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 Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790876]
Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52 Go to next message
Skookum Jim is currently online Skookum Jim
Messages: 7287
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

6 Cups

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790883 is a reply to message #790876 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 13:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20289
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790892 is a reply to message #790883 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently online Skookum Jim
Messages: 7287
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790895 is a reply to message #790892 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 15:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 3519
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

3 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.


Also won't matter in year 8 with McD and Draisaitl off the books.

Other than waiting a year, I don't know that there's a good answer for what to do with Nurse. The market has been set (high for some reason) and he's coming off a good season. You won't replace him because the team can't even get an even return on a trade. I guess you just pay the bill and then blame the lack of Cups in the McDavid era on cap issues.



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790896 is a reply to message #790892 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 15:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 16774
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



It's a fallacy to think you can keep signing bad deals in the hopes that the cap keeps moving up. As we've seen, when things tighten up, that causes all kinds of issues. The fact that we've so rarely had many (any?) value contracts has been a significant impediment to us when it comes to solving some of our problems over the last few years.

The Oilers need to stop counting on future cap increases to save their bacon, and become better at negotiating contracts - first and foremost by finding other levers besides dollars and term to pull.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790897 is a reply to message #790896 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 15:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrudeRemarks  is currently offline CrudeRemarks
Messages: 3519
Registered: November 2010
Location: Edmonton

3 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 15:19

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



It's a fallacy to think you can keep signing bad deals in the hopes that the cap keeps moving up. As we've seen, when things tighten up, that causes all kinds of issues. The fact that we've so rarely had many (any?) value contracts has been a significant impediment to us when it comes to solving some of our problems over the last few years.

The Oilers need to stop counting on future cap increases to save their bacon, and become better at negotiating contracts - first and foremost by finding other levers besides dollars and term to pull.

Especially when you also always have dead cap space in buyouts and retained salary.



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790898 is a reply to message #790896 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 15:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 20289
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 15:19

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



It's a fallacy to think you can keep signing bad deals in the hopes that the cap keeps moving up. As we've seen, when things tighten up, that causes all kinds of issues. The fact that we've so rarely had many (any?) value contracts has been a significant impediment to us when it comes to solving some of our problems over the last few years.

The Oilers need to stop counting on future cap increases to save their bacon, and become better at negotiating contracts - first and foremost by finding other levers besides dollars and term to pull.


Isn't this discussion mainly about us fans hoping that cap increases save us from oilers management? :)

That cap is actually going up ~13.5M for us between now and 26/27 if we include our dead cap space! Even better, because I highly doubt Holland will create more dead cap now that he's done fixing Chia's mistakes.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790899 is a reply to message #790898 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 16:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 7180
Registered: January 2016

6 Cups

So the cap is going up by a mill. I guess the players are cool to go further into debt because no way revenues justify raising the cap since they are supposedly tied to revenue. Most of the Canadian teams send money to have not teams in revenue sharing and they didn't have a single fan in the stands all year. Most of the American teams had very limited fans for most of the year.

So basically current players are screwing the future guys because there is this debt that have to pay back.



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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790900 is a reply to message #790896 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 16:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently online Skookum Jim
Messages: 7287
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:19

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



It's a fallacy to think you can keep signing bad deals in the hopes that the cap keeps moving up. As we've seen, when things tighten up, that causes all kinds of issues. The fact that we've so rarely had many (any?) value contracts has been a significant impediment to us when it comes to solving some of our problems over the last few years.

The Oilers need to stop counting on future cap increases to save their bacon, and become better at negotiating contracts - first and foremost by finding other levers besides dollars and term to pull.


If it wasn't for covid and 1 1/2 years of zero fans they would be at 90M right now.
Nurse has 1 more, then he'll probably have an 8 year contract starting, he's here for nine years. Hopefully its something like an 8 something x 8, but it'll be decent value, its a hedge, you need to predict the future, and they are predicting whatever they sign will be good value between 2 to 9 years years based on predicted future cap limits.. I agree.. Check back in 9 (NINE) years.



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790902 is a reply to message #790900 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 16:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 16774
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 16:12

Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:19

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



It's a fallacy to think you can keep signing bad deals in the hopes that the cap keeps moving up. As we've seen, when things tighten up, that causes all kinds of issues. The fact that we've so rarely had many (any?) value contracts has been a significant impediment to us when it comes to solving some of our problems over the last few years.

The Oilers need to stop counting on future cap increases to save their bacon, and become better at negotiating contracts - first and foremost by finding other levers besides dollars and term to pull.


If it wasn't for covid and 1 1/2 years of zero fans they would be at 90M right now.
Nurse has 1 more, then he'll probably have an 8 year contract starting, he's here for nine years. Hopefully its something like an 8 something x 8, but it'll be decent value, its a hedge, you need to predict the future, and they are predicting whatever they sign will be good value between 2 to 9 years years based on predicted future cap limits.. I agree.. Check back in 9 (NINE) years.


Cap depends on league revenues. As we've seen - those can definitely take a major hit. I think, similarly to real estate, it's a mistake to believe it will only go up. Using that as a strategy will get you in trouble - so you can't just sign big deals thinking that in a few years they won't look so bad. Try to sign deals that look good now, wherever you can and don't just resign yourself to overpayments. The Oilers don't seem to understand that's an option.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790904 is a reply to message #790902 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 17:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 15:26



Cap depends on league revenues. As we've seen - those can definitely take a major hit. I think, similarly to real estate, it's a mistake to believe it will only go up. Using that as a strategy will get you in trouble - so you can't just sign big deals thinking that in a few years they won't look so bad. Try to sign deals that look good now, wherever you can and don't just resign yourself to overpayments. The Oilers don't seem to understand that's an option.


This is why I don't think NHL teams (or at least GMs) really think too much about the long term implications of these deals. The Lucic deal didn't become an albatross because he regressed slightly. It became an albatross because he scored 6 goals in his last season with the Oilers and that contract would have been an albatross regardless of how much the cap might have reasonably gone up.

Similarly, the risk on the Hyman deal isn't that he takes a step back in years 5-7, and is scoring 15-18 goals playing in the middle 6. Maybe at that point he's a bit of an overpay, but it's manageable. The risk is that age and style take too much of a toll on his body and he is a shadow of his former self. The risk with Nurse is the same, at $9M, he maybe doesn't need to be Norris candidate for the length of the contract but if he isn't a bonafide #1 defenceman into his early to mid-30's there's no way that the cap is going to increase enough to make that a good value contract in year's 5-8.

And this isn't an Oilers exclusive problem. We've seen what defencemen have gone for this offseason, and that's how the Oilers ended up with 38 year old Duncan Keith for 2 years at $5.5M. I think GMs just think that if these deals blow up, they can solve those problems later (or, more likely it will be someone else's problem).

Overall, I think you have to do it if you want to keep Nurse, even though I have some strong reservations about going that high on cap hit given how much his production seems to depend on playing with McDavid. With Hyman, again, there's probably higher risk given his age, but he should make the team better in the first 2-3 years at least (unless he's Lucic 2.0, in which case...let's not even go there).

I have more of an issue with giving a 3rd pair defenceman a 4 year deal or trading a young, cheap RHD for depth scoring when there were comparable options that went for far less.

[Updated on: Thu, 05 August 2021 18:42]


Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790905 is a reply to message #790902 ]
Thu, 05 August 2021 18:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim is currently online Skookum Jim
Messages: 7287
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 15:26

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 16:12

Adam wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:19

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 14:53

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:59

Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 12:52

NetBOG wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:27

Skookum Jim wrote on Fri, 23 July 2021 04:10

I've started to look at Hymans impending signing at a different angle, in the case its a long term contract (7 or 8), and Hyman isn't able provide full value in years 7 or 8.

1. If his play falls off a cliff, you can always buy him out.

Assuming 8 year contract at $5.125M, buying him out in year 7, cap hit is $1.7M x 4 years.
A buy out in year 6 is $1.7M x 6 years

2. In 6 years the cap could be $95M, or more, $1.7M would represent 1.8% of the cap, not much of an impact.

3. If his injury history eventually becomes an issue, and gets injured long term.. LTIR... cap comes back.. D. Katz's money goes out.


The cap isn't going up much if at all in the next 6 years. The current players got stupid and greedy and demanded all their money last season so the % of revenue was way out of balance. Supposedly, it won't be fixed until the next CBA which will have to have profit recapture built in to make the owners whole.


Good News! Here is an estimated NHL cap projection from Frank Seravalli at Daily Faceoff..
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/seravalli-nhl-salary-cap-projec ted-to-rise-to-82-5-million-in-2022-23/
In 6 years projected to be $91.4 M .. I expect it will probably go higher as time and spending increases...
Good news for our contracts like Hyman, RNH, and soon to be Nurse! :)

Quote:

SEASON PROJ. SALARY CAP PROJ. REVENUE ENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22 $81.5 MILLION $4.8 BILLION $1.3 BILLION
2022-23 $82.5 MILLION $5.4 BILLION $0.98 BILLION
2023-24 $83.5 MILLION $5.6 BILLION $0.63 BILLION
2024-25 $84.5 MILLION $5.8 BILLION $0.20 BILLION
2025-26 $85.5 MILLION $6 BILLION PAID OFF
2026-27 $91.4 MILLION $6.2 BILLION N/A



McDavid's contract expiring at the right time I guess. Hopefully the numbers end up quite a bit better than that. Maybe we should all be cheering for currency inflation :)


I think in this context, the contract for Hyman especially looks less risky with respect to cap hit. Same with Nurse, as I expect it to be a doozy, which when based on todays cap limit will look like a lot. If Nurse gets 8 years, I'm sure it won't by year 8.



It's a fallacy to think you can keep signing bad deals in the hopes that the cap keeps moving up. As we've seen, when things tighten up, that causes all kinds of issues. The fact that we've so rarely had many (any?) value contracts has been a significant impediment to us when it comes to solving some of our problems over the last few years.

The Oilers need to stop counting on future cap increases to save their bacon, and become better at negotiating contracts - first and foremost by finding other levers besides dollars and term to pull.


If it wasn't for covid and 1 1/2 years of zero fans they would be at 90M right now.
Nurse has 1 more, then he'll probably have an 8 year contract starting, he's here for nine years. Hopefully its something like an 8 something x 8, but it'll be decent value, its a hedge, you need to predict the future, and they are predicting whatever they sign will be good value between 2 to 9 years years based on predicted future cap limits.. I agree.. Check back in 9 (NINE) years.


Cap depends on league revenues. As we've seen - those can definitely take a major hit. I think, similarly to real estate, it's a mistake to believe it will only go up. Using that as a strategy will get you in trouble - so you can't just sign big deals thinking that in a few years they won't look so bad. Try to sign deals that look good now, wherever you can and don't just resign yourself to overpayments. The Oilers don't seem to understand that's an option.


Owners can't control their spending, never have, its in their nature, IMO they will change the rules to suit their predicament, if everyone is cap stretched, they will manipulate cap/revenue formulas to suit their requirements and increase the cap, which will be in total agreement with the NHLPA.



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 Re: Future NHL Cap Projections [message #790914 is a reply to message #790905 ]
Fri, 06 August 2021 09:50 Go to previous message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
Messages: 16774
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

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Skookum Jim wrote on Thu, 05 August 2021 18:31


Owners can't control their spending, never have, its in their nature, IMO they will change the rules to suit their predicament, if everyone is cap stretched, they will manipulate cap/revenue formulas to suit their requirements and increase the cap, which will be in total agreement with the NHLPA.



The problem with that is that our team is one of the least imaginative and creative when it comes to solving cap problems. We rigidly play by the rules and seem baffled by the tricks that others do - in most cases, we don't even copy the manipulations after others have blazed the trail, never mind coming up with our own solutions.

That means that bad contracts put us at more of a disadvantage than just about any other team in the league. I mean, we have almost $4.1MM in dead cap space to deal with next year. In our division, the only teams that are even close to that are the woeful Los Angeles Kings (buyout of Phaneuf, termination penalty for Richards and retained salary on Jeff Carter) and the Vancouver Canucks (buyout of Holtby & Virtanen, but mostly recapture penalty from Luongo).

If you think (as I do) that the rival for top spot in the division is the Golden Knights, well, they have zero dead space, so they can afford to spend over $4MM more than the Oilers right off the bat. That can buy you significant depth.

As Goose says, I think the Oilers are over a barrel on Nurse. We're going to need to pay him, and long-term is probably better than short-term. But man, I'd be pushing him hard that anything he's willing to give up really helps the team in the long-run, so if he doesn't take top dollar it makes a huge difference.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55


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