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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789143 is a reply to message #789136 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

K.McC#24
Messages: 2827
Registered: March 2004
Location: ALBERTA

2 Cups

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789144 is a reply to message #789140 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3705
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

All depends on if Seattle thought Jones was any good. Looks like a 6/7 dman to me. I'd probably consider taking Russell over Jones if they were both here. At least you know in a 3rd pairing role making just over 1 mill, Russell can play. Who knows about Jones.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789146 is a reply to message #789142 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789147 is a reply to message #789142 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Ugh...I didn't even think about that. If they're offering the condition, I suppose they can't then trade that pick away. Gross.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789148 is a reply to message #789146 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3705
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.

I want the Kraken to take Neal. They won't of course. So I hope and pray they do take Klefbom. Means the Oilers literally lose NOTHING because he won't play.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789149 is a reply to message #789147 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:10

travgwhite
Messages: 47
Registered: November 2009
Location: toronto

No Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Ugh...I didn't even think about that. If they're offering the condition, I suppose they can't then trade that pick away. Gross.

Not saying they shouldn't have retained salary, just saying it wasn't as bad as I initially thought when I read capfriendly and saw we only had 11.5 mil left to get everything done as I had forgotten Klef going on LTIR will add just over 4 mil to that before any possible buyout.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789150 is a reply to message #789148 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:11

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.

I want the Kraken to take Neal. They won't of course. So I hope and pray they do take Klefbom. Means the Oilers literally lose NOTHING because he won't play.

Unless of course he does, and returns to form in which case the Oilers would have lost something very valuable in fact...

I don't trust anything being reported there, because the Oilers media are the only ones saying anything, none of them are getting info direct from Klefbom - always just "someone close to him" - and we know they all carry water for the team regularly.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789151 is a reply to message #789143 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁

This is Oilers fan life.

1) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad (the media provided these even before step 1, and many fans were already prepared and skipped steps 2 and 3)
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789152 is a reply to message #789150 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24

RDOilerfan
Messages: 3705
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:11

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:03

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:01

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:44

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

Prob would have lost Jones to expansion draft anyway.

Now the Oilers lost Jones, someone else to Seattle, a draft pick, the ability to move a different draft pick, Cap Space, and have subtraction by addition in the line up.

Gregor has made the argument that the Hawks don't put a lot of value in Jones because they aren't likely to protect him in the expansion draft. If that's true, then why did they want him in the deal? At worst he's a meat shield for them so that they don't lose someone else.

The Oilers including him has the opposite impact. We don't lose Jones to Seattle now, so someone else is likely to go. If I'm the Kraken, realizing the Edmonton list is pretty weak, I'm taking either Oscar Klefbom and assuming the risk (now THAT is a high risk, high reward move), or the best prospect available. It's fine that Jones was deemed expendable - we had to lose someone. Now we've lost the guy we were already likely to lose (except that without Keith or Larsson, we could have even protected him), and we get to lost someone else too.

I want the Kraken to take Neal. They won't of course. So I hope and pray they do take Klefbom. Means the Oilers literally lose NOTHING because he won't play.

Unless of course he does, and returns to form in which case the Oilers would have lost something very valuable in fact...

I don't trust anything being reported there, because the Oilers media are the only ones saying anything, none of them are getting info direct from Klefbom - always just "someone close to him" - and we know they all carry water for the team regularly.

I don't live on hopes and maybe's. I live in reality. So far nothing I have heard or read says he's coming back anytime soon if ever. I have read what Klefbom said himself prior to surgery and his priority was quality of life with hockey way down on the list. Take it for what it's worth but supposedly Gregor has been told he can't even raise his arm over his heard yet.

So if the Kraken want to roll the dice on a guy who so far its highly unlikely he will play hockey again, please do! It doesn't even sound like it's 50-50. It's grossly in favor of extremely likely he's done. I'd be very happy if they took a potential never will be again

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789153 is a reply to message #789151 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7641
Registered: December 2003
Location: AB Highway 100

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁

This is Oilers fan life.

1a) The Press tell us the Oilers are about to do something crappy
1b) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

You missed the step where the crappy move is sold hard by the press before it happens. I think that helps with step 4.

Eat
Sleep
Make horrifyingly and obviously bad decisions
Repeat

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789154 is a reply to message #789153 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:25

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁

This is Oilers fan life.

1a) The Press tell us the Oilers are about to do something crappy
1b) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

You missed the step where the crappy move is sold hard by the press before it happens. I think that helps with step 4.

Eat
Sleep
Make horrifyingly and obviously bad decisions
Repeat

Edited with a note on stop 4. Media provides step 4 fuel before step one, and many fans skip steps 2 and 3 because they were already mentally prepared (this is called Kurt Leavins Syndrome).

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789155 is a reply to message #789149 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:25

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:10

Not saying they shouldn't have retained salary, just saying it wasn't as bad as I initially thought when I read capfriendly and saw we only had 11.5 mil left to get everything done as I had forgotten Klef going on LTIR will add just over 4 mil to that before any possible buyout.

Here's the thing. Including Klefbom's LTIR, they had about $20MM to play with.

- Larsson (assuming he signs) is probably $4-5MM
- Khaira is $1-1.5MM
- Yamamoto is $2-2.5MM
- Smith (assuming he signs) is $2-3MM
- The above totals to 9-12MM

That gives you 12 forwards including Turris who you most likely have in the minors. It gives you 6 defencemen including Lagesson. So we need three other players still, and we have some big holes to patch - top 6 winger, #3C, one more depth defenceman, potentially another goalie.

We still have those holes, but instead of 8-11MM to deal with them (which was already pretty skinny) we now have $4-7MM. If you assume you can't get another true top six forward for less than $5MM per season, then we're scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill out the other positions or it forces us in to buyouts for Neal and Koskinen. That would free up cap hit now, but it costs us in the long run because we'd have even more dead cap space. As of right now, we have $2.25MM dead cap, which is the least we've had in ages (and you can sign a pretty good depth player for that amount if you're diligent).

Keith's contract also is a pain next year when suddenly we have Nurse, Puljujarvi and Bear all free agents.

The fact is, cap space is really at a premium, especially in a flat cap world. Having some gives you more flexibility to add to the roster and there's less competitors for free agents (especially if you shop wisely after the opening day of free agency) because less teams have that flexibility in a flat cap.

I don't think we can adequately patch all the holes here, and so we're going to take a flawed team in to the season again next year and hope that we can fix it on the fly while tiptoeing around the limits with LTIR.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789156 is a reply to message #789155 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:29

Dragon_Matt
Messages: 710
Registered: January 2009
Location: edmonton

No Cups

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789158 is a reply to message #789154 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:31

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:25

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:24

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:22

K.McC#24 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:55

nullterm wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:07

travgwhite wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 13:01

Isn't this basically a Klefbom replacement who will go on LTIR? Along with Jones money going out the cap is almost a wash? So basically Keith for a 3rd. Or am I missing something?

Pretty much.

I was against it, but now that it's done, I'm not gonna cry over moving a 6/7 dman to fill a hole in our top four. It's done, time to move on.

👍👍 100%, and you're better for it.

I find that long term anger over moves by the Oilers, ranging from questionable to outright stupid, adversely affects my mental wellbeing. Yesterday was not a good day for Ken Holland, I don't think.....but I've basically talked myself into being over it because I have zero influence as a tier 2 minion. Covid19 and coping has been a big part of me cutting back on my anger I think....its just shorter term venting for the most part..😁

This is Oilers fan life.

1a) The Press tell us the Oilers are about to do something crappy
1b) Oilers do something crappy
2) People all realize it's crappy
3) People all realize they have no control over what the Oilers do and can't help but to still be hopelessly invested in hoping the Oilers finally do something good
4) Various arguments are created to rationalize why this crappy move might not be that bad
5) Large amount of fans accept the arguments to put it all behind them
6) Oilers continue to fail

rinse repeat.

You missed the step where the crappy move is sold hard by the press before it happens. I think that helps with step 4.

Eat
Sleep
Make horrifyingly and obviously bad decisions
Repeat

Edited with a note on stop 4. Media provides step 4 fuel before step one, and many fans skip steps 2 and 3 because they were already mentally prepared (this is called Kurt Leavins Syndrome).

And just to note, I'm not claiming any high ground here. I do it too. My rationalizing of Hall for Larsson is immortalized on this site as I desperately searched for statistics to suggest Larsson could still fulfil something close to his 4th OA potential. Looch signing. Eberle trade. Schultz trade. Lots of examples.

We're all trapped on this slowly sinking ship and need a boost here and there to still find some way to be hopeful :)

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789160 is a reply to message #789126 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:46

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3911
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

3 Cups

inverno76 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:18

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 11:28

So what if the option were Larsson or Barrie on RD for similar contracts.. who would you take?

Tough call. I went Larsson only because Barrie holds Bouchard back, who I think can achieve similar numbers to Barrie if given the opportunity. Larsson also adds some physicality, but I still do not trust his wonky back.

Yeah I know, it is tough, Larsson playing like he did last year (I thought he really improved from the previous couple of years) would be a solid compliment to Keith, but what if he slides back to what he was previously.. Barrie, not great defensively, where would he play with Nurse or Keith? If Nurse, then Keith gets Bear? Not a good combo IMHO. Actually Bear playing top 4 is a worry for me in general, unless Bouchard can play top 4, which I doubt at this point.
If Larsson is signed, who is #1 RD with Nurse? Bear? That is scary, Bear took a few steps back last year, didn't take off season training very serious after he signed his extension, thought he was a made man.. not a good sign, indicates a lack of dedication to getting better, which as a 2nd year player he needs try to do, get better, every day, like a pro.

I picked Larsson over Barrie..

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 16:48]

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789161 is a reply to message #788934 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Decent read on Keith's recent performance and just in general how this is a very typical Oilers move. They can't stop talking about Keith's past accomplishments. We know this way of thinking well, it was a main topic every time Lowe did an interview for a decade. We hired most of our front office on the principle that having more people with past cups = future success. That's the heart of Oilers culture under Lowe and Katz.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2945847-duncan-keith-tra de-another-example-of-edmonton-oilers-mismanagement

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789162 is a reply to message #789156 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3911
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

3 Cups

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789163 is a reply to message #789161 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 16:54

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3911
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

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Kr55 wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:50

Decent read on Keith's recent performance and just in general how this is a very typical Oilers move. They can't stop talking about Keith's past accomplishments. We know this way of thinking well, it was a main topic every time Lowe did an interview for a decade. We hired most of our front office on the principle that having more people with past cups = future success. That's the heart of Oilers culture under Lowe and Katz.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2945847-duncan-keith-tra de-another-example-of-edmonton-oilers-mismanagement

Well the on the bright side the main skill that puts a former great player out to pasture is his skating and keeping up to, and in to, the play, Keith still has the wheels and acceleration.

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789164 is a reply to message #789162 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 17:00

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

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Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)

I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789166 is a reply to message #789164 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 17:03

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 17:00

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)

I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.

Yeah. Hope no one is expecting Keith to be a stabilizing force on a D pair. His defensive play has been awful. You have to hope he can get the puck moving consistently. Keith is really our gamble replacement for Barrie. I think it's more accurate to say he's taking Barrie's money than Klef's. Klef was out this season and we were right up against the cap+LTIR limit. You can't have Barrie+Keith+Larsson. You can only have 2 of those guys and still have a hope to fix our forward group.

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789167 is a reply to message #789163 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 17:35

clutchlikeeberle
Messages: 251
Registered: April 2012

No Cups

I'm looking forward to the day when you all eat crow. This is a solid move. Overpay? Sure. Keith is a pro. He now has a chip on his shoulder. He will regain form and I'll will put money down we improve next year. Also, guess what. If Keith retires we gain not 5.5 but almost 9 mill in cap space. So the second year could be moot point if he retires.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789168 is a reply to message #788934 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 17:41

Xombie
Messages: 454
Registered: March 2004
Location: E-Town

No Cups

Ahh boys boys boys. We must remember the NHL is a cartel, nothing more. Seriously the dictionary defines a cartel as "an alliance of rivals". The syndicate in Chicago has to compete with some real competition over sport fan dollars, what are we gonna move over to? Watch the Elks? This favour we did Chi-town is good for the essential bigger U.S. market so therefore good for the league, good for the future of the NHL, good for hockey!

Why would you selfishly put your own happiness ahead of the health of the entire cartel? There are tons of potential fan minority groups in urban Illinois. Fans of Oil suffer a bit because we foolishly believe hockey to be part of our culture. Mostly due to our misled parents taking us to "see our first game just like my dad did with me" and hyping up this sport in our formative years. Also hockeys the one activity which some other countries of the world care about that Canada is the best at, so some cultural pride was achieved. Whatever the reason, your interest and patronage is a sure thing. Your money is in the bag, counted already.

There is a mandate to grow the game. The Blackhawks can't suck AND make money recouping a year long shutdown AND drive ratings up for a new U.S. T.V. deal AND coerce minorities out of the Chicago ghettos. The Oilers can suck and the NHL can do all that, while still milking on that guaranteed Canadian cultural cash cow.

fig A)
Stan Bowman: Son of Bowman, Scotty. Best coach of all time they say. Worked with Holland to secure his cup legacy. Who was more instrumental to those Red Wing cups in a non salary cap world, Holland or Bowman? Would Holland even have the reputation enough to be GM of the Oilers right now without Scotty Bowman? Who would be paying their old partner back by helping said ex partner's son years later? DING DING DING Ken Hooooollaaaaaaaand!

Seth Jones WILL indeed be signed in Chicago. There is too much money to potentially be made with a minority star brother act drawing the eyes of minority folks in Chi-City on ESPN. You seriously believe that a few hurt feelings of Oiler fans can stop this? It's not about Ken Holland being autonomous. Kevin Lowe would've done the same thing. McTavish would've done the same thing. Chiarelli would've done the same thing. Steve Yzerman would've done the same deal. Heck if Stan Bowman was dumb enough to ply his trade in the Canadian wilderness he would have been forced to make the same deal. This wasn't a hockey or a GM trade.

The cartel of the NHL is not here to fairly and objectively find which city can hire a manager to manage a group of hockey players in the best manner and champion the best players and/or organizations. The cartel of the NHL is here to make a few guys who were already rich, much richer.

But then again what do I know anyhow? Keith's gonna be great here, just costs too much. Suter would come cheap too, lotsa d man changeover coming.

Larsson is gone-zo. Is it true his dad died while visiting Edmonton? I fear that to be an internet rumour, but if that's true put yourself in Larsson's shoes for just one minute: Swedish guy moves to a foreign country, gets traded to a different country for that teams former star player in a lopsided deal, loses his dad while dad visiting in the third country, then his good friend and teammate's shoulder falls off forcing retirement. Let's let Adam Larsson turn this page in his life and not take it personally as a slight to Edmonton and Canada itself when he signs in like Buffalo or some awful eastern U.S. team. Other possible destination I see is Vancouver...yucky!

Bob Marley and the (Hartford) Wailers.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789171 is a reply to message #789164 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 20:31

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3911
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

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Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:00

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)

I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.

I'll have to disagree on Bear, I was high on him all the way from junior, hoped he'd develop into a top 4, but I think Bear is what you see, he's not quick, he's not big, and doesn't play big, and doesn't make decisions quick enough, not great on offence, he's definitely not a #1 RD, and not even #2 on a contending team, there's a hole in that top 4 D, even assuming Larsson is signed, not sure what they do to fill it.

I agree that the compatible pairing for Keith is not Barrie.

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 20:42]

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789172 is a reply to message #789167 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 20:41

Skookum Jim
Messages: 3911
Registered: March 2006
Location: Burnaby, BC

3 Cups

clutchlikeeberle wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:35

I'm looking forward to the day when you all eat crow. This is a solid move. Overpay? Sure. Keith is a pro. He now has a chip on his shoulder. He will regain form and I'll will put money down we improve next year. Also, guess what. If Keith retires we gain not 5.5 but almost 9 mill in cap space. So the second year could be moot point if he retires.

I agree that Keith will be a good to great, for the 2 years, just the opportunity to get a cheaper cap hit does not appear to be exploited by management, for whatever reasons, and lost the potential to keep more cap to add more/better players, which is the disappointment. Trade result is going to depend on what Holland can squeeze out of the remainder of the cap he has for forwards, goalie(s), and a RD (I think we need one).

One top #1, #2 LW could be filled by D. Holloway, would be a big bonus if he could..

McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks (OK he got one right...) K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789173 is a reply to message #789172 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 22:40

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 20:41

clutchlikeeberle wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:35

I'm looking forward to the day when you all eat crow. This is a solid move. Overpay? Sure. Keith is a pro. He now has a chip on his shoulder. He will regain form and I'll will put money down we improve next year. Also, guess what. If Keith retires we gain not 5.5 but almost 9 mill in cap space. So the second year could be moot point if he retires.

I agree that Keith will be a good to great, for the 2 years, just the opportunity to get a cheaper cap hit does not appear to be exploited by management, for whatever reasons, and lost the potential to keep more cap to add more/better players, which is the disappointment. Trade result is going to depend on what Holland can squeeze out of the remainder of the cap he has for forwards, goalie(s), and a RD (I think we need one).

One top #1, #2 LW could be filled by D. Holloway, would be a big bonus if he could..

We can hope Keith will turn his game around from the last few years. But...I feel like everyone predicting the demise of old man Smith last off-season are owed one here by the Hockey Gods of age regression. Seems like an uphill battle. I know I will be locked and loaded to rip on Keith if he's stick waving and chasing guys around the ice icon_lol

icon_lol

rasta

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789174 is a reply to message #789171 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 23:19

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

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Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 20:31

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:00

Skookum Jim wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 16:50

Dragon_Matt wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 15:29

I have heard that there is a handshake with Larrson for 3.75m to be signed after the expansion draft. Hope it's true. not a bad price for his skillset.

With that cap hit, you can still add some forwards.. although I'm worried about #1 RD even with Larsson signed (I have him at #2 RD with Keith)

I'm not that worried there. I think Bear is better than many in here give him credit for. He's a young defenceman, so there's always growing pains - but he's nearing the point Petry was when we cut bait there - actually a couple years younger still.

And Bouchard should be able to grow a lot if given game time. Ideally he starts in the third pairing but he may be able to move up.

I don't think you can pick Barrie over Larsson now, because from all accounts, Keith is a gambler and needs someone a bit more steady to cover for him. Barrie has never been the defensive conscience of a pairing, and I don't think I'd be in a hurry to put Keith with Bouchard. Maybe Bear, but I think Bear's our best RD, so need him playing up the roster - which we know Keith can't do anymore.

I'll have to disagree on Bear, I was high on him all the way from junior, hoped he'd develop into a top 4, but I think Bear is what you see, he's not quick, he's not big, and doesn't play big, and doesn't make decisions quick enough, not great on offence, he's definitely not a #1 RD, and not even #2 on a contending team, there's a hole in that top 4 D, even assuming Larsson is signed, not sure what they do to fill it.

I agree that the compatible pairing for Keith is not Barrie.

How did you feel about Petry when he was here?

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789175 is a reply to message #789131 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Goose
Messages: 1098
Registered: October 2006
Location: Vancouver

1 Cup

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43

For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.

It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.

Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789176 is a reply to message #789173 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 23:36

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Kurt Leavins with another ridiculous article:

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey /making-the-case-for-duncan-keith-and-how-edmonton-oilers-pl ayers-feel-about-the-trade

Romulus Apotheosis (@romulusnotnuma) is talking about this section tonight on twitter:

Quote:

Some wanted Ken Holland to “squeeze” Stan Bowman for more. But that’s not how the NHL works. This isn’t fantasy hockey where your #1 goal is to fleece your buddy and take home $100 in beer money at the end of the year. Ken Holland may need to do business with Bowman (and with many other fellow General Managers) again. Reputation in G.M.’s circles is huge. If all you ever do is squeeze, after a while they may stop taking your calls. And that goes for all of them. NHL G.M.’s share a symbiotic relationship. They need one another. If all you do is take…after a while, not many will be willing to give. As in business, the best deal is the one that is good for both sides.

I've talked about this before here. I don't think this is just Leavins who believes this - the Oilers actually believe there's a fraternity of GMs, and that they kind of have each other's back. Sure, they hope their team wins, but you know you gotta look out for the other guys too. That's what leads to Bob Nicholson traipsing around asking everyone and their dog for advice and taking it all at face value. To them, you don't want to embarrass a guy in a trade - and if someone else embarrasses you, as Shero, Snow, Yzerman, Bowman and others have, well, aw shucks, I'm sure they'll give one back to us in the future to make up for it, right?

The team doesn't understand cap manipulation or avoidance, because bending the rules to help yourself win isn't very fair and brotherly. They don't understand why anyone bothers with analytics, because if we're all in it for each other, do we really need that edge on everyone else?

The fact is, while there may be another couple bottom feeder teams who also believe this, most of them are laser focused on winning, and they just see the Oilers as an easy mark. Act friendly, "help" them with their GM search, and then take them for anything you can get every time you can and thank the heavens that a team with Connor McDavid on it is so poorly run.

They should understand negotiations better, they should understand leverage better, and they should be out for blood in every trade. Yes, in any deal, there's a certain amount of compromise to reach an agreement, but recognize when another team has their hands tied and you can take advantage of them. Take them for every thing you can. Don't worry about that GM being mad about it. If you embarrass him bad enough, he'll probably get fired for it eventually anyhow. If not, at some point he's going to try to pull the wool over your eyes again and you may be able to take him back to the woodshed a second time. This shouldn't be so hard to understand - but all Holland's bluster at Nugent-Bowman about "not being able to squeeze other GMs" is just wrong. That's his job. If he doesn't understand that, it's time for someone new in the chair who's younger, a little hungrier, and much more focused on winning.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789177 is a reply to message #789175 ]	Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

6 Cups

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43

For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.

It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.

And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:

https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/

[Updated on: Tue, 13 July 2021 23:46]

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789178 is a reply to message #789177 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35

Kr55
Messages: 9612
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton

6 Cups

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43

For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.

It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.

And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:

https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/

So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.

[Updated on: Wed, 14 July 2021 00:36]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789179 is a reply to message #789178 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 01:28

Adam
Messages: 6825
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB

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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 00:35

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:39

Goose wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 23:34

Adam wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 12:43

For what it's worth, I don't hold this against Duncan Keith at all. I wish the guy well, and I hope he has a major bounceback here. It's just not a good bet, and the Oilers pushed in a ton of chips on a bet that is a long-shot but also pays only mediocre return in the best case scenario.

I actually love the conditional pick part from Chicago. That so feels like the icing on the cake. "You know, Kenny, we think this is really giving you the missing ingredient to go from first round sweep to Stanley Cup contender. We're basically gifting you the Stanley Cup, so really, you should upgrade that pick for when Duncan leads you to the promised land." It hearkens back to the extra pick in the Pronger deal, and Lowe telling Burke that he's basically giving him a Cup with that trade.

Maybe the Oilers truly feel that the 'Hawks WERE doing us a solid here...SIGH.

It's not even really about how Keith performs. He could have a decent season here and fit in on a limited role.

It's still a bad deal given that Chicago had to move him, and quickly, and Edmonton held all the cards. Holland talking about the price being significantly higher if they were going to get Chicago to retain salary is asinine. Chicago had zero other options. Their choices were turf the deal and protect Keith, or accept whatever the Oilers were offering. The problem here is that Holland heard that Keith was available, decided he wanted him and was willing to pay basically any price to get him.

And not only that - instead of negotiating and grinding Chicago - they started trying to position this for the fans in Edmonton!!! What a gift to Bowman. When those leaks happen, they have to know there's only one place that can come from. and the marching orders were so clear to media guys who got the leak...it just made it clear as day that Holland wanted Duncan Keith and would eventually pay what Chicago was asking.

What a team.

Edit to add - here's Romulus' excellent piece on this. Very well-written and argued:

https://romtable.wordpress.com/2021/07/13/ship-of-fools-leve rage-and-the-cult-of-the-gm/

So, what's the theory here? Holland has respect but Bowman doesn't? Because we clearly got taken advantage of and everyone can see it except people that feel compelled to apologize for the Oilers.

Bowman helped get Chia fired by taking advantage of us too, dumping Brandon Manning on us when Chia was flailing. Bowman was desperate to dump that contract and put us to shame. One of the saddest moments of this franchise was McDavid feeling the need to personally call Manning and reassure him he wanted him on the team and felt he would be able to help the team win. Some months later Manning is dishing out racial slurs on our minor league team.

I think Holland just stinks at negotiating, period. Org convinced themselves they HAD to have Keith and Bowman could smell it. Zero respect, even going so far to make us create a conditional pick and tie our success to Bowman possibly getting more. Zero conditions for us on anything based on how much Jones plays. Not a penny of salary retention, nothing. Zero respect at all, just embarrassment. A hit and run. And we'll happily take his call again the next time he wants to dump a contract, I'm sure.

I think the theory is that the Oilers feel they're in this league of gentlemen, where their teams play each other hard, but the old boys really just respect and help each other. Things not going your way? Don't worry about it ol' chap, it'll turn around soon. It's just the cyclical nature of the game.

Some of those rules of engagement definitely exist (although why is anyone's guess). As Romulus points out, the anger at the Oilers over the offer sheets was palpable and real. However, the idea that you can't embarrass or take advantage of your opponent's weakness? I don't know that there's anyone else approaching things that way other than the Oilers.

It actually explains a lot. You don't need analytics if you're all buddies and it's going to be your turn eventually. That kind of edge over the other guys just isn't really important. And you should be able to leak things to the media in order to shape fan response all you want. After all, the other team's GM isn't going to take afvantage of that. That would be unfair!

It comes down to the question - are these guys really playing to win? I don't think Holland is.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
~~#FireLowe~~ #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789180 is a reply to message #789167 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 06:49

Mike
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Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

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clutchlikeeberle wrote on Tue, 13 July 2021 20:35

I'm looking forward to the day when you all eat crow.

The problem is that there is absolutely no crow to be eaten regardless of outcome. Even if Keith turns back the clock and puts up 100 points, wins the Norris and leads us to a Stanley Cup, this will still have been one of the worst trades in our franchise's history.

We held absolutely every single card. The pressure was on Bowman to figure something out for this offseason, and we provided him a solution that I'm sure he wouldn't even have dared dream was possible. From the CHI side, this would have been one of those proposals that would have been laughed off as completely unrealistic.

They had no options here. They were going to be forced to protect him or buy him out. He wasn't waiving for anyone but the Oilers or Canucks. We just had to stand pat and either sign him for $1M after he was bought out, or wait for Bowman to come back with a pick, salary retention and maybe a contract going back. Maybe a deal with a 3rd team to reduce the cap hit...

That article Adam linked - they mention a similar situation with Marleau and the Leafs. Carolina didn't PAY Toronto for their bad contract. Toronto PAID Carolina a 1st round pick to take him.

I maintain that taking all factors into account, this is one of the worst trades in franchise history. With this, I doubt we see a Cup in the McDavid era. I feel it's that bad.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789186 is a reply to message #788934 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 08:35

Oscargasm
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A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789188 is a reply to message #789186 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 08:46

RDOilerfan
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Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 08:35

A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

Jones is top a guaranteed top 4. Ask Adam, he knows.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789189 is a reply to message #789188 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 08:57

CrusaderPi
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RDOilerfan wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 08:46

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 08:35

A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

Jones is top a guaranteed top 4. Ask Adam, he knows.

Have you read anything in this thread?

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789191 is a reply to message #789186 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 09:09

Mike
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Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

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Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 11:35

A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

Again - that is not at all the issue. I haven't watched Keith play, but I assume he is still an NHLer. As such, in a vacuum, Jones and a 3rd for Keith would be fine. But it's not in a vacuum. The dollars matter. The timing matters. This is the definition of an unforced error. No retention or no salary going back? No deal. I'm betting the Hawks would have bought him out.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789197 is a reply to message #789191 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 09:48

Oscargasm
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Mike wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 09:09

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 11:35

A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

Again - that is not at all the issue. I haven't watched Keith play, but I assume he is still an NHLer. As such, in a vacuum, Jones and a 3rd for Keith would be fine. But it's not in a vacuum. The dollars matter. The timing matters. This is the definition of an unforced error. No retention or no salary going back? No deal. I'm betting the Hawks would have bought him out.

I’d wager there wouldn’t have been a scenario they’d have bought him out. I’d also wager that Edmonton wasn’t the only team they were talking with. Yes, the market for him based on his desires was quite limited. But I’m at peace with how it came down as it makes the oilers better for this window that.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789203 is a reply to message #789197 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 10:53

CrusaderPi
Messages: 7641
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Location: AB Highway 100

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Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 09:48

Mike wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 09:09

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 11:35

A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

Again - that is not at all the issue. I haven't watched Keith play, but I assume he is still an NHLer. As such, in a vacuum, Jones and a 3rd for Keith would be fine. But it's not in a vacuum. The dollars matter. The timing matters. This is the definition of an unforced error. No retention or no salary going back? No deal. I'm betting the Hawks would have bought him out.

I’d wager there wouldn’t have been a scenario they’d have bought him out. I’d also wager that Edmonton wasn’t the only team they were talking with. Yes, the market for him based on his desires was quite limited. But I’m at peace with how it came down as it makes the oilers better for this window that.

I have a problem simply assuming this.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789205 is a reply to message #789191 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 10:58

mightyreasoner
Messages: 508
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton

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Mike wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 09:09

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 11:35

A 6/7 dman and a guy who’s maybe going to crack your lineup in 4-5 years in that draft pick for Keith who can still play in your top 4 during your teams window? Cmon Oilfans. Blow the torches out.

Again - that is not at all the issue. I haven't watched Keith play, but I assume he is still an NHLer. As such, in a vacuum, Jones and a 3rd for Keith would be fine. But it's not in a vacuum. The dollars matter. The timing matters. This is the definition of an unforced error. No retention or no salary going back? No deal. I'm betting the Hawks would have bought him out.

Huge opportunity cost too. Oilers likely took themselves out of contention for better players and really handcuffed their ability to go after higher calibre players this offseason.

More than the player itself, it's really everything around the deal that is the problem, though I do have my worries about the player himself still too.

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Re: Duncan Keith to Oilers [message #789207 is a reply to message #789205 ]	Wed, 14 July 2021 11:03

Mike
Messages: 1067
Registered: August 2005
Location: Moncton, New Brunswick

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mightyreasoner wrote on Wed, 14 July 2021 13:58

though I do have my worries about the player himself still too.

The scary/sad thing is that I do as well, just that it is far down the list of reasons I hated this trade.

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