The very definition of insanity is doing the exact same thing expecting different results.

Generally Disappointed.

"Bah Gawd! Would somebody stop the damn draft!"

- Jim Ross calling the NHL Draft Lotto 2015 as the Oilers win

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 09:20

WhoreableGuy wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 10:11 RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 19 December 2018 16:16 Seeing lots of tweets about last nights game and the stats guys complaining. A reason why I sometimes have a hard time buying into the stats community and some of the stuff they put out. Woodguy- big time Oilers stats guy who is very vocal - tweeting about how the Oilers need to take Chiasson off the top line because they aren't scoring enough. McDavid is on a 118 pt pace. Leon is on a 98 pt pace. Chiasson has 15 goals so may end up with mid 20's in goals which is good, top line production from the 3rd guy on the line. #1, who else is there. #2, How much more can they seriously think they can score? 2 guys with close too or over 100 pts and the 3rd guy with mid 20's in goals isn't enough? I don't see why Rattie shouldn't get a few games back on the top line like Chaisson. The guy knows how to play with McDavid, I'm just not sure that Hitch would He's not useful on the bottom 6, Chiasson was at least still scoring not playing with McDavid. I think it would balance the lines more. I agree. That is why when I saw Woodguy post that Chiasson shouldn't be on the top line, I didn't get it. There will be 2 guys at or well past 100 pts and the 3rd wheel on the line probably scoring mid 20's in goals and that isn't enough?

I don't want to speak for Woodguy, but that's not exactly what he said.

I'm assuming that this is the tweet you were referencing:

Quote:

@Woodguy55: Hitch has to change out Chiasson on the top line. The only reason their GF% hasn't tanked is due to .950 goaltending behind them. The rest of the results are really bad when you consider its McDavid and Drai out there:

The usual caveat about small sample sizes and such, but those underlying numbers aren't good. His point isn't specifically that they aren't scoring enough, but that without a .950 save percentage behind them, they would likely be giving up more goals than they are scoring, which isn't okay.

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075419767169642497

And later on in the thread, he posted this:

Quote:

@Woodguy55: 3.59 with Chiasson and 4.59 w/o him.

Those are GF/60 rates, so they are actually scoring less with Chiasson than without him. I haven't dug into the numbers at all, so there may be some usage things going on there. And that 4.59 number will include some time with RNH, so it may make more sense to spread out the scoring more.

https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075421138593824769

But it's the top numbers that are more concerning. It doesn't matter how much that line is scoring if they're on the ice for more goals against than they score, this team is not going to make up that difference from the bottom 12.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 December 2018 10:58]

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 11:07

Goose wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 10:55 RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 09:20 WhoreableGuy wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 10:11 RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 19 December 2018 16:16 Seeing lots of tweets about last nights game and the stats guys complaining. A reason why I sometimes have a hard time buying into the stats community and some of the stuff they put out. Woodguy- big time Oilers stats guy who is very vocal - tweeting about how the Oilers need to take Chiasson off the top line because they aren't scoring enough. McDavid is on a 118 pt pace. Leon is on a 98 pt pace. Chiasson has 15 goals so may end up with mid 20's in goals which is good, top line production from the 3rd guy on the line. #1, who else is there. #2, How much more can they seriously think they can score? 2 guys with close too or over 100 pts and the 3rd guy with mid 20's in goals isn't enough? I don't see why Rattie shouldn't get a few games back on the top line like Chaisson. The guy knows how to play with McDavid, I'm just not sure that Hitch would He's not useful on the bottom 6, Chiasson was at least still scoring not playing with McDavid. I think it would balance the lines more. I agree. That is why when I saw Woodguy post that Chiasson shouldn't be on the top line, I didn't get it. There will be 2 guys at or well past 100 pts and the 3rd wheel on the line probably scoring mid 20's in goals and that isn't enough? I don't want to speak for Woodguy, but that's not exactly what he said. I'm assuming that this is the tweet you were referencing: Quote: @Woodguy55: Hitch has to change out Chiasson on the top line. The only reason their GF% hasn't tanked is due to .950 goaltending behind them. The rest of the results are really bad when you consider its McDavid and Drai out there: The usual caveat about small sample sizes and such, but those underlying numbers aren't good. His point isn't specifically that they aren't scoring enough, but that without a .950 save percentage behind them, they would likely be giving up more goals than they are scoring, which isn't okay. https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075419767169642497 And later on in the thread, he posted this: Quote: @Woodguy55: 3.59 with Chiasson and 4.59 w/o him. Those are GF/60 rates, so they are actually scoring less with Chiasson than without him. I haven't dug into the numbers at all, so there may be some usage things going on there. And that 4.59 number will include some time with RNH, so it may make more sense to spread out the scoring more. https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075421138593824769 But it's the top numbers that are more concerning. It doesn't matter how much that line is scoring if they're on the ice for more goals against than they score, this team is not going to make up that difference from the bottom 12. Well in my opinion, that's the fault of McDavid and Leon, not Chiasson. You see McDavid and Leon cheating for offense all the time. McDavid is the best, fastest player in the NHL by a lot and how many times do we see McDavid's guy going free with McDavid cruising behind? In all seriousness, what player can't McDavid keep up with and out skill to steal a puck from? So he should be able to be in the hip pocket of every player he lines up against but he's not. I feel dirty to say anything remotely negative about McDavid but he's the key to that line.

I actually don't think that line has looked that effective recently. They haven't been dominating like they were earlier in the year. It could be Chiasson, it could be fatigue from over-playing those guys, but something likely has to change.

In this morning's practice, it appears that it's Chiasson that Hitchcock elected to change:

Quote:

Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer RNH-McDavid-Puljujarvi Rieder-Draisaitl-Chiasson Caggiula-Brodziak-Kassian Lucic-Khaira (susp)-Rattie Spooner likely in for Khaira, Zykov

Also - Lucic practicing on the fourth line...If he skates with Rattie and Spooner, he may set a new low in ice time next game. Does he even get 10 minutes?

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Adam wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 11:15

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 11:07 Goose wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 10:55 RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 09:20 WhoreableGuy wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 10:11 RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 19 December 2018 16:16 Seeing lots of tweets about last nights game and the stats guys complaining. A reason why I sometimes have a hard time buying into the stats community and some of the stuff they put out. Woodguy- big time Oilers stats guy who is very vocal - tweeting about how the Oilers need to take Chiasson off the top line because they aren't scoring enough. McDavid is on a 118 pt pace. Leon is on a 98 pt pace. Chiasson has 15 goals so may end up with mid 20's in goals which is good, top line production from the 3rd guy on the line. #1, who else is there. #2, How much more can they seriously think they can score? 2 guys with close too or over 100 pts and the 3rd guy with mid 20's in goals isn't enough? I don't see why Rattie shouldn't get a few games back on the top line like Chaisson. The guy knows how to play with McDavid, I'm just not sure that Hitch would He's not useful on the bottom 6, Chiasson was at least still scoring not playing with McDavid. I think it would balance the lines more. I agree. That is why when I saw Woodguy post that Chiasson shouldn't be on the top line, I didn't get it. There will be 2 guys at or well past 100 pts and the 3rd wheel on the line probably scoring mid 20's in goals and that isn't enough? I don't want to speak for Woodguy, but that's not exactly what he said. I'm assuming that this is the tweet you were referencing: Quote: @Woodguy55: Hitch has to change out Chiasson on the top line. The only reason their GF% hasn't tanked is due to .950 goaltending behind them. The rest of the results are really bad when you consider its McDavid and Drai out there: The usual caveat about small sample sizes and such, but those underlying numbers aren't good. His point isn't specifically that they aren't scoring enough, but that without a .950 save percentage behind them, they would likely be giving up more goals than they are scoring, which isn't okay. https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075419767169642497 And later on in the thread, he posted this: Quote: @Woodguy55: 3.59 with Chiasson and 4.59 w/o him. Those are GF/60 rates, so they are actually scoring less with Chiasson than without him. I haven't dug into the numbers at all, so there may be some usage things going on there. And that 4.59 number will include some time with RNH, so it may make more sense to spread out the scoring more. https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1075421138593824769 But it's the top numbers that are more concerning. It doesn't matter how much that line is scoring if they're on the ice for more goals against than they score, this team is not going to make up that difference from the bottom 12. Well in my opinion, that's the fault of McDavid and Leon, not Chiasson. You see McDavid and Leon cheating for offense all the time. McDavid is the best, fastest player in the NHL by a lot and how many times do we see McDavid's guy going free with McDavid cruising behind? In all seriousness, what player can't McDavid keep up with and out skill to steal a puck from? So he should be able to be in the hip pocket of every player he lines up against but he's not. I feel dirty to say anything remotely negative about McDavid but he's the key to that line. I actually don't think that line has looked that effective recently. They haven't been dominating like they were earlier in the year. It could be Chiasson, it could be fatigue from over-playing those guys, but something likely has to change. In this morning's practice, it appears that it's Chiasson that Hitchcock elected to change: Quote: Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer RNH-McDavid-Puljujarvi Rieder-Draisaitl-Chiasson Caggiula-Brodziak-Kassian Lucic-Khaira (susp)-Rattie Spooner likely in for Khaira, Zykov Also - Lucic practicing on the fourth line...If he skates with Rattie and Spooner, he may set a new low in ice time next game. Does he even get 10 minutes?

Interesting top 2 lines. Drai really really needs a break from the 20+ mins a night. That's one thing I have really questioned HItch on. Somehow Drai's ice time was ending up higher than McDavid, made no sense, there is no way you could expect a big body like Drai to play that much without it degrading his play.

hopefully this leads to some 16-18 min nights for Drai and he can recuperate.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

[Updated on: Thu, 20 December 2018 13:06]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

[Updated on: Thu, 20 December 2018 15:55]

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 15:52

CrusaderPi wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 15:36 RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 15:35 Kr55 wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 15:28 RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 20 December 2018 15:26 OH thank god someone reminded us all that Lucic's contract sucks. It's only been made a day or 2 since the last time. The need to give him that contract has ended up being one of the main reasons we are stuck with an at best wildcard team right now. And it's gonna be a pain in the butt for years to come if we don't find a way to get rid of it. Every year from here on out that we are not contenders with McDavid should be considered a huge failure by management. Next year is year 5 of the 5 year plan. Not arguing one bit about it. It's a bad, bad contract and a huge mistake. Just don't think a person needs to hear about it every single day. I'd rather forget and try to focus on the few good things rather than beat down by the bad. Reality is as it is. If you focus on good, while ignoring the bad, one tends to be surprised by how reality manifests. Reals over feels. I am not ignoring the bad. It stares me in the face every single time I turn on the game or sit in the stands as soon as #27 jumps over the boards. I just don't feel the need to obsess about it by constantly mentioning it every day. The contract sucks, it will always suck. There is most likely no way he can or will EVER live up to it. It will probably be one of those contracts that get written about as being terrible every time some hockey writer or blogger has nothing else to write about. So it's here and here to stay. So how do they work with it or work around it, that should be the question.

I think it was only brought up in a funny way on this thread though :)

I was mainly just trying to focus on Lucic. If he's staying, he needs to accept he is just a 4th line level contributor now and keep bringing the kind of effort level that a really good 4th liner brings. He should watch Ryan Reaves highlights. That guy is trying to take heads off every shift. He gets in everyone face and somehow is able to produce pretty decently too because the guy is 100% engaged every game and tries to physically dominate everyone. Seriously, if Lucic tried to act like that, fans would probably love him, even if he only gets 10 goals a year. But I think he still thinks he is embarrassing himself by not putting up 50+ points and that eats away at everything he is able to do for the team.

Oh, and his contract SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!! Not sure you knew that

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

#firebob #screwitjustselltheteam #ownerisacreep

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Bob Marley and the (Hartford) Wailers.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky