| Oilers' First 15 Games [message #437863] |
Fri, 03 October 2008 13:59  |
 MJ
Messages: 2035
Registered: November 1997
Location: Victoria
2 Cups
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So we're getting close enough to the regular season commencing. With a million and one question marks about the team, may as well put some fearful predictions on the record.
I choose 15 games as the Oilers schedule lends itself to this chunk with ease. From October 12 until November 13, the Oilers will play a grand total of 3 games at home.
Scary
Colorado, Calgary and Boston at home break up a 2, 3 and 7 game road trip. The 7 gamer is of course courtesy of the cowboy invasion at Rexall better known as the Canadian Finals Rodeo.
And those road trips? Loads of fun!
2 gamer: Anaheim and the first of a 2 night-home-at-home series with Calgary.
3 gamer: Chicago and Colorado in 2 nights, followed by Vancouver
7 gamer: Nashville. Carolina and Philly in 2 nights. Columbus and Pittsburgh in 2 nights. New Jersey and New York in 2 nights.
Did Lowe pee in the NHL schedule maker's corn flakes? Seriously! 15 games and we play back-to-back nights for 10 of those games!
Scary
The Oilers come into the regular season with special teams all over the map. On one hand, the penalty kill comes in ranked 5th and a power play ranked 21st.
Penalty kill from 2007-08 to 2008-09:
- We are missing the top 2 PKers in terms of minutes with the loss of Jarret Stoll and Marty Reasoner. Brodziak and Horcoff who were 3-4 in terms of minutes as forwards will be required to step up their PK minutes. And don't even mention the drastic cut we may take in faceoff percentage...
Power play from 2007-08 to 2008-09:
- New additions of Cole, Visnovsky and Souray* should be able to boost the percentages. **
*With only 26 games played last season, and none at 100% thanks to a bum shoulder, Souray is a newcomer. The Oilers bought damaged goods in the UFA market.
**Is it the players or the system? All signs point to the system if this power play continues to be in the bottom 10 of the league. How many lifelines does MacT get?
5-on-5. How well can MacT hide a kid line from tough competition? Who besides Horcoff has clear ability on the dot?
Scary
The 3-headed goaltending monster:
Now let's get this straight. I do believe that Garon is better than Markkanen and Roloson is better than Conklin and Deslauriers could be better than Morrison.
Nonetheless, I'm not sure if a 3 goaltender system has been employed by any successful team in the past. Should this be a worry?
Shootouts:
Does anyone seriously believe Garon can go 10-0 in the shootout again? Does anyone serious believe we go 15-4 and afford to go to the shootout in nearly 25% of our games?
And if you answered no to all of those, I find the odds slightly better but still awful that even 10 of those 19 games turn into regulation wins.
My bold prediction out of the gate tells me we flop and flop hard.
5-8-2
I'm an Oilers fan true and true, but I find little confidence taking a look at this squad right now. But, there's a reason the games are played. PROVE ME WRONG!
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entropy19
Messages: 2
Registered: December 2007
Location: Regina
No Cups
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8-6-1 just because...
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Hibernia
Messages: 1008
Registered: October 1998
Location: Sin John's
1 Cup
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| entropy19 wrote on Fri, 03 October 2008 17:35 |
8-6-1 just because...
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just because? Okay. Good call. Seems like a good time to review this thread.
Twitter: @AitchOil
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| Hibernia wrote on Mon, 10 November 2008 19:47 |
| entropy19 wrote on Fri, 03 October 2008 17:35 |
8-6-1 just because...
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just because? Okay. Good call. Seems like a good time to review this thread.
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Wow beauty call entropy19! And great find Hibernia. So is this team better than most thought? Or lucky? Nice to see the boys getting it done - and we're ahead of the Flames!
Oilers Goal Horn
http://skreemr.com/link.jsp?id=6B5D44535654
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Mike
Messages: 4139
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick
4 Cups
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| MyBestGuess wrote on Mon, 10 November 2008 23:01 |
Wow beauty call entropy19! And great find Hibernia. So is this team better than most thought? Or lucky?
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I must admit I didn't expect this kind of record at this point - so I am definitely satisfied with it.
The team though - I think they had a lot of luck in those first couple of games, and outside of the road game in Calgary I didn't really them outright dominate any game.
The Boston game, IMO was the most entertaining game of the year thus far.
Anyway -  for the record. Let's see if we can improve on it in the next 15.
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kornsined
Messages: 42
Registered: September 2002
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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| Mikey wrote on Mon, 10 November 2008 20:12 |
| MyBestGuess wrote on Mon, 10 November 2008 23:01 |
Wow beauty call entropy19! And great find Hibernia. So is this team better than most thought? Or lucky?
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I must admit I didn't expect this kind of record at this point - so I am definitely satisfied with it.
The team though - I think they had a lot of luck in those first couple of games, and outside of the road game in Calgary I didn't really them outright dominate any game.
The Boston game, IMO was the most entertaining game of the year thus far.
Anyway - for the record. Let's see if we can improve on it in the next 15.
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Great PPV game. Who said a low scoring game was boring? 
I actually enjoyed the Chicago PPV game just based on the skill Chicago has going for them. It was an entertaining loss.
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huynh
Messages: 556
Registered: September 2002
Location: Calgary
No Cups
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I will take our record right now after this long road trip. There are a lot of things left to be desired, but they now have a lot more home games to figure things out (I hope).
Need to continue to improve on the faceoff circle and allow lesser amount of shots on goal.
JDD is the biggest surprise so far for me. He needs to keep playing and I hope he continues to prove to us that he is our #1 for now and the future.
I am also very happy with Souray and Hemsky's play during this road trip. Great for the team.
Visnovsky is finally picking it up for us as well.
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Mike
Messages: 4139
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick
4 Cups
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| huynh wrote on Mon, 10 November 2008 23:31 |
JDD is the biggest surprise so far for me.
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Same. JDD is for me this year what Brodziak was last year.
And JDD won his pre-season start against the Flames, his regular season start on the road against the Flames, his start against the Devils on the road, his start against the Rags on the road, and he beat the Pens 4-0 on the road (too bad Garon spotted them 5)
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oilerinvan
Messages: 1900
Registered: September 2007
Location: Vancouver
1 Cup
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| huynh wrote on Mon, 10 November 2008 20:31 |
I will take our record right now after this long road trip. There are a lot of things left to be desired, but they now have a lot more home games to figure things out (I hope).
Need to continue to improve on the faceoff circle and allow lesser amount of shots on goal.
JDD is the biggest surprise so far for me. He needs to keep playing and I hope he continues to prove to us that he is our #1 for now and the future.
I am also very happy with Souray and Hemsky's play during this road trip. Great for the team.
Visnovsky is finally picking it up for us as well.
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I agree with your whole post. Some errors of weakness for sure, but there are some significant positives to build on.
I would add that I would like to see some improvement on special teams, but for the most part I think this team has "good bones" and if they continue to come together, they will be a very tough team to play against.
If Cole, Penner, and Gagner get going things will be even better. Cole and Penner are both contributing. Cole is apparently a PP creating machine (best in the NHL statistically?)and Penner must be doing something right out there with a +6 (best on the team). Gagner... if this stint on the first line does not work out, he should at the least join Nilsson on the 4th line (getting 4th line minutes).
Brodziak is becoming one of my favourite Oilers. I hope we lock this guy up for a good contract after this season. He brings a lot of game every night. Especially when given the linemates and opportunity.
JDD looks very promising. He is just so big, and so far has a perfect disposition for goal. That is of course easier now with things going well. It will be interesting to see how he reacts after he gets lit up and yanked (and he will eventually).
Hemsky has had a slow start, but he is on fire now.
Souray is just awesome so far. He is everything you could want in a D-man: big, tough, mean, racks up points, plays solid D, great on the PK, produces on the PP... fantastic. If Visnovsky does continue to improve (especially defensively) our top and bottom units will look good. Staios is making a lot of people eat crow (and I am sure most of those people would eat it gladly) and Strudwick has been a great bottom pairing guy.
Gilbert and Grebeshkov are producing decent numbers (7 and 5 points respectively), but they are getting killed on the +/- (-6 and -5 respectively - the worst two on the team).
I really like the look of the lines to finish as well. Cole, Penner, Pisani and to certain degree Horcoff have returned to their more appropriate/comfortable positions. I like being able to role the 4 lines. We all know what having a productive fourth line can do for the team's winning percentage. I like MacIntyre and all, but especialy if Moreau, Souray, Strudwick, Staios, and Stortini are out there and continue to send immediate messages, I would prefer to role 4 with no "enforcer".
Horcoff and MacIntyre rule.
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Marc
Messages: 665
Registered: July 2008
Location: Michigan
No Cups
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| entropy19 wrote on Fri, 03 October 2008 16:05 |
8-6-1 just because...
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Omg, how did you do that?
"Third? Not third in the West, either? Overall? I think that... well. marijuana's legal in some areas." Whitney on Oilers being ranked #3 by SI
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Lets no get carried away with JDD guys, he's played a couple of good games in a row and is now a real prospect but he can just as easily have a bad game or tow and we will be back to the next guy in line.
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dkb19
Messages: 320
Registered: June 2007
Location: Calgary
No Cups
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I need you to pick my lottery numbers 
5 Cups and counting.
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Mclovin
Messages: 306
Registered: September 2007
Location: City of Champions
No Cups
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Wow, it's like he took the words right out of your mouth...
| Gunn wrote on Tue, 14 April 2009 15:07 |
McLovin: 1
Oilfans: 0
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BleedOil
Messages: 393
Registered: May 2002
Location: Regina
No Cups
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Gotta agree with you.
They may even sit at 4-9-2. I just feel like the expections may be too high in the organization, and they may come out playing like they just need to show up to win. It hasn't seemed like there has been much urgency with this team through the preseason and it will carry through into the regular season.
And god forbid that there is an injury or two. Then the excuses will be there why they aren't doing well.
Question is, if the expectations are high, and they come out looking mediocre, would there be any kind of shakeup? Especially with one owner making the decisions.
"One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane"
--- Nikola Tesla
People who have responsibility without rights are slaves. People who have rights without responsibility are leeches.
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The big question is after what game does MacT blow a gasket and go postal on a member of the press? It was pretty early last year when he went after Rishaug for having the audacity of asking about the lousy pp and he got treated with kit gloves by the media for the rest of the year.
Yeah the schedule blows. When it first came out I was shocked at how stinky it was.
The good thing? It will tell us quickly about this team. If they tread water around 500 during that time then we can expect them to make that long awaited next step up the ladder. If they flounder then they are the same team as they were the last 8 years, they will have a new excuse though for poor performance I don't think we have used 'schedule' so far as a reason for a medicore record.
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goalpost
Messages: 330
Registered: March 2007
Location: Edmonton
No Cups
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Right on BR.
Good, bad or in between the schedule is outside of the control of the Oilers, but what is in their control is to play good hockey on a consistent basis so that they don't pile on the losses at the beginning of the year requiring an extensive winning streak at the end of the year to make the playoffs.
I don't think that expecting the Oilers to come out 0.500 is unrealistic or too tall an order, especially for a team that should expect to make the playoffs this year.
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PrimeBane
Messages: 125
Registered: December 1999
Location: Stuck in Calgary
No Cups
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My 2 cents
People are making way too much of the 3 goalies.
It seems pretty straightforward to me: Garon starts unless he completely falters. Roloson backs him up. Deslauriers learns how to make popcorn and waits for an injury. The only this that really bothers me is the fact the extra goalie takes up a forward spot.
The start to the season has me worried as well... but if the team can come out above .500 it will be a tremendous confidence boost.
As for the shootouts, I'd like to think the team won't be in as many... the firepower is there to win in regulation or OT.
I am a little worried that all the fluff about winning the divisions is going to the player's heads... but should this team come together, they're going to be a thing of beauty to watch.
I remain cautiously optimistic at this point, but have no plans for parade routes.
Twitter: @PrimeBane
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bigEfromGP
Messages: 1916
Registered: July 2006
Location: GP, AB
1 Cup
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| PrimeBane wrote on Fri, 03 October 2008 14:25 |
My 2 cents
People are making way too much of the 3 goalies.
It seems pretty straightforward to me: Garon starts unless he completely falters. Roloson backs him up. Deslauriers learns how to make popcorn and waits for an injury. The only this that really bothers me is the fact the extra goalie takes up a forward spot.
The start to the season has me worried as well... but if the team can come out above .500 it will be a tremendous confidence boost.
As for the shootouts, I'd like to think the team won't be in as many... the firepower is there to win in regulation or OT.
I am a little worried that all the fluff about winning the divisions is going to the player's heads... but should this team come together, they're going to be a thing of beauty to watch.
I remain cautiously optimistic at this point, but have no plans for parade routes.
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I think the worst thing you could do to a goalie who is still developing is to sit him out an entire year "making popcorn". Chances are it'll ruin him or at the very least, you have stalled any development he was making for an entire year.
There is no simpler way of putting it: the 3 goalie system doesn't work. Nobody had a bad thing to say about Markannen, Morrison or Conklin prior to that 3-goalie season, but look how things went down. Absolute trainwreck. Putting cold goalies in for the shootout. Swapping out the back-up on a nightly basis in the playoffs.
The only way that the 3 goalie system could work for us this year is if one of the three gets a long-term injury. Which isn't actually the system "working" but just plain, dumb luck.
| CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:17 |
| CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:00 |
The president thinks he has the ideal male body.
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It's hard to disagree that he has the ideal male body.
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Rekkin
Messages: 328
Registered: September 2003
Location: Halfway 'tween Heaven and...
No Cups
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Long term I agree, the 3 goalie system is not the way to go but in the short term with all those back to back games I actually don't mind carrying an extra. Keep em all well rested and see who shows up, even just showcasing Roli for a potential trade. It's gonna be a rough go of it though, if we can play .500 hockey I'd consider that a great success. However, due to new faces and developing chemistry excuses MacT will be safe until at least halfway through the season and only then if we are in the basement.
I'm thinking 4-9-2 but hoping for 6-6-3.
The people you are sure are wrong are just as sure that you are wrong. The only difference is they're wrong. - God @TheTweetOfGod
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15 games into the season and we are 8-6-1 after 12 road games is pretty good.
I also have to think that the Oilers coaching staff really likes what Deslauriers has done so far on and off the ice. I know he is a rookie but he may be the #1 guy before the season is done if he keeps putting in solid efforts like the last 2 nights.
I also think Garon (who has a great chance to be a #1 here) is blowing his chances to be the man. He has shown great flashes, but when he has been off he has been terrible.
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Mclovin
Messages: 306
Registered: September 2007
Location: City of Champions
No Cups
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I don't think we have significantly altered our roster enough to not be able to pick up where we left off last season.
Goaltending won't be that big of an issue. Garon will most likely play the most games this season, and Roli is no complete pushover.
Looking at the names we have in our lineup, we stack up pretty well against the majority of our opponents. The only things I'm worried about are winning the faceoffs on the PK (or well....any faceoff for that matter), and the chemistry of the lines - this could potentially be our worst problem.
10 games are played on a back to back basis, and you're right, that sucks...
That said, I'm going to play the faith card...
7-6-2
It's an attainable record.
| Gunn wrote on Tue, 14 April 2009 15:07 |
McLovin: 1
Oilfans: 0
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Oilerman53
Messages: 551
Registered: September 2007
Location: LLoyd
No Cups
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Pre-season means jack squat in the NHL, I read on here that we went 6-2 last years pre-season and we all know how well that didn't parlay into a good start. I'm going against the mood here and be optimistic and say we come flying out of the gate and go 9-4-2 in the first 15 games.
McDavid just might surpass Gretzky, Lemieux, Orr and heck even Elvis!
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Darth Greene
Messages: 187
Registered: February 2008
Location: E-Town
No Cups
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| Mclovin wrote on Fri, 03 October 2008 14:28 |
I don't think we have significantly altered our roster enough to not be able to pick up where we left off last season.
Goaltending won't be that big of an issue. Garon will most likely play the most games this season, and Roli is no complete pushover.
Looking at the names we have in our lineup, we stack up pretty well against the majority of our opponents. The only things I'm worried about are winning the faceoffs on the PK (or well....any faceoff for that matter), and the chemistry of the lines - this could potentially be our worst problem.
10 games are played on a back to back basis, and you're right, that sucks...
That said, I'm going to play the faith card...
7-6-2
It's an attainable record.
But, but, but, we lost GX. Apparently some people think he is the be all and end all. Oh how could we ever compete without GX. Without him this season is a wash, how did it ever come to this?
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And with the 1st pick overall the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select from the Swedish highschool league: Lars Svendsson.
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ontariooil
Messages: 24
Registered: September 2008
Location: British Columbia
No Cups
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Being on the road so much may benefit this team. Being away from home and together for the first month could build team bonding, these guys will be forced to come together quickly. I think 7 wins is attainable and would be considered acceptable.
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Regulator
Messages: 734
Registered: April 2007
No Cups
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Excellent post MJ, it was kinda like reading a Stephen King novel.....
Yes, this team could really struggle out of the gate. To say we have to win all those 3 home games is a massive understatement. Playing on the road will provide this team with a huge test, especially the kids.
Looking at the lineup vs Calgary tonight, I still don't see when this team is going to play a whole game together. Isn't the last two preseason games meant to give the starting team a run out. If the kids are not working 5/6 games in, suddenly the move to play Penner with them occurs, and he hasn't even played in the same game with them let alone on the same line!
Your fears are my fears, and Oiler fans, it could be a long 15 games.
Only way we get some points from the away games is if this team plays strong defensive hockey, and our special teams shine. I don't like the prospect of entering into a goal spree game with the likes of Chicago, Philly or Pitts, let alone any of the other 'better defensive' teams.
As the boring NHL player would say, let's take this one game at a time, and let's pray that Garon is ready to play saviour.
My prediction for what it's worth.....4-8-4 (including the home opener)
[Updated on: Fri, 03 October 2008 16:10]
| dkb19 wrote on Mon, 20 July 2009 13:05 (re: Horcoff) |
He's like a mastercard comercial, alot of what he does is priceless.
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goffer48
Messages: 345
Registered: March 2006
Location: Edmonton , Alberta
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Tonight's game may give us a better glimpse of what is to be, as far as to how we start out the year. I'd be a tad disappointed if MacT did not , or has not already, blasted the regulars for their poor showing of a work ethic last game. To say it was a faint shadow of the way they finished last year is a .... s t r e t c h.
The back - to - back games are a concern alright; as are the low count of home games to open the first 15 games. I like the opinion stated, that the road games could / will be a opportunity to bond this team away from the scrutiny of our rabid fans.
The 3rd tender problem ? I don't like it either. Garon will be the MAN; Roli the B/U; JDD?? Do they wait for a bit and see how Dubnyk plays in a Falcon's uni before they decide to try & pass JDD thru waivers??? I like our tending except for that.
8 / 5 /2 ..... i hope
6 / 7 /2 ..... realistic methinks.
Then we start to see renewed chemistry
-Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.
-Don't mess with old folks, they didn't get old by being stupid.
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huynh
Messages: 556
Registered: September 2002
Location: Calgary
No Cups
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Do you see management firing MacT if they start out this way? At what point do they say enough is enough with him if things goes badly to start the season?
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Mike
Messages: 4139
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick
4 Cups
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| huynh wrote on Fri, 03 October 2008 19:23 |
Do you see management firing MacT if they start out this way? At what point do they say enough is enough with him if things goes badly to start the season?
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So all you unconditional MacT supporters - if we are around 25th in the league on the PP and well out of the playoff picture with no significant injuries come December - is it then FINALLY enough to can his ass?
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EldrickOnIce
Messages: 126
Registered: September 2002
Location: Camrose
No Cups
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Anything aournd .500 - meaning 15 points in those first 15 will be doing well and set the Oilers up nicely for December/January when they play a lot at home.
I'll side more with MJ/Regulator - 12 points.
And that wouldn't be that bad at all...
Trade Lowe
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I say our systematic failures really show themselves in these first 15-20 games. I guess we will see how much Tambellini/Katz respect the old boys club by how soon MacT is fired. Our pp has enough talent to be top 5 in league. Also we should bring in a guy like Perreault to have an Oates like effect on our kids. Kid line needs to be broken up if their pre-season play continues.
We will have 5-6 wins in our first 15 with 3 OT/SO losses.
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greatgazoo
Messages: 172
Registered: September 2007
Location: Cobourg
No Cups
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Pisani was 4 for 20 tonight on the dot tonight...The Oilers lost 65% of the draws tonight.
Any team that weak on faceoffs, mind you Horcoff didn't play, is going to have trouble controling the puck and it's pretty tough to win when you don't have the puck.
.500 (15 points) after the first 15 is realistic. That's a brutal sked they have. Most teams would be lucky to be .500 after playing 12 of 15 on the road.
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Marc
Messages: 665
Registered: July 2008
Location: Michigan
No Cups
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I think that they will drop their first 2-3 games.
"Third? Not third in the West, either? Overall? I think that... well. marijuana's legal in some areas." Whitney on Oilers being ranked #3 by SI
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pikeyoil78
Messages: 80
Registered: July 2006
Location: Red Deer, AB
No Cups
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I'm forever the pessimist...that way, when expectations are beaten, me be happy!
i don't think pre-season means anything in the long run, but still has to be taken into account as a new season dawns...
rough start on the road....
the Oil go 3-10-2 in first 15 sadly, those 3 wins are in shootout....
with the dismal record, rumours start to circulate about the future of MacT....
Tambo calls press conference to announce...>Esa Tikkanen and Bill Ranford have been hired by the club as MacT assistants to turn things around....and the OBC continues, despite a new figure head in Tambo....
too pessimistic??
With Comrie back on the team, where do I direct my anger now?
GOILERS!
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bigEfromGP
Messages: 1916
Registered: July 2006
Location: GP, AB
1 Cup
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6-6-3, with a major injury to one of our players in that span.
I'll take Ethan Moreau, in the billiards room, with the candlestick, I mean injured shoulder.
| CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:17 |
| CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 09 October 2020 13:00 |
The president thinks he has the ideal male body.
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It's hard to disagree that he has the ideal male body.
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cableguy
Messages: 384
Registered: December 2005
Location: Victoria, BC
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Pretty decent considerin 1/4 of their road games are out of the way, and its only November 10th. On the other hand it would have been nice for a couple of those guys to break their slumps away from the Edmonton fan and media pressure.
Still jaded but we've got McDavid
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OhioOilFan
Messages: 75
Registered: April 2006
Location: Toledo, OH
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Looking back through this thread, Oilfans seemed to have their expectations very much in check. As far as I can divine, these were the predictions:
5-8-2
8-6-1
4-9-2
4-9-2
7-6-2
7 wins
4-8-3
8-5-2
6-7-2
12 points
5 wins w/ 3 SO losses
.500
3-10-2
6-6-3
Ending up at 8-6-1, I think it's safe to say that the Oil have exceeded expectations. While one could definitely argue that their play has been more 6-8-1 than 8-6-1, I think it's a huge step that we're now winning those games we should lose, as opposed to vice-versa.
All in all, I'm optimistic about the team going forward, and impressed by the record after an inordinately tough schedule.
---
I think I am, therefore I am. I think.
-George Carlin
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