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 Future Oilers contracts [message #697873]
Mon, 24 July 2017 11:32 Go to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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With guys like Nurse and Benning both needing new contracts at the end of this season, would anyone roll the dice and try to sign these guys to an extension now rather than wait until after the season? Both will be coming off their final years of their ELC. Benning makes 925K, Nurse makes 863,333K. If you could offer these guys around 3-3.5 mill over 3 or 4 years, (assuming they would accept) would you do it?

It would definitely be a gamble. Both are young dmen but have improved. If they plateau and end up just being top 6 guys, then you are grossly overpaying them for being in your 3rd pair. But if they continue to get better, you have 2 guys who will for sure be underpaid. I look at what the Preds did with Ellis. He is making 2.5 mill and grossly underpaid.



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 Re: Future Oilers contracts [message #697875 is a reply to message #697873 ]
Mon, 24 July 2017 11:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:32

With guys like Nurse and Benning both needing new contracts at the end of this season, would anyone roll the dice and try to sign these guys to an extension now rather than wait until after the season? Both will be coming off their final years of their ELC. Benning makes 925K, Nurse makes 863,333K. If you could offer these guys around 3-3.5 mill over 3 or 4 years, (assuming they would accept) would you do it?

It would definitely be a gamble. Both are young dmen but have improved. If they plateau and end up just being top 6 guys, then you are grossly overpaying them for being in your 3rd pair. But if they continue to get better, you have 2 guys who will for sure be underpaid. I look at what the Preds did with Ellis. He is making 2.5 mill and grossly underpaid.


Yes. If I was GM, I would try to get these guys under cap friendly bridge deals, signed this summer at relatively cheap numbers.

But if you were their agents, what would you tell them to do?

Especially for Benning, who's going to see more PP time this year with Sekera out for half the season, there's a very high likelihood of increased prominence and performance this year. Signing early won't allow you to reflect that. A big performance from him, and he might be able to command double what he could get right now or more - plus ask for term if he wants it.

There's not a lot of competition for D spots, so the risk is minimal right now. The guys that the Oilers have added are behind these guys on the depth chart and the team's brought in no one who's going to take Sekera's minutes. Even if they get hurt, there's a good chance that the replacements that the Oilers can bring in to the lineup make these guys look even more valuable.

If I'm the agent for either guy, I'm probably telling them to roll the dice and wait one more year before signing.



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 Re: Future Oilers contracts [message #697878 is a reply to message #697875 ]
Mon, 24 July 2017 12:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:42

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:32

With guys like Nurse and Benning both needing new contracts at the end of this season, would anyone roll the dice and try to sign these guys to an extension now rather than wait until after the season? Both will be coming off their final years of their ELC. Benning makes 925K, Nurse makes 863,333K. If you could offer these guys around 3-3.5 mill over 3 or 4 years, (assuming they would accept) would you do it?

It would definitely be a gamble. Both are young dmen but have improved. If they plateau and end up just being top 6 guys, then you are grossly overpaying them for being in your 3rd pair. But if they continue to get better, you have 2 guys who will for sure be underpaid. I look at what the Preds did with Ellis. He is making 2.5 mill and grossly underpaid.


Yes. If I was GM, I would try to get these guys under cap friendly bridge deals, signed this summer at relatively cheap numbers.

But if you were their agents, what would you tell them to do?

Especially for Benning, who's going to see more PP time this year with Sekera out for half the season, there's a very high likelihood of increased prominence and performance this year. Signing early won't allow you to reflect that. A big performance from him, and he might be able to command double what he could get right now or more - plus ask for term if he wants it.

There's not a lot of competition for D spots, so the risk is minimal right now. The guys that the Oilers have added are behind these guys on the depth chart and the team's brought in no one who's going to take Sekera's minutes. Even if they get hurt, there's a good chance that the replacements that the Oilers can bring in to the lineup make these guys look even more valuable.

If I'm the agent for either guy, I'm probably telling them to roll the dice and wait one more year before signing.

I do agree with you. If I am the Oilers I take a gamble ant try to sign them early to save some money but if I am the agent, I would probably roll the dice and wait. But I wonder what the number would have to be to get a Benning as an example to sign early and not wait.

I will circle back to Ellis. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-ellis
In his first 2 seasons of his ELC, he was up and down between the minors and the NHL. Then in his last year of his ELC, he played almost a full season and put up 27 pts in 80 games. Not bad. Then he signs a 5 yr deal for 2.5 mill per. Then he goes 27pts in 58 games, then 32 in 79, then 38 in 71. So he is a steal now. So in the case of Ellis, I am a little surprised he committed to 5 yrs after a 27 pt season in the 13-14 year. If he signs a 1 yr deal after that, he would have had a 27 pt in 58 games and would have signed for way more.



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 Re: Future Oilers contracts [message #697914 is a reply to message #697878 ]
Tue, 25 July 2017 09:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Adam wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:42


RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:26


Yes. If I was GM, I would try to get these guys under cap friendly bridge deals, signed this summer at relatively cheap numbers.

But if you were their agents, what would you tell them to do?

Especially for Benning, who's going to see more PP time this year with Sekera out for half the season, there's a very high likelihood of increased prominence and performance this year. Signing early won't allow you to reflect that. A big performance from him, and he might be able to command double what he could get right now or more - plus ask for term if he wants it.

There's not a lot of competition for D spots, so the risk is minimal right now. The guys that the Oilers have added are behind these guys on the depth chart and the team's brought in no one who's going to take Sekera's minutes. Even if they get hurt, there's a good chance that the replacements that the Oilers can bring in to the lineup make these guys look even more valuable.

If I'm the agent for either guy, I'm probably telling them to roll the dice and wait one more year before signing.

I do agree with you. If I am the Oilers I take a gamble ant try to sign them early to save some money but if I am the agent, I would probably roll the dice and wait. But I wonder what the number would have to be to get a Benning as an example to sign early and not wait.

I will circle back to Ellis. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-ellis
In his first 2 seasons of his ELC, he was up and down between the minors and the NHL. Then in his last year of his ELC, he played almost a full season and put up 27 pts in 80 games. Not bad. Then he signs a 5 yr deal for 2.5 mill per. Then he goes 27pts in 58 games, then 32 in 79, then 38 in 71. So he is a steal now. So in the case of Ellis, I am a little surprised he committed to 5 yrs after a 27 pt season in the 13-14 year. If he signs a 1 yr deal after that, he would have had a 27 pt in 58 games and would have signed for way more.


I think there's still incentive for these guys to sign a longer term deal now. I'll disagree a bit with Adam as I think that especially the agent might be recommending signing a 4 or 5 year deal now. The average NHL career is only that long. While Nurse was a highly touted prospect and Benning had a great rookie campaign, progress isn't always linear. And while it's necessary for Nurse and Benning to have 100% confidence in their ability to continue to improve, the agent needs to realize that there's at least a decent chance that their client may take a step back next season. It happens all the time.

If you can secure a 5 year deal, say for $15M, that sets your client up for life, then you have to at least consider it. That's why guys like Ellis, or Klefbom signed long-term deals.



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 Re: Future Oilers contracts [message #697915 is a reply to message #697914 ]
Tue, 25 July 2017 09:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan is currently online RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Tue, 25 July 2017 09:37

Adam wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:42


RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:26


Yes. If I was GM, I would try to get these guys under cap friendly bridge deals, signed this summer at relatively cheap numbers.

But if you were their agents, what would you tell them to do?

Especially for Benning, who's going to see more PP time this year with Sekera out for half the season, there's a very high likelihood of increased prominence and performance this year. Signing early won't allow you to reflect that. A big performance from him, and he might be able to command double what he could get right now or more - plus ask for term if he wants it.

There's not a lot of competition for D spots, so the risk is minimal right now. The guys that the Oilers have added are behind these guys on the depth chart and the team's brought in no one who's going to take Sekera's minutes. Even if they get hurt, there's a good chance that the replacements that the Oilers can bring in to the lineup make these guys look even more valuable.

If I'm the agent for either guy, I'm probably telling them to roll the dice and wait one more year before signing.

I do agree with you. If I am the Oilers I take a gamble ant try to sign them early to save some money but if I am the agent, I would probably roll the dice and wait. But I wonder what the number would have to be to get a Benning as an example to sign early and not wait.

I will circle back to Ellis. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/ryan-ellis
In his first 2 seasons of his ELC, he was up and down between the minors and the NHL. Then in his last year of his ELC, he played almost a full season and put up 27 pts in 80 games. Not bad. Then he signs a 5 yr deal for 2.5 mill per. Then he goes 27pts in 58 games, then 32 in 79, then 38 in 71. So he is a steal now. So in the case of Ellis, I am a little surprised he committed to 5 yrs after a 27 pt season in the 13-14 year. If he signs a 1 yr deal after that, he would have had a 27 pt in 58 games and would have signed for way more.


I think there's still incentive for these guys to sign a longer term deal now. I'll disagree a bit with Adam as I think that especially the agent might be recommending signing a 4 or 5 year deal now. The average NHL career is only that long. While Nurse was a highly touted prospect and Benning had a great rookie campaign, progress isn't always linear. And while it's necessary for Nurse and Benning to have 100% confidence in their ability to continue to improve, the agent needs to realize that there's at least a decent chance that their client may take a step back next season. It happens all the time.

If you can secure a 5 year deal, say for $15M, that sets your client up for life, then you have to at least consider it. That's why guys like Ellis, or Klefbom signed long-term deals.


I agree with you. While I am sure these guys have the mindset of "betting on themselves", you never know what can happen. If you can sign a 3 or 4 yr deal and get millions in the bank, if you blow out your knee, you always have that money. Plus they are young, their will be more contracts in their future.
If I was them, I wouldn't sign a super long term contract, say 3-4 yrs. But get that 10 mill or so in the bank. Then when that deal comes up you can hit a home run.



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 Re: Future Oilers contracts [message #697877 is a reply to message #697873 ]
Mon, 24 July 2017 12:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 24 July 2017 11:32

With guys like Nurse and Benning both needing new contracts at the end of this season, would anyone roll the dice and try to sign these guys to an extension now rather than wait until after the season? Both will be coming off their final years of their ELC. Benning makes 925K, Nurse makes 863,333K. If you could offer these guys around 3-3.5 mill over 3 or 4 years, (assuming they would accept) would you do it?

It would definitely be a gamble. Both are young dmen but have improved. If they plateau and end up just being top 6 guys, then you are grossly overpaying them for being in your 3rd pair. But if they continue to get better, you have 2 guys who will for sure be underpaid. I look at what the Preds did with Ellis. He is making 2.5 mill and grossly underpaid.


Different situation with both guys.

Benning, if he plays like he did most of last season, before his injury, he would be a bargain at 3-3.5M as he further develops. Although, I'm not sure he would take more than a 2 year bridge. Not sure he takes more than 2-3 years, he probably feels he has a lot to prove still, and solid 2nd pair guys are 4M+ now.

Nurse, he needs to take some big steps to be more than a ~2M D IMO. I don't think there is that much risk from the Oilers side to just let this year play out and see where he ends up.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Future Oilers contracts [message #697998 is a reply to message #697873 ]
Thu, 27 July 2017 15:19 Go to previous message
Pseudoreality  is currently offline Pseudoreality
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I'm not a fan of the early contracts for anyone but star players. I also like the bridge contracts, because it is typically a win-win for the team. If the player on a bridge contact does really well, then great, you got yourself a good player that you can sign or trade. If the player does poorly, then you are not locked in long-term.


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