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 Nurse's Future [message #742409]
Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40 Go to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 11760
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



"This team needs an enema!"
#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan #FireBobbyNicks and...SIGH...#FireTheGretzkys

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 Re: Nurse's Future [message #742410 is a reply to message #742409 ]
Fri, 06 September 2019 09:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 14298
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



If Nurse has another good season, I think they would move Klef before Nurse. Nurse is too popular in the room and with the org. And he is going to convince Hall to come back too, as per Garfield.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Nurse's Future [message #742413 is a reply to message #742410 ]
Fri, 06 September 2019 10:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 11760
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:50

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



If Nurse has another good season, I think they would move Klef before Nurse. Nurse is too popular in the room and with the org. And he is going to convince Hall to come back too, as per Garfield.


It would not surprise me, but it would be foolish.

Klefbom, after this season, will have 3 more years at $4.167MM. Even if Nurse were to score an extra 5 points a season (and I don't expect him to), paying him $2.5 to $3.0MM more than Klefbom and locking in long-term is likely a mistake. You can add a pretty decent depth player for that kind of money. Even if you thought Nurse was better than Klefbom (which I think hard to see any evidence for), Klefbom + $2.5MM (assuming the team spends that) vs Nurse is a clear win for 77+.

And while Nurse is more physical, I don't think he is any better as a defensive defenceman. There's some warts in his game. It will be interesting to see how it goes this year with Tippett's plan to start with Nurse/Larsson as a defensive shutdown pair. I don't see either of them as a particularly strong puck-mover, although Nurse does skate the puck well.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Oilers sign Nurse for $7MM and trade away Klefbom instead, because that's the kind of thing the Oilers do, but it's hard to see how that wouldn't be a mistake.



"This team needs an enema!"
#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan #FireBobbyNicks and...SIGH...#FireTheGretzkys

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 Re: Nurse's Future [message #742414 is a reply to message #742413 ]
Fri, 06 September 2019 11:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 14298
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 10:41

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:50

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



If Nurse has another good season, I think they would move Klef before Nurse. Nurse is too popular in the room and with the org. And he is going to convince Hall to come back too, as per Garfield.


It would not surprise me, but it would be foolish.

Klefbom, after this season, will have 3 more years at $4.167MM. Even if Nurse were to score an extra 5 points a season (and I don't expect him to), paying him $2.5 to $3.0MM more than Klefbom and locking in long-term is likely a mistake. You can add a pretty decent depth player for that kind of money. Even if you thought Nurse was better than Klefbom (which I think hard to see any evidence for), Klefbom + $2.5MM (assuming the team spends that) vs Nurse is a clear win for 77+.

And while Nurse is more physical, I don't think he is any better as a defensive defenceman. There's some warts in his game. It will be interesting to see how it goes this year with Tippett's plan to start with Nurse/Larsson as a defensive shutdown pair. I don't see either of them as a particularly strong puck-mover, although Nurse does skate the puck well.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Oilers sign Nurse for $7MM and trade away Klefbom instead, because that's the kind of thing the Oilers do, but it's hard to see how that wouldn't be a mistake.


I don't think they trade Klef right away if they extend Nurse. Maybe in his last season where Klef may be looking at 7+ on an extension to stay an Oiler. Lucky we signed Klef before he really did much in the NHL, one of Chia's few moves that worked out. We can keep both for at least another year, and find ways to get lefties playing on the right side, which I think Broberg has said he's done.

That said, the Nurse/Larsson combo, based on historical stats, does have potential to drive down Nurses's next contract price :)



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 sRe: Nurse's Future [message #742446 is a reply to message #742409 ]
Fri, 06 September 2019 21:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner is currently online mightyreasoner
Messages: 2965
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton

2 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



I think I'd try to keep Nurse AND Klefbom for as long as I can. With Seattle expansion, the team is likely to lose one of Bear or Jones, and Klefbom's health is a MAJOR concern for me. It's a long fall from Klefbom on your first pairing to Russell on your first pairing. It's less of a fall from Klefbom to Nurse (still a fall).

Plus, Nurse has shown an ability to put up points.

$7M isn't a reach for Nurse, not now. That's pretty close to where the market has shifted for similar defensemen, and we may even see that rise depending on what happens with Werenski, Provorov, and McEvoy in the coming weeks. The Oilers probably shouldn't have bridged him, but they painted themselves into a corner and it will cost them a little more now; they won't have the pre-inflation discount they could have.

If the idea is to win sooner rather than later (and if should be given where you are with McDavid) I think you keep the guys in their prime (Klefbom, Nurse, possibly Larsson), work in Bouchard in the next few seasons, and try to keep the third pairing open for some of the younger guys, giving them sheltered roles (Broberg, Lagesson, etc). The last thing you want is all sorts of rookies figuring things out and continuing to tank the McDavid deal. They need to win before McDavid decides he's had enough here.

Sign Nurse. If Broberg or some of the others develop as they hope, Nurse will still be a moveable asset 3 years down the road. There's no rush, and it isn't likely to be an overpay of any sort if/when the time does come to move him.



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 Re: sRe: Nurse's Future [message #742451 is a reply to message #742446 ]
Sat, 07 September 2019 09:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 1222
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

1 Cup

mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 21:20

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



I think I'd try to keep Nurse AND Klefbom for as long as I can. With Seattle expansion, the team is likely to lose one of Bear or Jones, and Klefbom's health is a MAJOR concern for me. It's a long fall from Klefbom on your first pairing to Russell on your first pairing. It's less of a fall from Klefbom to Nurse (still a fall).

Plus, Nurse has shown an ability to put up points.

$7M isn't a reach for Nurse, not now. That's pretty close to where the market has shifted for similar defensemen, and we may even see that rise depending on what happens with Werenski, Provorov, and McEvoy in the coming weeks. The Oilers probably shouldn't have bridged him, but they painted themselves into a corner and it will cost them a little more now; they won't have the pre-inflation discount they could have.

If the idea is to win sooner rather than later (and if should be given where you are with McDavid) I think you keep the guys in their prime (Klefbom, Nurse, possibly Larsson), work in Bouchard in the next few seasons, and try to keep the third pairing open for some of the younger guys, giving them sheltered roles (Broberg, Lagesson, etc). The last thing you want is all sorts of rookies figuring things out and continuing to tank the McDavid deal. They need to win before McDavid decides he's had enough here.

Sign Nurse. If Broberg or some of the others develop as they hope, Nurse will still be a moveable asset 3 years down the road. There's no rush, and it isn't likely to be an overpay of any sort if/when the time does come to move him.

Oilers who aren’t named McDavid should be signing below market value based on the lack of team success. RFA ones anyways.



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: sRe: Nurse's Future [message #742452 is a reply to message #742451 ]
Sat, 07 September 2019 10:11 Go to previous message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 14298
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

CrudeRemarks wrote on Sat, 07 September 2019 09:09

mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 21:20

Adam wrote on Fri, 06 September 2019 09:40

I'm curious what the team does with Nurse. I know that the prevailing wisdom is that he's a core piece, but here's the left side depth chart for the Oilers right now:

Klefbom
Nurse
Russell
Jones
Lagesson
Samurokov
Broberg
Manning
Lowe

That's four youngsters pushing up, all who look to have a decent chance to be NHLers. I don't want to make a move too early like the Oilers usually do - see Gilbert, Petry, etc. - but if you're looking at almost $7MM a season for Nurse, and a couple of those guys have cracked the roster, with a couple more on the horizon? How long do you really want to commit to #25? Especially when Klefbom is better and cheaper, so Nurse is really the second pairing guy. If you think any of those guys are likely better than Nurse in the next 2-3 years, then you can't commit to him long-term at those dollars and his money is maybe better off spent fixing the forwards - or re-signing Nugent-Hopkins to an extension.



I think I'd try to keep Nurse AND Klefbom for as long as I can. With Seattle expansion, the team is likely to lose one of Bear or Jones, and Klefbom's health is a MAJOR concern for me. It's a long fall from Klefbom on your first pairing to Russell on your first pairing. It's less of a fall from Klefbom to Nurse (still a fall).

Plus, Nurse has shown an ability to put up points.

$7M isn't a reach for Nurse, not now. That's pretty close to where the market has shifted for similar defensemen, and we may even see that rise depending on what happens with Werenski, Provorov, and McEvoy in the coming weeks. The Oilers probably shouldn't have bridged him, but they painted themselves into a corner and it will cost them a little more now; they won't have the pre-inflation discount they could have.

If the idea is to win sooner rather than later (and if should be given where you are with McDavid) I think you keep the guys in their prime (Klefbom, Nurse, possibly Larsson), work in Bouchard in the next few seasons, and try to keep the third pairing open for some of the younger guys, giving them sheltered roles (Broberg, Lagesson, etc). The last thing you want is all sorts of rookies figuring things out and continuing to tank the McDavid deal. They need to win before McDavid decides he's had enough here.

Sign Nurse. If Broberg or some of the others develop as they hope, Nurse will still be a moveable asset 3 years down the road. There's no rush, and it isn't likely to be an overpay of any sort if/when the time does come to move him.

Oilers who aren’t named McDavid should be signing below market value based on the lack of team success. RFA ones anyways.


THey probably would, but it would be on deals walking them to UFA. 5Mx2 for Nurse?



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

Send a private message to this user  

 
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