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 Oilers » Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavidPages (4): [ «  <  1  2  3  4  >  »]
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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698463 is a reply to message #698457 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 10:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerfan79  is currently offline oilerfan79
Messages: 118
Registered: August 2006
Location: Windsor Ontario

No Cups

Wow that's a pretty big jump from getting screwed out of a trip to the conference final which would make them one of the last 4 teams playing for the Cup to now consistently underwhelming and not contending for the cup. Did you travel forward in time or something? What are next weeks lotto numbers?

You say he's always making bad deals and I'll give you Reinhart but what else? Russel is two years too long but he can be traded in 2 years to any of 19 teams so it's not terrible. And as far as dollars go what do #4 dmen get paid because that's where the coach is playing him whether you or I think he should be there or not. Gustavsson was a cheap bet that was made in case Brossoit wasn't ready so to me no harm no foul. Talbot was robbery so was Maroon and Kassian. What bad deals? Hall for Larsson has turned out alright, I'd make that deal again and again seeing the way it turned out.

Eberle was a downgrade for sure but do you really want to hold on to him till next summer and get picks and prospects if that even? Chia was proactive so he didn't have another Boychuck situation on his hands. Eberle would not play the coaches system and after the playoffs if you don't think he fell out of favour you're kidding yourself. So to not be in cap hell and not get a few more magic beans he got an NHL caliber hockey player that also needed a change of scenery. I know everyone here thinks I hate Eberle as well, I didn't until the playoffs, but after watching him give the effort he did I knew he had to go. I saw a player who was not willing to sacrifice his body at all to make a play and you don't get far in the playoffs with that attitude and 29 other GM's saw the same plays. So I don't think getting Strome and 3.5 million in cap space for Eberle was a bad deal in fact much like Hall for Larsson the Oilers may be better for it.

I can understand the skepticism after so long having a bunch of inept clowns running the team but Chia has taken them from cellar to cup contender in 2 years, I'll give him another year to see what he can do.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698464 is a reply to message #698463 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 10:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
Messages: 3959
Registered: June 2009
Location: Rogers' Arena > Banff

3 Cups

I absolutely despise these types of threads and haven't even bothered to read it at all.

I'm going to go back and read it now and make terrible points to back up what I initially said about this thread that I hate, that I didn't read.

In other news, my six-year-old daughter hates Disney's Princess and the Frog, but she hasn't seen it.



2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.
2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698467 is a reply to message #698463 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 11:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 10:42

Wow that's a pretty big jump from getting screwed out of a trip to the conference final which would make them one of the last 4 teams playing for the Cup to now consistently underwhelming and not contending for the cup. Did you travel forward in time or something? What are next weeks lotto numbers?

You say he's always making bad deals and I'll give you Reinhart but what else? Russel is two years too long but he can be traded in 2 years to any of 19 teams so it's not terrible. And as far as dollars go what do #4 dmen get paid because that's where the coach is playing him whether you or I think he should be there or not. Gustavsson was a cheap bet that was made in case Brossoit wasn't ready so to me no harm no foul. Talbot was robbery so was Maroon and Kassian. What bad deals? Hall for Larsson has turned out alright, I'd make that deal again and again seeing the way it turned out.

Eberle was a downgrade for sure but do you really want to hold on to him till next summer and get picks and prospects if that even? Chia was proactive so he didn't have another Boychuck situation on his hands. Eberle would not play the coaches system and after the playoffs if you don't think he fell out of favour you're kidding yourself. So to not be in cap hell and not get a few more magic beans he got an NHL caliber hockey player that also needed a change of scenery. I know everyone here thinks I hate Eberle as well, I didn't until the playoffs, but after watching him give the effort he did I knew he had to go. I saw a player who was not willing to sacrifice his body at all to make a play and you don't get far in the playoffs with that attitude and 29 other GM's saw the same plays. So I don't think getting Strome and 3.5 million in cap space for Eberle was a bad deal in fact much like Hall for Larsson the Oilers may be better for it.

I can understand the skepticism after so long having a bunch of inept clowns running the team but Chia has taken them from cellar to cup contender in 2 years, I'll give him another year to see what he can do.


The Oilers definitely had a shot this year. The top teams in the conference flopped in the first round, and the Ducks weren't unbeatable. Their key players on defence were all injured or playing hurt. And we didn't get it done, and the system looked exposed on several fronts.

McLellan wants the team playing ultra-conservative, so you'd see them adjust the system to a more defensive set-up when they were up a goal. As a result, they rarely built on leads, and gave them up again and again.

The defence lacked puck-movers, even moreso as the playoffs wore on and injuries started to take a toll. We saw that the Ducks read the Oilers system well, and the team was regularly bottlenecked inside their own zone.

There's an argument to be made that the Sharks should have been more easily dispatched too. This was a team in free-fall through the last six weeks of the season, with major injuries to a couple of their key players.

I did not like the officiating in the playoffs, but it is what it is, and both teams live with the same refs. We lost. We didn't make the Final 4. And we have not tangibly improved upon the team that didn't get us past the Ducks last year. I think that's where a lot of people here have an issue.

A good GM should have less debateable moves than Chiarelli does. He likes the big move, in part possibly because then he can take credit for team improvement - whether it was really all Connor McDavid or not - but where he's shown some talent is for the smaller, subtler moves. I'd prefer to see him take small steps forward, as he did with Maroon, or even Kassian, as opposed to make a big impetuous move like the Eberle deal.

The problem there is that the Eberle/Strome deal shouldn't be long-term thinking. The biggest window for the Oilers to win a Cup might be this year when they have lots of financial flexibility. They had room for Eberle, and even with him, they still had room for a rental. If Strome is only marginally worse than him (which would take a big jump in performance to bear out), then the team is still marginally worse for the trade. It takes us further from contender status this year. Would I have loved seeing Eberle go for even less next year? No, but at least if I can see that they needed the cap space, I'd have understood. They didn't need the space this year and they DO need it to be a huge step forward year.

As it sits now, I don't have any Vegas confidence in the Oilers ability to win the 2017-18 Stanley Cup. I think we're long shots, because we doubled down on a defence that wasn't good enough, and we made our forwards worse for the second summer in a row.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698469 is a reply to message #698467 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 11:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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2 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 10:05


The problem there is that the Eberle/Strome deal shouldn't be long-term thinking. The biggest window for the Oilers to win a Cup might be this year when they have lots of financial flexibility. They had room for Eberle, and even with him, they still had room for a rental.


I don't really want to re-litigate the Eberle trade, my feelings on it are pretty clear, but this is one of the most frustrating parts of the deal. I don't see how it helps them in the long-term. And it makes them worse in the short-term.

Strome only has one year left on his current deal. So if he has a great year and scores 50 points, they're going to have to pay him significantly more than he's currently making and the cap savings in year 2 when they really need them are greatly reduced.

And if he remains a 30 point, 3rd line center, that isn't a great skater, isn't really physical, doesn't kill penalties and likely won't play on the 1st unit PP, then that player can be signed for basically the same that Strome is making now, pretty much every single year.

So where's the actual benefit? Maybe to save $1M - $1.5M in year 2?



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698470 is a reply to message #698467 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 11:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerfan79  is currently offline oilerfan79
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Location: Windsor Ontario

No Cups

Did we watch the same playoffs? Eberle was a passenger at best and an anchor at worst how does he help them win now? Stome has 8 points in 15 playoffs games for his career Eberle has 2 points in 13 playoff games that's 4 times as many point in only 2 more games that to me shows a win now mentality. You may not like the trade and really think Chia got hosed but regular season stats mean absolutely nothing when the playoffs come around so your they aren't trying to win now argument doesn't hold water. They got heavier Strome outweighs Eberle by 20lbs, they got faster we all know Eberle is not a great skater, they got more versatile Strome can play RW & C and he outscores him 4 to one over his career when the games really matter.

Chia kept himself out of cap hell next summer by losing 3.5 million off the cap and shouldn't have to get into the situation like he did in Boston where he had to give up a quality piece just to get back under the cap. If they had kept Eberle do you think every GM would say sure I'll help you out of a bind or would they say yeah I'll take him and Nurse for picks or better yet I don't want Eberle you're stuck with him I'll take Larsson or Klefbom. GM's will see the weakness and exploit it. Chia was not shopping around Boychuck all summer he was shopping others but the other GM's weren't biting so he was stuck moving a quality piece to get under the cap so they didn't start losing draft picks.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698471 is a reply to message #698470 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 12:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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2 Cups

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 10:51

Did we watch the same playoffs? Eberle was a passenger at best and an anchor at worst how does he help them win now? Stome has 8 points in 15 playoffs games for his career Eberle has 2 points in 13 playoff games that's 4 times as many point in only 2 more games that to me shows a win now mentality. You may not like the trade and really think Chia got hosed but regular season stats mean absolutely nothing when the playoffs come around so your they aren't trying to win now argument doesn't hold water. They got heavier Strome outweighs Eberle by 20lbs, they got faster we all know Eberle is not a great skater, they got more versatile Strome can play RW & C and he outscores him 4 to one over his career when the games really matter.

Chia kept himself out of cap hell next summer by losing 3.5 million off the cap and shouldn't have to get into the situation like he did in Boston where he had to give up a quality piece just to get back under the cap. If they had kept Eberle do you think every GM would say sure I'll help you out of a bind or would they say yeah I'll take him and Nurse for picks or better yet I don't want Eberle you're stuck with him I'll take Larsson or Klefbom. GM's will see the weakness and exploit it. Chia was not shopping around Boychuck all summer he was shopping others but the other GM's weren't biting so he was stuck moving a quality piece to get under the cap so they didn't start losing draft picks.


Let's just say I don't put a lot of stock in small samples. And we'll have to agree to disagree that Strome is a better player than Eberle today.

But again, my point is that Chia didn't save himself $3.5M next summer. If Strome had been signed for 3 more years, and there was some cost certainty there, then the trade makes more sense to me. But if he plans on keeping Strome on the team next year, and he replaces Eberle's production, then he's going to have to pay him more than he's making now, and that $3.5M could easily become $1.5M.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698473 is a reply to message #698471 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 12:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerfan79  is currently offline oilerfan79
Messages: 118
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Location: Windsor Ontario

No Cups

So your argument is that if Strome does really well and replaces Eberle's regular season production then Chia only saved 1.5 million off the cap for a player 3 years younger who isn't a UFA the year after next? Then I agree what a terrible trade get out the pitch forks and torches. And when you only have small samples that's all you can go on.


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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698474 is a reply to message #698473 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 12:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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6 Cups

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:44

So your argument is that if Strome does really well and replaces Eberle's regular season production then Chia only saved 1.5 million off the cap for a player 3 years younger who isn't a UFA the year after next? Then I agree what a terrible trade get out the pitch forks and torches. And when you only have small samples that's all you can go on.


Are you going to be the person to finally take my bet of Eberle's production versus Strome's production for this year?



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698475 is a reply to message #698474 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 12:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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6 Cups

Adam wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:49

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:44

So your argument is that if Strome does really well and replaces Eberle's regular season production then Chia only saved 1.5 million off the cap for a player 3 years younger who isn't a UFA the year after next? Then I agree what a terrible trade get out the pitch forks and torches. And when you only have small samples that's all you can go on.


Are you going to be the person to finally take my bet of Eberle's production versus Strome's production for this year?


He does make a good point though :)

If Strome is near replacing Eberle's production and costs 1.5M less after a new contract, I guess that's a trade becomes a clear win for Chia in the short and long term. Hard part of course is the whole 50+ points thing for Strome to accomplish. Do Oilers pro scouts finally get a win?

[Updated on: Fri, 18 August 2017 12:53]


"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

"In Brad we trust"
- All Oilers fans, Present Day

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698481 is a reply to message #698475 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 13:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:51

Adam wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:49

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:44

So your argument is that if Strome does really well and replaces Eberle's regular season production then Chia only saved 1.5 million off the cap for a player 3 years younger who isn't a UFA the year after next? Then I agree what a terrible trade get out the pitch forks and torches. And when you only have small samples that's all you can go on.


Are you going to be the person to finally take my bet of Eberle's production versus Strome's production for this year?


He does make a good point though :)

If Strome is near replacing Eberle's production and costs 1.5M less after a new contract, I guess that's a trade becomes a clear win for Chia in the short and long term. Hard part of course is the whole 50+ points thing for Strome to accomplish. Do Oilers pro scouts finally get a win?


But 50 points is a low water mark for Eberle and a high water mark for Strome...sooooo, it's a cap savings if you get him at 50 points, but it's hard to call that a clear win.

If Strome becomes a consistent 50 point player and signs a deal cheaper than Eberle's, then it's not a clear loss any more at least...

Of course, I think Eberle was a slam dunk for 50 points this year with a hope of reaching 60-65, and I don't think Strome has a snowball's chance in hell of getting to those numbers.



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireChiarelli #FireBobbyNicks #FireKeithGretzky #FireKenHolland #FireTippett

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698499 is a reply to message #698475 ]
Sat, 19 August 2017 23:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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2 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 11:51


He does make a good point though :)

If Strome is near replacing Eberle's production and costs 1.5M less after a new contract, I guess that's a trade becomes a clear win for Chia in the short and long term. Hard part of course is the whole 50+ points thing for Strome to accomplish. Do Oilers pro scouts finally get a win?


If Strome is able to match Eberle's production and demands Niederreiter money, the question for me Is, which player is more valuable:

A 50-60 point player that plays primarily away from McDavid and makes $6M/yr or;

A 50-60 point player that can only do so playing alongside McDavid and makes $5M/yr?




Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698500 is a reply to message #698499 ]
Sun, 20 August 2017 08:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Burgeoboy  is currently offline Burgeoboy
Messages: 65
Registered: July 2006
Location: Burgeo, Newfoundland

No Cups

It seems most people here think we well make the playoffs agian this year, but with this current roster we won't be a contender . Maybe I am way off, but I feel like we were a contender last season, a couple bad calls/breaks from the final 4. If you don't think we were a contender last year, fair enough, just a heads up, everything I say from this point on well be based on the premise we were a contender last year .

So, if we make the playoffs, how is this years team worst then last years? everyone talks about missing Eberle 50 points, but those only helped get us there, what did he do in the playoffs that well be missed in the playoffs this year ? Surely our chances of winning this spring would not have been worst with Storme and Jokinen instead Eberle , would they ?

We were a contender in my mind with Eberle giving us nothing, did we win the trade ? No, but thats a differemt topic , thats been beat to death, so I well leave it alone. I am lost as why people think we won't be a contender with out him, in my mind we already where . So add in Stome and Jokinen (with no loss, Eberle gave us nothing ) and a young core that is improving and I think we should be better this playoff then we were last year.

Now , if you were to say, we won't make the playoffs with out Eberles 50 points and there's no chance we well be as healthy as last year etc so we won't make the playoffs, that I can understand and won't disagree with, it could happen . But I don't see the logic that we well be a less competitive playoff team then we were last year, because Eberle is gone. With that siad , it's the NHL and with the parity in this leauge, i won't be surprised if we get knocked out in the first round or of we win the cup.

OK now time for my rant

We missed the playoffs for ten years, so we change GM and Coach (agian) and draft Macdavid, I would say 3 pretty major changes. In year two , we make the playoffs and have a pretty impressive run and all I read here is how bad the coach and GM are . The coach as no clue and the GM makes terrible deals. I get Macdavid is great, I really do, but he didn't do this by him self . He's a big part of course , the biggest part I would think , with out a doubt, but these other two have played a role to and get no credit for it.

11 years of coming here every day and I honeslty hate to open threads now . The negativey is worst now then when we didn't make the playoffs, you guys have me missing the good old days of being excited about first over all picks . This should be be a high point, we have the greatest player in the world , a strong young core locked up for years, the best team some of the younger people here have seen in there life time , but for some reason the sky is falling.

Chia didn't build this by himself, he was gifted Macdavid and yes he's made some mistake , but the man as won a cup and helped turn this team around quick. Some here like to judge is past and ponit out is failures , like the segiun deal etc and claim that makes him a bad GM. But some how winning a cup doesn't prove he is a good GM . It's crazy , can some one please point out the GM in this leauge that never makes a bad deal and always wins the cup ? Well let's look at the cup winners , I guess Chicago would be the gold standard , but wasn't Bowmen gifted Toews and Kane, kieth and Sea Brook , how's that Buff trade looking theses days ? And really who waste 21 mill a year on two players only a badGM right ? Maybe it's LA , but wait they signed Dustin Brown to that deal and are in cap hell so it can't be Lombardi , is it the Pens ? If so is it Shero or Rutherford ? We know it's not the guy that won the cup with Boston.

We also have a coach that as done nothing but win hockey games is whole career and surprise, surprise , a total fluke I am sure, but he is winning agian here. But of course we have guys here that know better then both our GM and coach , after all they read blogs with advance stats in it, so that as to be right , unless the advance stat tells you Kris Russell belongs in the NHL, then that is a flawed advance stat, but if it tells you Nick Shore is a top line center and Kris Russell is a bum , you know your on to something.

Anyway, I know I am being over the top here and if you rolled your eyes a few dz times reading my post, well welcome to my oilfans experience theses days. Guys the sky isn't falling and believe it or not, the further is bright, it won't be easy and mistakes we'll be made, we might it not win a cup, most teams don't, but with some help from the counting crows, I well some it up it this way , 🎶 it's been a long ten years, but there is reason to believe, that maybe the next ten will be better then the last 🎶 and right now that's enough for me .



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698509 is a reply to message #698500 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 09:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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2 Cups

Burgeoboy wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Anyway, I know I am being over the top here and if you rolled your eyes a few dz times reading my post, well welcome to my oilfans experience theses days. Guys the sky isn't falling and believe it or not, the further is bright, it won't be easy and mistakes we'll be made, we might it not win a cup, most teams don't, but with some help from the counting crows, I well some it up it this way , 🎶 it's been a long ten years, but there is reason to believe, that maybe the next ten will be better then the last 🎶 and right now that's enough for me .



Thanks for the post Burgeoboy. I clipped it to save space.

Just wanted to say that I definitely went back and forth about publishing my last couple posts. I'm fully aware how negative they come across, believe me I have to live with these thoughts in my head every day.

The intention was never to be negative or bring anybody down. This site is a big part of what got me through the decade of darkness. Being able to come in here and vent about MacT and Eakins was very cathartic. Being a fan of this team has taught us a lot of harsh lessons.

When I say that I hate the Eberle trade it's not to ruin anyone's enjoyment of the team. I'm really very pleasant in real life. But I honestly believe that it makes the team worse.

But I hear where you're coming from. I think I'll take a break from posting about the Oilers until the season starts. When I see someone post about how terrible Eberle Is, or how Strome will be a "better fit" even though he's slow, not great defensively and not as good of an attacker as David Staples did, I'll just skip over that part.

For CrusaderPi and others that frequent the OT forum, don't worry I'll still be in there to yell about the merits of wind power and a decent minimum wage icon_wink

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/ first-impressions-of-ryan-strome-hes-a-better-fit-for-edmont on-oilers-than-jordan-eberle

[Updated on: Mon, 21 August 2017 10:26]


Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698504 is a reply to message #698499 ]
Sun, 20 August 2017 22:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Goose wrote on Sat, 19 August 2017 23:30

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 11:51


He does make a good point though :)

If Strome is near replacing Eberle's production and costs 1.5M less after a new contract, I guess that's a trade becomes a clear win for Chia in the short and long term. Hard part of course is the whole 50+ points thing for Strome to accomplish. Do Oilers pro scouts finally get a win?


If Strome is able to match Eberle's production and demands Niederreiter money, the question for me Is, which player is more valuable:

A 50-60 point player that plays primarily away from McDavid and makes $6M/yr or;

A 50-60 point player that can only do so playing alongside McDavid and makes $5M/yr?




I'll honestly be pissed if Chia gives Strome 5M for getting 50-60 points with McDavid. For sure in that case though, he is less valuable. He should be getting a deal just above Sheary's kind of contract. 3-4M tops.

Just on this topic, is there a site left out there where you can see a players point production with/without guys?



"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

"In Brad we trust"
- All Oilers fans, Present Day

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698505 is a reply to message #698504 ]
Sun, 20 August 2017 22:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Kr55 wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017 21:23


Just on this topic, is there a site left out there where you can see a players point production with/without guys?


Sort of. Apparently the more math-y stats guys don't think WOWY's are important confused2

I think that you can do it at www.naturastattrick.com, but it's a bit more effort. On the Player>Individuals page, find the player you're looking for and click 'Scoring' on the right, it shows you all the goals by teammate they assisted on, who their goals were assisted by and who the other teammates were that were on the ice. So you can kind of cobble it together.

The one piece I'm not 100% sure on is what 'Assisted With' means. I think it means that was the player that had the other assist on a goal they assisted on but I'm definitely not sure.

If I'm reading that right and we use Caggiula and McDavid at 5x5 as an example:

Caggiula assisted McDavid on 1 goal
McDavid didn't assist Caggiula on any goals
They both assisted on the same goal 2 times
McDavid wasn't on the ice for any other points that Caggiula had

So they were on the ice together for 3 of Caggiula's 11 5x5 points

Then if you click on Teammates from the drop down, you can see TOI together and apart, as well as the on-ice stats.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698506 is a reply to message #698505 ]
Sun, 20 August 2017 23:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017 22:58

Kr55 wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017 21:23


Just on this topic, is there a site left out there where you can see a players point production with/without guys?


Sort of. Apparently the more math-y stats guys don't think WOWY's are important confused2

I think that you can do it at www.naturastattrick.com, but it's a bit more effort. On the Player>Individuals page, find the player you're looking for and click 'Scoring' on the right, it shows you all the goals by teammate they assisted on, who their goals were assisted by and who the other teammates were that were on the ice. So you can kind of cobble it together.

The one piece I'm not 100% sure on is what 'Assisted With' means. I think it means that was the player that had the other assist on a goal they assisted on but I'm definitely not sure.

If I'm reading that right and we use Caggiula and McDavid at 5x5 as an example:

Caggiula assisted McDavid on 1 goal
McDavid didn't assist Caggiula on any goals
They both assisted on the same goal 2 times
McDavid wasn't on the ice for any other points that Caggiula had

So they were on the ice together for 3 of Caggiula's 11 5x5 points

Then if you click on Teammates from the drop down, you can see TOI together and apart, as well as the on-ice stats.


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698508 is a reply to message #698506 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 09:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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mightyreasoner wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...


Ya I think the argument they would make is that a properly built regression-based model like GAR would do a better job of accounting for teammate and competition effects than WOWYs

I'm not convinced that model exists yet. And I think some of those guys don't put a lot of weight in teammate and especially competition effects, which I don't really agree with either



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698510 is a reply to message #698508 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 09:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:00

mightyreasoner wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...


Ya I think the argument they would make is that a properly built regression-based model like GAR would do a better job of accounting for teammate and competition effects than WOWYs

I'm not convinced that model exists yet. And I think some of those guys don't put a lot of weight in teammate and especially competition effects, which I don't really agree with either


One funny thing on this I noticed a little while ago. Someone made a big stink about how Klefbom was rated so highly on WAR/GAR models, I think it was Dellow. He dug in about how Klef's stats aren't elite without McDavid. Then all of a sudden Klefbom started to disappear from the tops of new models people have been posting on twitter. Seems the ideal approach now is creating models to make the best players be at the top of the model but they also need to keep Klefbom away from the top :)



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698517 is a reply to message #698510 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 12:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:39

Goose wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:00

mightyreasoner wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...


Ya I think the argument they would make is that a properly built regression-based model like GAR would do a better job of accounting for teammate and competition effects than WOWYs

I'm not convinced that model exists yet. And I think some of those guys don't put a lot of weight in teammate and especially competition effects, which I don't really agree with either


One funny thing on this I noticed a little while ago. Someone made a big stink about how Klefbom was rated so highly on WAR/GAR models, I think it was Dellow. He dug in about how Klef's stats aren't elite without McDavid. Then all of a sudden Klefbom started to disappear from the tops of new models people have been posting on twitter. Seems the ideal approach now is creating models to make the best players be at the top of the model but they also need to keep Klefbom away from the top :)


Ya, I'm starting at a spreadsheet of preliminary results right now and Klefbom's got some warts. Benning is a beast, and if he continues on like last season I'm locking him up long term. Russell is a tire-fire who is killing Sekera, and Larsson had a solid season despite being pushed down by Klefbom in the d-zone.

If I'm setting up the D pairings:

Sekera - Larsson
Klefbom - Benning
Nurse/Auvitu - Russell/Gryba

That Auvitu signing is an excellent bet, btw.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698518 is a reply to message #698517 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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ziltoid wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 12:57

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:39

Goose wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:00

mightyreasoner wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...


Ya I think the argument they would make is that a properly built regression-based model like GAR would do a better job of accounting for teammate and competition effects than WOWYs

I'm not convinced that model exists yet. And I think some of those guys don't put a lot of weight in teammate and especially competition effects, which I don't really agree with either


One funny thing on this I noticed a little while ago. Someone made a big stink about how Klefbom was rated so highly on WAR/GAR models, I think it was Dellow. He dug in about how Klef's stats aren't elite without McDavid. Then all of a sudden Klefbom started to disappear from the tops of new models people have been posting on twitter. Seems the ideal approach now is creating models to make the best players be at the top of the model but they also need to keep Klefbom away from the top :)


Ya, I'm starting at a spreadsheet of preliminary results right now and Klefbom's got some warts. Benning is a beast, and if he continues on like last season I'm locking him up long term. Russell is a tire-fire who is killing Sekera, and Larsson had a solid season despite being pushed down by Klefbom in the d-zone.

If I'm setting up the D pairings:

Sekera - Larsson
Klefbom - Benning
Nurse/Auvitu - Russell/Gryba

That Auvitu signing is an excellent bet, btw.

So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698522 is a reply to message #698518 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 13:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21


So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.


It'll be interesting to see if that happens, although not surprising in Edmonton. As soon as one offensive defenceman is gone, the next one immediately becomes the target of the fanbase's scorn...

Honestly, I think Klefbom is the top defender on the team now. I think he's better and more important than Larson or Sekera...and both of those guys are pretty important.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698524 is a reply to message #698522 ]
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Adam wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:51

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21


So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.


It'll be interesting to see if that happens, although not surprising in Edmonton. As soon as one offensive defenceman is gone, the next one immediately becomes the target of the fanbase's scorn...

Honestly, I think Klefbom is the top defender on the team now. I think he's better and more important than Larson or Sekera...and both of those guys are pretty important.


To RDOF. I dont think people are ready to carve up Klefbom. I think he is a guy that Oiler fans who watch the games like and know how much he improved. It is the people outside of this fan base that run a set of numbers and cant believe he is ranked highly. They then think that is a flaw in the formula so re-work it.
Nothing to do with advanced stats but I admit to being victim to this at times. This is why with the Eberle/Strome trade I have tried to base my opinion on what I know watching Eberle and then comparing stats. I have barely seen Strome play so "try" not to form hard opinions on his play until 20 or so games.
As an example I have seen people here defend that with Strome being faster. Then in a recent article I read he is slower. It is all tough to wade through until seeing him on the ice in a decent sample size
***not trying to reignite an Eberle discussion. Just an example of where I personally have to be careful

To Adam.
I agree that he was the best all around defenceman last season. I think he is really underrated defensively, especially considering the way he stays away from the box. I think the true test will be if he can carry his own pairing while Sekera is out. If he cant it wont mean he is a bust just that perhaps him and Larsson are complimentary.
I am REALLY hoping he can carry a pairing as that would solve a lot of the top 4 problems for the long term if him and Larsson can be counted on when split up



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698525 is a reply to message #698524 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 16:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 15:53

Adam wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:51

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21


So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.


It'll be interesting to see if that happens, although not surprising in Edmonton. As soon as one offensive defenceman is gone, the next one immediately becomes the target of the fanbase's scorn...

Honestly, I think Klefbom is the top defender on the team now. I think he's better and more important than Larson or Sekera...and both of those guys are pretty important.


To RDOF. I dont think people are ready to carve up Klefbom. I think he is a guy that Oiler fans who watch the games like and know how much he improved. It is the people outside of this fan base that run a set of numbers and cant believe he is ranked highly. They then think that is a flaw in the formula so re-work it.
Nothing to do with advanced stats but I admit to being victim to this at times. This is why with the Eberle/Strome trade I have tried to base my opinion on what I know watching Eberle and then comparing stats. I have barely seen Strome play so "try" not to form hard opinions on his play until 20 or so games.
As an example I have seen people here defend that with Strome being faster. Then in a recent article I read he is slower. It is all tough to wade through until seeing him on the ice in a decent sample size
***not trying to reignite an Eberle discussion. Just an example of where I personally have to be careful

To Adam.
I agree that he was the best all around defenceman last season. I think he is really underrated defensively, especially considering the way he stays away from the box. I think the true test will be if he can carry his own pairing while Sekera is out. If he cant it wont mean he is a bust just that perhaps him and Larsson are complimentary.
I am REALLY hoping he can carry a pairing as that would solve a lot of the top 4 problems for the long term if him and Larsson can be counted on when split up


Have you not just admitted a huge flaw in the stats community that huge flaw being the ability of the stats person to manipulate the numbers to spit out whatever they want? I would have to assume that the stats guy has a a bunch or formula's created to calculate his stats. So if you input the data for say Doughty and it spits out results that you believe are correct, why do you rework the numbers for another guy because you either don't like him as much or don't know the player? 2 + 2 = 4 for one dman but because you don't know or like a different dman as much, all of a sudden 2+2 = 3.5 for someone else? When you read and listen to all the more "main stream" stats guys, they all seem to do things just a little bit different. There doesn't seem to be one set way to calculate these stats. 3 guys could watch the same player do the exact same play and they would all grade him slightly different. So who's right? The stats guy I like the most both to read and to listen too is Darcy McLeaod a.k.a Woodguy. I like him because he is a straight shooter and he explains his stats in a way that is very easy to understand. But even he will talk about other stats guys and their numbers and will say "Well he counted this and he shouldn't'. Well how does Darcy know that his way is 100% correct and someone else is wrong? He doesn't.

In the case of Klefbom, he's already a very good dman. Is he the finished product yet? At recently turned 24 and barely 2 years worth of NHL games under his belt, I would say no he has room to grow.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698527 is a reply to message #698525 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 17:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 16:15

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 15:53

Adam wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:51

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21


So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.


It'll be interesting to see if that happens, although not surprising in Edmonton. As soon as one offensive defenceman is gone, the next one immediately becomes the target of the fanbase's scorn...

Honestly, I think Klefbom is the top defender on the team now. I think he's better and more important than Larson or Sekera...and both of those guys are pretty important.


To RDOF. I dont think people are ready to carve up Klefbom. I think he is a guy that Oiler fans who watch the games like and know how much he improved. It is the people outside of this fan base that run a set of numbers and cant believe he is ranked highly. They then think that is a flaw in the formula so re-work it.
Nothing to do with advanced stats but I admit to being victim to this at times. This is why with the Eberle/Strome trade I have tried to base my opinion on what I know watching Eberle and then comparing stats. I have barely seen Strome play so "try" not to form hard opinions on his play until 20 or so games.
As an example I have seen people here defend that with Strome being faster. Then in a recent article I read he is slower. It is all tough to wade through until seeing him on the ice in a decent sample size
***not trying to reignite an Eberle discussion. Just an example of where I personally have to be careful

To Adam.
I agree that he was the best all around defenceman last season. I think he is really underrated defensively, especially considering the way he stays away from the box. I think the true test will be if he can carry his own pairing while Sekera is out. If he cant it wont mean he is a bust just that perhaps him and Larsson are complimentary.
I am REALLY hoping he can carry a pairing as that would solve a lot of the top 4 problems for the long term if him and Larsson can be counted on when split up


Have you not just admitted a huge flaw in the stats community that huge flaw being the ability of the stats person to manipulate the numbers to spit out whatever they want? I would have to assume that the stats guy has a a bunch or formula's created to calculate his stats. So if you input the data for say Doughty and it spits out results that you believe are correct, why do you rework the numbers for another guy because you either don't like him as much or don't know the player? 2 + 2 = 4 for one dman but because you don't know or like a different dman as much, all of a sudden 2+2 = 3.5 for someone else? When you read and listen to all the more "main stream" stats guys, they all seem to do things just a little bit different. There doesn't seem to be one set way to calculate these stats. 3 guys could watch the same player do the exact same play and they would all grade him slightly different. So who's right? The stats guy I like the most both to read and to listen too is Darcy McLeaod a.k.a Woodguy. I like him because he is a straight shooter and he explains his stats in a way that is very easy to understand. But even he will talk about other stats guys and their numbers and will say "Well he counted this and he shouldn't'. Well how does Darcy know that his way is 100% correct and someone else is wrong? He doesn't.

In the case of Klefbom, he's already a very good dman. Is he the finished product yet? At recently turned 24 and barely 2 years worth of NHL games under his belt, I would say no he has room to grow.


There is absolutely no right way to value the stats package. You're right in that everyone is going to value different stats differently. I don't think that's a weakness with stats-based analysis, it just shows that there's still some subjectivity no matter what method you look at.

As for Dellow, I've never been a big believer in him as a great hockey mind. He's incredibly detail-oriented and he does some great analysis. He's managed to do some interesting break-down on player's usages at various times (I suspect his diagnosis of what Eakins was doing with RNH, what Eakins thought it would do and why it didn't work that way is a big reason that Eakins pushed to have the Oilers hire him.)

But he's also a contrarian who likes taking unpopular viewpoints, stubborn and prone to locking in to judgements and arguing passionately against any other approach being right in any way. He was once a regular around these parts, and we saw him argue passionately that Ty Conklin was much better than Martin Brodeur, among other things. His approach to dealing with David Staples on Corsi-based analysis versus other Staples-esque approaches was awful - it devolved in to stupid twitter wars that Staples is still clearly bitter about.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698529 is a reply to message #698525 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 17:19 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 16:15



Have you not just admitted a huge flaw in the stats community that huge flaw being the ability of the stats person to manipulate the numbers to spit out whatever they want?


I admit to nothing! You cant prove I did anything...

I am in no way qualified to be a spokesman for the stats community.
I believe what you are pointing out is a fallacy in all use of a small sample size of stats to make a decision OR a large group of stats so convoluted that the reader has no desire to dive into what drives the results.
Either method is often a fools errand.

I was actually using that as a lead in to a mistake that almost all sports fans, media people, even paid hockey people make.
That being we take certain things as fact and reject others. Confirmation bias is strong in the sports community. Any one with an internet connection these days can prove that someone is good or bad if looked at through the right lens.

So no, I wasnt admitting a huge flaw in the stats community. I was simply pointing out, and taking ownership, for a mistake that many fans make in judging talent.




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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698531 is a reply to message #698529 ]
Tue, 22 August 2017 07:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 17:19

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 16:15



Have you not just admitted a huge flaw in the stats community that huge flaw being the ability of the stats person to manipulate the numbers to spit out whatever they want?


I admit to nothing! You cant prove I did anything...

I am in no way qualified to be a spokesman for the stats community.
I believe what you are pointing out is a fallacy in all use of a small sample size of stats to make a decision OR a large group of stats so convoluted that the reader has no desire to dive into what drives the results.
Either method is often a fools errand.

I was actually using that as a lead in to a mistake that almost all sports fans, media people, even paid hockey people make.
That being we take certain things as fact and reject others. Confirmation bias is strong in the sports community. Any one with an internet connection these days can prove that someone is good or bad if looked at through the right lens.

So no, I wasnt admitting a huge flaw in the stats community. I was simply pointing out, and taking ownership, for a mistake that many fans make in judging talent.




Hey, the Olympics have some bad officiating sometimes - The Olympics must be all bad.

Hey, one person is bad at analysing stats, stats must be bad.

Hey, there is a trend in stat analysis that is wrong, all stats analysis must be bad.

Confirmation bias is huge, and stats can literally say anything. That's why a mixed approach works good. I literally convinced myself that Korpikoski was actually a good hockey player. Looking back though, I ignored a lot of things in making that analysis, and they were pretty key items. I ignored: point production, corsi, and a few other stats. I concentrated on WOWYs until I found a scenario where he looked good.

Had I taken a more thorough approach, and given credence to all the stats at my disposal, and not narrowed in on the only stat that made him look good, I would have realised that he wasn't all that good. That said, if I had the time, I would've watch game footage, that would've helped prove out the numbers.



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2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.
2017/2018 - I'm drinking this Kool-Aid, in hopes that it's Drain-O.
2018/2019 - Another round of Drain-O, good sir!

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698523 is a reply to message #698518 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 13:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21

ziltoid wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 12:57

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:39

Goose wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:00

mightyreasoner wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...


Ya I think the argument they would make is that a properly built regression-based model like GAR would do a better job of accounting for teammate and competition effects than WOWYs

I'm not convinced that model exists yet. And I think some of those guys don't put a lot of weight in teammate and especially competition effects, which I don't really agree with either


One funny thing on this I noticed a little while ago. Someone made a big stink about how Klefbom was rated so highly on WAR/GAR models, I think it was Dellow. He dug in about how Klef's stats aren't elite without McDavid. Then all of a sudden Klefbom started to disappear from the tops of new models people have been posting on twitter. Seems the ideal approach now is creating models to make the best players be at the top of the model but they also need to keep Klefbom away from the top :)


Ya, I'm starting at a spreadsheet of preliminary results right now and Klefbom's got some warts. Benning is a beast, and if he continues on like last season I'm locking him up long term. Russell is a tire-fire who is killing Sekera, and Larsson had a solid season despite being pushed down by Klefbom in the d-zone.

If I'm setting up the D pairings:

Sekera - Larsson
Klefbom - Benning
Nurse/Auvitu - Russell/Gryba

That Auvitu signing is an excellent bet, btw.

So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.


I wasn't carving up Klef. I just thought it was funny how Klef got to the top of a bunch of models people were pumping on twitter and he basically became a hockey god overnight. Then, someone with some reputation (Dellow) questions it, then all of a sudden models seem to be tailored to ensure Klef can't get near the top anymore :)

I think Klef is going to be a top #1D for us. He's still very raw, but his talent is pretty damn apparent already. I do think it was dumb that he was being touted as a top 2 or 3 D in the league by people.

I think I know the reason why his numbers came out like they did. Lots of the stats people were using were relative stats, and a few things happened on the oilers that let Klef's relative numbers become godly. First, Russell. Russell barely played with Klef at all. But he did play a lot with our 2nd and 3rd best D which killed their analytics. 2nd, Klef got to play with McDavid a lot, a win for anyone. 3rd, Klef got demoted to the 3rd pair with Benning for a good amount of time after some periods where he was struggling defensively. That was the biggest boost to his stats, he gets to play with a good RHD against weak competition. All these factors combined made his relative stats godly.

Some of these factors, especially the context of his time with Benning are things you would only really know if you followed the Oilers all year. DIdn't really stop all these guys who were pumping their model from claiming Klef was already one of the top D in the NHL of course. Until they were called out, then they just went quiet on him and use him as a sign that your model sucks (if he ends up near the top).

[Updated on: Mon, 21 August 2017 14:03]


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- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698528 is a reply to message #698518 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 17:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 13:21

ziltoid wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 12:57

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:39

Goose wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:00

mightyreasoner wrote on Sun, 20 August 2017


Ignoring WOWYs are how you end up giving Mark Fayne 3.6 M / year...


Ya I think the argument they would make is that a properly built regression-based model like GAR would do a better job of accounting for teammate and competition effects than WOWYs

I'm not convinced that model exists yet. And I think some of those guys don't put a lot of weight in teammate and especially competition effects, which I don't really agree with either


One funny thing on this I noticed a little while ago. Someone made a big stink about how Klefbom was rated so highly on WAR/GAR models, I think it was Dellow. He dug in about how Klef's stats aren't elite without McDavid. Then all of a sudden Klefbom started to disappear from the tops of new models people have been posting on twitter. Seems the ideal approach now is creating models to make the best players be at the top of the model but they also need to keep Klefbom away from the top :)


Ya, I'm starting at a spreadsheet of preliminary results right now and Klefbom's got some warts. Benning is a beast, and if he continues on like last season I'm locking him up long term. Russell is a tire-fire who is killing Sekera, and Larsson had a solid season despite being pushed down by Klefbom in the d-zone.

If I'm setting up the D pairings:

Sekera - Larsson
Klefbom - Benning
Nurse/Auvitu - Russell/Gryba

That Auvitu signing is an excellent bet, btw.


So people are already getting ready to carve up Klefbom now? The guy is 24 yrs old and has 189 career NHL games.

Wow people. Wow.


I think there is a big difference between carving someone up and saying they have some genuine warts that we need to be aware of. People are clamouring to Klefbom as an offensive talent because he posted 38 points, but keep in mind only 22 of those points came 5 on 5... Larsson, who everyone views as the opposite of an offensive talent, posted all 19 of his points 5 on 5, which is about his average (and with basically 0 powerplay time). Klefbom is a good player and I am happy to have him in my top 4, but he is not untouchable, nor do I think he is, today, a bonafide top pairing d-man. Will he be one day? Maybe, but like you said, at 189 games it is too soon to tell. But it is not too soon to say that he has to work on some things, and I think this will be a telling year.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698476 is a reply to message #698473 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 12:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 11:44

So your argument is that if Strome does really well and replaces Eberle's regular season production then Chia only saved 1.5 million off the cap for a player 3 years younger who isn't a UFA the year after next? Then I agree what a terrible trade get out the pitch forks and torches. And when you only have small samples that's all you can go on.


No, I'm pretty skeptical that Strome reaches that level of production and it's a risk to assume he will. My issue is that everyone is using $3.5M as the cap savings to justify the trade. But that's only for the year that they don't really need it.

And we only have small samples if you assume the playoffs are so different than the regular season that they aren't even comparable. And even if you assume that, is it really a good idea to make sweeping changes to your team based off of 13 games? Again, as Adam mentioned, then the Red Wings should have punted Datsyuk after his first 25 playoff games. That would have worked out great for them.

I don't buy the argument that Eberle, a 7 year veteran and one of the most productive players in the NHL over his career, is incapable of performing in the playoffs because he's suddenly too scared.

[Updated on: Fri, 18 August 2017 12:57]


Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698483 is a reply to message #698476 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 14:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerfan79  is currently offline oilerfan79
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I know they didn't need it now but next summer they do and no GM is going to do Chia a favor by taking Eberle in a fair trade. At the least Chia would have gotten less at the worst he may have needed to add to Eberle to get the cap space. Not an ideal situation.
What everyone seems to ignore is that Eberle doesn't fit the system they want to play. Why continue to keep trying a square peg in a round hole. They want to play a different style so they went and got a player who may be able to play that style.
If Strome doesn't work out he's an RFA next year they can walk away or sign him to a lesser deal than he has now or trade him. If he does work out they can sign him to a bigger deal than he has now but probably still less than Eberle is getting or they can trade him for a greater return.
Eberle is locked in for 2 more years meaning you have to pay him this year and next. Strome you don't have to pay next year unless you want to. It's flexibility they created with the deal, it was a business deal and to a lesser extent a hockey deal. Both players needed new sweaters.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698484 is a reply to message #698483 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 15:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 14:41

I know they didn't need it now but next summer they do and no GM is going to do Chia a favor by taking Eberle in a fair trade. At the least Chia would have gotten less at the worst he may have needed to add to Eberle to get the cap space. Not an ideal situation.
What everyone seems to ignore is that Eberle doesn't fit the system they want to play. Why continue to keep trying a square peg in a round hole. They want to play a different style so they went and got a player who may be able to play that style.
If Strome doesn't work out he's an RFA next year they can walk away or sign him to a lesser deal than he has now or trade him. If he does work out they can sign him to a bigger deal than he has now but probably still less than Eberle is getting or they can trade him for a greater return.
Eberle is locked in for 2 more years meaning you have to pay him this year and next. Strome you don't have to pay next year unless you want to. It's flexibility they created with the deal, it was a business deal and to a lesser extent a hockey deal. Both players needed new sweaters.


I do think you're right. They decided that Eberle wasn't a fit.

One of the reasons I'm concerned about our coaching staff is that once again, we seem to have a coach who has a system and would rather we change personnel to fit that system, rather than adapt the system to fit the players he has. That's a concern, because we've seen it result in some big regression for several of our players, which hurts their market value. Whether they're the best fit or not, we should want to trade them at a high, not a low, and the Oilers haven't sold high on anyone for a long, long time (except for maybe Hall, but they didn't get full value there).

That lack of adaptability is probably one of the reasons why McLellan was outcoached in the playoffs, even by Randy Carlyle, who isnt exactly Scotty Bowman. He stubbornly insists on trying to play the game his way, and other teams adapt and beat the system.

If the Oilers get to the point where they don't want to pay Strome for the second year, it's a complete disaster.

The point that I think Goose and I were trying to make is that the greatest cap flexibility comes in the year where you don't need the cap space, and you might just need a right winger who can score...



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698486 is a reply to message #698484 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 15:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 15:01

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 14:41

I know they didn't need it now but next summer they do and no GM is going to do Chia a favor by taking Eberle in a fair trade. At the least Chia would have gotten less at the worst he may have needed to add to Eberle to get the cap space. Not an ideal situation.
What everyone seems to ignore is that Eberle doesn't fit the system they want to play. Why continue to keep trying a square peg in a round hole. They want to play a different style so they went and got a player who may be able to play that style.
If Strome doesn't work out he's an RFA next year they can walk away or sign him to a lesser deal than he has now or trade him. If he does work out they can sign him to a bigger deal than he has now but probably still less than Eberle is getting or they can trade him for a greater return.
Eberle is locked in for 2 more years meaning you have to pay him this year and next. Strome you don't have to pay next year unless you want to. It's flexibility they created with the deal, it was a business deal and to a lesser extent a hockey deal. Both players needed new sweaters.


I do think you're right. They decided that Eberle wasn't a fit.

One of the reasons I'm concerned about our coaching staff is that once again, we seem to have a coach who has a system and would rather we change personnel to fit that system, rather than adapt the system to fit the players he has. That's a concern, because we've seen it result in some big regression for several of our players, which hurts their market value. Whether they're the best fit or not, we should want to trade them at a high, not a low, and the Oilers haven't sold high on anyone for a long, long time (except for maybe Hall, but they didn't get full value there).

That lack of adaptability is probably one of the reasons why McLellan was outcoached in the playoffs, even by Randy Carlyle, who isnt exactly Scotty Bowman. He stubbornly insists on trying to play the game his way, and other teams adapt and beat the system.

If the Oilers get to the point where they don't want to pay Strome for the second year, it's a complete disaster.

The point that I think Goose and I were trying to make is that the greatest cap flexibility comes in the year where you don't need the cap space, and you might just need a right winger who can score...

Here is a question. Did you ever think that the issues with Hall, Eberle and Nuge and them "regressing" are maybe not so much the coaches but the players? You say the coaches created a system that doesn't adapt to certain players. It seemed to work pretty well for McDavid, Leon, Klef, Larsson, Maroon, Letestu, Kassian, Sekera, Russell, Talbot, Lucic put up similar numbers, Benning flourished, Nurse took a step. Gryba found a home. Basically, the only guys who didn't do well in it were the old guard. Yak, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Pouliot, Schultz. All the new players bought in and did well, 103 pts on the backs of all the guys I mentioned says they bought in. All the guys that struggled are from the old regime.

Yak couldn't figure it out with Eakins or McLellan, or Hitchcock or Yeo and is on to another team. So that is the systems fault?
Schultz was in shell shock from the previous coaches, he was in over his head in Edmonton. Went to a stacked team, barely played when he first got there, then last season figured it out. If he goes to say the Sabres or Arizona instead of the best team in the league, what are the chances he doesn't turn it around as much? Probably pretty slim. Good for him.
Pouliot was a lost cause. HE was a Eakins signing. WAY too much money and term, got bought out and signed for 1 mill for 1 year. Enough said.
Hall went to the Devils. He had 26 goals, 65 pts in 82 games for the Oilers and was the leader of a lousy, bottom feeding team. He went to the Devils on a bottom feeding team and had 20 g 53 pts in 72 games. Pro-rate that out, it's 23 goals, 61 pts in 82 games. So what changed on a new team with Hall? Not much. I am not saying its all Hall's fault. But he went from one weak team where he was the man to another team under a different coach where he was the man and the results ended up being pretty much the same.
Eberle hasn't been the same player since he got that shoulder injury a couple of seasons ago and the game has gotten faster and he hasn't sped up. What does the coaches system have to do with Eberle not improving his skating or the fact that with the game getting faster, you can't continue to dangle and dust the bloody puck off? You need to get the shot off quicker because you don't have as much time. What improvements in Eberle's game has he worked on in the last 7 years? Hasn't been skating, sure hasn't been a one time, he doesn't get his shot off faster. So maybe with Eberle and the Oilers, it wasn't that the system didn't cater to him, it was the game passing him.

Nuge has steadily went down production wise the last 2 seasons. But both McDavid and Leon who are better players came to the team and took his place. So what would you like the Oilers to do for Nuge? Decrease McDavid's mins and give them to Nuge? Put Nuge on the first unit PP and demote McDavid? I am not trying to be a smartass here. I see it as Nuge just getting passed by better players. If the Oilers don't win the lottery, it's Leon and Nuge as the 1-2 centers and guess what, Nuge is in McDavid's spot on the PP. But based on your comments, you feel the team is doing wrong to Nuge by playing the better players in Leon and McDavid ahead of him so I would like to hear your solution. They used to double shift Nuge when they needed a goal but now McDavid is the guy. I guess they should go back to double shifting Nuge and leave the best player in the world on the bench?



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698490 is a reply to message #698486 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 17:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 15:48

Adam wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 15:01

oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 14:41

I know they didn't need it now but next summer they do and no GM is going to do Chia a favor by taking Eberle in a fair trade. At the least Chia would have gotten less at the worst he may have needed to add to Eberle to get the cap space. Not an ideal situation.
What everyone seems to ignore is that Eberle doesn't fit the system they want to play. Why continue to keep trying a square peg in a round hole. They want to play a different style so they went and got a player who may be able to play that style.
If Strome doesn't work out he's an RFA next year they can walk away or sign him to a lesser deal than he has now or trade him. If he does work out they can sign him to a bigger deal than he has now but probably still less than Eberle is getting or they can trade him for a greater return.
Eberle is locked in for 2 more years meaning you have to pay him this year and next. Strome you don't have to pay next year unless you want to. It's flexibility they created with the deal, it was a business deal and to a lesser extent a hockey deal. Both players needed new sweaters.


I do think you're right. They decided that Eberle wasn't a fit.

One of the reasons I'm concerned about our coaching staff is that once again, we seem to have a coach who has a system and would rather we change personnel to fit that system, rather than adapt the system to fit the players he has. That's a concern, because we've seen it result in some big regression for several of our players, which hurts their market value. Whether they're the best fit or not, we should want to trade them at a high, not a low, and the Oilers haven't sold high on anyone for a long, long time (except for maybe Hall, but they didn't get full value there).

That lack of adaptability is probably one of the reasons why McLellan was outcoached in the playoffs, even by Randy Carlyle, who isnt exactly Scotty Bowman. He stubbornly insists on trying to play the game his way, and other teams adapt and beat the system.

If the Oilers get to the point where they don't want to pay Strome for the second year, it's a complete disaster.

The point that I think Goose and I were trying to make is that the greatest cap flexibility comes in the year where you don't need the cap space, and you might just need a right winger who can score...

Here is a question. Did you ever think that the issues with Hall, Eberle and Nuge and them "regressing" are maybe not so much the coaches but the players? You say the coaches created a system that doesn't adapt to certain players. It seemed to work pretty well for McDavid, Leon, Klef, Larsson, Maroon, Letestu, Kassian, Sekera, Russell, Talbot, Lucic put up similar numbers, Benning flourished, Nurse took a step. Gryba found a home. Basically, the only guys who didn't do well in it were the old guard. Yak, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Pouliot, Schultz. All the new players bought in and did well, 103 pts on the backs of all the guys I mentioned says they bought in. All the guys that struggled are from the old regime.

Yak couldn't figure it out with Eakins or McLellan, or Hitchcock or Yeo and is on to another team. So that is the systems fault?
Schultz was in shell shock from the previous coaches, he was in over his head in Edmonton. Went to a stacked team, barely played when he first got there, then last season figured it out. If he goes to say the Sabres or Arizona instead of the best team in the league, what are the chances he doesn't turn it around as much? Probably pretty slim. Good for him.
Pouliot was a lost cause. HE was a Eakins signing. WAY too much money and term, got bought out and signed for 1 mill for 1 year. Enough said.
Hall went to the Devils. He had 26 goals, 65 pts in 82 games for the Oilers and was the leader of a lousy, bottom feeding team. He went to the Devils on a bottom feeding team and had 20 g 53 pts in 72 games. Pro-rate that out, it's 23 goals, 61 pts in 82 games. So what changed on a new team with Hall? Not much. I am not saying its all Hall's fault. But he went from one weak team where he was the man to another team under a different coach where he was the man and the results ended up being pretty much the same.
Eberle hasn't been the same player since he got that shoulder injury a couple of seasons ago and the game has gotten faster and he hasn't sped up. What does the coaches system have to do with Eberle not improving his skating or the fact that with the game getting faster, you can't continue to dangle and dust the bloody puck off? You need to get the shot off quicker because you don't have as much time. What improvements in Eberle's game has he worked on in the last 7 years? Hasn't been skating, sure hasn't been a one time, he doesn't get his shot off faster. So maybe with Eberle and the Oilers, it wasn't that the system didn't cater to him, it was the game passing him.

Nuge has steadily went down production wise the last 2 seasons. But both McDavid and Leon who are better players came to the team and took his place. So what would you like the Oilers to do for Nuge? Decrease McDavid's mins and give them to Nuge? Put Nuge on the first unit PP and demote McDavid? I am not trying to be a smartass here. I see it as Nuge just getting passed by better players. If the Oilers don't win the lottery, it's Leon and Nuge as the 1-2 centers and guess what, Nuge is in McDavid's spot on the PP. But based on your comments, you feel the team is doing wrong to Nuge by playing the better players in Leon and McDavid ahead of him so I would like to hear your solution. They used to double shift Nuge when they needed a goal but now McDavid is the guy. I guess they should go back to double shifting Nuge and leave the best player in the world on the bench?


I don't believe I said anything of the sort. No one is suggesting we give McDavid's minutes to Nugent-Hopkins. (Although if you wanted to push his numbers and possibly his value, I might consider playing him as McDavid's wing for at least portions of the season).

When multiple players have their worst season at the same time, the coaches should be looking internally at what they're doing and what impact it's having.


It is possible that we've had several players (Schultz, Pouliot, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic...) over two years who have attitude problems, who were unhappy, who were just not a fit but it's worth noting that almost everyone who's struggled are the Oilers secondary scorers.

The 3rd and 4th liners have generally been okay. Not great, but not bad. Letestu had a tremendous season on the powerplay. McDavid is the best player in the game. He's not getting denied no matter what - although it's worth noting that the game plan when he's on the ice looks different than when anyone else is on. McLellan's team doesn't dump as often when McDavid's on the ice...they give him the puck and let him carry it. For some reason that's not the same with any of the other centres.

The only other players who would fall in to the scorer category and have not regressed are Draisaitl and Maroon. Both of those players have pretty significant bumps in their numbers when they play with McDavid though...would they struggle more if they weren't spending so much time alongside #97?

Personally, I believe the system is flawed, and the fact that we play differently with McDavid on the ice is one of the reasons for the success for those who play with him (that and McDavid's sublime abilities). Giving up and trying to re-obtain possession all over the ice with the second line is a disaster. For the third and fourth liners, they're still losing the possession battles, but they aren't expected to put up 50+ points, so it's not as glaring.

Again, as with so much with the Oilers, McDavid, Talbot and a good powerplay covers for a lot of the team's sins.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698472 is a reply to message #698470 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 12:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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oilerfan79 wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 11:51

Did we watch the same playoffs? Eberle was a passenger at best and an anchor at worst how does he help them win now? Stome has 8 points in 15 playoffs games for his career Eberle has 2 points in 13 playoff games that's 4 times as many point in only 2 more games that to me shows a win now mentality. You may not like the trade and really think Chia got hosed but regular season stats mean absolutely nothing when the playoffs come around so your they aren't trying to win now argument doesn't hold water. They got heavier Strome outweighs Eberle by 20lbs, they got faster we all know Eberle is not a great skater, they got more versatile Strome can play RW & C and he outscores him 4 to one over his career when the games really matter.

Chia kept himself out of cap hell next summer by losing 3.5 million off the cap and shouldn't have to get into the situation like he did in Boston where he had to give up a quality piece just to get back under the cap. If they had kept Eberle do you think every GM would say sure I'll help you out of a bind or would they say yeah I'll take him and Nurse for picks or better yet I don't want Eberle you're stuck with him I'll take Larsson or Klefbom. GM's will see the weakness and exploit it. Chia was not shopping around Boychuck all summer he was shopping others but the other GM's weren't biting so he was stuck moving a quality piece to get under the cap so they didn't start losing draft picks.


You're talking about some incredibly small sample sizes. Based on that, after the first 20 playoff games of their career, you'd have been certain that Fernando Pisani was worth MUCH more than Pavel Datsyuk.

Eberle had a bad playoff. There's no denying that. It doesn't mean he'll always have bad playoffs.

Maybe Strome is a playoff beast but it's really hard to know for sure with such a small sample size.

You're giving a bunch of insight in to Chiarelli's thinking several summers ago...do you have any sourcing for that? Or is that just speculation?

And Klefbom and Larsson are in no danger of being moved. They're two of the only cap deals we have on the roster. They're going to be here a long time.

By your logic, should we also flush Nugent-Hopkins now? After all, next summer we'll be heading in to Cap Hell...

I'd argue that cap hell before a Cup run is the result of poor management. It's inevitable if you have a team that goes deep in the playoffs, but if you haven't done that yet, then you've made some mistakes in the deals you've signed.

I point again to the fact that even most of the Chia apologists around here have voiced that they think that the Russell deal is longer than they'd like for more than they liked...that they wish the Draisaitl deal was a little less rich. That the second year for Gryba seems a bit surprising.

The Oilers haven't managed to convince anyone but Connor McDavid to sign for anything but top dollar, and that's a massive problem. Don't sign Russell to a long deal and you're already in a better situation if you're forced to keep Jordan Eberle next year.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698480 is a reply to message #698472 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 13:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerfan79  is currently offline oilerfan79
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It's just speculation, just like when you speculate that in every deal he's made he could have gotten more or that he over payed.

Strome has not had a good start to his career, but it doesn't mean he can't turn it around. Sometimes players need a second chance to get their careers on track see Justin Schultz.

Of course Klef and Larsson are safe but what if they are the only players other GM's will take off your hands or you need to add a sweetener like a first round pick to get someone to take Eberle would you be happy with that. You have no choice but to get under the cap.

You are right they could have kept Eberle. I'm fairly certain they didn't want to. He can't play the heavy and fast game that the coach wants to. I believe that Chia would have traded him last summer or this season if he got the deal he wanted but it wasn't there and Eberle's performance in the playoffs sealed his fate. Why keep a player that won't buy into the system around, it just creates distractions.

So what's the going rate for #4 dmen? Russell played there last year and will play there again this year. I can tell you don't like it but the coach seems to trust him in that position, who are we to say he's wrong? Top 4 dmen don't sign for much less and Sekera's injury put him in a bit of a bind he needed dmen this year he could have rolled the dice on one of the kids stepping up or maybe that Cody Franson wouldn't get skated by like a pylon 100 times this year. Instead he went with the devil he knew and signed Russell, I'm also sure he could have played hard ball on term or dollars and possibly lost the player and been left with one of the kids or Franson to start the year but he played it safe. You mention 2 years for Gryba but it's low dollars and depth on d is never a bad idea so I have no issue with it.

Nuge won't see next August in Edmonton. He'll be traded shortly after the season ends and the only reason he's still here is that his value is at an all time low. A decade of losing has tarnished the reputation of all the old guard and my only hope is that he finds a bit of his game again so they might get something in return. But I can't imagine that without a big turn around we'll be very happy with what they get back. The market for under producing centermen that can't wins faceoffs is very strong right now.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698466 is a reply to message #698453 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 11:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 07:56


I see Nick Bonino as a really good 3rd line center that has enough offensively ability that he can moonlight in short spurts when injury happens as a #2. He signed with Nashville for 4.1 mill which I think is top dollar for 3rd line center. On paper, based on his draft pedigree and what Nuge is supposed to be able to do offensively, Nuge should be a better 2 way center. But on the ice, is he actually that much better? I can't answer that but I do believe that Nuge isn't 2 mill better than Bonino.


A lot of Nuge's offensive struggles can be attributed to his reduction in PP time. And this shouldn't really be a shock, he's always been a good PP player, all the way back to his junior days.

Here are his EV scoring rates per 60 for the past 5 years with his total season point in all situations in parentheses:

12/13 - 1.25 (24 in 40 games)
13/14 - 1.67 (56)
14/15 - 1.99 (56)
15/16 - 1.62 (34 in 55 games)
16/17 - 1.67 (43)

And his PP TOI/game:

12/13 - 3:02
13/14 - 2:59
14/15 - 2:43
15/16 - 2:36
16/17 - 1:53

So we can see that he had one really good year scoring at EV, but that last season was pretty consistent with his career norms. But he was getting almost a minute less per game of PP time (and playing on the 2nd unit).

I agree with you in that he's kind of been squeezed out in Edmonton in that the 1st unit PP last year was good without him. If the Oilers want to get him back to being a 55+ point player, they are going to need to find him more PP time. Not sure if that's possible, or if they even really want to.

The issue of course is that they're not trading RNH for Nick Bonino. Not based on his current production. All the knocks on Eberle from the playoffs can also be applied to RNH, and the other GMs also realize that the Oilers are in a cap crunch and that they don't want to be paying their 3rd line C $6M.

Using the Eberle trade as a rough guide, I think they're more likely to go full salary dump and get someone like Nick Cousins (basically random name I grabbed, as opposed to an actual idea of who I think they will trade for), than they are to get someone like Nick Bonino.

I think we can all agree that it's not a great situation for the Oilers.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698478 is a reply to message #698466 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 13:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 11:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 07:56


I see Nick Bonino as a really good 3rd line center that has enough offensively ability that he can moonlight in short spurts when injury happens as a #2. He signed with Nashville for 4.1 mill which I think is top dollar for 3rd line center. On paper, based on his draft pedigree and what Nuge is supposed to be able to do offensively, Nuge should be a better 2 way center. But on the ice, is he actually that much better? I can't answer that but I do believe that Nuge isn't 2 mill better than Bonino.


A lot of Nuge's offensive struggles can be attributed to his reduction in PP time. And this shouldn't really be a shock, he's always been a good PP player, all the way back to his junior days.

Here are his EV scoring rates per 60 for the past 5 years with his total season point in all situations in parentheses:

12/13 - 1.25 (24 in 40 games)
13/14 - 1.67 (56)
14/15 - 1.99 (56)
15/16 - 1.62 (34 in 55 games)
16/17 - 1.67 (43)

And his PP TOI/game:

12/13 - 3:02
13/14 - 2:59
14/15 - 2:43
15/16 - 2:36
16/17 - 1:53

So we can see that he had one really good year scoring at EV, but that last season was pretty consistent with his career norms. But he was getting almost a minute less per game of PP time (and playing on the 2nd unit).

I agree with you in that he's kind of been squeezed out in Edmonton in that the 1st unit PP last year was good without him. If the Oilers want to get him back to being a 55+ point player, they are going to need to find him more PP time. Not sure if that's possible, or if they even really want to.

The issue of course is that they're not trading RNH for Nick Bonino. Not based on his current production. All the knocks on Eberle from the playoffs can also be applied to RNH, and the other GMs also realize that the Oilers are in a cap crunch and that they don't want to be paying their 3rd line C $6M.

Using the Eberle trade as a rough guide, I think they're more likely to go full salary dump and get someone like Nick Cousins (basically random name I grabbed, as opposed to an actual idea of who I think they will trade for), than they are to get someone like Nick Bonino.

I think we can all agree that it's not a great situation for the Oilers.


I don't disagree with you one bit. (I know shocking). Nuge has been passed by better players. McDavid, obviously but Leon as well. Like you said, I don't see a place where Nuge can get back the minutes he lost. He used to be the Oilers #1 center, he's not anymore. On the PP, McDavid is there automatically. You need a net front presence so that is either Lucic or Maroon. He can't play the point because you need at least 1 dman back there in my opinion and he doesn't have a good enough shot. With a left handed McDavid, you have to have at least 1 right shot for one timers, Nuge is left. So it's either Leon or Nuge and sorry, Leon is a superior player. So like you, I don't know how they get his points up based on lack of playing time.

To your point about the Oilers cap problem. I again agree. GM's aren't dumb, they know that the Oilers are going to have problems. They have the best player in the world on their team that will make 12.5 mill next year. Basically the salary of 2-3 really good players combined. People can scoff at that number but he legit could have gotten more and I doubt there are too many teams if any who would gladly pay that if they could. When Toews and Kopitar make over 10, sorry, McDavid is worth way more than that. It wouldn't shock me if Taverese comes in at over 10. Tavares is a hell of a player but McDavid is a lot better. People can complain about the Leon contract. I think that in the end it will work out to be just fine but he's not that grossly overpaid given the market. Like I said in another post, if Johansen makes 8, Leon has to make close to that because he's better.

Like I listed, if you go down the list of Oilers salaries, there aren't many guys that Chia brought in that are grossly overpaid. People don't have to like Russell but to replace Russell with someone else who people think is better, you aren't getting that guy for less than 4 mill. I even listed Hamonic who's the only guy under 4 mill who is better than Russell. He is underpaid and is only 142k less than Russell. So even if they got Hamonic, they really aren't saving any money. In the case of Eberle, I know many don't like the return and don't like the timing. Adam even a few posts up made the point that the trade was made with too much long term thinking. So the better alternative is to wait one more season, ride out Eberle, then trade him for even less than Strome because he might better your chances of winning the cup slightly? To me that makes no sense.

I would have loved it if the Oilers could have somehow kept Eberle and keep Nuge but I don't see how. There isn't enough money to go around to pay those two 6 mill. People complain about bad asset management by the Oilers and selling too low. But isn't it better that the Oilers traded Eberle now and got back a live body that at worst is a top 9 forward, hopefully he can play higher vs waiting until the last minute when you have a gun to your head and have to take nothing back? I would like to think so. But I sure still see lots of people saying they should have kept him to "go for it." If they did keep Eberle, what happens if they don't win the cup, then what? Would people be happy if they kept Eberle, didn't win the cup and then were forced to dump Eberle for a pick and a mediocre prospect because they have to dump all his salary?

[Updated on: Fri, 18 August 2017 13:13]


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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698479 is a reply to message #698478 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 13:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:06


Like I listed, if you go down the list of Oilers salaries, there aren't many guys that Chia brought in that are grossly overpaid. People don't have to like Russell but to replace Russell with someone else who people think is better, you aren't getting that guy for less than 4 mill. I even listed Hamonic who's the only guy under 4 mill who is better than Russell. He is underpaid and is only 142k less than Russell. So even if they got Hamonic, they really aren't saving any money. In the case of Eberle, I know many don't like the return and don't like the timing. Adam even a few posts up made the point that the trade was made with too much long term thinking. So the better alternative is to wait one more season, ride out Eberle, then trade him for even less than Strome because he might better your chances of winning the cup slightly? To me that makes no sense.


I don't know about Hamonic being the only guy under $4M that is better than Russell, but I agree that trading for a good defenceman on a good contract can be difficult. One of the issues I have is that regardless of what you think of Russell's ability, the Oilers defence didn't get any better, but they got more expensive and have less flexibility for the future. Everyone is assuming that they can just trade Russell in 2 years if they need to. But again that carries risk, and imo, taking on that risk was not necessary.

There were other options. Schlemko got traded for a 5th round pick, he's half the price and a reasonable stop gap. Even the price for Hjalmarsson wasn't egregious and that would have been a move that would have made the defence markedly better.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698482 is a reply to message #698479 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 13:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 13:18

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:06


Like I listed, if you go down the list of Oilers salaries, there aren't many guys that Chia brought in that are grossly overpaid. People don't have to like Russell but to replace Russell with someone else who people think is better, you aren't getting that guy for less than 4 mill. I even listed Hamonic who's the only guy under 4 mill who is better than Russell. He is underpaid and is only 142k less than Russell. So even if they got Hamonic, they really aren't saving any money. In the case of Eberle, I know many don't like the return and don't like the timing. Adam even a few posts up made the point that the trade was made with too much long term thinking. So the better alternative is to wait one more season, ride out Eberle, then trade him for even less than Strome because he might better your chances of winning the cup slightly? To me that makes no sense.


I don't know about Hamonic being the only guy under $4M that is better than Russell, but I agree that trading for a good defenceman on a good contract can be difficult. One of the issues I have is that regardless of what you think of Russell's ability, the Oilers defence didn't get any better, but they got more expensive and have less flexibility for the future. Everyone is assuming that they can just trade Russell in 2 years if they need to. But again that carries risk, and imo, taking on that risk was not necessary.

There were other options. Schlemko got traded for a 5th round pick, he's half the price and a reasonable stop gap. Even the price for Hjalmarsson wasn't egregious and that would have been a move that would have made the defence markedly better.


How did the defense get overly more expensive if at all? Davidson was making 1.425 mill, he's gone, so that is off the books. Gryba was making 950 last year, he makes 900 now so they saved 50K. Fayne and his 3.625 is still here. Russell was making 3.1 I believe, now he makes 4. So there is a bump of 900K. This Auvitu which people seem to be high on makes 700k.

So add it up. 900+700 - 50 - 1.425 = + 125K So they went up by 125K. That's a concern to you? In free agency, who was available that is better?
36 yr old Hainsey at 3 mill? No thanks.
They could have traded for Methot I guess. He's 32 and makes 900K more than Russell. He's not fast, a worse puck mover and is a defensive dman. I don't see a fit there.
You mentioned Hjarmlsson. Well the Coyotes traded Connor Murphy and a prospect to get him. Connor Murphy is a 24 yr old, right shot #4 dman who makes 3.85. The Oilers don't have a Murphy to trade so how would they get him?
THey could have tried to sign Girardi who makes 3 mill. But he can't skate and is probably worse than Russell.
Schultz wasn't coming here and makes 5.5 now.
The Ducks somehow escaped not trading any good dmen.
Vegs took mostly crap dmen on expiring contracts.
The "big" UFA's were Alzner 4.625, Smitt, 4.35, Kulikov, 4.33, Del Zotto signed for 3 mill. Mike Stone signed for 3.5 mill but the Flames felt so highly of him, they felt the need to go out and trade for Hamonic. Schlemko is an expensive #6.

You are right, the Oilers stayed pat with their defense. I can sort of understand why to a degree because that defense got them over 100 pts and if it weren't for suspect refing, they could have been in the conference finals. Where they will get better hopefully is the continued growth of 24 yr old Klefbom and Larsson who are entering in their prime now and in theory shouldn't have peaked yet. There is definitely room to grow for Benning and Nurse. When it comes to Russell, I keep asking who was out there for the Oilers to go get other than Russell. The UFA"s I listed were more expensive and I don't see as better options. On the trade market, there wasn't a lot.



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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698491 is a reply to message #698482 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 17:58 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:46


You are right, the Oilers stayed pat with their defense. I can sort of understand why to a degree because that defense got them over 100 pts and if it weren't for suspect refing, they could have been in the conference finals. Where they will get better hopefully is the continued growth of 24 yr old Klefbom and Larsson who are entering in their prime now and in theory shouldn't have peaked yet. There is definitely room to grow for Benning and Nurse. When it comes to Russell, I keep asking who was out there for the Oilers to go get other than Russell. The UFA"s I listed were more expensive and I don't see as better options. On the trade market, there wasn't a lot.


So because they had a good season, don't change anything? I can kind of buy into that in some sense, but I guess I don't think Russell contributed as much to that success as you do. The other concern I have is the Oilers potentially hamstringing themselves in the future by having 2 of their top 4 with NMC, so when Benning and Nurse need new deals in a year, you can't clear space to make room for them.

I guess where I see a disconnect is the idea that the Oilers had to keep Russell because they had a good season but the same doesn't apply with respect to moving Eberle? That forward group got them to 103 points, so why dump Eberle for a lesser player when you don't need the cap space right now?

[Updated on: Fri, 18 August 2017 18:01]


Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Comparing Chiarelli's team without McDavid [message #698493 is a reply to message #698491 ]
Fri, 18 August 2017 18:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 17:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 18 August 2017 12:46


You are right, the Oilers stayed pat with their defense. I can sort of understand why to a degree because that defense got them over 100 pts and if it weren't for suspect refing, they could have been in the conference finals. Where they will get better hopefully is the continued growth of 24 yr old Klefbom and Larsson who are entering in their prime now and in theory shouldn't have peaked yet. There is definitely room to grow for Benning and Nurse. When it comes to Russell, I keep asking who was out there for the Oilers to go get other than Russell. The UFA"s I listed were more expensive and I don't see as better options. On the trade market, there wasn't a lot.


So because they had a good season, don't change anything? I can kind of buy into that in some sense, but I guess I don't think Russell contributed as much to that success as you do. The other concern I have is the Oilers potentially hamstringing themselves in the future by having 2 of their top 4 with NMC, so when Benning and Nurse need new deals in a year, you can't clear space to make room for them.

I guess where I see a disconnect is the idea that the Oilers had to keep Russell because they had a good season but the same doesn't apply with respect to moving Eberle? That forward group got them to 103 points, so why dump Eberle for a lesser player when you don't need the cap space right now?


Or why buyout Pouliot when you don't need the cap space now. After all, he was part of that team too and that team had 103 points!

Personally, I look at what they accomplished and say it was nice to be back in the playoffs again, but I'm not satisfied with that for next year and I didn't see enough out of that team to believe they're ready to be Cup Champs this year - and they need to be contending. The time for patience is long since gone...



"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
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