OilFans.com :: Fan Forum: Speculation => 2023

Guest

This day on May 5
Acquired: John Blum (1981)

Happy Birthday To: BitterEnd, limecorrado, Bluefire, oilstained, Oilstained4Life, 35 for HOF

OILERS INFO OILFANS
Sunday, May 5, 2024 7:18 AM MT

F.A.Q.

Members

Home

Speculation » 2023 - The Summer of Ken

Pages (6): [ « < 1 2 3 4 5 6 > »]

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824190 is a reply to message #824186 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 15:58

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 15:16

But you win PI. You and Adam win.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/xThtaeLH0yvYY5lXCU/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47rnoz02832qyrixxfvyyi1perato8znw1honxdrsa&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

Now, if only the Oilers can find a goalie that can help them win too...

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824193 is a reply to message #824190 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 16:05

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 15:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 15:16

But you win PI. You and Adam win.

Now, if only the Oilers can find a goalie that can help them win too...

The box has been checked. Soup and Stew. The last years of the dynamic duo ride on that!

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824192 is a reply to message #824186 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 16:04

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 15:16

When you comment on what I say, do you ever just comment on what I actually say or just twist it to suit your narrative?

In my comment that you quoted in this particular thread, it literally says I can't remember a person advocating to trade Skinner BEFORE THE PLAYOFFS started. I am talking about stuff that happened in April so you drag out a quote from mid December.

So I am taking about trading the guy and you drag out a comment I made about his contract. How the hell are they related? Which in case you are wondering, I stand by what I said regarding the contract because I would have waited until the end of the season to sign him but it looks like it will probably be OK.

But you win PI. You and Adam win. I have repeated myself so many times on this topic, you have beat the will to comment on it anymore. I can only take so much irrational chatter before I am at my limit. Congrats!

You repeat yourself because you don't read what others are saying. For example, you keep talking about people making decisions based on 12 bad (average) games. No one but you is talking about that. We're having a deeper conversation, but you got married to a point and we're all going for a ride on it. It's actually fun having a foil to bounce ideas off of.

I did read what you wrote. It's why I didn't say you wanted to trade him. You didn't. I said there are questions, which is true. Which is also how they're related comments. You (and me) had questions about Skinner when the contract was signed 6 months ago and now I still have questions but you're firmly entrenched in your Skinner cannot be trade under any circumstance position (the direct quote is, "No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.") and therefore refuse any discussion on the issue.

I do wonder which radio personality said 'you can't trade Skinner because of 12 bad games' though. Mostly because you can actually trade away players based on 12 bad games but also because it's such a flawed thought process to first frame an opposing argument then only argue against that.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824194 is a reply to message #824192 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 16:17

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 16:04

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 15:16

It's odd that you can sign a player to a long-term deal for 12 or so good games, but trading them for 12 bad ones is off-limits!

I agree entirely. No one is suggesting he's irredeemable or that he sucks or that his playoffs are something that no one can overcome. People are just weighing the riskiness of that tandem on a season that means EVERYTHING to the Edmonton Oilers.

I will say, I think a big part of that is Oilers fans refusing to believe that bad things like Draisaitl and McDavid leaving can happen. It's amazing after all the bad stuff that HAS happened to us as fans, but what can I say, hope springs eternal and it's always just "we'll get them next year." Hey, but if they do leave, at least we can count on a few things:

- the media will point out that they had to go elsewhere to learn how to win, it could never have happened here.
- the team will find ways to insinuate that they just didn't want to be here and there's nothing that anyone could have done. They didn't like the fishbowl or the weather or the pressure of playing in Canada or that fan in Section 221 who had the mean sign that one game...
- management will disappoint in the return we're able to get for them - or will buy in to the optimism and keep them for that one last season, only to act as if they just got shivved when the players sign as UFAs elsewhere
- NetBOG will develop an undying irrational hatred of them for the rest of their careers.

It's nice to have some certainties in life.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824195 is a reply to message #824194 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 16:26

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 16:17

or that fan in Section 221 who had the mean sign that one game...

I actually regret the things I said about Tom Poti, booing Theo Fluery every time he touched the puck when he was with the Rangers, and chanting "Comrie sucks".

I do not regret what I said about the play of Brad Isbister and Jiri Dopita.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824191 is a reply to message #824181 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 16:04

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35

What it comes down to for me is if a person thinks Skinner has peaked and he's going to spiral down or as first year NHL goalie, can he improve. I don't have a crystal ball so maybe this is a good as Skinner gets and from here, the best he can do is maintain. Personally, I think that's jumping the gun a little. He's 24, a first year NHL goalie. All the way along his pro career, he's shown improvement each year. So I am going to for now, believe in his trend of getting better as he gets experience.
This is the last time I am going to talk about this topic because all I am doing is repeating the same message over and over again. In my opinion, unless you are getting back a guaranteed, no doubt he is better now and will be better for years to come, signed goalie who makes around the same money as Skinner, in my opinion it would be a foolish mistake to get rid of a 24 yr old goalie who is signed for a reasonable contract and who's shown an ability to give you good goaltending, who's coming off his first year as a full time NHL goaltender, primarily because he had a bad playoff which was his very first one for the reasons I have listed multiple times.

So a person can say they aren't basing their decision on the 12 games and list all the stats you want but in my opinion, they are lying. I say that because there wasn't a person here, at least I can't remember one, who was advocating to trade Skinner off before the playoffs. Then a rookie has a rough playoffs, something extremely common and the switch got turned and now he can't do the job and we should be looking elsewhere.

Here is my question for you.

If you knew for certain that if we don't make the Finals next year, that we are going to lose Draisaitl, would you be comfortable hoping betting the season on one of Campbell or Skinner bouncing back and being great playoff goalies next year?

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824197 is a reply to message #824191 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 08:32

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 16:04

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 14:35

I have conceded the debate to you. You've won by wearing me down. I see no point in giving my opinion on it because it will go no where other than in circles. Besides, your question to me is asking me to predict the future on what Drai will want to do. For all I know the Oilers could win the cup for the next 2 years in a row and Drai might still leave or maybe he loves being an Oiler so much he wants to retire as one no matter what they do. I have no clue what the guy wants to do in the future, I can't read his mind. So I can't/won't answer your leading question because unless I give the answer you want, it won't go anywhere.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824198 is a reply to message #824197 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 08:53

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 08:32

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 16:04

If you don't want to respond, don't respond. Otherwise you'll keep getting responses.

The question is not about predicting the future. It's a hypothetical question stamped 'for discussion purposes only'. The answer to the hypothetical as posed "God no" and since the hypothetical question does have a chance at being true, it is sensible to discuss mitigation strategies that go beyond repeating the inane '12 bad games mantra'.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824202 is a reply to message #824198 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 13:41

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 08:53

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 08:32

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 16:04

Yeah, if I'm GM, I think I have to look at these scenarios and I have to be thinking about them at least a couple years out. I then have to run them through a probability matrix - one that probably changes over time. Whether that's getting someone to actually build a model that has the numbers on the screen, or whether that's just in my head and a continuing discussion with my team is up for debate, but it's important to be considering these things. You'd have more data points than we have here too...you'd have all the conversations with the player and the agent. You'd have an understanding (hopefully) on how previous negotiations with the player have gone. You'll hopefully have had robust, open conversations at exit interviews after each season. You'll know better how he fits in the overall locker room and the community at large.

There's a few different scenarios it's probably worth considering:

1) Draisaitl is gone no matter what. We won't be able to pay him what he's worth and he's going to want to try a different market. In that case, I'm either looking to sell now and get the absolute top value for him, or I'm saying screw it - this is our window and we better push hard to win in the short time left. If that's the case, I can't rely on hope that this goalie tandem getting their acts together next year.

2) Draisaitl is gone if we're not a winner (or at minimum a finalist). From where I sit now, I think this is the most likely scenario. Another early exit and he's not re-signing, so swing for the fences next year because you can't afford to lose. Again - if this is the case, then I'm not just hoping Skinner doesn't get playoff jitters in the most important playoffs we'll face.

3) Draisaitl is likely to sign a short-term deal to match McDavid's exit opportunity - This would buy us an extra year, so I'd be SLIGHTLY more willing to roll the dice, but even so, the window is really tight now, and a win is a major relief. It increases the opportunity of both looking to re-sign in Edmonton and even if they didn't, a Cup win at least eases that massive double blow for the fan base. I am still having all the conversations this summer and examining what else is available.

4) Draisaitl loves it in Edmonton so much that he's already talking about his willingness to sign long-term. Ultimately he wants to go post-to-post as an Oiler, so we have nothing to worry about. I think this is the least likely of these scenarios, and even if it is, I wouldn't want further team mismanagement to impact his warm feelings towards the team and the city, so I'm still trying to put the team in the best position to succeed. Given that it's not JUST Draisaitl and McDavid is only one year behind on this, even in this scenario, I'm having a lot of discussions with other teams, player agents and free agents through the next few months before I'm just committing to sticking with the status quo.

As for the comments that goalies are hard to find, I'd suggest that that's probably less true than ever. With teams playing goalies more evenly during the regular season, you have better visibility on what back-ups can carry the mail now. Most of those guys want to be starters at some point, and aren't going to be happy being a 35-game regular season goalie who just watches most of the post-season. There will be more situations like led to our Talbot acquisition or like the Georgiev trade last year because guys will want to go where they have a better opportunity to be the starter instead. Kiprusoff was this kind of deal for Calgary too. We see these kinds of trades every year, and usually it's a draft pick or two that is the cost to get one of these guys. I think Talbot was a couple second round picks if I recall correctly. Quite often you can still get them while they're heading in to the last year of their deal or while their amount of games doesn't yet justify a huge pay raise. Likewise, we're going to see the opposite scenario play out too, where the back-up is gaining favour so a team looks to save some money by shipping out the more expensive guy and putting the younger player in his spot.

Finding these guys takes creativity and an ability to make a good trade. It also means you need to be able to rely on your scouts that they're identifying the right guy - I'm not clear the Oilers can count on their team on that front, sadly. But there are players out there for the getting.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824204 is a reply to message #824202 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 14:17

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 12:41

4) Draisaitl loves it in Edmonton so much that he's already talking about his willingness to sign long-term. Ultimately he wants to go post-to-post as an Oiler, so we have nothing to worry about. I think this is the least likely of these scenarios, and even if it is, I wouldn't want further team mismanagement to impact his warm feelings towards the team and the city, so I'm still trying to put the team in the best position to succeed. Given that it's not JUST Draisaitl and McDavid is only one year behind on this, even in this scenario, I'm having a lot of discussions with other teams, player agents and free agents through the next few months before I'm just committing to sticking with the status quo.

Even if this is the case, Draisaitl's next deal is likely to cost significantly more. There are currently 15 players in the league with a cap hit of $10M or more. Exactly 1 of those players has more points than Draisaitl over the past 3 years, and it's not even close. Draisaitl has 322 points in that time and McKinnon is 3rd with 264.

If this team isn't looking at the next 2 years as their best window, then they should all be fired (I mean, they should all be fired anyways, but they should be extra fired if they think their window looks the same 3-4 years from now).

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824205 is a reply to message #824202 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 14:21

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 13:41

I think that's where the next big jump in hockey management comes from. I think they've already wrung 95% of what can be figured out from the advanced stat revolution. Next step is finding some economists and physicists to figure out how hedge against the future on big picture issues. Where's the cap going, what happens if a player wildly beats expectations or disappoints, what are my injury odds, etc. Basically how not to trap my team in a corner. I think hockey has already mostly figured out what value a third round pick has and what expected return should be hoped for. Planning for and projecting the possibilities for the range of possible outcomes seems like a next step.

I kind of think the Knights are already doing this.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824160 is a reply to message #824157 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 08:56

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No one will convince me otherwise that the people in here or in social media who are advocating to trade Skinner because of 12 games in the playoffs or advocating to get rid of Campbell because of 1 bad season when if you look at his career, he's normally .914 or better, to me is a complete borderline irrational overreaction.

If Campbell doesn't improve then he is no longer an NHL goalie. I find that pretty hard to believe that he can go from being a fairly solid NHL goalie to being done in 1 yr at 31. I also find it even harder to believe that Skinner can go from a looking to be very good young starting goalie to crap in a few weeks of playoff games.

It is what it is in here I guess.

You won't dump a guy because he played poorly and you won't trade a guy who might be overvalued. This is fine unless you think the team needs to get better. Some people here think the team isn't good enough to win and are looking for ways to improve. Now if you think Skinner / Campbell or Campbell / Skinner gets you to a cup you obviously keep them. IF you have some concerns that this team isn't quite right and isn't a real threat to win a Stanley Cup... now is the time to make some hard decision.

For what it's worth, Campbell was for the Oilers what he's always been, just now with the Oilers' defense.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824163 is a reply to message #824160 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 09:23

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:56

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

I am an intelligent, logical person. I don't punt a guy because he had a bad 12 games. I think that's idiotic.

What blows my mind even more about what I think is a ridiculous discussion is some of the people leading it are the same guys who had miles and miles and miles of rope for JP. JP would do NOTHING. He'd have literally ZEROS across his stat line for weeks and weeks. He scored 5 goals last year. That's it 5 goals while playing most of his time with McDavid, the best play by a MILE in the NHL and all he could muster was 5 goals. Some of the people who are advocating to trade Skinner, a rookie starter who had a rough first playoff are the same guys who would come at me day after day and justify JP existence. "Oh did you see when he picked off that ONE pass, Oh did you see when he backed checked that one time. Look at his advanced stats. He makes McD score more." That was the kind of crap sent my way while they topped it off with excuse after excuse of why game after game, week after week he didn't score a single point. Many games he didn't even get a shot on goal while flanking the best player in the world where all you have to do is skate hard, go to the net with your stick down and he will at some point hit your stick with a pass to at least direct the puck on the goal to register a shot and he couldn't do even that.

But let's trade Skinner, a 24 yr old potential starter for a decade because he had a bad first playoff. This place can be a real joke.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824167 is a reply to message #824163 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 09:34

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:23

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:56

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

No, you punt a guy because he's not good enough to win you 16 and you see flaws in his game that will prevent your team from being a contender during a limited window.

How you treat JP and Skinner are in no way comparable. It's, to use your word, an idiotic argument. You have roster depth to nurture an underperforming forward with potential because there are 11 other options in the lineup. Moreover when the question of JP was being asked the Oilers had time to find the answer. Now the Oilers might not have time and the goalie is always the one goalie on the ice. Questions need to be addressed. It's a big picture discussion that cannot be anchored on 12 bad games but rather the sum total of his career and potential, weighed against expected returns from the limited other options available. Your focus is simply too narrow here. The guy you called a "potential starter" is simply not a strong enough option to be married to right now and for the next 3 years. ESPECIALLY when the other goalie has a nearly untradeable contract and is something of a reclamation project.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824172 is a reply to message #824167 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 10:38

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:34

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:23

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:56

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

HOW DO YOU KNOW HE ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH!

You are literally basing it off 12 games. You are deciding a rookie goalie won't be good enough to win next season and beyond based on 12 games in his first playoff. If you don't think that's based on such a small sample size and completely irrational then, I think you are clueless. I am not trying to insult you but to make that leap off of 12 game is ridiculous.

The JP comparison I made isn't stupid because it's based on that fact of how often many people in here continually wanted to give the guy more time. The guy played parts of 6 seasons with the Oilers and maybe if you squint, you might get a season and a half worth of somewhat productive hockey out of almost 6 seasons of hockey. Year after year people said wait, just wait and made excuse after excuse of why he was lousy yet Skinner gets 12 games and he's done. Utterly hypocritical and ridiculous in my opinion.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824174 is a reply to message #824172 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 10:59

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 10:38

I don't know he's not good enough. Same as you don't know that he is good enough to win a cup over the next 2 years. We're not talking about knowing the future. We're talking about whether or not scenarios exist that are more likely to give the Oilers better goaltending. It's absolutely absurd to stomp your feet and refuse to even consider the possibility other options exist ESPECIALLY three weeks after the Oilers were beaten clean by Adin freaking Hill. Adin Hill would have been a better choice than either Skinner or Campbell.

And no, I'm not basing this off of 12 games. I thought he was hopelessly outclassed in his one bubble year start against a really bad team. I thought he was the lazy choice for backup of last resort after Holland checked the goaltending box after signing Campbell. I thought the Oilers made a ridiculous decision to sign him for 3 years after what? 37 mostly good games? I also think the Oilers' season was saved by Skinner last year, but that doesn't mean he's the best bet (or even a good bet) for the next three years.

At an absolute minimum the Oilers need to acknowledge they have goaltending questions going into next season and mitigate the risk. I don't know who this off season's Adin Hill is but I'd certainly at least consider Conner Ingram, Joey Daccord, and Jonas Korpasalo. Hell, Tristan Jarry is a UFA right now. Why not call his agent? Maybe Minnesota can't afford Gustavsson and he could be got on the cheap. You don't know if you simply decide in June that the goaltending duo that wasn't good enough last year will somehow magically be good enough next year. The Knights have five goalies most people consider NHL quality under contract (the real answer is 4, Quick is done) plus a good rookie with potential.

At least take a look.

The JP comparison is idiotic. It's a flawed argument.

[Updated on: Wed, 07 June 2023 11:02]

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824175 is a reply to message #824172 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 11:37

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 10:38

I've figured out the problem for you here. You think we're declaring that Skinner sucks and that he's never going to be any good - the way you do regularly when you decide a player isn't living up to his draft potential.

That's not it at all. Skinner might bounce back, he might become a decent NHL starter some day. I hope for the player that he does, whether with the Oilers or somewhere else.

My issue is around the risk related to that. I do not feel he's a sure bet, and I think there's likely better bets out there. If the Bruins were willing to trade Swayman (which they might be - he's a 1A at this point and due for a significant raise, and Ullmark is likely the top dog there moving forward), then I think that looks like a better bet (although with the normal caveats about playing on a great team with a really solid defence - and how different that might be than here, especially if we still play Desharnais 15-18 mins a night next year).

I also think that despite the risks around Skinner, if he wins the Calder Trophy, he will have actual trade value and so rather than a normal Oilers deal where we flush a once-promising prospect for a late draft pick and an expiring contract for an AHLer we have no intention of re-signing. So if we can get a line on someone with less questions, and potentially have upside on a Skinner deal? I'm pulling the trigger.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824169 is a reply to message #824163 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 09:44

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:23

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:56

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 08:18

If this was 2017, and the Oilers were just finishing McDavid's second season and the starter was a rookie who had a good season and a bad playoffs, then I would absolutely believe you could roll the dice on him and go in to the next year hoping that he learned from his mistakes and that if he worked on the things that the other teams were exploiting in his game, that he might see a big improvement.

However, that's not the situation we're in. We're one early exit away from losing Leon Draisaitl. We're two away from losing Connor McDavid. The urgency level is so much higher now and you can't just hope that things go well - you need to show those two players that you're serious about winning and that you're doing everything you can to put them in the best position to win.

I know you probably actually understand this, but goaltenders are more important than second or third line wingers. The third line right wing rarely single-handedly wins or loses a team a series. We've seen this year how a goalie can do both - Bobrovsky is the entire reason the Panthers made the finals as they have been outshot in almost every game. Meanwhile, Skinner is the single biggest reason the Oilers are out.

Worth noting, I was beating the drum pretty hard to get an additional top-six winger this year at the trade deadline, because I didn't think that top-six was good enough and I felt it lacked any depth if we had any of the top guys banged up. I was pretty clearly right about that too.

But while adding a JVR wouldn't have guaranteed us getting past Vegas, getting a goaltender who could at least keep up with the Knights fourth-stringer would have made a heck of a big difference.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824171 is a reply to message #824169 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 09:54

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:44

But while adding a JVR wouldn't have guaranteed us getting past Vegas, getting a goaltender who could at least keep up with the Knights fourth-stringer would have made a heck of a big difference.

I still think Adin Hill was actually pretty good on an awful San Jose team last year and he's being undersold as a fourth-stringer. He was clearly ahead of Quick and Broissert was always a concern. At absolute worst he was a serviceable third-string with potential. The kind of depth acquisition a smart team makes just in case, you know? The alternative to just saying Logan and Broissert would probably be good enough so why not just stand pat and wait for Robin Lehner to come back. It might have won Vegas a Stanley Cup.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824173 is a reply to message #824171 ]	Wed, 07 June 2023 10:50

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:54

Adam wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 09:44

But while adding a JVR wouldn't have guaranteed us getting past Vegas, getting a goaltender who could at least keep up with the Knights fourth-stringer would have made a heck of a big difference.

And even having all those guys they STILL acquired Quick to see if there was any juice left to squeeze there (although quickly determined that no, there was not).

Vegas has done a nice job in not staying married to any mistakes, and to constantly backfill behind their top players so when they miss Mark Stone for months, some of those potentially only because his salary was useful for them, they don't miss a beat. We had guys in here who didn't want to play Campbell at all in the last 15 games of the season because they were concerned it would kill our chances at top spot - the Knights voluntarily played without one of their top guys and still won the Western Conference. That's the value of depth.

If Draisaitl missed 2-3 months, can the Oilers backfill and rally around that? I think we'd just be praying that McDavid went supernova for that period of time, while the coaching staff played him 26 minutes a night.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824207 is a reply to message #824173 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 14:48

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Looking at the Oilers lines that played in the playoffs. I think they need more guys who bring more intensity on the forecheck. Watching Vegas play the Oilers, Vegas forwards were on the Oilers defense from line 1-4 all the time.

For the top 6: Kane, Hyman, McD, Drai, Leon will all be there for sure.

I'd like to see Woody get away completely from loading up McD and Drai because Nuge to me has proved he can't be a second line center. He's a winger.

Yamo. He needs to be gone. I think they need to bring in a right winger that is a bit bigger than Yamo just for durability. Yamo himself says at his size he takes head shots every game so that's a concern. I also think the winger needs to be able to skate and gets in on the forecheck hard. Yamo isn't that guy in my opinion especially at his size. Kane can forecheck, Hyman can, Nuge doesn't. So they need another winger in the top 6 that forechecks fairly consistently to keep the pressure up.

Top 6 lines.
Kane - McD - Hyman
Nuge - Drai - RW

They could flip around wingers if they want.

Bottom 6. They definitely need more guys that get in hard on the forecheck with a bit of size. I watched Vegas against the Oilers and pretty much their entire bottom 6 are big, skate hard and are constantly pressure you. Some are more physical than others but Vegas guys are always pressuring. I think the Oilers need more of that.

Kostin I think gets resigned. He's found a home and I think he would be crazy to leave. He's big, physical, forechecks hard and I think he has more offensive ability than Carrier or Kolesar. They need to play him 10 mins a night.
McLeod will be here. I have said it before. At his size with his speed, he can't be turning away from guys. He needs to be constantly on players. He doesn't have to hammer then but just don't turn away like he does. Based on an interview sounds like he knows he needs to do that. I hope it happens.

Those 2 are for sure here.

Bjugstad - I'd have him back but I think some crappy team will offer him more money. They need to replace him with a center, preferably a right shot with someone that has size, gets in on the forecheck and wins draws.

Foegele - When he plays well, he is what they need. He just doesn't bring it enough. I would look to ship him out.

Janmark - I would be OK if he was back. He was good on the PK, brings some bottom 6 offense, very reliable defensively. I'd sign him for a little less than what he makes now.

Ryan - I would bring him back in the Shore role. Your 13th forward but he shouldn't be an every day guy.

I would give Holloway Foegele's spot on the 3rd line. Holloway is big, fast, gets in on the forecheck, doesn't shy away from a hit and has skill. I would tell him that's his spot full time. Get after it. Don't slow down, pressure, pressure, pressure.

Bottom 6:
Holloway - McLeod - Janmark (or someone else)
Kostin - Center - RW

Perfect world, that center is Bjugstad but I don't think he is here. The 2 guys missing have to be fast, have a little size and they have to be aggressive on the forecheck. Maybe that RW is Lavoie. I know he can shoot but I haven't seen him enough to know if he is aggressive on the forecheck.

Being physical is a nice bonus but most importantly, they just need more guys with a little more size and speed who are relentless on pressure. SO when the opposing D go to get the puck they are having to hustle back looking over their shoulder worrying they are about to get hit or severely pressure. Too many guys on the Oilers pulling up at the hash marks when they see the dman is first to the puck.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824209 is a reply to message #824207 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 16:07

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 13:48

Looking at the Oilers lines that played in the playoffs. I think they need more guys who bring more intensity on the forecheck...I think they need to bring in a right winger that is a bit bigger than Yamo just for durability...I also think the winger needs to be able to skate and gets in on the forecheck hard...So they need another winger in the top 6 that forechecks fairly consistently to keep the pressure up...They definitely need more guys that get in hard on the forecheck with a bit of size...big, physical, forechecks hard...is big, fast, gets in on the forecheck, doesn't shy away from a hit and has skill...The 2 guys missing have to be fast, have a little size and they have to be aggressive on the forecheck...Being physical is a nice bonus but most importantly, they just need more guys with a little more size and speed who are relentless on pressure.

Okay, hear me out, this sounds a lot like...Jesse Puljujarvi.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824210 is a reply to message #824209 ]	Thu, 08 June 2023 16:34

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Goose wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 16:07

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 08 June 2023 13:48

Okay, hear me out, this sounds a lot like...Jesse Puljujarvi.

I want a player who can hopefully contribute more than 5 goals playing on McD's wing. He also needs to know how to play NHL hockey on a consistent basis not look clueless for long stretches and get in on the forecheck all the time, not sometimes.

So if you can take Yamo's scrappiness and put it into JP's body, then you have yourself a player. But as the 2 of them are constructed right now, either can do the job.

I know many don't like to hear truth but JP unless something drastic changes in him, he looks like a 12/13 forward who will be dominate in a European league.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824224 is a reply to message #824156 ]	Mon, 12 June 2023 15:59

inverno76
Messages: 2141
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Mike wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 07:11

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 07 June 2023 02:41

NetBOG wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 22:23

Mike wrote on Tue, 06 June 2023 19:32

Rumours we traded for Carter Hart? This is one link, but there are many out there. Anyone hear anything about this?

https://www.flyersinsider.com/If-The-Flyers-Trade-Carter-Har t-Are-The-Edmonton-Oilers-Front-Runners-243678

Ugh, 2 future 1sts for a goalie coming off a bounce back after two bad years? This team has already cleaned all the elite prospects out, and doesn't have last or this years 1st round pick. At some point even the 'sell everything to win now' people have to get some common sense.

Selling the farm for a goalie just smells like back-fire.. IMHO goalie position is so flaky/voodoo.. high risk.. if you could guarantee he'd play elite .. maybe.. but too many past examples of inconsistent goalie performances year to year..

Several Flyer fan friends were convinced Hart was the next Hasek after his first 2 seasons. He looked fine those first 2 seasons, but there's not much about his last 2 years that would make me want to give up anything of substance for him. Hart had better numbers than Campbell this year, but the 2 years prior (20-21 and 21-22), Campbell had much better numbers than Hart:

22-23: Hart .907%, 2.94GAA; Campbell .888%, 3.41GAA
21-22: Hart .905%, 3.16GAA; Campbell .914%, 2.64GAA
20-21: Hart .877%, 3.67GAA; Campbell .921%, 2.15GAA

Interesting to note while looking at stats that Jack Campbell had the best save % in this year's playoffs at .961, and best GAA with 1.01. Woodcroft really should have started him for game 6 after Skinner was pulled in games 3 and 5. Oh well.

Anyway - as for trading for Hart. If it was just to get out from under Campbell's contract, sure, maybe. But I think/hope Campbell will be better this year, and again, after those first 2 years, Hart has been pretty pedestrian. Though some of that could be the crap team in front of him and at 24 the potential is still there for him to become an elite starter, I would not be prepared to hitch my wagon to him, especially not at the expected acquisition cost.

Campbell probably should have got a shot in the playoffs, but I can see why he did not. I thought he looked pretty shaky in his games even though he was able to keep the puck out of the net and what would have knowing prior to game time that he was starting have done to his psyche?

Mentally, he appears to be shakier than most goalies.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824225 is a reply to message #824110 ]	Mon, 12 June 2023 16:22

inverno76
Messages: 2141
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Why did I ever take a hiatus?

Adam, CrusaderPi and RDOF are in mid-season form. Beautiful stuff men. Well worth the read.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824226 is a reply to message #824225 ]	Mon, 12 June 2023 16:25

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:22

Why did I ever take a hiatus?

Adam, CrusaderPi and RDOF are in mid-season form. Beautiful stuff men. Well worth the read.

The devil's threesome planned all year to peak for the cup finals, then the cup finals were delayed for two months and we had nothing to talk about.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824234 is a reply to message #824226 ]	Tue, 13 June 2023 13:57

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:25

inverno76 wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:22

Why did I ever take a hiatus?

Adam, CrusaderPi and RDOF are in mid-season form. Beautiful stuff men. Well worth the read.

The devil's threesome planned all year to peak for the cup finals, then the cup finals were delayed for two months and we had nothing to talk about.

And just as we hit our rhythm, the league has another multiple day break during the Cup Finals and it's +30 and everyone's interest in hockey just dies off completely.

Ah well, only 13 days until the All-Oilers themed NHL Awards Show!!! HOORAY!

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824237 is a reply to message #824234 ]	Tue, 13 June 2023 14:41

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 June 2023 13:57

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:25

inverno76 wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:22

Why did I ever take a hiatus?

Adam, CrusaderPi and RDOF are in mid-season form. Beautiful stuff men. Well worth the read.

The devil's threesome planned all year to peak for the cup finals, then the cup finals were delayed for two months and we had nothing to talk about.

I've got 3:1 odds on Holland winning GM of the year.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824239 is a reply to message #824237 ]	Tue, 13 June 2023 15:08

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 June 2023 14:41

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 June 2023 13:57

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:25

inverno76 wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:22

Why did I ever take a hiatus?

Adam, CrusaderPi and RDOF are in mid-season form. Beautiful stuff men. Well worth the read.

The devil's threesome planned all year to peak for the cup finals, then the cup finals were delayed for two months and we had nothing to talk about.

I've got 3:1 odds on Holland winning GM of the year.

Sadly, he didn't even get nominated, despite all his hard work over 12-15 days out of the past year.

Quote:

Stars, Bruins, Panthers executives vie for honor to be announced at 2023 NHL Draft. Jim Nill of the Dallas Stars, Don Sweeney of the Boston Bruins and Bill Zito of the Florida
Panthers are the finalists for the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award.

I definitely have some questions as to how Zito gets the nomination given that his team went from President's Trophy Winners last year to needing help to make the dance this season. This is a kind of stupid trophy though. It gets voted on after the first two rounds of the playoffs are over, so there's some pressure to pick one of the finalists each year. Sweeney obviously gets the nod due to the President's Trophy.

If we'd beaten the Knights, I think there's an excellent chance that Holland would have undeservedly taken the hardware.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824241 is a reply to message #824239 ]	Tue, 13 June 2023 15:20

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 June 2023 15:08

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 June 2023 14:41

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 June 2023 13:57

CrusaderPi wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:25

inverno76 wrote on Mon, 12 June 2023 16:22

Why did I ever take a hiatus?

Adam, CrusaderPi and RDOF are in mid-season form. Beautiful stuff men. Well worth the read.

The devil's threesome planned all year to peak for the cup finals, then the cup finals were delayed for two months and we had nothing to talk about.

I've got 3:1 odds on Holland winning GM of the year.

Sadly, he didn't even get nominated, despite all his hard work over 12-15 days out of the past year.

Quote:

That's just bad luck for it to come down to a couple of loses in what became a 3 game series.

I like the stones Treliving and Zito showed drastically changing their teams on the fly when it was obvious their mix was wrong. But, considering point totals I find it hard to reward one without the other. I'm not sure what Dallas did that was all that exciting, but Jason Robertson is a good player and watching the reanimated corpse of Jamie Benn was fun (until their last series). I'd give it to Boston for getting creative and rolling the dice. It didn't work, but it's hard to say they didn't have a good regular season.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824296 is a reply to message #824110 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 12:37

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3925
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

3 Cups

Alex Formenton

I'm wondering if Alex Formenton can be had from Ottawa.. he's big, skilled, and a speed demon.. refused to take Senators RFA offer last season.. clock ran out end of December and he wasn't allowed to play in the NHL.. signed in Europe.. he'd be a good get that could likely compete for a roster spot right now.
Interesting to see what the relationship is between the new ownership and Formenton and whether they bury the hatchet.. or not.. :)

6'-3" 200lbs.
Speed
Skill
Shot

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/273622/alex-formenton

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824297 is a reply to message #824296 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 13:01

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 12:37

Was part of the reason he didn't sign/play was because he was part of the investigation around that World Juniors thing from a few years ago?

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824298 is a reply to message #824297 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 14:31

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 13:01

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 12:37

Was part of the reason he didn't sign/play was because he was part of the investigation around that World Juniors thing from a few years ago?

Potentially. It's conjecture though and certainly, there are others who are involved who are almost certainly on NHL teams - teams that likely are aware of their involvement.

https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/hockey-canada-scand al-sexual-assault-2018-world-juniors-team/hhc54xdapaqx5l29ku imp09g

Quote:

The following players have stated that they have fully cooperated with the investigation but declined to comment further: Boris Katchouk, Drake Batherson and Michael McLeod.

Alex Formenton is the lone player that has not made any comments to date.

I also dislike the way this has been framed by the media lumping all the players denials together. Cale Makar said specifically that he is not one of the 8 players involved. Max Comtois too said "I was not involved in any way with the alleged abuse and as far as I know, no one has ever suggested otherwise.

You compare that to Carter Hart, who has said nothing himself, but who's agent said that Hart (and a couple others) engaged in no criminal wrongdoing...that's a big difference. Asked about it, Hart's only said that he can't talk about it. He's never personally denied involvement.

Now, people can lie. There's no consequence to a false twitter statement so Makar saying it wasn't him doesn't necessarily clear him, but I think these guys all know that there's a good chance that this comes out, so a patently false claim is only going to make someone look bad. For Hart, the lawyer's statement is a hedge. He's said nothing, denied nothing. A lawyer's statement is not admissable in any court. And even for the lawyer, if Hart was later outed here, he could maintain that he didn't believe it was criminal - especially since the earlier police investigation resulted in no charges being pressed.

Anyhow, Formenton definitely has the cloud of suspicion hanging over him. That would make him a lot riskier to sign, although the Oilers have shown time and again that they're not too concerned about that stuff, and we have Bobby "Slush Fund" Nicholson ready to clean up after any unsavoury actions here.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824299 is a reply to message #824296 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 15:04

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 12:37

I would do my due diligence on him. He's supposedly has good speed, good on the forecheck and has a good shot. He scored 18 goals for the Sens. Being that he didn't play in the NHL, I am sure he would look to go to a team that will give him a chance to play and pad the stats to get a better deal but on a 1 year, you might get him for cheap just to get back in the league.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824301 is a reply to message #824299 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 15:35

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3925
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

3 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 14:04

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 12:37

He's got elite speed, and shot.. I'd go get him. Sens low-balled him last year.. hopefully it created a bad relationship, and he doesn't want back with them.. and Sens have to sell low(er).. :)

Kinda like a Ryan McLeod, but with a shot, skill, smarts, and more physicality..

Here is a write up about Formenton from an Ottawa writer in 2021..
https://www.silversevensens.com/alex-formenton-is-a-swiss-ar my-knife-on-skates-early-2022-analysis-formenton-ottawa-sena tors/

Quote:

Alex Formenton is a Swiss Army Knife on Skates
There’s more to this kid than just his speed.

Looking back at the Ottawa Senators’ draft class of 2017, you can draw a variety of conflicting opinions. On one hand, they selected Shane Bowers 28th overall, the only first-round pick from that year who has yet to play an NHL game. On the other hand, the value they’ve gotten out of a couple of key players has far exceeded that of the four picks with which they went into the draft.

Fourth-rounder Drake Batherson immediately comes to mind, primarily because he’s become arguably Ottawa’s best player at the moment and the best late-round steal since Daniel Alfredsson.

As for Alex Formenton, the team’s second-round selection that year, there’s still plenty of intrigue around what he’ll be in the NHL long-term. You may recall that the 6’2 left winger wasn’t originally Ottawa’s pick; the second-rounder used on him was acquired in the prior trade deadline from the Calgary Flames in exchange for former first-round pick Curtis Lazar. It’s safe to say the deal has aged very well for Ottawa, as the moderate success Lazar has had as a depth forward has come after the end of his unimpressive stint with the Flames.

Quote:

While he’s known for his blazing speed, it can overshadow a few of his other strengths. Former head coach Guy Boucher drawing comparisons to Connor McDavid was pretty silly, but Formenton’s also better than the league-minimum depth players the Edmonton Oilers would throw onto a line with McDavid back when Peter Chiarelli was in charge.

A glance at some of his highlight packs could give you an impression that his inability to finish on his chances is a big flaw in his game, but his shooting percentage of 14.3 doesn’t fit that narrative. A breakaway is far from the only way to create high-danger opportunities, yet it stands out in memory as an epic showdown between goalie and shooter, which could lead one to believe that Formenton generates more chances than he actually does. While we’ve certainly seen him create chances off of sustained pressure, or by forcing turnovers in the offensive zone, it’s not the case that Formenton is missing a boatload of opportunities.

We can see this through the use of HockeyViz’s heatmaps. Regular readers will be familiar with these visualizations, but for those who need an introduction or refresher:

These are maps of the offensive zone, with the grey box near the top representing the net. Wherever you see red on the map, that’s an area where the team is generating more shots than the average team. Blue areas denote the opposite — fewer shots than the league average. The above chart shows the team performance while Formenton is on the ice, specifically, they mostly attack from in close and around the net, which lines up with his supposed affinity for chances off the rush, while heavily struggling to get pucks on net from other areas. To me, it suggests an inability to frequently enter the attacking zone, favouring quality over quantity.

This second chart shows how they’re doing while he’s off the ice. You’ll notice a lower amount of saturation of either colour as opposed to the first chart — this is generally because, over a larger sample size, the focus on any specific point on the map will decrease. In this case, it’s not obvious which chart is showing the better results, fortunately, HockeyViz also gives us exact xG rates to show us that the team does slightly better without Formenton while in the offensive zone. He’s a positive influence at the other end of the ice, however, as the team’s 5-on-5 xGA/60 is slightly better with him (2.77) than without him (2.86).

As alluded to before, Formenton has been on a bit of a heater with 7 points in his last 8 games, and there’s an argument to be made that he’s now been given the perfect opportunity by head coach D.J. Smith to make sure he stays hot — a spot on the team’s second line with Tim Stützle and Connor Brown.

In comparison, his most common linemates this year have been Chris Tierney and Tyler Ennis. The former hasn’t been up to the task of generating primary assists recently, which have been his one consistent contribution to the team over the past three seasons. Ennis is a more reliable source of secondary scoring, but I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Formenton either. I’ll bet that whenever you notice Ennis, nine out of ten times it’s when he’s got the puck along the boards, quickly changing directions every couple of seconds. He’s great at maintaining possession in the offensive zone, and a similar player like Nick Paul might be a better fit with him and make their line more successful at keeping opposing scoring threats pinned in their own end.

As for Formenton, since the best way to utilize his strengths is to maximize his opportunity to create rush chances, placing him on Stützle’s wing is a good idea in theory, because Stützle is currently the Senators’ best defensive forward, which means they’re completing successful zone exits and zone entries more often while he’s on the ice. Also, the idea of a decent shooter being set up by this guy is pretty awesome:

Formenton’s value doesn’t stop with his even-strength play. D.J. Smith had recently stated that the team’s focus would shift towards the development of young players, but Formenton was one such player who had been trusted with a key role long before — that being on the penalty kill. Along with Paul, Brown, Austin Watson, and Dylan Gambrell, Formenton has been heavily relied on by Smith to be an integral part of a unit that’s yielded...unimpressive results to say the least.

[Updated on: Wed, 14 June 2023 16:34]

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824303 is a reply to message #824301 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 17:14

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 15:35

He's got elite speed, and shot.. I'd go get him.

And what if it was an open secret that he's John Doe #1 in that Team Canada thing?

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824305 is a reply to message #824303 ]	Wed, 14 June 2023 17:35

inverno76
Messages: 2141
Registered: September 2005
Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 17:14

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 15:35

He's got elite speed, and shot.. I'd go get him.

And what if it was an open secret that he's John Doe #1 in that Team Canada thing?

Then you don’t touch him. I have a hard time believing that the names of players involved are not common knowledge in NHL circles. The only reason they’re not outed already is one, it’s in the courts and two, protecting the NHL brand.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824308 is a reply to message #824305 ]	Thu, 15 June 2023 08:24

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3736
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 17:35

Adam wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 17:14

Skookum Jim wrote on Wed, 14 June 2023 15:35

He's got elite speed, and shot.. I'd go get him.

And what if it was an open secret that he's John Doe #1 in that Team Canada thing?

I completely agree with you. I am sure whatever has happened is known by NHL teams or at least enough to know whether a player is worth going after or not.

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824322 is a reply to message #824110 ]	Thu, 15 June 2023 13:23

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Pretty devastating exchange between Tyler Yaremchuk and Frank Seravelli about how, despite being a high revenue team and having one of the highest ticket prices in the league, the Oilers have one of the smallest front offices.

Honestly, could probably build 3 full analytics departments with what they are paying Nicholson. The Oilers are not serious about winning, that much is pretty clear.

https://twitter.com/OilersNation/status/1669088623751462913? s=20

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824323 is a reply to message #824322 ]	Thu, 15 June 2023 13:29

Adam
Messages: 6844
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Goose wrote on Thu, 15 June 2023 13:23

I heard that comment from Ken Holland last week and I thought, that can't be right...they can't just not have a scout for the OHL, can they??? But we love the top-heavy look. We have three assistant GMs, and then we only have three professional scouts, and only two part-timers in the analytics department.

We do have the highest paid GM in the league in Holland, so maybe they thought he could do all the jobs?

Also - what's the going rate for Vice Chairs, special advisors (Coffey) and whatever the hell position Messier had/has?

[Updated on: Thu, 15 June 2023 13:38]

Report message to a moderator

Re: 2023 - The Summer of Ken [message #824326 is a reply to message #824323 ]	Thu, 15 June 2023 13:48

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7647
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 15 June 2023 13:29

Goose wrote on Thu, 15 June 2023 13:23

The Oilers stopped being a hockey team several years ago. Their primary functions have been marketing first, real estate second, for at least as long as Katz has been running the team, probably longer. From all accounts they've done pretty well in these ventures. The hockey side of the business is a simple means to an end now.

[Updated on: Thu, 15 June 2023 13:51]

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

Report message to a moderator

Pages (6): [ « < 1 2 3 4 5 6 > »]

Previous Topic:	Adios Staios?
Next Topic:	Draisatl Extension

Oilers

NHL

Minors

Speculation

For Sale

Copyright © OilFans.com 1996-2022.
All content is property of OilFans.com and cannot be used without expressed, written consent from this site.
Questions, comments and suggestions can be directed to oilfans@OilFans.com
Privacy Statement

Hosted by LogicalHosting.ca