA Not Doan). I realize that some teams seem to continually draft better than others, but I would argue that some of that credit, in my mind a considerable amount, can be attributed to development and less to drafting.


For the record, it was Steve Kelly we picked over Doan. We could have had Jeff O'Neill over Bonsignore though...

I wonder if better scouting will just make it easier to identify some of the diamonds in the rough, as opposed to stopping flops. I mean, people were pretty excited about Patrick Stefan, and it hasn't been good. A guy like Legwand has had a decent career, but he certainly never lived up to his draft potential...

There's also the possibility that teams decide to lean too much on technology to draft...the Sabres were roundly criticized for adopting a system that has less scouts and more technology. It'll be interesting to see in ten years what that's meant to the Sabres organization.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518357 is a reply to message #518290 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 17:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Boniman  is currently offline Boniman
Messages: 533
Registered: August 2005
Location: In your mom's room

No Cups

Every draft we're in is a weak one with our scouting abilities.



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518203 is a reply to message #518188 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jerekybeef  is currently offline jerekybeef
Messages: 375
Registered: July 2006
Location: Kamloops

No Cups

MrOiler wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:18

Legion wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:14

That hurt my head





We'll likely have to suffer through another year of pain (2010/11) before we see any light at the end of the tunnel, but we're on our way.






But the best part is that we will suffer through the year watching younger players that want to win and not washed up fellas that are pretty much just collecting their unearned pay night after night. Everyone would much rather see the youngsters get out their and do their thing, run their own show if you will. I am sure we have all worked with those kind of guys. The ones who are completely inept yet are still employed because they have some type of job security (ie seniority, union protection). They tend to bring everyone else around them down to their level because if he can do it why can't I? Get rid of those guys and bring the moral up and presto you have hope, promise and a sense of purpose again. At least that's how I see it. Look at Colorado and to a lesser extent LA and Phoenix.



"Make the Oilers great again" - Donny Tramp

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518205 is a reply to message #518188 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

4 Cups

The key moving forward is NOT paying $2-$3M for 3rd/4th liner players and bottom pairing Dmen.

To manage the cap you need to have a handful of guys at around $1M or less.

I mean just a quick comparison between the Oilers and say the Red Wings

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=EDM

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=DET




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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518208 is a reply to message #518205 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerinvan  is currently offline oilerinvan
Messages: 1900
Registered: September 2007
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Mike wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:44

The key moving forward is NOT paying $2-$3M for 3rd/4th liner players and bottom pairing Dmen.

To manage the cap you need to have a handful of guys at around $1M or less.

I mean just a quick comparison between the Oilers and say the Red Wings

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=EDM

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=DET


Very good pont. There is no sense in replacing bad contracts with bad contracts.

Side note: It's rare that a thread gets moved from Spec to Oilers.



Horcoff and MacIntyre rule.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518213 is a reply to message #518208 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 22:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
g2k  is currently offline g2k
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6 Cups

oilerinvan wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:58

Mike wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:44

The key moving forward is NOT paying $2-$3M for 3rd/4th liner players and bottom pairing Dmen.

To manage the cap you need to have a handful of guys at around $1M or less.

I mean just a quick comparison between the Oilers and say the Red Wings

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=EDM

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=DET


Very good pont. There is no sense in replacing bad contracts with bad contracts.

Side note: It's rare that a thread gets moved from Spec to Oilers.

Good observation.

I would guess it's a first.



#firebob #screwitjustselltheteam

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518209 is a reply to message #518205 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 22:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
the flying stortini  is currently offline the flying stortini
Messages: 233
Registered: October 2007

No Cups

Mike wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:44

The key moving forward is NOT paying $2-$3M for 3rd/4th liner players and bottom pairing Dmen.

To manage the cap you need to have a handful of guys at around $1M or less.

I mean just a quick comparison between the Oilers and say the Red Wings

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=EDM

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=DET




Looking at the Oilers cap chart, it looks like ideally Nilsson / POS / Gilbert could be moved at the draft, Pisani will be gone, and Moreau could be bought out.

From there Gagner and Cogs can get their raises, and the 3rd/4th liners could get their million dollar contracts, all with cap to spare. The big hole is in D, and there are tons of D-men coming up on the UFA market this summer.
http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-nhl-unrestricted-free-age nts-by-position/



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rukm01 wrote on Sun, 01 July 2012 21:54

Souray is a Duck is one letter away from being totally accurate.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518211 is a reply to message #518209 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 22:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
Messages: 3959
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Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff

3 Cups

Looking at that list makes me think that we can get our defence back to where it was at the start of the day for under $5 million.


2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518236 is a reply to message #518205 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 03:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NotLeeFogolin  is currently offline NotLeeFogolin
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Mike wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:44

The key moving forward is NOT paying $2-$3M for 3rd/4th liner players and bottom pairing Dmen.

To manage the cap you need to have a handful of guys at around $1M or less.

This, I think, is the most important lesson for the cap-world Oilers management group to learn. Look at Pittsburgh. They have 7 guys earning above $2M. While I'm not advocating that as a rule, I think it would be a good place to start. Before this week we had 11. Today we have 9.

I remember hearing this theory last summer and I think it's valid: in the new NHL, elite players will continue to get paid elite money but everyone else will suffer. I think you have to be kind of ruthless that way as a manager. Know your stars.




Burke > Tambellini

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518196 is a reply to message #518182 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerinvan  is currently offline oilerinvan
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I agree. I think Tambellini did a good job. Or rather, he seems to be off to a good start. He has a lot more work to do, but he got rid of some crap and got what we need back to start a rebuild.

I am still curious about Comrie and Moreau. They must have thought they were going to move those two.



Horcoff and MacIntyre rule.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518201 is a reply to message #518182 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 21:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
philly boy  is currently offline philly boy
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The Visnovsky trade as of right now, is just plain ugly.

Staios trade is good.

Grebeshkov for a 2nd is... potentially bad and dumb, still on the fence with this one.

Tambellini get's a D+ from me.



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Who [message #518218 is a reply to message #518201 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 22:38 Go to previous messageGo to next message
WizardofOil  is currently offline WizardofOil
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philly boy wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 13:35

The Visnovsky trade as of right now, is just plain ugly.

Grebeshkov for a 2nd is... potentially bad and dumb, still on the fence with this one.

Tambellini get's a D+ from me.


I am curious to your assessment here. Why ugly, bad and dumb?

The Visnovsky trade is not so ugly. Whitney, while not as skilled and smooth, has almost as many points as Vis, plus he is 6'4'', 27, and 1.6 million cheaper. I agree that Anaheim got the better player; it is not that ugly to me.

As for Grebeshkov, he was making 3 million and up for a potential raise. He is a give away king, not physical and not overly defensive. He is has decent speed and offensive skills, but you don't pay a guy 3million plus to be decent. I am happy with a 2nd rounder and minus the cap hit to spend on players with more upside (like Gagner). Not bad or dumb in my opinion. (Wouldn't that be great if Nashville didn't qualify Grebs, he becomes an UFA, and we sign him for 1.25 million.)

I think Tambo gets a "A". He did well at getting more space and not sacrificing too much considering he is dealing in a position of complete weakness (thanks KLowe).

[Updated on: Wed, 03 March 2010 22:42]


"I'm one of those guys that if you don't want to play here, don't screw around, get the hell out." - Pat Quinn

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Who [message #518222 is a reply to message #518218 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 22:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
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Wow, the main page, go Assessment Thread! That was a fun day, and with that I'm taking an Oilfans sabbatical until April 1st, but I’ll still lurk on you guys.

Creep you later,

Magnum



2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518226 is a reply to message #518218 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 23:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jimmer  is currently offline Jimmer
Messages: 180
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Tambo gets a B (because he shed a lot of salary).

Now our focus has to be on getting another 1st round pick (top 10) this year so we can go after one of these d-men to go with Hall/Seguin.

Fowler, Cam D 12/5/1991 L *6.02 195 Windsor OHL
Gormley, Brandon D 2/18/1992 L *6.02 187 Moncton QMJHL
Pysyk, Mark D 1/11/1992 R *6.01.25 174 Edmonton WHL
Gudbranson, Erik D 1/7/1992 R *6.03.75 195 Kingston OHL

If Tambo can pull that off...we will finally see light at the end of the tunnel.



“I wanna kiss you. I couldn't care less about the team struggguulliing…We're looking to make a noise now and ... I wanna kiss you!” – Joe Namath.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518233 is a reply to message #518226 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 01:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Jimmer wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:01

Tambo gets a B (because he shed a lot of salary).

Now our focus has to be on getting another 1st round pick (top 10) this year so we can go after one of these d-men to go with Hall/Seguin.

Fowler, Cam D 12/5/1991 L *6.02 195 Windsor OHL
Gormley, Brandon D 2/18/1992 L *6.02 187 Moncton QMJHL
Pysyk, Mark D 1/11/1992 R *6.01.25 174 Edmonton WHL
Gudbranson, Erik D 1/7/1992 R *6.03.75 195 Kingston OHL

If Tambo can pull that off...we will finally see light at the end of the tunnel.



I think you might be dreaming. So far this year, only two teams have dealt their first round pick. Toronto traded theirs to get Kessel, and New Jersey dealt theirs for Kovalchuk. Calgary dealt this year's pick last trade deadline for Jokinen. There were NO first rounders dealt at the trade deadline.

If you look at players we're likely to move this summer, I don't think any of them are likely worth a first rounder. Guys like Moreau, O'Sullivan and Nilsson aren't very attractive at all at their numbers, and Souray just makes too much to garner that kind of return...not to mention all his health issues in the three seasons he's been an Oiler. Certainly none of those guys are in the Kovalchuk/Kessel stratosphere, or even on par with Jokinen.

Teams value their first rounders so highly...although maybe that changes if you get to the draft and the guy someone wants is gone. Chances are it'll cost you both of our second rounders just to move up to #20 or higher...and our first second rounder might very well be #31.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518220 is a reply to message #518201 ]
Wed, 03 March 2010 22:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hmc  is currently offline hmc
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philly boy wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:35

The Visnovsky trade as of right now, is just plain ugly.

Staios trade is good.

Grebeshkov for a 2nd is... potentially bad and dumb, still on the fence with this one.

Tambellini get's a D+ from me.


So wait, you're assessing Visnovsky as of right now, but Grebeshkov you're assessing based on the potential of the deal?

So, Grebs may turn into a player, so you're withholding judgment, but Whitney is definitely a dud? Or, you're assuming that Visnovsky will have a stellar finish with the Ducks this year, thereby rendering the remaining years on each contract irrelevant? Not to mention the age difference?

I still don't quite get how it's not a good thing to get younger, bigger, and cheaper (and I loved Lubo) for a team that's embarking on a lengthy rebuild. The NHL is no longer just about asset management, GMs have to balance that with cap management. This to me seems like a pretty solid balance of both.



Then I'll just regress, because I feel I've made myself perfectly redundant.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518232 is a reply to message #518220 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 01:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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hmcewan wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 22:43

philly boy wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 23:35

The Visnovsky trade as of right now, is just plain ugly.

Staios trade is good.

Grebeshkov for a 2nd is... potentially bad and dumb, still on the fence with this one.

Tambellini get's a D+ from me.


So wait, you're assessing Visnovsky as of right now, but Grebeshkov you're assessing based on the potential of the deal?

So, Grebs may turn into a player, so you're withholding judgment, but Whitney is definitely a dud? Or, you're assuming that Visnovsky will have a stellar finish with the Ducks this year, thereby rendering the remaining years on each contract irrelevant? Not to mention the age difference?

I still don't quite get how it's not a good thing to get younger, bigger, and cheaper (and I loved Lubo) for a team that's embarking on a lengthy rebuild. The NHL is no longer just about asset management, GMs have to balance that with cap management. This to me seems like a pretty solid balance of both.


Exactly. I'm not sure why people are so down on the Whitney deal, as he seems to pick up points at almost the same rate as Visnovsky for the last three seasons. Is he as good? The stats say no, but then, we're paying him $1.6MM less, and we got a 6th rounder thrown in, so that equalizes things for me.

And he's a player that I really thought looked good with Pittsburgh in his first couple seasons.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518241 is a reply to message #518201 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 07:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
AndersonRules  is currently offline AndersonRules
Messages: 415
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No Cups

philly boy wrote on Wed, 03 March 2010 21:35

The Visnovsky trade as of right now, is just plain ugly.

Staios trade is good.

Grebeshkov for a 2nd is... potentially bad and dumb, still on the fence with this one.

Tambellini get's a D+ from me.


You're taking some heat for this! But I actually agree with you. The Staios trade is very good. Grebeshkov trade is risky, and I thought he should have netted more than just a 2nd round pick. Either a 2nd + a prospect, or a 2nd and 4th, or something. Not just a 2nd round pick. Beat on him all you will, he's still an established NHL defenceman who has had flashes of brilliance.

The Visnovsky trade I think is terrible. Whitney may turn out to be an absolute stud here and prove me wrong, but Visnovsky has been nothing short of terrific as an Oiler - and that on a roundly terrible team! I know there's talk of how Visnovsky would have been either too old or moving on by the time the Oilers are ready to compete, but is not the same thing true of Whitney? He'll be a UFA the same time Visnovsky was scheduled to be. Will he stick around to see the glory days (if there ever are any)?

Plus, I don't see the increased cap space (from the Visnovsky trade alone, I'm talking) as being as valuable as others perceive it. We gained substantial cap space in the Grebeshkov and Staios trades; and we don't really need any more for next year. Who are we going to throw money at as a UFA? Kovalchuk? If we're going true rebuild, we should be looking at (at most) signing journeymen or older vets looking for a second chance over the off-season - we don't need the cap space to chase after the UFA studs.

From my perspective, we gutted our defence corps, emptied it of two of our top 3 d-men on the year (Visnovsky, [Smid], and Staios have been our best in my opinion), are still stuck with an overabundance of marginal forwards (which handicaps us more going forward), and only gained three draft picks, only one 2nd round or higher.

I might give Tambellini a C (and I do give grades for a living), but he certainly didn't have an A or B performance.



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518278 is a reply to message #518241 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 12:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
Messages: 4864
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Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

4 Cups

AndersonRules wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 10:36

Who are we going to throw money at as a UFA? Kovalchuk? If we're going true rebuild, we should be looking at (at most) signing journeymen or older vets looking for a second chance over the off-season - we don't need the cap space to chase after the UFA studs.


Agree 100%. That's one of my hopes for this offseason. No chasing rainbows crap. I don't want to hear that we almost had a 3 way deal in place to land both Crosby and OV. Just STFU, go about your business, and don't go chasing the Kovalchuks et al. Sign cheap one year deals if you can to fill out your roster. If they play well enough, you turn them into assets at the trade deadline.

Something I wouldn't mind seeing is a couple of homerun swings for guys not in the NHL. Guys like Cervenka who could be signed to an entry level deal. I'm sure there are others out there like that. Worst case we sign a bunch of Dopitas and get another #1 overall pick. Best case, we find a St Louis, Rafalski, Boyle, or Backstrom in there somewhere.



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518363 is a reply to message #518278 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 17:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
BigHead_41  is currently offline BigHead_41
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Why even bring in any vets? Why not let the kids play and see where it can go. I know that we need to have a few solid NHLers. But don't we have that is Souray, Penner, Hemsky, Whitney and Khabby? Use those guys as your elderstatesmen and bring the youth in to play around them. Let them get the experience they need and we'll be good in 2011-2012.


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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518364 is a reply to message #518363 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 17:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Boniman  is currently offline Boniman
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BigHead_41 wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 17:53

Why even bring in any vets? Why not let the kids play and see where it can go. I know that we need to have a few solid NHLers. But don't we have that is Souray, Penner, Hemsky, Whitney and Khabby? Use those guys as your elderstatesmen and bring the youth in to play around them. Let them get the experience they need and we'll be good in 2011-2012.


I agree with this philosophy 100% Rather take a few years in the trash, ala Pitts...and build a good young team. Shed the dead weight, and drink alot before every game.




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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518368 is a reply to message #518278 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 19:13 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilLife  is currently offline OilLife
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I am in total agreement with that , trade Souray for a Fistric, Matt Walker or Jeff Schultz and then turn around and sign a UFA like Ference to shore up depth on the back end. Stay away from the Kovalchuks, Marleau and Hamhuis sized contracts..stay the course...do a proper rebuild.

[Updated on: Thu, 04 March 2010 19:16]


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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518369 is a reply to message #518241 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 19:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
WizardofOil  is currently offline WizardofOil
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Location: Sherwood Park

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AndersonRules wrote on Thu, 04 March 2010 23:36


Plus, I don't see the increased cap space (from the Visnovsky trade alone, I'm talking) as being as valuable as others perceive it. Who are we going to throw money at as a UFA? Kovalchuk? If we're going true rebuild, we should be looking at (at most) signing journeymen or older vets looking for a second chance over the off-season - we don't need the cap space to chase after the UFA studs.

I might give Tambellini a C (and I do give grades for a living), but he certainly didn't have an A or B performance.



You make some valid points and I completely agree that we should not chase UFA's. The cap space in my opinion is extremely valuable for the rebuild. We have 12 RFA's to sign this summer. They are: Gagner, Cogliano, Pouliot, Brule, Stone, Jacques, Potulny, Peckham, O'Marra, Reddox, JDD, and Dubnyk. We need all the cap space possible to accomplish this. Now we might not choose to sign all of these guys of course but I see at least 8 there that are needed to be signed.

So yes to rebuild, no to UFA's, yes to cap space, no to useless overpaid contracts. I give grades for a living too. I still think Tambo gets an A. He is handcuffed with bad contracts and I think that he is doing the best with whom he has.



"I'm one of those guys that if you don't want to play here, don't screw around, get the hell out." - Pat Quinn

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518386 is a reply to message #518369 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 21:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Beerfish Revisited  is currently offline Beerfish Revisited
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Registered: May 2005

1 Cup

So yes to rebuild, no to UFA's, yes to cap space, no to useless overpaid contracts. I give grades for a living too. I still think Tambo gets an A. He is handcuffed with bad contracts and I think that he is doing the best with whom he has.

I honestly don't see how in the world he could be given an A unless you think Whitney for Visnoksy is a great trade.

Getting Jones on Waivers - good
Staios trade - Very good
Grebeshkov trade - medium
Visnoksy trade - really lousy. (Not good enough trade value, only gained 1.6 cap space, player is 27 years old.)

I'd give him a C (He really really needed to find a way to dump Moreau for anything.)




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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518389 is a reply to message #518386 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 22:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
WizardofOil  is currently offline WizardofOil
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Beerfish Revisited wrote on Fri, 05 March 2010 13:44

[b]
Visnoksy trade - really lousy. (Not good enough trade value, only gained 1.6 cap space, player is 27 years old.)
I'd give him a C (He really really needed to find a way to dump Moreau for anything.)



I know what you mean. Visnovsky is more talented and proven. He was good for us in every game he played. I am a big fan. I am trying to think from a GM perspective. In a non-cap world the return is much higher. However, it is so difficult to get a team to take on that much salary. So we of course had to take some salary back.

The fact that he is working with his hands tied from a position of despiration and still got bigger, younger, cheaper, and almost the same production. That is the reason I give him an A.

I agree about Moreau, but nobody wants him. The only way to get rid of him is take on an equally underachieving bad contract. So the Oil will have to ride out the last year of the contract and next deadline someone may swallow the rest of it if he has any game left.




"I'm one of those guys that if you don't want to play here, don't screw around, get the hell out." - Pat Quinn

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518395 is a reply to message #518389 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 22:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hmc  is currently offline hmc
Messages: 1254
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WizardofOil wrote on Fri, 05 March 2010 00:17

Beerfish Revisited wrote on Fri, 05 March 2010 13:44

[b]
Visnoksy trade - really lousy. (Not good enough trade value, only gained 1.6 cap space, player is 27 years old.)
I'd give him a C (He really really needed to find a way to dump Moreau for anything.)



I know what you mean. Visnovsky is more talented and proven. He was good for us in every game he played. I am a big fan. I am trying to think from a GM perspective. In a non-cap world the return is much higher. However, it is so difficult to get a team to take on that much salary. So we of course had to take some salary back.

The fact that he is working with his hands tied from a position of despiration and still got bigger, younger, cheaper, and almost the same production. That is the reason I give him an A.

I agree about Moreau, but nobody wants him. The only way to get rid of him is take on an equally underachieving bad contract. So the Oil will have to ride out the last year of the contract and next deadline someone may swallow the rest of it if he has any game left.




icon_thumbsup

Well done, sir. Seriously, it's like some people think that all it takes to make trades is to just make a phone call. Or that clearing cap space is a matter of just snapping your fingers and saying "cap space be gone!"

Or, that "rebuilding" (the 2010 Oilfans buzzword of the year) is just a matter of saying "bingo bango, we're rebuilt!"




Then I'll just regress, because I feel I've made myself perfectly redundant.

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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518398 is a reply to message #518395 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 22:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Beerfish Revisited  is currently offline Beerfish Revisited
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1 Cup

Tambos biggest sin in all this is not going rebuild a full year or more earlier. He would have had much more luck clearing the impending deadwood before we turned into a big bag of suck as a team.


I still don't totally buy the old his hands were totally tied bit. He inherited a ton of awful moves by Lowe but he had the chance to correct a number of them much earlier and he failed to do so.

In anycase, hopefully he can deal another player or two at the draft.



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 Well BR... [message #518401 is a reply to message #518398 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 22:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
AY  is currently offline AY
Messages: 1803
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I guess he wasn't lying to everyone... he had to see it all for himself!

Couldn't take our word!



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 Re: Assessment of the Trades/Moves as a Whole [message #518406 is a reply to message #518398 ]
Thu, 04 March 2010 23:06 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
hmc  is currently offline hmc
Messages: 1254
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Location: Toronto

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Beerfish Revisited wrote on Fri, 05 March 2010 00:47

Tambos biggest sin in all this is not going rebuild a full year or more earlier. He would have had much more luck clearing the impending deadwood before we turned into a big bag of suck as a team.


I still don't totally buy the old his hands were totally tied bit. He inherited a ton of awful moves by Lowe but he had the chance to correct a number of them much earlier and he failed to do so.

In anycase, hopefully he can deal another player or two at the draft.


There was absolutely no reason for the team to go into full rebuild last year, or in the off season, from a PR standpoint(or any other standpoint, IMO). They were a borderline playoff team, with young "up-and-coming" players, and some guys coming off what we hoped were off-years.

You're conflating your own ability to have 20/20 hindsight with Tambo's inability to have 20/20 foresight.

Draft day is a big day though, agreed.



Then I'll just regress, because I feel I've made myself perfectly redundant.

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